Comments for "Evening Summary and Open Thread"

tanaw says:

first?

tanaw Tue Mar 31 22:00:21 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Repost of earlier question...

Of the multiple Unemployment rate levels (U-1...U-6), which is closest to tracking what was tracked during GD in '29 onwards?

Thanks.

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:06:59 2009 CDT #

campbeln says:

I've read a number of times here and elsewhere that U-6 is a fairly close analogy to that used in GD1 era. I've never looked it up to verify though, just always figured the mob wisdom was correct (and how coudl THAT ever go wrong ;)

Cn

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campbeln Tue Mar 31 22:37:50 2009 CDT #

Max says:

Complex system failure, illustrated:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0tMhlhnga0

Max Tue Mar 31 22:07:42 2009 CDT #

Maximus says:

Regarding your Obama post....

pictures and videos paint TRILLIONS of words (in today's figures)....

http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/

History is an amazing guide, but we need to be prepared for things to happen faster than they ever have....

Maximus
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/

Maximus Tue Mar 31 22:07:51 2009 CDT #

garrisons2 says:

A couple of general comments, CR great work on the charts and data, you can really churn it out quick.
Nemo, keep up the levity, almost snorted out my soda on the request for more words
and finally...we are in deep do do, and it's gonna get worse....why is the government, both Dems and Reps think the answer to our overleveraged problem is more leverage? I'm confused.

garrisons2 Tue Mar 31 22:10:32 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Dems and Reps think the answer to our overleveraged problem is more leverage?"

When all you have is a hammer...

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Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 22:15:20 2009 CDT #

campbeln says:

"When all you have is a hammer..."

Everyone gets screwed?
Man, those idiots in congress are dumber the I thought!

Cn
[repost thanks to js-kit munchies]

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campbeln Tue Mar 31 22:49:34 2009 CDT #

First time poster says:

Every time he writes "Best to all," my stomach drops.

First time poster Tue Mar 31 22:11:52 2009 CDT #

Br\'er Dawg says:

When CR writes; "Best to all" it is a subtle hint that this is as good as it gets.

Br\'er Dawg Tue Mar 31 22:15:02 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Every time he writes "Best to all," my stomach drops.

---------------------------------------------------
Okay, then ask him to replace it with "Party on, folks! We're screwed!"

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:15:52 2009 CDT #

First time poster says:

Yeah, at least we'll get to laugh at the end of reading a post full of bad news!

Parent Post

First time poster Tue Mar 31 22:18:29 2009 CDT #

Bob Dobbs says:

Hey, get your hot California state worker layoffs right here....

Not exactly true; I work for the UC system, which is sort of a state agency but not exactly. 15 layoffs (17 positions) today in a department of 105. Since this is a UC campus, there's no coordination between departments; plenty of others haven't made their announcements yet. But it'll happen.

Department management was suitably chastened during the announcement, which coincided with a reorg; but they got their feet back under them enough by meeting's end to exhort us to continue to maintain high quality and work even harder, do more with less, rah rah. Yeah yeah, we need the jobs so we'll keep a straight face. But we WILL give you the eyeball. And hardly ask any questions.

But if all the appropriate state propositions don't pass in the May special election... they'll be back for more.

Bob Dobbs Tue Mar 31 22:16:13 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Well, the New York Times threw in the towel today: large color ad for ExxonMobil (of course proclaiming their Green commitment) on the front page.

Desperate move, certain to backfire. CR how about a sports section?

1 currency now [yogi] Tue Mar 31 22:18:54 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Seriously CR, do you ever want to just smack somebody? Doesn't this just make you just a little nuts?

Do you ever find yourself on one of your little desert hiking jaunts muttering about "Born and bred dopes"? (Yes, folks, that was an OMFG moment of clarity)

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:21:47 2009 CDT #

alex black says:

Poor NY Times. She must feel like a hooker who just turned her first trick because she had no other way to pay the rent. And her first John was a rough sodomist.

alex black Tue Mar 31 22:25:26 2009 CDT #

Broward Horne says:

"Dekulakization"

-------------

Kulak, Fran & Ollie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51QfKWTgP7A

Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 22:25:28 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

That video creeped me out. Reminded me of my youth, before cable when it was the only thing on besides soaps. Nothing said, "Go play outside," like K,F&O on TV. That and the stupid red baloon movie from Germany...

Kids today, with PVRs, DVDs, Wii, computers, iPods... I will never be able to relate to the always entertained.

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Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 22:47:12 2009 CDT #

Rufus the doofus says:

I'm pretty sure Red Balloon was French. In fact, I thought part of it was a reference to the German occupation.

Parent Post

Rufus the doofus Wed Apr 1 07:52:49 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

The song, 99 Red Balloons was German, IIRC.

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Cinco-X Wed Apr 1 08:02:29 2009 CDT #

lawn grass says:

We will know in a year if we can recover from this worsening economy. The rapid drops in a wide range of economic data measures does not have recent precedent.

Is subprime contained?

lawn grass Tue Mar 31 22:25:29 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

If CR's going to have a sports section, how about an advice column from Jas?

"If he refuses to pay cash for the ring, then tell the Born and Bred Dope that he's a debt slave to the banking cartels and you refuse to sire a suckling dope..."

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:25:47 2009 CDT #

the poster formerly known as nitpicker says:

BOLMFAO!!!!!

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the poster formerly known as nitpicker Tue Mar 31 23:17:20 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Is subprime contained?

---------------------------------

BWAhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah...snerk...gotta control myself...bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha...

*ahem*

No.

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:28:01 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Yogi:

Couldn't the NYT at least have held off running the ad until tomorrow?

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:29:48 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

CR how about a sports section?

Uh, yogi, I can't imagine anything more antithetical to economic analysis than a sports section; hence my handle.

CR has his area of competitive advantage; so do each of us.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 22:30:17 2009 CDT #

ATM card and $19 in the bank says:

Re: Kukla Fran and Ollie video

I just had a horrible premonition of Broward getting thrown out of the sex club because he brought hand puppets.

ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 31 22:30:24 2009 CDT #

crispy and cole says:

Larry Summers drives a 1995 Mazda:

http://www.laobserved.com/biz/2009/03/obama_folks_drive_fo.php

crispy and cole Tue Mar 31 22:32:00 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

Isn't a Mazda almost a Ford? But with better performance and reliability?

Parent Post

Cinco-X Wed Apr 1 07:23:25 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

CR has his area of competitive advantage; so do each of us.

Clearly, mine is not in linking the number of the subject and the verb.

That should have been "so does each of us."

My entry to commenting thus appears not unlike Kramer's entry to Jerry's apartment.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 22:34:21 2009 CDT #

debtinator says:

Boyah, Jerry!

Parent Post

debtinator Tue Mar 31 22:41:02 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

ATM/$19:

LOL.

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:35:27 2009 CDT #

Feckless Ness says:

Homedad, you're on a roll tonight. If I'd had a Mimosa in hand, I'd now be sotted by it. Get it? Besotted?

Best I can do. So sorry.

Feckless Ness Tue Mar 31 22:39:32 2009 CDT #

Feckless Ness says:

Hey! Where's my CRBotted Haloized thread? I demand Haloization!

Feckless Ness Tue Mar 31 22:41:15 2009 CDT #

Broward Horne says:

"I just had a horrible premonition of Broward getting thrown out of the sex club because he brought hand puppets"

----

More likely an award for creativity.

http://www.sexpositiveculture.org/events/zevent.2009-01-18.5167522314

Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 22:43:40 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

Since this is an Open Thread, it's hard to go OT, but I'll try:

<h1>FDA cracks down on unapproved narcotic painkillers</h1>

WASHINGTON – The government ordered 14 unapproved narcotic painkillers off the market Tuesday, prescription versions of potent morphine, hydromorphone and oxycodone. . . . .

The move is part of the FDA's years-long attempt to weed out thousands of prescription drugs that sell despite never being formally approved by the health regulatory agency. Many entered the market decades ago, before federal law required such approval.

Wait a minute, we've been selling unapproved narcotics for decades now.

And people still wonder whether we should legalize marijuana?

Maybe it's takes Mexican drug gangs to bring us to our senses.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 22:45:35 2009 CDT #

campbeln says:

I've been thinking about the idea of "paying government works to dig holes, and paying other government workers to fill those holes back in" approach to "stimulus" but then this came back to mind:

http://www.satellite-sightseer.com/id/1426

Above is satellite photos of 4500+ military planes in mothballs/for spare parts at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ.

Anyway, isn't this just the hole digging/filling thing? Is that what we've really been doing all these years? I've tried to find something simular for the Russians will little success (400+ tanks in Afghanistan was the closet I got).

Anyway, just food for thought.

Cn

campbeln Tue Mar 31 22:47:16 2009 CDT #

Feckless Ness says:

</i>Sunday, January 25th, 2009, 6:00pm - 7:15pm Sex Club Success for the Single Guy

This is a great discussion for guys who really want to work out strategies and tactics for long term success, and want to know how to avoid being... that creepy guy.</i>

BH - maybe you can invite Jas?

Re: the narcotic painkillers - break it to Rush gently.

Feckless Ness Tue Mar 31 22:49:01 2009 CDT #

Fair Economist says:

Of the multiple Unemployment rate levels (U-1...U-6), which is closest to tracking what was tracked during GD in '29 onwards?

U4: Headline + discouraged. Discouraged workers were counted prior to the introduction of the current survey in 1940. From the St. Louis Fed: (pdf warning; page 42):

The instruction to enumerators of the 1940 census specify several instances in which unemployed persons who were not actively seeking work (for example, because there was no work to be found in their occupation in their community) were still to be counted as unemployed (U.S. Bureau of the Census , 1983, section 6, p. 27)

U5 adds people who aren't bothering to look for work even though they think they could find it. U6 adds people who do have work but not full-time. Those would definitely be "out of the labor force" and "employed", respectively, before 1940.

One complication is the status of people on government employment programs. There really aren't any today, so it's not an issue now, but the standard employment numbers for the GD count them as unemployed. By current definition, they'd be employed, which lowers the peak GD unemployment to 22.9% and drastically reduces it from '34 to '40. See the Darby numbers on p. 43 of the pdf I cited above.

Fair Economist Tue Mar 31 22:49:29 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Waiting until tomorrow would have been a stroke of genius for the NYT, but they've never had respect for the absurd.

I'm learning how to create my own front page with all these great Firefox addons, anyway. (Yes, I donate) Stay ahead of the bot, or get swallowed in the Deep Blue sea.

1 currency now [yogi] Tue Mar 31 22:51:18 2009 CDT #

Badger Boy says:

Repost of earlier question...

Of the multiple Unemployment rate levels (U-1...U-6), which is closest to tracking what was tracked during GD in '29 onwards?

----------------------------------------------------

U-6. But it's still apples-to-oranges. My grandfather came of age during GD1 on the family farm. The majority of Americans in GD1 were either still on the farm or grew up on a farm and could go back when the factories closed down. You were still counted as U-6, but you weren't starving or homeless.

Being counted in U-6 today means homeless and starvation.

Badger Boy Tue Mar 31 22:52:38 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Sorry, that's the most blank space I've ever posted.

BWAAAHHHAHHHAHHHHAHHHH

1 currency now [yogi] Tue Mar 31 22:53:36 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Fair Economist:

Thanks for the clarification.

All that I'd been able to find (BigPicture, MarketOracle, etc.) from Google talked about U-6 being worse than what's reported but nothing about which is apples to apples.

Appreciate it.

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 22:59:42 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Red Balloon German? Non, monsieur.

1 currency now [yogi] Tue Mar 31 23:01:04 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

Umm. Regulatory Capture?

Philip Morris’s Support Casts Shadow Over a Bill to Limit Tobacco

On Wednesday, the House is expected to pass a bill that would give the Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate the tobacco industry for the first time, including the power to block or approve new products....

[Philip Morris]’s central role, in fact, is a reason that some antismoking activists worry that the bill is a deal with the devil. Philip Morris’s support is also why other major tobacco companies — none of which back the legislation — see a cunning ploy by Marlboro’s maker to seal the company’s dominant position.

Basel Too Tue Mar 31 23:03:05 2009 CDT #

Rufus the doofus says:

Historically-minded may want to look up THE TRIUMPH OF CONSERVATISM, by Kolko, which
argues that much early 20-th century regulation was a device for discouraging competition.

On this tobacco thing, what happened to the "menthol exemption"?

Parent Post

Rufus the doofus Wed Apr 1 08:03:35 2009 CDT #

MrM says:

It is getting really funny.
Kathleen Sebelius admitted more than $7K of “unintentional errors” in their tax returns for 2005-7.
It does look like an honest mistake:
In a letter to the Senate Finance Committee, Ms. Sebelius said: “In July of 2006, my husband and I sold our home for an amount less than the outstanding balance on our mortgage. We continued paying off the loan, including interest we mistakenly believed continued to be deductible.”
Like one needed additional proof that the US tax code is too complex, too Byzantine (ByzRuins - no disrespect) and needs to be dramatically simplified.

MrM Tue Mar 31 23:03:56 2009 CDT #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:

Thanks for the elucidation, Fair E-; very helpful!

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Tue Mar 31 23:03:58 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Thanks for the elucidation, Fair E-; very helpful!"

That is not very PC! ;)

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 23:27:06 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Good night folks.

Got to head to bed in case I'm up with the sick one again.

He's feeling some better but you never know...

homedad43 Tue Mar 31 23:05:25 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

Being counted in U-6 today means homeless and starvation.

No, Badger Boy, that doesn't seem accurate. I've bragged about being firmly in the U-6 class for over a year now and I'm neither homeloss nor starving.

Fair Economist just posted the definition:

U6 adds [to U5] people who do have work but not full-time. Those would definitely be "out of the labor force" and "employed", respectively, before 1940.

BTW, life can still be good in U-6 world. It's just different.

I'm guessing she said U-4 is the best indicator for GD numbers if one is inclined to compare numbers.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 23:05:50 2009 CDT #

yagij says:

@Feckless Ness:
You could try here until crbot gets unclogged.

yagij Tue Mar 31 23:07:32 2009 CDT #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:

Obvious pump job over in Japan; terrible numbers on the quarterly manufacturing survey, and the market is up 200 plus.

Per MarketTicker forum, they think the Japanese are pumping up the market, as they hinted that they would:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aZtvEGw0xoH8&refer=japan

Hey Ben and Tim, you schmucks; come clean about your pump jobs, like the Japanese, you shysters!

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Tue Mar 31 23:08:47 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Was there discussion today of the interest rate swap time-bomb that Kristina brought up this morning? GS came in first at 1056 % exposure to risk capital.

1 currency now [yogi] Tue Mar 31 23:09:16 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

Like one needed additional proof that the US tax code is too complex, . . . and needs to be dramatically simplified.

No truer words ever spoken.

Having spent some time with the IRC, I can honestly say it is completely unintelligible to the average person . . . who is nevertheless charged with full knowledge of its contents.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 23:10:38 2009 CDT #

Fair Economist says:

I'm guessing she said U-4 is the best indicator for GD numbers if one is inclined to compare numbers.

Correct, but for the record, although I do have a husband, I'm a "he". No offense taken, I understand about default assumptions and so forth.

Fair Economist Tue Mar 31 23:13:18 2009 CDT #

Fair Economist says:

Obvious pump job over in Japan; terrible numbers on the quarterly manufacturing survey, and the market is up 200 plus.

Isn't the national bank of Japan buying stocks now? That's about as obvious a pump as you could ask for.

Fair Economist Tue Mar 31 23:14:47 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

OT:

I continue to lurk but it's been a long time since I posted. For those of you who hold physical PMs, in what percentages do you allocate: i.e. what percent gold/silver, and do you bother with platinum?

Any thoughts? Thnx

Anonymous Tue Mar 31 23:16:44 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

Fair Economist, my apologies. I will endeavor to get the pronoun correct in the future.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 23:19:21 2009 CDT #

Broward Horne says:

"I've bragged about being firmly in the U-6 class for over
a year now and I'm neither homeloss nor starving"

------------

I'm quite happy to be homeless since 2004.
Especially when I read comments like this -

http://katylin.livejournal.com/734711.html

$150 X 12 months = $1800 / year.

Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 23:19:41 2009 CDT #

theotherdeb says:

the question above by "anonymous" re PMs was me.

Darn js-kit

theotherdeb Tue Mar 31 23:24:10 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

BH, I'm almost afraid to ask how you maintain an internet connection if you've been homeless since 2004.

But I can see where it makes asking "you're place or mine" unnecessary.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 23:25:18 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

"you're place or mine"

If Counterpointer were here, he would have cited me for an apostrophe violation.

Clearly it should have been "your place or mine."

Either a tough night or too much whiskey; hard to tell.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 23:27:35 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

WSJ art (possibly subscription required)
"Treasury's Very Private Asset Fund"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123854120033275659.html

Sez basically to participate in buying toxic asset fund, with gov't guarantees,
fund must have $10 B in toxics already under management.

Which excludes practically everyone, except a chosen few, and the bad banks themselves....

Anonymous Tue Mar 31 23:32:23 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Which excludes practically everyone, except a chosen few, and the bad banks themselves...."

Transparency starts when? I am so angered by this I can't see/think straight. Please, please have J. Stewart do a compare/contrast with O's campaign promisies and the back room closed door dealings that are going on...

I would say that I can't wait for O' to cite executive privalage in defence of this, in relation to the (R) getting some karma payback, except for the travesty of the US of A being taken to the cleaners in support of our banker masters.

Even if Rush, were to drive this point home, I'd welcome it for the greater good.

Trustbusting Teddy R. must be spinning in his grave.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 00:24:21 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

I was on my way out to the trial today of Comrade Duch (Doik)... it's being held at a military barracks about 10 km from the airport... passed by the palace and there was a real hub hub going on... some sort of protests. my guy translated, seems those people were upset with the former king Sihanoukville - remains a prince - for pardoning Duch an hour or so before... check the Times and Seth Mydans has yet to report it, probably the trial still goes on, after all... "That's Cambodia, Captain."

duke of con dao Tue Mar 31 23:38:28 2009 CDT #

Broward Horne says:

"BH, I'm almost afraid to ask how you maintain an internet connection if you've been homeless since 2004"

----------

http://b2b.vzw.com/productsservices/wirelessinternet/

I lived mostly in hotel rooms for 2004-2007.
Now I freeload on my parents.
I was hoping to keep a career intact but I've mostly given that up since 2007.
Now I'm just coasting along and waiting for the shooting to start.

Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 23:40:14 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

after hearing that intel decided not to make the long haul out there... I go by tuk-tuk, it's not like Arthur Sulzberger Jr is picking up my tab... [side note: they don't allow cameras in... but allow a few pictures by a press pool guy I thnk AP...

duke of con dao Tue Mar 31 23:41:48 2009 CDT #

energyecon says:

BH,

Don't forget your set of the low end body armor (catchers mask and chest protector?) that CSC recommended for cannibalistic feeding frenzies...

energyecon Tue Mar 31 23:43:30 2009 CDT #

ghostfacedinvestah says:

"Which excludes practically everyone, except a chosen few, and the bad banks themselves.... "

Yup, you don't just want any regular asset manager participating in this sham then spilling their guts on Bloomberg. You need the inside clan, like Bill Gross.

ghostfacedinvestah Tue Mar 31 23:58:04 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

"Treasury's Very Private Asset Fund"

That's sad. It's tantamount to fraud for Geithner to speak of a public-private partnership if the only private entities allowed to bid on the assets (the "fund managers") are those who already have $10B in toxic assets under management. I realize they have spoken of fund managers in the past and that they intended only the very well healed to be considered, but now they seem to have set the parameters so that the people who caused the problem in the first place can apply.

The only fact that would make it less shocking is if smaller investors could particpate in the funds run by the managers without having to pay a premium (or significant management fee) for the privilege of participating. That angle is not mentioned in the WSJ article. Without that element, this would just be a different form of bailout of the big banks.

sportsfan Tue Mar 31 23:58:06 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"The only fact that would make it less shocking is if smaller investors could particpate in the funds run by the managers without having to pay a premium (or significant management fee) for the privilege of participating."

But in evaluating the assets, too many would know the colossal scope of the black hole and it would eventually become public knowlege. Loose lips, sink GS.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 00:10:18 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

From the WSJ:
"Treasury rules also say the $10 billion limit must be comprised of commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities ... (CDOs). But what many private players instead deal in are "CDOs squared" or CDOs secured by other CDOs, which would not count toward the requirement. This, too, will make it harder to take part in the program.
While dozens of banks and insurance companies today hold more than $10 billion in toxic securities, the vast majority are trying to get these assets off their books -- not lining up to buy more. As for asset management firms that hold such a big portfolio -- and are also healthy enough to serve as fund managers -- there is only a small pool, such as Black Rock, Pimco, Goldman Sachs or Legg Mason, as well a titan or two of the hedge fund industry, such as Bridgewater.
"This is ugly," says Joshua Rosner, the managing director of Graham, Fisher & Co., an independent research firm. "As long as they are experienced, there is no rational reason for creating limitations on who becomes a bidder and manager of assets. It doesn't serve the public good, though it may serve those few large firms that appear to have a privileged relationship with Treasury."
We have no idea if Treasury is playing favorites, but it certainly doesn't look good. All the more so given that some of these big players may have consulted informally with the Obama Administration as it was writing the plan. Not to mention that the big asset management companies that are most likely to land plum fund-management jobs are also the ones that have been most vocally praising the Treasury plan."

Not to mention these assholes bought or wrote these toxic assets in the first place.

1 currency now [yogi] Tue Mar 31 23:58:30 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Broward write a great add-on for JS-Kit comments. You'll get more than 10k in donations.

1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 00:00:41 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

I give up. More whiskey, less Geithner is the only path to sanity.

Goodnight.

sportsfan Wed Apr 1 00:01:42 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Yves:

Obama Pushing "Quick, Surgical" Big Auto Bankruptcy Fantasy
Guest Post: Exxon Pension Fund Sues Northern Trust Alleging "Reckless, Massive Losses"

CRbot Wed Apr 1 00:03:39 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

did anyone read this - From Michael Osinski in New York Magazine: My Manhattan Project How I helped build the bomb that blew up Wall Street

Osinski implies that all the action was taking place at Salomon at 55 Water when he worked there... that was where all the back office crap was in my experience... the profit centers were at 2 New York Plaza across the street, that being the trading floor on the 44th along with corp bond research (where I worked) on 41st - ok, maybe not a profit center...

somebody I know at NY Mag told me that story had the heavy hand of an editor...

duke of con dao Wed Apr 1 00:10:29 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

From the comments of the WSJ article How a modern day depression might look:
1930s Ma and Pa Joad driving to California in a broken down Hudson truck to work in the orange groves
2009 Tiffany and Brandon driving a 2-weeks-from-repossession Cadillac Escalade with individual video monitors for the screaming brats in the back seats to the local strip mall for a big-box store liquidation sale

1930 Abandoned farmhouses in dust bowl Oklahoma (with withered wheat dying in the fields)
2009 Abandoned MacMansions in Atlanta suburbs (with mosquitoes breeding in the pools)

1930s Poor nutrition, hunger, weak veggie soup at local Salvation Army
2009 Poor nutrition, obesity, BK Whoppers and Big Macs at the strip mall

1930s Big projects! The TVA, Hoover Dam, aqueducts
2009 Oink, oink! Tattoo removal program, Buffalo Bill Historical Center, Maine Lobster Foundation museum, ad nauseum

1930s Employer of last resort: Civilian Conservation Corps
2009 Employer of last resort: Miami Ink (or the Bangor Lobster Tank)

Anonymous Wed Apr 1 00:10:52 2009 CDT #

the man from nantucket says:

"Buffalo Bill Historical Center"

I live a few miles from that, it's the size of a 2-3 bedroom house. what the heck are they gonna get money and do? if they do get any govt moeny to upgrade or expand, it's armegeddon coming soon.

Parent Post

the man from nantucket Wed Apr 1 00:40:40 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

I believe the fees generated from researchers using the NYT archives will support a few blog editors in consolidating under the NYT brand, but that's about it.

Not bad news, really.

1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 00:11:09 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

1930s Empire State Building built in 18 months
2009 WTC site "work in progress" for 8 years (10 years more to go -- maybe)
1930s Joe Dimaggio
2009 A Rod
1930s Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers; Ella Fitzgerald; Marlene Dietrich; Frank Sinatra
2009 Dancing with the Stars (Tucker Carlson!!); Britney; Paris Hilton; the sanctimonious Bono
1930s Fireside chats with FDR
2009 Obamorations (with Teleprompter) or for you Dems, John Boehner twittering
Hate to be cynical, but we're 20X more affluent this time, but only 20% as dignified and thankful for what we have.

Anonymous Wed Apr 1 00:11:15 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt }
CR: I noticed a comment made on the story that I think is important to the whole CDO story...

"The writer here only told Phase I of the CDO story. In this phase, the tranches were bundles of fairly similar paper by today's standards. There were 2 key points about this phase: default probabilities were estimated on the individual papers (mortgages), a lot of work; and different financial houses had different variations of similar models. That mitigated the composite market risks.

Phase II of the progression followed the publication of a paper "On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach" by David Li at JP Morgan Chase. Basically "Li came up with an ingenious way to model default correlation without even looking at historical default data. Instead, he used market data about the prices of instruments known as credit default swaps. He borrowed a function known as the Gaussian cupola that actuaries used to establish correlation for life insurance. This removed the volumes of tedious work for risk investigation and provided a proven correlation function in an established field. The real cream was the ability to bundle highly disparate types of paper into one bundle because price is price.

The corporate CDO world relied almost exclusively on this copula-based correlation model," says Darrell Duffie, a Stanford University finance professor who served on Moody's Academic Advisory Research Committee. The Gaussian copula soon became such a universally accepted part of the world's financial vocabulary that brokers started quoting prices for bond tranches based on their correlations.

Correlation trading has spread through the psyche of the financial markets like a highly infectious thought virus," wrote derivatives guru Janet Tavakoli in 2006." Everyone used it! The damage was foreseeable and, in fact, foreseen. In 1998, before Li had even invented his copula function, Paul Wilmott wrote that "the correlations between financial quantities are notoriously unstable.
...
As Li himself said of his own model: "The most dangerous part is when people believe everything coming out of it."

When everyone used it, the balloon popped!

Full article Google search "gaussian copula David Li", many entries."

<blockquote>

mshnaya on 03/30/2009 at 11:32pm
</blockquote>

duke of con dao Wed Apr 1 00:14:38 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Yves:

Guest Post: Viva La Vida G20?

CRbot Wed Apr 1 00:17:42 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

The Li formula was on last month's Wired mag cover.

1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 00:23:25 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

What I see

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a6H8r72Ryfs0&refer=currency
Korea Won Gains as Trade Surplus Swells to a Record; Bonds Rise

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abQox0EiBVRk
Corn Plummets 31% as Soybeans Fall 28% in Forecast (Update2)

is a manic depression

EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 00:37:10 2009 CDT #

ghostfacedinvestah says:

"did anyone read this - From Michael Osinski in New York Magazine:"

Yeah, my first thought was of when someone blows up a newstand in Israel and 10 different groups take responsibility.

He is going to have a hard time competing for credit with the dolts at S&P and Moody's with their CDO Evaluator and CDO ROM models.

ghostfacedinvestah Wed Apr 1 00:46:50 2009 CDT #

sdtfs says:

did anyone read this - From Michael Osinski in New York Magazine: My Manhattan Project

CR posted it, but I was too late to add my comment (which I here append):

So the American Council for a Mathematical Economy (ACME) is sending us (Wiley Coyote) another box of technological wizardry. Oooo, I love it when a plan comes together! This is when the Road Runner moves the black spot from the road to the side of the mountain,...Hey, I see a light at the end of the tunnel! It's getting brighter and louder. Louder? Uh-oh.

sdtfs Wed Apr 1 01:07:02 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

Geithner is as angry as Congress, who are as angry as the American people.

You can tell it's true because they have said so many times.

1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 01:08:07 2009 CDT #

CRM says:

I lived mostly in hotel rooms for 2004-2007.
Now I freeload on my parents.
I was hoping to keep a career intact but I've mostly given that up since 2007.
Now I'm just coasting along and waiting for the shooting to start

lmao

come on, it ain't that bad is it? your healthy , right?

CRM Wed Apr 1 01:23:46 2009 CDT #

Effective Demand says:

Btw, In case you guys don't know a lot of big players are ending their foreclosure moratoriums today (March 31st).

http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/03/foreclosure-moratorium-ends-march-31st.html

There are a lot of Southern California markets running low on motivated inventory because of almost continuous moratoriums since mid-July. If we don't get more inventory soon sales will slow (and median price will rise) after the spike reported the next 3 months or so. If we continue to get motivated inventory then watch sales be pretty impressive for So. Cal. considering the economy.

Effective Demand Wed Apr 1 01:43:13 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

U.S. Treasuries eased in Asian trade on Wednesday as investors booked profits on the previous day's gains and awaited Federal Reserve purchases of government securities as part of its effort to keep long-term yields down.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUST25960320090401

Gaming old Benny. HAaahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Anonymous Wed Apr 1 01:45:11 2009 CDT #

Bill Hicks says:

duke of con dao says:
Today, 12:14:38 AM

There is a very good DKOS diary today that disusses this very topic. Highly recommended, without political bias.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/3/31/714809/-The-Most-Important-Financial-Crisis-Article-You-Havent-Read

Bill Hicks Wed Apr 1 01:47:20 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

South Korean court rulings that suspend disputed currency-option contracts pending the outcomes of lawsuits pose a threat to financial stability, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association Inc. said.
District courts in Seoul and Incheon have issued preliminary injunctions in four of 11 cases, allowing companies to halt payments on KIKO, or Knock-In Knock-Out, contracts until final verdicts are delivered, the association said in a statement released in Hong Kong by Business Wire.
“The court has set dangerous precedents disrupting the fundamental right to enforceability of contracts in the country,” ISDA said. “This could expose the country to dampening international investor confidence and in turn increase risk.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=axBr.9K5dCtA

Uh-Oh

Anonymous Wed Apr 1 01:50:12 2009 CDT #

sdtfs says:

come on, it ain't that bad is it? your healthy , right?

You are new here. If you've followed BH's story you'd know that he spends his nights playing pool and having sex and his daylight hours disparaging people who might want to hire him. As I said once before, he's living the life of a Congressman. (Except for the existential guilt about not feeling particularly guilty about the whole situation.) If you want to know more he's got a web page.

sdtfs Wed Apr 1 01:50:59 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

"Nomura took over 8,000 Lehman employees in October, guaranteeing their salaries and bonuses. Lehman paid employees an average of $332,000 in the fiscal year ended Nov. 30, 2007. Nomura’s average pay was $144,000 for the 12 months through March 2008."

bberg

1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 02:00:41 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

More than 500 people who are upset with a plan to change Iowa's tax laws were cleared from a hearing tonight at the Iowa House after they interrupted multiple times.

House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, cleared the crowd at about 8:30 p.m. The decision brought about loud protests as the crowd was escorted from the chambers by Iowa State Patrol officers.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090331/NEWS/90331051

Won't be long and they'll be burning the frigging village.

Anonymous Wed Apr 1 02:14:31 2009 CDT #

Jay D. says:

.................about KIKO...........I know several very profitable LCD companies bankrupted due to their exchange rate hedge.......very stupid gesture........Korean gov. made faulse predictions and actually encouraged small and med size companies to do that......amazing......now they are laughing stock in east asian exchange matkets................

Jay D. Wed Apr 1 02:26:40 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Yves:

Links April Fool's Day

CRbot Wed Apr 1 02:46:31 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Mish:

Commercial Real Estate Limbo; Lenders Ignore Defaults

CRbot Wed Apr 1 02:47:10 2009 CDT #

WAWAWA says:

In a finale analysis; WE ARE FUCKED.

WAWAWA Wed Apr 1 04:14:30 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Wait a minute, we've been selling unapproved narcotics for decades now.

And people still wonder whether we should legalize marijuana?

But now we've done away with it. That's what we do with dynamic or irregular things, get rid of them.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Apr 1 04:33:36 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Ritholz:

Off to L.A.

CRbot Wed Apr 1 04:48:05 2009 CDT #

Ho Lee Kow says:

German Association of Mechanical Engeneering Equipment (Maschinenbau) reports 49% YoY reduction in orders.

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:Ex-Exportmotor-Maschinenbau-bricht-die-Basis-weg/494967.html

Bonjour, tristesse!

Ho Lee Kow Wed Apr 1 04:58:14 2009 CDT #

Jay D. says:

................U.S. Plan Sees Easing of G.M. to Bankruptcy.............

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01bankruptcy.html?hp

...............Section 363 of the bankruptcy code ......................

Jay D. Wed Apr 1 05:09:03 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Ho Lee Cow:
German Association of Mechanical Engeneering Equipment (Maschinenbau) reports 49% YoY reduction in orders.

Looks like it's not just watches where the high end gets creamed during the downside.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Apr 1 05:30:33 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

Actually, capital equipment, and the equipment to make capital equipment get hit the hardest in a recession. I once worked at a company that made transducers for the OEMs in the semiconductor process equipment industry. When the Japanese sensed a semiconductor downturn coming, all capital equipment spending stopped, existing orders got pushed out, and eveyone in the pipeline fell all over themselves, sorta' like a train derailment. And then the rumors of layoff began. I went through several cycles of that, and after 15 years, I still have a bad taste in my mouth from it. I hope I never have to work at a place like that again.

Parent Post

Cinco-X Wed Apr 1 07:30:38 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Bloomberg -

'German Chancellor Angela Merkel may be losing valuable time that General Motors Corp.’s Opel business doesn’t have as she holds out against taking a stake in the unit.' http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=axmg5yypvicE&refer=home

Merkel's time in using government funds to prop up a failed company is running out? Do tell - time always seems to be running out for the bankrupt, as money is always urgently required.

Considering the level of GM's competence in handling the Opel situation to date (basically, none), I assume that GM's American management still thinks that European socialists are an easy mark for a few billion.

Only the bankrupt think they are still in charge of the situation. Apart from the pain, which would not be minor, why would anyone think keeping the current global level of car manufacturing capacity is a wise choice for a national government to invest in? If what is good for GM is good for America, why should Europeans care? The article's tone is remarkably similar to 'buy now, or get priced out forever.'

Putting a bullet in Opel's head is a mercy killing which would be done most regretfully by a representative from VW/Skoda/Seat, Peugot, Mercedes, BMW, Renault, or Fiat. Merkel is in a strange position, needing all the help she can get to retain power in September, but if she has to regretfully let 25,000 Opel workers lose their jobs while retaining the support of a few hundred thousand other German auto workers, I will trust her natural science PhD when doing the political math.

This article, like much coming from the American media, keeps assuming that American interests are overriding. That is no longer true, and will continue to be even less true as time goes on.

The Bloomberg article is strange - it has little to do with German media reports. The German political/business establishment appears united behind the idea that the only way to even begin to keep Opel functioning is to ensure that GM has no say, and beyond its legimitate due as defined by Opel's future owners, no way to pull out money. (And the Opel IP 'assets' GM cleverly transferred to its American operation may end up worse than imaginary property - German resistance to paying GM's price for such IP is very high, and likely insurmountable if GM continues to view such leverage as a tool.)

More classic American style management, likely based on the rock solid belief that Europeans are always patsies when it comes to handing out state funds to prop up ailing companies.

GM's 'success' in handling Saab (remember that dramatic deadline/threat - give us money or else we declare Saab bankrupt) shows that GM's management is as competent in handling European governments as it is making quality products sold at a profit.

Anonymous Wed Apr 1 06:07:27 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

Bernanke and the Greater Depression

The first clear signal that the Greater Depression lay ahead and that there will be no recovering from that came when Bernanke was appointed to the Fed, later to head the Council of Economic Advisor and, finally, when he was appointed the Chair-moron of the Fraud. Bernanke is:

1. A born-and-bred American dope

2. A Baby Doomer and

3. A rogue economist

That is the Triple Crown for the mortician-in-chief of the US economy. Bernanke will bury the US economy! Krugman falls in the same category but he doesn't have the power of destruction that Bernanke does. American system, as people have known it, is finished. All we can do is to watch this old sick system die. We are on the deathwatch.

Jas
</font>

Jas Wed Apr 1 06:17:53 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

Cont…

Economics is all about people’s behavior, including ethics, and not about theories of manipulation put forward by the likes of Bernanke and Krugman. Only dopes have faith in economic manipulation. Manipulation invites crooks! And who can trust free markets operated and regulated by crooks. In summary, we are screwed and must suffer thru until a new system comes into being after lot of destruction of life and property.

Be Safe!

Jas Wed Apr 1 06:18:27 2009 CDT #

Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:

This may have been brought up before, but here's something I don't understand.

Why is the Hummer line in trouble?

They are first and foremost military vehicles, which means GM should be cashing in on the sweet DoD contracts and Hummer should be one of their best performers.

Is GM management so inept that they took a quarantied revenue stream (military contracts) and fu*ked it up by (over)producing civilian models, or is there more to the story?

Bubblisimo Gerkinov Wed Apr 1 06:20:33 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Not the same vehicle. Even the H1 is a strong variant of the military design. H3 is a consumer product "in the style of'. The is US militar procurement, you don't think they wanted to have off the shelf parts or anything, do you? There wouldn't bea way to give a single source contract to General Dynamics Land Systems then.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Apr 1 06:23:17 2009 CDT #

reptillian says:

"In a nutshell: The Obama warranty commitment program sets up special warranty accounts that will be used only if the automaker runs out of money. If that happens, the government will “appoint a program administrator who, together with the U.S. Government, will identify an auto service provider to supply warranty services.” Those accounts will be funded with 125 percent of the expected warranty cost. The automaker will contribute 15 percent and the government 110 percent. The federal funds will come from the Troubled Asset Relief Program."

TARP for car repairs

reptillian Wed Apr 1 06:29:58 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

--
The American system is on a slippery slope with steep angle. How soon to the bottom?

Jas

Parent Post

Jas Wed Apr 1 06:39:25 2009 CDT #

Mean Flurry Kitten says:

"The American system is on a slippery slope with steep angle. How soon to the bottom? "

When California says "screw USofA, this is now Republic of California and the rest of you can go to hell" :)

Parent Post

Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 06:48:11 2009 CDT #

ATM card and $19 in the bank says:

Re: General Dynamics Land Systems

Gave me an idea: punish GS et al by letting the defense contractors fix the CDS/CDO problem instead.

I know, I know... difference with out a distinction; self-dealing under GS just turns into "cost overruns" under GD, but a guy can dream can't he? Plus at this point some of us want to see some actual explosions and demolition. Under TARP and progeny, we'll see nothing but greasy fingerprints on our wallets.

ATM card and $19 in the bank Wed Apr 1 06:51:26 2009 CDT #

ZackAttack says:

Anybody else entertained by the footage of these G20 protests?

The CNBC commentary was hilarious. Some guest they had on explained that he "totally understood their frustration.... They want new cars and the credit's simply not available."

Comprehension fail.

ZackAttack Wed Apr 1 07:15:31 2009 CDT #

Counterpointer says:

Wow, I see the 'postrophe violation code has become self-regulating!

That's gotta be a record for a meme to go from goofy idea to singularity.

I need to get a new handle for work access, because today's going to be hilarious. Roll up, roll up, Barnum and Bailey Presents the Greatest G20 On Earth!

C

Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 07:21:40 2009 CDT #

kharris says:

ADP data are out, and show an acceleration in job loss, instead of the steady, disastrous pace of job loss that had been expected. Given the importance of labor market conditions to housing demand, I wonder if we are going to keep hearing that the bottom is in for sales? It is possible, of course, that the market is so badly distorted that the standard relationship between labor market conditions and home sales has broken down, but we'd need evidence of that.

kharris Wed Apr 1 07:26:53 2009 CDT #

LAM says:

U.S. private sector job losses accelerated in March, more than economists' expectations, according to a report by ADP Employer Services Wednesday.

DP said private employers cut 742,000 jobs in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs.

Economists had expected 655,000 private-sector job cuts in March, according to a recent Reuters poll.

LAM Wed Apr 1 07:29:59 2009 CDT #

Virgil says:

Should be an interesting day for equtities today

Virgil Wed Apr 1 07:32:04 2009 CDT #

Chubby Davis says:

Let's just pop a couple of Vimax ;)

Chubby Davis Wed Apr 1 07:33:28 2009 CDT #

Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AM_General

According to wikipedia ...

"AM General, which remains an independent company and government and military contractor, sold the rights to the Hummer name to General Motors in 1999 but continues to build the vehicles for GM, except for the H3 which is assembled in GM factories."

I don't see the General Dynamics Corporation connection, but it makes a lot more sense now.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov Wed Apr 1 07:38:09 2009 CDT #

Chicago Dude says:

"AM General, which remains an independent company and government and military contractor, sold the rights to the Hummer name to General Motors in 1999 but continues to build the vehicles for GM, except for the H3 which is assembled in GM factories."

On top of that, the military hummer is outdated (the competition to provide a replacement is already underway). The military hummer is not so great against roadside bombs either. Some company in Wisconsin builds a truck for the military that has an underside design that can deflect the blast and protect the soldiers inside. That company keeps taking military market share away from the military hummer.

Parent Post

Chicago Dude Wed Apr 1 07:58:08 2009 CDT #

Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:

"Isn't a Mazda almost a Ford? But with better performance and reliability?"

Mazda and Ford have been swapping parts and complete cars and trucks since 1970.

So has GM. Go to GM.com it is thier corporate website and look at world wide operation. They like Ford are not a Domestic only company and do the same rebadge around the world.

What you hear in the press and and talk is not exactly true as to why Managment has not been able to fix GM and Ford NA. Their world operation kick ass till the economic drop.

Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Apr 1 07:40:31 2009 CDT #

MrM says:

Should be an interesting day for equtities today

No kidding!

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 742,000 workers in March, pointing to no relief in sight for the labor market amid the longest recession in seven decades, a private report based on payroll data showed today.
The drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge was larger than economists forecast and the most since records began in 2001. February’s reading was revised to show cut of 706,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 697,000.
Companies are slashing staff as tight credit conditions and shrinking household wealth cause sales to shrink. The Labor Department may report in two days that employers cut payrolls in March for a 15th consecutive month, putting jobs losses in the current downturn at more than 5 million, according to a Bloomberg survey.

MrM Wed Apr 1 07:40:58 2009 CDT #

Counterpointer says:

Futures saayyy ELMO!

Wahoo!

C

Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 07:43:52 2009 CDT #

mark says:

So what are the talking heads on CNBC and analysts (e.g. Kass) saying about the 742K UE figure? Let me guess, a lagging indicator...

mark Wed Apr 1 07:46:23 2009 CDT #

nova says:

Merkel may not be around after September.

June should be the 1st million month for unemployment at this rate. Especially with the death of the American auto industry a certainty at this point.

I just felt the slide downwards accelerate.

My sister, who along with my BIL, had a multi state construction company called last night. It is all over. They will probably head up into the mountains and plug into his extended family/LDS network. This is when you get start reaping the harvest from tithing, making sure family friends had jobs, and general open handedness to people.

nova Wed Apr 1 07:48:04 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Denninger:

April 1st Roundup: GM And More

CRbot Wed Apr 1 07:50:15 2009 CDT #

ATM card and $19 in the bank says:

Going back to 1 currency now (yogi) @ Today, 12:58:30 AM,

Just read today's editorial in the WSJ. I rarely agree with them (sometimes I think I subscribe just to enjoy a morning high-blood pressure rush when I read their partisan tripe), but today the editors hit it exactly right. Lack of transparency, appearance of cronyism and favoritism, repeating the mistake of concentrating risk rather than diffusing it... allowing only a few well-connected firms to participate in the private-public partnership is a disaster.

ATM card and $19 in the bank Wed Apr 1 07:53:48 2009 CDT #

blackhat says:

I am no longer interested in the "if" of depression. I think my last probability was 80% depression, 20% severe recession. I think we've hit 100%. I will be more interested at this point when the media catches up, and when they do, and start writing stories that no longer declare recovery, and bottoms, but a fundemental/systemic recalibration of our economic-role in the world, then capitulation will follow, and not a single one day capitulation a la 1987, but the steady realization that it's not good today, and probably won't get better tomorrow. And then a new administration will likely have to sort this out, or, a new political system since the last one will have eaten the last of its young.

That is all.

--bh

blackhat Wed Apr 1 07:59:58 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

"I am no longer interested in the "if" of depression. I think my last probability was 80% depression, 20% severe recession. I think we've hit 100%. "
Didn't someone mention that "Depression" was a positive euphamism used during GDI to avoid saying financial collapse, crash, and so on, and that it doesn't have any real meaning? It's only taken on the more negative meaning in hindsight. Not that it really matters; we're all screwed ;)

Parent Post

Cinco-X Wed Apr 1 08:05:37 2009 CDT #

Black Star Ranch says:

"This is when you get start reaping the harvest from tithing, making sure family friends had jobs, and general open handedness to people."

.........as long as you're Mormon.

Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 08:02:11 2009 CDT #

Virgil says:

The original version of 99 Red balloons was 99 Luftballons:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9whehyybLqU

Definitely German

Virgil Wed Apr 1 08:05:43 2009 CDT #

nova says:

BSR,

Yeah, a problem for us non mormons. Clannish bunch they be.

nova Wed Apr 1 08:05:58 2009 CDT #

Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:

We're talking about the film "The Red Balloon" not the song "99 Red Balloons"

Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Apr 1 08:06:43 2009 CDT #

ATM card and $19 in the bank says:

Re: 99 etc.

Okay, Mensa achievers, what country can claim credit for 99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall?

ATM card and $19 in the bank Wed Apr 1 08:06:52 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

It rymes in English, so I'll guess the US-of-A; probably the German immigrants who settled in Wisconsin.....
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
I'm making that all up ;)

Parent Post

Cinco-X Wed Apr 1 08:09:31 2009 CDT #

Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:

England, 99 Bottle of Beer is a variation on Ten Green Bottles.

Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Apr 1 08:08:20 2009 CDT #

nova says:

99 Bottles of Beer is German

Nein, Nein no mehr beir....

nova Wed Apr 1 08:11:50 2009 CDT #

Black Star Ranch says:

BTW, G'Morning. Denninger made some good points in his latest thread re. bankruptcy....
<ul>
<li>Reverse the "bankruptcy reform" act. </li>
<li>Repeal all restrictions on debt that can be discharged in bankruptcy. </li>
<li>Force all firms and individuals who are unable to pay through bankruptcy</li>
<li>and now how do I get out of quoting him without a "dot"? I don't know, so I'll end my point. LOL.</li>
</ul>

Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 08:14:11 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

New Thread: ADP: Private Sector Loses 742,000 Jobs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/adp-private-sector-loses-742000-jobs.html ( 1 comments )

I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)

CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:

Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.

I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...

Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.

--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot

CRbot: Call me HAL.

CRbot Wed Apr 1 08:14:27 2009 CDT #

Counterpointer says:

99 Bottles of Beer - England (minor possibility of Australia)
Red Balloon - France
99 Red Balloons - Germany, 80s.

Ghesh. Simple.

At this rate of basic ignorance soon we'll have confusion over liquidity vs solvency.

Oh, wait...

C

Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 08:14:59 2009 CDT #

black dog says:

Yesterday I talked to someone recently laid off from Continental Teves (in virginia), a german owned company that makes automotive brakes. Currently, the plant is operating one week then closed one week. Word around the plant is that the factory is going to shut down and production is going to shift back to Germany to preserve jobs there.

Every country for itself here we come!

black dog Wed Apr 1 08:24:56 2009 CDT #

Comments for "Evening Summary and Open Thread"

END