Comments for "Newsweek Cover Story on Krugman"


CRbot says:

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CRbot Sun Mar 29 12:33:38 2009 CDT #
Speed Racer says:

Second

Speed Racer Sun Mar 29 12:34:24 2009 CDT #
Mad Mullah says:


Krugman a contrary indicator now that he's on the cover? In that case, I'm holding out hope for a Conjure Clock cover story for Barron's

Mad Mullah Sun Mar 29 12:36:10 2009 CDT #
mp says:


The US economy is in danger of collapse and few see it because they're using econometric models that assume a return to equilibrium. They should be looking at the flow of funds.

This downturn will not equilibrate itself and all of Obama's actions have, so far, been ill-conceived half-measures.

mp Sun Mar 29 12:39:32 2009 CDT #
Michael says:


Right you are mp. One of my biggest beefs I have with the financial analysts, financial planners, and economists is they all ASSUME every thing will be just fine and return to normal as the "recovery" progresses. Those types of people are leading the sheep to slaughter by advising them to continue to put their money in the stock market and other risky investments. They have a vested interested to do so and they must not be trusted.

We are at a point in our long term economic cycle where the old system will decay and collapse in the not too distant future. The old rules of investing no longer apply. Safety first, two years of cash on hand, physical gold and silver , guns and ammo should be the new advice enlightened advisors should be giving.

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Michael Sun Mar 29 13:34:07 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


please. quick run to the hills and get yer gun and canned spinach.....

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Anonymous Sun Mar 29 17:13:21 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


He knows a banana republic when he sees one.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:40:36 2009 CDT #
burnside says:


And if it's a conscious attempt by Newsweek to silence Krugman?

burnside Sun Mar 29 12:42:42 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


actually, they just want to sell magazines and sensationalism is effective at that. Krugman's approach is pure ivory tower. Have you ever heard him actually outline how the Feds would even in their wildest dreams be able to over come politics and transition the entire money center of the US from private to public back to private hands without utterly destroying the credit markets? can you imagine having to get Barney Frank's blessing to get a car loan? what if I didn't vote democrat? could I still get a conforming mortgage as a "nonconforming voter"? Krugman should take a cue from Roubini and go away. Markets' are heading higher, slow and steady, but definitvely higher.

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Anonymous Sun Mar 29 17:16:49 2009 CDT #
Mario Erlic says:


Krugman calls a spade a spade. Thankfully there is a sane voice out there that is not infected with Obamese doublespeak, who is prepared to call the recue plan what it is. "Cash for Trash"

The old notion of "market Stability", where indebtedness rises faster than illusionary GDP growth is absurd. Where perpetual debt inflation made any sketchy piece of paper that the propeller heads designed AAA.

To partially steaal a quote from Dick Cheney, "The role of government during this financial crisis is to starve the financial sector till its so weak that it could be drowned in a bathtub" 8% of GDP to parasites that produce nothing is too much. What was wrong when the sector took only 4% of the pie????

http://www.financialheresy.com/



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Mario Erlic Sun Mar 29 19:45:02 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:


Reading this, after reading a local story that temp hiring is up, has sealed it for me.

We have bottomed.

/ducking nonetheless

Outsider Sun Mar 29 12:43:14 2009 CDT #
Oil Shock says:


Krugman is an extreme political partisan, which is why Nouriel Roubini ( who I disagree with on policy prescriptions ) has my respect not Krugman. The way I feel about Krugman is the same way I feel about Brad DeLong.

Oil Shock Sun Mar 29 12:48:21 2009 CDT #
yogurt says:


Krugman is an extreme political partisan

As Krugman himself put it, refusing to consider the Flat Earth Party is hardly being an extreme partisan.

Krugman is quite willing to criticise the Round Earth Party, after all the earth is really a spheroid.

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yogurt Sun Mar 29 13:54:58 2009 CDT #
ac says:


I've noticed recently Krugman seems a bit rattled about actions taken by the government.

I'll side with Krugman in the sense that (temporary) nationalization would have been the better thing to do, though I still don't really trust that a government with so many ties to Wall Street would do it in a constructive way.

Of course in the end that's the only difference between an intellectually defensible "left wing" and "right wing" position: The belief that the government is going to do the right thing is perhaps the most essential part of modern liberalism. If the government starts teaming up with the bad guys then it all goes out the window.

Also, I was just reading something that is worth repeating:

The United States prior to World War I was one of the greatest economic success stories in history. It had the highest per capita income in the world and this predated both the Federal Reserve, FDR, and liberalism in the modern sense. It was a country far more grounded in traditional liberalism then the one we have today.

Something to think about...

ac Sun Mar 29 12:49:31 2009 CDT #
pythagoruz says:


You gotta love his sense of humor though. Discounting himself on the basis of the cover story? lol

pythagoruz Sun Mar 29 12:49:52 2009 CDT #
popeye says:


Personally, I have trouble imagining what could be more politically liberating than the collapse of the economy. Think of it.

An actual historic opportunity to step out from under the thumb of the economic class that has ruled America since its inception. The group of families that have occupied the top 10% of income and wealth and have successfully operated this political/commercial enterprise for 250 years are suddenly going to surrender to the .0001% of the rable - - you know the guys who read CR and have some inkling of what's going on.

Yea, show me where I can place a bet that's going to happen.

popeye Sun Mar 29 12:51:31 2009 CDT #
Doble M says:


Hi CR,

As Lewis Lapham said about this second edition of "the best and the brightest" that Lapham prefers to call Achievetrons, "they learn to work the system, not to change it."

As Einstein said in various iterations, "You cannot solve the problem with the same consciousness that created it."

Good luck to us all.

Doble M Sun Mar 29 12:51:44 2009 CDT #
Maximus says:


Funny the mainstream media is now giving Krugman credibility while the Big Picture Blog recently wrote about Krugman being wrong about Securitization. This does seem to go against the way the media/blog relationships have worked in the past....

That Big Picture Blog entry was one of my WORST on this weeks blog entry if you want to see the details, and I stand behind that magazine cover effect and all...In this case Krugman seems to have all the facts on his side...not that facts are being used to make decisions these days....

Maximus
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/

Maximus Sun Mar 29 12:53:16 2009 CDT #
ac says:


Krugman is an extreme political partisan, which is why Nouriel Roubini ( who I disagree with on policy prescriptions ) has my respect not Krugman.

I think of Roubini is Krugman Lite. I think there are much better economists to pay attention to like David Rosenberg, Paul Kasriel, Gary Shilling as well as people that aren't strictly economists that seem to have a very good idea of what's going on: Taleb Nassim, Marc Faber, and Jim Rogers come to mind.

Unfortunately the evidence leads me to conclude that "Economics" is as much as a political movement as it is a science.

I think the problem that plagues economics is that the successes of the left have lead them to believe that their economic activism would be just as successful as their social activism. IMO the economics profession has become the center of this economic activism.

I don't think this is working out as planned for a very simple reason:

The economy is far more complex and dynamic than the economists are.

ac Sun Mar 29 12:55:48 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:

ac: The economy is far more complex and dynamic than the economists are."


Nevertheless, fighting two land wars on another continent, implementing massive tax cuts for the top 2% income bracket and being generally brain-dead for 8 years has something to do with the current pickle.



Doesn't seem like some sort of differential equation problem to me.

Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by 0)

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NervousRex Sun Mar 29 13:00:58 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:


I can't imagine how difficult it is to keep being correct and public in the face of mass poseurism.

NervousRex Sun Mar 29 12:57:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


What a coy boy Krugman is.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:00:14 2009 CDT #
Guest says:


I'd rather have Nemo on its cover, but then again, that would not be Newsweek.

Guest Sun Mar 29 13:00:31 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:


If you are of the establishment persuasion (and I am), reading Krugman makes you uneasy. You hope he's wrong, and you sense he's being a little harsh (especially about Geithner), but you have a creeping feeling that he knows something that others cannot, or will not, see. By definition, establishments believe in propping up the existing order. Members of the ruling class have a vested interest in keeping things pretty much the way they are. Safeguarding the status quo, protecting traditional institutions, can be healthy and useful, stabilizing and reassuring. But sometimes, beneath the pleasant murmur and tinkle of cocktails, the old guard cannot hear the sound of ice cracking. The in crowd of any age can be deceived by self-confidence, as Liaquat Ahamed has shown in "Lords of Finance," his new book about the folly of central bankers before the Great Depression, and David Halberstam revealed in his Vietnam War classic, "The Best and the Brightest." Krugman may be exaggerating the decay of the financial system or the devotion of Obama's team to preserving it. But what if he's right, or part right?

Wow. Just wow.



Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Sun Mar 29 13:01:08 2009 CDT #
mp says:


"Krugman is an extreme political partisan.."

Frankly, I don't give a damn if Krugman is a card-carrying communist, and I say that as one who voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964.

Good analysis stands on its own merits, and Krugman's is damned good.


mp Sun Mar 29 13:01:25 2009 CDT #
anotherajh says:


mp says:
Today, 2:01:25 PM




Frankly, I don't give a damn if Krugman is a card-carrying communist, and I say that as one who voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964.

Good analysis stands on its own merits, and Krugman's is damned good
.


Amen!


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anotherajh Sun Mar 29 16:44:06 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:

The Latest from Yves:

Guest Post: Blame it on the Gipper?


CRbot Sun Mar 29 13:01:40 2009 CDT #
MrM says:


The US economy is in danger of collapse and few see it because they're using econometric models that assume a return to equilibrium.

This is unnecessarily harsh. Quite a few economists are very concerned about the state of the US economy and the government course of actions. In addition to Krugman, other high profile and very worried economists include Simon Johnson, Stiglitz, Rogoff, Roubini, Sachs, Buiter (and I am sure I am missing a few more names).

The problem is not that few people understand the problem but that Obama has completely delegated the economic policy to people like Geithner, Summers and Romer, who like to think of themselves as politically savvy pragmatists, which binds them to the banking lobby.

MrM Sun Mar 29 13:01:46 2009 CDT #
sanjay says:


as another commentator put it - Obama's economic team is essentially the "bob Rubin Farm team". While it is fashionable amongst Democrats to blame Bush for the lack of regulation what they ignore is that the architects of the system that failed are Rubin and CO.

It is therefore not surprising that they would try and fix their own creation. Plus does anybody really think Larry SUmmers has in him the ability to say " Iwas wrong".

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sanjay Sun Mar 29 13:17:13 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:


Presumably the same effect applies to, say, economists.

Krugman is nervous because his fingerprints are on some of the solutions and he's a good enough economist to realize they might not work. Baseline case unemployment 8.5%? Why even bother running the baseline case then? What he is beginning to see is what many here saw years ago; we need econometric models that don't simply break when tight range assumptions are exceeded.

Br\'er Dawg Sun Mar 29 13:01:59 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


One can only hope that Brr Dawg is just making a joke about global cooling, otherwise, I'd be wondering about his sense of 'Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah' not to mention his feelings about Uncle Remus.

Shame that Disney still feels so sensitive towards letting Americans experience the full glory of this classic animated feature on DVD, a film with a truly old-fashioned American background - 'The film was premiered on November 12, 1946, in Atlanta, Georgia. James Baskett was unable to attend the film's premiere in Atlanta, Georgia, because he would not have been allowed to participate in any of the festivities in what was then a racially segregated city.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Song_of_the_South



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Anonymous Sun Mar 29 14:19:38 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:


"Krugman is nervous because his fingerprints are on some of the solutions and he's a good enough economist to realize they might not work."

I suspect it's the opposite.

In the above case, the world will go to pot and noone will sit around pontificating about Krugman's errors.

It's more likely that Krugman is concerned that he's on the record saying that the current bailouts won't work and that there is a good chance that these bailouts will succeed in inflating a bubble that floats the economy for a few years - years during which Krugman will be reviled as an overly pessimistic commentator, much like Roubini. Notice that Roubini ha learned to tone down the rhetoric and in response has received many more invitations to panels etc.

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Hymns for the Lord Sun Mar 29 14:30:37 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:


Maybe Newsweek finally got it right. Kittens United for World Peace (and all that crap) will short that company (and we regret putting Socks in the blender put that sucker had it coming).

Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 13:02:13 2009 CDT #
Cheelah says:


"Krugman is an extreme political partisan."

How true. More extreme than many are aware. And very anti-Obama from the outset.

Cheelah Sun Mar 29 13:03:02 2009 CDT #
sanjay says:


so by that defintion those who were supportive of Obama during the election and are now critical are more credible??

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sanjay Sun Mar 29 13:27:26 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


When the government takes over the money center banks, fires BB and shows the current Treasury the door then the bottom will be in sight, other wise this is ffinancial media entertainment, door number?

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:03:47 2009 CDT #
Jas says:


-- "Krugman is making the establishment nervous! Probably because they all missed the housing bubble - and Krugman called it correctly.

Jas Sun Mar 29 13:04:12 2009 CDT #
Jas says:

"Krugman is making the establishment nervous! Probably because they all missed the housing bubble - and Krugman called it correctly.”


How about those who not only called the bubble correctly but also identified the perpetrators and victims in advance? They should give the establishment sleepless nights (they are asleep during the day when on duty!).


Jas

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Jas Sun Mar 29 13:08:14 2009 CDT #


Hymns for the Lord says:


They would if they had a Nobel in Economics, a Princeton Economics faculty position, a New York Times column, and were the author of classic economics texts.

They won't if they sound like Marshall Applewhite. Unfortunately, the media only has the bandwidth to focus on the low pass singal emerging from their filters. They can't afford the investigative costs of analyzing the high frequency outliers.

No?

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Hymns for the Lord Sun Mar 29 14:35:32 2009 CDT #
YY says:


The shrill stuff gets caught up in the coils?

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YY Sun Mar 29 21:39:13 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


AIG Exec Whines About Public Anger, and Now We're Supposed to Pity Him? Yeah, Right
by Matt Taibbi | March 27, 2009 - 9:55am
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/20988

Like a lot of people, I read Wednesday's New York Times editorial by former AIG Financial Products employee Jake DeSantis, whose resignation letter basically asks us all to reconsider our anger toward the poor overworked employees of his unit.

DeSantis has a few major points. They include: 1) I had nothing to do with my boss Joe Cassano's toxic credit default swaps portfolio, and only a handful of people in our unit did; 2) I didn't even know anything about them; 3) I could have left AIG for a better job several times last year; 4) but I didn't, staying out of a sense of duty to my poor, beleaguered firm, only to find out in the end that; 5) I would be betrayed by AIG senior management, who promised we would be rewarded for staying, but then went back on their word when they folded in highly cowardly fashion in the face of an angry and stupid populist mob.

I have a few responses to those points. They are 1) Bullshit; 2) bullshit; 3) bullshit, plus of course; 4) bullshit. Lastly, there is 5) Boo-Fucking-Hoo. You dog.

AIGFP only had 377 employees. Those 400-odd folks received almost $3.5 billion in compensation in the last seven years, a very large part of that money coming from the sale of credit default protection. Doing the math, that averages out to over $9 million of compensation per person.

Ask yourself this question: If your company made that much money, and the boss of the unit made almost $280 million in just a few years, exactly how likely is it that you wouldn't know where that money was coming from?

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:04:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


"Yeah, right. Who would hire these guys? They'd stay for a dollar if you offered it to them, much less a million."

I mean, half of Wall Street is unemployed right now. There are plenty of unemployed traders out there whose resumes don't include such entries as "Worked for years at small unit of AIG that helped destroy the universe; throughout that time was completely ignorant of burgeoning global disaster unfolding 5 feet from my desk."

The idea that other companies would be so eager to pass over the seas of truly innocent available people in order to scoop up some still-employed veteran of AIGFP -- and that they would be so enthusiastic in their pursuit of said AIGFP employees that AIG would need to pay those AIGFP folks million-plus retention bonuses to get them to stay -- is so ludicrous it almost defies comment.

Show me, anywhere, the Wall Street firm that's willing right now to spend more than a million dollars poaching still-employed midlevel executives like DeSantis, when they can just put an ad in the paper and have 500 recently unemployed CEOs begging for work at almost any salary in five minutes.

So the idea that the rest of Wall Street is breaking down AIGFP's doors to lavish its idiot personnel with million-dollar offers is just utterly preposterous. The fact that DeSantis expects us to believe this is insulting in itself.

Also, remember, DeSantis until this year was probably the recipient of performance bonuses. This year, obviously, there was no performance, so AIG doled out these "retention" bonuses instead. And the value of these retention bonuses is seriously in question if AIG never really needed to pay extra to retain this personnel, which I personally believe they didn't.

I personally believe these "retention" bonuses were a ruse cooked up by management to suck a few more dollars out of the company before it sank to the ocean bottom. So if DeSantis is "owed" these bonuses, it's only in the sense that someone up above agreed to cheat the shareholders by paying these bonuses when they weren't really necessary; they weren't "earned" in any real sense.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:05:45 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


Here's the real problem with people like Jake DeSantis. Throughout this whole period, they never were able to connect the dots -- to grasp the fact that when they skimmed a million here or a million there off the great rivers of capital that flowed through their offices, that that money came from somewhere, from someone. To them, it wasn't someone else's money, it was just money, and why shouldn't they have it?

It's remarkable that when DeSantis, in his letter, touts the reason he deserves his high compensation, all he can talk about is how much money he made: "The profitability of the businesses with which I was associated clearly supported my compensation."

For a guy like this, his worth as a human being is wrapped up in buying a bag of beans for $10 and selling it for $11. He states this like it's a law of nature: he was a good equities-and-commodities trader, therefore he should make a lot of money.

Only a person with a habitually overinflated sense of self-worth could think he deserves a $700,000 retention bonus, even if it has to be paid by taxpayers, when in reality no one "deserves" that much money. It may be that some people do get paid that much, but most people who make that much money have enough sense to realize their cushy lifestyles are an accident of fate, of birth, of class, not something that is "supported" by some unwritten natural law of compensation.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:06:21 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


Hey Jake, it's not like you were curing cancer. You were a fucking commodities trader. Thanks to a completely insane, horribly skewed set of societal values that puts a premium on greed and severely undervalues selflessness, communal spirit and intellectualism -- values that make millionaires out of people like you and leave teachers and nurses, the people who raise your kids and clean your parents' bedpans, comparatively penniless -- you made a lot of money.

Good for you. Consider yourself lucky. But your company went belly-up and broke, almost certainly thanks in part to you, and now you don't get your bonus.

So be a man and deal with it. The rest of us do, when we get bad breaks, and we've had a lot more of them than you. And stop whining. Jesus Christ.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:06:37 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


you my friend are a genius. great post.

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Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:44:20 2009 CDT #
mp says:


"In addition to Krugman, other high profile and very worried economists include Simon Johnson, Stiglitz, Rogoff, Roubini, Sachs, Buiter (and I am sure I am missing a few more names)."

You are absolutely correct, but they are few compared with the total number of so-called analysts in this business.

IMO, many of the so-called mainstream analysts are reluctant to stand up and be counted for fear of their professional reputations should they be proven wrong.

mp Sun Mar 29 13:06:54 2009 CDT #
sanjay says:


nothing to do with reputations. Who on Wall Street would hire somebody who opposed them getting billions from the Government. And lets face it there are not a lot of other jobs these folks could get.

Nothing will change until we are prepared to act like patriots (not Reoublicans and Democrats) and make it clear that we will vote against anybody who takes a dime from the financial services industry. None of these guys would take a donation from the pornographic industry we should make a donation from the financial industry carry the same stigma.

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sanjay Sun Mar 29 13:32:43 2009 CDT #
MrM says:


In addition to Krugman, other high profile and very worried economists include Simon Johnson, Stiglitz, Rogoff, Roubini, Sachs, Buiter (and I am sure I am missing a few more names).

ac @1:55:48 PM provides a few more names.
This is not like the housing market circa 2006, when indeed few economists were concerned. Today a lot of very good economists are very concerned.

MrM Sun Mar 29 13:07:03 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:


Hey CR --

Do you have a reference showing that "Krugman called [the housing bubble] correctly"? I do not recall him being particularly early in calling the bubble, although he has been spot on since the collapse started.

Oil Shock --

Krugman may be an extreme partisan, but at least he has been principled and consistent. He is certainly not falling into line with the Obama Administration.

Brad DeLong is a true partisan hack, and not particularly smart to boot. (He is often simply wrong.) Best ignored.

Nemo Sun Mar 29 13:08:06 2009 CDT #
sanjay says:

Other well-known critics of Krugman are Lawrence
Kudlow and James Cramer of CNBC, who have
criticized Krugman for his views against
supply-side economics. On his TV program Mad
Money, Cramer also voodooed Krugman as a
"bobblehead doll|bubble head" by bursting a
helium-inflated bubble marked "KRUGMAN", for
complaining about a possible "housing bubble
(economics)|bubble". Kudlow (who, like Donald
Luskin, also works for National Review Online), on
his side, has debated Krugman on the former CNBC
TV show Kudlow & Cramer and on the last episode of
Dylan Ratigan's Bullseye (CNBC)|Bullseye on March
11, 2005, and has frequently criticized him on his
program Kudlow & Company. Also on CNBC on August
7, 2004 on Tim Russert's eponymous program, Bill
O'Reilly (commentator)|Bill O'Reilly confronted
Krugman in a heated discussion, calling Krugman a
"quasi-socialist". Krugman replied "And you take a
look at anything I've written about economics, and
I'm not a socialist. You know, that's a slander."
When O'Reilly responded "I said quasi", Krugman
retorted "Well, that's a wonderful, then you're a
quasi-murderer...quasi is a pretty open thing."


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sanjay Sun Mar 29 13:39:04 2009 CDT #
yogurt says:


Do you have a reference showing that "Krugman called [the housing bubble] correctly"?

Well how about just using Google and entrering "Krugman housing bubble"?

Earlist hit I saw is - surprise suprise - this very blog on 23May2005.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2005/05/krugman-housing-etc.html

Nobody is claiming that Krugman was the first to call the bubble.

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yogurt Sun Mar 29 14:07:05 2009 CDT #
popeye says:


"The problem is ...that Obama has completely delegated the economic policy to people like Geithner, Summers and Romer, who like to think of themselves as politically savvy pragmatists, which binds them to the banking lobby."

So, you are criticizing Obama for seeking the quickest and most efficient solution to this situation ?


Mr.M, if that is not exactly what you said then I missed your point.

popeye Sun Mar 29 13:12:03 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:


I wish Krugman's blog were more responsive. Everytime I post it waits for hours for moderation from the NYT. The lack of timeliness is fine for his many fans (adoring messages are not uncommon), but sucks compared to the communal interaction at CR.

Jackrabbit Sun Mar 29 13:12:07 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:


...... "the evidence leads me to conclude that "Economics" is as much a political movement as it is a science"

the politics will remove you from the unbaised thought processes required to be the pure "economist" (or mathematicion, engineer, etc.) - to as great a degree as does living in a their typical insular world.



Black Star Ranch Sun Mar 29 13:13:08 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


These are the infamous “plaster vulvas” on (in?) Nouriel Roubini’s condo walls. I wouldn’t have noticed them except that, well, they’re infamous. And everyone at the party was talking about them. Because that’s sort of what happens when you have … uh … infamous vaginas in (on?) your walls.
Roubini is awesome, though. If you talked with him, you’d never even know he had vaginas on/in his walls!
http://julia.nonsociety.com/main.php

He ain't got nothing on Nouriel Roubini. LOL

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:15:56 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:


"I wish Krugman's blog were more responsive. Everytime I post it waits for hours for moderation from the NYT."

.....or try 18+ hours on the weekends.

Black Star Ranch Sun Mar 29 13:17:36 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


---finishing repost out of order, thanks js-kit, next time sacrifice Michael's posts please---

Are we supposed to believe that Jake DeSantis knew nothing about Joe Cassano's CDS deals? If your boss and the top guys in your firm were all making a killing selling anything at all -- whether it was rubber kayaks, generic Levitra or credit default swaps -- you really wouldn't bother to find out what that thing they were selling was? You'd really just mind your own business, sit at your cubicle and put your faith in the guys up top to fill you in if there was something you needed to know?

This would be a believable claim for an employee of some other wing of AIG, a company with well over 100,000 employees. But DeSantis works for tiny, 377-person AIGFP, a unit that had only two offices -- one in London and one in Greenwich, Conn.

And we're talking about financial professionals, the most shameless group of tirelessly envious gossips ever to walk the face of the earth. The likelihood that Cassano would pull in $280 million for himself, and his equally greedy, hopelessly jealous employees wouldn't know not only exactly how he made that money but every last ugly detail about his life -- from what skank he's sleeping with to what side of his trousers he hangs on -- is almost zero.

I know plenty of people who work in this world, and I've met very few who didn't hate with every cell in their bodies anyone in their own companies who made more money than they did or got bigger bonuses at Christmastime. Gossiping about each others' bonuses, and bitching about each others' compensation, is the national pastime for these people.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:17:55 2009 CDT #
MrM says:


So, you are criticizing Obama for seeking the quickest and most efficient solution to this situation ?

I am criticizing Obama for allowing the economic policy to be designed solely by people who think that that the quickest and most efficient solution to the current economic mess is limited to options palatable to mega-banks (C, GS, BAC, JPM). As a result, the administration pays a lot less attention to the real economy (compare the treatment of the auto industry to the treatment of Wall Street), to smaller banks (see previous thread), to consumers (where are the extended UE benefits? where is help to states and municipalities who have to raise their taxes and layoff people?).

MrM Sun Mar 29 13:19:11 2009 CDT #
ac says:


Nevertheless, fighting two land wars on another continent, implementing massive tax cuts for the top 2% income bracket and being generally brain-dead for 8 years has something to do with the current pickle.

I absolutely agree.

And while I think it is necessary to cut spending in order for the US to remain solvent (even though the US may now be too sick to withstand the chemotherapy that it needs) I think the simple-minded manner in which the Republican party approaches tax cuts is counter-productive.

The only real tax cut is a spending cut. The Republicans are only interested in paper tax cuts that aren't accompanied by real improvements in the efficiency of the government. Further these paper tax cuts seem to be designed to increase economic imbalances rather than cure them - they're basically arbitrary redistributions of wealth motivated by political ends.

I don't think either party has it right now because real solutions are too painful and too politically untenable.

ac Sun Mar 29 13:22:33 2009 CDT #
ac says:


I wish Krugman's blog were more responsive. Everytime I post it waits for hours for moderation from the NYT.

I always think of this as the comments section for Krugman's blog. ;)

ac Sun Mar 29 13:23:45 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:


popeye,

Perhaps Mr. M's premise is extended regulatory capture - the perpetuation of the problem rather than the implementation of a solution.

energyecon Sun Mar 29 13:23:49 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:


Krugman is a blogger! How much credibility can he have? :-P

reptillian Sun Mar 29 13:29:50 2009 CDT #
ANSFA says:

popeye says:
Today, 11:51:31 AM


<tbody>


“An actual historic opportunity to step out from under the thumb of the economic class that has ruled America since its inception. The group of families that have occupied the top 10% of income and wealth and have successfully operated this political/commercial enterprise for 250 years are suddenly going to surrender to the .0001% of the rable - - you know the guys who read CR and have some inkling of what's going on. ..."
===============
If movies could be used sometimes as a suggestion then watch BRAVEHEART (regardless of your opinion of Mel Gibson as an actor, and/or the accuracy of the script of that movie). What did the Scottish rulling class did at the end of the "revolution"? Who did they side with? There are endless examples throughout history about how the STATUS QUO of the ruling elite is guaranteed in one shape or form.
Those of us reading CR might feel or think like we have an "edge" of some sort because we might be "better informed"....but that hardly changes anything for those at the top 1% income bracket of the world.
On the positive side though, keeping yourself informed with CR comments and analysis might help you to stay solidly in the pack, or as far away as possible from the lower 50% income bracket in the world.


</tbody>



ANSFA Sun Mar 29 13:33:28 2009 CDT #
Michael says:


Newsweek must not be trusted. They are owned by J-People.

Michael Sun Mar 29 13:35:08 2009 CDT #
Comrade Tiberius says:


What faith can we have in any globalization scheme, given the very poor record of experts?

"The in crowd of any age can be deceived by self-confidence, as Liaquat Ahamed has shown in "Lords of Finance," his new book about the folly of central bankers before the Great Depression, and David Halberstam revealed in his Vietnam War classic, "The Best and the Brightest."

Comrade Tiberius Sun Mar 29 13:35:14 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:


......Obama, Geithner, Gates, et all are taking the courses they are led to take. Since the mid-January start, this administration probably seems to be "easy marks" for the REAL players involved.

20+ years of administrations CAN'T be this naive, incompetent, fearful, or destruction oriented to be a coincidence. There are bigger players involved.

But then I'm just a gloom & doom gardener that has his "poop-in-a-group", with bacon, beans, butter, and bullets.

Black Star Ranch Sun Mar 29 13:36:02 2009 CDT #
Oil Shock says:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEFzYxDPf0A

Oil Shock Sun Mar 29 13:36:27 2009 CDT #
Oil Shock says:


Part I

Imagine an Island with population for 4 people: Frank Farmer, Charlie Chef, Mike Miner, Sam Smith.
Frank grows grains for all the other three, Charlie bakes and cooks for all the other three, Mike Mines Iron & coal, and Sam makes tools for all the other three. They sleep in caves and live their lives.
Frank saves some grains for that proverbial rainy day. Mike saves some coal and steel, just in case the mine collapses, or if he falls sick. Charlie pickles some vegetables and meat, just incase. Sam keeps few extra tools, just in case he becomes handicapped.
One fine day, Barry Bum washes up the shore of the Island. The islanders welcome Barry. They had an overdose of confidence. Out of the goodness of their heart, they feed Barry the first day. Barry promises that he will pay them back with interest. Next day, Barry eats another meal and gives them an IOU. All of a sudden, Charlie realizes that there is more demand for his cuisines, he starts to serv up his savings. He realize that he needs more utensils, which comes from Sam's savings. Sam suddenly realizes that he needs to replenish his savings, and demands more from Mike's savings. Charlie demands more grain from Frank and that starts to deplete Frank's savings. This goes on for some time as everybody keeps themselves busy. Barry in the mean time takes a vacation to a near by island for a couple of days and comes back ( Home equity extraction ). Once the savings gets depleted, people work harder and produce a little bit more than they used to, to feed the extra person Barry.
Then proverbial rainy day arrives; Charlie falls sick and decides to cash the IOUs he has recieved from Barry. However, Barry has nothing to pay his debts with and hence no way for Charlie to repay his own debts back to Frank or Sam. This causes Sam to realize that he has no way of paying Mike. A credit crunch takes shape. They also realized that there is no need to do the extra work to keep feeding the unproductive Barry. Suddenly Charlie stop producing for Barry, hence he demands less from Frank and Sam.
Ed Empircal Economist comes to the picture and says, there is a lack of confidence. Charlie needs to start feeding Barry as if nothing has happened. He says aggregate demand is going down. See all the idle tools now? Government needs to take over and put these "idle" resources to use.


Oil Shock Sun Mar 29 13:41:16 2009 CDT #
Oil Shock says:


Part II

The reality is, economy was consuming more than it was producing, thus depleting the savings. It was malinvested in unproductive activities. May be, just may be, all the tools and savings allocated to making baking utensils need to re-allocated to some productive activity. May be they need to make pull-carts to transport the produce and iron ore.
If you introduce money into this island's economy, nothing changes. When the farmer produces 100 island dollars worth of grains and produce, converts it to cash and save 10 island dollars, that savings exist as real goods in the economy. Same goes for Mike Miner, Charlie Chef, Sam Smith. When an entreprenuer borrows money to invest, he is actually creating claims against these savings of real resources and putting them to use.
Printing a bunch of money and throwing into the island is not going to make the savings re-appear overnight. The depleted savings have to be rebuilt. Dropping interest rates to -6% is not going to change the real savings overnight.
Real life characters are unlikely to lend to Barry the bum to the point of their ruin. Which is the reason why Gary Government, takes away the risk by guaranteeing all the loans, implicitly or explicitly. Gary cosigned the mortgages for the consumers and cosigned the deposits on behalf of the bankers.

Oil Shock Sun Mar 29 13:41:39 2009 CDT #
popeye says:


Did anybody read part 1 ? ..... I didn't think so.

popeye Sun Mar 29 13:44:10 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


Geithner won't say if more bailout money needed
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2930354120090329

Geithner Says Some Banks to Need ‘Large Amounts’ of Assistance
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akWSzaWK6SGI&refer=home

LMAO

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 13:47:04 2009 CDT #
bearly says:


About these severely punative regulatory changes... pure theater. If the changes were truly aimed at change in the sense that the financials skim the cream while producing nothing of value don't you think the equities of the likes of GS, MS, JPM would have reflected already.

Obama is a well placed stooge running interference for the banks, so they can continue unfettered theft..

bearly Sun Mar 29 13:47:18 2009 CDT #
Hal says:


Bloomberg's website seems to be down. Anyone else find this to be the case?

Hal Sun Mar 29 13:47:58 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:


"Did anybody read part 1?"
-----------------

Yes. T
he moral of the story is to toss Barry Banker into a firepit?

Broward Horne Sun Mar 29 13:48:57 2009 CDT #
mp says:


"When I see the Doom & Gloom comments on CR..."

I say hope for the best and plan for the worst. That philosophy has guided me through crises for a very long time. The proof that it works is that I'm here to tell the tale. Anything less would be imprudent and irresponsible.

mp Sun Mar 29 13:49:43 2009 CDT #
Hal says:


Oil Shock: Krugman says he is a "liberal" but he is hardly extreme. Americans don't know what extreme leftism is; they haven't had any really ever, and only a wee bit in the 1930. Extreme leftism is socialism and communism. You seem to see things only from a Rush Limbaugh perspective.

Hal Sun Mar 29 13:50:21 2009 CDT #
popeye says:


bearly,
You and I seem to say the same thing differently.

popeye Sun Mar 29 13:50:24 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:


Ok, is there an ETF where we can short Krugman? Or is he too Nobel to fail?

C



Counterpointer Sun Mar 29 13:51:50 2009 CDT #
Patrick Henry says:


Is anyone hanging from a rope, yet?

Patrick Henry Sun Mar 29 13:52:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


We are all hanging separately, it seems, instead of hanging together.

Parent Post

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 14:02:46 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:


We are at a point in our long term economic cycle where the old system will decay and collapse in the not too distant future. The old rules of investing no longer apply. Safety first, two years of cash on hand, physical gold and silver , guns and ammo should be the new advice enlightened advisors should be giving.

When I see the Doom & Gloom comments on CR I think of Star Wars aka the "Strategic Defense Initiative" which so many claimed would cause WWIII. Instead in helped to bring the end of the Cold War.
I think: This too shall pass. And we will be a stronger, not a weaker nation once we are past it. Of course we do need to demand reform. Unfortuneately nothing seems to (fundamentally) change unless there is blood in the streets (I mean that more figuratively than litterally)

Jackrabbit Sun Mar 29 13:55:53 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:

The Latest from Ritholz:

Inflation Adjusted Housing


CRbot Sun Mar 29 13:57:10 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:


Mr. Obama stressed that he intended to maintain an American auto industry. “But it’s got to be one that’s realistically designed to weather this storm, and to emerge at the other end much more lean, mean and competitive than it currently is,” he said. “And that’s going to mean a set of sacrifices from all parties involved — management, labor, shareholders, creditors, suppliers, dealers. Everybody is going to have to come to the table and say it’s important for us to take serious restructuring steps now, in order to preserve a brighter future down the road.

From an appearance, today, on Face The Nation

reptillian Sun Mar 29 14:04:56 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:

The Latest from Yves:

New Group to Offer Cover for Lobbyists and White House


CRbot Sun Mar 29 14:05:31 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:

The Latest from Denninger:

Three Month Wrap-Up (1Q 2009)


CRbot Sun Mar 29 14:05:54 2009 CDT #
longwaver says:


Belief that the US Government will / can fix any of this is the last bubble to pop. Getting closer every day.

longwaver Sun Mar 29 14:06:59 2009 CDT #
nazdagg says:


http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice



<h2 id="blurb" style="outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; vertical-align: baseline; font-size: 14px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 0px; line-height: 20px; font-style: italic; font-family: georgia, serif; font-weight: normal; text-align: left; padding: 0px; border: 0px initial initial;">The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.</h2>

by Simon Johnson


nazdagg Sun Mar 29 14:08:35 2009 CDT #


Michael says:


My home town. See story for video.

Cape "Tea Party" Canceled; City Fears too Many Attendees
http://www.winknews.com/news/local/42019772.html

Music video for your entertainment.

American Tea Party Anthem (with words) by Lloyd Marcus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1byTDgu7iA

Michael Sun Mar 29 14:19:44 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:


I think Mr. J was on NPR a few weeks ago. If so, he was excellent.

Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 14:21:32 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:

"The United States prior to World War I was one of the greatest economic success stories in history. It had the highest per capita income in the world and this predated both the Federal Reserve, FDR, and liberalism in the modern sense. It was a country far more grounded in traditional liberalism then the one we have today.
"


You can have quite a high "average" per capita income with a relative few extremely wealthy people. And they had extremely wealthy people in those days. As wealthy as the several-ten-billionaires we have today, inflation-adjusted.


Even if that figure is adjusted -- in those days the vast majority of Americans lived on farms. In a sense, the majority of Americans were members of family-owned small businesses. And they may have prospered more than urban cousins -- the last gasp of Jefferson's ideal "yeoman farmers." But even so they were fighting for their lives against trusts that controlled markets, transportation monopolies that controlled their transport costs -- and out west, much of the land.


If it were a fine time, it was one they could see slipping away in the face of technology and the centralization of wealth. They were on their way to becoming employees of industry, like city denizens, in a time with no labor laws and few scruples.



"Big government" didn't depress individual prosperity. It propped it up, when technology and finance threatened to take it all away.

Bob Dobbs Sun Mar 29 14:22:11 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:


WTF is up with JS-Kit? Where did that table come from? @$@#*

Bob Dobbs Sun Mar 29 14:22:51 2009 CDT #
Oil Shock says:


Hal,
Sorry, you seem to associate me with people I have never been associated with. I have never listened to Rush Limbaugh's radio program. You will be surprised to hear that, I am for getting government out of the business of marriage, money, drugs etc. I was and am against the war in Iraq, War on drugs etc. So Rush Limbaugh and me have about as much in common as Rush has with Paul Krugman.

Oil Shock Sun Mar 29 14:24:49 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


Krugman called the housing bubble correctly? HUH???? By the time PK called the housing bubble, it had popped - loudly! Get the facts straight. Dean Baker called it correctly, PK was silent when his voice might have helped. PK deserves credit for many observations, especially those on "liquidity traps", but on the housing bubble he deserves to be asked why, for two years ('04-Spring, '06) he remained silent in the face of a fast growing mountain of evidence.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 14:26:00 2009 CDT #
yogurt says:


PK was silent when his voice might have helped. PK deserves credit for many observations, especially those on "liquidity traps", but on the housing bubble he deserves to be asked why, for two years ('04-Spring, '06) he remained silent in the face of a fast growing mountain of evidence.

That is an out and out lie. How stupid do you think we are?

Parent Post

yogurt Sun Mar 29 14:59:47 2009 CDT #
lawn grass says:


"Krugman called the housing bubble correctly? HUH???? By the time PK called the housing bubble, it had popped - loudly! Get the facts straight. Dean Baker called it correctly, PK was silent when his voice might have helped. PK deserves credit for many observations, especially those on "liquidity traps", but on the housing bubble he deserves to be asked why, for two years ('04-Spring, '06) he remained silent in the face of a fast growing mountain of evidence. "

From August 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/08krugman.html

Parent Post

lawn grass Sun Mar 29 15:07:19 2009 CDT #
AnonEMoose says:



"But sometimes, beneath the pleasant murmur and tinkle of cocktails, the old guard cannot hear the sound of ice cracking."


Can't help but think of the scene in "Doctor Zhivago" where the fat cats are having a fancy dinner inside a beautiful palace while the masses are marching down the street just outside their window.


AnonEMoose Sun Mar 29 14:28:43 2009 CDT #


Broward Horne says:


You can't cut'n'paste from existing comments.

OT - reading through democraticunderground.com today is fascinating. Chomsky equates Obama to Bush, Sachs equates Obama to Bush. Obama against marijuana legalization. Obama to start new war in Pakistan. Obama & Banks against America.

Wow.
What a different three months makes.


Broward Horne Sun Mar 29 14:28:49 2009 CDT #
JP says:


By the time PK called the housing bubble, it had popped - loudly!

You think it popped loudly in 2005? Or did you not see the link?

There is a real bubble mentality in the US housing market," Prof Krugman said, adding that prices of US housing were 250% of their real values.

May 2005

BTW, what is it about Krugman that makes people so crazy as to ignore data like this?

JP Sun Mar 29 14:31:17 2009 CDT #
Michael says:


UN: Global Temperatures Will Decline in 2008

http://www.dailytech.com/UN+Global+Temperatures+Will+Decline+in+2008/article11389.htm

Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century

http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+Century/article12823.htm



Michael Sun Mar 29 14:31:18 2009 CDT #
JP says:


You can't cut'n'paste from existing comments.

Works fine in firefox.

JP Sun Mar 29 14:32:32 2009 CDT #
Dash says:


CR,did you read Simon Johnson here:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

That's something that makes me nervous. While scary, it rings pretty darn true.

Dash Sun Mar 29 14:36:51 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


The US economy is in danger of collapse and few see it because they're using econometric models that assume a return to equilibrium. They should be looking at the flow of funds.
---------------
cut-n-paste from firefox. Regardless of whether this works or not, the formatting issue is a cut-n-paste problem. I've had several times.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 14:37:53 2009 CDT #
popeye says:


You can't cut'n'paste from existing comments.

Works fine in Safari too - UNLESS you have blown up the print for an easy read and copy from that screen.

popeye Sun Mar 29 14:38:23 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:


Anyone with great stature such as Krugman, whether conservative, liberal, communist, socialist, libertarian who is willing to publicly admit they have been wrong and willing to change their views bears listening to.



poic.v20 Sun Mar 29 14:39:25 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:

"


<tbody>


UNLESS you have blown up the print for an easy read and copy from that screen."
---------------------


Cut-n-paste from Google Chrome.




<img src="http://js-kit.com/blob/XHhca_4R_e6f8urQQh8rdS-24x24.jpg"/>








</tbody>




Broward Horne Sun Mar 29 14:44:54 2009 CDT #


Broward Horne says:


there, happy?
That's a cut-n-paste from Google chrome.


Broward Horne Sun Mar 29 14:45:40 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:


"What if President Obama is squandering his only chance to step in and nationalize but restructure the banks before they collapse altogether?"

Impossible. He is an agent of change and will fulfill the promise of a brighter future.

Tim waiting for 2012 Sun Mar 29 14:45:52 2009 CDT #
Oil Shock says:


Impossible. He is an agent of change and will fulfill the promise of a brighter future.

We are in the third term of George W. Bush.

Parent Post

Oil Shock Sun Mar 29 14:55:19 2009 CDT #
MrM says:


reptillian says: Mr. Obama stressed that he intended to maintain an American auto industry. “But it’s got to be one that’s realistically designed to weather this storm, and to emerge at the other end much more lean, mean and competitive than it currently is,” he said. “And that’s going to mean a set of sacrifices from all parties involved — management, labor, shareholders, creditors, suppliers, dealers. Everybody is going to have to come to the table and say it’s important for us to take serious restructuring steps now, in order to preserve a brighter future down the road.

This further illustrates my point - the Obama economic cabinet is perfectly willing to force auto creditors and labor to share the pain in order to let their companies survive. However, when it comes to mega-banks, the pain has to be forced on the taxpayers, and certainly not on bank creditors and bank labor (hey, bankers do labor 80+ hours a week!).

The belief that the well-being of bank creditors and bank labor is critical to the turnaround of the economy is, indeed, extended regulatory capture, mentioned by energyecon in this thread and originally by W. Buiter. This belief has been extensively criticized by Winterspeak

MrM Sun Mar 29 14:47:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


Purina Monkey Chow for rm's!

let's feed'em well for this week, were gonna need it.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 14:47:45 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:


MRM actually labor has its benefits largely intact while the bond holders are taking the biggest hit. Bailouts are uneven and this will further confuse and and infuriate the public and private investors.

Tim waiting for 2012 Sun Mar 29 14:51:48 2009 CDT #
Markar says:


"Cape "Tea Party" Canceled; City Fears too Many Attendees"

Isn't that the whole idea of having one?

Markar Sun Mar 29 14:52:57 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:


Thanks for the explanation; I've gotten away with cutting/pasting on Firefox on my newish Mac laptop, but apparently not on this creaky old G4. Still, the tool should be more robust than this.

I have always throught that CR "should" (if it were easy and cheap) go to a vbulletin-type solution where _only he_ could start threads -- with his usual postings -- but we could all post comments it. It would allow account control, too.

I'm sure there are many drawbacks, but at least it would be stable and reliable.

Bob Dobbs Sun Mar 29 14:53:31 2009 CDT #
Max says:


Copy plain text addon for firefox:

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/134

Max Sun Mar 29 14:57:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:


Anyone else find it ironic that Krugman, who usually fills the NYTimes full of pro-Democrat rants, is the source of the Democrat admins pain? And that Nouriel Roubini who has been critical of just about every regulatory govt action (or more usually inaction) anywhere int he world for 3 years is in favor of the Geithner plan?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZXiD0hnsSD8

Krugman seems to live in an academic tower with no practical point of view if you ask me - I mean, even if you did want to nationalize the banks - what does that mean in a practical sense? Aren't you going to need a mechanism to liquidate the assets aftewards? How do you deal with the - we killed the voodoo chicken and decided to nationalize your bank factor? Isn't that going to freak out all the businesses and international investors? It's not some theoretical academic thing you can just announce with no mess to clean up afterwards. I think Roubini has called it right.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 15:06:13 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:


<h1>Bargain home prices attract investors, novices</h1>
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2009/03/29/MN3K16M9RT.DTL&o=1








Tim waiting for 2012 Sun Mar 29 15:10:03 2009 CDT #
lawn grass says:


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/23/opinion/23krugman.html

lawn grass Sun Mar 29 15:11:10 2009 CDT #
burnside says:


No, I don't find it ironic. I find it an altogether inaccurate assessment.

burnside Sun Mar 29 15:13:35 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:


I hadn't seen this posted yet, great read

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

Comrade Kristina Sun Mar 29 15:14:18 2009 CDT #
EL says:


CR:

The Lords of Finance and the Best and the Brightest... but how about WMD in Irag i.e. Fiasco or did Evan Thomas support the consensus that here were WMDs in Iraq?

EL Sun Mar 29 15:16:09 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:


Interesting feature article of SF Gate about who's buying homes in the SF Bay Area these days. The money quote:

"People who buy homes without planning to live in them remain a steady and increasing force in the market. While it's difficult to pin down exactly which buyers are investors, one sign is the address to which new buyers have their property tax bill sent. Two years ago, about 10 percent of home buyers had tax bills sent to an address other than the newly purchased house. By February that was up to 18.7 percent.

Most of those investors appear to be in it for a while, planning to rent out their properties either long term or until the still-far-off day when the market turns.
But remarkably, there is still flipping going on even as prices plunge. From January 2007 through February, DataQuick's numbers show that 2.9 percent of all homes sold had changed hands in the prior 12 months, indicating that they were being flipped (being repossessed by a bank as a foreclosure was not counted as a prior sales event)."


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/29/MN3K16M9RT.DTL&type=realestate&tsp=1

Bob Dobbs Sun Mar 29 15:17:19 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:

New Thread: Personal Saving and Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/personal-saving-and-mortgage-equity.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )

I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)

CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:

Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.

I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...

Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.

--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot

CRbot: Call me HAL.

CRbot Sun Mar 29 15:17:21 2009 CDT #
JP says:


From LawnGrass's NYT link:


Of course, the coming of the New Deal was hastened by a severe national depression. Strange to say, we may be working on that, too.

That did sound quite strange in may of 2005.
Again I wonder: What is it that causes Krugman to get through the thin-skinned and become crazy with selective memory? I would never have guessed that a Nobel prize would cause him to have this effect.

JP Sun Mar 29 15:17:38 2009 CDT #
1currency now [yogi] says:



"Unfortunately the evidence leads me to conclude that "Economics" is as much as a political movement as it is a science. "

Fortunately, people are starting to realize that "Economics" has always been and will always be as much a political movement as it is a"science".

1currency now [yogi] Sun Mar 29 15:19:39 2009 CDT #
Sr. American Mugabe says:


Lost post. Won't retype.

Suffice to say the proletariat is waking up from the last 8 year disaster to our next 4-8 year disaster, and the world wants off the dollar(and apparently so do we)

Doomer Porn. Don't honk, I'm reloading.

Sr. American Mugabe Sun Mar 29 15:24:06 2009 CDT #
lawn grass says:


Four of 16 media reports in 2001 that referenced a housing bubble were either written by or cited New York Times economic columnist Paul Krugman. Of particular note was a September 30 Times article by Krugman entitled “Fear Itself” where he wrote: “Housing was doing better, thanks to low interest rates, but some analysts were warning about a housing bubble – and even if they were wrong, how solid a recovery could we have from housing alone?”

http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2005/mediamyths/mediamyths.asp

lawn grass Sun Mar 29 15:31:08 2009 CDT #
Hal says:


I don't think either Roubini or PK have any apologies to make to anybody. They both stand head and shoulders above the generality of economic gurus. Independent. That's the key. When they two agree I think the result is very powerful.

Hal Sun Mar 29 15:46:10 2009 CDT #
km4 says:

<h3>I think Krugram in more right and Simon Johnson is spot on correct so Obama had better take heed !
</h3>
<h3>US Banking oligarchy f*cked up and still won big</h3>


The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.
by Simon Johnson

The Quiet Coup
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200905/imf-advice

The USA in addition to having most advanced economy and military also has the most advanced oligarchy so if the Obama admin doesn't swing the banking regulation pendulum back we'll also be the world's largest Banana Republic


km4 Sun Mar 29 15:58:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:

How cute, Thomas thinks he's a member of the establishment. The establishment wipes their ass with you, you worm.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 16:35:14 2009 CDT #
Kelley says:


I always say the same thing about commericals. When someone (usually oil companies or financial companies or during the tech bubble, tech companies) started to advertise heavily it was because something bad was about to happen. Remember those great MCI commericals? Just before they went belly up? Or Lucent? Or Chevron (under pressure for Nigeria destruction) or BPI? Same thing. Short them when you see them on TV.

Kelley Sun Mar 29 16:53:33 2009 CDT #
nullpointer says:


ok everybody, what about this scenario:

because $13 T was thrown at the problem, 666 marks the bottom on $SPX; and we repeat the 2003-2007 rise in the equity markets.

...only to have another crash in 2013 or so.

like a sine wave; not true sustainable growth founded upon efficient allocation of capital, but rather a serous of artificially supported booms/busts.

its a possibility i have been considering.

dont get me wrong...we will eventually pay for our behavior...it just might be much further down the road than you think.

nullpointer Sun Mar 29 16:54:16 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:


Well, I don't think McD's or Wendy's is about to go belly up, but
I think if it's a newbie advertising, that might be a clue.

Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 16:55:10 2009 CDT #
Fried says:


Evan Thomas is well-connected socially, and as a writer and journalist has been around forever...

Fried Sun Mar 29 16:59:03 2009 CDT #
Vic says:


"because $13 T was thrown at the problem, 666 marks the bottom on $SPX; and we repeat the 2003-2007 rise in the equity markets."

NullPointer -
This will not be possible unless the dollar is devalued severly. In that case, Gold will be a much better investment than equities. However, I do think that shorting equities is not as much of a safe play as in 2008.
Also, most of the equity gains during 03-07 can be attributed to the devaluation of the dollar.

Vic Sun Mar 29 18:06:33 2009 CDT #
Steve Jobs says:


Apparently Immune.

Steve Jobs Sun Mar 29 18:37:43 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:



msm financial media would always preface Krugman's name with "Nobel laureate" when it supported their preconceived notions about a market rally. i'm not hearing them use that title as much now. hmmmmmm

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 20:31:00 2009 CDT #
avl dao says:

In December 1972, Economists were befuddled with Nixon's Wage & Price Boards & Controls, the de-coupling of the dollar from the Gold Std, and stubborn Vietnam-fueled inflation. If only that was the limit of the challenges.


Now, in hindsight, we know what came next from 1973-1984:the 73-74 S&P Bear, Yom Kippur War & Energy Shock, 73-75 recession, double-digit inflation & unemployment, destruction of the rust belt industrial core, the slow rise of Sunbelt, post-Shah Iran energy shock of 1979, double-digit i-rates, 79-80 recession, collapse of Chrysler, 81-82 recession, and the 1984 rise of the Service Economy model and a GDP model that was 70% driven by consumer spending, and the 1982 start of the 25-yr secular bull run.


Of all that, how much did establishment economics see in December 1972: only the likelihood of inflation & unemployment. Basically no mainstream economist could peer from 1972-1984 and none foresaw the destruction of manufacturing and the rust belt, or the rise of a service sector economy.


We need to accept that in 2009, we have no clue how challenging the next 9-11 years may be. Or how many presidents we will crunch through. 1973-82 went thru 4.




avl dao Sun Mar 29 21:00:19 2009 CDT #


yogurt says:


Again I wonder: What is it that causes Krugman to get through the thin-skinned and become crazy with selective memory?

I think it's simply because he's right a lot of the time. Not all the time of course, but a lot.

yogurt Sun Mar 29 23:10:42 2009 CDT #

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