Comments for CPI Increases 0.4% mostly due to gasoline
Mark2Make-Believe says:
The energy inflation of 2008 was a leading indicator of higher costs for consumer goods. Consumer goods companies were able to put through signifiant price increases, many of which took effect late in 2008. Consumer goods manufacturers and retailers will be loathe to pass on savings due to lower energy costs.
Mark2Make-Believe Wed Mar 18 07:59:17 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
CR,
Isn't rent an "inferior good" as housing costs go? Wouldn't you expect greater demand for it in a recession?
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Wed Mar 18 10:21:08 2009 CDT #
jauus says:
I'd expect gas to continue to rise.
jauus Wed Mar 18 07:59:36 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/2346899761496768346
CRbot Wed Mar 18 07:59:45 2009 CDT #
FED says:
so let me get this strait, both rent and OER went up when rents and housing prices are falling... this seems slightly odd
FED Wed Mar 18 08:02:14 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..........."concern about deflation a little".......'a little'..........yeah, indeed.........
Jay D. Wed Mar 18 08:04:03 2009 CDT #
JP says:
For some reason owners' equivalent rent increased even though rents are falling in most areas
wtf. Anyone have a plausible explanation?
JP Wed Mar 18 08:05:25 2009 CDT #
JT says:
CPI is bull $h1t statistic and only Ivy MBA sheeple on The Street will get a hard on over that.
I expect that none of this blog's readers will feel good about that POS stat.
JT Wed Mar 18 08:06:49 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
----------------
From “Housing: Two Bottoms” thread…
Nemo says:Yesterday, 6:36:20 PM: “I dunno, CR, I think Jas really has you beat.”
CR’s downfall in housing forecasts began with his very bad estimate of the housing demand years ago. I tried several times to provide him with census data that clearly showed that the real world demand was far below his estimate of 1.7M annual rate.
It is not just CR who was wrong and would not correct himself all of the economics profession was wrong about the housing demand with estimates in 1.65-1.90M range. These people are very bad with reconciling their estimates with the actual data. Most economists are very bad in forecasting, especially, negative outcomes.
America’s problems are its people—dopes, crooks and bad economists. There is no cure that I know of other than prolonged misery. BTW, in terms of people things were never this bad in America in the past. The real problem began with Baby Doomers, culturally bred to lead to America’s doom. For the past 20 years they have been in the driver seat. This train is headed for a wreck.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 18 08:15:48 2009 CDT #
charlie says:
One thing I've learned is America doesn't have a monopoly on dopes. It's just that in America, unlike many other places, dopes have better opportunities to do stupid things on a larger scale.
The primary reason other countries didn't have problems with people making $50k/yr borrowing $500k for a house is there aren't many people outside the US who make $50k/yr. The exception is Europe and their problems are worse than ours.
Parent Post
charlie Wed Mar 18 08:26:50 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Charlie, whatever problems hard core Europe (Germany, France, Benelux, Sweden, Denmark) as opposed to the fringe (Ireland, Spain, Italy, the East) or England (which I don't consider part of the EC as they are still not in the Euro) have, are due to the stupidity of their (US educated) bankers, who got fleeced by the likes of AIG, GS etc. to buy the idiotic CDO's and similar monstrosities.
The core EC never had the buy now-pay tomorrow mentality at the heart of US problems. Most importantly they never had a real estate bubble.
Governments and citizens of these core countries are in much less debt and enormously better financial shape than the in the US.
Producing more top quality goods than they consume they do, however, suffer the sudden lack of US profligacy. Thankfully, and contrary to the US, they also have social safety net that will keep human misery at a bearable level.
Overall the US could be happy to be in the position of Europe.
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 10:00:44 2009 CDT #
Marie says:
Both rent and OER reported is a 6-mo moving average, so they will be behind the curve. Also, falling utility rate will boost OER as it increases the "Economic rent", although the weight is pretty small as I understand (but I can never figure out the lag between the actual utility and the time it gets subtracted from sampling rents).
Marie Wed Mar 18 08:16:32 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Bernanke Capital Management
CRbot Wed Mar 18 08:17:01 2009 CDT #
charlie says:
I don't think deflation is a serious threat. Companies are operating with razor thin margins. Instead of lowering prices to attract consumers, they'll instead go bankrupt or reduce costs. It makes no sense to sell at a loss. Maybe they'll sell at a loss over the short term to clear existing inventory, but they won't create new product with the intention of losing money. The end result will be less competition which is inflationary.
charlie Wed Mar 18 08:21:06 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
Companies can cut wages to maintain a profit while decreasing sales price to increase competitivity. This is a central banker's nightmare scenario since they lose all control once a deflationary spiral takes control. While it is still in a seed stage (now), Bernanke hypothesized that it can be countered through quantitative easing.
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Wed Mar 18 10:27:29 2009 CDT #
FED says:
I find it really hard to believe that OER will stay positive and continue to boost the CPI. Furthermore, it appears vehicle prices were up YOY, a trend that is quickly reversing to get more buyers in the stores. We still have a good chance of negative CPI readings to come
FED Wed Mar 18 08:23:57 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Gas at the pump prices steady here in NW DC, southern Maryland, for the past three weeks at least - so far as I can tell from observation.
Pavel Wed Mar 18 08:25:49 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Architecture Billings Index Near Record Low
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/architecture-billings-index-near-record.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to http://realize.org/cr then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.
--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
CRbot Wed Mar 18 08:26:21 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
For some reason owners' equivalent rent increased even though rents are falling in most areas:
Home heating oil, natgas, taxes, insurance, mortgage rests/recasts, hedonic assumptions.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 08:26:45 2009 CDT #
bfatz says:
Credit Cards - URGENT News Flash
http://disasteremergencysupplies.com/snafu/2009/03/credit-cards-urgent-news-flash/
bfatz Wed Mar 18 08:26:54 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Moscow wants new international currency:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/375364.htm
Pavel Wed Mar 18 08:27:29 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Geithner reached out to AIG Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy last week “to communicate what we thought were outrageous and unacceptable bonuses.”
What kind of 70s touchy-feely horsezhit language is THIS?
Geithner "reached out"....
"to communicate" what we thought.....
Thank goodness I have a new calf and another baseball game to announce today - I won't get to keep up on the "Obama-Geithner Days of Our Lives" show. Don't forget to watch Obama on Jay Leno tonight. He must be pretty busy with his watching CNBC and his Late Night TV appearances and ......oh yeah.......running the country...
Black Star Ranch Wed Mar 18 08:30:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I am not sure how rents are calculated for CPI, but we must consider the game that ALL landlords play (I know, I'm in the business) to keep the "rent" top line figure artificially high ... they offer free months of rent and amortize it over the term. therefore, the top line "rent" number does not go lower ... same nonsense the builders tried to do at first so home prices would not go lower. home prices are reported in statistics whereas incentives / freebies are not. i suspect the same thing is happening with rents - rents are statistically reported, but free months rent are not.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 08:36:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
“For some reason owners' equivalent rent increased even though rents are falling in most areas
to be fair, remember that OER also lagged the outrageous price increases that occurred during bubble times...
must be the way that they figure it?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 08:43:08 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
last anonymous post was me.
Yearning to Learn Wed Mar 18 08:43:35 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
D3 COLA CPI adjustment.
http://www.freep.com/article/20090318/BUSINESS01/903180410/1014/Cost-of-living+adjustment+made+at+Detroit+3
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 08:46:36 2009 CDT #
Martin, the Netherlands says:
@ Charlie: I'm still not sure whether the problems in Europe are bigger than in the U.S., or whether it's the other way round. Only time will tell, I guess...
Martin, the Netherlands Wed Mar 18 08:48:56 2009 CDT #
cm says:
charlie: The problems in "Europe" are not predominantly because of consumer debt, but bad "investments" in foreign (substantially US) debt obligations, e.g. US MBS, and other "nonperforming" instruments.
cm Wed Mar 18 09:53:30 2009 CDT #
posterboy says:
Hey guys, check out what i've just found on youtube!
"Hey Paul Krugman" song!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOYAuk809fY
have fun :-D
posterboy Wed Mar 18 10:06:25 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
CPI Increases 0.4% mostly due to gasoline
by CalculatedRisk on 3/18/2009 08:50:00 AM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CR , do you not know that the CPI is a manipulated, meaningless statistic ?
Why do you peddle government lies ?
Have you no shame ?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 10:50:39 2009 CDT #
END