Comments for "ADP: Private Sector Loses 742,000 Jobs"
GrandOldTurkey says:
Furst?
GrandOldTurkey Wed Apr 1 08:13:42 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/2413598580137341512
CRbot Wed Apr 1 08:14:28 2009 CDT #
ac says:
-600k is the new break even point.
ac Wed Apr 1 08:15:08 2009 CDT #
entropy says:
Layoffs galore, Fed tax receipts crumbling, foreign countries shying away from T notes, QE, and Obama /Geithner in the pocket of Goldman Sachs....
we are so screwed
entropy Wed Apr 1 08:16:11 2009 CDT #
brucentennessee says:
And not only that, but China has decided they are going to seek alternatives to the US dollar...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aePCB3EbqmfQ
China Will Expand Currency Swap Accords to Help Trade
Parent Post
brucentennessee Wed Apr 1 08:49:31 2009 CDT #
picturerock says:
You wanna see a bad number? Wait until the coming job losses in the auto sector get counted in. Hey, and all those people just went from tax payers, to tax consumers. What do you think that will do to state budgets? Its ugly out there folks.
picturerock Wed Apr 1 08:17:36 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
Hast Du etwas Zeit für mich
Dann singe ich ein Lied fuer Dich
Von 99 Luftballons
Auf ihrem Weg zum Horizont
Denkst Du vielleicht grad' an mich
Dann singe ich ein Lied fuer Dich
Von 99 Luftballons
Und dass sowas von sowas kommt
99 Luftballons
Auf ihrem Weg zum Horizont
Hielt man fuer UFOs aus dem All
Darum schickte ein General
Eine Fliegerstaffel hinterher
Alarm zu geben, wenn es so war
Dabei war da am Horizont
Nur 99 Luftballons
99 Duesenjaeger
Jeder war ein grosser Krieger
Hielten sich fuer Captain Kirk
Das gab ein grosses Feuerwerk
Die Nachbarn haben nichts gerafft
Und fuehlten sich gleich angemacht
Dabei schoss man am Horizont
Auf 99 Luftballons
Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 08:18:19 2009 CDT #
Martin, the Netherlands says:
Ah yes, that was a lovely song!
Parent Post
Martin, the Netherlands Wed Apr 1 09:01:42 2009 CDT #
Ethan says:
Mean Fluury Kitten @ 8:18
Do you have some time for me?
Then I will sing a song for you
Of 99 air balloons
On their way to the horizon.
Do you perhaps think right no about me?
Then I will sing a song for you
Of 99 air balloons
And that something comes from something.
99 air balloons
On their way to the horizon
One thinks they are UFO’s from the all-in-all
Therefore a General sent
A squadron after them
To give alarm if it were so
At that place on the horizon
There was only 99 air balloons.
99 fighter jets,
Each was a great warrior,
Thought himself to be Captain Kirk,
There was a great fireworks.
The neighbors hadn’t stolen anything
And felt right put upon
As someone on the horizon shot
At 99 air balloons.
Oder so etwas. Seit 1966 hab’ ich nicht mehr Deutsch Tag zu Tag gesproken.
Parent Post
Ethan Wed Apr 1 12:21:36 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
These numbers are significant. However they will be sterilized by the argument that unemployment will lag well-after economic recovery, as in 25% peak unemployment during the depression in fact lagged the over-all economic recovery at that time. Possibly true in the ridiculous way these things are judged. 15% offical unemployment is fast approaching.
--bh
blackhat Wed Apr 1 08:20:31 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Sweet ! The irresponsible credit junkies are starting to pay the piper.
And happy AAA-lying and money-printing .
(You will pay the price for money-printing soon !)
Werner Wed Apr 1 08:21:06 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
"I don't have much confidence in the ADP report in predicting the BLS employment number, but this is pretty ugly"
and BLS aka BuLlShit numbers are any good? Head in the sand?
Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 08:21:26 2009 CDT #
bernandoo says:
Does ADP (or BLS) adjust for February being a shorter month?
bernandoo Wed Apr 1 08:23:34 2009 CDT #
charlie says:
Lets see...
742,000 lost in 28 days. That equates to 9,672,400 jobs lost in 365 days. That would put the U-3 unemployment rate at something like 17% and U-6 at something like 25%.
As fewer people work, there are fewer who can be fired, so like all the housing statistics, eventually there won't be room for the data to get much worse.
charlie Wed Apr 1 08:24:02 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Well, at least if you've got your head in the sand, you can with some confidence declare that you are at the beach.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Apr 1 08:24:41 2009 CDT #
Citizen DH says:
Where can I get details for the ISM number when it comes out?
Husman says to look for new orders. Kasriel is interested in supplier deliveries.
Thanks,
Citizen DH Wed Apr 1 08:24:55 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
...“Hast Du etwas Zeit für mich...
-------------------
Wenn's nicht so militärisch wäre würde ich ja das Kätzchen ja gerne etwas streicheln. Aber so ...
Werner Wed Apr 1 08:25:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wusste gar nicht dass hier so viele Deutsch sprechende mitlesen, und bloggen...
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 08:51:43 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
Any engineer would tell an economist that "Yes, buddy. Feedback loops can oscillate beyond any control" but no, friggin economists always believe there will be revert to the mean. Friggin lesser science idiots.
Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 08:25:57 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
It's not bad until the UE numbers are measured on a log scale.
Hmm... at 8% UE and 300,000,000 people, that's 24m unemployed people. With a turnover rate of 742k per month, they last about as long as cars do.
NateTG Wed Apr 1 08:26:45 2009 CDT #
John says:
NateTG: I don't think that UE rate is based on the entire US population. I looked a few months back, and it seemed like 140 million was close to full employment. (also, maybe people suggest that the U6 rate is more accurate).
Can anyone point me to U6 figures by state? U6 for the entire US is easy to find, but I haven't found it by state.
Parent Post
John Wed Apr 1 10:42:54 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"...you can with some confidence declare that you are at the beach."
Unless it's a litter box.
ATM card and $19 in the bank Wed Apr 1 08:28:42 2009 CDT #
Virgil says:
NateTG,
Population does not equal labor force.
Five-year olds don't have to work for a living... at least not yet
Virgil Wed Apr 1 08:28:50 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
"money-printing soon" is in some ways an obvious near-future, but perhaps the more interesting observation is "when"? "When" is more of a political question, political domestic and political abroad--and I have to wonder when? It will be the last act, then one where it's realized that tarping and state-sponsored enterprises alone doesn't correct the imbalances, and that the methods must be paid for, and to pay, we must print, and to print, we shred our obligations to our creditors, and our creditors will punish us.
This is the interesting point about the Chinese, that they have looked 10 moves ahead, and have decided for vertical integration, the opposite of outsourcing your economic survival.
When? Could be 2 years, could be 5 years. I'll vote for 2 years, 2011-2012 and inflation will be rampant.
--bh
blackhat Wed Apr 1 08:29:27 2009 CDT #
anon says:
but no, friggin economists always believe there will be revert to the mean. Friggin lesser science idiots.
so your saying economists believe the fiz will return to a day old coke?
anon Wed Apr 1 08:30:37 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
"Population does not equal labor force."
I know, the whole post was supposed to be bad reasoning.
"friggin economists always believe there will be revert to the mean."
If the market will not move to the mean, the mean will move to the market.
Parent Post
NateTG Wed Apr 1 08:35:28 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
"Well, at least if you've got your head in the sand, you can with some confidence declare that you are at the beach"
Well, you got a point there.
Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 08:31:02 2009 CDT #
jm says:
Most of the world's sand is not found on beaches ...
Parent Post
jm Wed Apr 1 09:04:40 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Some interesting news from the the front lines on a logistics business I'm involved with - their inbound US container traffic is up 20% in the last 2 weeks of March vs last year after being down about 20%+ for each week in 2009 preceeding it (and Q4 2008). Hearing similar activity in Asia in the past few eeks. Appears the inventory correction of this cycle was pretty severe and may be over.
Guest Wed Apr 1 08:31:29 2009 CDT #
MLM says:
"The obvious implication of the recent downturn in total reserve holdings — and the $180 billion fall in q4 wasn’t driven by currency moves — is that the pace of growth in the world’s dollar reserves has slowed dramatically."
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/31/foreign-central-banks-arent-going-to-finance-the-us-fiscal-deficit-their-reserves-arent-growing-the-q4-2008-cofer-data/
Get your pots and wooden spoons ready, it's almost time for a million man march on Washington.
Except for you Jas. You'll presumably be busy taking up the slack in Treasury purchases by all those central banks.
MLM Wed Apr 1 08:31:37 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
You mean Million Dopes March, right?
If there were a million guns organized hunt for banking and financial crooks and rogue economists (the hunt should begin in NYC, obviously) that would be something meaningful. Marches and writing to Congress is strictly for born-and-bred American dopes that want to feel good about doing something.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Apr 1 08:59:38 2009 CDT #
Jamie says:
next time we see -600k in a month we will rally, you watch
Jamie Wed Apr 1 08:34:49 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
......and $9. per pack for cigarettes in NY. Now THAT is outrageous - and I'm one of those fence-straddling "reformed smokers" - who can't be counted on to agree with the boilerplate opinions.
Indicted past Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is no longer indicted. AG Holder decided the US had no case. Why was this not decided before impeachment? Were there skeletons that they were worried might start tumbling out of the dementia-addled 85-year old's mouth?
(BTW, Senator Stevens has NOT been accused of being addled or dementia driven, nor guilty of any crime of any higher level then the rest of the US Senate. Any and all verbal illustrations are for decorative and artistic purposes only and are the opinion of this writer only. Add all other required bullshit here.)
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 08:34:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
black star ranch
case was dropped, allegedly (and likely true) because the judge had twice found the fbi and prosecutors to be in contempt of court for with holding evedence so on appeal stevens would likely walk
holdin saving taxpayers money AND stevens is 82...probably deadd b4 case hits the supremes
mt
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 09:18:44 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
...“Any engineer would tell an economist that "Yes, buddy. Feedback loops can oscillate beyond any control" ...
--------------------
Right , but in real reality, there is always enough dampening present to prevent this. Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"? But I agree with you, a reversion to quo ante is not in store here :
Werner Wed Apr 1 08:34:54 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
Right , but in real reality, there is always enough dampening present to prevent this. Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"? But I agree with you, a reversion to quo ante is not in store here :
When I was in high school a friend of mine had a motorcycle which, when driven at a certain range of speed on a certain roughness of of pavement, would develop a front suspension "oscillation" that would eventually grow to be out of control. Once this happened he had two options: Pull over to the side of the road and come to a complete stop; or keep riding until the motorcycle caused itself to crash.
This was a real-world system that literally would go "out of control"
Parent Post
Chicago Dude Wed Apr 1 08:47:28 2009 CDT #
jm says:
''Right , but in real reality, there is always enough dampening present to prevent this. Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"?''
Any system that cycles vigorously between levels set by external constraints if "out of control" from an engineering viewpoint. It doesn't matter that the "bust" phase isn't end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-forever catastrophic. Any system that goes through boom-bust cycling is out of control.
Parent Post
jm Wed Apr 1 09:15:43 2009 CDT #
Scott says:
Werner says:
"Right , but in real reality, there is always enough dampening present to prevent this. Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"?"
Ever hear of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-zczJXSxnw
It is a classic engineering case of a feedback loop that oscillated out of control.
Parent Post
Scott Wed Apr 1 09:16:34 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Guest,
You'll see up-ticks as inventory is cleared, but you'll see the trend reverse IMO. Same with equities with bear rallies, followed by more bleeding on the way down. The suggestion is that demand has risen and therefore inventory has been ordered, however I doubt that demand has risen appreciably, I do not doubt that wishful thinking has however risen.
--bh
blackhat Wed Apr 1 08:36:22 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
BH - actually none of the customers are saying that end user demand has risen. They're saying it has declined but not fallen at even close to the rate that inventories have. Also, customers are saying that most of the sales declines relate to price and mix - people still buying similar volumes, but buying the lower priced alternatives. I dont think this is anything like a bear market rally because there has been absolutely nothing even close to a rally for 6 months - literally every single week since Sep 2009 has been down 20%+ up until 2 weeks ago. Customers are saying their inventories are way too low and they need to build back up a little to support demand. There is a reasonably long lead time for the business and based on what we're hearing I would expect Q2 to be a very good quarter for the business and definately up over last year. After that I would expect it to be flat to slight down, but comp positive to last year by the end of Q3 since things we're so bad at that time last year (so its an easy comp). There is now doubt there will be a trickle down from this inventory build - the contraction has been huge across the board and once retail starts to build again (and it seems like that is starting to happen) then everyone upstream will need to follow.
I'm no bull on the economy or the markets and was short up until the beginning of March - but I'm not ignoring what I'm seeing or hearing. In my opinion its pretty significant and seems to have legs for the next few months. I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it - although its no surprise that most of the posters here would since like the perma-bulls they can only see the world one way despite changing facts.....
Parent Post
Guest Wed Apr 1 09:00:04 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Hast Du etwas Zeit für mich
Dann singe ich ein Lied fuer Dich
Von 99 Luftballons ..." etc.
Balloons being shot at by hotshots? Code for our present situation?
Pavel Wed Apr 1 08:37:01 2009 CDT #
Virgil says:
Nate, I actually realized that after I posted.
I guess it was just an automatic reflex I have when I see bad numbers. Oh well, can't be helped.
Virgil Wed Apr 1 08:38:23 2009 CDT #
bk says:
Citizen DH, ISM is reported on Bloomberg. Look at the economic calendar under market data.
bk Wed Apr 1 08:39:24 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
"Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"?"
Liebe Generals in August 1914? Hyperinflation in Germany after WWI?
Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 08:40:12 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
A bicycle going down hill goes too fast and becomes unstable and the rider goes over the handle bars.
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 10:38:35 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
'Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"?'
Soviet economic system in the late 80s early 90s? German political/military system 1939-1945?
Pavel Wed Apr 1 08:40:22 2009 CDT #
Plantagenet says:
Can you name a real "real world system" that goes "out of control"?
Well, I would estimate that Zimbabwe is running at a phase margin of less than 45 degrees at this point ...
Parent Post
Plantagenet Wed Apr 1 08:55:55 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Well, I would estimate that Zimbabwe is running at a phase margin of less than 45 degrees at this point ..."
Nah, they have reverted to the mean. Gold flakes used to buy bread. Givien enough time, fiat currency eventually reverts to the mean of a gold/commotity standard.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 09:06:03 2009 CDT #
jm says:
Real estate markets -- both residential and commercial -- again and again. Long lags and dead times around the feedback loop guarantee oscillation unless the loog gain is aggressively kept low.
Parent Post
jm Wed Apr 1 09:07:35 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
" I'll vote for 2 years, 2011-2012 and inflation will be rampant. "
An appointment with the US general election cycle? Not unless unavoidable.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 08:43:11 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Jamie,
I don't doubt the rally based on less-than catastrophic numbers, however I doubt that YoY there is a sustained rally, or just that the market keeps its level.
Keep in mind that by definition we are already in a prolonged and severe recession historically. There is so much more capacity to be reduced and so much of the economy to be reorganized into more productive endeavors. And there is so much seed-corn breakfast/lunch/dinner going on right-now. The best-case scenario is that we're simply in a 3-5 year severe recession followed by a recovery, if you can call being comatose on life-support recovery.
--bh
blackhat Wed Apr 1 08:43:16 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
BSR,
Fellow reformed smoker here; I have no idea what coffin-nails cost these days.
Your $9 a pack comment gave me an idea: let's let our beloved Monsanto hybridize legal marijuana with a single-generation feature in the seeds. Anybody can grow their own, but to get "the good stuff" you gotta buy brand-name and pay the taxman.
FD: I'm not a toker either, so no talking-my-book here...
ATM card and $19 in the bank Wed Apr 1 08:44:17 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
August 1914? Good example.
Or in antiquity, Athens in the Peloponesian War.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 08:45:09 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"your" = as in what is your name
"you're = contraction for "you are"
(Sorry, my dear beloved Mother sends me continual e-Mails about online spelling. Now I can say "I told 'em".)
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 08:46:52 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Pavel,
There will be an "election-based" upside to inflation at first, and I'm sure it will be reported in the media, as those with salaries will make so much more money year-over-year, allowing them to service their static debts. But the ugly-side, where unemployment is coupled with inflation will also be apparent.
I think depending on the spin you can put the inflation pig in a dress, paint its face pretty, and marry it off to the electorate.
--bh
blackhat Wed Apr 1 08:46:59 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Blackhalo,
They definitely started printing money in March via Fed purchases of T's, MBS, etc. However, that money just isn't getting any velocity. By the time it does get some traction it'll blow the doors off (but still not in wage or housing inflation, though).
IMO interest rates on the long end will soar first, and likely sometime this year.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Wed Apr 1 08:49:10 2009 CDT #
Iconoclast421 says:
This is from the beginning of March: "private employers cut 697,000 jobs in February versus a revised 614,000 jobs lost in January". So where is the revised number for march? (And why does this stupid comment box move my entire post down when I press Return anywhere in the paragraph????)
Iconoclast421 Wed Apr 1 08:50:15 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"There will be an "election-based" upside to inflation at first, and I'm sure it will be reported in the media, as those with salaries will make so much more money year-over-year, allowing them to service their static debts."
Could be. But a lot can happen in the next 2 - 3 years. Some of it doesn't bear thinking about. Oh well, most bad things don't happen. I keep telling myself.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 08:50:53 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Iconoclast, it's not a bug, it's a feature.
Bruce, makes perfect sense, they can engage in international sales at steady prices by holding significant amounts of target foreign currency. Surprised they haven't done it already.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Apr 1 08:52:28 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
"Balloons being shot at by hotshots? Code for our present situation?"
It's a coldwar protest song. The final verses are about the incident
leading to global war and a world in rubble. (A contemporary song
"Bruttosozialproduct" has a more macroeconomic orientation.)
NateTG Wed Apr 1 08:53:10 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
CNN-Money writers are idiots. I have a BIG problem with a few cassandras there. there is no upside to "Employment Reports Show Mixed Picture" -
If an island consists of 10-people who lose their jobs. Unemployment is of course widespread. The "pace of job cuts may be slowing" is true, but NO GOOD NEWS!
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 08:53:49 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
Well, at least if you've got your head in the sand, you can with some confidence declare that you are at the beach.
Or you could be here.
TCA Wed Apr 1 08:54:22 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
When in doubt, spell it "yer."
At least, that's what Strunk & White sez.
ATM card and $19 in the bank Wed Apr 1 08:54:27 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Balloons being shot at by hotshots? Code for our present situation?"
I feel like I am in a hot air balloon that has stovepiped and is hurtling to earth. Oh and is on fire!
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 08:54:38 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Feedback loops can oscillate beyond any control" but no, friggin economists always believe there will be revert to the mean." Well, looking at the video they show of the bridge in Montana where harmonic oscillation causes it to fall apart, it does return to the mean. No, bridge.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 08:54:56 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse , WA
Parent Post
bcg Wed Apr 1 11:52:32 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Damn js-kit's eating posts again... >:o
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Wed Apr 1 08:55:40 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Werner:
<i>Right , but in real reality, there is always enough dampening present to prevent this. Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"?</i>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroelasticity#Flutter
Also, umm, floodng streambeds?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Apr 1 08:57:40 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"The final verses are about the incident
leading to global war and a world in rubble. "
I lived through and was in a very minor way involved in that era. I think people who were aware of what could happen spent decades scared and depressed by it at some level, or perhaps overcompensating with false gusto.
Are we out of danger? Who knows? Resumption of negotiations on nuclear arms reduction are a positive sign.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 08:58:00 2009 CDT #
kharris says:
MFK,
Statements about human behavior which include the word "always" are always wrong. In this particular case, the notion that economists "always" don't understand the implication of feedback loops is quite wrong. The one thing most economists have a grasp of today is math, even if they don't always have a grasp of other things that kinda matter.
kharris Wed Apr 1 08:58:17 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
The good point of all this is global "downturn": everybody is feeling it. The bad point is: within next decade there will be THE GREAT BOOMERS, meaning ONE BILLION youngsters coming to the working age in ASIA.
So your pitiful 75 million American baby boomers is peanuts what we are going to face GLOBALLY. Internatiol Labour Organization (ILO) estimates there will be jobs for only 300 million (well, mere USofA). The rest of 700 million? You wanna challenge, well there is one! :)
Mean Flurry Kitten Wed Apr 1 08:59:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The "pace of job cuts may be slowing" is true, but NO GOOD " clearly not a math major, familiar with the first integral. IF we are at the inflection point where the rate of change turns positve and not in an exponential polynomial.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 08:59:13 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Blackhat, post above on inflation was intended for you.
BTW, I just don't see wage inflation happening anytime soon, at least not broad-enough based to matter. Mish had a recent post showing plenty of instances of wage deflation, including across-the-board 10% cuts for Microsoft contractors.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Wed Apr 1 08:59:36 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
..."Can you name a real "real wordl system" that goes "out of control"?"
Liebe Generals in August 1914? Hyperinflation in Germany after WWI?
--------------------
"Lieb e Generals in August 1914" : You mean the situation / evolution between 28. 6.1914and 31. 7.1914 ? Actually yes, that you can say "spun out of control" Good point !
Hyperinflation in Germany after WWI : I am not sure about that . The money was printed to pay the striking workers after the French occupied the "Ruhrgebiet". And the consequences of that money-printing (Hyperinflation, not Hitler later) I think were clearly predictable.
Werner Wed Apr 1 09:00:16 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
China will take care of itself, ultimately. 700 million unemployed means that they will probably become massively expansionist, attempt to dominate their neighbors even more, and then suffer a massive internal civil war that will kill hundreds of thousands.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Apr 1 09:01:37 2009 CDT #
Sebastian says:
Citizen DH asked: "Where can I get details for the ISM number when it comes out?"
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MFGROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942
S.
Sebastian Wed Apr 1 09:03:19 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Can you name a real "real word system" that goes "out of control"?
.........flooding streambeds?
....that's why I hang here. Intellectuals all (hoping maybe some small bit will rub off).
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 09:03:41 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
"The "pace of job cuts may be slowing" is true, but NO GOOD " clearly not a math major, familiar with the first integral. IF we are at the inflection point where the rate of change turns positve and not in an exponential polynomial.
Keep flying that dashboard and you will crash a lot of planes.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Apr 1 09:04:01 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Keep flying that dashboard and you will crash a lot of planes."
Huh?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 09:11:52 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"although its no surprise that most of the posters here would since like the perma-bulls they can only see the world one way despite changing facts....."
Another insight! We're on a roll.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 09:04:12 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Pending Home Sales Index
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/pending-home-sales-index.html ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
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Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Wed Apr 1 09:05:29 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
LOL
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 09:05:58 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Guest,
CR pretty much stated the same thing a few days back, but noted that GDP would likely still suffer because those that supply equipment to the manufacturers themselves won't get any orders. The manufacturers have plenty of capacity to meet the demand and will have little stomach for capital investment.
Your thoughts?
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Wed Apr 1 09:06:09 2009 CDT #
JT says:
Obama wakes up Joe Sixpack.
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/hot_lists/high_performance/motorsports/obama_orders_chevrolet_and_dodge_out_of_nascar_car_news
JT Wed Apr 1 09:06:52 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Anonymous says:
...“Wusste gar nicht dass hier so viele Deutsch sprechende mitlesen, und bloggen...
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Ja, der Feind wird sehr genau beobachtet ! Hihi.
Werner Wed Apr 1 09:07:59 2009 CDT #
fafhrd says:
The rest of 700 million? You wanna challenge, well there is one!
It's a solution disguised as a problem. 700 million units of "long" pig.
fafhrd Wed Apr 1 09:11:06 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
...within next decade there will be THE GREAT BOOMERS, meaning ONE BILLION youngsters coming to the working age in ASIA...
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And that includes tons and tons of PhDs . If their education is good, then good night Western World !
Werner Wed Apr 1 09:11:55 2009 CDT #
scav says:
Understanding math is, so some degree, about as meaningful as understanding the alphabet. Doesn't mean you have anything meaningful to say or can construct a cogent phrase. It's usally knowing "the other stuff" that allows one to use language or mathematics in any intelligent fashion.
Cancer. Any virus/parasite that proliferates so much as to kill the host. This is too easy. Of course, a part of the trick is in defining what is "the system" of interest and the length of time over which you measure it. If we define death/extinction as the mean and play with the length of time, it's a pretty safe bet that we'll revert to the mean but in the sub-lunar world all sorts of thing get out of control over amounts of time that can pretty much take the fun out of of things.
scav Wed Apr 1 09:14:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Nonfarm private employment decreased 742,000
And when the "real' report comes our on Friday, all the business "news" outlets
can say, "Oh look, only 741000! Much better than expected! Rally! Rally! RallY!
This report could be calculated for that effect.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 09:15:18 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Guest,
I appcreciate the insight. Thank you.
tj& the bear,
I think this view has legs that wage inflation is unlikely even as we inflate. It's not that I believe it will happen that way, but I think there's an argument to be made to feed the masses with the benefits of inflation. On the otherhand, I'm not suggesting immediate inflation, but deflation, and rather brutal inflation even as attempts to print money continue. I think deflation is rather nasty and sticky. If you're looking to hedge it however, I recommend government contracting where you can build-in your billable increases pegged to official inflation.
--bh
blackhat Wed Apr 1 09:18:03 2009 CDT #
kharris says:
Real world system that goes out of control? My amp?
kharris Wed Apr 1 09:21:57 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"Can you name a real "real word system" that goes "out of control"?
Porpoising Le Mans cars?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQbgSe9S54I
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 09:22:05 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
...flutter ... floodng streambeds...
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I am not sure. That's just increased oscillation breaching then some limits. It's not a situation where a system goes "out of control" (i.e. in a chaotic state") by exceeding some "stability criteria" .
Werner Wed Apr 1 09:25:11 2009 CDT #
krid says:
China will take care of itself, ultimately. 700 million unemployed means that they will probably become massively expansionist, attempt to dominate their neighbors even more, and then suffer a massive internal civil war that will kill hundreds of thousands.
This is unavoidable, no? Making matters worse, young men outnumber young women at an ever increasing rate. Back when times "seemed" good, I thought that China would eventually become a military aggressor if for no other reason than to cull the heard... only I thought it would be something like 2020 before things started to boil. That path has been accelerated, IMO.
krid Wed Apr 1 09:33:53 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
P.S. system "out of control"
In the case of increasing oscillation you can predict the outcome (something breaks after a limit is exceeded) whereas in the case of "out of control" no predictions can be made anymore. It's chaotic, you lost control, but nothing needs to break .
Werner Wed Apr 1 09:48:10 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
April Fools! Really the economy is doing great.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 10:14:01 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Some advice for those who continue to stick their heads in the sand.. "It leaves your ass exposed!"
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 11:07:22 2009 CDT #
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