Comments for Stock Market: Up, up and Away!
Nemo says:
Amazing day on light volume.
The criminals are solidly in charge. Tread lightly.
Nemo Mon Mar 23 15:05:53 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
Amazing day on light volume.
Yep, volume was HALF what it was on Friday's big down day. This cannot hold.
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TCA Mon Mar 23 15:07:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
No it wasn't:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC
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Anonymous Mon Mar 23 18:42:22 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Meanwhile, J6P is getting fired, furlough and f--ked every way he turns, every day. Job loss and wealth loss among the 98 percent nobody cares about is staggering. 98 percent can break an awful lot of windows, though.
Meanwhile, J6P is getting fired and furloughed everywhere he turns. Job and wealth job among the 98 percent that nobody cares about is staggering:
http://www.layoffdaily.com/
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:07:31 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/2723730319431473589
CRbot Mon Mar 23 15:08:28 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Wow, and I'm not even drinking
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:09:03 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Wow, and I'm not even drinking
They were drinking for all of us on Wall Street today...
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dryfly Mon Mar 23 15:28:05 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
This is a gift from our dear Obama and Geithner. Smile. The worst is over. Party time boys!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 23 15:09:19 2009 CDT #
Jamie says:
just had to go short....irrational exuberance is back
Jamie Mon Mar 23 15:10:54 2009 CDT #
Alo says:
Awesome! Now, can we have a rally on something other than the government throwing money down a pit?
Alo Mon Mar 23 15:11:33 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:
Box car rally at Joe's. You bring the beer.
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Jackrabbit Mon Mar 23 15:14:12 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Wow... from what I'm reading it sounds like both sides - Keynesians and Austrians alike - are trashing Geitner's plan as nothing but taxpayer theft.
ac Mon Mar 23 15:12:06 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Wow... from what I'm reading it sounds like both sides - Keynesians and Austrians alike - are trashing Geitner's plan as nothing but taxpayer theft.
I heard a call in today on Minn Public Radio - exfed economist turn columnist/college prof was guest - your synopsis pretty much summed up the whole hour long discussion.
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dryfly Mon Mar 23 15:30:31 2009 CDT #
nades says:
SoCal Construction update. We're hard bidding a public school down here. 23 General contractors are bidding on the project. Who wants to be the winning general wins because of an error? This type of game never ends well...
nades Mon Mar 23 15:13:18 2009 CDT #
Joanna says:
All I can think of is the splat that's going to land all over us little folks....
Joanna Mon Mar 23 15:13:49 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
I put the over/under at 90 days before gas returns to $3 per gallon.
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:13:50 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
In other news
“I do think there may be some banks beyond help,” Bair said on a conference call with reporters today
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 15:14:14 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
States looking for something new to tax:
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) - From March Madness brackets to Super Bowl pools to illicit back room wagers, people bet on professional sports games every day. But they can do it legally only in four states, and only two states currently offer state-sanctioned sports wagering. ¶
With Atlantic City casinos in a financial free fall and New Jersey’s budget in shambles, a state lawmaker filed a federal lawsuit Monday against the Justice Department that seeks to overturn a U.S. ban on sports betting. The casinos and their political allies say letting people bet legally on sporting events would let all 50 states in on a lucrative revenue source. ¶
State Sen. Raymond Lesniak, D-Elizabeth, said sports betting already exists, and will continue to whether states tax it or not. ¶
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:14:31 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Because it is nothing but taxpayer theft, ac. All of the bailouts so far have been.
briwerk Mon Mar 23 15:14:46 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
I believe I can fly! I believe I can touch the sky! Jordan, the ultimate Bull has vanquished Ditka, the evil Bear!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 23 15:15:02 2009 CDT #
8 Ball says:
Alo:
Totally agree. The gubbmint just offered to spend over 2 trillion over the past week. It is going to be a long spring and summer as the reality of the recession sinks in.
8 Ball Mon Mar 23 15:15:18 2009 CDT #
Wampeter of My Karass says:
WORLD-CLASS selling opportunity.
Wampeter of My Karass Mon Mar 23 15:15:28 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Overheard from a co-worker: "They're FINALLY using the original TARP money for precisely what it was intended for." I just started at him and bit my tongue.
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:17:11 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
wow is right! but sustainable gains (that aren't given back with a few months) rarely occur when there is such huge volatility. The whipsaw moves up and down are not indicative of a healthy, sustainable market. Believe me, i'm no bear, i prefer a long term rising trend in markets that reflect strength in underlying fundamentals, but the data we're seeing in the general economy and the market doesn't get me thinking this is a sign of that. I hope i'm wrong, who knows.
the man from nantucket Mon Mar 23 15:17:12 2009 CDT #
mp says:
A tragedy of epoch proportions is in the works.
mp Mon Mar 23 15:17:24 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"A tragedy of epoch proportions is in the works."
I agree. It's a matter of how far out that event horizon is that has me squirming right now...
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RockyR Mon Mar 23 15:22:30 2009 CDT #
nades says:
I'm beginning to believe.... :(
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nades Mon Mar 23 15:22:35 2009 CDT #
sdbri says:
We're up another pixel or two!
Note that it takes a 20% gain to reverse a 10% drop from peak at current levels. But good luck!
sdbri Mon Mar 23 15:17:34 2009 CDT #
sdbri says:
Geithner is the Donald Rumsfeld of the War on Taxpayers. While both men spoke for the President, Geithner is the only man distinguished enough to have defrauded two Presidents in a row.
sdbri Mon Mar 23 15:19:23 2009 CDT #
Rajesh says:
So now we have an Obama bear market and an Obama bull market. I can't wait until the same stock market writers who were criticizing him for 'causing' a bear market just last month start writing article about what a great president Obama has been and how he 'caused' a bull market by his wonderful policies.
Rajesh Mon Mar 23 15:19:54 2009 CDT #
sdbri says:
Wow, check the after market prices on non-financials, down 1% 2% within 4 minutes. Somebody's cashing out.
sdbri Mon Mar 23 15:21:02 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
I'm glad I went back to cash at the end of the day today.
This is priceless:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay0Xgdn2tUK8&refer=home
RockyR Mon Mar 23 15:21:23 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Got SKF?
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Anonymous Mon Mar 23 18:44:10 2009 CDT #
Interesting Times says:
The last batch of suckers are getting ready to be robbed blind. Incredible. Criminal.
Interesting Times Mon Mar 23 15:21:53 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The last batch of suckers are getting ready to be robbed blind."
I hardly doubt it is the last batch. There is one born every minute.
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 15:23:41 2009 CDT #
Topher says:
"Awesome! Now, can we have a rally on something other than the government throwing money down a pit?"
Where would that rally come from? ;)
Topher Mon Mar 23 15:22:01 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
We are so screwed.... When's the last time we had a president who didn't totally screw us over... Eisenhower?
Why even vote... I already knew the republicans were out to take all my money and give it to rich people.. obama and his buddies are doing the exact same thing
meet the new boss.. same as the old boss
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 15:22:31 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
meet the new boss.. same as the old boss
A couple of days after the election I was back in Hyde Park eating dinner at a burger joint. The wait staff was wearing "Obama Eats Here" t-shirts, the English guy at the next table was having his picture taken with one of the waitresses showing off the shirt, everybody was smiling and happy and over the sound system was "Won't Get Fooled Again."
A wonderful, surreal moment.
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Yalt Mon Mar 23 15:46:48 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Well, as of today, I'm officially now all in in my puts account.
It's going to be painful to watch if this +22% rally becomes a +50% rally! But that's why everything I buy expires in Jan 2010 or Jan 2011.
ShortCourage Mon Mar 23 15:22:43 2009 CDT #
Dust Bowling for Dollars says:
Let's see if this bear can stick to the eerie mirroring of the 1929 DOW bear over the next few weeks. If so, this 6% will be given back very shortly.
Dust Bowling for Dollars Mon Mar 23 15:22:58 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Jordan, the ultimate Bull has vanquished Ditka, the evil Bear!
Good line for today. Like it better than the puppets, but they're okay, too.
sportsfan Mon Mar 23 15:23:18 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Hey, mp.
A tragedy of epoch proportions is in the works.
So was Conjure early on his "bond crash" call?
Nemo Mon Mar 23 15:23:42 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Since the recession began in December 2007, Latino unemployment has risen 4.7 percentage points, to 10.9 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Black unemployment has risen 4.5 points, to 13.4 percent. White unemployment has risen 2.9 points, to 7.3 percent.
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:24:18 2009 CDT #
Newman (Hello Jerry....) says:
Short!
Before market closes!
Too Late! >:o
Newman (Hello Jerry....) Mon Mar 23 15:24:58 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Gambling revenues have dropped significantly since the start of the recession. Legalizing sports betting is a zero sum proposition. It will likely draw bettors from other legal venues. People that like to gamble illegally will continue to do so.
Kung Fu Panda Mon Mar 23 15:25:42 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Yeah, but if states think there's even $50 to be paid, they're gonna go for it. Every state for itself.
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That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:27:53 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Sell at Dow 8250.
Michael Mon Mar 23 15:26:43 2009 CDT #
JS123 says:
It seems to me now that Hoover gets an unfair bad rap. He at least never envisioned committing such a crime to save his political life.
JS123 Mon Mar 23 15:27:37 2009 CDT #
Token Bull says:
Spread. These broken wings.
Token Bull Mon Mar 23 15:29:10 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
I don't know what to say.
And with me, that's rare!
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 23 15:29:34 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"We are so screwed.... When's the last time we had a president who didn't totally screw us over... Eisenhower?
Why even vote... I already knew the republicans were out to take all my money and give it to rich people.. obama and his buddies are doing the exact same thing
meet the new boss.. same as the old boss"
YOu mean -- Wall Street? They do use both parties as sock puppets.
I have said that Obama would wise up in about a year. Even Krugman implies that. He simply thinks a year is too late.
By "wise up," I mean cave into the screams from the prols and shaft his handlers, or accept that he is presiding over the Mexicanization of the U.S. of A.
Savior or stooge; he's too smart not to figure it out eventually and make a decision. Hell, most of us here are smart enough. The last guy... made his years ago.
If Obama decides for the people, we're in for an interesting ride, much more perilous than it needed to be -- or somebody will put a bullet through him in short order.
http://www.talesfromthecoast.blogspot.com
Bob Dobbs Mon Mar 23 15:30:39 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Dust Bowling for Dollars says:
Let's see if this bear can stick to the eerie mirroring of the 1929 DOW bear over the next few weeks. If so, this 6% will be given back very shortly
Here are the bear market rallies that occurred during the Great Depression. We are likely to see 3 or more before it's over.
November 1929 - April 1930: +48%
June 1930 - September 1930: +12%
December 1930 - February 1931: +21%
May 1931 - June 1931: +27%
October 1932 - November 1931: +35%
July 1932 - September 1932: +72%
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/228893/2591709.aspx
popeye Mon Mar 23 15:31:41 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
now that i've finally read the ppif fact sheet, i'm glad the fdic is involved in this. while sheila bair has her faults, she clearly has no love for either the money center banks or geithner/summers. plan's far from perfect, but better than if geithner and summers were running the show on their own.
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 15:32:11 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
My mother's house sold for a decently reasonable price in Baltimore. A realtor referred me a deal. I will carry on as if the World Hadn't ended.
I still think we are in a "phony war" situation. Things are quiet for now, but things are in motion behind the current, and as phrased above, the event
horizon awaits.
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 23 15:32:27 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Depression-istas are starting to get worried in my circle of friends...LOL!!!
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 15:32:36 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Thanks, Liz, I needed a chuckle.
sportsfan Mon Mar 23 15:33:21 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
If March finishes the way it started, the first quarter will be very strong for my company...
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 15:33:53 2009 CDT #
GS Trading Desk says:
We are witnessing the dawning of a new age.
Don't be left behind.
GS Trading Desk Mon Mar 23 15:34:15 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
geithner's plan is simply a continuation of the massive theft that's been going on.. for well about the last 30 years.... money flowing upward.. rich get way richer... everyone else screwed.
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 15:34:16 2009 CDT #
Dash says:
from eschatonblog.com
Monday, March 23, 2009
Overthinking
People are spending too much time trying to make sense of a plan which doesn't make much sense, certainly not as advertised.
The Geithner plan will:
1) Funnel more government money to the banksters.
2) Allow the banksters to pretend for a bit longer that their hunks of big shitpile aren't quite as shitty as we thought by using the bullshit price that this process comes up with, allowing too big to fail businesses to stay in business for a bit longer.
This might make sense if you truly believe the magic market you believe in fervently is genuinely incorrectly pricing the assets, perhaps because you genuinely believe that if you could turn around the economy fast enough that you could massively reduce expected foreclosures.
But if you genuinely believe that, I don't think you've been paying too much attention to just what's been going on in the housing market. I don't think you paid too much attention 3 years ago when you didn't realize that it didn't quite make sense that so many people could afford $700,000+ homes in Orange County. I don't think you paid too much attention to the degree of speculation and outright fraud that was happening in parts of the country.
Dash Mon Mar 23 15:34:24 2009 CDT #
the_economist says:
We need to find a tall tree and string up a few politicians.
the_economist Mon Mar 23 15:34:55 2009 CDT #
gab says:
I don't know. If everybody here hates it, can everybody here be right?
gab Mon Mar 23 15:35:27 2009 CDT #
steinly says:
uh-oh, looks like the "angry pig" formation
which implies a "snout" formation at 400
then we find out if it is a "lonely pig" or a "kissing pig"
steinly Mon Mar 23 15:36:38 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
I love how the market has risen so much in the past few weeks, and yet today's New Highs list across both NYSE and Nasdaq is so short that it fits on one screen with room to spare. Where's the leadership of the next round of economic growth?
When the NASDAQ came out of its dot-com crushing in March 2003, the new highs list was at least 25 names and quickly zoomed into the hundreds. Ditto for the NYSE new highs list. (Try charting $NYHGH or $NAHGH at http://www.stockcharts.com , selecting the 2002-2004 period, to see for yourself...)
Until that changes, the interpretation has to be that the only cause for the rally is a bunch of doomed zombie corps's being given a few more months of subsidized "life".
Wisdom Speaker Mon Mar 23 15:37:34 2009 CDT #
z says:
Gingrich/Kucinich 2012
z Mon Mar 23 15:38:26 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- Gingrich has always been one of my prime candidates for 'head on a pike'-
Parent Post
notional billionaire Mon Mar 23 21:29:58 2009 CDT #
crispy & cole says:
gab says:Today, 1:35:27 PM“I don't know. If everybody here hates it, can everybody here be right?
_________________________________
No!
crispy & cole Mon Mar 23 15:39:28 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
well, i tried to warn uber bears. Now it is time to warn uber bulls.
Be aware, just because something is down so much, it does not mean value is out there. Real value is always where positive cash flows are!
8-)
Comrade De Chaos Mon Mar 23 15:39:35 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
Be aware, just because something is down so much, it does not mean value is out there. Real value is always where positive cash flows are!
That's no guarantee of value either. Subprime loans and pay-option ARMs had tremendous positive cash flows...until the cash stopped flowing.
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Yalt Mon Mar 23 15:50:40 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
So, where Volcker's stamp of approval and his endorcement of making certain that TOO BIG 2 FAIL lives on into perpetuity. Because that's what this looting is all about.
bearly Mon Mar 23 15:39:53 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Citiprank,
Gimme a break, even GDI ended with the "New Deal" - not the "Fair Deal". Did anybody hear about a new rule requiring fair ?? I sure didn't.
popeye Mon Mar 23 15:39:59 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
I don't think you paid too much attention to the degree of speculation and outright fraud that was happening in parts of the country.
Anecdotal evidence. The few policy people that I know think that the housing crisis is caused by the recession. They don't understand that the recession is caused by the deflation of the housing/credit bubble. :(
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 15:40:27 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
"The few policy people that I know think that the housing crisis is caused by the recession."
I certainly hope that you can educate them before they make any more policy!
Parent Post
sm_landlord Mon Mar 23 16:05:01 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Gingrich/Kucinich 2012"
I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.
RockyR Mon Mar 23 15:40:31 2009 CDT #
JT says:
Tax deadline coming soon. Priming for all those IRA contributors. =-O
JT Mon Mar 23 15:40:37 2009 CDT #
Methuselah says:
I see 840 on the S&P 500 in the next few weeks. 8-)
Methuselah Mon Mar 23 15:41:05 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
Bob Dobbs I hope you are right...... because if Obama doesn't wake up.. then I have no idea what the next step is... 3rd party? revolt? or worse
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 15:41:39 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Miami-Dade County has an ordinance that goes into effect on April 1st providing that foreclosures need to be inspected, at a cost of 300 for the county, by an architect or engineer and the buyer be informed of any building/zoning code violations. Work to be done by an architect/engineer (glad there will be work, albeit boring for architects), which will cost more, of course. Foreclosing lender/seller doesn't have to fix anything just disclose. But suppose a buyer buys, and there is no Certificate of Use given after the sale, will some poor buyer be persecuted 15 years from now when she/he sells, not having been warned against this. And some of these houses are going to be found to be uninhabitable.
Fellow CR Floridians, this is--so far--Dade County only.
Rumor has it other counties will follow.
Dade County, home of the weird.
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 23 15:42:28 2009 CDT #
Shultzie says:
Thank you Lawyerliz
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Shultzie Mon Mar 23 16:03:17 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Another ordinance to be ignored.
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Anonymous Mon Mar 23 21:00:26 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Gingrich/Kucinich for what? President of the United Autonomous Region of Eastern North America?
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:42:32 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"Gimme a break, even GDI ended with the "New Deal" - not the "Fair Deal". Did anybody hear about a new rule requiring fair ?? I sure didn't."
What are you saying.. that it's ok for the govt to redistribute money to the very rich from the poor and middle class? If you think that's ok... well I don't.
Prior to the 1980s there was much lower wealth and income inequality.. that's a fact.
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 15:43:16 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
I still think we are in a "phony war" situation.
Good analogy.
We recently sold my late father's house and got more than he thought we'd ever get [he saw the bubble & it popping WAY before all but the most visionary did - didn't live to see the actual pop but told me it was gonna happen along w/ the stock market bust - he was batting 1000 right up to the end].
Relitters told us it would fetch $X... he thought maybe it would sell for 2/3s X at most... we got 3/4s X and took the money and ran.
Took two years though a lot of that was 'estate hassles' and deferred repairs that we couldn't get bubble drunk construction workers to touch until they were out of work for a season or two. What a pain... when I die I want my kids to leave my body in the house and burn it down - Viking style... I am part Norwegian after all.
dryfly Mon Mar 23 15:43:53 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"If so, this 6% will "
not 6%, we wend from ~ 650 to over 820, which is 25%.
I wouldn't look for much meaning in anything that does not shine some positive/high yeilding cash.
:-$
:-$
:-$
Comrade De Chaos Mon Mar 23 15:44:00 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
“"Gingrich/Kucinich 2012"
LOL!!
Ginrich? WTF? Any man who leaves his sick wife is a scum bag...including McSame
crispy and cole Mon Mar 23 15:44:02 2009 CDT #
Baa says:
““"Gingrich/Kucinich 2012"
LOL!!
Ginrich? WTF? Any man who leaves his sick wife is a scum bag...including McSame
Yeah, he should have just banged around on her like Edwards your left/right hypocrite :-P
Parent Post
Baa Mon Mar 23 17:50:31 2009 CDT #
Seb says:
volume picked up a lot after 2:30. I am confused here. But still tilting towards a short.
Seb Mon Mar 23 15:44:04 2009 CDT #
chacona says:
Not everybody is convinced...
According to Bloomberg, in February 11, the Bank of America strategist Richard Bernstein dismissed Geithner´s plan with these words: “Financial stocks are likely to be as toxic to portfolio performance as banks’ assets are to their balance sheets,” and “The history of bubbles clearly shows that the significant consolidation of the financial sector is inevitable...The latest Treasury program is simply another attempt to stymie the consolidation process.”
And now? Well, this is what Bloomberg tells us:
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell bank stocks after they rallied 12 percent today because the Treasury Department’s plan to buy toxic assets won’t stop profits from dropping, Bank of America Corp.’s Richard Bernstein said.
Removing devalued loans and securities from banks’ balance sheets is a short-term solution that will delay the problem’s ultimate solution, which is bank takeovers, Bernstein said. The government won’t be able to inflate the prices banks receive for selling bad assets indefinitely, he added...
Apparently Tim has still some work to do...
chacona Mon Mar 23 15:44:22 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Jesse:
Special Notice
CRbot Mon Mar 23 15:45:07 2009 CDT #
km4 says:
The Big Casino stays open only when it can afford to avoid welshing on its gambling debts ( CDO, CDS ) with easy bailout money.
The US economy is just one BIG Ponzi scheme where elite monied interests still make the rules even for shitty bets and where US taxpayers play the fool and foot the bill.
km4 Mon Mar 23 15:45:30 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3922/bernakeillusionist.jpg
too funny :-D
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 15:46:11 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- too bad the spoofers blew it and botched the spelling of his name- otherwise, pretty good.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Mon Mar 23 21:42:19 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
When was the last time we had an action this big that Krugman was 100 percent opposed to? He'd better watch his back.
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Mon Mar 23 15:46:20 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“"Gimme a break, even GDI ended with the "New Deal" - not the "Fair Deal".
The Great Depression didn't end with the "New Deal". By the late 1930s the "New Deal" was largely considered a failure. Even people like Krugman don't seem to defend it directly - they say stuff like "WWII shows that if only we'd spent more it would have worked."
ac Mon Mar 23 15:47:48 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
By the late 1930s the "New Deal" was largely considered a failure.
Without exception, every single person I know who can remember the mid-30s in the US talks about the WPA and says something like "thank God they got Dad a job or I don't know what we would have done."
There's more to economics than simply making the pie higher.
Parent Post
Yalt Mon Mar 23 15:58:59 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Just Say No to All Incumbents. New T-shirts, bumper stickers and coffee mug campaign.
The tax payer is getting the shaft at every turn of the bailout frenzy. I am voting against every politician endorsing these bailout plans in November.
Michael Mon Mar 23 15:47:57 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Michael,
That was my thought as well...I am voting against every state and national incumbent in the upcoming midterm elections.
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Kung Fu Panda Mon Mar 23 16:55:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Great. A Republican majority. I guess an inactive government is better than giving even more money to the bankers.
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 17:37:18 2009 CDT #
NYCityBoy says:
We are negotiating our 2009 apartment lease renewal. Their first renewal offer was the same as 2008. I emailed them that I thought that was nuts. They called today and said they would go down by $200. If they say $200 there must be more there.
Maybe Timmay could see what's going on under his own nose. Of course I do live in a pretty questionable neighborhood. It is The West Village. That was a joke.
The signs of economic flatlining are everywhere. Empty storefronts litter nearly every block. On some blocks they come close to outnumbering those that are open. There is now 8,000,000 square feet of office space available in Manhattan. They expect at least 300,000 lost jobs in New York City.
The only way Geithner's "plan" (the final solution is more like it) works is if they can get it all booming again. They are swimming the Hudson with a 200 pound lead weight tied to their ankle. Luckily for them, it will be the United States that drowns while The Masters of the Universe inherit what's left of the earth. It's a sorry day.
NYCityBoy Mon Mar 23 15:48:24 2009 CDT #
duke of con dao says:
I lived in the City for 24 years... now I live in gangster land. curious as to what you mean by west village being a joke... CRE? or RE?
Parent Post
duke of con dao Mon Mar 23 23:07:35 2009 CDT #
Token Bull says:
And learn to fly again, learn to be so free.
Token Bull Mon Mar 23 15:48:26 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
Sebastian is still short...lol!! that is too funny, he missed the short from S&P 1500 to 750, then went short and then the market runs up 23% and he is short...bahahahahha
crispy and cole Mon Mar 23 15:48:40 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
bi-lo (for those from the South) filed for BK. Surprise, surprise, it's owned by the notorious PE firm, Lone Star. Wonder which regional banks are holding the debt on that dog.
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 15:50:17 2009 CDT #
Dan says:
sad thing is - how many people will come home from work tonight and here the Dow was up 500 points and think the economy is fixed, and everything is all better now
Dan Mon Mar 23 15:50:19 2009 CDT #
NYCityBoy says:
"how many people will come home from work tonight and here the Dow was up 500 points and think the economy is fixed"
That would be called The Vast Majority. And like they used to do in the old days of wrestling Mr. Joe the Consumer will get a surprise kick to the kidneys by Mr. Market the Mad Maniac. "But I thought Timmay had fixed it", he will mutter as he nurses his wounds, yet again.
Parent Post
NYCityBoy Mon Mar 23 15:54:09 2009 CDT #
mossypete says:
When I moved my 401K out of equities into money markets and Govt bonds in Aug 2007 and suggested to my wife she do the same she laughed at me.
In the fall of 2008 when the Dow was still above 10,000 I again suggested to get out. She said it's temporary and she doesn't need the money yet ( she's retiring next month)
At 9000 I suggested.....
at 8000 I suggested.....
At 7000 I suggested......and showed her dshort's 4 bad bear chart, and she finally started paying attention
She finally pulled the trigger at ~6800 on the dow -
This week I'm in the doghouse because she "lost" $$$ for following my advice just before the dow rebounded 1000 points
Sheesh - I'm shutting up now!
Parent Post
mossypete Mon Mar 23 17:26:14 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Tomorrow, we have Geithner and Bernanke testilying to the house.
Bair will speak to the Senate.
reptillian Mon Mar 23 15:50:21 2009 CDT #
NYCityBoy says:
"Tomorrow, we have Geithner and Bernanke testilying to the house.
Bair will speak to the Senate."
If there is an ETF for bullshit it will skyrocket tomorrow.
Parent Post
NYCityBoy Mon Mar 23 15:54:56 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"Ginrich? WTF? Any man who leaves his sick wife is a scum bag...including McSame"
Bill Clinton and John Edwards for $500! *DONT_KNOW*
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 23 15:52:14 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Hillary wasnt sick, and neither of them left their wives, just cheated on them.
Parent Post
Dirk van Dijk Mon Mar 23 17:14:11 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Dirk - I'm glad you're here to keep the record straight-
Parent Post
notional billionaire Mon Mar 23 21:51:18 2009 CDT #
FFDIC says:
FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair Statement on the Legacy Loans Program
FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said, "It has been clear for some time that troubled loans and securities have depressed market perceptions of banks and impeded new lending. Difficult market conditions have complicated efforts to sell these troubled assets because potential buyers have not had access to financing. The Legacy Loans Program aligns the interests of the government with private investors to provide financing and market-based pricing, and is a critical step forward in the process of restoring clarity to the markets. While there are inherent challenges to implementing a program of this magnitude quickly, the framework announced today provides the foundation upon which the FDIC will begin to build immediately."
"The FDIC intends to move forward with this program in a methodical and transparent fashion. We will provide the opportunity for public comment on critical aspects of the program prior to implementation."
"Today’s actions demonstrate the strong commitment of the FDIC, Fed, Treasury and the Administration to use creative and innovative programs to address the serious economic issues facing our country. The Legacy Loans Program, while providing substantial upside potential to private investors and the government, will also clear these troubled assets from banks balance sheets – enabling them to lend and restore economic growth."
FFDIC Mon Mar 23 15:52:30 2009 CDT #
Kiwi says:
Headline:NZ better placed than most countries, says IMF.
"New Zealand's economy is tipped by the International Monetary Fund to shrink by 2 per cent this year in the global crisis it has dubbed the Great Recession.
However, fund mission chief for Australia and New Zealand Ray Brooks told The Dominion Post yesterday that New Zealand was relatively better placed than other advanced countries, thanks to its low public debt, sound banks, flexible policies and mix of exports."
Source;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/2286029/NZ-better-placed-than-most-countries-says-IMF
Kiwi Mon Mar 23 15:53:27 2009 CDT #
scone says:
"A second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience" -- Sam Johnson. You could say the same about the market right now.
scone Mon Mar 23 15:55:59 2009 CDT #
duke of con dao says:
scone... your quote is wrong, Johnson said that about marriage in general. I used it in a wedding speech in Stockholm some years back.
Parent Post
duke of con dao Mon Mar 23 23:10:24 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"sad thing is - how many people will come home from work tonight and here the Dow was up 500 points and think the economy is fixed, and everything is all better now"
Except they won't... not anyone... too many unemployed.. under-employed.. hopelessly indebted and with destroyed 401Ks.
People are starting to wake up..... and get very angry...
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 15:56:06 2009 CDT #
NYCityBoy says:
"Except they won't... not anyone... too many unemployed.. under-employed.. hopelessly indebted and with destroyed 401Ks."
I disagree. They are still in denial or clueless. Our friend that has put herself into HELOC hell asked my wife this weekend when we were going to buy. We should look into it. "Prices are looking good." She honestly thinks that buying in Manhattan on March 23, 2009 would be a good idea. She is not unique, in any sense of the word, from my experience.
Parent Post
NYCityBoy Mon Mar 23 15:59:18 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"People are starting to wake up..... and get very angry..."
That still sounds awfully hopeful to me. The one triumph of political correctness seems to be fact that talk of our current travails is expressly limited around the water cooler. For people to get angry together, they have to be able to talk about it first.
Parent Post
RockyR Mon Mar 23 16:05:41 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
That still sounds awfully hopeful to me. The one triumph of political correctness seems to be fact that talk of our current travails is expressly limited around the water cooler. For people to get angry together, they have to be able to talk about it first.
Was it Thoreau who said "The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation"? Or maybe Emerson - I forget & too lazy to Google. True then and truer now.
Parent Post
dryfly Mon Mar 23 16:09:22 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
The Great Unclog of 2009: Industrial Strength Drano, Anyone?
http://bit.ly/19ULm8
"Why Paul Krugman, James Galbraith, Simon Johnson and John Hussman are right and Brad Delong, Tim Geithner and Lawrence Summers are very, very wrong."
"A quick history lesson on the market's overvaluation of mortgage assets. Anyone else remember the UBS ALT-A firesale. Early last Summer, they sold a $25 billion portfolio of ALT-A junk at 64 cents on the dollar that was marked at 91 cents if memory serves. This was considered a desperate move at the time for UBS and a bargain for the buyer. Oh, but what do they say about time?
How's that buyer doing now? He's dead. Killed by the drop to 25 cents that those assets are currently worth. My point is that the market has been consistently WRONG on the value of these assets for 12 months. There has been an over-valuation of assets every step of the way down (how ya doin, Wilbur Ross?). Every single bid has proven to be too high, and there's little reason to believe today is any different."
The Daily Bail Mon Mar 23 15:56:51 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
The Great Depression didn't end with the "New Deal". By the late 1930s the "New Deal" was largely considered a failure.
Wrong - it was wildly successful and did exactly what it was designed to do - avert revolution and buy time. Compare with what happened in St. Petersburg, Rome, Madrid & Berlin it was a smashing success. Lenin was half right... the masses want opium but it isn't 'religion' they want it is 'stimulus' & resultant make work.
dryfly Mon Mar 23 15:57:02 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Wrong - it was wildly successful and did exactly what it was designed to do - avert revolution and buy time."
You're right. It bought time until the world war started. After which, the victors made economic hay rebuilding newly conquered lands.
World war isn't an option, this time. So, hopefully, this won't be a repeat of the GD.
Parent Post
RockyR Mon Mar 23 16:07:22 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
You're right. It bought time until the world war started. After which, the victors made economic hay rebuilding newly conquered lands.
World war isn't an option, this time. So, hopefully, this won't be a repeat of the GD.
Even without the war depression would have eventually ended as they always do UNLESS there is political & social chaos... that is how a depression can turn into a multi-generational 'dark ages'... to a great extent the New Deal assured we would not go down the St. Petersburg or Berlin path... and dragging it out to make sure we didn't go down either of those was well worth the 'wasteful spending'.
The thing about the New Deal that was different than our TALFs and TARPs today is that the New Deal focused on getting workers working not bankers banking. That small detail has been missed.
Parent Post
dryfly Mon Mar 23 16:16:33 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
@dryfly - no argument with you, there. I made this very point in a post a few threads back.
My only trifles with "New Deal"-type tactics are ideological ones. I think its better for the world to deleverage, break down and then rebuild itself into something new than it is for it to fight to maintain what was at the expense of excessive debt and eventual inflation. In my view, one accelerates human progress while the other holds it back.
Unfortunately, the world broke own in a bad way with World War II. I guess maintaining status quo is better than that /sigh.
I'll follow Popeye's advice and pipe down. Free thought not cited by someone else's research being off limits and all.
Parent Post
RockyR Mon Mar 23 16:25:44 2009 CDT #
Federalism 101 says:
the New Deal focused on getting workers working not bankers banking. That small detail has been missed.
---------------------------------------------------
Reconstruction (1863-1890's)> Panic of 1873, 1893, 1907(The Long Depression)
Epoch-scheming to what end? The era of The New Deal may be over and we may see Berlin .....
Bernanke=Illusionist, I just had a Bullwinkle moment...
Parent Post
Federalism 101 Mon Mar 23 16:45:22 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Bernanke=Illusionist, I just had a Bullwinkle moment..."
Watch me pull a recovery out of my hat?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 17:30:31 2009 CDT #
OkieLawyer says:
@dryfly:
Re: "make work"
I don't think "make work" is the correct term. I think what is often referred to by that phrase is actually neglected work that people don't think about until a slowdown comes due to what economists call "permissive waste" (at least that is what I think they call it).
Parent Post
OkieLawyer Mon Mar 23 17:00:57 2009 CDT #
Seb says:
crisp & cole: Unfortunately my Wright B model was indicating w/ a lag. It now firmly says: short.
Seb Mon Mar 23 15:57:29 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
I wonder how pissed people would be if they realized that their tax money was being funneled to banks in the HOPE that it is lent back to them at a profit
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 15:58:00 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
ac,
With respect, "There is much discussion in the media of late that FDR’s “New Deal” policies were detrimental to economic growth during the 1930s. But we need to make a distinction between New Deal policies that dealt with increased federal government spending and those that dealt
with the direct interference in markets. Perhaps the New Deal policies that directly interfered with markets were responsible for keeping the unemployment rate from falling as much as it otherwise would have. But as was discussed at the outset of this commentary, real GDP grew at a compound annual rate of growth of 9.4% in the four years ended 1937. "
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0902/document/ec020909.pdf
popeye Mon Mar 23 15:59:24 2009 CDT #
jo6pac says:
Yep were from the govt. and we are here to help you. Scary and to many will believe it as more people get layed off. Off to by another 100# of beans/rice and box of ammo.
jo6pac
jo6pac Mon Mar 23 15:59:49 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
You can still find ammo?
Parent Post
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 21:06:40 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
@NYCityBoy
I mean to say "not anymore" instead of "not anyone"... I do think you are right.. a lot of people still don't get it... BUT I also think a lot more people get it today than did even a month or 2 ago.. and the trends is towards acceptance
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 16:00:57 2009 CDT #
NYCityBoy says:
"I do think you are right.. a lot of people still don't get it... BUT I also think a lot more people get it today than did even a month or 2 ago.. and the trends is towards acceptance"
I think the percentage of people that "get it" has indeed skyrocketed. In 2007 we were probably at 1% or so. Now, it must be as high as about 5%. That is a 500% increase in only two years. I am so proud of my fellow Americans. http://js-kit.com/extra/tiny_mce/plugins/emotions/img/smiley-surprised.gif
Parent Post
NYCityBoy Mon Mar 23 16:03:04 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
I have also just added the following 2 stories:
The complete Geithner interview with Erin Burnett Banking Apologista plus the Transcript:
http://bit.ly/C61u
And Video and Transcript of James Galbraith saying the Geithner Plan is Extremely Dangerous:
http://bit.ly/fMas1
The Galbraith videos are outstanding.
The Daily Bail Mon Mar 23 16:01:20 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Toxic Reaction
reptillian Mon Mar 23 16:12:13 2009 CDT #
JP says:
Without exception, every single person I know who can remember the mid-30s in the US talks about the WPA and says something like "thank God they got Dad a job or I don't know what we would have done."
Likewise for the CCC.
JP Mon Mar 23 16:12:17 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
It would be nice if some of the frequent posters LOOKED AT THE FACTS before posting - otherwise we get lost in a maze of political clap trap.
If anyone can dispute the Great Depression facts cited in the following source, I would be very interested.
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0902/document/ec020909.pdf
popeye Mon Mar 23 16:12:38 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Lead, follow, or get out of the way.
Michael Mon Mar 23 16:14:52 2009 CDT #
Joanna says:
My household is using this pause in the end-of-the-world fun to finish up any of our projects/plans/purchases that require cash and/or 2 steady incomes.
No matter how things turn out, we'll have lined up as many ducks as we can, and hopefully have enough cushion to pick up a small pasture w/shop down the road from us that's been on the market for over a year.
Joanna Mon Mar 23 16:15:44 2009 CDT #
cd says:
dont know if this was posted..update
china looking to replace dollar
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/03/23/2009-03-23T111449Z_01_PEK184558_RTRIDST_0_CHINA-SDR-UPDATE-1.html
cd Mon Mar 23 16:19:55 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
dont know if this was posted..update
china looking to replace dollar
If they do they will have to replace the US consumer as customer of last resort. Those two are as coupled as yin & yang.
Parent Post
dryfly Mon Mar 23 16:21:45 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Thread Music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mCoOlUjhlc
(I want to grow up to be a) Debaser by the Pixies, this one is belatedly going out to Timmy G for last Wednesday which reminds me I should also spin up Eight Days a Week by the Beatles for him and the skeleton crew as well
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:20:13 2009 CDT #
The Great Tupuli says:
Next stop: DOW 15000 @ 15% unemployment!
The Great Tupuli Mon Mar 23 16:21:37 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Bachman a correspondent behind enemy lines; wants everyone armed and dangerous
reptillian Mon Mar 23 16:21:39 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
...............I told you folks a month ago..........remember?..........
Jay D. Mon Mar 23 16:23:28 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
China wants a lot of things. Some are more expensive than others
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:23:44 2009 CDT #
snacky says:
Good explanation of "Why The Geithner Plan Is So Complex": http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-the-geithner-plan-is-so-complex-2009-3 In a nutshell, it has to do with accounting games to ensure the official federal debt doesn't rise (until they actually sustain losses from these dangerous programs)
snacky Mon Mar 23 16:23:50 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
BEAR TRAP, BEAR TRAP, BEWARE BEAR BEWARE!
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 16:23:52 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:
QUESTION:
The loans are non-recourse. But are they also unsecured?!?!?!
In the Treasury's example, $100 (face) assets, carried at $90 are purchased at $84. The Fed and Equity partner puts up $12 ($6 each). If unsecured, the Investment Manager could immediately sell the toxic assets for $50.
Bank writes down $6
Tsy and Equity partner default on loan and divvy up $38 gain ($19 each!)
FDIC loses $34, Tsy gives FDIC it's $19 gain. FDIC loses $15 (better than $34!)
For it's uber valuable expertise in valuing the toxic waste AND thereby saving the poor taxpayer $19, Private Equity would thereby be rewarded with a 300%+ return!
Actually, it makes more sense for the Govt to make the IM wait until all toxic assets are off bank balance sheets before sales are allowed. Then the Tsy would have accomplished its goal: a true market for the toxic crap.
So, does anyone know if the loans are secured?
Jackrabbit Mon Mar 23 16:24:36 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
UST announced that it was taking over Maiden Lane and the AIG unwinding from the Fed. Any idea what that's all about?
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 16:24:41 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Lament of 2009/2010:
"I could have got out at 7800."
Look, this isn't a market. Heck this isn't even a gambling den anymore. This is an asset stripping house.
Everyone has this chance. How many will take the last lifeboat?
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 16:24:47 2009 CDT #
cd says:
dryfly...
not so much anymore....weekend reaffirmed it as most people I know are talking about living simple....without the toxic junk from china....and they have money....
cd Mon Mar 23 16:25:46 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
25 cents on the dollar only? I could easily believe that for 2nd mtges of recent vintage, in fact, I could believe 2 cents on the dollar. But even if the house price is off 60%, shouldn't the recovery amount be more than 25%?
And people who went thru the Great D disagreed violently about FDR for the rest of their lives. My grandmother, who died in the mid-60s hated him until she went senile. I don't think there is any resolving this for another 100 years.
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 23 16:27:15 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"My grandmother, who died in the mid-60s hated him until she went senile."
I'll feel that way about the politicians who are defending their friends and associates today with my current and future labor for the rest of my life, too.
Parent Post
RockyR Mon Mar 23 16:30:50 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Lawyerliz
I forget what the norm is, but I think foreclosed properties tend to sell for 20% below market price. Then you have to add up the fees to the servicer, fees to the bank, fees to the realtor.
Then you have to reconcile the modelled price (a healthy mortgage is worth more than the principal), with the below market sale price after high fees
just thinking out loud, not even sure where 25¢/$ comes from
If it's a CDO, well that has more to do with the product's structure than any individual underlying asset. Maybe even a non-cdo MBS pool employing leverage? Maybe outstanding liens or mandated repair work?
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:35:05 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
caveat: I think the 20% figure represented after fees, but probably also was reflective of a foreclosure market not at maximum workload capacity
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:36:08 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
mp says:Today, 1:17:24 PM PDT
A tragedy of epoch proportions is in the works.
Translation: "Conjure is worried if the lead lining is thick enough."
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 16:27:16 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Basel Too,
The Fed is not allowed to loan at a loss, must be time to reconcile balance sheets I guess. If losses showed up on the Fed's books, Congress would presumably have a free hand to interfere
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:28:17 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"If losses showed up on the Fed's books, Congress would presumably have a free hand to interfere"
Why would they? Bankers pay for their elections too.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 17:20:36 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
dryfly correctly intones: "The thing about the New Deal that was different than our TALFs and TARPs today is that the New Deal focused on getting workers working not bankers banking. That small detail has been missed."
The problem is we have a Federal that was raised in a sub-universe where banking is considered productive work and not a necessary drag on productive activity.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 16:29:26 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
EHP: thanks, that makes sense.
From the earlier posted link:
Politicians love guarantees because they don’t require current expenditures. In fact, they often pretend a guarantee or a loan is free money—as if a guarantee something that probably won’t ever have to be paid off and all loans from the government will get paid back.
What, is Geithner learning a trick or two from AIG?
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 16:32:06 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Glen Beck tells everybody to get their 401K money out of the stock market.
Wall Street is raping us so why should we keep pouring our investment money in the market as well?
Michael Mon Mar 23 16:32:51 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"The problem is we have a Federal that was raised in a sub-universe where banking is considered productive work and not a necessary drag on productive activity."
Great comment Rob... I couldn't agree more..... trillions wasted on banks that could be invested in productive business.....
so sad
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 16:34:09 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
im reading, and struggling to understand the details of the public private investment program (ppip)
reading from the white paper it appears to me that the government is selling, kind sorta, some credit default swaps
how so...it appears the money the treasury puts up is leveraged by insurance (guarantees) by FDIC and the issuance of at least two tranches of debt...the senior debt being used to garner ratings and backstop (collateralize) the debt
on page 5 of the treasury fact sheet, "Asset managers will have the ability, if their investment fund structures meet certain guidelines, to subscribe for senior debt for the Public-Private Investment Fund from the Treasury Department in the amount of 50% of total equity capital of the fund. The Treasury Department will consider requests for senior debt for the fund in the amount of 100% of its total equity capital subject to further restrictions."
and there is more, where it appears the US Gov in various incantations first matches and then triple the governments contribution as compared with private equity
i must be very confused
and page 5 of the white paper doesnt help
"Treasury would agree to provide a one-for-one equity match for every dollar of private capital that the FM raises and provide fund-level leverage for the proposed PPIF. The FM would commence the sales process for the PPIF and raise $100 of private capital for the PPIF. Treasury would provide $100 of equity capital to be invested on side-by-side basis with private capital and would provide up to a $100 loan to the PPIF if the fund met certain guidelines. Treasury would also consider requests from the FM for an additional loan of up to $100 subject to further restrictions. As a result, the FM would have $300 (or, in some cases, up to $400) in total capital and would commence a purchase program for targeted securities."
looks like smoke and mirrors from my amateurish perspective
mock turtle Mon Mar 23 16:35:00 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"Glen Beck tells everybody to get their 401K money out of the stock market. "
Glenn Beck is a clueless moron and should be ignored....
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 16:36:26 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Wall Street is embezzling tax money out of one of your pockets, why give them money from the other.
Parent Post
Michael Mon Mar 23 16:44:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Even a broken clock it right twice a day...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 17:17:07 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
USG == The New AIG.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 16:36:35 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Rob Dawg,
In proportion to the economy/government/taxpayer base Hypo is still the larger cost
Be thankful for small mercies
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:38:20 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
The problem is we have a Federal that was raised in a sub-universe where banking is considered productive work and not a necessary drag on productive activity.
While we're at it, let's include patent "reforms" and copyright extensions as rent-seeking, non-productive activities.
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 16:37:27 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
If I was going to file a patent, and this info is current, I would need about $7k up front. Have 2 years to amend/complete that filing, looking at $35k total. System in that case is good for no one but lawyers
For copyright, that is a mess and a half. Don't expect any improvements as former RIAA lawyers make up senior ranks of the US AG. The existing system will choke itself to death
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 16:43:19 2009 CDT #
mr_clueless says:
Headline:NZ better placed than most countries, says IMF.
Call some place paradise...kiss it goodbye. (Eagles)
mr_clueless Mon Mar 23 16:38:18 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"While we're at it, let's include patent "reforms" and copyright extensions as rent-seeking, non-productive activities."
Knocking it out of the park here today... don't get me started on software patents....
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 16:38:54 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:
If the 85% FDIC loans are unsecured (ARE THEY?), and Private Equity is assured huge gains, perhaps they (PE) can be "convinced" to invest in GM and other distressed companies.
Don't you love our new planned economy?
In this "Matrix", do you want the green pill or the red?
Jackrabbit Mon Mar 23 16:39:16 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Here is my analysis of the Timmy plan, too long to cut and paste here. The main virtue of it is that it will help answer the question of "how much are those toxic assets really worth"? Is the lack of activity in the toxic asset market due to not enouugh buyers (the common assumption) or becasue of not enough sellers (probably more likely).
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/18441/Simplifying+the+Toxic+Asset+Plan
Dirk van Dijk Mon Mar 23 16:39:50 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"While we're at it, let's include patent "reforms" and copyright extensions as rent-seeking, non-productive activities."
Knocking it out of the park today.. .don't get me started on software patents
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 16:40:08 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Apparently the #2 and #3 over at the new justice department just filed a brief in support of the RIAA's right to punitive damages.
I am not too thrilled about that.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 17:14:25 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
For any concerned Californians out there, people do apparently still want your debt. Today was the first day of a retail order period for CA's $4 billion in new bonds, and they've reportedly already taken over $2 billion in orders from individual investors.
Bond Girl Mon Mar 23 16:40:37 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Free thought not cited by someone else's research being off limits and all.
RockyR,
You've offered a number of excellent insights and made well reasoned arguments. This time you were just off on the facts - as I understand them. That's all. I didn't intend to pound the table over it.
popeye Mon Mar 23 16:41:33 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
“"Wrong - it was wildly successful and did exactly what it was designed to do - avert revolution and buy time."
You're right. It bought time until the world war started. After which, the victors made economic hay rebuilding newly conquered lands.
World war isn't an option, this time. So, hopefully, this won't be a repeat of the GD.
Who said WW wasn't an option? That's the truly scary part...
Comrade Kristina Mon Mar 23 16:44:17 2009 CDT #
Citiprank says:
"Wall Street is embezzling tax money out of one of your pockets, why give them money from the other"
Oh I agree with that... but Glenn Beck is still a moron
I stoppped 401K contributions.. but I'm only 32.. so I'm letting what's in there ride it out.. if I lose it.. well whatever... there will be bigger problems than my 401K if the market doesnt come back in 30 years
Citiprank Mon Mar 23 16:47:16 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:
I'd guess the next two steps for the recovery plan (in 6-12 months) are:
1) Treasury agrees to allow sale of toxic assets and walking away of unsecured (ARE THEY?), nonrecourse FDIC if Private Equity will invest at least 50% of its gain in specified companies/industries (distressed manufacturing companies, clean energy, etc.)
2) Nationalized healthcare (the NEW New Deal)
Jackrabbit Mon Mar 23 16:48:16 2009 CDT #
treebeard says:
Roubini has gone AWOL.
treebeard Mon Mar 23 16:53:15 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
If I was going to file a patent, and this info is current, I would need about $7k up front. Have 2 years to amend/complete that filing, looking at $35k total. System in that case is good for no one but lawyers
--------------------------------------------------------------
.......why assign to "hiring guns"?......you can directy file to USPTO......for a copyright , you need fixation of your your protectable expression(s).......good luck EHP.........
Jay D. Mon Mar 23 16:53:17 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Jay D.
Discovery process, international filings, ability to stand up in court against a much larger company. Lots of patent filings get rejected in court, especially if you're a startup and they're a company with a dedicated legal department.
So if I've got something basic, say 5 patents, I double the prototype/incubation costs
It just places a significant hurdle on innovation.
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 17:00:20 2009 CDT #
Jackrabbit says:
Are we headed for World Domino, uh, World Damna, duh!... World Domination? I think snot, um... CRbot - no; oh... not.
Jackrabbit Mon Mar 23 16:54:38 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
EvilHenryPaulson says:Today, 2:38:20 PM PDT
Rob Dawg,
In proportion to the economy/government/taxpayer base Hypo is still the larger cost
Be thankful for small mercies
The small mercy is because it keeps the Europhiles quiet. Somehow my wallet is telling me I won't escape the Europop anymore than I've escaped the Ameripop.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 16:54:48 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Who said WW wasn't an option? That's the truly scary part..."
It's always possible, although not an option in the sense that anyone would choose it.
Pavel Mon Mar 23 16:56:42 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
Pavel says:
Today, 4:56:42 PM
“"Who said WW wasn't an option? That's the truly scary part..."
It's always possible, although not an option in the sense that anyone would choose it.
Yes, as with WWI I'm sure everyone involved will walk into it with absolute conviction that the other side has left them no choice.
Parent Post
Yalt Mon Mar 23 18:13:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Don't worry guys when the dow falls again.. "I have a plan"
-Sincerely your pal Mr. Geithner
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 16:57:12 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
LMAO, great snark piece I found about Cassano...Not your normal Kos fair either for you Kos haters.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/23/712141/-Do-you-know-me,-Joseph-Cassano
Comrade Kristina Mon Mar 23 16:58:13 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
if the market is a mechanism to screw the max # of people, this rally might still have legs: it would end only when most of the (meanwhile ubiquitous) shorts are squeezed out - which probably was the object of the exercise.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 16:58:34 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Wrong - it was wildly successful and did exactly what it was designed to do - avert revolution and buy time. Compare with what happened in St. Petersburg, Rome, Madrid & Berlin it was a smashing success. "
Yep. Dryfly is a very interesting thinker.
Pavel Mon Mar 23 16:59:21 2009 CDT #
Max says:
I found a use for all that vacant CRE:
http://www.sacbee.com/ourregion/story/1720692.html
Max Mon Mar 23 17:00:52 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Anybody shorting the market these last two weeks deserves it. Real shorts know the game is rigged. This was so obvious and overdue there is no sympathy.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 17:02:20 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"Without exception, every single person I know who can remember the mid-30s in the US talks about the WPA and says something like "thank God they got Dad a job or I don't know what we would have done."
Likewise for the CCC."
The WPA: even my mom's second husband, a 90-odd-year old Fox News junkie and arch conservative, grudgingly admitted that the WPA putting a few bucks in the pockets of workers who might have starved otherwise with their families, "was probably a good thing to do." Because he lived through the Depression -- in Oklahoma.
The CCC: it equipped a whole generation of young men with skills that would power the success of the next 30 years.
One interesting note: if you were too weak to work because of malnutrition or lack of access to medical care, the CCC would still take you. And they'd put you in some sort of recovery camp and get you into shape to be well enough to work. Only then did your term really begin.
Bob Dobbs Mon Mar 23 17:02:48 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"I think its better for the world to deleverage, break down and then rebuild itself into something new..."
If the world breaks down you'll get something new, all right, but I doubt you'll like it.
Pavel Mon Mar 23 17:03:18 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Just received spam purportedly coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, purportedly from someone named Tapas. I didn't know the Fed of St. Louis had headquarters in a Spanish restaurant.
Pavel Mon Mar 23 17:06:41 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
.....EHP....
.....PCT(Patent Cooperation Treaty) filing is rather complicated process but you can be helped by patent agent by 10% of lawyer fees.....
.....BTW , what is your invention?......just curious......
Jay D. Mon Mar 23 17:07:23 2009 CDT #
scone says:
If this plan dies, the Administration can claim they have exhausted all other alternatives and must go to the 'nuclear option'-- nationalization. There are going to be some showdowns at the O.K. Corral over in D.C.
scone Mon Mar 23 17:08:34 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
yes, the procedural hurdles for a getting, and defending, a patent are brutish, but my beef with the current patent system are substantive; simply too many "inventions" are given patents despite the statutory mandates (e.g. non-obviousness, utility, etc.)
Try this one on for size: a pharmaceutical can get a patent on a *class* of compound before the correct form is isolated, a patent for the racemic mix of the compound, and then patent extension for the isolated enantiomer.
I might be suffering from outrage fatigue today.
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 17:09:40 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Some Positive Comments on the Geithner Toxic Plan
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/some-positive-comments-on-geithner.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Mon Mar 23 17:11:06 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"I didn't know the Fed of St. Louis had headquarters in a Spanish restaurant"
Drug cartels and Federal Reserve have merged.
One-stop shopping.
Broward Horne Mon Mar 23 17:11:16 2009 CDT #
x0man says:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Treasury-take-over-Bear-Stearns/story.aspx?guid={855A56BF-E8A1-49B5-BD95-02F6A9A813B2}&dist=hplatest
x0man Mon Mar 23 17:12:11 2009 CDT #
ca says:
mp --
could you elaborate on your "tragedy of epic proportions."?
ca Mon Mar 23 17:28:11 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
dryfly says:
“dont know if this was posted..update
china looking to replace dollar
If they do they will have to replace the US consumer as customer of last resort. Those two are as coupled as yin & yang.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jesse the other day had a link to a Peter Schiff video where a completely different opinion was voiced. (I am not going to to tell you what Peter Schiff said about your attitude . ) Btw. a really nice and entertaining video. Here the link (which Jesse's Cafe had) :
http://blog.mises.org/archives/009620.asp
P.S. Peter Schiff seems to me much more plausible than you are.
Werner Mon Mar 23 18:40:18 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
cd says:
“dont know if this was posted..update
china looking to replace dollar
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Belive me, not only China !
The only ones who think that the currency of a country which lead it's financial system into desaster and is now, via monetisation, ruining it's currency should be the world's reserve currency are (you guessed it) born and breed dopes.
My prediction : America soon will be kicked out of the G20 ! Hihi.
Werner Mon Mar 23 18:51:06 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"Got SKF?"
sweet , however i would check the FAZ volume first :) O:-)
Comrade De Chaos Mon Mar 23 19:08:52 2009 CDT #
tbizzle says:
here's to a mutant three eared mortgage pig. long live the pig.
tbizzle Mon Mar 23 19:12:19 2009 CDT #
J. Chambers says:
Wall Street and the Economy
Suppose Timothy Geithner announced a new program that would tax every family $10,000 dollars and give the money to Wall Street banks and hedge funds. (Any resemblance between this hypothetical program and real world programs is purely coincidental.)
We would expect the stock of Wall Street banks and other financial sector firms to rally based on the anticipation of higher profits. Is this good for the economy? It's not in any obvious way. After all, we can always tax people more to raise profits for Wall Street, but that doesn't help the economy.
Reporters should remember this when assessing Wall Street's response to the plan proposed by Geithner for buying bad assets from banks. The larger the subsidy, the better the news for Wall Street. It's not clear that most of the public should be happy about seeing more of their tax dollars going to Wall Street.
--Dean Baker
J. Chambers Mon Mar 23 21:08:01 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
Now the boys on the "street" can go back to Bull Shite accounting.....it's to the MOON!-CROOKS
Money Man Mon Mar 23 22:49:12 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
The 4 Bears graph is still very ominous. The panic in 1929 came two months into the decline while the panic in 2007 came one year into the decline. But in both cases we are/were at exactly the same level in the same period of time. And it ain't over yet, just as it wasn't in 1930/31
Hal Tue Mar 24 01:40:48 2009 CDT #
END