Comments for "Moody's Warns of Worst Corporate Default Rate since WWII"
Anonymous says:
its not default if theyre not at fault
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 17:18:55 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3198915918822756949
CRbot Wed Apr 1 17:20:21 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"But seriously, more than half of Oregon is Federal land, and that causes problems for us trying to develop a modern economy."
How does that work? What is the correlation?
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 17:20:22 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
any CDS written on this stuff?
it's all good
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Apr 1 17:21:03 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
So what was the corporate default rate in World War II?
Nemo Wed Apr 1 17:21:37 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
pretty high in germany
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Apr 1 17:22:35 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"any CDS written on this stuff?
it's all good"
Don't worry I hear they all bought CDS through AIG. No problemo.
poic.v20 Wed Apr 1 17:22:57 2009 CDT #
imofftoseethewizard says:
OT. Here's a local blog post on stalled projects in one neighborhood in Seattle. These properties are within a mile of each other.
http://www.centraldistrictnews.com/2009/04/01/national-economy-stalling-local-construction-projects
imofftoseethewizard Wed Apr 1 17:23:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Why not sell some of the public lands?" I think I might take issue with selling national treasure to give the proceeds to the banks.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 17:23:25 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
We're all counterparties now!
Comrade Kristina Wed Apr 1 17:24:00 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"The downgrades included one of the largest on record, $326 billion of bonds and preferred shares of General Electric Co (GE.N) and its units."
Didn't Dryfly call GE a giant Ponzi scheme -- adding more and more debt to "buy" more and more revenue?
Bob Dobbs Wed Apr 1 17:24:32 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Darn CR I just posted this on the last comments thread...I will repost 'cause Ive been seeing this pattern for about a month now - esp, sep. in the last two weeks..
Repost:
Speaking of charge offs, how 'bout downgrades:
- Moody's Investors Service said Wednesday it downgraded Macy's Inc. because of deteriorating credit and retail challenges. Moody's cut Macy's senior unsecured note rating to Ba2 from Baa3, and assigned a corporate family rating of Ba2.
- Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut its ratings on Dow Chemical Co to the lowest investment grade and warned it may cut the company into junk territory, citing concerns over debt taken on to fund its acquisition of Rohm and Haas
- Standard & Poor's knocked Ireland's triple-A sovereign credit rating down by one notch amid concerns about the country's widening budget deficit and the possible need for more steps to stabilize its banking system
- Corporate America's credit quality collapsed in the first quarter, with Moody's Investors Service downgrading an estimated $1.76 trillion of debt, a record high, the rating agency said on Wednesday.
- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut its credit ratings on Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) into highly speculative territory Wednesday, saying it expects the home builder to continue posting losses through 2010.
-Moody's late on Monday cut Hartford's senior debt ratings two steps to Baa3, the lowest investment grade, and gave the company a negative outlook, indicating an additional downgrade may be more likely over the next 12 to 18 months.
-Moody's cut J.C. Penney's senior unsecured debt one notch to Ba1, one step below investment grade, from Baa3. A downgrade into junk territory can significantly increase a company's borrowing costs.
- Moody's Investors Service and Standard and Poor's Ratings Services both lowered credit ratings on Nuveen Investments Inc., with Moody's placing its corporate family rating into highly speculative territory amid equity market declines and elevated net asset outflows.
- Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded the credit ratings of Emaar Properties and another Dubai government-linked company and assigned them both a negative outlook, due to what it said was a deterioration in the emirate’s economy and property sector.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 17:24:33 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
goldman sachs is gonna make a lot of money off this, right?
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Apr 1 17:24:48 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Time to get to work! So when do the make-work shovel-ready Saddam-Hussein-Like Statue building projects start ?
Staues of Che Geuvara Obama across the glorious people's republic, for Amerikans to workship!
bearly Wed Apr 1 17:25:38 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"Hopefully the bank stress tests have all these defaults factored in"
C's rate going forward was 4.8%. They might like to revise it.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 17:26:17 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
‘Tarp cop’ launches probes into bail-out fraud
Neil Barofsky – described at a Senate finance committee hearing as the “Tarp cop” – estimated the US had spent or lent almost $3,000bn of taxpayers’ money to aid banks and other companies, which would “inevitably attract those seeking to profit criminally”.
<h3 class="section">
<h4></h4>
He said his investigators were already working with law enforcement officials on potential cases. “We actually have probably more than a dozen ongoing criminal investigations based on fraud related to the Tarp programme,” he said. A spokeswoman for Mr Barofsky said the office could not provide more detail as the probes were active.</h3>
Mr Barofsky also said he was to prepare an audit of the decision to repay in full counterparties of AIG, the insurance group bailed out with $173bn of government aid.
The Government Accountability Office on Tuesday recommended the Treasury should demand “concessions” from AIG’s counterparties and executives “including seeking to renegotiate existing contracts”.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/275f67ba-1e31-11de-830b-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
About damn time. Get those bastards!
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 17:27:48 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
CR sorry 'bout that Anon @ Today, 3:24:33 PM was me...seems like my id gets killed by Kit
Barley Wed Apr 1 17:27:54 2009 CDT #
SRSly says:
So, time to hop back into SRS?
SRSly Wed Apr 1 17:28:15 2009 CDT #
buff_butler says:
its amazing that these credit rating agencies want to do there job now :P
I wonder if there will be an overshoot of "to agressive" credit downgrades? If such a thing is possible...
buff_butler Wed Apr 1 17:28:56 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
I dare them to.. :-D
_____________
The Treasury Department is not ruling out (though, not endorsing either) a novel proposal floated in small circles of tech/finance experts: to post Wall Street's toxic assets online, so any American with an Internet connection has the chance to assess their value.
"Treasury hasn't endorsed or rejected the idea," said an official at the Department.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/01/bank-rescue-20-treasury-c_n_181504.html
Lucifer Wed Apr 1 17:29:24 2009 CDT #
John M says:
Conficker meet TARP -- Treasury to Infect Computers Worldwide with Zombie Assets
It's been a long April 1st :-D
Parent Post
John M Wed Apr 1 20:04:32 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Good thing CRE won't experience the same downturn we see in RRE.
Br\'er Dawg Wed Apr 1 17:29:25 2009 CDT #
mark says:
With news like that, we are so going to blow through Dow 8000 tomorrow.
mark Wed Apr 1 17:30:16 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
If anybody wants to play this try JNK/NYSE.
Barley Wed Apr 1 17:31:33 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
From the previous thread - fortunately Fannie and Freddie do not have to go through the stress testing nuisance
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Receive $46 Billion From Treasury
2009-04-01 21:55:04.807 GMT
By Dawn Kopecki
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury injected
$46 billion in emergency funds into government-controlled mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The Treasury payout yesterday included a $15.2 billion investment in Fannie’s preferred stock and a $30.8 billion purchase of Freddie’s preferred shares, the companies said in separate filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission today. The companies must pay a minimum dividend of 10 percent.
MrM Wed Apr 1 17:31:45 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
1
adornosghost Wed Apr 1 17:32:03 2009 CDT #
Dope Alert says:
But seriously, more than half of Oregon is Federal land, and that causes problems for us trying to develop a modern economy."
I suppose they want to clear cut from Astoria to Klamath Falls
Dope Alert Wed Apr 1 17:32:04 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
maybe somebody should bundle all this substandard corporate debt and then sell off the AAA tranches
oh, yeah
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Apr 1 17:32:46 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
"has the chance to assess their value"
Lucifer
Sounds like a good idea. But why not let the public have a chance to bid for it - dutch auction anybody?
Barley Wed Apr 1 17:33:38 2009 CDT #
buff_butler says:
“With news like that, we are so going to blow through Dow 8000 tomorrow."
Ah yes the good ol rally on terrible news... I wish that was taught in class :P
buff_butler Wed Apr 1 17:35:24 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
I knida wonder what the pension plans and PIMCO will do. In some, they cant hold anything below AA. So, me suspects some might come to market.
Barley Wed Apr 1 17:35:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
we need as % of GDP to make real sense of this.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 17:37:26 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Well I'm happy to read that the AIG thing I couldn't understand a few days ago is getting investigated by somebody, hopefully smarter than I am.
Lawyerliz Wed Apr 1 17:37:51 2009 CDT #
scone says:
"Why not sell some of the public lands?" I think I might take issue with selling national treasure to give the proceeds to the banks. - Blackhalo
I'm talking about giving it to the states, not the banks. And as long as it is in Federal hands, it is in danger of being sold and the cash given to the banks, anyway.
In any case, have you seen some of this 'treasure?' Seriously, it't not that great. I'm not talking about selling the national parks, but there's tens of millions of acres of land that's not much good for anything but cheap pasture, which the rachers get subsidized by taxpayers. Sell that stuff, let the states pick up some taxes, and stop asking the eastern states to subsidize the west.
scone Wed Apr 1 17:37:55 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"About damn time. Get those bastards!"
It would seem to me that step one of fixing what is broken, would be to get the bad actors out of the picture, and restore some level of trust. I still fail to see how this is a liquidity problem.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 17:39:43 2009 CDT #
SRSly says:
Scone: You're right a lot of our public land is "not that great" and wouldn't fetch much of a price either. The BLM administers 264m acres, more than any other agency. Assuming we sold all of this off and could average $2,500/acre, we'd only have $660 billion. We'd blow through that like nothing. How about some fiscal responsibility before we liquidate all our assets?
SRSly Wed Apr 1 17:44:51 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Please post a list of downgrades in municipal finance in Q1 2009 since house property tax, sales tax, business and income tax fund local government and most,if not all, of the major metro areas have declines in real estate and economic activity. This would make a nice USA wide map of county by county where downgrades happen.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 17:44:53 2009 CDT #
scone says:
"But seriously, more than half of Oregon is Federal land, and that causes problems for us trying to develop a modern economy."
How does that work? What is the correlation?
.
Sorry, I missed this one. Go back 2 threads and look at the map on my post near the bottom. That shows the problem. Most of the West is federal land. This land does not pay state property tax. So a state like Oregon has it's property tax base artifically constrained. This affects everything, but especially stuff like schools. In the past, the Feds paid a fee 'in lieu of' property tax, but it didn't make up the difference. They also paid a fee in lieu of taxes on timber lands (long story). These fees are being drastically cut back, because the rest of the Union is not happy about it. Also, the existence of these Federal fees has de-incentivized (if that's the word) the state from developing an economy that would generate a modern tax structure to fund the state's needs. For example, in my county, the Federal fees have been cut back, so the schools are cutting back, and the potholes are not getting filled.
Contrast this with a state like New Hampshire, where there is little Federal land, and very little unincorporated area. This means most of the local property taxes are generated and spent inside individual townships, and the money is spent more efficiently. So the schools and roads are better. It also forces the state to live more within it's means, because it does not become quite as dependent on Fed money.
That's not a really great explanation (no time to edit) but it gives the general idea. HTH.
scone Wed Apr 1 17:46:49 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
So what caused Moody's to down grade now vs a year ago.
Or, a year from now?
Threats of prosecution?
Lawyerliz Wed Apr 1 17:47:41 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
So what caused Moody's to down grade now vs a year ago.
elmo gave them a talking to
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Apr 1 17:51:13 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Re Citi CDS levels. I just had a look. Damn, those really have spiked. You wonder how the stock has any support at all. Someone is going to be wrong.
ghostfacedinvestah Wed Apr 1 17:54:10 2009 CDT #
JS-Kit says:
I suck!
JS-Kit Wed Apr 1 17:55:59 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
"Since at least World War II" should be taken to mean "since the great depression, except we weren't tracking it before the end of World War II so we can't say that"
Wisdom Speaker Wed Apr 1 17:57:37 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Yes, all generalizations suck, including this one.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 18:01:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
CR, (or anyone else)
How many of these downgrades translate into credit default events for CDS, etc to kick in.
Any idea the $$$ in counter-party loss is involved with the downgrades?
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 18:01:26 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"eastern states to subsidize the west." I think the eastern states subsidise the West, because the west has proportionally more electoral votes than people. I doubt federal land ownership comes in to that picture.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 18:01:53 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Related to, but not the real cause. The real cause is that WY has 2 senators just like CA or NY. 15% of the population elects 50% or the Senate
Parent Post
Dirk van Dijk Wed Apr 1 18:32:51 2009 CDT #
fallonPDX says:
oh that was mean with the credit event question.
fallonPDX Wed Apr 1 18:02:13 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
It would be interesting to know the total dollar value of CRE loans versus other loans. While the annual investment rate is lower, it's possible (?) that the investment has a longer lifetime (i.e. if the average skyscraper lives longer than the average house) and thus the total capital base might be disproportionately larger or smaller. The next effect to consider would be the overall debt burden on that capital base. We know that about 1/3 of homes are owned outright, which reduces the overall debt burden on RRE. But if nearly every office or other commercial building is mortgaged to the hilt, the impact of defaults on prices could again be disproportionately larger or smaller. Finally, jobs are tied to CRE whereas RRE is mainly homeowner-maintained, so the employment impact of the CRE bust might again be disproportionate.
In a worst-case scenario where all of these effects play the wrong way, the CRE bust could be much more toxic to the economy than one would normally assume from the relative size of the investment numbers.
Wisdom Speaker Wed Apr 1 18:03:03 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Any idea the $$$ in counter-party loss is involved with the downgrades?" I guess we'll find out when AIG gets more money from Timmy.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 18:03:42 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The whole point is to develop a 'modern economy' that's truly diversified, and that's not going to happen as long as the Fed owns more than half of Oregon."
I can not quite grasp this reasoning. What does federal ownership of 1/2 of Oreegon have to do with development of a 'modern economy?' What is the negative impact? It would seem to me that Oregon business being able to use federal land for timber and ranching, without haveing to police or provide services, would be a net benifit.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 18:09:14 2009 CDT #
scone says:
I suppose they want to clear cut from Astoria to Klamath Falls - Dope Alert
What part of 'property taxes' is so difficult to understand? And who the heck is going to clear cut, when there's no demand for timber? The whole point is to develop a 'modern economy' that's truly diversified, and that's not going to happen as long as the Fed owns more than half of Oregon.
scone Wed Apr 1 18:06:41 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
-U.S. audit watchdog studies mark-to-market changes
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0151071720090401
Auditor KPMG hit with billion-dollar U.S. lawsuit
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0144888320090401
How frigging ironic is that?
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 18:09:23 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Most of the West is federal land."
Sounds like DC, except add: international extraterritorial.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 18:09:46 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Blackhalo,
Because the Federal government has no incentive to make the best possible use of the land
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:13:32 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
"It's just an empty cage if you kill the bird". -Tori Amos
hong konger Wed Apr 1 18:14:30 2009 CDT #
scone says:
I think the eastern states subsidise the West, because the west has proportionally more electoral votes than people. I doubt federal land ownership comes in to that picture. - Blackhalo
.
O.K., last try and then I'll quit. More than 50% of my state pays no local property taxes at all. In lieu of those monies, the Federal government takes money and gives it to Oregon. These monies add up to tens of millions of dollars. These monies come from the other states, and since they are ultimately coming from corporations and individual taxpayers, it comes disproportionately from populous, developed, economically diversified states. In other words, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, etc. are paying money to support schools and roads in Oregon. The eastern states are starting to notice this problem, and they have begun to kick-- hard. So the payments have been cut way back, and they may be totally eliminated in the near future. This leaves Oregon with a big budget hole that can't be filled, because they've been on the Federal tit so long they think it's a natural right and an entitlement. So the don't do anything to fix the problem and the roads don't get paved.
scone Wed Apr 1 18:16:36 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"So what caused Moody's to downgrade now?"
----
April Fool's day.
If anyone takes it seriously they can claim it was a joke.
I'm surprised we didn't see another $1.5 trillion bailout bill passed today.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 18:18:33 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Scone,
I suspect nobody wants to play with you on the subject. Every north american region has an axe to grind. PNW complaining it is on the short end of the stick is just not anything most are willing to entertain.
Br\'er Dawg Wed Apr 1 18:20:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Weee!
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 18:21:10 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
There is a misperception that a credit rating reflects on the borrower's credit worthiness
It merely tracks time before default (my interpretation of NY Fed paper on the value of credit ratings)
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:21:42 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Because the Federal government has no incentive to make the best possible use of the land"
It's federal, meaning national. A decision about use should belong to the people as a whole, not the people within a few dozen or hundred miles.
I think the whole country has been transfixed by the tragedy of the commons. I don't care what policies are adopted - if we are not to be the united citizens of a democratic republic, but instead a quarrelsome, clashing mob, nothing will work. I see it here all the time: I'm all right Jack, or I will be when I take what you've got, every man for himself. It's the way, a dying society expresses itself. Is that what we are?
Pavel Wed Apr 1 18:21:47 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Scone,
where are going with this? Why pave roads to nowhere? Oregon has roads..What are they going to do with this federal land? build toll roads thru forests...I guess we could say the same for WY, CO, ID, WA, MT, NM, UT, NV, AZ, CA
cd Wed Apr 1 18:25:35 2009 CDT #
RuffRednSore says:
But seriously, more than half of Oregon is Federal land, and that causes problems for us trying to develop a modern economy."
Oklahoma doesn't have much Federal Land, but it doesn't have a modern economy either. Colorado has more Federal land than Oregon, but I'd say that state's economy is fairly modern.
I get your message though. Why not let developers, miners, loggers, etc., just have access to all public lands now? After all, it will greatly benefit a small number of wealthy people. That's the Republican way of doing business.
RuffRednSore Wed Apr 1 18:26:22 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel
You're trying to hijack my original post. So an analogy, Hawaii does not have jurisdiction on most of the water between it and the continental USA. Hawaii is not responsible for funding the coast guard in that region. Oregon is like Hawaii, but Oregon has to pay for services covering the areas it cannot raise revenue from.
I'm not from the state, but I do enjoy arguing occasionally
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:26:35 2009 CDT #
Ministry of Truth says:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Receive $46 Billion From Treasury
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1Va5SmQCD1o&refer=home
The Treasury payout yesterday included a $15.2 billion investment in Fannie’s preferred stock and a $30.8 billion purchase of Freddie’s preferred shares, the companies said in separate filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission today. The companies must pay a minimum dividend of 10 percent.
Ministry of Truth Wed Apr 1 18:27:05 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
In rooms which normally don't enjoy much human presence, local and state officials are determining whether it is feasible to super tax "vultured" properties from "out of town folks".
It's happening...Right.Now.
2 years ago, I remember CR mentioning that some of his friends were buying property at 15-30c/$. I can't remember what my comment was, but I remember thinking that the carry was gonna be a disaster once the locals got pinched and needed money.
Anyway, the local vultures/politicos are "a schemin" now.
Can't wait to see what they come up with.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 18:27:41 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
O/T :
...GM, Ford Post U.S. Sales Declines Less Than Estimates... ((http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8n4mtEpLuMU&refer=home))
----------------------------
"better than expected ; decline less than expected , etc. ".
These .uckers just can not tell the truth !
American propaganda is just despicable and repugnant !!
It's american culture, I know . But I am starting to ask myselfs what kind of people are these who need these kind lies (and have it as their culture) ? Yuck!
Werner Wed Apr 1 18:30:54 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Jas is that you?
Parent Post
nades Wed Apr 1 18:35:52 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
btw, Pavel with regards to the tragedy of the commons.
It is once the rights to land were allocated to those who had a vested interest in maintaining them that brought about sustainable forestry in Japan, or Germany later in another independent development. Same with Iceland and its sheep grazing.
To others asking what would they do with the land? It's an opportunity cost to do absolutely nothing. If the State had control they could arrange all manner of incentives from which they would be paid back through taxation or ownership (eco-tourism, hunting, fishing, farmed forest which is much more than a tree farm see http://www.vancouversun.com/Short+rotation+fibre+plantations+Farming+trees/1413994/story.html )
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:35:39 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Oregon is like Hawaii, but Oregon has to pay for services covering the areas it cannot raise revenue from. "
Oregon is a constituent part of a federal republic, not an independent country. That's the deal. And Oregon will never be an independent country unless the world falls apart, in which case its existence as an independent country is likely to be a brief one.
The United State of America is an independent country. It has the right and privilege to raise revenues wherever in the country it sees fit to raise them, subject to law In return, its obligation is to provide for the defense of the country and the well-being of its citizens, subject to the limitations set forth in the Constitution. That's the deal.
Do you propose another form of government?
Pavel Wed Apr 1 18:36:04 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel
You are acting insane. I compared Hawaii to Oregon -- they are both states or as you say "a constituent part of a federal republic, not an independent country"
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:42:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The Gilded Age
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 18:36:24 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
'State' States
Pavel Wed Apr 1 18:37:37 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"It's american culture, I know . But I am starting to ask myselfs what kind of people are these who need these kind lies (and have it as their culture) ? Yuck!"
Werner, my wife (Chinese) spent 2 years in West Germany while growing up. As long as you're all into constantly slamming American culture left and right on this board is it alright for me to slam German racist behaviour based on my wife's experiences?
I don't support the American culture you bring up, but your holier than though German attitude gets a bit tiresome given the particular foibles of German culture. Every culture has a few things to be embarassed of.
Notwithstanding the many failures of American culture as an Asian my wife takes North America any day of the week over living in Europe.
poic.v20 Wed Apr 1 18:39:58 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
EHP-
With deference, you're misconstruing the perception of the Fed's definition with that of the practical application (re: credit grades) on the individual master agreements and/or controlling addenda under the bylaws.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 18:40:00 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Oregon has to pay for services covering the areas it cannot raise revenue from" Now that would make sense to me, if true. But there are states with far higher rates of federal lands, that tax their populace more per capita to provide services. Oregon is #41 on per capita tax, while Nevada is #19, and it looks like Nevada has far more federal land. So my inclination would be for Oregon to pay for their own infrastructure. http://www.census.gov/g
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 18:40:38 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
http://www.census.gov/govs/statetax/05staxrank.html
Fixed link.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 18:50:25 2009 CDT #
Paradigm Lost says:
Scone: That forested land might become very valuable in a future cap and trade, carbon sink scenario. Check this out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sink
Paradigm Lost Wed Apr 1 18:40:57 2009 CDT #
scone says:
I get your message though. Why not let developers, miners, loggers, etc., just have access to all public lands now? After all, it will greatly benefit a small number of wealthy people. That's the Republican way of doing business.
,
No, that's not my message, and I'm not a Republican. I'm living in a county that's become largely dependent on Federal payments for survival, and those payments are about to be discontinued. People like you just will not face that reality, and because of that, Oregon stays poor. Oregon has to pay its own way, somehow. The other states do that, and that's what they expect of us. They are no longer willing to foot the bill for what they perceive to be western freeloading.
scone Wed Apr 1 18:41:20 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
I should add, that there is some new research out of Germany that enables the use of what is normally wood waste from a pulp mill, to be used for making plastics
and the hypothetical revenue generators do not all have to have ties to nature. Could be a rail line, could be starting a new town (very expensive to build them where there are mountains), who knows. It's like asking someone to predict cell phones in 1800. What makes the land beneath London, Paris, Tokyo, LA, etc so inherently valuable? The dominant answers are a million decisions back that led to the positive feedback loop of a localized economy
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:41:32 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"It's the way, a dying society expresses itself. Is that what we are?"
----
You felt the need to ask?
The Feds just cranked out $12.8 trillion in borrowing and just about nobody anywhere realizes it. Public properties are being sold off to foreign powers and Obama is jaunting through Europe with 500+ escorts.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 18:42:54 2009 CDT #
Ed S. says:
Scone,
Understand your point but NH is an unusual "one-off" as far as taxes are concerned. I owned property there (undeveloped) and the property taxes are BRUTAL. But no income tax.
What NH has cleverly done (or maybe just by default) is set RE taxes high -- but a substantial amount of the RE is seasonal. It's a brilliant idea: RE tax pays for schools and public services. Which seasonal owners use very little or not at all. So residents get services at a reduced rate.
Unfortunately, NH is also a bedroom community / tourist economy -- and is losing population. Not sure if that's the model you want
Ed S. Wed Apr 1 18:44:19 2009 CDT #
cd says:
poic,
Werner's just pissed because he's allergic to hop's and in germany that's like having leprosy.
Plus nobody's buying their cars right now...
cd Wed Apr 1 18:48:07 2009 CDT #
nades says:
hes just pissed because he's allergic to hop's and in germany that's like having leprosy. ~cd
ROTFLOL! ! !
Parent Post
nades Wed Apr 1 18:54:59 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Werner's just pissed because he's allergic to hop's and in germany that's like having leprosy."
The Germans make some very fine wines, although drinking that might not be so trendy during Octoberfest.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:05:08 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I suppose they want to clear cut from Astoria to Klamath Falls''
And sell the lumber to whom? dead homebuilders? Newsprint companies?
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 18:48:15 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"It is once the rights to land were allocated to those who had a vested interest in maintaining them that brought about sustainable forestry in Japan, or Germany later in another independent development. Same with Iceland and its sheep grazing. "
This is all so vague, almost legendary. Should we have an emperor, like Japan, and its interlocking system of monopolies? Should we have welfare capitalism German style?
This is not Japan. This is not Germany.
As for Iceland, until she discovered fishing as a source of income her life-style was one of grinding poverty, accompanied by loss of national independence. Independent People, a novel by Halldor Laxness, is a good introduction to the old Iceland.
Can you guarantee that handing over the national patrimony to individuals would result in profit for all, and not pillage?
I think what it boils down to is (tragedy of the commons): Someone is going to exploit these things until they are exhausted, why not me?
Pavel Wed Apr 1 18:48:26 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Black Halo,
Touché, I withdraw from the debate
hong konger,
I guess I like to intentionally perceive things abnormally. The paper I mention was backwards looking, took defaults and then noted their credit rating X days before default. Beautifully smooth curves. The takeaway for me was not to consider ratings as predictive, as they are in significant measure reactive. I mean if you see things are going downhill, would you not downgrade them all the way to default -- if for no other reason to later say "of course they defaulted, they had a C rating".
The curve of Rating vs Days before default is much more instructive to me, than the initial rating of the debt upon issuance.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:49:54 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel says:
This is all so vague, almost legendary. Should we have an emperor, like Japan, and its interlocking system of monopolies? Should we have welfare capitalism German style?
If you want to argue against yourself by constructing flimsy arguments you can later tear down, go ahead. In the mean time by trying to tangentially attack me by association, you are embarrassing yourself by proudly declaring you have no clue about the examples I cite.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 18:54:41 2009 CDT #
scone says:
I can not quite grasp this reasoning. What does federal ownership of 1/2 of Oreegon have to do with development of a 'modern economy?' What is the negative impact? It would seem to me that Oregon business being able to use federal land for timber and ranching, without haveing to police or provide services, would be a net benifit.
.
The basic idea is that 'resource extraction' industries, and primary commodity production industries, are essentially benefiting from the arrangement, providing some income, and removing incentives for people to develop new industries and jobs. For example, in my county many of the people still believe that 'logging will make a comeback.' So in the 20 years since the last timber crash in the 1980's, we have been nursing along a dying industry that has all sorts of problems, e.g. pollution. In addition, because the logging industry dominated the scene, there was no incentive for people to get much education, so we have lots of dropouts, etc. And because logging has been a boom and bust industry, the ordinary working man is even worse off than the average, in terms of being able to save anythng for hard times. (This applies to ranching as well.) I'm not saying that logging or raising cattle is evil in itself, but dependence on these industries crowds out other investment, to the detriment of the environment and the people.
Think of it this way. Oregon is Appalachia, but instead of mines, we have trees. Plus a federal dole. It all adds up to rural poverty and a degraded environment-- the two things go hand in hand.
scone Wed Apr 1 18:55:27 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"It all adds up to rural poverty and a degraded environment-- the two things go hand in hand."
I was under the impression that Oregon had above average income, so I would think that rural poverty would be at the hands of the state govenment and not jobs or education.
Appelatia though, yeah those guys are in bad shape.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_of_the_United_States_by_income.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:01:42 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"You are acting insane. I compared Hawaii to Oregon -- they are both states or as you say "a constituent part of a federal republic, not an independent country""
Could be, but I think we're talking past each other. Hawaii, btw, has no jurisdiction over the international waters between itself and the West Coast, but neither does the US. They're international.
Oregon has no jurisdiction over federal lands situated within its boundaries. Decisions concerning the dispostion of those lands are to be made federally, under law.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 18:56:29 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
EHP-
I understand. However, it occurred to me that we'll be playing around the "letter of the law" for the next few years.
This generally happens when distressed assets are in play. However, when the entire system is on life support, I'm looking at the fine print particularly intensely.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 18:57:16 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
hong konger says:
This generally happens when distressed assets are in play. However, when the entire system is on life support, I'm looking at the fine print particularly intensely.
Care to elaborate? I sense you have a story to tell me
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:09:33 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
link to the wood plastic @ http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,3938912,00.html?maca=en-tagesschau_englisch-335-rdf-mp
great thing. takes lignin which would normally just be burned as a byproduct of papermaking, and turns it into plastic. brilliant
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:00:16 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/map-owns_the_west.jpg
Last time I checked, Oregon's property tax was almost double that of most other states. AReferencing scone, pparently that is offset by some sort of deduction, Idaho has the same thing, the first $50K or whatnot of value is exempt.
the fact is that Oregon pays lower salaries and charges more tax.
That's part of the reason I prefer Seattle.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 19:01:19 2009 CDT #
Fried says:
Director Peter Orszag, of Office of Management and Budget, is on Jon Stewart tonight...11pm EST.
Fried Wed Apr 1 19:02:16 2009 CDT #
scone says:
So my inclination would be for Oregon to pay for their own infrastructure.- Blackhalo
That's what I'm trying to say. Oregon should pay its own way, but the local mentality has become distorted because of the timber payments and the PILT (payments in lieu of taxes). But when you try to talk to Oregonians about this, they get livid, because they can't seem to think of any way to raise money other than clear cutting forests. That's the grip that the resource extraction industries, such as logging, have had on the place-- people can't conceptualize a new Oregon economy.
scone Wed Apr 1 19:02:21 2009 CDT #
anotherajh says:
scone, if you look at the location of federal lands in the west, most of it is not terribly hospitable: desert, severe mountains, or severe weather (e.g. Nevada, eastern Cal, Alaska). If the federal gov. had much land valuable for development, I think it's a safe bet it's already been sold. I'm not arguing with the spirit of your argument, just pointing out that it's unlikely much cash would be raised, and availability of the land for public uses would be forever lost.
Parent Post
anotherajh Wed Apr 1 19:56:19 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
Adverb on adverb. Sorry.
"...particularly close."
hong konger Wed Apr 1 19:02:25 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"If you want to argue against yourself by constructing flimsy arguments you can later tear down, go ahead. In the mean time by trying to tangentially attack me by association,"
Furthest thing from my mind is to attack you. Really. Let's just say I have no idea what you're trying to say, though no doubt it would be worth understanding.
I think scone is making mroe sense here than any of us.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 19:03:01 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel
Of course the disagreement was in perception, and not in fact.
I'm a tree hugger, I loathe the tragedy of the commons, but privatization or leasing a public good is not always a bad thing. Privatization in the right context can lead to optimal results, which is not to say anything like modern experience with privatization would result in an optimal outcome.
That's why I cited managed forests of Japan and Germany which debuted hundreds of years ago. Not because I would like to see the state mowed down so Oregonians do not have to pay income tax for 15 years before the money runs out.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:06:06 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Germany which debuted hundreds of years ago."
Good goly, Germany has some beatiful forests that are a sheer joy to walk or even drive through. Plus no noticable billboards or other clutter on the roadside. How do they do that?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:09:43 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
no way germany is hundreds of years old...maybe 150-175, tops.
Parent Post
the man from nantucket Wed Apr 1 19:45:42 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"This is not Japan. This is not Germany"
----
True.
This is now a jurisdiction of China.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 19:06:46 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"people can't conceptualize a new Oregon economy"
---
Hardly a Federal issue.
That's an issue of the people that live there.
I think you're confusing cause-n-effect. Oregon's economy is driven by environmentalist leanings, not vice versa.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 19:09:14 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
Pavel-
You carry yourself with aplomb. I'm sorry you got hounded for your beliefs the other night.
I thought to defend you, but, I reckoned it would be insulting.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 19:09:52 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Pavel
Of course the disagreement was in perception, and not in fact.
I'm a tree hugger, I loathe the tragedy of the commons, but privatization or leasing a public good is not always a bad thing. Privatization in the right context can lead to optimal results, which is not to say anything like modern experience with privatization would result in an optimal outcome. "
Cod fishing off the east coast was a trap. Oil is a trap. And scone is setting forth the reasons why logging is a trap. Maybe these extractive industries were suitable for their time, but now we have to find different ways of structuring economies.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 19:11:36 2009 CDT #
Allen C says:
OT
Interesting how China imports from Japan dropped by over 60% YoY in January. Quite a cutback.
Allen C Wed Apr 1 19:11:38 2009 CDT #
scone says:
"It all adds up to rural poverty and a degraded environment-- the two things go hand in hand."
I was under the impression that Oregon had above average income, so I would think that rural poverty would be at the hands of the state govenment and not jobs or education.
.
Income would be adequate if costs of living matched, but they don't. Housing is super expensive here compared to incomes-- that's another long story. Also, Portland has 1/3 of the population, and dominates everything politically. The rural counties have little clout, and get little attention. The poverty programs that do exist don't even begin to address the issues.
Also, median income is kind of misleading, it gets skewed by a few programmers at Intel, or shoe designers at Nike. And since loggers, fishermen, ranch hands, saw mill workers, etc. are out of work often, they spend whatever they make just surviving until the next bit of work. So they gradually fall behind. And if they get disabled, they have no education or training to go into another line of work. Not that there is another line of work. So, yeah, it's like Appalachia.
scone Wed Apr 1 19:13:00 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Also, median income is kind of misleading, it gets skewed by a few programmers at Intel, or shoe designers at Nike."
I gotta go with State government incompetence for 600, alex.
If the state is not taxing those who benifit the most from the state to give a helping hand to the least among us... well then.
Not that I have room to talk as Texas has loads of rural and urban poor.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:27:50 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
What I'm seeing in the Oregon debate is that as the credit crunch grinds on, folks starved for cash and drowning in debt are going to start taking a much closer look at the systems they live under, asking some hard questions, and pushing hard to modify the status quo.
It's the social-architecture equivalent of the bezzle problem. There's always fraud going on that hasn't been exposed. During a credit boom, times are easy, everyone's making money, and no one has much incentive tp look hard for the bezzle - the fraud that's there but not yet exposed. So the bezzle grows. Then when the credit winter comes, the fraudulent Ponzi schemes blow up, you get Madoff and Stanford and the like, and now everyone's aware that there's bezzle. And everyone's suddenly skeptical of their financial arrangements and the bezzle can't hide so easily anymore.
Similarly with the national pork barrel, federal subsidies and tax-law loopholes, and other arrangements in the social architecture. When times are good, few people mind too much if there's a bridge to nowhere here or there, because there's plenty of credit to go around and everyone's getting their own deals anyway. When times get tight, all those arrangements get an entirely different level of scrutiny, and the cost-benefit tradeoffs look very different as well.
This will be a very interesting theme to track going forward!
Wisdom Speaker Wed Apr 1 19:14:09 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
New total, new total ! : 47 states in the sh!tpile:
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=711
Guess that's all priced in.
Huh, wha?!
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 19:15:01 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel,
I just don't know what's next. They made it seem so easy in Star Trek, they focussed their overproduction into exploring space, science, and culture. We've focussed our overproduction on poorly constructed objects of fleeting vanity
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:15:19 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Hmmm, looks like ODOT is getting tired of fake resumes. This same job has come and gone, this is the third pass but now it requires all sorts of new details.
The sad part is that I could easily do it but I'm competing against tons of fake resumes and I don't claim to know a couple of key pieces but frankly, they're just flipping API sets, not the Keys to Universal Godhood.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 19:15:52 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
ODOT?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:21:39 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Blackhalo,
real germans drink beer in a cup. Maybe Werner is a whine maker though. Could he really be 2 buck werner over there?
cd Wed Apr 1 19:17:41 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Pavel-
You carry yourself with aplomb. I'm sorry you got hounded for your beliefs the other night.
I thought to defend you, but, I reckoned it would be insulting."
Thanks, Hong Konger. I'm getting used to being hounded and despised. It's supposed to be good for the soul. : )
St. Francis once said to - brother Leo? - wouldn't it be great if we arrived at a monastery after an exhausting all day walk through an icy cold winter rain, chilled to the bone, and we knocked at the gate, and a monk opened the gate just a little, and stared at us with disdain, and then told us: "You've got some nerve thinking we'd admit a couple of bums like you. Take a hike!" And then slammed the gate on us.
[St. Francis off].
Good lesson in humility, no? Yeah, one shouldn't get proud of taking punishment. That wouldn't be very humble, would it? : )
Really, I'm very comfortable for an old pensioner. I've got no complaints, and if I take some grief for my religion, that's a privilege, not a cause for complaint.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 19:21:36 2009 CDT #
Allen C says:
FNM FRE..."The companies must pay a minimum dividend of 10 percent."
Is there a plausible explanation for this beyond political?
0, 2, 5, 10, 100...Who cares...THEY'RE INSOLVENT!
Allen C Wed Apr 1 19:23:32 2009 CDT #
scone says:
ODOT? = Oregon Department of Transportation
scone Wed Apr 1 19:23:40 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
ODOT = Oregon Department of Transportation. Synchronicity. All this jabbering about Oregon must have tipped the universal scales to redirect this Q&A back to me.
Broward Horne Wed Apr 1 19:23:51 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
(2nd Try)
What does federal ownership of 1/2 of Oreegon have to do with development of a 'modern economy?'
WHAT INSANITY? The REAL question should be, "What gives The FedGov the right to own ANY State Lands?" Jeeminy Christmas.
Isn't The Constitution in essence a contract with a group of administrators to help the States run a few things? The contract can't own property. The administrators sure as hell can't either.
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 19:26:08 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"WHAT INSANITY? The REAL question should be, "What gives The FedGov the right to own ANY State Lands?" Jeeminy Christmas. "
My guess would be the Louisanna Purchase or some such thing that pre-dates state hood. Plus states have a history of being less than competent consevators.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:34:34 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Pavel,
I just don't know what's next. They made it seem so easy in Star Trek, they focussed their overproduction into exploring space, science, and culture. We've focussed our overproduction on poorly constructed objects of fleeting vanity"
EHP, I have to apologize - I probably flew off the handle without understanding your point, got onto my own hobbyhorse.
I never watched much Star Trek, but what I did see struck me as nearly the most improbable future anyone could imagine.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 19:26:37 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel,
Please do not apologize, the past is past and the end result in my opinion was good because of how we came to agreement. I would rather deal with a thinking person, than one who was polite or in agreement with me.
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:33:55 2009 CDT #
Dope Alert says:
What are they going to do with this federal land? build toll roads thru forests...
Now there's an idea. Have the Mendocino overlords ship Pakalolo seed from an independent HI to the fertile field's of Oregon and have a toll road straight thru the willamette to the haight.
Dope Alert Wed Apr 1 19:27:53 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Isn't The Constitution in essence a contract with a group of administrators to help the States run a few things? The contract can't own property. The administrators sure as hell can't either."
A bit late to say that, by a few hundred years. But no, for one thing, there were serious foreign matters to be taken care of. Trade and war, for instance. To carry on with these it was necessary to tax.
Pavel Wed Apr 1 19:31:23 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Werner seems to be rather oblivious about german history.
Lucifer Wed Apr 1 19:31:50 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
WTF happened tonight? Did Crbot distribute an angry pill with every pageview?
C'mon people. Please, the pitchforks and torches are rhetorical here.
And if I see another 'postrophe violation you're really gonna see some fireworks. At this crucial time in our economy's performance and prospects I simply will not let the 'postrophe be traded off against the margin. It is critical for our collective future.
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 19:32:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
China’s leaders, increasingly concerned about the nation’s $740 billion of U.S. Treasuries, are making it easier for trading partners and consumers to do business in yuan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a.lhD2W5k.lY
Well Now.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 19:33:28 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
It's never too late, Pavel, for changes to contracts or forgiveness.
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 19:33:36 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Anyway, without the authority to acquire new federal territory, there would be no country for us to argue about. How would Jefferson have acquired the Lousiana Territory as a mere contracted administrator?
Pavel Wed Apr 1 19:34:33 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
Moody's Corporate Default and Recovery Rates, 1920-2008
http://www.moodys.com/cust/content/content.ashx?source=StaticContent/Free%20Pages/Credit%20Policy%20Research/documents/current/2007400000578875.pdf
I would have thought refunding risk would be at the top of their list.
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 19:36:24 2009 CDT #
cd says:
We haz so much money, lets help our friends who gave nuke recipes to everyone...give money to a military junta..
obama wants 3 billion for pakistan military
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090402/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_afghanistan_pakistan_4
cd Wed Apr 1 19:36:31 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
I'd love to debate anything instead of milking the cow, but she gets a might "testy" if I'm late with THAT! Hasta Luego.........
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 19:37:44 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
re: Bond Girl, Moody's doc
We're #1!... ?
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:38:51 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
That's better. Thank you people.
Right, so this G20 shizzle is going to succeed wildly?
Bueller?
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 19:41:05 2009 CDT #
mal says:
I just want to say, that it's refreshing to see an economic discussion that centers on actual resources rather than exotic loan products and other waste paper products.
We've turned a corner.
mal Wed Apr 1 19:42:51 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
so when we are a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese, will we still say things like "hey, anybody want to get some chinese food?", or are we just gonna call it "food".
the man from nantucket Wed Apr 1 19:43:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I never watched much Star Trek, but what I did see struck me as nearly the most improbable future anyone could imagine." It was the 60's. Flower power, peace and love and all that stuff. I can't explain Next Gen or Voyager though, that was just dumb. DS9 had some actual economics to it, with trade and the Ferengi and their rules of acquisition.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:44:43 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Counterpointer,
This meeting to tackle the international financial and economic crisis, restore worldwide financial stability, lead the international economic recovery and secure a sustainable future for all countries is not a meeting to tackle the international financial and economic crisis, restore worldwide financial stability, lead the international economic recovery and secure a sustainable future for all countries.
With due hômage to Magritte
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:44:51 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
EHP-
With apologies to you (but due to regs), I can't give you what you are asking. However, I can say (as a general rule) that everyone assumes the best until it dawns on them that there might be an increasing probablilty of the worst. Which they naturally discount to zero at the onset.
Then, the deluge...of postponed due diligence.
Finally, everyone gets very particular.
In general, I'd comment that the recent revisions to the BK laws in the States have upset the natural order of things and that fact has added much to the discussion about intrinsic value and how to "equitably" transfer it under current legal regimes.
I could go on, but, I don't think it's helpful to the board since I can't elaborate.
Suffice to say...it's turning into a legal nightmare as everyone involved is positioning now... regardless of price. My prediction is capital will be tied up for years.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 19:47:21 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
hong konger,
That's why I called it story time. Could be hypothetical, could be fictional,... names and details less important than the general plot or moral of the story.
I think you did get the general point across. Naughty portfolio managers, naughty naughty naughty. Bankruptcy is less predictable, exacerbating the impact of a downgrade. What's worse, people are preparing for a siege war in court.
I get that right?
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:54:53 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Re: "The states’ fiscal problems are continuing into the next two years. At least 44 states have looked ahead and anticipate deficits for fiscal year 2010 and beyond. These gaps total almost $105 billion — 17 percent of budgets — for the 38 states that have estimated the size of these gaps and are likely to grow as gaps are re-estimated in the next few months."
This will be a Trillion in no time!
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 19:47:43 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"These gaps total almost $105 billion"
Yeah, chump change. We gave more thatn that to AIG.
Won't the stimulus package help to some degree?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:53:38 2009 CDT #
The Notorious A.I.G. says:
G20: Ceci n'est pas un stinking heap of poopie.
The Notorious A.I.G. Wed Apr 1 19:49:54 2009 CDT #
scone says:
I gotta go with State government incompetence for 600, alex.
If the state is not taxing those who benifit the most from the state to give a helping hand to the least among us... well then.
Not that I have room to talk as Texas has loads of rural and urban poor.
.
It's not just incompetence, it's corruption. In my county, the 'timber barons' own most of the land and the sawmills. They control the jobs. They fund political candidates. They suppress the newspapers.
On a state level, it's Portland dominating everything else. Portland wants environmentalism, but it doesn't give a tinker's damn about a bunch of dirt poor ignorant hillbillies out in the sticks. As a result, the hillbillies are starting to vote for the Repubs, and the urbanites are not responding at all. The urban merlot Democrats are not on speaking terms with the union boys out in the countryside, and the Democratic party as a whole is gradually losing its effectiveness. This urban/rural polarization is crushing any debate on real solutions, as you can see by some of the snark here.
scone Wed Apr 1 19:50:03 2009 CDT #
Chungking Gourmand says:
"so when we are a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese, will we still say things like "hey, anybody want to get some chinese food?", or are we just gonna call it "food"."
Rice. The Chinese call their "food" rice, even if they happen to be eating at a Pizza Hut....
Chungking Gourmand Wed Apr 1 19:50:50 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
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http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/auto-sales-ray-of-sunshine.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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CRbot Wed Apr 1 19:52:17 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
corp profit margins compressing from all time highs, huge pension shortfalls, 401k values reduced by 20-40%, state and fed tax revs down huge, cost of borrowing on the rise, unemployment increasing, savings rate needs to go up, alt-a reset wave starting later in '09, govt printing $ faster by the trillions, govt puring 100's of billions of $ down rat-holes, etc. etc. yeah, we're good.
the man from nantucket Wed Apr 1 19:57:50 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
NP government rolaty short $300K retirement funds. Blame the market? Eyes shut?
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Apr 1 20:04:29 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
Apologies. It's not capital that's being tied up (proxies for it are being shoved out the door by the truckload). Valuable consideration/ productive replacement cost is being tied up for years.
Anyway, you guys and gals can see what is happening. Just because it's occurring slowly and in conference rooms doesn't make it less real.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 20:04:46 2009 CDT #
scone says:
scone, if you look at the location of federal lands in the west, most of it is not terribly hospitable: desert, severe mountains, or severe weather (e.g. Nevada, eastern Cal, Alaska). If the federal gov. had much land valuable for development, I think it's a safe bet it's already been sold. I'm not arguing with the spirit of your argument, just pointing out that it's unlikely much cash would be raised, and availability of the land for public uses would be forever lost.
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Actually, it is being used-- overgrazed by cattle and sheep, for example. Or mineral and oil leases that are handed out to the good buddies of the powers that be. At any rate, the amount of PILT money the Feds give is not under state control, the states don't get to assess the land, using local valuations, so no one knows what it's worth. The Fed sets a price, and dictates the result. There's something inherently unfair about this.
Making the land Federal means it's out of local control. So if the Fed wants to put a nuclear missle dump on the land, the locals are just SOOL. Although they are allowed to 'comment' on public meetings...
Seriously, I like the way NH handles public land. A township sets property taxes, the taxes stay in the township, the township buys land and puts it into conservancy. It all stays local, and the 'public use' aspect is satisfied, along with the environmental angle. In my view, that's the way to handle it, not through BLM and DOI, which are run by political appointees. Remember Watt? Why should he control the fate of the West?
scone Wed Apr 1 20:10:03 2009 CDT #
MichelleW says:
Sorry no sympathy here..the banks had since 05 had they listened to economists worldwide who were signaling the titantic iceberg ahead..and they had since 07 to work with fixing and heading off the defaults in both residential and commerical..let the ones who got greedy fail so that American capitalism can create new "blood and millionaires" to take this country forward..the past and present golden parachute CEO's need to be put out to pasture..greed is not good..it is a cancer that has killed this country...
MichelleW Wed Apr 1 20:12:24 2009 CDT #
anotherajh says:
EHP: We've focussed our overproduction on poorly constructed objects of fleeting vanity
I think I'll quote this, though it makes me very sad.
anotherajh Wed Apr 1 20:17:57 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..................Insolvency Proceedings Initiated for Qimonda.............................
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/memory/display/20090401121404_Insolvency_Proceedings_Initiated_for_Qimonda_Memory_Production_Stopped.html
..................upgrade your memory quick......semi market will bounce rather quickly.....
Jay D. Wed Apr 1 20:22:06 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
This is a test post through the CRbot synchronization service.
briwerk Wed Apr 1 20:33:57 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
poic.v20 says:
... As long as you're all into constantly slamming American culture left and right on this board is it alright for me to slam German racist behaviour based on my wife's experiences?...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Absolutely !
No question you are entitled to do that !
Werner Wed Apr 1 21:40:20 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Lucifer says:
...“Werner seems to be rather oblivious about german history.
------------------
I guess I have with that history as much to do as you !
Werner Wed Apr 1 21:47:51 2009 CDT #
kidbuck says:
Why only 500 whores? Were the rest home counting their trillions?
kidbuck Wed Apr 1 23:04:15 2009 CDT #
jm says:
The forests of Japan were managed because they were the personal property of the emperor.
jm Thu Apr 2 01:45:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
/T : ...GM, Ford Post U.S. Sales Declines Less Than Estimates... ((http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8n4mtEpLuMU&refer=home)) ---------------------------- "better than expected ; decline less than expected , etc. ". These .uckers just can not tell the truth ! American propaganda is just despicable and repugnant !! It's american culture, I know . But I am starting to ask myselfs what kind of people are these who need these kind lies (and have it as their culture) ? Yuck! Ecclesiastes: "The heart of the wise is in the house of mourning; but the heart of fools is in the house of mirth."
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 05:06:58 2009 CDT #
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