Comments for Durable Goods Orders Rise in February
Anonymous says:
Nemo
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 07:50:53 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3493761805904616690
CRbot Wed Mar 25 07:52:25 2009 CDT #
singe says:
First half recovery? O:-)
singe Wed Mar 25 07:52:59 2009 CDT #
Stuart says:
I call BS. :-E
Stuart Wed Mar 25 07:56:08 2009 CDT #
JS says:
Are durable reports subject to revision?
JS Wed Mar 25 07:57:15 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
These days, even the truth is subject to revision.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 08:11:32 2009 CDT #
Pauln says:
Exactly, why such big revisions, this just means putting some of Febs decline into Dec and Jan to keep rally going - I suppose this is justified as national security. =-O
Parent Post
Pauln Wed Mar 25 09:09:14 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
"This is still a decline of 22% from February 2008."
Thanks, CR, for the proper perspective.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 25 07:59:05 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Compressed demand from the October-Jan panic period. The Titanic hit the iceberg. Everyone screamed and fell over. Now everyone is standing up, dusting themselves off, treating the guy the piano fell on, etc.
Now the ship sinks.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Mar 25 08:00:03 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Huge revision down in Jan, so comps are much easier than expected. And this could be revised away too...
bearly Wed Mar 25 08:00:18 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
CBR,
But there are some deck chairs that need some rearranging first! ;-)
energyecon Wed Mar 25 08:00:46 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
Gilt Bond Auction failure! Nothing important though, durable good sales are up! =-X
GYSC Wed Mar 25 08:02:54 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
Looks like the economy is stabilizing somewhat. Celebrate.
Automonkey Wed Mar 25 08:03:34 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
A lot of people are missing the white elephant that is the end of June, which is the end of the fiscal year for many, many big companies. We're just now starting hum and ramp up to the new unemployment carnage that will take place then. It's gonna be as bad as December, IMO. .... And then once that's over, you'll see: 1. Folks who are on a calendar fiscal year start to assess their Q3 and Q4 cuts, and the folks on July-June continue to tighten their belts for the new year, so they can hit new targets.
Does anything else matter if we keep bleeding jobs and cutting salaries like we are?
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Wed Mar 25 08:04:12 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
What GYSC said...
U.K. Gilts Slump After First ‘Failed’ Bond Auction Since 1995
By Kim-Mai Cutler
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. gilts slumped after demand at an auction of bonds fell short of the amount offered, the first time the Treasury failed to attract enough bids at a sale of nominal debt in 14 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQGG.mWeZ4eU&refer=home
energyecon Wed Mar 25 08:04:15 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
Whoops, Fitch is revising loss estimates for prime mortgages. A couple of those in a AAA tranche can make an mbs worthless.
A dramatic rise in delinquencies has led Fitch Ratings to raise its average loss estimates for recent vintage jumbo prime mortgage pools to between 3 and 5 times higher than its previous estimate.
Fitch’s revised average loss estimates as a percentage of the remaining pool balance for recent vintage jumbo prime RMBS are as follows:
Fixed-rate loan pools 2005: .97; 2006: 2.05; 2007: 2.58.
Hybrid ARM pools 2005: 1.60; 2006: 3.55; 2007: 4.81.
These 2005, 2006 and 2007 revised loss estimates are approximately three, four and five times higher, respectively, than the prior loss estimates.
In analyzing recent prime mortgage performance Fitch found that:
* Loans with multiple risk attributes such as limited income documentation and second-liens, are defaulting at rates approximately three times that of loans without those characteristics;
* A growing percentage of prime borrowers have lost all home equity due to declining home prices. Borrowers with negative equity in some recent vintage mortgage pools are approaching 50%;
* After adjusting for home price declines to date, loans estimated to have no equity in the property are defaulting at rates approximately three times that of loans estimated to have equity remaining.
* In addition to high default rates, recovery rates on defaulted loans are also trending downward.
“Delinquencies have risen dramatically for prime RMBS transactions as borrowers have come under increasing pressure from declining home values, lack of mortgage financing, and rising unemployment.”
For details see U.S. Prime RMBS: Performance Update.
Sexy Derivative Wed Mar 25 08:05:56 2009 CDT #
ac says:
I thought this looked positive at first. Then I saw the massive downward revision to last month and it looked like economists expectation for this months decline was still there when you look at the two months together.
ac Wed Mar 25 08:05:57 2009 CDT #
JS123 says:
Andrew Jackson: Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, will rout you out.
Barak Obama: Here's the keys to the treasury, Mr. Viper sir.
JS123 Wed Mar 25 08:06:49 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
So would the Month Over Month increase being touted even exist without the downward revision of the January number?
energyecon Wed Mar 25 08:07:11 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
“Yes, durable goods orders are subject to revisions - January was revised to -7.3% from -5.2% and December was revised to -4.6% from -1.5%.
So, Dec-Jan was revised from -6.7% to -11.9%
In absolute terms the level of durable goods orders is back where it was in 1999.
MrM Wed Mar 25 08:08:26 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
America on it's way to hell :
European Union President Blasts U.S. Economic Stimulus
BRUSSELS — Transatlantic tension over the handling of the global economic crisis intensified on Wednesday when the prime minister of the Czech Republic, which holds the European Union presidency, described the U. S. stimulus measures as the "way to hell."
Addressing the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek argued that the Obama administration's fiscal package and financial bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."
(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/world/europe/26czech.html?ref=world)
EU presidency: US economic plans 'a way to hell'
STRASBOURG, France (AP) — A top European Union politician on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as "a way to hell."
Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."
(http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iiXCmvt7Z8-97sodbSHsAd03V0AwD97515C00)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Happy AAA-lying and money-printing .
Werner Wed Mar 25 08:09:17 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
America is Sodom and Gomorrah of the modern world. The way to global hell is thru America because Crooks were allowed to take control.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 25 08:20:08 2009 CDT #
ac says:
In absolute terms the level of durable goods orders is back where it was in 1999.
That means stocks should be back up to 1999 levels by the end of the day!
ac Wed Mar 25 08:10:28 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
All the growth in the US economy since 1997 has been artificial and by increases in household debt levels. We are going to give back all that growth from 1998-2007. Can you spell depression?
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 25 08:17:02 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT-
I only caught part of the President's address last night, and I've heard rumblings that they're going to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners. Please tell me this isn't true. I'm just getting ready to pull the trigger on our new home Cry
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 08:10:49 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Cinco-x,
If I remember right, they want to do away with the mortgage deduction for people/couples earning more than ~$205,000 a year.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 08:12:50 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Oh! Then I guess it's a good thing my wife doesn't make much;-) My income is about 4X her's, and we're still WAY below that figure. Whew! Thanks again...
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 08:15:54 2009 CDT #
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CRbot Wed Mar 25 08:13:35 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
YoY decline in DG is only one reflection of THE WORLD BRIMMING WITH EXCESS CAPACITY. How is the Fed going to create inflation in such an environment?
On the demand side the vast majority of Americans don't have the money to spend, especially, now that they really need to save for retirement rather than depending upon the Scam Market and housing price appreciation.
Inflationists cannot take their blinders off.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 25 08:15:01 2009 CDT #
Lazar Kaganovich says:
Btw, Werner, Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek was forced out of government yesterday on a vote of no-confidence.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/czech-government-ousted-f_n_178600.html
-
Lazar Kaganovich Wed Mar 25 08:15:17 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
And so the band played on...
I am puzzled, yes, a place I spend a lot of time in, if there has ever been so many brush fires burning in the economic underpants of so many countries?
The Czech Republic - a trend? At least it was bloodless.
Poland? The Zloty has lost 1/3 its value I think.
Latvia runs out of money in June?
Lithuania, and Estonia - How deep are the Italians, Swedes, and Germany in there?
Austria?
Germany, getting hammered by falling exports. A few bank problems of their own.
The UK? How far away from real problems? Like the kind that make people go into the streets?
Italy? Out of money and running out of time.
Hungary? Same as above
Japan - your exports drop 50% !!!!!!
I know I missed a lot, including the 800 lb squirrel in the room. The USA
It seems like all these are roughly on the same time schedule for meltdown. June through September
nova Wed Mar 25 08:17:08 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
Werner says:Today, 5:09:17 PM
“America on it's way to hell ...
Are handbaskets classified as 'durable goods'?
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Wed Mar 25 08:18:05 2009 CDT #
dashingdwl says:
Durable goods is also very volatile.
With Asian exports down 40-50%, it's pretty hard to believe these numbers unless one is stoned.
dashingdwl Wed Mar 25 08:18:08 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7 percent"
"This is still a decline of 22% from February 2008."
February numbers normally point up from preceding January figures? This last week seems like I've been living through a non-stop Obama - Geithner infomercial. Every hour of the day one of them has been reaasuring America with a bed-time story - whether it's 10, 2, & 4 - another soothing episode of "Change You Can Believe In".
Black Star Ranch Wed Mar 25 08:25:49 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
nova says:
...I am puzzled, yes, a place I spend a lot of time in, if there has ever been so many brush fires burning in the economic underpants of so many countries?...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And we all know the source of the fire !!
Werner Wed Mar 25 08:35:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7 percent."So,half of the so-called increase is the Pentagon.What every would we do, if didn't have our arms trade.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 08:50:28 2009 CDT #
REW says:
Re Mortgage Deduction: If Obama's explanation last night was correct, the proposal would cap the value of mortgage & charity deductions at 28% rather than allowing them to increase as the taxpayer's maximum tax rate increases. So wealthier taxpayers would still get a deduction, just not as much.
REW Wed Mar 25 08:55:20 2009 CDT #
duke of con dao says:
REW: yeah I knew there was no way Prez O could eliminate those deductions, esp for charities... during the last recession in '91 I did a study for Ford Foundation on about 550 non-profits - theatres, orchestras, museums spread across the nation. Non-profits are run like socialistic state owned enterprises. Roughly for every dollar received the fund raising costs was around 71 cents. And nearly 70% of the jobs were held by women...
duke of con dao Wed Mar 25 09:18:47 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
azar Kaganovich says:
“Btw, Werner, Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek was forced out of government yesterday on a vote of no-confidence.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
He said this in his function as the current EU-president (and thus as the spokesman for the EU, which is NOT the Czech Republik ! He got NO vote of no-confidence from the EU !
And you know that you hypocrite.
Werner Wed Mar 25 09:22:38 2009 CDT #
skline2 says:
comparing February to January durable goods orders have risen 24 out of the last 26 years. Big Freakin' Deal!
skline2 Wed Mar 25 10:06:57 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"This is still a decline of 22% from February 2008"
No mention of the "second derivative". Has that term been laughed out of polite discourse? Looks like the market has figured out the 2nd derivatives this week. Are they running on fumes, or is it time to pull over and start huffing on whatever is left in the tank?
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 11:32:26 2009 CDT #
END