Comments for Lower Mortgage Rates as Economic Stimulus
Nemo says:
Money represents wealth.
Where does the wealth for this "stimulus" come from, exactly?
Nemo Wed Mar 18 16:35:04 2009 CDT #
Gorgonzola says:
From the leaven of the Pharisees. Same as it was 2,000 years ago. 'Course, they didn't have paper, intaglio, and computa techmology then, or Monsanto rat DNA genetically modified super yeast either. Will wonders never cease?
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Gorgonzola Wed Mar 18 16:54:49 2009 CDT #
Mike Smith says:
"Money represents wealth. Where does the wealth for this "stimulus" come from, exactly?"
Taxes, in the form of money paid to the banks so they can afford to lower interest rates that much.
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Mike Smith Wed Mar 18 19:21:38 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
My guess is the taxpayer who are subsidizing lower rates. The spread is the same (or better) for the bank. Not really a free lunch. It is, however, a very regressive and unfair tax on low income people and renters. The culture in America is about home ownership because it is the easiest way to keep millions of people under debt their adult life. It keeps the hamsters happy, hard working, fearful of losing their jobs and docile. Closest thing I have seen to voluntary slavery.
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Anonymous Wed Mar 18 20:01:53 2009 CDT #
comrade poor savings account says:
i just finished a re-fi... went from 6.25 to 4.75 on a 30-year fixed. Spending over 20% less a month on the payment.
But then again, I just stimulate my poor savings account.
comrade poor savings account Wed Mar 18 16:36:28 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3756848341455120393
CRbot Wed Mar 18 16:37:58 2009 CDT #
nades says:
How do they intend on doing this? Just buying and buying and buying in the secondary market?
nades Wed Mar 18 16:38:25 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Well of course since the new meme is risk realigning with return when they say 4.5% they really mean 3% for we 800+ FICOs and 5%+ for less worthy borrowers and 6.5% for risky prospects. Right? Right? [crickets]
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 16:39:20 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Dawg dont your know the 'risk premium' part of debt is sooooo late eighties. its gone out of style like the camaro and the mullet.....
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nades Wed Mar 18 16:49:55 2009 CDT #
833 Credit Report Here says:
I am supposed to re-fi next week at 4.5% and am going to call them tomorrow about making it lower. I will report back.
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833 Credit Report Here Wed Mar 18 17:22:53 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
My rank among the population is 810+. I wonder what percentile of the population I am better than?
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Michael Wed Mar 18 17:37:12 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
"Money represents wealth. Where does the wealth for this "stimulus" come from, exactly?"
Better question: Where is the wealth this money represents?
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 16:39:21 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
i just finished a re-fi... went from 6.25 to 4.75 on a 30-year fixed. Spending over 20% less a month on the payment.
...and the value of the underlying asset has changed by what ___% ? (on a FASB 157 M2M basis that is)
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:39:37 2009 CDT #
rich says:
It's not just lower mortgage rates. Hyperinflation will bring buyers back into the market because otherwise they will be priced out forever. This time, for real.
The impact of hyperinflation will be greatest in commodities, so it will drive up building costs and make existing homes relative more affordable than new homes. This is good. This is what the Fed wants.
rich Wed Mar 18 16:41:05 2009 CDT #
nades says:
rich,
i believe your hyperinflation scenario to an extent but what about the fact that housing is a non-productive asset. i cant see the inflation hitting capital that actually produces goods but there are too many houses and not enough people. i wonder if inflation doesnt pass on the housing sector of the economy.
also i think we need a currency crisis to get 'hyperinflation' i dont see that happening either.
still i believe your theory on commodities...
any thoughts?
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nades Wed Mar 18 16:47:35 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
But won't this hurt the existing MBSs as people refinance?
reptillian Wed Mar 18 16:41:40 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
"But won't this hurt the existing MBSs as people refinance?"
Those would be the forgotten man. Or the forgotten suckers.
Interestingly, FN30s didn't move a lot of the news, probably because no private investor wants to buy, since they have no assurance the Fed won't want to have 3% mortgage rates, or 2% mortgage rates, or...and the MBS they buy today will get hammered.
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ghostfacedinvestah Wed Mar 18 16:46:43 2009 CDT #
nades says:
ahhh negative convexity! such a beautiful thing... ;)
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nades Wed Mar 18 16:50:53 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
4.5% probably isn't low enough.
Previous bottom was 5.25% or so.
I'm guessing they'll have to push it down to 3% to salvage the current debt pyramid.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:41:50 2009 CDT #
® says:
I dont think brokers will be busy, lots of programs being taken away on the broker side. Retail loan officers will be swamped though.
I just checked BofA, it looks like they pulled their no closing cost loan. Rates are 5 @ par, 4.75 @ 1 pt, 4.375 at 2 pts.
® Wed Mar 18 16:42:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What affect on home prices this spring, 5 years, 10 years out?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:42:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
They will have to save the refinancing profit. It wont bost consumption
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:42:50 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Lower rates didn't get us into the housing bubble, lower rates won't get us out. Only the reintroduction of "affordability" products can do that: no documentation, interest only, option arms, teaser rates, etc. A lower rate on a 30 year fixed fully amortizing full doc mortgage isn't going to do much.
As it hasn't yet. When the Fed stepped in back in the fall, mortgage rates moved from the mid-6s to under 5, but yet house prices continue to fall, delinquencies continue to rise.
The US economy is broken, no amount of financial engineering is going to change that.
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ghostfacedinvestah Wed Mar 18 16:50:14 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"So, if the Fed brings 30-yr fixed rate mortgages down "to 4.50% and all homeowners are able refi, the aggregate permanent cash flow savings would be on the order of $200 billion per year."
meanwhile the aggregate impact of inflation will be how much?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:44:07 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"he aggregate impact of inflation will be how much?"
Cough, cough.
"Go away, kid, ya bother me"
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:45:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Isn't this an effort to reinflate the bubble? And won't it just postpone the correction? Are they trying to push the total collapse off until 2013 in hopes of getting reelected?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:46:13 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Isn't this an effort to reinflate the bubble?"
I think this is the exact opposite of that. This is capitulation that no way, no how are the zombie banks going to earn their way back to solvency w/o inflation.
If you don't want to bring housing prices to income, you can bring income to housing prices.
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Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 17:29:06 2009 CDT #
S says:
It is hilarious to watch people shouting at each other as they water fills their lungs..if on...l.....y....gurgle gurgle gurgle O O O O O O O O O
S Wed Mar 18 16:47:14 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"It's not just lower mortgage rates. Hyperinflation will bring buyers back into the market because otherwise they will be priced out forever. This time, for real. "
Rich, you've been calling hyperinflation for real for at least a year now. A 3% move in CDN is not hyperinflation. $50/barrel oil is not hyperinflation. As I pointed out previously CDN moved over 10c in either direction in a few days time multiple times last year. Where is this hyperinflation you speak of?
I will take 20% less in house price and a renegotiable rate any day of the week over a higher base price and a fixed rate.
poic.v20 Wed Mar 18 16:48:39 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
The reason why lower rates are seen as stimulating may not apply today.
This is not something modelled by "elasticity" or other downright stupid economic indicators where it is assumed market participants have no market power, or that things follow a parametric equation. It's a CAUSAL system.
Flattening the curve doesn't help because amortizing debt over longer periods no longer helps. Same goes for lower absolute rates.
The debt load is too high, and the only way to issue more new debt is if old debt is first defaulted on. That won't have the net positive impact they are looking for.
There is no asset class big enough to absorb the leverage which would decrease the debt load. Housing was freaking huge with minimal risk premium
There are people left out there, but they are precisely the people who can resist the unleveraged temptation if they have waited this long
----
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 16:49:01 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
wow, my words were jumbled in that last sentence, interesting bug
move unleveraged to the beginning of the sentence
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EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 16:51:07 2009 CDT #
nades says:
There is no asset class big enough to absorb the leverage which would decrease the debt load. Housing was freaking huge with minimal risk premium ~EHP
(Worth repeating...)
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nades Wed Mar 18 16:54:27 2009 CDT #
Bill says:
Evil Henry Paulson, I read your post today at 5:49:01, I wonder if you can 'dumb down' your thoughts on QE? I'm lost and would very much like to understand. The Wall Street economists generally think QE is good. That kinda scares me. Clearly you don't think QE will have its intended effects. Can you elaborate a little more? Thanks so much, you seem quite lucid!
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Bill Wed Mar 18 17:26:47 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
I'm unavailable for the next little while, but I'm sure there are others in the peanut gallery that will oblige
In short my thoughts are that the Fed can do whatever they want within their sandbox. Low rates, done. Print money, certainly inflation is not an option with the credit unwinding.
What they can't control is capital flight; and it will come. I call that re-importing inflation. The question I would ask about it though is whether it is a clean step-shift devaluation (eg Japan), or whether it becomes a self-feeding hyperinflationary disaster
The reasons why I think capital flight will come is not necessarily what investors will run away from, but in my opinion what they are drawn to. It's somewhat obvious US equities, bonds, consumption will not enjoy the same credit imbued growth in the near future
Do be aware that bankers have a statistically significant emotional bias when it comes to supporting currencies (referring to an econometric analysis that tracked credit rating, deficit, gdp growth, trade balance, etc... and the USD, GBP, EUR, CHF, JPY all exhibit irrational movements that do not show up with smaller currencies or rather currencies of smaller financial centres)
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EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 17:35:26 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"meanwhile the aggregate impact of inflation will be how much?"
I think Bernanke is fighting deflation at the moment.
If he overshoots, we'll see inflation. I think he
is aware of the game he is playing: fighting deflation
with what would under normal circumstancces be inflationary moves.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 16:50:06 2009 CDT #
sweetlady alabama says:
I owe over $300,000 on my home and grow all my own food and make my own clothes. I'm hoping hyperinflation pays off my home with the 100,000 dollar bills I'll be getting at the Farmers Market!
sweetlady alabama Wed Mar 18 16:50:32 2009 CDT #
scone says:
This hasn't spread through the system-- First Tech CU still at 5.25% 30 year fixed. 5.75% at Washington Federal.
scone Wed Mar 18 16:52:08 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
The flow will detract from present lenders who are actually getting payments from their borrowers. On the other hand, NOBODY IS FINANCING THE REOS. And in South Florida, there is NO financing except FHA. None.
Well, maybe if you have an 800 credit score.
We know the lenders are in such great shape, they won't mind at all having the interest rate income that they have slashed--not!
O wants to do something he needs somebody to offer 4.5% financing on REOs. Or tell the banks that if they don't sell within x months, they have to finance their own damn REOs.
Some money is better than no money.
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 16:52:28 2009 CDT #
o.d. jubilee says:
Liz,
Have you seen any cases in which the borrower goes after the lender for fraudulent lending?
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o.d. jubilee Wed Mar 18 18:49:10 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Stimulus? While mortgagors will pay less in interest, mortgagees will receive less in interest.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:54:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
How can all of these people Refi out of 6.5%, 80% LTV loans when their new LTVs are 90%+ ; which are no longer available. In addition, avg FICOs have deteriorated in the past 6 months. Banks aren't going to lend money.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:54:18 2009 CDT #
cd says:
EHP-like me...deflationary jane said it well in last thread...you can rent for so much cheaper than buying, I can't see a positive..I was thinking about a second home..now I'll refi the flat, rent it to students and rent for cheaper..I'm sure many here are the people the fed is trying to motivate to buy...they have de-motivated me with their war against my kid...
the great housing rush is over...just like the gold rush the merchants made all the money....
cd Wed Mar 18 16:56:05 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
" many here are the people the fed is trying to motivate to buy"
I'm done. The free trade policies have destroyed me over the past six years and I've already accepted that I'll be retiring in parent's house. Feds can get fucked, I'm not buying another house, regardless of what they do.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:58:58 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
There is too much momentum in the system for lower rates to matter now
pissing into the wind
The margin of stability closed in on where we were, and now we must say adieu to the unsustainable credit until the reset works its way through the system
ok ok ok, you want conventional economics? I have a case study, I'm in Vancouver right. We had a huge housing bubble, same deal as in the US but 18-24 months behind the Florida/Arizona/Vegas crests.
We have those low mortgage rates right now. In today's paper one local developer had huge Ads, http://www.thebeasley.com/,
Old price: $459,000
New price: $249,000
Keep in mind the prices were rising here up until May 2008, and units did sell at 'old price'. 46% off in 10 months, and in my opinion definitely falling more
Inventory dictates pricing. Learn it, live it, love it
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 16:59:14 2009 CDT #
MUI says:
The increasing number of people who are unemployed or worried about being unemployed won't buy a house if the rate is 4% or 6% or whatever.
MUI Wed Mar 18 16:59:19 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
High single digit inflation isn't really "hyper-inflation". It is relative to what we've experienced since the early 90s, but I remember the double-digit stuff and it wasn't that awful.
Doc at the Radar Station Wed Mar 18 17:00:50 2009 CDT #
OCDan says:
nades, I have been saying this for 2 years.
This bubble only existed because it was built on the largest possible asset for the largest swath of people.
A FREAKIN' HOME!
What, are we gonna get everyone with 1 to go in for a second, or maybe, a rocket ship.
Heck, there is no debt asset larger than a house for most people.
OCDan Wed Mar 18 17:03:09 2009 CDT #
nades says:
I have a cycle-cross bike i (over)paid a grand for. Thats worth more than half of the detroit housing stock ;)
Bikes for everyone. nova's been saying it for a while after all! :)
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nades Wed Mar 18 17:09:26 2009 CDT #
blah says:
the biggest change in mindset is that a mortgage isn't an asset anymore... its debt, like a car.
blah Wed Mar 18 17:04:58 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What is the effect on One Year LIBOR and other ARM related rates?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 17:07:19 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
BEST CASE SCENARIO
you lower payments for people in homes they want to keep right now.
What happens when all the vacant inventory drags the prices down further? You think anyone but an idiot will keep holding on to their home with 30% negative equity when everyone around them is defaulting? It's a non-recourse loan!
I'm not saying everyone defaults, I'm saying defaulting is contagious. People who wouldn't default amongst normal circumstances, who would liquidate their kid's savings and pawn family heirlooms, will do it now nonchalantly. Something to be done between playing minesweeper and getting more coffee
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 17:07:36 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"High single digit inflation isn't really "hyper-inflation". It is relative to what we've experienced since the early 90s, but I remember the double-digit stuff and it wasn't that awful."
During the 80s -- double-digit -- the banks stopped offering assumable mortgages. To sell a house, you often had to carry
the loan yourself, at less than market rates. It was also a
time when you could get 12% in an IRA, even more with treasuries.
But it was also a time when house prices went up.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:07:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Happy Days are Here Again
So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again
Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on
From now on ...
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 17:09:19 2009 CDT #
cd says:
broward, I like your take better but on earlier thread someone didnt like that use of words...I find it more realistic right now...
Regarding credit score destruction..here are some stats I whipped up for a large honda dealer...I dont know if this will load right but here it goes
Month 730+ 690-729 650-689 620-649 600-619 550-599 -549 No Score Total Apps Avg Score
Feb-09 8 11 10 8 6 23 56 24 146 574
Jan-09 13 8 13 10 9 13 53 11 130 586
Mar-09 6 0 7 2 2 7 23 4 51 582
if you go full screen it might work...
cd Wed Mar 18 17:09:28 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
cd,
That's the crux of the matter. The technical which reinforces the social logic.
You can't blackball people with bad credit when everyone has bad credit.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 17:11:16 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"there is no debt asset larger than a house for most people"
I think that is why down payments should be greater than 20%.
At 20%, a buyer has 5X leverage, which is too much in an
environment where prices may decline further.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:11:29 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
In addition, avg FICOs have deteriorated in the past 6 months. Banks aren't going to lend money.
Banks are actually doing the lending for many of the refis. They're processing them as servicers, but it's Uncle Sam holding the bag.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 17:12:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
EHP at X:49:01
That big picture site (as opposed to Ritholtz's) always has awesome pics. I especially liked the one of all the unused newspaper racks. That part of the boston globe site is one of the few on the web I'd actually pay to access.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 17:14:04 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Imagine a rich drunk in the bar. He is borrowing cash from you with IOU's at interest but you know he is good for it so you keep taking his IOU's. You find out he is broke from bad bets on the stock market. What are the value of his IOU's now? Hyperinflation does not come from issuing to much money in a debt based system, but the realization by other countries that you cannot pay them back. We may not have access to cash but still have hyperinflation because the rest of the world will not sell us anything. IMO Ben has taken a big bet that the rest of the world wants to keep the party going on the same terms.
Guest Wed Mar 18 17:14:31 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Even people paying their bills are having their FICO scores reduced.
That happens when a credit card company reduces their line of credit.
The effect of that is that the debtor is using a greater percentage
of their available credit, which looks bad to the FICO algorithm.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:15:01 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
U.S. President Barack Obama plans to hold a televised news conference on Tuesday night March 24, the White House said.
The news conference, which will be held at 8 p.m. EDT (0000 GMT), comes as the administration is trying to make the case for his proposed $3.6 trillion budget
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7225603&action=article
Don't worry about it home boy, Benny will print all that you want.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 17:15:29 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"In addition, avg FICOs have deteriorated in the past 6 months. Banks aren't going to lend money.
Banks are actually doing the lending for many of the refis. They're processing them as servicers, but it's Uncle Sam holding the bag."
Which is why 417k is the key. The liquidity is disappearing for jumbo loans and thus jumbo house prices. This is about slowing down the slide and preventing a wild offshoot on the downside, not magically preventing the slide in it's tracks.
The FOMC meeting minutes removed any mention of the recession ending this year. Couple that with double-digit unemployment, no liquidity in jumbo mortgage markets and things are going to get ugly.
poic.v20 Wed Mar 18 17:16:56 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Banks are actually doing the lending for many of the refis.
oops, should have read "Banks aren't actually doing the lending for many of the refis." *DONT_KNOW*
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 17:19:29 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Are banks actually lending elsewhere than in South Fla, Liz asks pathetically?
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 17:23:26 2009 CDT #
sweetlady alabama says:
I just read that the stock market is on a run to 10,000 one last time. Won't this change everything?
sweetlady alabama Wed Mar 18 17:23:35 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Check-out the landlord before renting!
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:23:57 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
I mean on their own behalf or the govt's behalf or anybody's behalf.
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 17:24:18 2009 CDT #
Max Schumacher says:
"High single digit inflation isn't really "hyper-inflation". It is relative to what we've experienced since the early 90s, but I remember the double-digit stuff and it wasn't that awful."
I was (and will be) when you realize your wages won't be inflating at the same rate. Didn't have global wage arbitrage 20 years ago like we do now.
Max Schumacher Wed Mar 18 17:24:59 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
ok the actual ad for that 'The Beasley' place
Studio, 430sq ft, $219k
1bed, 559sq ft, $249k ($439k)
1bed+den, 676sq ft, $318k ($519k)
2bed, 930sq ft, $497k ($755k)
That's 10 months after peak. Available mortgage rates are down at 3.5 - 4.15% (we do things a little differently, which is -- and I'm not sure -- but maybe 200bp lower than 1 year ago
The point is mortgage rates themselves mean zilch. It's inventory that determines pricing. Mortgage rate is just one variable that can convert non-owner to owner and eat away at that inventory.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 17:25:10 2009 CDT #
Lifeguard1999 says:
Back when the Fed started raising rates, you could get a 15 yr mortgage at 4.75%. I missed it by 1 day, and got mine at 4.875%. In December, a friend of mine got a 15 yr for 4.25%. Neither of us will be able to refinance soon.
Unless the Fed drives rates below 4%...
Lifeguard1999 Wed Mar 18 17:25:54 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
Guest a few comments back has it right. BB is betting that the world will take action to prevent the dollar from devaluing against their currencies. I think it is a good bet for the next couple of years while Europe+Asia are screwed and can't afford for US demand to drop any further. When the world economy starts to rebound things get murky.
Automonkey Wed Mar 18 17:25:58 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Yeah, as 833 points out, this may make people who are hoping for the lowest imaginable rates actually wait to see if it even goes lower.
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 17:27:31 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Are banks actually lending elsewhere than in South Fla, Liz asks pathetically?"
Banks don't want to lend with measly down payments.
So FHA, with 3% down, may be the only alternative.
But someone buying with 3% down is underwater immediately,
considering that it would cost about 6% to unload the house.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:28:25 2009 CDT #
833 Credit Report Here says:
Obviously this is not going to help the 8% who do not make their mortgage payment. Who it is going to help are the people who are more well to do who can refi and get their part of the TARP.
Pls no inflation comments. I know.
833 Credit Report Here Wed Mar 18 17:30:31 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
This stimulus is for the sheeple to feel good about debt again. Managers of their real wealth will just laugh watching them jump through the hoops! ;)
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 17:31:04 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Bill: Here is the result of Japan's QE: http://realize.org/brian/japan.jpg
briwerk Wed Mar 18 17:32:15 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Fire !
CRbot Wed Mar 18 17:32:19 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
Reptillian, that isn't true. It takes 0% to unload a house. Maybe the cost of a uHaul if you wanna be picky.
Automonkey Wed Mar 18 17:32:33 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
Reptillian, that isn't true. It takes 0% to unload a house. Maybe the cost of a uHaul if you wanna be picky.
Automonkey Wed Mar 18 17:32:36 2009 CDT #
® says:
http://www.bankofamerica.com/loansandhomes/index.cfm?template=lc_mortgage
So BofA online calculator.. 5% down and 20% down conforming loans... Same rate quoted!?
It used to allow conforming jumbo loans with 10% down.. now it appears 20% is the minimum.
I know they are about to go customer day 1 for the Countrywide integration, I wonder if this is a part of that or just general underwriting changes.
® Wed Mar 18 17:33:08 2009 CDT #
lama says:
I don't understand. 4.5% does not include a risk premium. Who will pay for the risk? I'm confused. They didn't teach this one in school. *DONT_KNOW*
lama Wed Mar 18 17:33:43 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
You pay for the risk, the taxpayer.
Parent Post
ghostfacedinvestah Wed Mar 18 18:53:53 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
My country has become an f-ing joke.
Michael Wed Mar 18 17:33:44 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Where does the wealth for this "stimulus" come from, exactly?
The same place they get all the ponies.
ac Wed Mar 18 17:34:12 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Remember where you were today people, because you may need to tell your children when they asked what happened.
C
Counterpointer Wed Mar 18 17:37:08 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
The day my country.....died.
So Bye Bye Miss American Pie...
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 18:11:50 2009 CDT #
Broker says:
Bloomberg News: "Housing Starts hit record 20 million in April. U.S. Futures climb."
Broker Wed Mar 18 17:38:32 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Reptillian, that isn't true. It takes 0% to unload a house. Maybe the cost of a uHaul if you wanna be picky."
Sigh. Jingle mail is destroying my credibility.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:39:18 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
The last couple of closings I did, 'way more than 3% was put down. One had nearly 20% down. There is no financing that I can see except FHA no matter how much you put down. People are going FHA, because that's all that's available, not necessarily because they only have 3%. Here, anyway. The closing I have tomorrow is Seller financing with 20% down. They went over to B of A and discovered the no cost closings had gone away. This is in Hendry county, which is in the middle of the state, and is pretty much the same as here. The owner is virtually giving it away. They gave seller financing once before, and this new loan is exactly half of the previous loan, which the Buyer at the time thought was very reasonable. Then the buyer walked away and gave back a deed in lieu of foreclosure. My clients own it free and clear. That's 100k down the drain, even if it was an imaginary 100k.
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 17:39:43 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
You can't bring up incomes in a weak employment environment. The Unions aren't going to be able to do anything this time around.
This is really an attempt to drive money absolutely anywhere except into Treasuries. They are going to need more than 300B since the Treasury is going to finance a cool additional tril of debt just for this year's deficit. Crap. If the Fed starts buying to keep rates low they are going to need to buy more and more and more... Which private investor wants 30yrs at 3.5%??? At 3%???... 300B my ass.
Automonkey Wed Mar 18 17:40:51 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
You can't bring up incomes in a weak employment environment. The Unions aren't going to be able to do anything this time around.
This is really an attempt to drive money absolutely anywhere except into Treasuries. They are going to need more than 300B since the Treasury is going to finance a cool additional tril of debt just for this year's deficit. Crap. If the Fed starts buying to keep rates low they are going to need to buy more and more and more... Which private investor wants 30yrs at 3.5%??? At 3%???... 300B my ass.
Automonkey Wed Mar 18 17:41:07 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Here's how we can fight Bernanke.
I'm announcing here on CR for the firs time;
The "Save to Save America" Campaign.
Uncle Sam wants you to start saving money now, to help Save America. My new bumper sticker; Save to Save America! Will be free to anyone who requests one, while supplies last.
You Can help Save America by participating in this campaign locally. Just have these bumper stickers printed up with the slogan; "Save to Save America", and distribute them free of charge if you have the means. Thank You.
Michael Wed Mar 18 17:43:25 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Another addition to the story of what is coming. Well, my version at least.
Excerpt:
I listened to Aly who was explaining to White Man, very patiently I thought, “I never took anyone’s job. I have, excuse me, had, a small business. I paid my taxes and bothered no one.”
“Right! A small business! I know the type. You charged one price for ‘your people’ and another one for people like me! You and your freaking 12 people in a three bedroom house, trashing my neighborhood. Driving down house prices! That’s another thing god damnit! Your freaking people!” he was starting to cross the line. I put my hand on the butt of my gun. I told myself “One more comment” and I move.
More: http://afterthecrash.net
nova Wed Mar 18 17:45:20 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Capital flight is already happening, I suspect. I'm certainly going to move everything I can out of here before the USG sets limits on it, which is a possibility, in my view.
scone Wed Mar 18 17:47:29 2009 CDT #
wcm says:
I am also convinced hyperinflation is on the horizon, maybe 2 yrs out, and perhaps as bad as in the Weimar Republic but certainly in the 50% - 200%/yr range .. I haven't been able to find anything to put my $$ in yet that I'm comfortable with, except gold, which has practical problems (except for the ETF GLD, which also has other issues) .. also, it just may be that all currencies hyperinflate .. what did you have in mind as a safe haven ??
I'm also curious as to who would buy debt longer than 3-6 months now?? The corporate debt market has shown considerable strength recently, and I'm wondering who in their right mind is buying, since when hyperinflation hits, it will hit so quickly that no one will be able to sell fast enough, as bond values will disintegrate instantaneously.
I'm actually hoping the Chinese save us by stopping their purchase of US debt .. this would probably halt the printing presses asap, save us all.
Parent Post
wcm Wed Mar 18 21:26:55 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
People may have to face the future: a house is what it is worth for shelter, maybe some small premium for "ownership," but that premium is doubtful when a comparable house can be rented for less per month than the cost of "owning."
reptillian Wed Mar 18 17:48:02 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
btw, CR
You want to talk about stimulus? How about the $350bn withdrawn from US equity mutual funds since last June? Or the $200bn in gasoline savings
Nevermind the $200bn loss attributed to the wealth effect, or the real loss of $800bn annually in mortgage equity withdrawal, or the growth of other forms of credit which exceeded GDP growth for a time.
$190bn... if everyone qualifies and chooses not to default
I'm not a doom & gloom type of guy, just a gloom type of guy
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 17:49:18 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
How about the $350bn withdrawn from US equity mutual funds since last June? Or the $200bn in gasoline savings
Don't forget about the actual stimulus bill v.1.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 18:06:51 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
I had a follow up that began with "yes, yes... they have a lot of direct spending" but that was eaten apparently.
Basic contention was the amount of money necessary to spend in amount/speed would cause an immediate capital flight
I mean the TALF is an admirable amount of spending according to plan,
in any event stimpack 2 (there was one in 2001) had less than 20% of it go towards new consumption, rest went to paying off debt. we knew from stimpack 1 that less than 25% would go towards new spending, stimpack 2 was less successful despite targeting demographics better... because surprise surprise the economy is a causal system and previously accumulated debt affects present spending
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 18:30:25 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Another Bailout Bonus: Fannie, Freddie .
They don't get it.
We need special legislation to tax this 100%.
debtinator Wed Mar 18 18:11:34 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
The "Save to Save America" Campaign.
If they can create claims on real goods faster than you can save claims on real goods you are just playing into their hands because you keep a higher "value" on their claim for real goods. You don't save sand at a beach. You just stop playing the game.
If they can
Guest Wed Mar 18 18:14:50 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I'm talking about saving cash in a mattress or a home safe. The ultimate Fed revenge.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 18:23:44 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Setser had a good post today with a chart showing how foreign governments have piled into short-term Treasuries, waiting for the inevitable skyrocketing of rates for long term treasuries. The chart looked like a coiled spring.
Kung Fu Panda Wed Mar 18 18:16:09 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - NBC Universal Chief Executive Jeff Zucker fired back at comedian Jon Stewart on Wednesday, saying it was "unfair" and "absurd" for the funnyman to criticize CNBC and question its coverage of financial news.
I read an odd little book once called (I think) rules for aging. I think rule #3 was leave bad enough alone
It has a lot of applications lots of folks involved could benefit from it.
Guest Wed Mar 18 18:18:28 2009 CDT #
TC says:
Dodd Admits!!!!
In a live interview on CNN, Dodd said, "I agreed to a modification in the legislation, reluctantly.''
http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-dodd-admits-knowing-of-aig-loophole,0,450055.story
Is there no end to the lies??????
TC Wed Mar 18 18:19:38 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
The children in our country are so screwed. I'm glad I don't have any kids to be taken advantage of by my government.
Michael Wed Mar 18 18:20:51 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
"After Dodd's segment was over, Blitzer continued with a live report in which he said that Dodd was "coming forward with a vastly different story'' on Wednesday than he had told to a CNN employee on Tuesday.
"It's very embarrassing to Senator Dodd to say one thing yesterday and another thing today,'' Blitzer said."
Thanks for the insight, Wolf! Now we know why you get paid the big bucks for reporting.
Kung Fu Panda Wed Mar 18 18:21:38 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
What will it be hyperinflation or debt slaves to the foreign bondholders? My money debt slaves to the bondholders with our politicos still managing us under their rule. Most Americans will never realize the difference.
Guest Wed Mar 18 18:29:26 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
It is a statistical impossibility for the American tax payer to ever pay back the 12 trillion dollar national debt and the 60 trillion of unfunded entitlement liabilities. The American tax payer has no intention of ever paying that money back.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 18:44:50 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Nothing is impossible. The treasury can just mint 12 one trillion dollar coins, or any more moderate equivalent. No default required.
The inflationary repercussions are what we would have to live with.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 18:47:04 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Difficult, yes. Impossible, no.
Parent Post
debtinator Wed Mar 18 18:47:15 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Ben Bernanke capitulated today.
Guest Wed Mar 18 18:33:16 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[The news conference, which will be held at 8 p.m. EDT (0000 GMT), comes as the administration is trying to make the case for his proposed $3.6 trillion budget]
It's pretty clear that the American public doesn't need to be sold on free money to throw around. They simply don't believe there's a consequence.
BHO should save his sales pitch for the CHinese and Japanese. They might have some concerns. In fact, after the crushing the dollah took today (and the hit to their holdings) they may not even be inclined to listen.
bearly Wed Mar 18 18:33:19 2009 CDT #
rich says:
Did you see that CNBC is reporting that the Fed's Treasury purchases are from 2-10 year maturity?
Like I've been saying, the average maturity in TBT is 25 years. There is no natural buyer out there for 25-year Ts. Not even the Fed.
The 30-year bond rallied today because the 10-year did. But in the days ahead, you will see them diverge. The Fed has the 10-year's back. Nobody in the world will want the 30-year. In fact, they will pile into short-term Treasuries and dump those over 10 years.
This is really a great buying op for TBT, if you have any hair.
rich Wed Mar 18 18:37:52 2009 CDT #
graingod says:
Rich your theory on TBT is flawed, You are betting against Helicopter Ben and if unemploy. numbers hit 10 this summer there will be a flight to quality . Think puts on TBT, and your theory on comm. prices might be correct , but the time frame could be 6 months to 3 years
Parent Post
graingod Wed Mar 18 18:48:13 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
rich --
Did you see that CNBC is reporting that the Fed's Treasury purchases are from 2-10 year maturity?
Not entirely. The New York Fed statement says:
The Desk will concentrate purchases in the 2- to 10-year sector of the nominal Treasury curve, although purchases will occur across the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves.
Parent Post
Nemo Wed Mar 18 18:57:06 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"They simply don't believe there's a consequence"
They're just accepting Bernanke's expert opinion.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 18:38:15 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
""They simply don't believe there's a consequence"
They're just accepting Bernanke's expert opinion."
I have been told that Ben Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression. And I take him at his word.
When we're in one he will finally know what to do. :-E
poic.v20 Wed Mar 18 18:41:06 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Ben Bernanke is an expert on the theory of the Great Depression, and in theory that is the same as in practice
and his textbooks are garbage... I don't even care if it's mostly the same garbage that everyone else puts out for undergraduate economics
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 18:44:32 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Brenanke has no mercy on our children.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 18:49:03 2009 CDT #
purple says:
None of this is a new source of productivity or dynanicism for the U.S., or even world, economy. It's simply more of the same.
purple Wed Mar 18 18:42:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Meanwhile savers and renters are totally screwed. Way to fight for the little guy, Obama!
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 18:43:22 2009 CDT #
Lord Bankenstein says:
Get into the new capitalism.
SBA loans backed 90%! That's 10X leverage.
Hire yourself!
Lord Bankenstein Wed Mar 18 18:45:30 2009 CDT #
Cynical Crap Shooter says:
Can we see the other side of the equation - how many dollars are going to be sucked out of the private sector to buy the Treasuries necessary fund this "stimulus"?
Cynical Crap Shooter Wed Mar 18 18:48:42 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Get into the new capitalism"
You misspelled "cannibalism".
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 18:51:30 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
Dr. Bernanke or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 18:51:49 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
That speech should be frightening because he does not respect the role of credit in all of this. He thinks the collapse in demand is a spontaneous phenomena of mass hysteria
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 18:53:45 2009 CDT #
Dope Alert says:
Where does the wealth for this "stimulus" come from, exactly?
from the dopes?
Dope Alert Wed Mar 18 18:52:08 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Who's carrying the feed at 8pm CSpan? I don't like the look of this.
C
Counterpointer Wed Mar 18 18:52:52 2009 CDT #
Mike in Long Island says:
Yes. Move's like this purchase of MBS and Treasuries will instill great confidence. Risk capital is sure to flow into the markets after such actions. /snark
Mike in Long Island Wed Mar 18 18:53:36 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
how many dollars are going to be sucked out of the private sector to buy the Treasuries necessary fund this "stimulus"?
Weren't you paying attention? No money will be sucked out of the private sector. Ben is going to make all new money.
Guest Wed Mar 18 18:54:08 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"So, if the Fed brings 30-yr fixed rate mortgages down "to 4.50% and all homeowners are able refi, the aggregate permanent cash flow savings would be on the order of $200 billion per year."
meanwhile the aggregate impact of inflation will be how much?
--
i would say somewhat less then the notional value of $560 trillion of derivative contracts evaporating.
debt to gdp at about 3.6x, add in shadow debt from hedge funds maybe 4.6x and assume real "debt" from derivatives (cds, etc.) being fairly small (5-10%) you're looking around 6.6x gdp. you don't stop deleveraging.
repeat after me. you don't stop deleveraging.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 18:54:39 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
We may consider each generation as a distinct nation, with a right, by the will of its majority, to bind themselves, but none to bind the succeeding generation, more than the inhabitants of another country.
Thomas Jefferson
Guest Wed Mar 18 18:55:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Doc at the Radar Station says:Today, 3:00:50 PM“High single digit inflation isn't really "hyper-inflation". It is relative to what we've experienced since the early 90s, but I remember the double-digit stuff and it wasn't that awful.
Exactly, I am amazed at how Bernanke and the FR don't believe that we can handle 6/7% interest rates. SAD.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 18:57:13 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
BHO's speech premise:
o We have nothing to fear but fear itself.
o The government should act responsibly with spending programs, in the future
o Individuals should pay down their debts, in the future.
He's right! He knows the future (since he's designing it with Timmay, Larry & Ben) and in the future dollahs will be worth a tiny fraction of what they're worth today... so better to wait.
bearly Wed Mar 18 19:00:16 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Rich your theory on TBT is flawed
graingod
Your theory on rich's theory is flawed.
Guest Wed Mar 18 19:00:25 2009 CDT #
graingod says:
explain please? are you long TBT
Parent Post
graingod Wed Mar 18 20:21:49 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Members of Congress Spam YouTube with cringe worth video
reptillian Wed Mar 18 19:02:36 2009 CDT #
Pat says:
I am looking for a re-fi here in Maine. I want that 4.5 rate. I cannot find any bank or CU offering lower than 5.5. I cannot get any servicer to answer why the rate of 4.5% is not available in my area. Does anyone know if the new rates should be nationwide or just to service the (big)foreclosure markets in CA, FL, NV?
I am not looking at foreclosure and have an excellent credit rating but I did purchase my home last Sept after a move from FL at a too high rate. Needed a place to live. Looks like I should have rented! O:-)
Pat Wed Mar 18 19:02:54 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Fed: Rates Going Much Lower
CRbot Wed Mar 18 19:03:01 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
RE TBT:
-it's run by those Barclays' sleazebags
-what about counterparty risk in the swaps mentioned in the prospectus
-Euro and Eurozone will blow up before Treasuries...EU will QE massively and EU banks were leveraged more than US banks...so flight to US quality likely
-
Kung Fu Panda Wed Mar 18 19:03:26 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
It is a statistical impossibility for the American tax payer to ever pay back the 12 trillion dollar national debt and the 60 trillion of unfunded entitlement liabilities.
Cancel medicare and SS. there goes $5.5 Trillion in debt and all of the unfunded entitlements. The Congresscritters will all be looking for new jobs though.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 19:07:29 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
wow.. .cancelling medicare would mean my grandma would die... I actually would shoot on sight anyone who tried to do that
Parent Post
citiprank Wed Mar 18 21:26:49 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
CR, I believe that there are some serious logical flaws in this argument.
First of all, the pool of homeowners who stand to benefit materially from refinancing is rapidly shrinking. 30-year mortgage rates have been hovering just above 5% since December, when the Fed first started buying agency MBS.
As noted by the rocket scientists at Housing Wire, this has resulted in a mini refi "boomlet"; however I'll wager that it pales in comparison to previous booms in the 2002-2004 period. I doubt there are many folks out there with fixed mortgages above 6%.
Also just because a homeowner is "able" to refinance doesn't mean that they will. Going from a 5.25% rate to a 4.5% rate doesn't make much sense, as it will likely take more than 5 years to recoup the fees and points.
Case in point, I refi-d in 2003 near the previous mortgage rate low at 5.875 on a 30. It was a marginal call as my original mortgage was 6.5%. However, I knew we'd stay in the house for a long time and we've made substantial progress in paying the note down. I have no intention of even thinking about another refi unless 15-year rates get below 4%.
Doesn't mean that there won't be some benefit here, but even half of the $190 billion quoted doesn't seem likely.
central_scrutinizer Wed Mar 18 19:08:20 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
I am looking for a re-fi here in Maine. I want that 4.5 rate. I cannot find any bank or CU offering lower than 5.5. I cannot get any servicer to answer why the rate of 4.5% is not available in my area.
Check out FinancialStability.gov :-D Think it might have to be a GSE loan.
http://financialstability.gov/makinghomeaffordable/refinance_eligibility.html
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 19:10:08 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
Money represents wealth.
Where does the wealth for this "stimulus" come from, exactly?
The money for this is coming from printing (apparently) so part of the wealth will come from an inflationary tax on existing dollar-denominated debt. Quite possibly Fannie, Freddie, and FHA will end up with a lot of fraudulent priced refi's or the debt will go sour later when interest rates return to normal and so a lot of the wealth will come from future taxes.
Fair Economist Wed Mar 18 19:11:48 2009 CDT #
JAF says:
it won't matter. The moronic liberals and sheeple in Connecticut and Massachusetts and Pennsylvania will still reelect Dodd, Frank, and Murtha no matter how many payoffs they take or boys they sleep with..
JAF Wed Mar 18 19:11:57 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The moronic liberals and sheeple in Connecticut and Massachusetts and Pennsylvania will still reelect Dodd"
I would not bet on that yet. Dodd is going to take a beating over the AIG bonus amendment.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:26:42 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
We must bring back protectionism.
America for Americans.
We can do it.
We have no obligations to the rest of the world.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 19:13:13 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
But we do have self-interest, no?
Parent Post
sm_landlord Wed Mar 18 19:23:35 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"We must bring back protectionism."
That would end us, so very, very badly.
You can't put the globalization genie back in the bottle with out serious economic harm.
Do you have any idea how expensive a 100% domestically manufactured car or TV would be? Not to mention the start-up costs, of needing to bring high pollution type manufacturing back on line.
Protectionism would really be a re-enactment of GDI.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:25:08 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
There is nothing wrong with the government protecting American citizens jobs and livelihood with fair trade.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 19:31:30 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Another trill pumped into the market today to buy MBS. Don't confuse deleveraging with deflation. We are inflating and its going to get serious real soon. BB is monetizing us to the moon
Markar Wed Mar 18 19:15:55 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
I see a lot of confusion here about inflation. I doubt we are going to see much inflation, even with the Fed printing like mad, let alone hyperinflation.
What are incomes doing? How about home prices? Today I noticed that for the first time in memory, diesel is now cheaper than premium gas (note to self - buy that Jetta TDI.)
That tells me that trucking and commercial transport is still declining.
Bernanke is on a mad quest to prove his doctoral thesis. If we do see any inflation at all, it will only lead to more pain for the 16% unemployed and those on fixed incomes. See Mish's latest post; he explains it better than I can.
Parent Post
central_scrutinizer Wed Mar 18 19:22:09 2009 CDT #
wtf says:
Dodd and Schumer have been the bankster's goto Senators for a long time. Why do you still have any faith in them?
wtf Wed Mar 18 19:18:19 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
More good news:
More consumers are just a paycheck or two away from ruin
"A MetLife study released last week found that 50% of Americans said they have only a one-month cushion -- roughly two paychecks -- or less before they would be unable to fully meet their financial obligations if they were to lose their jobs. More disturbing is that 28% said they could not make ends meet for longer than two weeks without their jobs."
"And it's not just low-income earners who would find themselves financially challenged. Twenty-nine percent of those making $100,000 or more a year said they would have trouble paying the bills after more than a month of unemployment."
What was that tag line for mortgage adverts? Oh, yeah:
"People are smart"
sm_landlord Wed Mar 18 19:22:06 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
On a lighter note, on this page Lance Armstrong is peddling energy supplements, in an ad window that also features colonic cleansers. Isn't capitalism wonderful?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/18/AR2009031801484_4.html?hpid=artslot&sid=ST2009031801503
reptillian Wed Mar 18 19:24:17 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Technical Analyst Magazine 2009 Annual Awards
CRbot Wed Mar 18 19:27:32 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
David Greenlaw's comment that CR highlighted is interesting to me because it's an action that will directly help homeowners who can refinance. This aid comes only after the government gave zillions of dollars in handouts to banks that still wouldn't help homeowners.
traderwalt Wed Mar 18 19:27:36 2009 CDT #
Pat says:
Ok, I am a sheeple. How do I know what avenue to pursue to protect my investment in my major asset, my home? There are so many competing messages that I cannot sort them out. I am retired, no pension, my husband, retired, with a pension and also a 40 hour job. We are just barely making it even though we did all we could do over the last 45 years to provide for our family and climb the prosperty ladder. We are now reduced to living on the edge of poverty through no fault of our own. Every entity has taken a bite of our savings until we wonder if we will end up on welfare!
Pat Wed Mar 18 19:27:59 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Pat,
Pay your house off or consider downsizing and pay it off. Pay all debt off and save what you can. Hang on for a rough ride ahead.
Parent Post
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 19:36:15 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
America: Freedom to Fascism - Director's Authorized Version
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1656880303867390173
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 19:40:32 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Do you have any idea how expensive a 100% domestically manufactured car or TV would be? Not to mention the start-up costs, of needing to bring high pollution type manufacturing back on line. "
Labor is a small part of the cost of a tech. product. The old plants are still here, and still zoned for what they used to do.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 19:29:11 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Do you have any idea how expensive a 100% domestically manufactured car or TV would be?
Blackhalo
Looks like you need some depression to knock you off your high horse, get you working for peanuts. Then the car won't be so expensive.
Guest Wed Mar 18 19:31:11 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"u can't put the globalization genie back in the bottle with out serious economic harm"
You mean like... a collapse of global trade that's already happened?
Scare tactic used to promote bullshit, and if you'd read any HISTORY, you'd know that this has all happened before. We're here beczuse of globalism, of constant disassociation of costs from benefits. If more debt can't fix debt, how can more globalism fix globalism?
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 19:31:13 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"If more debt can't fix debt, how can more globalism fix globalism?"
I personally do not think globalism is wrong, just broken by the pegged Yaun. China's fear of losing control with a government that is slow to adapt to change is fucking it all up. BB is about to evaporate their accumulated assets (along with all other savers) in a puff of inflation. My bet is that the Saudis sell first.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:40:56 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
If 4.5% s gooder than 6.00% then -2.00% must be even more betterer. Right?
There is only one solution to too much debt; less debt. Unfortunately the only schemes presented so far all involve more debt.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 19:31:35 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Inflation can and will happen without spiraling wages.
Markar Wed Mar 18 19:35:02 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
Please elaborate.
Parent Post
central_scrutinizer Wed Mar 18 20:00:07 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Every entity has taken a bite of our savings until we wonder if we will end up on welfare!
Pat
So I take it your not in the market for a second home? =-O
Guest Wed Mar 18 19:35:55 2009 CDT #
Pat says:
No second home - just want to preserve the very modest place we have. I could never have predicted that we would be in this position. We did all the right things and it still was not enough. It makes me angry.
Parent Post
Pat Wed Mar 18 19:51:22 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
"There is only one solution to too much debt; less debt. Unfortunately the only schemes presented so far all involve more debt."
Quoted for truth. Unfortunately all the people in power think that the cure to too much debt is more debt, because that is what blew the bubble. I think the bubble is finally burst this time, and you can't reinflate a burst bubble.
briwerk Wed Mar 18 19:36:38 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Do you have any idea how expensive a 100% domestically manufactured car or TV would be?
Blackhalo
Strangrly there's a case to be made for trashing every CRT in the country in favor of LCDs as it forestalls electrical demand long enough to allow new investment in things like solar rather than commit to new traditional generating capacity.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 19:37:35 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I think the bubble is finally burst this time, and you can't reinflate a burst bubble." They sure seem committed to continue trying though.
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:37:46 2009 CDT #
TC says:
I've heard of few cases recently of grandparents fully financing homes for their grandkids..
Kind of an odd bird in the flight-to-safety meme...But encouraging to see people being creative WITHOUT bank or government intervention...
TC Wed Mar 18 19:38:15 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Why We Need Criminal Investigations
CRbot Wed Mar 18 19:38:37 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Looks like you need some depression to knock you off your high horse, get you working for peanuts." That is going to have to be a pretty impressive depression to get me working for 10c on the $. Which is what we pay our Bangalore/Shanghai equivalents in my biz.
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:40:15 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
All these globalisation shills are just spouting what they were brainwashed in business school with, without ever thinking about what they were told. Business education has been focused on short term gains at the expense of long term gains. There is an excellent article about the problem with business schools here
reptillian Wed Mar 18 19:42:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"the US standard of living will equalize with the rest of the world..." I agree with that view and with the poster above that we get there via low wage growth inflation.
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:43:54 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
How do I know what avenue to pursue to protect my investment in my major asset, my home?
Pat, I do not know. I am pretty mad at the whole situation. I do not know a time in history where a government has been able to outsmart the market without serious consequences.
Guest Wed Mar 18 19:45:04 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I wish I could always be a sheep
I'd stay in the middle of the flock
There at night I could safely sleep
When those on the edge cowered at the howl
Deeper in the middle I would burrow
Safe from the wolf on the prowl
Teeth ripping at my friends flesh and bone
I would cover my eyes
Thank god I own my home
nova Wed Mar 18 19:46:11 2009 CDT #
Dope Alert says:
“"the US standard of living will equalize with the rest of the world..."
what a dope
Dope Alert Wed Mar 18 19:46:12 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
That is going to have to be a pretty impressive depression to get me working for 10c on the $. Which is what we pay our Bangalore/Shanghai equivalents in my biz
That is exactly what OB is doing by punishing business. Unions, Taxes, more unrealistic environmental, new energy to compete with what we have now. Totally the wrong direction with severe consequences.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 19:46:23 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
Your right, Ben. We need Bush back - someone you can help business, help flood victims, and find weapons of mass destruction after he allows a huge terrorist attack. Good thinking!
Parent Post
traderwalt Wed Mar 18 19:54:56 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"the US standard of living will equalize with the rest of the world..."
How does turning the US into Mexico benefit Americans?
Not that it matters now, the country is gutted and won't recover. The post-WWII culture has been dismembered over the past couple of decades by increasing numbers of intellectually dishonest special interest groups and cabals.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 19:49:24 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"How does turning the US into Mexico benefit Americans?"
I'm pretty sure the goal is still, to benefit bankers.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:53:25 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Understand that global wage arbitrage is not going to be bloodless. Much as tPTB wish for a manageable transition to lowest common denominator labor the realities are such that the high wage earners will not stand for it and the low wage societies will not withstand the social stresses.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 19:50:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"high wage earners will not stand for it"
Fear of hunger and hunger are interesting motivators.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 19:56:00 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
I think that the kink in the works is the number of people who are actually able to get that reduced rate money.
If there is no M2Market and no viable sense of what's actually in the capital base, then the lenders will continue to simply suck up the money and try to fill the black holes in their capital. Ditto with TALF...
You can take a banker to capital, but you can't make him lend.
The bastard.
homedad43 Wed Mar 18 19:52:00 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
"How does turning the US into Mexico benefit Americans?"
In a world of finite resources, the more peasants the richer the nobles.
briwerk Wed Mar 18 19:55:05 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Have been reading the Blood Bankers by James Henry. This guy is NOT tinfoil. Former chief economist for McKinsey.
Chilling.
C
Counterpointer Wed Mar 18 19:57:17 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Nikki tanks. Nice one.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Wed Mar 18 20:02:47 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Dodd admits inserting bonus loophole
BofA Ordered to Disclose Merrill Bonuses
reptillian Wed Mar 18 19:58:47 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"I wish I could always be a sheep
I'd stay in the middle of the flock
There at night I could safely sleep
When those on the edge cowered at the howl
Deeper in the middle I would burrow
Safe from the wolf on the prowl ..."
Flocks of birds, schools of fish, herds of gazelles...? Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?
Pavel Wed Mar 18 19:59:14 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Surprised the Nikkei isn't digging a deep hole with the dollah tankage.
bearly Wed Mar 18 20:00:24 2009 CDT #
nova says:
"How does turning the US into Mexico benefit Americans?"
More tacos?
nova Wed Mar 18 20:01:05 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
Nova: "How does turning the US into Mexico benefit Americans?"
"More tacos?"
Not just more but higher quality tacos, plus a vas selection of culinary delights.
Parent Post
Splat Wed Mar 18 20:03:35 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Flocks of birds, schools of fish, herds of gazelles...? Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?
We eat our own, so the protection should be from within?
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 20:01:48 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"We eat our own, so the protection should be from within?"
Nice! With no natural predators, we invent banking!
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:02:57 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
They need to drive it to 0.00 or 0.001, that should help enough homeowners.
Splat Wed Mar 18 20:02:19 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?"
Cannibalism - Being in the middle of the herd is like being in the middle of the stew pot.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 20:02:21 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Pavel,
I hope so. They are lambs. We are the flock of the Lamb of God
nova Wed Mar 18 20:02:35 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Flocks of birds, schools of fish, herds of gazelles...? Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?"
Courage? As in the courageousness of one person, which others will follow?
reptillian Wed Mar 18 20:04:05 2009 CDT #
cd says:
the bubble burst, its all over the consumers faces and it's in their hair..They don't want no more gum because they are still cutting their hair to remove the sticky mess left from the last bubble....
cd Wed Mar 18 20:04:29 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
I am not in the deflation camp but to say that with one stroke of a pen the FED has instantly created hyperinflation is ridiculous. We will be lucky to get 2% YOY in 2010.
Also home prices can still go down even during inflationary times. In fact real home price appreciation in the 10 years prior to 1997 were found to be 1% while Inflation ran 2-3%.
Tim waiting for 2012 Wed Mar 18 20:04:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I am not in the deflation camp but to say that with one stroke of a pen the FED has instantly created hyperinflation is ridiculous"
Depends on how much the Fed prints and how much China, Japan, the ME and the UK sell. If Ben is going to follow through on devaluing the currency, why would they continue to buy a depreciating asset.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:12:14 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
Good point. US debt is dollar denominated, so foreign central banks are exposed to currency risk. If the dollar does a face plant, China, Japan and ME are going to get paid back in worthless script.
Parent Post
central_scrutinizer Wed Mar 18 20:42:30 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"If the dollar does a face plant, China, Japan and ME are going to get paid back in worthless script."
I'm pretty sure that the recent meetings with China were around, "de-peg the Yuan, or we start printing."
However, I do not see the dollar becoming worthless just worth less.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:57:42 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
bb is bound by the wrists to the edge of the bed on a bear rug. Tarpy is wearing a magnificent vintage strap-on, mincing around bb.
bb: forget the ky today, I want to really feel it
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Mar 18 20:05:21 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
traderwalt,
OB is the third clueless president on economics. Clinton's administration really kicked this one off. Bush greased it and OB is using it for a socialist agenda. Considering most people are incapable of providing a job for themselves,then jobs are the most important.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 20:06:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"OB is the third clueless president on economics."
I think you missed a couple. Granted I'll give you GW and Carter as not being complete idiots.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:19:50 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Flocks of birds, schools of fish, herds of gazelles...? Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?"
Triumph of the Will
reptillian Wed Mar 18 20:07:15 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[The spread is the same (or better) for the bank]
You think the bank is holding ANY new mortgages? They are dumping them on the Fed. Banks are fleeing martgage debt...
bearly Wed Mar 18 20:08:10 2009 CDT #
nova says:
reptillian says:Today, 9:07:15 PM“"Flocks of birds, schools of fish, herds of gazelles...? Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?"
Triumph of the Will
Michael and Werner both own the that movie
nova Wed Mar 18 20:08:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Triumph of the Will (Triumph des Willens)
Don't need to own it, it's right here;
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=721544746508320698&ei=o57BSd3OFY_-qwK9_rT7Cw&q=Triumph+of+the+Will&hl=en
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 20:25:52 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Yes that was me posting anonymously so the post couldn't be tracked back to me. Wouldn't want to be labeled an anti J-People person. =-X
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 20:31:30 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Broward Horne says:Today, 6:02:21 PM PDT
"Is there anything that makes human beings different from those?"
Cannibalism - Being in the middle of the herd is like being in the middle of the stew pot.
"Bordered In Black" - Niven 1966.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 20:11:50 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Bordered In Black"
Damn good short story. Larry is at least 40yrs ahead of his time.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:17:27 2009 CDT #
nova says:
What banks have exposure here? Have not heard a lot about Italy, Austria etc.. lately
Slovenias economy contracted for the first time in more than 15 years in the fourth quarter of 2008, and is almost certainly heading for quite a deep recession as a construction boom came to an end while demand dropped for exports to other economies in the European Union. Gross domestic product shrank 0.8 percent year on year following a revised 3.9 percent expansion in the previous quarter. More astonishingly, quarter on quarter GDP contracted a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent. Only Estonia and Latvia contracted at a faster rate.
nova Wed Mar 18 20:15:05 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Bailout Apologists
reptillian Wed Mar 18 20:17:00 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Same blog - eurowatch
Oh, Slovenia is a Euro state
It all started yesterday, when Bloomberg came in with a report about Unicredit's eastern exposure, outlining how a decade long expanison, which saw more than $65 billion of acquisitions in operations stretching from Poland to Kazakhstan is now alarming analysts who forecast that loan defaults in eastern Europe, where the bank focused its growth, are set to balloon. Unicredit's stock is down 76 percent in the past 12 months, the second-biggest decline among Italian banks.
and
Oh, and just to cap it all, and a very bad day for Unicredit, HVB Group, their German banking unit, announced this morning that they had a loss of 671 million euros last year because of writedowns on investments and higher provisions
nova Wed Mar 18 20:18:35 2009 CDT #
If a Black Swan falls in the forest... says:
So now that we are buying our own bonds to lower rates any guesses of what the unintended consequences will be?
Lets say I'm China and feel kind of foolish with all those rapidly depreciating dollars. What do I do?
Lets say I'm the EU and see that the rapidly dropping dollar makes me not very competitive.
Lets say I'm an Arab country how should I be paid for my assets?
Any opinions? I'm thinking trade barriers will start to appear in a very stealthy way among all of the above...
If a Black Swan falls in the forest... Wed Mar 18 20:21:51 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Lets say I'm China and feel kind of foolish with all those rapidly depreciating dollars. What do I do?
Lets say I'm the EU and see that the rapidly dropping dollar makes me not very competitive.
Lets say I'm an Arab country how should I be paid for my assets? "
First one to sell wins! Too bad for the bagholders.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:27:37 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Blackhalo says:Today, 6:17:27 PM PDT
"Bordered In Black"
Damn good short story. Larry is at least 40yrs ahead of his time.
Everything that's going to happen has already been written about in sci-fi over the last half century. "Chocolate dollars" most likely (flash mobs) and "chocolate covered manhole covers" in the extreme (full reset) come to mind.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 20:23:43 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
The FED is a joke. 4.5% will do nothing for Calif underwater homeowners nor the vast unemployed now receiving government checks. This is about the fact that nobody will buy GSE debt except the government itself. It will take the market a few days to figure it out but once it does, good bye and good night.
Guest Wed Mar 18 20:24:27 2009 CDT #
graingod says:
Guest, Cal. is terminal ,nothing can repair that mess.
Parent Post
graingod Wed Mar 18 20:26:51 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
OB is the third clueless president on economics."
Should have put in a row. =-O
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 20:27:07 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
FUBO!
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 20:36:31 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Armed Guards at AIG
reptillian Wed Mar 18 20:27:25 2009 CDT #
Max says:
http://eurowatch.blogspot.com/
Max Wed Mar 18 20:28:00 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
BHO should save his sales pitch for the CHinese and Japanese. They might have some concerns. - bearly
They only have one concern and only one - when will we start buying again so they can send their hundreds of millions of rural rubes back to work? It it takes 36 trillion banana bucks so be it - they'll recycle it back - just get it done. Get it done now.
That is the other side of the insanity so many here on this forum fail to grasp. Grasp it - with two fucking hands around the neck. That is half of what is required to 'fix' the problem. We have to do less day trading and more work... you up for that?
[/end rant]
dryfly Wed Mar 18 20:28:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"BHO should save his sales pitch for the Chinese" - bearly
"That is the other side of the insanity so many here on this forum fail to grasp."
That is the next bubble, yet to burst. Depegging the Yaun and breaking the cycle. Far bigger than the housing bubble and with a lot more risk and uncertainty. But, ultimately, unsustainable.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:32:45 2009 CDT #
Max says:
We have to do less day trading and more work... you up for that?
Why work, when you can print print print?
Max Wed Mar 18 20:29:41 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
They only have one concern and only one - when will we start buying again so they can send their hundreds of millions of rural rubes back to work?
BoJ needs to make non-recourse loans directly to the American consumer.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 20:32:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I don't mind having to work for 2 days for a loaf of bread. This is 'Change,' afterall, and that's what we wanted.
Does anyone know the nutritional information on municipal grasses? I'm thinking iceplant can be processed and eaten from the freeway onramps, but I'm lost on harvesting food from a park or golf course.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 20:33:40 2009 CDT #
Hazard says:
" Does anyone know the nutritional information on municipal grasses? "
Don't be silly. Keep the brakes on your car in good shape so you'll be able to beat the crowd in the scramble for new fresh road kill.
Parent Post
Hazard Wed Mar 18 20:42:26 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
They only have one concern and only one - when will we start buying again so they can send their hundreds of millions of rural rubes back to work - dryfly
They don't care what the 'ef happens to their surplus millions as long as those millions don't get uppity. And I do mean uppity in the very worst way.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 20:37:47 2009 CDT #
Bfatz says:
Lower Mortgage Rates as Economic Stimulus
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/lower-mortgage-rates-as-economic.html
----------
You want me to go all in for the good of America? Ok I'll bite, make it 3.5% for thirty years and I am t┘ts up all in.
Bfatz Wed Mar 18 20:41:21 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
03/18/2009 Freedom Watch 6: Alex Jones, Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Peter Schiff, Andy Levy, Mark Skousen, Cody Willard
http://freedomwatchonfox.com/
Michael Wed Mar 18 20:43:56 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Blackhalo says:Today, 6:40:56 PM PDT
I personally do not think globalism is wrong,..
It is all about externalities. When brown clouds from China trigger EPA restrictions on Ventura County economic activities the whole intent gets hazy.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 20:44:38 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"When brown clouds from China trigger EPA restrictions on Ventura County economic activities the whole intent gets hazy."
Part of the problem is that with the devalued Yaun, there is little chance for China to form their own consumer economy. The vast majority can not afford to buy the products they make. They have yet to develop a real "middle class" who would want things like non-toxic food and air, and healthy babies to care for them in a longer, old age. I think this is particularly out of fear that an enriched middle class might want troubling things like an EPA, OSHA, FDA and most troubling of all to career communists, Democracy.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 20:51:25 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
world a powder keg?
Acme Industries provides the fuse.
Matches, that's your problem.
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Mar 18 20:45:49 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
"most troubling of all to career communists, Democracy."
these days career democracy politicians could hardly trouble the career chinese bureaucrats, so called communists
Comrade Elmer Fudd Wed Mar 18 20:54:40 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"these days career democracy politicians could hardly trouble the career chinese bureaucrats, so called communists"
Bureaucrats do not like change and for all their shortcomings, democrats are accustomed to it.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 21:00:10 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
is the government subsidiary that benefits an industry overloaded with excessive supply an economic stimulus?
haha
sorry CR
haha
8-)
Comrade De Chaos Wed Mar 18 20:57:29 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: 2007 Data: Record Number of Babies Born in U.S.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/2007-data-record-number-of-babies-born.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to http://realize.org/cr then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.
--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
CRbot Wed Mar 18 20:57:48 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
what we ve got to do is to switch ideas with chinese, we should subsidize production efficiency and they should subsidize consumption, otherwise most of the both stimuli will be wasteful.
Comrade De Chaos Wed Mar 18 21:00:06 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Loan Brokers are gone.The Banks no longer need a legal buffer because they are no longer encouraging mortgage fraud.It is all in house and GSE.And not much is being done with hard money because prices are falling so fast.A 65% CLTV might look good until you see a yoy fall of 28% in the prior year and it appears to be accelerating this year.A 12%-15% return is nice if the borrower pays it...
Tom Stone Wed Mar 18 21:00:32 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Kleptocracy v. Kleptocracy Smack Down on CNBC! Larry Kudlow referees as as Yuan "the upstart" Chicomm takes on the aging Bucky "the beleaguered" Bureaucracy for global supremacy in a misguided quest for respect and dubious standing in a crumbling world economy. Maria and Erin will carry the round cards.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 21:03:16 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
BoJ needs to make non-recourse loans directly to the American consumer.
You mean as opposed to passing through our agency & treasury 'middlemen first'? The only gov'ts serving their people more poorly than the US gov't are the Asian merchantilists. And those folks understand 'killing fields' 'cultural revolutions' and 'reeducation camps'...
dryfly Wed Mar 18 21:10:37 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
My bet is that the Saudis sell first.
A good bet IMHO.
dryfly Wed Mar 18 21:14:09 2009 CDT #
graingod says:
saudis cant sell, need more suvs on the road, look at this from their pov. good nite, thxs all
Parent Post
graingod Wed Mar 18 21:27:50 2009 CDT #
Mark says:
"The FED is a joke. 4.5% will do nothing for Calif underwater homeowners nor the vast unemployed now receiving government checks. This is about the fact that nobody will buy GSE debt except the government itself. It will take the market a few days to figure it out but once it does, good bye and good night."
Thank god for that. There are many of us out here that would contemplate armed insurrection if our government started taking on huge new debt in our names, just to pay the mortgages of people in CA who have no job or income any more, so they can stay in houses in sunny CA while we here in flyoverland continue to labor at lower salaries to keep paying rent or mortgages on houses that aren't worth a fraction of those ...
Your sense of ENTITLEMENT is glaring, sir. We working taxpayers (and our children) are not your serfs, existing to continue laboring in the fields while you idle in your Manor House ...
Mark Wed Mar 18 21:53:17 2009 CDT #
BillS says:
A serious question for all of you well educated, intelligent folks who follow these things.
If we as a nation have spent trillions in stimulus, why would it not make more sense for the Treasury to be selling 30 year bonds at 3.5% in order to lock in a low interest rate to finance Tarp money etc which is being lent out at 6% or higher?
I understand the desire for lower mortgage rates, but mortgage rates in the range of 6% are reasonable by any historic standard, and adding another trillion of debt, when we do not have the money, which will be repaid with deflated dollars as inflation goes into high gear as a result of the printing presses running overtime, seems to be foolish economic policy.
If I am not understanding something here, please let me know.
BillS Thu Mar 19 06:52:43 2009 CDT #
END