Comments for More on Housing Bottoms
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/417928367570886694
CRbot Wed Mar 18 15:01:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
But would you agree that prices stabilize falling more slowly instead of continuing in free-fall?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 15:02:04 2009 CDT #
Max says:
So what's the lag time before wages are affected? Devaluing debt through inflation only works if wages increase. Also, by buying agencies, isn't the Fed simply increasing credit, not money supply? The money was spent when the mortgages were made, no? It's been said many times around here: increasing credit does nothing when no one wants to borrow.
Max Wed Mar 18 15:02:56 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
There's still the risk that GDP might continue falling, in which case residential investment as a % of GDP can "bottom" and yet residential investment (employment, etc.) could still be falling. In such a depressionary scenario, housing starts and sales might continue falling off of the bubble-era plateau, and might not necessarily return to postwar levels for some time.
Wisdom Speaker Wed Mar 18 15:06:49 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
CR
Consider the builder's perspective. Fewest new home starts should happen in Fall/Winter because of the poor weather. So you're early, but new starts bottom is probably on the horizon.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 15:07:15 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
CR - good post as were your others on the topic - thanks.
Guest Wed Mar 18 15:09:50 2009 CDT #
HarshRealty says:
As I mentioned yesterday...
In the last boom cycle in Hawaii, sales bottomed in 1995. Prices didn't bottom until 2001, 6 years later.
HarshRealty Wed Mar 18 15:10:14 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Ok, let's take the dollar lower (again) and see if that helps (this time):
The dollar fell sharply against the euro and the yen and gold prices advanced by more than $23 an ounce, pushing above $940. Crude-oil futures prices moved higher in late afternoon trading on the prospect of economic improvement as a result of the Fed's move, nudging above $49. Crude had settled lower in regular floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
=-X
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 15:17:07 2009 CDT #
Not Irving Fisher! says:
I mentioned the other day... Only 6 SFRs sold in my OC beach community last month. As of today there are over 500 on the market. Prices are going to come down hard.
The funny thing is everyone I talk to still says prices can't drop further.
Not Irving Fisher! Wed Mar 18 15:17:08 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Did Shiller produce a 100-year graph of inflation-adjusted house prices? I thought that he had. Or is it that the Case-Shiller numbers are computed differently?
burnside Wed Mar 18 15:18:17 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
CR,
Can you fix that typo on the blog from yesterday??
Re: It doesn't works that way!
Should read, work, not works and that is driving me crazy!! *DONT_KNOW*
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 15:18:36 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"So what's the lag time before wages are affected? Devaluing debt through inflation only works if wages increase."
At the point when workers can make more money by changing jobs. When employers have to offer more just to get new workers.
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 15:20:25 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
We can be SURE that media (CNBC, I see you) will confound these two bottoms completely. Hell, they are already calling 'bottom'. For them to admit that maybe 4-5 years of price declines are ahead would be unthinkable, since everything MUST happen within the walls of the next 4 quarters. (or the 3rd half)
Lots of people who don't by foreclosed homes or their equivalent neighbors at even lower prices than today, will be catching falling knives that lead to yet more foreclosures.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 15:22:33 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
Will someone explain why this translates into an equities rally? Market anticipating price inflation in outputs to exceed inflation of inputs, thus increasing profitability?
Confused.
RockyR Wed Mar 18 15:23:34 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Will someone explain why this translates into an equities rally?"
In and inflationary environment, earnings go up. You get inflationary growth and P/E. Companies operating with debt, get to pay that off with tomorrows, less valuable dollars.
Of course rates tend to go through the roof, as lenders will not lend, except in the event of a higher than inflation return.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 15:32:37 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Take a look at his chart and note that the Residential Investment as a % of GDP bottomed around 1/1/1991 and the Case/Shiller home price index didn't bottom until 11/3/1997. The S&P 500 went from $343.05 on 1/1/1991 to $927.51 on 11/3/1997, up 107%. While housing went down an additional 6.66% in the same period.
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 17:10:59 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Jesse:
SP Futures Hourly Chart at the Close
CRbot Wed Mar 18 15:25:01 2009 CDT #
JP says:
RockyR: More money chasing the same goods. That drives all prices up.
At least, that what the market is thinking.
JP Wed Mar 18 15:26:25 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"RockyR: More money chasing the same goods. That drives all prices up.
At least, that what the market is thinking."
Doesn't improve profitability unless you get really, really good at forecasting demand far into the future and really, really inefficient at managing inventory levels at the same time ;-)
Weeee!
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Mar 18 15:28:02 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Rocky, I think the short-term view is it keeps certain kinds of borrowing cheap.
burnside Wed Mar 18 15:26:53 2009 CDT #
JP says:
Oh, and equities are one of the "goods", if that wasn't clear.
JP Wed Mar 18 15:27:06 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
Will someone explain why this translates into an equities rally?
You are assuming that there is a stock 'market'. The big guys make the prices to be whatever they seek on market news. While they probably can't control the trend lines, they certainly can make a rally happen on any given day.
The fallacy that people are rational and therefore the market is reflecting rational views is wrong on both counts.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 15:28:01 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"You are assuming that there is a stock 'market'. "
Old beliefs die hard.
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Mar 18 15:29:49 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Where do we stack the corpses of the bond shorts?
Yancey Ward Wed Mar 18 15:28:58 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Rocky, I think the short-term view is it keeps certain kinds of borrowing cheap."
Great time to buy a house! ...
RockyR Wed Mar 18 15:29:28 2009 CDT #
ac says:
In the "you don't get something for nothing" category:
According to the futures data I'm looking at, the S&P 500 is up about 20% from its recent low. Oil is up about 50% from its recent low.
ac Wed Mar 18 15:31:03 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
What part are some of you not understanding? "Last time" is no longer relevant. We are in uncharted territory. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. I know crooks want you to believe that and dopes want to believe it, but that doesn't make it fact.
Morocco Bama Wed Mar 18 15:31:48 2009 CDT #
Mike says:
It is a great time to refi a house, that is if your not upside down on it. I wonder how freaking lower they can go? :-$
Mike Wed Mar 18 15:32:47 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Will someone explain why this translates into an equities rally?
Price equities in terms of something real like oil - suddenly it doesn't look so much like a rally.
This is currency devalue and debasement of financial assets more generally.
Calling it a "rally" requires a very narrow perspective.
ac Wed Mar 18 15:33:20 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Madoff’s Prison Twitter Page
CRbot Wed Mar 18 15:33:39 2009 CDT #
Galax says:
CR - I think alot of people understand this. The problem though is they dont like it because it signals we are transitioning from a period of steep price decline to gentle price decline.
Galax Wed Mar 18 15:34:14 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Galax,
Rate of price decline is determined by inventory. New starts only have an impact in terms of how they affect inventory
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 15:40:21 2009 CDT #
sweetlady alabama says:
I guess it's time to buy FAS and go long the banks. I sure could use a new Versace handbag.
sweetlady alabama Wed Mar 18 15:35:22 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
glod fringe stuff. Existing debt structure is unsupportable.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schoon/2009/0318.html
Guest Wed Mar 18 15:35:51 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
It's a little premature to be talking about a bottom in any of the bubble_impacted_assets.
Don't be a Cramer.
Darth Paulson Wed Mar 18 15:37:36 2009 CDT #
ac says:
It is a great time to refi a house, that is if your not upside down on it. I wonder how freaking lower they can go?
Keep in mind though - the rates on 10 year treasuries are still significantly higher than their lows last year. It will be interesting to see if spreads compress enough to send mortgage rates to new lows even if t-note rates stay above them.
ac Wed Mar 18 15:37:51 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Galax
Rate of price decline is linked to inventory. New starts only have an impact in terms of what they do to the inventory
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Mar 18 15:38:04 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
CR -- I heard an interesting anecdote yesterday, which to me suggests that housing starts will fall considerably further.
In order to secure financing for a new residential construction, banks are now requiring 40-60% downpayments for jumbo loans. To purchase an existing home takes 20-25% down, but banks are requiring an additional risk premium to offset the risk of cost overruns, builder bankruptcies, and the chance of an uncompleted home becoming an "asset" for new construction.
I'm just curious whether you've taken that into consideration. Personally, I suspect that February was a blip, not a trend.
Gavshire Hathaway Wed Mar 18 15:38:35 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
It's a little premature to be talking about a bottom in any of the bubble_impacted_assets.
Don't be a Cramer.
Darth Paulson Wed Mar 18 15:39:18 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Pavel, ac, nova, YTL:
Just read through the earlier day threads, esp in regard to work, Zimbabwean suffering and morality.
Had a conversation with a teen two weeks ago and he's already a disillusioned conservative. Nothing wrong with the political philosophy per se, but what went wrong?
Response was that push to ultimately deregulate the financial markets was assuming that we had not only made major technological changes, but also moral advancements and would be able to actually master our own baser desires. I used to listen to Limbaugh and recall conversations with co-worker about removal of Glass-Stiegal; I opposed on that ground. so the crux comes to morality and some virtue...
Also spoke with church pastor other day and I'm going to be doing a class for the adults on what's really come about and what it'll ultimately entail. And start a conversation about how we respond to protect our individual communities.
homedad43 Wed Mar 18 15:39:49 2009 CDT #
Deflationary Jane says:
I was going to say - if this is the bottom for prices, then I'm never buying, period. It's still far cheaper to rent then buy in any area reasonably close to work and where I won't have my house set on fire (ie, the Oak park fire bombing of tenants).
I have another 25 years of employment and my goal is to pay off the place before I retire. I also want money in the bank because I now know that I can't depend on a UCRP retirement package (the UCRP plans are looking really bad, possibly worse then CalPers for us gen Xers).
Deflationary Jane Wed Mar 18 15:41:19 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
"Where do we stack the corpses of the bond shorts?"
---------------------------------------------
Stick em in back, next to the greedy, overleveraged, late-to-the-party short financials crowd.
But you'd better douse them with gas and burn them -- we wouldn't want those zombies to rise from the dead.
Gavshire Hathaway Wed Mar 18 15:41:22 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
cr writes: However some lower priced areas might be much closer to the bottom.
## Exactly! All markets are, in effect, local. Just like politics and politicians. And, similarly, dumb as well.
volker the viking Wed Mar 18 15:43:45 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
CR,
A well reasoned post. I agree with the separate bottom theory.
Apparently, so does the fed. Hence the panic about low inflation. If home owers have to actually pay back the loans through savings rather than inflation, walkaways will literally "break" the banks.
How did the fed (mis)manage things so badly?
Angry Saver Wed Mar 18 15:44:34 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
jim portland writes: We can be SURE that media (CNBC, I see you) will confound these two bottoms completely. Hell, they are already calling 'bottom'. For them to admit that maybe 4-5 years of price declines are ahead would be unthinkable, since everything MUST happen within the walls of the next 4 quarters.
## Uh, maybe four hours ;-/
volker the viking Wed Mar 18 15:45:44 2009 CDT #
A_XL_Rod says:
The coming new world basket currency:
http://www.reuters.com/article/Funds09/idUSTRE52H2CY20090318?pageNumber=1
A_XL_Rod Wed Mar 18 15:46:16 2009 CDT #
MinniRenter says:
Another point about starts that I have not heard anyone mention is the distressed land/development buyer. If you can buy an unfinished development or piece of raw land at a low basis, then you will build some houses to monetize your investment. Obviously some will fail at this approach and some will succeed, but what did you expect these people to do with the assets they were buying? Is this good or bad? Well it does employ people (good), but it does increase the stock of homes (bad). The important point is that this is the only way to monetize these assets. Every distressed sale of undeveloped land is bad for housing prices.
MinniRenter Wed Mar 18 15:48:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Woo-hoo go bulls!!!! :-$
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 15:49:13 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
A_XL_Rod, the guy thinks that the Yuan is a valid reserve currency...in my book that counts as lunacy, although from his perspective (presumably south asian), maybe that's a win for him.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Mar 18 15:50:13 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Bernanke signed America's death warrant in response to Ron Paul's bill to audit the Federal Reserve. The federal Reserve Transparency Act, bill H.R. 1207, has 28 cosponsors and growing.
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=13149
Michael Wed Mar 18 15:52:25 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
111th CONGRESS
1st Session
H.R. 1207
To amend title 31, United States Code, to reform the manner in which the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is audited by the Comptroller General of the United States and the manner in which such audits are reported, and for other purposes.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
February 26, 2009
Mr. Paul (for himself, Mr. Kagen, Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Bartlett, Mr. Jones, Mr. Rehberg, Mr. Posey, Mr. Broun of Georgia, Mr. Poe of Texas, Mr. Burton of Indiana, Mr. Abercrombie, and Ms. Woolsey) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Financial Services
A BILL
To amend title 31, United States Code, to reform the manner in which the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is audited by the Comptroller General of the United States and the manner in which such audits are reported, and for other purposes.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. Short title.
This Act may be cited as the “Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009”.
SEC. 2. Audit reform and transparency for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
(a) In general.—Subsection (b) of section 714 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by striking all after “shall audit an agency” and inserting a period.
(b) Audit.—Section 714 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end the following new subsection:
“(e) Audit and report of the Federal Reserve System.—
“(1) In general.—The audit of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal reserve banks under subsection (b) shall be completed before the end of 2010.
“(2) Report.—
“(A) Required.—A report on the audit referred to in paragraph (1) shall be submitted by the Comptroller General to the Congress before the end of the 90-day period beginning on the date on which such audit is completed and made available to the Speaker of the House, the majority and minority leaders of the House of Representatives, the majority and minority leaders of the Senate, the Chairman and Ranking Member of the committee and each subcommittee of jurisdiction in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and any other Member of Congress who requests it.
“(B) Contents.—The report under subparagraph (A) shall include a detailed description of the findings and conclusion of the Comptroller General with respect to the audit that is the subject of the report, together with such recommendations for legislative or administrative action as the Comptroller General may determine to be appropriate.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 15:56:52 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Please complete this petition urging your Congressman to cosponsor and a seek roll-call vote on Ron Paul’s Audit the Fed Bill -- the first step toward ENDING THE FEDERAL RESERVE once and for all!
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 16:01:33 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Link to Petition;
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/campaigns/auditthefed.php?projid=16
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 16:05:36 2009 CDT #
z says:
dood, the ron paul internet troll died last summer. please stop it.
Parent Post
z Wed Mar 18 16:13:28 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
So why are you against the bill and petition?
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=13149
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/campaigns/auditthefed.php?projid=16
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 16:19:37 2009 CDT #
Mike says:
Thanks ac. Your right. I hope they come down a little bit then.. ;)
Mike Wed Mar 18 15:52:29 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
A XL Rod:
Read the article and I see no way that China wants to have the reserve currency mantle. They know too well what they've done and they don't want to have that happen to them.
Basket? Mebbe, mebbe.
Long wicker.
homedad43 Wed Mar 18 15:52:33 2009 CDT #
Tikal says:
Morrac Obama said..."Last time" is no longer relevant. We are in uncharted territory."
Translation - its different this time!!!
Tikal Wed Mar 18 15:52:46 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Something bad is happening.
The US$ just fell 3% almost instantly.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w&w=30&t=f&a=0
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 15:53:56 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT- from earlier today
Broward Horne,
Here's another interesting graph from dshort:
http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend-alt-cpi
You can use either the "official" CPI or the
Shadowstats index, and as it turns out, the official CPI actually shows dual bubbles in 2000 and 2004-7 versus the inflation regression trend, while the ShadowStats doesn't. I suspect that there's something significant there, and it's causally linked to the graph we were discussing the other day:
http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 16:23:36 2009 CDT #
anotherajh says:
Broward Horne says:
“Something bad is happening.
The US$ just fell 3% almost instantly.
YIKES!!!
Parent Post
anotherajh Wed Mar 18 17:08:22 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
test
Michael Wed Mar 18 15:54:23 2009 CDT #
nova says:
HomeDad,
Good idea. it is time to build them community ties.
nova Wed Mar 18 15:55:12 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Pavel, ac, nova, YTL:
Just read through the earlier day threads, esp in regard to work, Zimbabwean suffering and morality.
Had a conversation with a teen two weeks ago and he's already a disillusioned conservative. Nothing wrong with the political philosophy per se, but what went wrong?
Response was that push to ultimately deregulate the financial markets was assuming that we had not only made major technological changes, but also moral advancements and would be able to actually master our own baser desires. I used to listen to Limbaugh and recall conversations with co-worker about removal of Glass-Stiegal; I opposed on that ground. so the crux comes to morality and some virtue...
Also spoke with church pastor other day and I'm going to be doing a class for the adults on what's really come about and what it'll ultimately entail. And start a conversation about how we respond to protect our individual communities.
Have you read "The Limits of Power" by any chance? I've mentioned it before: It's probably the most reasoned and insightful book I read last year (I read a lot of books), and I find it especially interesting and relevant in its claim that what has passed for "conservatism" since the 1970s is really a sham.
Again, I think both political parties/ideologies exist to promote monopolies to fund political campaigns. In the case of the left they are public; in the case of the right they are private.
Neither serves the interest of the US citizen in my view.
Poorly thought out wars and unrestrained industrial/financial behemoths do nothing to make our lives better.
Likewise, emulating failed socialist/communist policies do nothing to make our lives better.
They do a lot to make the lives of special interests better at our expense, however.
ac Wed Mar 18 15:56:14 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
re: basket of currency
It's an attempt to do something Jesuslike, remember the Sermon on the Mount when all the loaves and fishes miraculously appeared...something like that only with money. snark meter off
volker the viking Wed Mar 18 15:56:42 2009 CDT #
rich says:
I'm stunned by the inanity of the comments about the Fed's actions today.
The Fed has just given every large holder of long Treasuries in the world license to sell at an attractive price without driving down the values of their remaining T-bonds. The Fed has become the buyer of only resort for long T-bonds. The deterrent that had been explained repeatedly for China, especially,to sell is now gone. So, you have to believe that China was planning to sell anyway, and the Fed gave them a nice gift. Yes, the Fed will eventually buy most of the bonds they own. That's what the market thinks, anyway.
Every inflation-sensitive position I hold was up big today, and the Fed turned what had been a dismal day for me into a big winner, in spite of TBT. Thank you, Ben!
rich Wed Mar 18 15:56:53 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
for those who follow Rich Hartman (Miss America) who publishes at Roubini's RGEmonitor - a new and excellent post just went up
http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/256056/evaporflation
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 15:56:55 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Michael,
Some of your posts are coming through with words missing. I think your messages are being censored. Do you own an Apple PC?
nova Wed Mar 18 15:57:09 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I do think I'm being censored by the PTB, so I have to repeat things from time to time.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 16:04:26 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Stupid Microsoft product.
Parent Post
Michael Wed Mar 18 16:22:24 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
ac:
thanks for the recommendation.
Have to stop by the bookstore while one of the kids has a practice adn I'll get it. Finished the Jackson bio.
have to run. hang in there and take care...
homedad43 Wed Mar 18 15:58:55 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Have you read "The Limits of Power" by any chance? I've mentioned it before: It's probably the most reasoned and insightful book I read last year (I read a lot of books), and I find it especially interesting and relevant in its claim that what has passed for "conservatism" since the 1970s is really a sham.
I will put it on my Amazon wish list. That sounds good - but it is where books go to die.
nova Wed Mar 18 15:59:16 2009 CDT #
z says:
Party on!
The kids in grade school can pay for the bonuses and earmarks.
z Wed Mar 18 15:59:17 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"I have another 25 years of employment and my goal is to pay off the place before I retire. I also want money in the bank because I now know that I can't depend on a UCRP retirement package (the UCRP plans are looking really bad, possibly worse then CalPers for us gen Xers)."
25 more years with the YouCee system? My condolences. I'm a boomer, been with the system 3 years, and doubt I could stand another ten.
My first boss retired a couple of years ago with 30 years in UC; didn't care for her much, but UC had been hard on her, and am glad she'll get a few "fat" years on retirement before the screws begin to tighten.
My house is paid off, but if the hyperinflation crowd is correct you'll end up paying off your house for pennies on the adjusted dollar, like the people who sailed through the 80s on mortgages taken out in the 60s and early 70s.
Bob Dobbs Wed Mar 18 16:02:33 2009 CDT #
ecoshift says:
How did the fed (mis)manage things so badly?
Reminds me of a story.
When I was a young man on one of my first construction jobs one of my co-workers who had difficulty holding down a job asked to borrow my car for a quick trip to the union hall to look for work.
Three days later I still didn't have my car back. After some diligence on my part I found him across the bay at his sister's house. Still no car. He blew it up (okay it sucked a valve) on the bay bridge.
He suggested that I stop looking at him with such cold hard eyes. I said: WTF, you blew up my car and you didn't even call me. What do you expect?
He said: Hey, you knew I was a junkie when you loaned me the car.
Kinda like financial markets, hedge funds and day traders complaining about fed policy.
(BTW: His cousin rebuilt the engine. I got the car back about 6 weeks later. I'll never forget.)
ecoshift Wed Mar 18 16:03:16 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
where's elvis:
Habitat for Humanity Adds Demolition to Its Mission
As part of an agreement with the city, and with at least $500,000 from the state and federal governments, the Habitat volunteers and paid workers plan to deconstruct and demolish two vacant, dilapidated houses here a week, every week, over the next two years. As for creating homes, they will build or refurbish eight houses this year.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 16:04:34 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
My bud at the local Habitat chapter just went househunting down in Watsonville (subprime hell-hole) for an REO; they're looking at a good one for $120K (one they can fix up, anyway) with a big enough lot (and zoning) for an oversized inlaw unit. They're thinking duplex conversion.
He says this is just something to keep busy with while bigger projects go through all the legal hoops. But I'm thinking this is the wave of the future.
Parent Post
Bob Dobbs Wed Mar 18 16:11:02 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
Something bad is happening.
The US$ just fell 3% almost instantly.
Nothing happening there. The chart pen just got stuck on some sticky ink. Just move along.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 16:04:40 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Where do we stack the corpses of the bond shorts?"
Judging by today's action & commentary...
next to the corpses of the bond longs.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:06:25 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
CR,
You can do better. Replay the second graph except this time use C-S x 1.25 and negatively offset by 6 months.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 16:06:33 2009 CDT #
cold realities of competition says:
Re: BTW: His cousin rebuilt the engine. I got the car back about 6 weeks later.
So maybe Geithner's got a cousin?
cold realities of competition Wed Mar 18 16:09:27 2009 CDT #
ecoshift says:
So maybe Geithner's got a cousin?
Maybe he is a cousin.
Parent Post
ecoshift Thu Mar 19 00:59:24 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Bernanke's Grand Experiment Continues
CRbot Wed Mar 18 16:09:59 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Great post!
We're covering this as well on COMMON CENTS...
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 16:11:00 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"The chart pen just got stuck on some sticky ink"
I don't trade currencies so I don't pay close attention but I surely do not remember a 3% drop within forty-five minutes. What the heck did Obama or Bernanke say this time?
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:11:24 2009 CDT #
steelhead says:
Slightly OT but I just received notification from Chase that "in response to market conditions and to maintain profitability on your account" the bank is increasing the applicable interest rate by 3% effective May 1st. This just gives me more incentive to pay off my balance sooner rather than later. :(
steelhead Wed Mar 18 16:13:44 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
What the heck did Obama or Bernanke say this time?
Something about buying $700B in MBS and $300B in long bonds...
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 16:17:00 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Have you read "The Limits of Power" by any chance? I've mentioned it before: It's probably the most reasoned and insightful book I read last year (I read a lot of books), and I find it especially interesting and relevant in its claim that what has passed for "conservatism" since the 1970s is really a sham.
I will put it on my Amazon wish list. That sounds good - but it is where books go to die.
FWIW, I read it before the financial crisis struck in full force. The book warns of an oncoming "crisis of profligacy" which now might seem more anachronistic or prescient depending on how you view it (and whether you're sick of hearing about it).
ac Wed Mar 18 16:18:57 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Something about buying $700B in MBS and $300B in long bonds..."
Yes, sorry, missed that, just read it. Wow, that's a bad sign. The market is raising rates faster than they can print? Oh, ho ho ho. Wow. The Feds may actually be shutting the economy down faster instead of rescuing it. Amazing to watch it happening.
This whole thing really sucks.
Personally, I've been twisting in limbo with contract jobs for five years and I'm out of patience with this bullshit.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:23:02 2009 CDT #
fried says:
Judge Rules Bonus Names Can Be Made Public....BAC loses, Cuomo Wins..NYTimes
| "4:55 p.m. A New York state judge ruled Wednesday afternoon that New York’s attorney general could disclose the names of Merrill Lynch executives who received 2008 bonuses as part of his investigation of the firm.
“The record does not support the intervenors’ claim that the employee compensation information is a trade secret,” Justice Bernard J. Fried of New York State Supreme Court wrote, referring to Merrill and its corporate parent, Bank of America."
fried Wed Mar 18 16:23:59 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
Michael, are you using a wireless mouse? If so you might want to take your tinfoil coliander off when typing. I think it causes electrical transmission issues. That might be what's causing the garbled words in your replies.
If you are using a wired mouse then make sure you don't have any kinks in the wire. It can cause a bottle-neck with the electrons and cause loss of some data.
poic.v20 Wed Mar 18 16:25:57 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Steelhead, they hit me with that last month...I went up to supervisor level and acknowledged her claim that she couldnt do anything, she asked me if I wanted to close and then I jumped all over her with how that hurts your fico, then gave her lesson on credit scoring-credit etc...paid it off...
cd Wed Mar 18 16:27:11 2009 CDT #
z says:
Michael, can the Ron Paul troll. It was not funny then, it's not funny now.
He lost. Badly. Get over it.
z Wed Mar 18 16:27:12 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Cinco - from a TA standpoint, the double top is a strong indicator that the Feds are working within a framework with hard limits. Imagine a cat's cradle. You can re-arrange it in different ways but ultimately, there's only so much string.
Greenspan re-tweaked the thing during the Dot Com crash and got a slightly more efficient configuration, but really it only all held together with the massive RE and financial fraud.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 18 16:28:34 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Guest Post: Charlotte Observer pitches softball, Ken Lewis hits homer
CRbot Wed Mar 18 16:28:38 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
z: Ron Paul was the only guy running for president that said that the US was bankrupt, and everyone thought he was crazy. Doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
briwerk Wed Mar 18 16:29:57 2009 CDT #
giacutter says:
Ron Paul was right about a lot of things. Unfortunately he has very limited gravitas and charisma.
The Republican Party apparatus holds him in very low regard.
Result...unelectable as President.
giacutter Wed Mar 18 16:34:01 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
So explain GWB please ;)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 16:35:55 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Lower Mortgage Rates as Economic Stimulus
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/lower-mortgage-rates-as-economic.html ( 2 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to http://realize.org/cr then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.
--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
CRbot Wed Mar 18 16:37:51 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
All of this came at the expense of U.S. worker!!! The U.S. worker was the sacrificial lamb as the world developed into a very competitive force challenging the product-based capitalist economy of the United States. Corporatists, such as Bill Gates, and others, sought for the Congress to allow foreign workers to be given special status in order to further subvert wages by hiring them instead of domestic professional workers further eroding wages and our standard-of-living.
http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com/2009/03/what-type-of-country-does-president.html
Guest Wed Mar 18 16:48:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
It doesn't seem like the two bottoms will be as far apart as in the past. For starters the two peaks were almost 3 years apart in 1987 and this time they're months apart.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 17:15:23 2009 CDT #
ppk says:
i thought Ron Paul was a nut. But i'd say he's honest. If he's still around in 2012, i'd consider votin for him.
ppk Wed Mar 18 18:53:41 2009 CDT #
END