Comments for Credit Card Defaults at 20 Year-High
Nemo says:
Yeah but that's only a mark-to-market basis.
Nemo Mon Mar 16 19:10:58 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Yeah but that's only a mark-to-market basis."
Hahahaha!!!
Parent Post
RockyR Mon Mar 16 19:19:29 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/418179682519921844
CRbot Mon Mar 16 19:11:02 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
nonsense.. there are no defaults in our brave new mark to model world. :-P
Lucifer Mon Mar 16 19:14:08 2009 CDT #
ponziMCC says:
=-O
ponziMCC Mon Mar 16 19:14:18 2009 CDT #
Bobe says:
CCBS meltdown.
Bobe Mon Mar 16 19:15:19 2009 CDT #
Tom in AZ says:
Poor Amex, pissing off the people who do pay them, and drowning in the charge offs of those that can't pay.
Tom in AZ Mon Mar 16 19:16:48 2009 CDT #
The Notorious A.I.G. says:
But the markets are up! Ben said the recession would be over by the end this year. Happy times are here again! i mean, really, what are a few hundred thousand foreclosures and CC defaults between friends?
The Notorious A.I.G. Mon Mar 16 19:17:24 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
no worries, the ABS are still rated AAA for TALF purposes. 8-)
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 19:18:26 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
So are we really expected to believe that the average Chase receivable has 200-300bps less in charge offs than the rest of the industry?
I look forward to hearing Jamie Dimon's BS on that....
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 19:18:46 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
“So are we really expected to believe that the average Chase receivable has 200-300bps less in charge offs than the rest of the industry?
I look forward to hearing Jamie Dimon's BS on that
Especially given that JPM had not been known for industry-best credit card loss rates
Parent Post
MrM Mon Mar 16 19:26:52 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
What SCHEME Is AIG?
CRbot Mon Mar 16 19:20:37 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
I'm wondering how this news feeds back into housing?
How many people have been putting their mortgage payments on their credit cards since the HELOC/ATM window closed?
sm_landlord Mon Mar 16 19:21:03 2009 CDT #
Lou Polur says:
Absolutely my conclusion and I believe retail sales increased (by 5%) because mortgages weren't paid but spent shopping instead.
Parent Post
Lou Polur Tue Mar 17 05:46:13 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
I smell.. MORE BAILOUTS !!!
Splat Mon Mar 16 19:22:21 2009 CDT #
Zoi says:
"I smell.. MORE BAILOUTS !!!"
I should max out my credit cards, so I can finally take advantage of one of these bailouts.
Parent Post
Zoi Mon Mar 16 20:39:52 2009 CDT #
Credit enema is coming says:
Regulator Before Banks Collapsed, They Pleaded With Feds To Let Them Fudge Their Books . Congress meeting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azlre3VobvA
Credit enema is coming Mon Mar 16 19:23:14 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
JPMorgan is a strong and well capitalized bank that does not foresee having to raise any material amounts of capital
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 19:24:47 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Citigroup's default rate soared to 9.33 percent in February, from 6.95 percent a month earlier
I wonder if before he claimed Citi would be profitable in Q1, Pandit remembered that defaults rates should enter P&L with the negative sign.
Then again, Bernanke said unambiguously that all the banks will pass the stress test, so who actually cares about signs anymore?
MrM Mon Mar 16 19:24:48 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Isn't over 5% bad? So 8% is another way of saying "we have severe problems with our biz?"
nova Mon Mar 16 19:24:49 2009 CDT #
MW says:
We are sitting atop a tinder box.......and AIG is the match.
Be careful.......very careful.
MW Mon Mar 16 19:24:56 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"We are sitting atop a tinder box.......and AIG is the match.
Be careful.......very careful."
Please elaborate.
Parent Post
RockyR Mon Mar 16 19:29:36 2009 CDT #
Bartman says:
There is no property/casualty etc insurance policy that those crooks have that can't be written by a legitimate company, eg. Chubb, Liberty, ACE, Travelers, Zurich. US Govt. should take that part into run-off. This is the "hospice" stage for all dying insurance companies. The "casino" part of their business is declared illegal gambling debts. GS and JPM and a bunch of European bank high-rollers go BK, and the world is a better place.
Parent Post
Bartman Mon Mar 16 20:28:13 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Perhaps it's time for merchants to add 5% to card purchases . . . or discount for cash.
sportsfan Mon Mar 16 19:25:08 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Perhaps it's time for merchants to add 5% to card purchases . . . or discount for cash. - sportsfan
Funny you should mention that - saw a sign today:
Diesel Cash $1.91
Diesel CC $1.97
That was in Des Moines
Six cent a gallon premium... only about three percent... but still pretty significant. Biggest spread I've seen since interest rates went below 10%... YEARS ago.
Parent Post
dryfly Mon Mar 16 22:22:20 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
Anonymous;
"So are we really expected to believe that the average Chase receivable has 200-300bps less in charge offs than the rest of the industry?"
Yes. Different issuers, different criteria. I would be surprised if there were *not* a difference between charge-off rates between issuers.
sm_landlord Mon Mar 16 19:25:10 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
My AIG comment from the last thread:
All wall street bonus guarantees have conditions. I'd bet the house that ALL the AIG bonus guarantees were predicated on the employees NOT being terminated for cause.
If $160 billion in losses is NOT a proper CAUSE for termination I don't know what is.
This is a shakedown. A looting. I say put the AIG employees on Riker's Island for a night (general pop). See if that changes their attitudes.
Angry Saver Mon Mar 16 19:28:39 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“Yeah but that's only a mark-to-market basis."
Haha... we've so moved on from that kind of First World nonsense.
ac Mon Mar 16 19:30:39 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Can I use mark to "mark to make believe" tax deductions?
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 16 19:37:22 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I f you are Geithner
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 04:57:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Before the Paulsons of the world reduced the standards for granting mortgages based upon the applicant's mastery of Mirror Fogging, credit cards were provided to people who didn't even exist. CC companies are getting what they deserve, and I don't mean bailed-out.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 19:39:49 2009 CDT #
S says:
tinderbox:
TIC data + China demands = confidence fading
Fed backing everything in sight + FDIC deposit "fund" = recipe for disaster
Treasury market on brink with another few years of forcefeeding
Fed forced to montize to take edge off = inflation spirng loaded
House prices another 20% downside at least
Printing creates upward rate pressure steepening curve - exacerbating house price pressure
pent up inflation NOT passed through to wages
idle capacity adds to deflationary expectations and unemployment in things you want
Needs already getting more expensive - see Euro M/M CPI today +0.4% (y/y comp distorted by energy)
Bottom line
Bernanke and the Fed have lost control - they have so mahny balls in the air the only question is which one goes first...
S Mon Mar 16 19:40:08 2009 CDT #
KR says:
sportsfan says:
Today, 8:25:08 PM
“Perhaps it's time for merchants to add 5% to card purchases . . . or discount for cash."
Minor detail, but tossing it in anyway: card hold defaults refers to the card issuer liability. Credit card 'charge backs' are a different issue, normally very low ( for brick and mortar establishments at least).
\t
KR Mon Mar 16 19:40:56 2009 CDT #
kibido says:
"Before the Paulsons of the world ..." was my comment.
kibido Mon Mar 16 19:41:02 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
The Jim Rogers video from the last thread is interesting.
He suggests that it's time to take up farming and mining.
In Asia.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.09/rogers.html
sm_landlord Mon Mar 16 19:41:22 2009 CDT #
Let\'s climb aboard the Wayback Machine! says:
Uh, that site has a load of Truther and Illuminati crap on it as well. Too bad so many fo the guys who saw at least some of his coming are getting claimed by all the fringe conspiracy dicks. Gonna make it to easy for the MM to dismiss them and go back to doing puff pieces like the 60 minutes Frank and Benny B. "interviews".
Parent Post
Let\'s climb aboard the Wayback Machine! Mon Mar 16 21:05:41 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Long,Long ago I was a senior collector at the Bank now called Providian,an early issuer of credit account recievable securities.Those securities paid 12% and the card rate was 21.9%. If our losses had hit 4% heads would have rolled,even though late charges and overlimit fees were a big part of the profit.The big banks have a LOT more overhead.Of course if you borrow at 2.5% and lend at 25-30% you can absorb quite a bit in the way of overhead and losses.....it's the margin that counts.
Tom Stone Mon Mar 16 19:41:49 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
mmmm. sniff sniff. is that the odor of rising credit card interest rates in the air? smells like fresh inflation loaf. are there enough lawyers in the world to pursue millions of clients holding CCs that won't/can't pay their bills? wait until the percentage defaults gets to 20%. credit cards are among the most profitable things a bank does - IF the bills get paid. that can quickly reverse if the bills don't get paid.
oh wait, I hear something too. it sounds like timber falling. the credit card crash of 2009.
JimPortlandOR Mon Mar 16 19:42:12 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
""So are we really expected to believe that the average Chase receivable has 200-300bps less in charge offs than the rest of the industry?"
"Yes. Different issuers, different criteria. I would be surprised if there were *not* a difference between charge-off rates between issuers.""
-----------------------------------------------------
I'll go out on a limb here and say there's no way that JPM and COF are seeing lower default rates than Amex. Maybe their chargeoff assumptions are different, based on overly optimistic unemployment assumptions etc.. But Mr. Dimon and the clowns at COF will have a very hard time explaining why their businesses are immune to the distress elsewhere.
It's amazing how optimistic you can be when your very solvency is at stake.
Gavshire Hathaway Mon Mar 16 19:47:37 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Re JPM results - One might want to look at the reserve coverage ratio, account re-aging, etc. Determined minds have many tools at their disposal.
Parent Post
MrM Mon Mar 16 19:53:24 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Without HELOC and my CC what will I be able to buy!!!
Retail, thy future is bleak
What can I say
American shopping freak!
They cranked my limit so tight
Just when I need it most
My credit is my American right!
I dance, sob and scream
Without credit
No more American Dream!
nova Mon Mar 16 19:47:38 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
One Good Idea On Taxes: Cap Gains
CRbot Mon Mar 16 19:47:50 2009 CDT #
nova says:
“"We are sitting atop a tinder box.......and AIG is the match.
Thats what they said about countrywide...
nova Mon Mar 16 19:49:35 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Tom - what does being a Senior Collector get you?
nova Mon Mar 16 19:50:18 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
A cube with a view of the Golden Gate Bridge and $500 more a month in 1982.
Parent Post
Tom Stone Mon Mar 16 20:26:40 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Daddy, daddy...can I get a bailout!
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 19:51:28 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Cutting card limits and credit scores
reptillian Mon Mar 16 19:52:38 2009 CDT #
KR says:
"The Jim Rogers video from the last thread is interesting.
He suggests that it's time to take up farming and mining.
In Asia."
I listed to all of Marc Farber's videos on both bloomberg and youtube on the weekend. Farber and rogers on a similar wavelength - only Farber seems much more grounded or perhaps fatalistic. If you really want to get nervous, view Farber's videos.. I find it interesting that both these fellows are so bleak. It seems the gray-haired analysts are more definite on where this going and how it ends (in a war).
KR Mon Mar 16 19:53:07 2009 CDT #
Mr. Sparkle says:
I think that the obvious solution to the problem of a burgeoning default rate is to get people borrowing again. Oh, and make sure the government buys up this paper. (AAA+++ would rate again!)
Right? Right?
On the JPM vs AMEX... I wonder how many of the JPM cards are issued to JPM checking account holders? Can JPM just help itself to funds through the electronic connection in the event of a default? Make the collection path a lot shorter, I'd guess.
Mr. Sparkle Mon Mar 16 19:53:58 2009 CDT #
otishertz says:
CITI's charge off rate is growing at over 400% annually.
what if thy got to 25% charge off by year end from 9.33% now?
otishertz Mon Mar 16 19:55:17 2009 CDT #
zen diet says:
I always pay off my card charges that month. Maybe $10 interest/year. So Citi starting playing a game. Denying a charge for "security reasons" for 30 bucks of gas.Denying a charge to Amazon.
Called them and the Indian gentleman told me that for security reasons they would only accept charges in NYC where I live. They would not notify me when they did. Had to say the magic words "call my Senator" about refusing more bailout.
30 minutes later get call from American supervisor, apologizing with blah blah blah. Assured me no more problems.
Citibank delenda est!
zen diet Mon Mar 16 19:58:45 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Amex. Isn't that the largest holding of Berkshire Hathaway? Wasn't somebody here recently warning about this very thing?
Anyway. The solution is easy. Level 3 for personal credit. Rather than all this silly NPV based on actual performance just slap the stuff in "Loan Gitmo" and value it based on the original assumptions.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 16 19:59:50 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Somebody gave me a Gitmo keychain surfboard today from the base. It says "Guantanamo - Where you Getmo!
nova Mon Mar 16 20:01:12 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
Damn that was funny...I just peeeed myself! =-O
Parent Post
Money Man Mon Mar 16 20:25:02 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Getmo should be Gitmo and the keychain was made in Michigan.
nova Mon Mar 16 20:03:04 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Anyone want to help me develop a new branch of finance?
Income Swaps based on Profession and Geographic location
So a mid-level manager at a direct mail advertising business could swap, in 5% increments, their income for a 3 year period with that of a dairy farmhand. Then you could arrange that same deal, but with the 2 jobs located in different countries.
Expedites globalization, provides investment certainty and redistributes future cash flow. No need for student loans, let someone pay for a stake in a pool of the income of 500 recent law school grads.
That's what Jim Rogers was talking about, right? ...right?
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 20:03:42 2009 CDT #
nova says:
The surfboard also worked as a bottle opener. Since the person who gave me it represents people at "Camp Freedom" I thought it was ironic. Waterboard = Surfboard.
nova Mon Mar 16 20:06:07 2009 CDT #
DGP says:
OK I am tired of the Best and brightest are going to leave AIG. Here is the plan
1) Tax the bonus money paid to employees of a TARP funded institution at 110%. We get some of our money back.
2) It is a financial emergency. Give the president the ability to draft the "best and brightest" into the army if they leave AIG and send them right back. If they don't want to go there, send them to guard a mountain top in Afghanistan.
Problem solved
DGP Mon Mar 16 20:07:35 2009 CDT #
nova says:
DHP
Send them to the embassy in Pakistan. It will be overun any day now.
nova Mon Mar 16 20:09:25 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Hey, does the following story still show up in the news "Financial crisis was caused by subprime loans the government forced institutions to make to minorities"
I just saw that comment on another website... it's not really relevant, but I was embarrassed for the person who posted it
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 20:11:44 2009 CDT #
Let\'s climb aboard the Wayback Machine! says:
I'm embarrassed that you think Fannie and Freddie hand nothing to do with it. Oh yeah. It was all Jim Cramer's fault! :-P
Parent Post
Let\'s climb aboard the Wayback Machine! Mon Mar 16 21:10:46 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Screw this. JS-Kit just ate a longish thoughtful post in reply to EHP. I'll just read for a while.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 16 20:13:13 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Rob Dawg,
I can see a post you made but that did not show up in the thread if I click your name and look at past comments, but it was not a longish one.
If you want in on my Profession swaps, phone my business line at 1-800-BUY-MOON-LAND
As for Rogers, or Faber, there isn't much value in listening to them because what they say doesn't change much. I think they can be both smart and incorrect in what they say. The good thing they do is bringing up history.
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 20:20:32 2009 CDT #
redys says:
What I want to know is, why do we let the banks we've bailed out continue to charge usurious interest rates and fees to their customers/rescuers. If we're saving their bacon, we shouldn't have to let them keep frying ours.
redys Mon Mar 16 20:13:42 2009 CDT #
john d. rockefeller says:
I drive up to a gas station.
Swipe my plastic card thru that thing there.
My fuel gauge goes to F.
I get on down the road.
How cool is that!
Boy howdy!!!!
john d. rockefeller Mon Mar 16 20:13:55 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“The Jim Rogers video from the last thread is interesting.
He suggests that it's time to take up farming and mining.
In Asia.
That video should be required reading for all students in the US public school system.
ac Mon Mar 16 20:16:45 2009 CDT #
ac says:
BTW here's the link to the Jom Rogers interview again:
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.09/rogers.html
ac Mon Mar 16 20:17:40 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
There are some things money can't buy.
debtinator Mon Mar 16 20:18:41 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
sm_landlord,
OT, but would you part with the name of your health insurance agency? If you want to do so "discreetly", pass the info on to Rob Dawg and have him email me. [FTR, he can give you my email address.]
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Mon Mar 16 20:19:40 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
What does the Goldman Sachs Chief Economist say about this?
Morocco Bama Mon Mar 16 20:20:39 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
OK I am tired of the Best and brightest are going to leave AIG.
As I've stated previously, one condition of government money should've been a legal requirement that key employees stay put until the money's paid back (or else go to jail). Bonuses? NFW!
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Mon Mar 16 20:22:17 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
There is no escape from the collapsing avalanche of debt burying us all. The correlation between rising unemployment and increased default is indisputable. Every unemployed American is their own leveraged equity implosion. Link this to the leveraged money they were originally loaned and you have what was a small number get big, quickly. Cascade failure has been achieved and the ripples are washing away what was our economy.
DIPing to China Mon Mar 16 20:24:04 2009 CDT #
Eric in SD says:
Short on real details, but one of the first MSM articles I have seen hinting at public anger. Marketwatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Bailout-anger-creates-perilous-times/story.aspx?guid={E9A7B5F7-C084-4032-8DCA-2FE3BA26B76B}
Eric in SD Mon Mar 16 20:24:23 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
This news by itself worth at least +150 on the DOW :)
WAWAWA Mon Mar 16 20:24:33 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
The announced bonuses are just a portion of the total
$600mn remains in the bonus pool after they are paid
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 20:25:12 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
America Express - Leave Home Without It.
Morocco Bama Mon Mar 16 20:26:22 2009 CDT #
john d. rockefeller says:
"Anyone want to help me develop a new branch of finance?
Income Swaps based on Profession and Geographic location"
I'm in. Gonna need a name like - Disparate Occupation
XLO Diversive Region Collaterilized Default Swaps.
DOXDRCDS. Rule number 1. Confuse the hell out of everybody.Rule number 2. All memebers of the DOXDRCDS
board are entitled to retention bonuses.
john d. rockefeller Mon Mar 16 20:27:17 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
I was reading about Blythe Masters, supposed inventor of cds at JPM. The first product they rolled out was called "BISTRO" which, someone remarked, is the kind of place in England where gangsters hang out.
Parent Post
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Mon Mar 16 21:49:16 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
My sense on bailouts is that people don't like them, but they are prepared to accept them. They just want to be guaranteed a piece of pie themselves before corporations get to go through the dessert cart
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 20:28:29 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
American Express - You Don't Have a Home Anymore.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Mon Mar 16 20:29:09 2009 CDT #
vozworth says:
"So a mid-level manager at a direct mail advertising business could swap, in 5% increments, their income for a 3 year period with that of a dairy farmhand. Then you could arrange that same deal, but with the 2 jobs located in different countries."
can I swap two (count em 2) two-holed corn pickers for a "farmhand?"
vozworth Mon Mar 16 20:30:26 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Without HELOC and my CC what will I be able to buy!!!
"Retail, thy future is bleak
What can I say
American shopping freak! ...
Just came back from a small-sized meeting in Chevy Chase, Md., sponsored by the local parish, one of the more affluent parishes in the DC area. About 15 people there. They shared their experiences. It's surprising what hardship they described, in their own families and for people they come in contact with. Special pain over not being able to help their teen-age and grown children financially as much as they'd like. Those dependent on investments for income having trouble. One woman who works at a children's medical center here talked about seeing some familial stress resulting in some child abuse showing up at the emergency room.
A parish-wide meeting scheduled for March 30.
Pavel Mon Mar 16 20:32:28 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
American Express was started as an express mail business in Albany, New York, in 1850.It was founded as a joint stock corporation by the merger of the express companies owned by Henry Wells (Wells & Company), William Fargo (Livingston, Fargo & Company), and John Warren Butterfield (Wells, Butterfield & Company, the successor earlier in 1850 of Butterfield, Wasson & Company).
Morocco Bama Mon Mar 16 20:33:05 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“Short on real details, but one of the first MSM articles I have seen hinting at public anger.
I'm still employed and have done nothing but profit from this whole mess the past two years, and yet I routinely find myself angry in ways that I've never been angry before.
I can't imagine how it must be for people who just simultaneously saw their jobs and their wealth wiped out.
ac Mon Mar 16 20:34:16 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
The IMF is making inflation a worldwide event. All will feel the pain.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4986287/IMF-poised-to-print-billions-of-dollars-in-global-quantitative-easing.html
DIPing to China Mon Mar 16 20:35:36 2009 CDT #
S says:
THe IMF is a mechanism for the US to pick winners and losers. It was born of the post world era and the US financial construct. Of course the US wants the IMF to print money to ensure that the US printing which will create the massive inflation for dollar basics in these countries has some mitigating factor. ot ethe inflation numbers out of latvia lithuania and others today in the EU CPI numbers. If the RoW were smart they would dismiss this out of hand. Printing money whther through the SDR or Fed or UK is atantamount to devaluation. There will be no silver bullet and gladly paying a dollar today will cost you dearly or is it darling.
Parent Post
S Mon Mar 16 20:52:45 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
Shilling, courtesy of Mauldin, gives probably the best and most succinct summary I have seen of the credit binge and the unfolding bust, and reading it is not toxic. But it may not anticipate possible, fatal, financial accidents.
peAk Mon Mar 16 20:35:53 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
rogers says that most of the money has gone to the east and that countries in the west are debtor nations now. hmmm, i am not sure if i am buying this. first off, what does he consider to be money? fiat? what is money? remember, most of these asian countries did real well selling their junk to the west. so now, the west cannot buy as much of their junk. so what does this do to the asians? i mean good grief. sure there are a lot of rich people in these countries, opportunist who took advantage one way or the other by hook or crook to get ahead. but the vast majority of peoples in the eastern asian coutries are dirt poor and always have been. this answer by rogers reminds me of the crap that schiff was pushing a couple of years ago as he made the rounds on the boob toob, talking about investing in any currency except the dollar. mish shedlock brought this subject up one time and the stuff hit the fan about it ,even though what shedlock said was true at the time. to me, it is not as clear as what rogers is saying about it. maybe he is right. time will tell. chasing paper trails around will never work for me. i like the shiney stuff that is in your hand and not in the bush.....
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 20:37:57 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Ya but people are spending! A consumer economy predicated on credit..woohoo
Barley Mon Mar 16 20:37:59 2009 CDT #
ac says:
"I mean, if you could, is there some way you can just, in English to the average American...try to think this through and more in words, in terms, that the average American starts to understand," Baucus pleaded with Geithner.
Here's what the average American needs to understand:
"You were r---d and lied to by both Wall Street and Washington. Your anger is entirely justified and appropriate. The solution to these problems lay in your hands, not the financiers, economists, and politicians that caused them."
ac Mon Mar 16 20:40:38 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
. . . card hold defaults refers to the card issuer liability. Credit card 'charge backs' are a different issue . . . .
True, and I didn't mean to suggest otherwise. I just don't like credit cards.
I pay in cash whenever possible, but I subsidize those who use credit cards since the merchant raises his prices to pay the charge for taking cards.
I may receive a credit card in payment and later have to deal with a chargeback which is a pain in the butt and often not worth the hassle.
I could go on, but I just don't like credit cards from any perspective.
sportsfan Mon Mar 16 20:41:38 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Rob Dawg says:Today, 6:13:13 PM“Screw this. JS-Kit just ate a longish thoughtful post in reply to EHP. I'll just read for a while.
happened to me a few time over the last few days...my postings are now much fewer!
Barley Mon Mar 16 20:41:44 2009 CDT #
timetopay says:
"They" have a choice: just tell folks it's over the whole thing is going down OR make up lots of little lies to paper things over and hope by some miracle we only have a Depression -- shouldn't we be rooting for them to succeed or NOT??
timetopay Mon Mar 16 20:41:50 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Mercantilism does not work, but asians will not learn.
//rogers says that most of the money has gone to the east and that countries in the west are debtor nations now. hmmm, i am not sure if i am buying this. first off, what does he consider to be money? fiat? what is money? remember, most of these asian countries did real well selling their junk to the west.//
Lucifer Mon Mar 16 20:45:22 2009 CDT #
alex black says:
Tom Stone - I hope you spent a bit of that extra $500 a month wandering over to Broadway in 1982 and catching my punk rock band play at the Mabuhay. A hell of a great year in SF.
alex black Mon Mar 16 20:47:26 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Good god,the Mabuhay.Yes,I caught a few bands there.A great time to be a straight man in SF.
Parent Post
Tom Stone Mon Mar 16 21:10:59 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“Shilling, courtesy of Mauldin, gives probably the best and most succinct summary I have seen...
Shilling's advice over the past couple of years has been as good as gold.
But you kind of have to laugh a bit when he says "We're not predicting a depression because we're not the kind of people that predict depressions."
ac Mon Mar 16 20:47:55 2009 CDT #
Mark2Make-Believe says:
Japanese Stocks Rise a 3rd Day on Bank Optimism;
March 17 2009 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks climbed for a third day on optimism bank earnings may rebound and after brokerages upgraded Sumco Corp.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMPay7JDc9hI&refer=home
___________________
Japanese Stocks Rise for Third Day; Mitsubishi UFJ Leads Banks
Dec. 25 2007 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose for a third day, led by financial shares, after a decline in interbank borrowing costs signaled a global credit-market slump is easing.
_____________________
Japanese Stocks Rise for Third Day, Led by Toyota; DoCoMo Gains
Dec. 22 2003 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose, led by automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. after the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported their overseas production may exceed domestic output by 2005.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aPhElTyvLjy8&refer=japan
_________________
Japanese stocks rise for third day, dollar gains in Tokyo
AP - March 17, 1999
Japanese share prices climbed to their highest level in almost eight months today on optimism about corporate restructuring efforts.
http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=NewsLibrary&p_multi=APAB&d_place=APAB&p_theme=newslibrary2&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=0F8A0F21B1F6397E&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM
___________________
AP - February 9, 1998
Japanese stocks rise for third day, dollar gains
Japanese stocks rose for a third straight trading day today after Tokyo's lower house of parliament approved the use of public funds to bail out the country's ailing banking industry. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 164.94 points, or 0.97 percent, to close at 17,205.00.
http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=NewsLibrary&p_multi=APAB&d_place=APAB&p_theme=newslibrary2&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=0F8B51FD0FBBCD92&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM
Mark2Make-Believe Mon Mar 16 20:51:05 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Too American didn't Express
Guest Mon Mar 16 20:54:16 2009 CDT #
lawn grass says:
Seems to think that AIG's books are cooked. The squirelly excuse that the bonuses are locked in due to contracts is not palatable. If we own %80 of this company, then the pay and bonuses should be on our terms. Someone is worried about retention of qualified personell. Sure there were proabably non-guilty personell in areas other than the credit swap division, but without our money how much pay would have been available to pay bonuses let alone keep these people employed?
There just seems to be no accountability except when the government is to pay then the government is held accountable, not those who made the wrong bet within the company.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/wiliam-black-savages-treasurys-conduct.html
lawn grass Mon Mar 16 20:56:23 2009 CDT #
donailin says:
Always wanted to do this.
I bring you threadmusic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cBsWIpkuT0
".....Did you demand any answers?
The who and the what and the reason why?
Did you ever question the setup?
Did you stand aside and let 'em choose while you took second best?
Did you let 'em skim the cream off and give to you the rest?
Did you settle for the shoddy and did you think it right
To let 'em rob you right and left and never make a fight,
never make a fight, never make a fight?. . ."
Fillean meal ar an meallaire. . !
donailin Mon Mar 16 20:57:19 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Precursor of things to come?
In a first, bankruptcy judge rules Calif. city can void union contracts
In the first ruling of its kind, a bankruptcy judge held the city of Vallejo, Calif. has the authority to void its existing union contracts in its effort to reorganize, holding public workers do not enjoy the same protections Congress gave union workers at private companies.
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 20:58:06 2009 CDT #
1 currency [yogi] says:
Trading places on the tube, very timely.
Never realized it but the butler sort of steals the show.
1 currency [yogi] Mon Mar 16 20:59:17 2009 CDT #
vozworth says:
- the electronic-connection of the message is trapped in the nadir of the US birth-cycle (1970-1975)
Who is not me, why are they wrong, and why?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fF4wf3R8Bk
vozworth Mon Mar 16 21:03:23 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
All,
at 3:15pm EST today Yahoo Finance ran a headline that missed the spell check:
"Obama: AIG can't LUSTIFY 'outrage' of bonuses"
Snagit Screen shot can be seen at:
http://economicdisconnect.blogspot.com/2009/03/full-court-financial-press.html
GYSC Mon Mar 16 21:03:47 2009 CDT #
OT on AIG says:
Grassley on AIG execs: Quit or suicide
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20083.html
In a comment aired this afternoon on WMT, an Iowa radio station, Grassley (R-Iowa) said: “The first thing that would make me feel a little bit better towards them if they’d follow the Japanese model and come before the American people and take that deep bow and say I’m sorry, and then either do one of two things — resign, or go commit suicide.”
=-X =-X
OT on AIG Mon Mar 16 21:05:46 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
"In a comment aired this afternoon on WMT, an Iowa radio station, Grassley (R-Iowa) said: “The first thing that would make me feel a little bit better towards them if they’d follow the Japanese model and come before the American people and take that deep bow and say I’m sorry, and then either do one of two things — resign, or go commit suicide.”
Wow! I was just going to suggest they get stripped of everything and run the gauntlet, tar and feathers optional.
Parent Post
Guest Mon Mar 16 21:14:39 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
Comrade Bear,
Drop RD a line for the address. The answer is a bit complicated.
sm_landlord Mon Mar 16 21:05:53 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Drum Roll:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oowuyzxgmtg
Guest Mon Mar 16 21:08:26 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Mercantilism does not work, but asians will not learn.
It is not the mercantilism that drives these countries but the thought of easy jobs for their citizens. 1. get the currency below their true value 2. create export zones with tax benefits 3. wink/wink on labor restrictions/environmental laws.
I think that the game is coming to an end
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 21:12:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Backing Off On Mark-To-Market
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/16/mark-to-market-accounting-business-wall-street-fasb-157.html
"The Board acknowledges there are significant challenges to estimating fair value, particularly in illiquid markets, requiring the gathering and analysis of relevant data and the exercise of sound judgment."
See: AIG and sound judgement
=-X
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 21:12:56 2009 CDT #
Samdog says:
Well, I'm sure glad GS got one of the first and biggest of AIG's--I mean taxpayers'--handouts. Maybe Hank Paulson will let me shine his head for some tablescraps when I'm 80.
Samdog Mon Mar 16 21:29:50 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
sm_landlord,
Dawg has my email address, but I don't have his. Figure that one out. ;)
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Mon Mar 16 21:32:47 2009 CDT #
sm_landlord says:
CB, I sent him a note. Hopefully he gets it.
Parent Post
sm_landlord Mon Mar 16 21:44:32 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
public workers do not enjoy the same protections Congress gave union workers at private companies
HALLELUJAH!!! The Cali courthouses are going to be humming this summer. Pretty soon it will be an easier question which CA cities aren't going BK.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Mon Mar 16 21:35:18 2009 CDT #
Topher says:
Rob Dawg writes:
Screw this. JS-Kit just ate a longish thoughtful post in reply to EHP. I'll just read for a while.
Rob Dawg | Mon, 16 Mar 09 20:13:13 -0500 | #
I use MSFT Word and copy and past to comment. I learned a long time ago about that happening.
Topher Mon Mar 16 21:38:06 2009 CDT #
Samdog says:
Darn! I blew my chance to sell "Credit Card Default Swaps" for AIG ....
Samdog Mon Mar 16 21:38:32 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
copy and past to comment
So much for that. 8-)
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Mon Mar 16 21:39:19 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Thinking about going to join the Somali pirates. Gotta learn some new, useful job skills.
reptillian Mon Mar 16 21:41:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
grassley has been there a long time. what has he done? what has he done really? not much. all of them are like that? they are one of the reasons we are in the shape we are in. they are not doing their jobs and are not caring about the people who elected them to office. in the senate , i cannot think of one man or woman that is worthy of their office. not one.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 21:44:34 2009 CDT #
Samdog says:
Anonymous:
In general, I have to agree with your analysis. I also take exception to Sen. Grassley's comments--way out of line.
And way too easy: those schmucks need to be sent to a secret CIA facility to be tortured.
Then harvest the bodies for organs....
Parent Post
Samdog Mon Mar 16 21:59:17 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
grassley has been there a long time. what has he done? what has he done really? not much.
BS. Grassley has done everything his contribution paying constituency demanded - maintained & expanded agricultural subsidies. What else would Iowa farmers want him to do? Subsidize New York investment banks?
Parent Post
dryfly Mon Mar 16 22:26:23 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Tom S, who bought Providian?
I wish I was still single living in sunset district bcse it is full of women looking for a hetero male...in other words its still good...
Can't even go get a beer without running into a beautiful lady...or maybe its the trick Jim Carrey uses in this movie..forward to 3:54....too funny....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzrd0XE9v5s
cd Mon Mar 16 21:50:59 2009 CDT #
Kadomount says:
I don't know if anyone has mentioned this, but I believe that all those penalties and fees generated by defaults are recorded as revenue (as it is an increase in the consumer's liability to the bank). I wonder how much this is adding to the recent "profits" announced by some of the big banks?
Kadomount Mon Mar 16 21:59:18 2009 CDT #
Bill Mitchell says:
Apparently to shrink exposure, Amex is now mailing a "warning" notice to cardholders a month before the annual fee comes due. In it, they instruct you on how to cancel your card to avoid the annual fee. I've heard from credible sources that this is delivered to holders with clean credit, FICO > 800 and zero balance on any card. Does this make sense?
Bill Mitchell Tue Mar 17 00:10:49 2009 CDT #
Don says:
If you call BofA and say you got laid off. They will automatically cancel your card and put you in collection. Even if you are current and not missed a payment. That must be pushing numbers like this also.
Don Tue Mar 17 00:36:04 2009 CDT #
Kiwi says:
Dryfly said;
"BS. Grassley has done everything his contribution paying constituency demanded - maintained & expanded agricultural subsidies."
USDA has just introduced country of origin labelling requirements for ground beef. I assume this is a scheme from the farm lobby to induce US consumers to buy USA. But savvy readers on this blog can game the system and seek out better quality ground beef that originates from New Zealand, because;
It contains less fat (fitter cows who have to expend effort to graze).
Grass feed so more flavour (corn feed only makes economic sense if corn subsidised).
No growth hormones (It scares the hell out the Europeans so we don't indulge).
No mad cow disease (Why feed animal remains to ruminants when you can more lucratively export animal remains to pet food producers?).
Kiwi Tue Mar 17 01:08:56 2009 CDT #
kidbuck says:
When you send unsolicited credit apps and blank checks to everybody and their dog three times a week for thirty years, what could possibly go wrong?
kidbuck Tue Mar 17 03:53:44 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Nothing until you run out of pension funds to sell the package of securitized loans too.
-- w
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 05:15:04 2009 CDT #
kiewi says:
Kiwi writes:
Dryfly said;
"BS. Grassley has done everything his contribution paying constituency demanded - maintained & expanded agricultural subsidies."
USDA has just introduced country of origin labelling requirements for ground beef. I assume this is a scheme from the farm lobby to induce US consumers to buy USA. But savvy readers on this blog can game the system and seek out better quality ground beef that originates from New Zealand, because;
It contains less fat (fitter cows who have to expend effort to graze).
Grass feed so more flavour
get real kiwi, the flavour in beef is down to the fat, as in more is more, google wagyu, marbled
i agree that NZ ground beef is ok, but be aware that is all the land of the free allows in from us....not gonna change in this climate
my advice: buy nz beef and lamb and eat it yourself with a good pinot noir until they wake up
i do....
kiewi Tue Mar 17 05:52:43 2009 CDT #
Paper or Plastic says:
How about that credit-card *outreach* commercial last night. C, BAC, JPM et al banded together to aid troubled card holders in a hysterically themed commercial where a gal quit working due to mom's illness and could no longer keep up with her credit card payments...
WTF! As if this were the face of troubled card holders today???? How about a story line where these companies over extended credit, held millions captive, lobbied the government for relief from *legacy* assets while their customers drown in *legacy* mortgages and *legacy* credit card balances of a previous time in history. This would more accurately tell the story. Mother-effers, all of 'em.
Paper or Plastic Tue Mar 17 10:25:15 2009 CDT #
END