Comments for "Market and Misc"
nova says:
way
nova Tue Mar 31 15:31:40 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4370816338601799082
CRbot Tue Mar 31 15:33:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
snake eyes for the riv.
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 15:33:35 2009 CDT #
Cal Housing Bear says:
Well they are right about the competitor's discounting rates -- got a great rate in Vegas at the Wynn over memorial day weekend -- even below the best rate published on the web -- simply by asking the reservationist once.
But if you can't compete, well guess it's time to fold. Perhaps those analysts who underwrote the riviera debt need to learn how to test what happens when the positive growth projections are negative....
Cal Housing Bear Tue Mar 31 15:39:09 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
Acceleration of the decline is disappointing? I guess if you own a house it is. Personally, I have been watching this disaster grow and unfold for six years. Without this fiasco, I would have had a nice reasonably-priced home in 2004 or 2005. Oh, and I would probably still have my job with that large investment bank.
Now, I'll be able to get a house for late 1990s prices in 2010. If my client work holds up, I'll be in good shape. Well, except for the additional taxes to help pay for this stupidity.
Some Investor Guy Tue Mar 31 15:39:14 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
"Broadway Partners of New York, defaulted on some of the loans it used to buy property for $1.3 billion in late 2006."
Reeeeeeally... Who was their lender?
Guest Tue Mar 31 15:39:48 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
I have asked this before, but...
How do we know the '29 bear market ever ended?
Nemo Tue Mar 31 15:40:43 2009 CDT #
Interesting Times says:
"The John Hancock Tower was sold today for $660.6 million"
Knifecatchers.
Interesting Times Tue Mar 31 15:40:53 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
Have you been hitting the caffeine today CR?
Everything is so doom that it's almost time we start a contrarian blog. I look forward to the days when CR can be ridiculed for spotting the upward trend before anyone else.
Hurry up, bottom. I ain't gettin no younger.
Outsider Tue Mar 31 15:41:45 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
What would Fritz do?
But of course, he'd have a Hamburg...er.
Morocco Bama Tue Mar 31 15:43:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
We are so fundamentally worse off then in the '73 oil crisis or the Tech Bubble collapse, so I think its going to look alot more like the '29 crash and expect it down at least another 30 %.
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 15:44:17 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Nemo
The radical realignment of the economy for WWII, and also the ensuing destruction, cut spare capacity across the board. With no spare capacity, there was growth in every industry (with the possible exception of military supplies production, which was offset by the multiplicative growth outside of it)
If you can forecast steady demand growth, just about any business can be a success
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 15:44:28 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Wells-Fargo-says-may-cut/story.aspx?guid=%7B617FC24E-1EF6-4DCF-8736-C4E6813515DD%7D&dist=hplatest
The H-1B program allows temporary employment of people from overseas who have specialized skills and education. Technology companies use it a lot, but the 12 biggest banks that took TARP money requested visas for more than 21,800 foreign workers in the past six years, according to the Associated Press.
The legislation doesn't apply to current employees of Wells and other TARP recipients who need to have their existing H-1B visas renewed. However, Wells is letting those visas expire anyway, according to a copy of an internal email sent to some of its foreign employees on March 20 from the bank's human resources department.
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 15:47:43 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Actually 1929 and the years after are nothing to joke about. A lot of people did not have Internet or Plasma TVs. We had to wait until until 2003 for a big screen TV.
nova Tue Mar 31 15:49:03 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Candy Spelling's mansion is for sale at $150 Million. I think the John Hancock buyer gets a better deal, with the possibility of getting some rental income.
reptillian Tue Mar 31 15:49:32 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Simon Johnson talking about the "US as a Banana republic" article
http://www.kcrw.com/news/programs/tp/tp090331is_the_us_becoming_a
article link
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200905/imf-advice
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 15:51:07 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
People stay at the Riviera on purpose? Shocking. I thought it was only a place for nostalgic shits and giggles. And washed up exotic dancers.
Maybe 20 years ago..., but I'd sooner stay at Whiskey Pete's !
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 15:51:28 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Back in 1971 I saw all of this happening. I didn't understand it. I wanted to blog it, but no one knew what I was talking about. Only some Indian man who kept following me around writing my every utterance in his sprial notebook.
Sometimes he would leave and I would ask where he had been.
He would whisper "popsicles"
nova Tue Mar 31 15:52:07 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
CR, when I analyzed San Diego and La Jolla pricing data, running it through various seasonality tests, I found no seasonality element in prices. So, I would not concern myself that the C-S prices are not seasonally adjusted.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Tue Mar 31 15:54:19 2009 CDT #
nades says:
jg thats cause its always summer. i can tell you house shopping in boston in the winter is an entirely different animal...
Parent Post
nades Tue Mar 31 15:56:58 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
by their very nature, year-over-year growth rates control for seasonality.
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 02:00:27 2009 CDT #
nades says:
I read a book a few years ago about Broadway Partners and how they developed a complete money pit in NYC. Totally lost their ass...
It was the eighties.
Twenty years later 100 miles a way...
Classic!
nades Tue Mar 31 15:54:26 2009 CDT #
cd says:
the day IYR hits single digits...bottom might be in...
more reit dividend suspension...started snacking on srs at 52-53...
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2250366/
cd Tue Mar 31 15:54:30 2009 CDT #
nova says:
If America was a car it would be an Oldsmobile with the backseat on fire.
nova Tue Mar 31 15:55:29 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Anon,
actually people go to the Riveria to save on a pack of smokes..just breathe in the air and you'll get as close to the brat pack as you ever will...those are not yellow walls....
cd Tue Mar 31 15:56:43 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
We deserve a good news story, please
Barley Tue Mar 31 15:57:03 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
What if America was a German car?
Morocco Bama Tue Mar 31 15:57:27 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Barely, i take it you dont find the cap of credit card rates to be good news? /snarking ;)
nades Tue Mar 31 15:58:16 2009 CDT #
nova says:
If America was a house, it would have a good view of the ocean in front, and a oil spill in the backyard.
nova Tue Mar 31 15:59:16 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Great post @ Pension Pulse
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009/03/giant-experiment.html
I'm going to be right about Bonds being priced at a premium to their counterpart stock.
Granted, I did not see the recent bear market rally coming although I had no money at stake so it all works out -- should have paid heed to Jay D when he went on about emerging markets leading the charge up.
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 16:00:41 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
EHP - wow!. I know quite a few folks on TN and H1B visas.
So BR was right about being the "bitch" to the biggest guy in the jail cell.
Just another capitialist protection thingy.
Barley Tue Mar 31 16:02:05 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
The Iceland news translation page has had a major upgrade. Very nice. Her personal blog is still very depressed but it looks like she found an unemployed web designer to help her out.
http://www.newsfrettir.com/
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 16:03:47 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
I'm the dude Taleb was talking about in Fooled By Randomness who confuses skill with luck. My IRA was up 50% in December. Now, I'm only up 10%. Sure that's better than just about everyone else I know, but I have been on the wrong side of most trades this year. Not to mention that I probably lost a few years of my life due to the stress I've been feeling during that time. Being down 33% in FAZ will do that to you. I've actually made money since 10/07 and I still feel like a loser. I have no idea how people who are down 50% or so can still sit in equities. I doubt I'll touch them again for the next decade.
TCA Tue Mar 31 16:05:42 2009 CDT #
nova says:
<tbody>
“Candy Spelling's mansion is for sale at $150 Million. I think the John Hancock buyer gets a better deal, with the possibility of getting some rental income
</tbody>
Be cheaper to buy Iceland
nova Tue Mar 31 16:07:15 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Actually, if you wait, 150 million might get you Iceland an a county in Ireland.
Wait even longer and you could probably buy Detroit
nova Tue Mar 31 16:09:21 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Wake me up when the Las Vegas gambling houses start cutting the odds and maybe I'll start looking for a bottom.
Br\'er Dawg Tue Mar 31 16:10:33 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
Buffet has the quote about Americans winning the birth country lottery. Why aren't I feeling so lucky lately?
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 16:10:37 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
New Credit Card Rules; FDIC Borrowing Limit Upped
CRbot Tue Mar 31 16:12:56 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Market's really bipolar. Down more than 3% yesterday; up today, with a late day selloff. Gov't calling the shots at the automakers may have really put the scare into the financials yesterday. Earnings -- or, the lack of them -- are coming; many companies may make reduced estimates, but guide future earnings lower or, like Microsoft last quater, say that they can no longer provide earnings guidance. If you consider that this "recession" is worse than '01-'02, when the market fell into the 700s, you've got to wonder why it is as high as it is (nearly 800).
reptillian Tue Mar 31 16:15:13 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Gov't calling the shots at the automakers may have really put the scare into the financials yesterday."
Yep, eventually UAW is going to start asking why banks are so special. That will roll a few dems to the, no more bail-out side of the isle. If the money train to AIG black hole gets cut off...
I really, really want GS to get theirs.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 16:34:03 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
Sarkozy is threatening to not sign the G20 communique and to walk out of the conference. Large strikes and holding high level corporate officials hostage might actually bring about real change? Who'd a thunk it!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/5084581/G20-summit-Barack-Obama-conciliatory-over-Nicolas-Sarkozys-walkout-threat.html
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 16:22:04 2009 CDT #
Ho Lee Kow says:
Ganstanomics in theory and practice: a well-researched summary of Lawrence Summers' activities as mafia boss and economic hit man.
<h3 class="post-title entry-title">The real Larry Summers scandal?</h3>
by Steve Sailer
Ho Lee Kow Tue Mar 31 16:24:47 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Wave of the future:
FRANCE: TAKING MANAGEMENT HOSTAGE
Several hundred employees at a Caterpillar Inc. office in Grenoble, France held four managers (including the head of operations) captive for several hours March 31 before police forced the workers to release them. This is the third example of workers holding management hostage in France in the past three weeks. On March 25, employees of a 3M plant held their country operations director for over 24 hours in protest of severance packages for laid-off staff. And workers used tree trunks to barricade a facility where Sony France CEO Serge Foucher was held captive in a meeting room for 18 hours March 12 and 13.
French workers have a reputation for going to great lengths to protest layoffs and plant closures, and the tactic of taking managers hostage has been used before. At least three other similar hostage situations occurred in France in 2008. Recent hostage incidents have lasted as long as 24 hours. In 2008, however, two executives of a machine parts manufacturer were held for five days at a French factory. Police tend to avoid getting too involved in such incidents, usually opting to monitor the situation rather than break them up.
In each case, the layoffs and plant closures were at the heart of the dispute, and the executive or manager (often visiting from headquarters) was held to publicize the event and pressure the parent company to enter talks with workers. Negotiations did in fact resumed between labor and management following each hostage incident.
Similar incidents have occurred in China and India over the past months. In March of 2009, executives of a Western firm operating in China were detained for several days during a meeting over layoffs at the company. In an extreme case, Indian workers at an auto parts factory outside New Delhi owned by Italian automotive firm Graziano beat an Indian company executive to death Sept. 30 after being laid off two months earlier. While physical harm to executives is rare (none has occurred in France), the hostages of often very angry and desperate workers are at risk.
In November, STRATFOR pointed out that a contracting global economy that has seen layoffs, plant closures and security budget cuts worldwide has laid the conditions for increased workplace violence. With the recession still going and more layoffs expected, incidents such as the one today can be expected to continue. Additionally, if police allow such actions to take place unmolested and the tactic prompts management to negotiate with workers, this will only create an incentive for other aggrieved workers to carry out similar hostage takings.
Copyright 2009 Stratfor.
Max Tue Mar 31 16:25:41 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Yeah, the cheese-eating, surrender monkeys, are kind of peacable about it though. I am kind of torn over what the USA version would be. Sad, bucause it would most likely involve loss of life, and a little bit hopefull, in that it might get the gov to stop pissing away money on zombie banks and start addressing the real economy.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 16:43:54 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Back in 1971 I saw all of this happening. I didn't understand it. I wanted to blog it, but no one knew what I was talking about. Only some Indian man who kept following me around writing my every utterance in his sprial notebook.
Sometimes he would leave and I would ask where he had been.
He would whisper "popsicles"
- Nova
Very "Twin Peaks" :)
scone Tue Mar 31 16:26:52 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
For Deflationary Jane, from previous thread:
"btw, have you heard anything about the UCRP funds decline? Rumors here have the fund going from 180% of their 'needs' to 65%. The state's 4% contribution which UC quit taking years ago is no longer available. If true, employee contribution requirements could soar."
I heard a garbled version of that from a friend up in another department. Her take on it was that the shortfall might affect future retirement payouts, and anyone near retirement would be advised to jump ship now. The figure "65 percent" was in there somewhere. Your version makes more sense than hers; employee benefit talk makes her brain white out. But obviously, something's up.
Bob Dobbs Tue Mar 31 16:27:41 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"We expect this situation to continue as long as competitors in the Las Vegas market follow a strategy of sacrificing ADR (average daily room rate) to maximize room occupancy and the decline in convention business is unabated."
Man I love Vegas. It is so much fun to go during football season, make some crazy parlays and spend the day watching games I would normally not care about and getting hammered using the "free" drink tickets from the sportsbook. The to spend the nights at the craps tables looking for a "hot" table and living in the non-logical world of "lucky streaks" and bad beats. More often thatn not, I'd get free food for the duratiom my room comped to boot.
Then came the HELOC ATMs and all the L.A. folks with more money than sense, and I was not such a high roller anymore. Rooms were never comped and you'd be luck to get a free buffet.
It sure would be nice to get back to when the house's cut resuted in even something imaginary in return.
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 16:30:00 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
Geez, we converged on the GD line. If this tracks for a couple weeks, I'll started to believe in Techbical Analysis.
sdtfs Tue Mar 31 16:33:04 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Geez, we converged on the GD line. If this tracks for a couple weeks, I'll started to believe in Techbical Analysis."
I bet money on it. Well FAZ calls anyway.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 16:35:35 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
"Wave of the future:
FRANCE: TAKING MANAGEMENT HOSTAGE"
That article is completely hysterical.
Outsider Tue Mar 31 16:33:54 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
They're very civil in France. The managers taken hostage may have agreed to be taken hostage.
reptillian Tue Mar 31 16:35:01 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
Well, the police certainly seem to be civil. Should we go in and rescue the hostages? Nah. They'll come out eventually. Cheese, anyone?
Outsider Tue Mar 31 16:36:14 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Regarding all those comments about how negative the news is, it is called a "reckoning". How long did you think the country could export debt and import finished goods without a day of reckoning? How long do you think the country could underinvest in its most valuable resource, its people, and continue to enjoy an ever-increasing standard of living?
America is broken, and some would view the bad news as good news, since at last we have to get out of our Prozac-induced stupor and work to fix things.
It is going to be painful, though. Change usually is.
ghostfacedinvestah Tue Mar 31 16:38:07 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
France's big problem is not strikers; its big problem is avoiding getting annexed by Algeria.
debtinator Tue Mar 31 16:38:31 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
As I posted on the dead thread below, today was a 3 foreclosure day.
Maybe I should hire some handsome guys, fire them and then hope to be seized.
Miami is now 44% off according to Case-Schiller. As of end of Jan, so I guess 48% off now. but I do see a bottom to low to mid priced properties, and vultures are getting active again.
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 31 16:42:35 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
A good examination of the the stakes of the G20 meeting from outside the US perspective.
http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson03302009.html
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 16:43:14 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Well, the police certainly seem to be civil. Should we go in and rescue the hostages? Nah. They'll come out eventually. Cheese, anyone?
Who cares where you're being held if there's enough coffee, cigarettes, and wine!
Max Tue Mar 31 16:44:22 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
I really, really want GS to get theirs.
----------------------------------------
Oh yeah, Blackhalo, oh yeah.
homedad43 Tue Mar 31 16:44:35 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
GS is getting theirs, it used to be ours. You didn't get the thank you card?
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 16:48:48 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Four smaller regional banks on Tuesday became the first financial institutions to return the federal money they had received under the government’s banking bailout, leaving a program that placed restrictions on their executive compensation and other spending....Bank of Marin returned $28 million. “Given the operating restrictions we experienced as a participant, we believe this decision is in the best interest of our customers, shareholders and employees,” Russell A. Colombo, the bank’s chief executive, said in a statement. “We feel we are well positioned to continue lending in our community without additional capital support.”
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/4-banks-become-first-to-repay-tarp-money/?hpw
Barley Tue Mar 31 16:52:41 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Four smaller regional banks on Tuesday became the first financial institutions to return the federal money they had received under the government’s banking bailout, leaving a program that placed restrictions on their executive compensation and other spending....Bank of Marin returned $28 million."
Ruh-roh! It is about to become a LOT more clear who the bad apples are. With mark to make-belive investors shold be wary. Especially the bondholders.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 16:58:31 2009 CDT #
fafhrd says:
Who cares where you're being held if there's enough coffee, cigarettes, and wine!
You better add Tums to the larder.
fafhrd Tue Mar 31 16:53:38 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
And you will get busier Lawyerliz...FL U rose 75k in Feb, ouch
Barley Tue Mar 31 16:54:23 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
getting annexed by Algeria.
+1
Barley Tue Mar 31 16:55:19 2009 CDT #
fafhrd says:
Ruh-roh! It is about to become a LOT more clear who the bad apples are.
You think so? I'd guess that the backdoor AIG loss/transfers were put in place to avoid the public scrutiny of the more brightly lit TARP.
fafhrd Tue Mar 31 17:02:14 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I'd guess that the backdoor AIG loss/transfers were put in place to avoid the public scrutiny of the more brightly lit TARP."
Yeah. Sure seems like it would be nice if someone would close that door.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 17:10:09 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
The company said its casino properties in Las Vegas and Colorado continue to generate positive cash flow, despite the recession, but that it's not generating enough cash to make its loan payments.
Wait a sec... If you don't bring in enough money to pay your bills, how are you cash flow positive?
Chicago Dude Tue Mar 31 17:02:39 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
You will know the bottom is in when your investments are 100% invested in me.
Mandatory Patriot Bond Tue Mar 31 17:04:37 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
If you don't bring in enough money to pay your bills, how are you cash flow positive?
and we thought ebidta died with the dot.com bust
Basel Too Tue Mar 31 17:05:07 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
But listening to the sad stories is, well, sad. Actually, people have been bringing me some contracts- or at least talking about bringing me some contracts. And I have some other stuff pending. And my closing might actually close tomorrow.
The morning one was a couple who had loaned some money to her mother. They refuse to acknowledge that the price has dropped drastically, refuse to acknowledge that they are about to be thrown out. They actually did have some equity and could still come close to breaking even. I said, well, I can drag it out while you try to sell it, but I want to see their names on a listing agreement for a realistic price. They called an agent who quoted a selling price of just about the Case Shiller drop of 44% off. I said I can't represent your parents if they don't want me. And do they realize that the sheriff will come and put there stuff on the sidewalk in a few months if they don't acknowledge reality? All you can do is plan on them moving in when this happens.
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 31 17:09:01 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
CR: "I forgot to mention CS is not seasonally adjusted (an important point)..."
CR, CS also makes available seasonally adjusted data:
Seasonally Adjusted Home Price Values:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SA_CSHomePrice_History_033114.xls
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 31 17:18:17 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
What's good for GS is good for America.
Mandatory Patriot Bond Tue Mar 31 17:18:48 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Government Sucks is good for America?!
Suckers!! Yeah, yeah, dopes too.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 31 17:21:15 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Money Magazine Housing Price Forecasts by State
reptillian Tue Mar 31 17:20:08 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Only some Indian man who kept following me around"
---------
I didn't realize that you and Jas were long-time acquaintances.
The "Casino positive cash-flow" comment is funny.
File that in the "Clinton Ran A Surplus" folder.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 17:26:09 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Speaking of GS, ZeroHedge singled out their exposure to interest rate swaps in the OCC derivatives disclosure
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/is-gs-tempting-interest-rate-black-swan.html
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 17:26:52 2009 CDT #
grumpyoldvet says:
David Tice, Cheif Portfolio Strategist, of Federated Investors on Bloomberg right now and they are looking at S&P 525, translating to Dow 3100.
Too much debt, too many stores, too many offices, too much of eberything. :(
grumpyoldvet Tue Mar 31 17:26:58 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
Jas, we prefer to refer to our dopes as consumers. It appeals to their sense of pride and duty.
Mandatory Patriot Bond Tue Mar 31 17:26:59 2009 CDT #
Pigpen is my favorite Charlie Brown character says:
EHP, here is the piece I wrote regarding the asset allocation of public pension system for the last 50+ years and the how wall street fleeced the pension system. I dedicated the piece to TATNA. She inspired me.
http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/03/28/who-killed-the-us-public-pension-system/
Pigpen is my favorite Charlie Brown character Tue Mar 31 17:31:48 2009 CDT #
Tom Lawler says:
A few key points: (1) the CS monthly index reflects transactions from Novemenber to January; (2) REO dispositions, based on remittance reports from servicers of loans backing private-label MBS, from Fannie and Freddie's 10-K disclosures, and implied from the FDIC-insured data on REO inventories, surged in the fourth quarter of last year relative to Q3. Other data from DQ or MLS also indicate that REO sales in the last few months of 2008 surged.
The CS index decline indicates that prices based on repeat-transactions from November to January declined at an accelerated pace relative to transactions from October to December. That was no surprise. However, local MLS/DQ/other data suggest that in February the pace of decline was not nearly as severe, and in some cases prices appear to have stabilized. The dumping of REO properties by mortgage lenders in the last few months of 2008 appears to have accelerated price declines as measured by indexes such as CS, which include sales by mortgage lenders of REO to third parties.
Tom Lawler Tue Mar 31 17:32:38 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Chicago Dude
going just from the excerpt you quoted, I would say that they consider debt to be the mother company's obligation and that they consider the Las Vegas and Colorado properties to be cash flow positive on the basis of their making enough money to pay salaries, maintenance, and other operational costs
sounds like someone is trying to tell post-bankruptcy investors to circle round, keep the spokesman in a job
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 17:34:17 2009 CDT #
JBR says:
Fun with graphs, from the st louis fed (pdf)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20090401/mt_20090331.pdf
JBR Tue Mar 31 17:37:25 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
EHP, The only thing GS really tried to hedge was loss of influence. If you hedge against every possible scenario then you can never lose. Profits can only go up!
The OCC needs to add a sixth category of derivative product, lobbyists.
Mandatory Patriot Bond Tue Mar 31 17:38:06 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pigpen,
Will make sure to read it. You have the same time series portfolio distribution charts that made the other one worthwhile and perhaps better accompanying text. Thanks for sharing
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 17:38:21 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Banks Starting To Walk Away on Foreclosures
Jingle mail may not save you!
reptillian Tue Mar 31 17:38:32 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
When will boeing start offering gurantees of making payments if the Airline goes out of business? Backed by the taxpayer of course.
http://blogs.chron.com/lorensteffy/2008/11/amr_continental_1.html
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 17:42:18 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Jingle mail may not save you!"
--------------
"YOU own the house!"
"NO, you do!"
"You had it first!"
"You took possession!"
"I gave it back"
"DID NOT!"
"DID, TOO!"
"DID NOT!"
"I know you are, but what am I?"
Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 17:46:09 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Amerouno
That already happens with the Export-Import Bank of the United States (www.exim.gov)
Basically a foreign airline buys a plane from Boeing, the taxpayer funded bank provides financing, and if the airline goes bust the bank bites the bullet and Boeing still gets paid
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 17:47:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I have to ask CR directly and hope he reads these comments.
Is it possible that the market is being manipulated by the banks that now are TARPed and gov't owned?
I see a hand up the puppet whenever the bank stocks go up, thus goosing the dow index higher, since the banks make up a large portion of the index, and so on days that President Obama wants to make it look good, for whatever reason, he has told Geithner to go into the market, using the fronts of GS, BAC, C, etc to buy each other's stock/calls OR to bring in the shorts by yanking on the supply of borrowed shares.
There is nothng to trade in this market. Obama is now the owner of Treibant/GM, he'll be going after the energy (oil, coal, nat gas) soon, the congress is after the pharma's, and the only real play is food or nasdaq.
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 17:48:01 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
Jingle mail may not save you!
Damn scary article reptilian. The one thing about it though that makes it different from most walk-aways is that it was a rental property by an owner who didn't maintain it during the foreclosure proceedings. Until they remove the house from your posession, it is the owner's responsibility to make sure it is properly maintained. Clearly, that didn't happen in this case. I can't imagine this would become a widespread phenomenon.
TCA Tue Mar 31 17:54:28 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
This is what keeps life interesting, so much of it transpires beyond the limits of what we can imagine...
energyecon Tue Mar 31 17:57:33 2009 CDT #
cd says:
GM Tells Dealers It’s 36% Short Consumer-Sales Goal
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asF1qyuW8qKs&refer=home
I'll run a sampling of credit quality fico scores at some large GM dealers and post later..you cant sell cars with dti in 50-60 range and pti in high 40's
my living comes from the industry and frankly I could care less...
cd Tue Mar 31 17:58:22 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Dawg, you out there?
California Will Need $11 Billion of Cash Borrowing (Update1)
By Michael B. Marois and William Selway
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- California will likely need to borrow $11 billion more cash in the fiscal year beginning July 1 as the most-populous U.S. state faces a growing deficit, the state’s controller said.
California will have exhausted all available cash by August along with $19 billion in internal funds and will likely need to borrow externally to bridge a $10.6 billion gap between projected monthly expenditures and revenue, state controller John Chiang, a Democrat, said in a news release.
California, home to one of every eight Americans, faces an $8 billion budget shortfall in the coming fiscal year even after Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers agreed last month to close a record $42 billion deficit with a package of tax increases, spending cuts and borrowing intended to leave the government with a surplus 16 months from now.
“The borrowing is going to have to happen fairly quick into the new fiscal year,” said Tom Dresslar, spokesman for California Treasurer Bill Lockyer.
Chaing said the state won’t need to borrow $1.5 billion that was planned in the current fiscal year because of earlier- than-expected federal economic stimulus money, higher-than- projected cash balances in funds available for internal borrowing and the sale of $500 million of cash-flow notes on March 23 to The Golden 1 Credit Union of Sacramento.
The so-called revenue-anticipation notes, maturing June 23, 2009, and paying 2.2 percent interest, raised money to help the state pay bills this year until tax revenue is received.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_tNDy8JsyW4&refer=home
energyecon Tue Mar 31 17:59:29 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"This is what keeps life interesting, so much of it transpires beyond the limits of what we can imagine..."
Yes sir, if we don't fall into the fallacy of believing that if something can't be understood by us, it doesn't exist.
Pavel Tue Mar 31 18:00:56 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Since the FHFA index only includes Fannie/Freddie transactions, wouldn't it be biased upward in a falling real estate market?
e.g. house bought @80LTV with a 650K loan is now purchased @80LTV with a $417K loan, but that decline is not paired so is not included.
i.e., it would not included a lot of "fallen jumbos", since the original transaction is not in their database?
ghostfacedinvestah Tue Mar 31 18:01:19 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Financial Rescue Nears GDP as Pledges Top $12.8 Trillion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armOzfkwtCA4&refer=home
New pledges from the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. include $1 trillion for the Public-Private Investment Program, designed to help investors buy distressed loans and other assets from U.S. banks. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.
thanks pigmen for making life harder for my child...if you ever decide to travel to bayarea, please call me so I can kick the living you know what out of you...
rant off
cd Tue Mar 31 18:06:22 2009 CDT #
nades says:
cd - missed your post! cheers! ;)
Parent Post
nades Tue Mar 31 18:17:38 2009 CDT #
cd says:
nades, its probably better to double up on good links and posts with the award winning JSEATSMYPOSTSKIT...cheers to you!
Parent Post
cd Tue Mar 31 18:26:15 2009 CDT #
nades says:
LOL! some of mine dissapear but i havent been able to figure out why it happens either... first i thought it was cause i closed the browser too soon or something or refreshed too soon... that didnt seem to be it tho...
:)
Parent Post
nades Tue Mar 31 18:37:10 2009 CDT #
nades says:
From the zerohedge post http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SdIhwA6u_JI/AAAAAAAABno/XVlkEv-w8rM/s1600-h/occ2.JPG
Dios Mio!
Of course we all know that GS is always on the winning side of the trade.
Go long GS (via far out calls) they could make a killing if this works out for them. A f'in killing if not all you lose is the premium.
.................
nades Tue Mar 31 18:10:51 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
CD - THANKS!
crispy and cole Tue Mar 31 18:12:47 2009 CDT #
nades says:
The following table details how the Fed and the government have committed the money on behalf of American taxpayers over the past 20 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
nades Tue Mar 31 18:16:49 2009 CDT #
lawn grass says:
I think everything hit bottom in 1933. It took until October 2008 for us to get broadband internet connection.<img src="../../extra/tiny_mce/plugins/emotions/img/smiley-cool.gif" title="Cool" border="0" alt="Cool"/>
lawn grass Tue Mar 31 18:17:53 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
energyecon,
Easier to build a bridge from LA to Hawaii, than one to cover a $10.6bn budget deficit
0 33 35 52 61 67 88
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 18:18:39 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Comparison: OECD and "More Adverse" Scenarios
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/comparison-oecd-and-more-adverse.html ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Tue Mar 31 18:19:44 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=EURISK
http://www.newsfrettir.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=295:the-fishing-industry-in-fact-bankrupt&catid=52:fishing-industry&Itemid=120
Icelandic Krona is falling again, Fish prices are falling, Importers burning cash fast, looks like that IMF loan isn't going to help What a ridiculous society we must live in. The problems we face are not that bad, it's merely the way we insist on dealing with them. Think about it, our biggest worry is overproduction/overcapacity
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 18:20:59 2009 CDT #
Amerouno says:
Export-Import Bank. Boeing certainly qualifies as a small business requiring subsidized insurance. Yet another scam to defraud the taxpayer. Thanks for the info EHP.
Amerouno Tue Mar 31 18:21:54 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Eerie how closely the blue line fits over the grey. Eerie and scary.
Hal Tue Mar 31 18:45:41 2009 CDT #
kidbuck says:
<!--StartFragment-->
<!--StartFragment-->
The acceleration in the rate of decline in the US Case-Shiller 20-city house price index is a bit disappointing ...
Not if you have been priced out of the housing market for the last 5 years.
<!--EndFragment-->
<!--EndFragment-->
kidbuck Tue Mar 31 20:56:49 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I gave up on Goldman last week. Bank nationalization next summer before the midterm elections.
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 21:34:53 2009 CDT #
END