Comments for New Home Sales: Just above Record Low
GrandOldTurkey says:
Furst?
GrandOldTurkey Wed Mar 25 09:20:48 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/445786135583749959
CRbot Wed Mar 25 09:21:12 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Does anyone know what kicked the USD hard ?
bearly Wed Mar 25 09:21:48 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
This is not your father's or grandfather's recession. It remains to be seen whether it is your great-grandfather's recession.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 25 09:22:10 2009 CDT #
ac says:
That second graph really puts this explosive rebound into perspective. Thanks CR.
ac Wed Mar 25 09:23:25 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
So without the revision to the prior month, is there an increase Month Over Month?
And ignoring that question, with the seasonal trend of increasing Month Over Month sales in the Spring, this looks like the typical Jan/Feb pattern since the residential real estate market turned...thanks CR for the excellent charts as always!
energyecon Wed Mar 25 09:23:43 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Does anyone know what kicked the USD hard ?"
Ben started purchasing the long end of the yield curve today. That is only thing I can think of off the top of my head.
RockyR Wed Mar 25 09:24:50 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
ac, I kept staring at that graph - looking for the rebound! At first I thought I forgot to add February ... ROFLOL ... it is definitely there. You just need really good eyesight to see it! Explosive ..
best wishes
Calculated Risk Wed Mar 25 09:25:33 2009 CDT #
ac says:
ac, I kept staring at that graph - looking for the rebound! At first I thought I forgot to add February ... ROFLOL ... it is definitely there. You just need really good eyesight to see it! Explosive ..
best wishes
That 4th graph is terrifying though.
325 months of supply!
ac Wed Mar 25 09:26:57 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
"325 months of supply!"
About the same as immediately after the recessions of '74, '91, and '02. NBD.
One really interesting thing about that graph is that by all appearances, we missed a recession in '96-97. I wonder if this was because the dot-com bubble made folks feel wealthy and willing to go off and buy homes in spite of economic issues. Also, IIRC, this was prior to Greenspan's irrational exuberance quote.
IMO, the scariest thing in the graph was going into 2007 w/ 550 months worth of supply, but on the brighter side, we've burned off nearly half of that.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 10:11:16 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
explosive rebound
LOL! Quick copyright that before Kudlow steals it.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 25 09:27:00 2009 CDT #
krid says:
Rob Dawg says:Today, 10:22:10 AM“This is not your father's or grandfather's recession. It remains to be seen whether it is your great-grandfather's recession.
that's the toughest part of this whole thing... everyone is looking for the bounce that would show this to be cyclical... and man I wish I could put myself into that camp... but then reason sets in and you realize that we are witnessing truly unique events in our country's history... there is not a single event, number or stat that can be viewed through the prism of what has happened before.
krid Wed Mar 25 09:27:17 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
no joke... I was flipping through my xm stations on monday and came to cnbc during kudlow's show.. within 30 seconds I here "is this the bottom.. [expert 1] what do you think"
ans: "yes the housing bottom is here.. the stock market is going to double in the next 12-18 months"
I was thinking that he got his math wrong and should have divided by 2 instead of multiplied
citiprank Wed Mar 25 09:30:46 2009 CDT #
Tupuli says:
The slight dip in 2001 (second graph) is kinda funny IMO.
It's like the construction industry briefly stopped for directions in the middle of a raging bar crawl.
Tupuli Wed Mar 25 09:30:54 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
Not enough history.
We are on an longer cycle.
Also....nothing unique about these events.
They are only unique to you. History, it's all about the history.
Darth Paulson Wed Mar 25 09:31:21 2009 CDT #
Tupuli says:
How high does the S&P have to get before 2010 puts become a sure thing?
Tupuli Wed Mar 25 09:32:42 2009 CDT #
Hysterian says:
How long before the Feb numbers are 'revised' (probably down)?
What was the Jan sales number before they revised it? In other words, how much 'noise' is in these numbers?
Hysterian Wed Mar 25 09:36:06 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
lots of noise in the numbers, but Jan was revised up from 309 to 322.
Parent Post
Dirk van Dijk Wed Mar 25 10:54:12 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
I think the real problem is that everyone is trying to figure out how to get back to what we used to have.. instead of talking about what system we SHOULD have.. big difference there
We need to re-surrect a few guys.... put andrew jackson and teddy roosevelt in charge of cleaning out the crooks... and eisenhower in charge of rebuilding afterwards
citiprank Wed Mar 25 09:36:20 2009 CDT #
Hangtown says:
This report is BS. My local fishwrap continues to list more and more NOD's everyday. And they are deep into Prime territory.
Hangtown Wed Mar 25 09:37:47 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Wow, good thing starts were up, as we can't let that excess supply of new houses be worked off.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Wed Mar 25 09:39:03 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
Wow, if you read the MSM, the new home sales and durable goods reports were terrific. If you actually look at the details (what happened to durable goods in Jan) and the YoY level of new home sales last year, its a completely different story.
Good thing Wall St just reads the MSM.
iceman Wed Mar 25 09:39:11 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
damn. didn't realize how close we're to dow 8K.
Basel Too Wed Mar 25 09:41:07 2009 CDT #
ac says:
We could make our 840 target today. Especially with all that short interest out there.
ac Wed Mar 25 09:41:30 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Who the heck is building a house right now? I mean really.. we are going to have once in a lifetime opptys in the used real-estate market quite soon.....
Wait a minute.. forget I even asked that.. .I'm assuming people are rational.. my fault
citiprank Wed Mar 25 09:41:42 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Step 1: Goose the numbers, revise down later.
Step 2: Stock market goes up.
Step 3: Outrage contained.
Max Wed Mar 25 09:43:35 2009 CDT #
krid says:
Darth Paulson... what depression do you think this one most closely resembles. I'll be honest, my history isn't so good prior to the 20th century. Give me some events to google.
krid Wed Mar 25 09:43:37 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
And Hi-rise condo's are not included...Probably not a TRULY significant part of the market in NYC or the SF Bay area anyway...
Tom Stone Wed Mar 25 09:44:19 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"Does anyone know what kicked the USD hard ?"
Reuters reported that Geithner is considering the IMF SDR proposal with China. Then CNBC showed the video of what he actually said. Gold and foreign currencies spiked.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 09:44:25 2009 CDT #
nades says:
This guy is a f'in idiot....
Parent Post
nades Wed Mar 25 10:00:12 2009 CDT #
shill says:
Boy that un-employment number for Friday must be enormous, to have this kind of " BASELESS " run up.
shill Wed Mar 25 09:46:15 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Grab your nuts and buy some shorts!
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 10:14:14 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
I'm trying (hard) to feel empathy with those home builders who run small businesses. It must be like being in an apparently endless desert with no water or beer. In their shoes, I'd be looking at a new occupation for a temporary or permanent source of income. Even remodels and REO reconstruction won't save most of them.
They did well in bubble times, but they will be punished far in excess of anything reasonable.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 25 09:46:18 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
With almost 360 months of inventory, there will be another new 30 year old house waiting for us when we get this one paid off.
reptillian Wed Mar 25 09:46:55 2009 CDT #
Stuart says:
Much of the MSM on this data is criminally negligent.... OMG.... CNBC..for shame. >:o
Stuart Wed Mar 25 09:47:01 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
we need more demand... what's the solution... have more babies? Massive immigration? LOL.. or maybe we should do what Elvis (what ever happened to that guy.. he was hilarious) said and bulldoze houses... .LOL
citiprank Wed Mar 25 09:48:16 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Increasing immigration would probably result in what is called a right half plane zero in control theory. Their cheap labor would actually put people out of work here, thus lowering demand at first, before eventually adding to net demand. Developing confidence and getting money into people's hands is the fastest way to stimulate demand; that, and encouraging inflationary expectations.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 10:17:45 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'NSA, 27 thousand new homes were sold in February 2009; the previous low was 29 thousand in February 1982'
And to think that the American population is considerably larger than in 1982 - and do keep in mind what a typical mortgage interest rate in 1982 was.something like 15%.
This isn't going to be like a depression, this is going to be something else - something on the order of this - 'In May 1716 the Banque Générale Privée ("General Private Bank"), which developed the use of paper money, was set up by Law. .... In August 1717, he bought the Mississippi Company, to help the French colony in Louisiana. .... In the same year Law floated the Mississippi Company as a joint stock trading company called the Compagnie d'Occident (of which Law was named as Chief Director) which was granted a trade monopoly of the West Indies and North America. The bank became the Banque Royale (Royal Bank) in 1718, meaning the notes were guaranteed by the king. The Company absorbed the Compagnie des Indes Orientales, Compagnie de Chine, and other rival trading companies and became the Compagnie Perpetuelle des Indes on 23 May 1719 with a monopoly of commerce on all the seas. The system however encouraged speculation in shares in 'The Company of the Indies' (the shares becoming a sort of paper currency) and inflation. The system was based on Law trading shares in the Mississippi Company in return for government debt. The Banque Royale was created by default as a result of Law attaining the majority of the government issued notes (debt). It effectively became the Central bank of France. In 1720 the bank and company were united and Law was appointed Controller General of Finances to attract capital. Law's pioneering note-issuing bank was extremely successful until it collapsed and caused an economic crisis in France and across Europe. The collapse was staved off by a constant trading off between national debt and shares of the Mississippi company. New shares were issued to dilute the value of each share, and the new capital was used to purchase more government notes. The speculation continued to build, and the company's two branches, the trading arm and the bank arm, collapsed simultaneously.
Law exaggerated the wealth of Louisiana with an effective marketing scheme, which led to wild speculation on the shares of the company in 1719. In February 1720 it was valued for a very high future cash flow at 10,000 livres. Shares rose from 500 livres in 1719 to as much as 18,000 livres in the first half of 1720, but by the summer of 1720, there was a sudden decline in confidence, leading to a 97 per cent decline in market capitalization by 1721. Predictably, the 'bubble' burst at the end of 1720, when opponents of the financier attempted en masse to convert their notes into specie. By the end of 1720 Orleans dismissed Law, who then fled from France.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Law_(economist)#Mississippi_Company
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 09:49:04 2009 CDT #
S says:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs&feature=player_embedded
prob been posted ten times but it is worth watching over and over and over
S Wed Mar 25 09:50:08 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
Much of the MSM on this data is criminally negligent...
I didn't watch the press conference last night, I saw these headlines: an NBC reporter asking Obama shy he hasn't asked the American people for sacrifice; Obama used a television for script rather than a teleprompter; and Obama's people passed out blackberries before the address.
Sexy Derivative Wed Mar 25 09:51:17 2009 CDT #
Tupuli says:
@citiprank
Large-scale natural disasters in FL or CA might work.
The "big one" couldn't come at a better time.
Tupuli Wed Mar 25 09:51:56 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Timmay need to read the script more closely.
[NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar fell sharply Wednesday following comments by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who said that the U.S. is "quite open" to China's suggestion of moving towards a Special Drawing Right (SDR) linked currency system, said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT. Meg Browne, a strategist at Browne Brothers Harriman, said that the market has "blown this [the comments] way out of proportion. [President] Obama has said that there's no need for another reserve currency. To use the SDR as a new reserve currency is really a stretch." ]
bearly Wed Mar 25 09:52:42 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
This is trending like last year, hard to call a bottom here. I bet low interest rates couldn't possibly have anything to do with this.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 09:52:43 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Poor AIG employee is resigning from FP division
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/25/opinion/25desantis.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th
Comrade Kristina Wed Mar 25 09:52:45 2009 CDT #
JP says:
Wow, if you read the MSM, the new home sales and durable goods reports were terrific.
I checked quickly this morning and came to the conclusion that things were popping up. Then I came here.
I wish you guys would stop raining reality on my turnaround fantasies.
JP Wed Mar 25 09:52:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
EU presidency: US economic plans 'a road to hell'
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_eu_us_economy
Uh-Huh
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 09:52:51 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
its crazy.. yahoo finance is spinning this as a great report because new home sales "rose unexpectedly last month"... they just forgot to mention that is a huge decrease from Feb 2008 and the increase in Feb from Jan is expected not unexpected....
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 09:54:13 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
we need more demand... what's the solution... have more babies? Massive immigration? LOL.. or maybe we should do what Elvis (what ever happened to that guy.. he was hilarious) said and bulldoze houses... .LOL -citiprank
I suppose we could put people to work making toothpicks out of the lumber. Oops that's treated lumber, probably poisonous...
Doc at the Radar Station Wed Mar 25 09:55:54 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Like the EU should talk... they made all those loans to eastern europe... denominated in euros.. and now everying is going to default as eastern european currencies collapse
citiprank Wed Mar 25 09:56:52 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
THE BULL IS HERE TO STAY!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Wed Mar 25 09:57:23 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
THE BULL IS HERE TO STAY!
Surely you meant: THE BULL IS HERE TO SLAY!
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 25 09:59:44 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
or the bs is here to stay
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 10:11:54 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Oh, the BS is definitely here to stay!
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 10:19:06 2009 CDT #
steelhead says:
It's the stage of grief called bargaining, we are a long way off from acceptance of the current and future economic reality.
steelhead Wed Mar 25 10:00:54 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
THE BULL IS HERE TO STAY
Here are the bear market rallies that occurred during the Great Depression.
November 1929 - April 1930: +48%
June 1930 - September 1930: +12%
December 1930 - February 1931: +21%
May 1931 - June 1931: +27%
October 1932 - November 1931: +35%
July 1932 - September 1932: +72%
popeye Wed Mar 25 10:01:52 2009 CDT #
krid says:
Can someone tell me, why the blackberries at the press conference?
krid Wed Mar 25 10:01:57 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
THE BULL (excrement)sic IS HERE TO STAY!
Guest Wed Mar 25 10:02:52 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
It's also right before spring, when sales ALWAYS tick up a bit. If spring sales are weak this year compared to last year (not last month), then we ain't at the bottom yet. Sorry.
Mannwich Wed Mar 25 10:04:39 2009 CDT #
JT says:
And new home starts increased last month?
JT Wed Mar 25 10:06:32 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..................eight handle today?..............
Jay D. Wed Mar 25 10:06:36 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
After 3/31 (mutual fund dress-up expiration date for Q1), it's time to go all-in short again.
Mannwich Wed Mar 25 10:10:31 2009 CDT #
MS says:
Kristina-
He may not have been a part of the CDS fiasco however he knew full well it was going on and said nothing about it. You don't get to his level and not know....
Nice try at trying to distance himself though...some will buy it....Ritholz, in typical fashion, doesn't take a side....just sort of leaves it hanging...
Ciao
MS
MS Wed Mar 25 10:12:22 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who said that the U.S. is "quite open" to China's suggestion of moving towards a Special Drawing Right (SDR)
Don't blame Timmay. When you're so used to kowtowing to China on various issues (Fannie/Freddie debt, etc..) its hard to change your habits. China embodies the Golden Rule: He who has the gold, rules.
iceman Wed Mar 25 10:13:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Though OT, some interesting information from Reuters -
'"Individual producers of chocolate products are seeing massive declines of sales of up to and sometimes above 10 percent in volumes," Andreas Christiansen said on Wednesday.
"Exports from western European countries, the leading area of cocoa consumption, into the rest of the world are suffering even more."
East European and Russian chocolate producers traditionally import semi-finished cocoa products as ingredients from Germany and elsewhere in west Europe.
"Some producers are loosing almost 100 percent of their exports to Central/Eastern Europe and Russia after their currencies devaluated drastically against the euro and dollar," he said.
"We are told some Polish and Hungarian chocolate producers are suffering sales falls of 50 percent."
Unsold European stocks of cocoa products had risen sharply, he said.
"There are large volumes of unsold cocoa products in Europe," he said.
"The warehouses are full, we estimate that we have unsold inventories of cocoa products, that is mainly cocoa butter and cocoa mass, of about 70,000 tonnes in Europe. Unsold inventories held as a buffer are normally around 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes."
This had caused a dramatic drop in prices for physical delivery of cocoa products in Europe at a time when London cocoa futures have soared, he said.'
What makes this interesting is this -
'The dramatic rise in London cocoa futures since autumn 2008 was increasingly failing to reflect fundamental factors in Europe such as rising inventories, falling production and falling European cocoa product exports, he said.
A closely watched indication of cocoa supply, the arrival figures for cocoa beans in Ivory Coast ports, were no longer reflecting volumes available on international markets, he said.
Although top grower Ivory Coast's bean exports were down on the year, exports of semi-finished cocoa products have risen sharply.
There was frustration that London cocoa prices were increasingly set by financial investment rather than fundamental factors.
"We need more transparency in the London cocoa market to provide us with a proper basis to calculate prices," he said.'
http://www.flex-news-food.com/pages/22821/Chocolate/Cocoa/Confectionery/eu-cocoa-stocks-rise-chocolate-sales-fall.html
Posters here keep discussing 'price' as if it is intrinsic. But physical disruptions in entire segments of world trade are going to be much more destructive than any monthly sales report - which will be repeatedly revised, if history is any guide, even if it concerns supposedly durable goods.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 10:13:13 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
That letter is hilarious, Kristina. What an asshat.
Sexy Derivative Wed Mar 25 10:14:57 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
...............China economy has bottomed: central bank adviser.....................................
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE52O18P20090325
...............a month ago I posted same thing , now chinese gov. officials confirm this............
Jay D. Wed Mar 25 10:15:29 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
How many other people are smelling a rat? Almost every government economic release in the last week has come with a downward revision to the previous number: new home sales, factory orders, FHFA home price index.
A cynic might suggest these numbers are manipulated, and might be one of the reasons Judd Gregg refused the Commerce job.
ghostfacedinvestah Wed Mar 25 10:16:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wow - where would any Czech get the idea that telling a superpower something resembling the truth will get you anything but springtime for Praha?
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 10:17:43 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"A cynic might suggest these numbers are manipulated, and might be one of the reasons Judd Gregg refused the Commerce job"
Do you really need to ask the question?
Broward Horne Wed Mar 25 10:19:16 2009 CDT #
Paradigm Lost says:
Krid: I have a feeling that this panic will turn into one for the history books with unique aspects belonging to it alone. But so far, it seems to most resemble the depression of 1873.
Check this out (hope this link works): The Real Great Depression
Paradigm Lost Wed Mar 25 10:19:54 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"The report also showed that the median sales price of new houses sold in February was $200,900, down 18% from $245,300 a year ago."
Since foreclosures wouldn't account for any of this decrease, what would? Builder close-outs?
Black Star Ranch Wed Mar 25 10:20:01 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Since foreclosures wouldn't account for any of this decrease, what would? Builder close-outs?
Perhaps, but more likely FHA limits are eliminating housing above $417K/625K
Basel Too Wed Mar 25 10:22:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Why don't Americans have the balls to do this?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-former-rbs-chief-attacked/story.aspx?guid={9D4F3866-CCD7-4919-A029-5B3FF765D345}&siteid=yahoomy
BTW I am Canadian :)
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 10:23:38 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
So he fixes his house. Psychological torment is more effective; let him know you're going to do it; just not when. It's the suspense that's most effective.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 10:52:38 2009 CDT #
Paradigm Lost says:
(Sigh...) Well that link didn't work. Google historian Scott Reynold Nelson, The Real Great Depression.
Are we using the same code to display links? The last several times I've tried it hasn't worked.
Paradigm Lost Wed Mar 25 10:24:19 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
BSR,
No mystery just lower prices. There's a lot of margin in new houses. In addition to lower margins average size and amenities are surely smaller as well. No more his and hers bidets in the travertine marble master throne room.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 25 10:26:03 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"There was frustration that London cocoa prices were increasingly set by financial investment rather than fundamental factors.
"We need more transparency in the London cocoa market to provide us with a proper basis to calculate prices," he said.' "
The _chocolate_ market is dysfunctional? They've gone TOO FAR.
Bob Dobbs Wed Mar 25 10:28:33 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Anonymous (the Canadian) says:
Today, 8:23:38 AM
“Why don't Americans have the balls to do this?
The answer is clear:
*I recall Bono on Larry King years ago defining the difference between American and Irish thinking. The American looks at the big house on the hill and says, wistfully, “Someday, that’ll be mine.” The Irishman looks at the big house on the hill and says, “Someday I’m going to get that bastard!”
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 10:29:47 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
*I recall Bono on Larry King years ago defining the difference between American and Irish thinking. The American looks at the big house on the hill and says, wistfully, “Someday, that’ll be mine.” The Irishman looks at the big house on the hill and says, “Someday I’m going to get that bastard!”
----------------------------------------------------
Yes, well now that Bono has the big house-would he state the same thing today?
Canadian Anon-The Robespierre approach may not be useful here in this society. This is NOT Scotland or Ireland -different kind of animal. Maybe 'Mericans are smarter than you give them credit for my northern brother...If I read my Canadian news correctly I think you may have your own issues going on....
----------------------------------------------------
Parent Post
Guest Wed Mar 25 11:15:07 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
Definitely, new homes are now being built smaller. Turns out 2 adults and 2 kids don't need 4000 sq ft. Hoocodanode?
iceman Wed Mar 25 10:29:50 2009 CDT #
wally says:
That is quite an amazing stairstep pattern in the first graph... as regular as clockwork year-on-year since 2005. Measured, equal, unrelenting steps down.
wally Wed Mar 25 10:29:52 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
MS and Sexy Derivative, the wingnuts are lapping up it up like kittens to warm milk. I found it on another forum this morning being used to show how the evil government is picking on hardworking AIG employees...PUKE.
Comrade Kristina Wed Mar 25 10:30:28 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....much of the new homes market currently being sold I'm sure is mostly left-over stock - not reflecting smaller sq. footage nor less upgrades. The new homes being sold here are ALL left-over model homes for tracts finally throwing in the towel.
Black Star Ranch Wed Mar 25 10:30:47 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
LONDON - Vandals attacked the home of former Royal Bank of Scotland head Fred Goodwin early Wednesday, smashing windows at the house of the ex-CEO whose $1.2 million US annual pension has prompted public outrage.
adornosghost Wed Mar 25 10:31:17 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Safire, 1998: Don’t Bank On It
CRbot Wed Mar 25 10:31:41 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
You know.... that RBS CEO vandalism is understandable.. if the govt refuses to protect the people.. they will eventually do it themselves
citiprank Wed Mar 25 10:32:00 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Comrade Kristina... I think the wingnuts have run their course... most of the sane republicans left their party long ago... sadly we are just going to have to accept that 20-30% of this country just think whatever rush limbaugh tells them to....
What we really need is a real opposition party.. I would love to see the more libertarian crowd take over the republican party,... but right now the party is fiscally irresponsible and socialiy conservative.. which is pretty muich the opposite of what a libertarian would fight for.
Just wait until 2012... the republicans will almost certainly nominate some whack-job disaster canidate.. jindal or palin or huckabee.. and then be shocked when the get 30-35% of the vote
citiprank Wed Mar 25 10:35:39 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
if the govt refuses to protect the people.. they will eventually do it themselves
So we're all Irish now?
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 10:36:07 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
lol sportsfan... maybe we are.....
I guess there's a very thin line between terrorist and freedom fighter.. all depends on your point of view
citiprank Wed Mar 25 10:37:27 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
there's a very thin line between terrorist and freedom fighter.. all depends on your point of view
History teaches the only difference between them is who won and who lost.
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 10:39:04 2009 CDT #
DreadLetterDay says:
Nonono...
Dude bombs me or my buddy = Criminal terrorist
My buddy bombs some dude = Freedom fighter
Parent Post
DreadLetterDay Wed Mar 25 10:44:35 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
i weep for sportsfan's Pac-10 8-)
Basel Too Wed Mar 25 10:41:30 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
mmm VIX creeps up (w/w)
Barley Wed Mar 25 10:43:09 2009 CDT #
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Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Wed Mar 25 10:43:10 2009 CDT #
MS says:
it's just a little obvious, to me, that the "whoosh" of the last three weeks began so that the quarter end looks better than the February month print. Hell...what better way to instill confidence than an almost 1k point run upwards?...sure it all depends on where it settles next tuesday however I did say (in early march) I would eat my computer (byte by byte) if the indexes closed below the Feb. month end print.
They are creating the space to drop the market into when the actual results start to be released for Q1. I'll still eat my computer if (by month end April) we have had a closing below Feb.'s month end.
The events of the last two weeks have pushed my window for any type of recovery (if it even happens) to well into 2012.......that's not to say the market won't get a stiffy on the continual poor numbers (both actual and manipulated).....I speak in terms of things that actually spark recovery and not inflating our way out of this mess.
Ciao
MS
MS Wed Mar 25 10:43:35 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Hey, combine this with the DG numbers and this is the first real positive day of economic news we have had in a long time. Yes it is only a small step up from the bottom, and is at an extraordinarrly low level, but at least the direction is right. I dont want to get giddy or anything, but have to say that todays numbers are more encouraging than anything I have seen in a long long time.
Dirk van Dijk Wed Mar 25 10:44:31 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Thank you, Basel Too, but I've lived too long to weep for them any more.
The Arizona kids, though, showed what can happen when you motivate a team by splashing across the nation the opinion that they didn't deserve to be there.
I wonder if there's a lesson we can learn from that?
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 10:45:09 2009 CDT #
optimal says:
clearly there is a huge supply overhang if you look at months of supply for new homes (12.2 months) and existing homes (9.3 months). These number, I believe, overstat the problem -- credit is not flowing, so purchasing a home has become difficult, particularly for first-time home buyers. The months of supply numbers should drop v. dramatically later this year and into next year. Any thoughts?
btw, the y-axis on the inventory graph is mislabeled.
optimal Wed Mar 25 10:52:33 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
"Wow - where would any Czech get the idea that telling a superpower something resembling the truth will get you anything but springtime for Praha?"
what about a flailing, rabid, dying superpower?
Comrade Janosik Wed Mar 25 10:53:31 2009 CDT #
black dog says:
New homes in my locale -which has the third highest foreclosure rate in the state- has come to a complete stop. A couple of years ago pricing was at a minimum $125/ft. Currently our local mr. potter is hoovering up the remains at $49/ft. Ouch. Good luck competing with that pricing mr. builder
black dog Wed Mar 25 10:53:50 2009 CDT #
All Fall Down says:
RE: letter of resignation
Dear Mr. Jake DeSantis.
Happy to hear you are no longer employed. Neither are my younger brothers, my sister and her husband. You and your friends that have raped this country - all the while protesting that you did nothing wrong - will be fortunate to escape this mess with your lives. Find a dark corner of another country and hide there for the next 25 years while we try to undo the mess that wall street created. My wish is for you to watch your family and coworkers lose weight from stress and lack of nourishment. I'm now spending my savings preventing that from happening to my family members.
I have no pity for you, you sorry SOS.
All Fall Down Wed Mar 25 10:59:42 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
Why don't Americans have the balls to do this?
What balls? They broke some windows in the middle of the night.
He was probably in his Costa del Sol villa at the time.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Wed Mar 25 11:00:16 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Sportsfan, dont weep for the pac 10 who has more ncaa championships than any conference...if they would let USC play against those SEC teams in the natl championships over last 3 years...you would have had 3 additional....of course that won't happen with the media bias...trust me on this one...no team from the SEC could match up with them nfl players over there....watch the first and 2nd round of draft....
manipulation is just not a govt. game....
cd Wed Mar 25 11:05:27 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Folks, the second inventory graph has a mislabled Y axis, it is not 330 months of supply, it is 330,000 houses. Months of supply are 12.2, down from 12.9 in Jan. Still rediculously high, and well above the peak in any other downturn. But use your friggin heads, even CR can occasionally slip up in making his awsome graphs. Do you really think there are 27.5 years worth of supply out there?
Dirk van Dijk Wed Mar 25 11:12:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"Who the heck is building a house right now? I mean really.. we are going to have once in a lifetime opptys in the used real-estate market quite soon....."
Beleive it or not, we are considering it. We are presently renting, and will soon move to a bigger and cheaper rental that is closer to work. The money we will save on gas and rent will go to our already big downpayment. It's newer construction so the utility should be cheaper as well
Everything in the area is old and crap and in need of major remodel for asthetics, and then you have an old house that has foundation problems, old HVAC, and old and minimal insulation to deal with.
The newer stuff has many of the same issues, but usally bigger so you can have a bigger utility bill to go along with it..
The foundation issues can be fixed with good engineering, it's just up to you to decide to you use good engineering to fix it after it's broken, or build it right the first time.
I suspect as cheap as houses may get, land is going to get far cheaper, and building materials won't likely get expensive, and labor and contractors are sure getting cheap fast.
We have lots of time to decide, but it's an option worth exploring.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 11:58:28 2009 CDT #
Jon says:
Has anyone done a second derivative test on the data? Visually it appears that the rate of decrease on the 45-year New Home Sales and Inventory charts haven't changed very much... Plus according to the NSA data, February is almost always higher because it's warmer and more people are out and buying. The seasonally adjusted monthly new home sales numbers for January and February are similar enough that they are most likely within the margin of error, i.e. statistically there is no difference between them.
Jon Wed Mar 25 16:32:44 2009 CDT #
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