Comments for "The Mega-Bear Quartet"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4843087212314437680
CRbot Sat Mar 28 10:52:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
how long did it take to pre-crash levels? that would also be a good chart
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 10:55:01 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Sorry, posted on the wrong thread. From yesterday’s threads…
1. I have answered the Deflationary Depression forecast question too many times and there isn’t much more that I can add.
2. Re my forecast of the election of American Hitler, my view is that there isn’t anything else that will get rid of the banking and finance Crooks that have the firm control of the govt. I see military coup and dictatorship as less likely, even though that would be preferable. Does anyone have a better idea as to how the banking and finance Crooks, a plague for the US economy and the hardworking people, would be gotten rid of? America presently has a very corrupt system and something would happen as people suffer mostly due to no fault of their own. Banking and finance Crooks are the main cause of the problems and the depression we already are in but wouldn’t feel for another year or so. No Greater Depression no American Hitler. Let us see if our experts, led by Bernanke, can avoid the depression. I am convinced that they can’t. Any recovery over the next year or two wouldn’t last longer than two quarters.
My political forecasts have 10-20 years time horizon and economic and investment forecasts 3-5 years. I ma known to be early.
Jas
Jas Sat Mar 28 10:58:12 2009 CDT #
Tupuli says:
Jas, point us at a page that summarizes your deflationary depression scenario.
Tupuli Sat Mar 28 11:00:42 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Dam I thought we were in for a song...your tease us CR
Barley Sat Mar 28 11:02:34 2009 CDT #
AM says:
me too. Especially since it occurred to me recently that it might be interesting to set the market's ups downs to music.
Parent Post
AM Sat Mar 28 14:20:02 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
I still find the rally/crash correlation with the tech bubble at 12-18 months quite compelling, which also looks like an acceleration/compression of the 18 -24 month jag in GD1.
In sum, the bottom cannot be in. For chartists. I'm not, but I'm also not a chartist momentum trader and that's where they're taking us.
Look out below.
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 11:03:50 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Bonds have now out-performed the Scam Market for the past 41 years, 1968-2009! (I will post a link when I get one).
Only morons put their money in the Scam Market since 1997 when the Scam Market became a bad (immoral, because it was feeding the Crooks) and dangerous place to put money. I coined the term Scam Lovers, more than 10 years ago, to mock the dopes.
Jas
Jas Sat Mar 28 11:03:51 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Does anyone have a better idea as to how the banking and finance Crooks...would be gotten rid of?"
----
Secession of a block of States.
It's interesting that this bear is worse than the Nikkei Crash. The NASDAQ crash washed out close to 25% of the IT workforce, close to the Great Depression numbers although concentrated in one industry. But I judge this crash to be worse than the NASDAQ crash based on my resume hit ratios and replies, and now it's broadly based.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 28 11:08:14 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Broward,
The last peaceful chance for secession was in 1850! Now, the central govt, controlled by a network of Crooks, is too powerful and would crush any rebellion. AMERICANS HAVE NEVER RESOLVED MAJOR CONFLICTS PEACEFULLY. No?
People forget that Hitler loved Germany as much as any and he was a genius, even though an evil one. Can't America produce an evil genius after years of misery at the hands of known banking and finance Crooks?
Please remember that a forecast is not a wish.
<font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">
Jas
</font></font><font size="3">
</font>
Parent Post
Jas Sat Mar 28 11:18:14 2009 CDT #
stock_regulator says:
This bear is not worse than the Nikkei - they only graphed Nikkei through 2000 if you extend until now you will see Nikkei at 25 year lows. That is scary.
Parent Post
stock_regulator Sat Mar 28 11:49:44 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Go to dshorts.com and see the whole thing, and it's even more interesting when you apply adjustments for inflation.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:24:20 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
We are tracking the great depression rather well.. aren't we?
Lucifer Sat Mar 28 11:08:26 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Not really, because we are on track to the Greater Depression. Bankers' Mishcief is an order of magnitude higher and we have an ego maniac, Bernanke, at the helm.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Sat Mar 28 11:21:05 2009 CDT #
blue says:
Charter files for prearranged bankruptcy
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090327/ap_on_bi_ge/charter_bankruptcy_filing
blue Sat Mar 28 11:09:21 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Jas, if you believe we are already in depression-what year "in" are we?
Student of History here, I've been watching this for 20 years with varying degrees of interest......trying to gain more knowledge of "complex systems"....
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 11:10:50 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
We are tracking the great depression rather well.. aren't we?
Depends on the meds you are taking. Or, in the case of Jas, the meds you are not taking but should.
Barley Sat Mar 28 11:10:51 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
uh-oh, those squiggly lines don't start at the same point in time
reptillian Sat Mar 28 11:13:34 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Barley,
Wonder how thoroughly a depression will destroy the canadian commodity and manufacturing based economy. Hope that wishful thinking, pride and bad decisions will then further sink the canadian economy.
Lucifer Sat Mar 28 11:15:18 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Jas - you really need to share these insights at Nakedcapitalism. They are way too sanguine and could do with some bracing JJ cold water on them.
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 11:23:43 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Does anyone have a better idea as to how the banking and finance Crooks...would be gotten rid of?"
Many states are already thinking along the lines of "an out" - and rightfully so. No amount of "fixing" will do. A total "relocalization" is the only remedy to this mess and the eradication of global financial interests. A 21st Century carpet-bagger might realize different reactions from people now vs. 140-years ago.
Black Star Ranch Sat Mar 28 11:24:46 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Jas,
I think the parallel breaks down if you consider what we have now is more Berlusconi than Weimar.
burnside Sat Mar 28 11:25:18 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
I DO THINK though that before this is over, many of our neighbors will be citizens from China & Japan.
Black Star Ranch Sat Mar 28 11:25:48 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Now, the central govt, controlled by a network of Crooks, is too powerful and would crush any rebellion"
--------
We can always hope. Remember, nuclear weapons are abundant, not particularly expensive to create and large # of rich people are losing their money. Previous successful revolutions usually have monied, alienated supporters.
This housing chart is interesting.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090327.htm?A
The rate-of-change in the drop-off is still accelerating. WOW. I was fairly sure that prices would reset to pre-2000 but it looks likely to reset back to 1982, the start of the current upcycle. Now I'm surprised.
Most people are worried about depression. I rate the odds of depression fairly high, well over 50%. In fact, it's not much a prediction now as it looks like we're already into it. I rate the chance of a complete collapse of the System in the 25% range. The accelerating downward rate-of-change is an ominous sign.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 28 11:27:56 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Thousands of people marched in Britain, France and Germany on Saturday to protest about the global economic crisis and urge world leaders to act on poverty, jobs and climate change at a G20 summit next week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ejsmineset%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 11:27:59 2009 CDT #
JP says:
On the graph: year 8-9 of Nasdaq is highly correlated with year 0-1 of S&P, because they are the same years.
JP Sat Mar 28 11:28:49 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
BSR - my neighbours are from China. Professor of politics and international relations, plus wife and random others who appear from time to time. He shows up on tv every now and then. I don't have a problem with any of that. I just wish his bamboo wouldn't migrate under the fence to my lawn and chop out my mower when it gets over a foot high.
The next servicing of the mower I'm thinking of seeking part-contribution.
Responsible stakeholder an all...
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 11:32:35 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Unfortunately you are all making sense...
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 11:33:31 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Magical Thinking -we're all making sense?? Uh oh. Time to up the surrealism quotient.
"Scottie, up the quotient! Full power!"
"Cap'n y'cannae change the laws of physics!"
"Scottie, either explain, or make it so, that's an order."
"Capn, the quantum theory of surrealism states that only a certain amount of it exists in the universe, albeit not constrained by entropy."
"Scottie, in layman's language please."
"Capn, the quantum of surrealism is already possessed by the Gov and Wall St and have exhausted our capacity to utilize the surrealism headroom."
"Scottie, stand by for the surrealism leverage protocols that we were always told were never to be activated. Now is the time, break glass and hit the switch, control desk far right, flashing red. Scottie, this is hyperdrive, buckle up..."
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 11:48:24 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
<tbody>
"Bonds have now out-performed the Scam Market for the past 41 years, 1968-2009! (I will post a link when I get one). "
Jas,
</tbody>
I have always read that stocks have outperformed bonds over most time intervals. Please cite evidence that supports yor opposite conclusion. I googled this link:
http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/stocksbonds.html
traderwalt Sat Mar 28 11:35:00 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
Jas,
have always read that stocks have outperformed bonds over most time intervals. Please cite evidence that supports your opposing conclusion. I googled this link:
http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/stocksbonds.html
traderwalt Sat Mar 28 11:36:15 2009 CDT #
eponymous says:
CHARTISM!!!
eponymous Sat Mar 28 11:40:16 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"I don't have a problem with any of that."
Nor do I. I point out though that the fabric of America is changing to such an extent and our "beloved" FedGov is being allowed to to the same as your neighbor's bamboo - invade your backyard largely hidden from view until damage is caused
Black Star Ranch Sat Mar 28 11:41:15 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
BSR - I've just caught up on your comment, nicely phrased. There's a great book from the 30s, I think by Lu Hsun called Weeds in the Garden of Government. It's really worth reading for governance and character failures in complex systems. He was waaay ahead of his time in one sense, but in another, these guys have been debating the system / person dichotomy for 2000 years.
Maybe I was channelling Lu Hsun!?
Wow, that would be a trip. And I'm not even from there.
Anyhow, there is no permanent answer because there cannot be one. There will be cycles of dealing with this problem, as Thomas Kuhn alludes to in a slightly different and narrower realm, but ultimately it's generation by generation dealing with the same problem.
How great is the 21st Century!?? I'm soo loving it. But what a problem child to bring up.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 12:11:10 2009 CDT #
TC says:
I wonder how the Indians feel about what you said.
Parent Post
TC Sat Mar 28 14:40:27 2009 CDT #
awgee says:
Can you imagine what that chart might look like if adjusted for inflation?
awgee Sat Mar 28 11:42:00 2009 CDT #
Sebastian says:
Counterpointer said: "...I just wish his bamboo wouldn't migrate under the fence to my lawn and chop out my mower when it gets over a foot high."
Some Round-Up should cure that, you could even apply it on your side of the fence so you've got plausible deniability. :)
(Or were you speaking metaphorically?)
Sebastian, Garden Hobbyist
Sebastian Sat Mar 28 11:50:11 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
This isn't looking well for any pacificist limited government (for a reason dammit!) types....
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 11:50:52 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
How come your grass is a foot tall before you mow it?
You could import some Pandas. If they'd let you.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 28 11:52:26 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Goats would work better. Pandas are too finicky, and protectec as well.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:25:33 2009 CDT #
egregious says:
Love the chart porn.
egregious Sat Mar 28 11:55:09 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
On the mowing, the bamboo takes off before the grass does. So in spring when I finally get around to the first mow, the bamboo is already a foot high.
Maybe there is a metaphor in here. Or at least some irony.
Regulatory Round-up on the other side of the fence first? Hmm.
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 11:59:17 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Here some thoughts to ponder, Jas. The Federal gov't, as we know it today, is largely chimera. It has massive military force which is mostly inapplicable to internal use, a workforce of a couple of million total, and massive credibility problems which are growing daily. It's only real power is psychological. The ratio of local law enforcement to population is 3 to 1000. In other words, a rebellion by 1% of the population outnumbers LEOs by 3:1. Add in the Feds and it's still 7 to 1000.
It now has numerous nuclear powers with a vested interest in seeing a deconstructed U.S. - Russia, China, N Korea, probably at least one Arab country... and several other countries which could supply a nuclear weapon in the right pretext - Pakistan, India, Israll.
If one weapon goes off in D.C., it's a game-changer, particularly if it can be traced back to American dissidents. The Feds would probably be able to identify the signature (unless a custom weapon was built) but what are they going to do? Launch a retaliation? Possible but not if there's already internal collusion or obstruction by our own military.
Based on Internet evolution, there's a been a growing "localization" movement for many years. Most people don't care about D.C., they care about their local county and city, which is how the original Constitution was intended to function.
The thing is much more fluid than it appears on the surface.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 28 11:59:54 2009 CDT #
Ethan says:
Broward Horne at 11:59
Except for income taxes, I've always thought my life was more affected by local (or state) government than by the feds. Garbage disposal, snow removal, local peace officers, landlord/tenant relations, sanitation inspections of grocery stores and restaurants, you name it. How am I directly affected by the federal government's ability to bomb some foreign country? Even real estate and sales taxes now that I am retired and have no big wage income.
Parent Post
Ethan Sat Mar 28 12:17:59 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
A couple of weeks ago, someone posted a chart for the entire dow run, from, like, a hundred years ago. It would be nice if it were posted again!! :) :* ;)
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 28 12:00:30 2009 CDT #
eponymous says:
Supply side bamboo. Deal with it. >:o
eponymous Sat Mar 28 12:03:14 2009 CDT #
MaryAnn says:
A Nobel for each poster on thread. Hub has been saying what Jas is saying for the past 20 years while a manager of bigggg retail outlet. Those sitting on corporate boards while being paid for name only while not watching the rape of the company is kinda like what is now going on at the VERY top of Goverment now.
MaryAnn Sat Mar 28 12:03:37 2009 CDT #
Noble says:
There was a time when Jas was considered to be on the lunatic fringe. I personally thought Jas was a little over the top myself. I have completely come around to Jas' way of thinking. I think the last straw for me has been the ongoing AIG recapitalization scam.
Once you start looking at the world with Jas' lens - its amazing what's out there.
Noble Sat Mar 28 12:10:44 2009 CDT #
Sebastian says:
Not really sure what these charts add to any serious discussion, since the stocks in the major indices *change*. For example, many of the financial stocks that were in the SP500 at the market top in October, 2007 and contributed to the cliff-diving in 2008 have been replaced by other stocks with better liquidity and fundamentals. So these "four bad bear" charts can only be considered for entertainment purposes only since they don't represent a consistent portfolio of stocks that's the same now as before.
Sebastian
Sebastian Sat Mar 28 12:11:23 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- like comparing apples to oranges? Excellent point!
Parent Post
notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 12:24:42 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Beam me up Scottie ! It's not just what is happening here:
Refer to Anon post @ 12:27 p.m.
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 12:12:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
“Essentially, Bank of America established a fully functional bank branch manned by its own representatives within Agape’s offices, which is contrary to normal banking practices,” the lawsuit said. As a result, the bank’s representatives had “actual knowledge” that Mr. Cosmo was “diverting money to his own account” and “engaging in virtually no legitimate business whatsoever.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/business/28ponzi.html?ref=business
One of the possible outcomes from the complete saturation of corruption is we all will become corrupt. The loss of integrity at every level of our society and the limited justice being doled out may be the death knell for any positive outcome to this crisis.
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 12:18:49 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Broward:
Here some thoughts to ponder, Jas. The Federal gov't, as we know it today, is largely chimera.
Like all governments, its primary residence is in the minds of the governed. the logistics are important but they follow after the moral aspect.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Sat Mar 28 12:21:19 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
id like to disagree with anonymus (whom eveer he is) from a previous thread
was said "
Anonymous says:
“The administration late yesterday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to bar New York and other states from enforcing their fair-lending and other consumer-protection laws against federally chartered banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCdEKIwbiPzQ&refer=home
Less then a 100 days and a victor has been crowned. It wasn't the American people.
------
NOT SO...read the entire bloomberg article
the casw was brought by the bush addministration
the current occ director is a hoildover from the bush administration and is not up for re appointment until next year
plus, bottom line, the court will hopefully decide this based on law and facts, not director Dugan political alliances,
it would be foolish for obama admin to pull the rung out from under a case that must be decided... at this late date
anon may be right BUT its far from clear the state verses fed reg issue is an obama thing
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 12:30:35 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
i have no idea why the java script instructions appeared next to my comentary ????
Parent Post
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 12:39:18 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
haloscan please come back to me
i promised ill treat you better this time
Parent Post
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 12:40:37 2009 CDT #
bill says:
Strange to cut that chart off after 10 years when the Nikkei is still down now after 20 years and near new lows. Though maybe not adjusted for inflation?
bill Sat Mar 28 12:38:03 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
mock, I think it isn't precisely partisan - at base it's finance. Spitzer used New York's jurisdiction to investigate matters many consider to be of national interest. Well, they are. But they're of interest on the state level as well, and federal inaction gave the NY AG an opening by default.
I think Cuomo has a similar take on proceedings, whatever the current administration's rationale may be.
burnside Sat Mar 28 12:38:21 2009 CDT #
ab initio says:
The scam of the looting of US taxpayers through the Fed has yet to really catch people's attention.
Now as expected we have the Treasury taking over all the Fed's Maiden Lane assets. Additionally the public rationalization for the Fed monetization program is to bring down mortgage rates as a way to reflate housing and mortgage assets - but in reality it is that there is insufficient demand for the tsunami of treasury issuances coming down. This would detonate the treasury market. So instead the Fed and other central banks (UK, Japan, Swiss) are embarking on a currency devaluation plan. At some point as foreign investors get spooked we will see capital controls to prevent the flight of capital out of our financial system.
Obama's economic management is identical to the Bush schemes - Wall Street over nation!
Defcon 1 is approaching!!!
ab initio Sat Mar 28 12:40:06 2009 CDT #
Wampeter of My Karass says:
My new favorite blog is Obama's Teleprompter's Blog.
All hail TOTUS! And check out the "Seal of the Teleprompter of the United States"
http://baracksteleprompter.blogspot.com/
Wampeter of My Karass Sat Mar 28 12:40:50 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
too bad bush never used a teleprompter...would have been a big improvement
btw in what year did obama invent the teleprompter
and how does he get the teleprompter to display his response to questions asked live at press conferences?
amazing...oh i know he pre arranges the Q and As with the reporters he calls on
Parent Post
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 12:44:45 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
"amazing...oh i know he pre arranges the Q and As with the reporters he calls on"
FWIW, it actually seemd that way at his last press conference, and it was even reported that the 13 or so questioners was hand selected by the Whitehouse. I'm not so sure it hasn't always been that way.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:31:05 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
EHP's weekend regulatory reform suggestion
Have the exchanges take over responsibility for short selling.
• No more worries about naked shorting
• Require owners' consent to allowing their shares to be lent out
• No more depending on the goodwill of your broker rehypothecation
• Have all brokers list their available inventory to short, with quotes for cost of borrowing
• Fewer forms to file for all involved
---
hong konger, it was late. you were leaving because it was late. we weren't even in an argument. it was a good conversation. no need to worry
EvilHenryPaulson Sat Mar 28 12:47:13 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
From the article MT references his disagreement:
"The administration late yesterday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to bar New York and other states from enforcing their fair-lending and other consumer-protection laws against federally chartered banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
The legal brief, which adopts the Bush administration’s position, is a setback for consumer and civil-rights groups that had urged President Barack Obama’s team to switch positions. The filing puts the administration at odds with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over the respective roles of state and federal regulators. The high court will hear arguments April 28.
“National banks are created by the government to serve federal purposes,” argued Solicitor General Elena Kagan, the Obama administration’s top courtroom lawyer. “Oversight of the banks is therefore principally entrusted to the United States.”"
At this point I believe there can't be too many regulatory agencies watching the FIRE industry. Concentrating power at the Federal level makes everything much easier to navigate. One set of rules, one set of regulators, one set of politicians to pay off. Must be a pain in the ass for the national banks to have to influence regulation at the state level. Probably expensive as well. So if you are arguing that the national banks need to be saved from spending the taxpayer dollars to ensure they get their way then I completely back your position that the national banks should only be governed by Fereral regulations.
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 12:47:36 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
mock - that was the craziest format dysfunction I've ever seen.
Well done! We have a benchmark!
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 12:48:59 2009 CDT #
blue says:
js-kit has been puking in the comments for a couple days now. It spits a bunch of stuff up like mock's post. HTML handles aren't being read in selected comments either. They show up as text.
blue Sat Mar 28 12:51:49 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
haloscan please come back
i tell ya, js-kit meant nothing to me
it wasnt love, it was just one handed keyboarding
besided, the hole time (sick, i mean sic)) i was thinking of you
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 12:52:59 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
It's a good thing we didn't elect McCain. I mean really, all those horrible things he would have done? Send more troops to Afghanistan, balloon the deficit, kowtow to the banksters, bailout Wall Street. Why he'd probably have to accommodate Pelosi even though he knew better. By now he'd probably even be pushing cap and trade carbon policy. The very idea of President McCain and the same old Washington politics is just unimaginable.
Rob Dawg Sat Mar 28 12:53:14 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
Rob Dawg
as a ardent obama supporter, im none the less forced by events to admitt much of what you said is true...getting harder to tell the difference between mc caine and obama on several issues
plus with mccain we would have had palin or uh she woulda had us (smile)
for me i hadd to vote obama cuase mccaine was smooching with phill gramm, in my book he and wendy being one of the chief archetects of our demise (not that i dont also blame clinton and reagan)
Parent Post
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 13:00:04 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
"as a ardent obama supporter, im none the less forced by events to admitt much of what you said is true...getting harder to tell the difference between mc caine and obama on several issues "
That was the problem a lot of Republicans had with him.....
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:35:59 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
LOL!
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:32:01 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Jskit's malfunctions are more interesting and also more annoying than haloscans.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 28 12:53:19 2009 CDT #
drey says:
great chart, CR. I really appreciate the historical perspective it provides.
Keep up the good work.
drey Sat Mar 28 12:53:27 2009 CDT #
scone says:
On the mowing, the bamboo takes off before the grass does. So in spring when I finally get around to the first mow, the bamboo is already a foot high.
Maybe there is a metaphor in here. Or at least some irony.
Regulatory Round-up on the other side of the fence first? Hmm.
C
.
Bamboo has aspiratons to world domination, like the Krynoid from "Seeds of Doom." It likes Round-Up, I swear. I've had good luck with a commercial-type whipper-snipper fitted with a blade rather than nylon.The only other cure I've seen is a root barrier, but plants are surprisingly clever getting around that. Or, you can dig the shoots when they're really young and eat them.Or get a goat to do it.
scone Sat Mar 28 12:53:44 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Is this in reference to 'real' bamboo or the stuff called Japanese Bamboo, which I suspect is a different critter. The later REALLY sucks, and has been reported to have spread roots under a 12 lane highway and sprung up on the other side. Also, I believe it has a much wider range, and grows up into Southern Canada.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:34:56 2009 CDT #
Tupuli says:
It's a good thing we didn't elect McCain. I mean really
Sorry Rob, Palin was simply untenable. Lots of people would have loved a divided government, but Palin + 80 year old guy was a bridge too far.
/didn't vote
Tupuli Sat Mar 28 12:57:27 2009 CDT #
Gr8F8 says:
I only voted for McCain because of Gov. Palin. Without Palin McSame would have gotten a hll of a lot of less votes. I won't debate who out of all of them was more qualified because no one ever wins those discusions.
Parent Post
Gr8F8 Sat Mar 28 14:14:18 2009 CDT #
eponymous says:
Pruning shears. Yes
Round - Up. No.
Round - Up is systemic. Its' toxicity may damage other assets.
Besides, Monsanto is a scary monster.
eponymous Sat Mar 28 13:02:38 2009 CDT #
BondsOfSteel says:
I think everyone here needs to get up, go outside for a walk, and have lunch in a park somewhere.
Yes... things are bad... and they're getting worse. They're not as bad as everyone thinks or that chart shows. While the stock asset prices from the NASDAQ crash mirrors the DOW in the GD, GDP/employment over the same period does not.
What we're seeing is more closly tied to the industrialization of BRIC than asset inflation/deflation bubbles in the US.
BondsOfSteel Sat Mar 28 13:05:12 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
counterpointer, thanks for the gold star
but as you know i dont have a clue wtf im doin
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 13:05:23 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Afghanistan.
Why?
Oil pipeline? Terrorist breeding/training ground? Opium supply? Geographical location!? Staging ground for controlling and pinning Pakistan between two forces?
All of the above?
The Brits, the Russians and now the US. Genius.
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 13:07:11 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Are there several varieties of Bamboo by the way?
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 13:08:45 2009 CDT #
Topher says:
Black Star Ranch
“"I don't have a problem with any of that."
“Nor do I. I point out though that the fabric of America is changing to such an extent and our "beloved" FedGov is being allowed to to the same as your neighbor's bamboo - invade your backyard largely hidden from view until damage is caused”
When planting bamboo along a fence you should dig down a couple of feet and place a metal liner in the planting soil to prevent the bamboo fron growing up on the other side of the fence into your neighbors backyard.
I think we need to put some metal between the crooks (politicians) and the people so they don’t pop up where they shouldn’t be so they can’t screw us anymore. Like in jail!
Topher Sat Mar 28 13:11:46 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
not that it matters, but heres a corrected version of the effup i wrote above with the java script commands deleted, i hope
mock turtle says:
Today, 10:30:35
“id like to disagree with anonymus (whom eveer he is) from a previous thread, he said "
“The administration late yesterday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to bar New York and other states from enforcing their fair-lending and other consumer-protection laws against federally chartered banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCdEKIwbiPzQ&refer=home
Less then a 100 days and a victor has been crowned. It wasn't the American people.
i say NOT SO... please read the entire bloomberg article
the case was brought by the bush addministration
the current occ director is a hold over from the bush administration and is not up for re appointment until next year
plus, the bottom line is, the court will hopefully decide this based on law and facts, not director Dugans political alliances,
it would be foolish for obama admin to pull the rung out from under a case that must be decided... especially at this late date
ok ok, anon may be right BUT its far from clear the state verses fed reg issue is an obama thing
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 13:13:09 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Cameras To Catch Speeders Cause Road Rage And Accidents
CRbot Sat Mar 28 13:13:48 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
mish's post about the spy cameras and license plates is right on
talks about medium and high tech ways to defeat
a simple low (or no) tech solution...put the tail gate down on your pick up truck...cameras are set for angles and distances which result in occlusion of plate from 45 degree angle line of sight top of pole down to street level :-$
Parent Post
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 13:25:34 2009 CDT #
Myr says:
That chart is highly deceptive, CR. True, at the end of 10 years, the Nikkei was off by "just" 52.5%. However, the Nikkei has continued it's plunge over the following 10 years. The low, as of now, was back in Oct '08 when the Nikkei hit 6995 which was 82% off from the peak. 19 years and off 82%...ouch.
Myr Sat Mar 28 13:14:46 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
At least they had time to become accustomed to it. We might -82% much sooner.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:39:01 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Afghanistan? Because we're already there.
Opium? We should buy it. Morphine is in short supply globally. Heroin isn't the only opium byproduct.
burnside Sat Mar 28 13:15:19 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Roundup does not work on bamboo. Bamboo is the ultimate weed.
To get rid of bamboo you set it on fire down to the roots
EvilHenryPaulson Sat Mar 28 13:16:34 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Don't you just love gLibertarians? They never have to take responsibility for anything.
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 13:24:57 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
mock - I have no idea about gold stars, what that about? I was just introducing a real world experience.
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 13:26:42 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
copunterpointer...re gold star...i was just trying to be funny about your comment that my garbled post occasioned a new level of js-kit mess up
Parent Post
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 13:35:48 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
mock - ok I getcha. LOL. Nice one.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Sat Mar 28 13:52:07 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Thousands Protest Ahead of G-20 Summit in London
By VOA News
28 March 2009
"Tens of thousands of protesters gathered Saturday in cold, rainy weather to march through the city demanding action on creating jobs, justice for the underprivileged and climate change. The march was expected to conclude at the city's Hyde Park."
"Organizers of the protest include trade unions, religious organization and environmental groups. They are calling it the "Put People First March."
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-03-28-voa18.cfm
Nothing to see here...move along...nothing to see.....
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 13:27:13 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
anon, if that was directed at me, do explain.
burnside Sat Mar 28 13:28:46 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Today, 10:16:34 PM
<tbody>
“Roundup does not work on bamboo. Bamboo is the ultimate weed.
To get rid of bamboo you set it on fire down to the roots
</tbody>
You must destroy the lawn to save the lawn.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Sat Mar 28 13:29:52 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
Hmmm ...
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Sat Mar 28 13:30:41 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Didn't you mean:
<tbody>
“Hmmm....
</tbody>
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:40:40 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"My political forecasts have 10-20 years time horizon and economic and investment forecasts 3-5 years."
just ingenious. Given that a business cycle runs around 6 years, once a recovery is obvious you just can't go wrong with forecasting decline in 5 years. As of political forecast of 10 - 20 years and the ambiguity of calling Hitler any radical politician, you just can't go wrong, can't you?
My point is simple. Mentioning I predict that within 5 years in Economy and within 20 years in politics is saying nothing at all.
I predict that within 3-5 years we will be all right. Also within 20 years, we will have a very good leader who will take us out of this mess. Do my predictions actually predict anything? I doubt, they just state the obvious.
Comrade De Chaos Sat Mar 28 13:31:14 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
from the disagreemeent anonymous and i are having regarding a case at bar before the supreme court
from bloomberg
"The case will determine whether federal regulators have exclusive governmental authority to press fair-lending and other types of complaints against national banks. snip
Kagan filed the brief on behalf of the OCC, an independent Treasury Department bureau still being run by Republican appointee John Dugan, whose term expires in 2010. Obama has decided to retain Dugan, two people familiar with the decision said last month.
snip
Administration Constraints
Consumer advocates said Dugan’s control of the OCC may have constrained the new administration in its handling of the case, particularly given that Kagan was sworn in less than a week ago.
see link above thread
mock turtle Sat Mar 28 13:33:48 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Responsibility-personal concept-starts with the individual I believe...
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 13:35:15 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
-yes, responsibility starts with the individual, and unfortunately, for many, that's where it ends. Grow up.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 13:45:50 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
One interesting factoid from dshort.com: The US has been in recession about 25% of the time over a long period.
reptillian Sat Mar 28 13:40:12 2009 CDT #
Comrade_Terry says:
EHP: Bamboo, the ultimate weed? Have you never met Kudzu?
Comrade_Terry Sat Mar 28 13:48:53 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Kudzu is bad, but its range is limited; Japanese bamboo is really awful. Up here in the NE, poison ivy is also pretty bad, but more so because of the reaction than its invasiveness. That said, I've driven through the countryside and seen it lining the roads for what seems like miles, and there's no wisteria or kudzu to compete with it ot crowd it out.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Sat Mar 28 14:44:40 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Grow up? I guess it depends on your view of it...encouraging personal responsibility would add nothing to broader society.....Who is being immature-"reverting" so to say?
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 13:52:20 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
-please clarify.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 13:57:02 2009 CDT #
blueridge says:
Re: Bamboo - not only lots of varieties, but lots of different species. Some species are recommended for lawns - the "clumping bamboos" that don't spread by runners. The "running bamboos" are the invasive species.
I think eating the young shoots was the best suggestion.
Can't contribute much about economics, but I can add some botanical insight...
blueridge Sat Mar 28 13:58:33 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Statism-always seems to end one way......oppression under whatever guise, chart so forth you want to use.....it's the ultimate pyramid scheme......
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 14:05:14 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- let me get this straight. Are you saying the individual has no responsibility to society? Because... statism is the result? Do you know how whack that sounds?
Parent Post
notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 14:10:41 2009 CDT #
evelyn woods graduate says:
just wish his bamboo wouldn't migrate under the fence to my lawn
.:.:.:.
looks like an opportunity to get rid of some lawn.
always a good thing in my view.
bamboozle: chinese monetary policy? [drifts off...]
evelyn woods graduate Sat Mar 28 14:11:44 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Instead of mustard seeds,... bamboo shoots!
Rob Dawg Sat Mar 28 14:13:46 2009 CDT #
The disasta from Alaska... says:
From Bloomberg:
Alaska’s losses from a stock bet last year widened by 38 percent to $1.5 billion in January and February, a state official said. Now, with oil down 63 percent from its July 11 high, Governor Sarah Palin faces a record $1.3 billion deficit in next year’s budget and has proposed tapping that rainy day fund for the first time in five years.
The disasta from Alaska... Sat Mar 28 14:20:18 2009 CDT #
Virgil says:
The really scary graph on dshort is the extended, inflation-adjusted one:
http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet-real-extended
Virgil Sat Mar 28 14:24:52 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Mauldin on Housing?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/mauldin-on-housing.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Sat Mar 28 14:32:09 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
<tbody>
Are you saying the individual has no responsibility to society? Because... statism is the result? Do you know how whack that sounds?
</tbody>
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Was this the result of responsible behavior on behalf of individuals OR THE STATE?
As an individual YOU HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY to SOCIETY.
Were the INDIVIDUALS acting on behalf of THE STATE acting responsibly?
Has anything changed?
Throw around more vague ideas like conservative, liberal,Republican, Democrat....
The State appears to be acting on it's on behalf and growing.....
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 14:50:22 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- sorry, but your comments, themselves, are too vague and disjointed for me to make much sense of. I recognize a dissatisfaction with the State, that's about all, except for line 2, above, in which we are in agreement. Might I suggest finishing a sentence once you start one, instead of leaving them to trail off, as if what you are saying is obvious? Also, a string of disjointed phrases does not a sentence make, in reference to your previous entries. But to return to the topic under discussion, which, I believe, is your justification for the libertarian philosophy, (which I consider to be reactionary in the extreme considering the complexity of the world in which we live, and our place in it, and too simplistic in its outlook to be taken seriously), how is it that it has such traction among such a large segment of the very society that protects the free speech and property rights of its adherents? But, perhaps, I am answering my own question. You want all the rights and priviledges of citizenship, but don't want to be taxed or required to contribute in any way, beyond what you are willing to contribute voluntarily. Just what do you consider your responsibility to society?
And a follow-up question: Is the Constitution, itself, considered to be a Libertarian document? I mean, is it interpreted as such, because it lacks provision for income tax, and various other things, such as the Fed? Is it to be interpreted as if it were written in stone, much like our idea of the ten commandments? If so, where do the Amendments fit in? I must admit, the Libertarian mindset intrigues me, mostly for its obstinacy.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 17:26:35 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Bamboo grows in Fla, but I've never noticed it being particularly invasive.
Now the blackberry bush I planted has baby blackberrys all over the place nearby. I wouldn't mind, except it is so very prickly.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 28 15:08:05 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
LINK -- (Cummulative Returns of Stocks and Bonds 1801-2009)::
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12949.htm
Jas Sat Mar 28 15:55:43 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Use Casoron in the winter on the areas where babmboo is approaching from to help control it just keep it out of your lawn as it will kill grass. In the sumertime round-up or crossbow is your best bet but they aren't very effective.
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 16:31:10 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
It is interesting to note the current spike during this on-going down-turn. The recent spike is obviously not sustainable and just offers wall street a chance to cash in on short-term volatility. The Treasury yields are crashing and that will have a greater impact on future value than a 2 week wall street speculating spree!
:-D
Anonymous Sat Mar 28 16:50:32 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
You are referring to anarchy. Government is a necessary evil (you need order) agreed?
How much order do you need?
Who and what will determine this order?
As far as my contribution or anyone else's you have absolutely no, and I mean no idea what that is - either at a "tax" level or on a personal voluntary level as far as mine or anyone else's contributions to society. Individuals are not the property of the state. I think the state has a few answers forth coming, people do have the right to ask. Unless individuals have no rights.
Don't try to make this a personal argument . I'm not falling for it.
This is being driven by emotions. You are not going to get satisfaction-if that is the case- where are the law suits? Where is the recourse? I am not seeing it.
The wealthy are still going to be wealthy and the rest will be? Hint: less free and poorer.
All the protests over in Europe and the U.k. -the call for more centralizing of power, yes? Something must be done, it's a crisis , a crisis caused by a centrally controlled out of reach opaque uncaring system.
Simplicity is what is needed. Central power is what made this too complex AND too powerful to handle. More central power will only complicate it more. The wealthy will only get more wealth. By the way, who is going to lead this utopia? The same people who crafted the problem will now present the solution I suppose. That's easy, somewhat like having all the answers to the test.
Central command had it's chance to prove itself-it failed.
Magical Thinking Sat Mar 28 17:57:52 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
-wow! thanx for the response; I thought it might be too late. I was beginning to wonder if I was responding to a Michael sock-puppet, and now I wonder if CBR hasn't stolen your handle-
1) Government is indeed necessary, and I can even see the rationale in adding the "evil" addendum, especially after the last administration.
2) IMO, we need as much "order" as is necessary to control said anarchy.
3)Who and what will determine this order? I presume the electorate, by way of their representatives, if not by the very people, themselves.
4) I in no way mean to impugn any contribution you make to society, by way of taxes or otherwise.
5) Individuals rather are the property of the state. Witness Child Protective Services, and the State's right to incarcerate. It is a useful fiction to believe otherwise, IMO.
6) The State is certainly answerable to the people. Individuals indeed have rights. The State is the people.
7) This is not personal, although I admit to a certain feeling of irritation to your earlier comments, out of context as they were. I apologize.
8) IMO, lawsuits are forthcoming. Recourse is at law. Have patience.
As for the rest, I feel a massive redistribution of wealth downward is under way. We shall see. I agree that so far it seems questionable. Simplicity is needed. More local control, agreed. Not Utopia, but balance. As far as the people who crafted the problem crafting the solution, perhaps. We are, after all, only human. And with all the increased awareness, I feel our representatives will be held to a higher standard than heretofor. Time will tell. After the last ever so many years, I can understand the cynicism. Nevertheless, I remain hopeful for our future, and work to make it a reality.
Again, thank you for your response.
Yours in peace.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 19:09:11 2009 CDT #
END