Props to CRbot (briwerk) and CRC-ize (yagij) for their efforts to improve the commenting system.
But I give props to UConn and Villanova for their efforts, too. The game ends when time runs out.
Ken's a genius! All hail Ken!!!
p.s.: Can't wait to get back all the features I knew and loved in CR Companion.
Thanks much, Ken; very generous of you, sir.
wrt the hoocoodanode comments system: I HATE CHANGE!!
and bring back the gold standard pls
LOL
every time i saw "CRC-ize," i kept thinking of the verb that has nothing to do blog comments....
Actually, if you see glitches, please submit feedback, as I'm scanning the comments quickly right now.
Also, just wanted to thank all those who've contributed so far. Very, very helpful. The chipin indicator (at least to me) is falsely reporting current contributions at $0, but it's closer to $600.
Thank you all!
Ok. I'm no longer a doom and gloomer. Things will be ok now that we have some stability in the comment markets.
I've been concerned about the various attempts to manipulate the comment markets (acronym city!)
Faith has been restored. Buy and sell and comment freely. Risk is dead once again.
one other thing.
if someone says "generational low", they are a stupid liar.
end message
Finally, please be patient on the features. I'm still working out the steak before I get to the sizzle. My parser didn't get all the archived comments, for example, so I'm working on fixing that now. And reliability is the first priority.
Hi Ken - I gave the $25 today for hopes that you will fix the timezone issue for us Eastern guys. It's currently 8:28 PM here.
Thanks for your work and effort!
Wonderful. Thanks for all your hard work.
Words of thanks and encouragement for a job well done!
Interesting Times, create an account (become a member) and it will let you select a time zone for your area.
Thank you, Ken.
NW
We need a bank failure or something on a weekend to stress test hoocoodanode.
I don't know about the features yet, but these are certainly far more attractive than the last round, and they don't open in an itty bitty window, thus so far so good.
Interesting Times, if you're willing to register, you can specify your own time zone.
The default time zone will probably stay west coast unless there's a huge clamor for a change.
Oh, and Interesting Times, thanks for the contribution!
This is
test. Thanks Ken.
thanks briwerk and yagij!
best luck adding all those features we came to love :^)
we shall see...
kcoop - I normally never register for sites... but something about your and CR's hard work makes me want to be part of this community.
New Member
Thanks !
Say goodnight, JS-Kit.
I am now a member.
OK, I'll try anything once.
he default time zone will probably stay west coast unless there's a huge clamor for a change. ~KC
Westside, do or die... LOL !
(Nice preview pain below too:))
For fun, I just checked the user count (a stat I'll probably add to the current visitor count), and we're up to 174 registered users.
And here's one everyone will enjoy - Nemo was first!
Well, I probably won't contribute any money or comments of substance but...
When I sign on can a bell ring? The Microsoft chime sound is good enough.
Can Werners signature be in red, black, and white ... something like Deutschland Uber Alles would be cool.
Can we get a tinfoil hat icon?
When Jas signs on - can it be to an alternative universe?
I am sure I will think of more. Ken, please do not feel like this should be a priority. Wed. is good for me.
Very nice. Very, very nice.
I've been long comment systems almost as long as glod.
Yeah this is better. I noticed Jim Cramer says we're out of Depression territory - now we just have to face inflation and a recession. That doesn't sound too hard!
I don't think Shiela Bair is going to like this.
And now, due the insistent demands of pretty much nobody, yet another Haloscan-izer.
It's view only, but it should work on anything (it efven works on my cheesy flip-phone). No left "gutter", no replay buttons, just text and lines. Also no sigs or viewing profiles.
See http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
Thanks to Ken for a useable RSS feed - JS-kit's was garbage.
I noticed Jim Cramer says we're out of Depression territory
Considering the guy is always wrong, his comment scares teh >) >-) 
>:) out of me.
Oh, the shortcut icon is supposed to be mortgage pig?
/sites/default/files/squarepig.png
I didn't see it at first.
Ken,
Lots of white space on the left margin; perhaps some "adsense" to help defray costs? I'm not advocating clutter, but I wouldn't mind it anymore than those ads that show up on CR's main page.
If you join and log in, does the left column disappear and the comments fill the whole page?
Thank you Ken for all your work
Thank you CR for putting up with all of our bitching.
I'm sure there will be hitches here and there, but I"m really optimistic here.
The best feature so far: NO THREADED. It got too hard to read as threaded.
I also like the (member) status.
and it's so easy to read now.
well done.
Also, just wanted to thank all those who've contributed so far. Very, very helpful. The chipin indicator (at least to me) is falsely reporting current contributions at $0, but it's closer to $600.
I'll add $100. it's change that I believe in.
If you join and log in, does the left column disappear and the comments fill the whole page?
no. at least not for me. And I'm bona-fied now.
Uhhh, Ken.... Is the contribution account an equity participation account? I think your on to something here.
kcoop,
I still think the 'reply' button is a waste of time since the default and consensus from users was chronological comments.
However, if that reply button could become an 'ignore' button, then we would each be able to eliminate commenters we found particularly irritating while each of us remained exposed to others ignoring us.
This change would tend to honor one of CR's goals for the system: absence of personal attacks (well, at least the mindless ones).
My precious is tanking...
Gold Charts GOLD 04/05/2009 21:05 885.80 886.80 -8.00 -0.90%
Good job, congrats!
Nice job!
Ken, nice job!
Conjure sends his regards.
The left whitespace is still there after membership... not an issue for the iphone and zooming.
Many thanks
Looking forward to further attractions
And here's one everyone will enjoy - Nemo was first!
you can't be seroius
Ken,
A spell checker for multiple European languages would be nice.
I suppose in time are membership numbers will become important for status reasons. I think Bond Girl should get 007
BH should get 069
Jas should get 666
Source: FInancial Times
Why this will not be a normal cyclical recovery
By Roger Altman
Published: April 5 2009 19:23 | Last updated: April 5 2009 19:23
The rare nature of this recession precludes a cyclically normal US recovery. Instead, we are consigned to a slow, painful climb-out, as are nations such as Japan and Mexico that depend on US demand. The implications for US policy include a likely second round of stimulus, much more federal capital for the banking system and stunning budget deficits that will slow key initiatives for President Barack Obama, such as healthcare and energy reform.
What is unusual is that this is a balance-sheet driven recession, centred on the damaged financial condition of both households and banks. These weaknesses mandate sub-normal levels of consumer spending and overall lending for about three years.
I spend hours reading on Sundays. This was the most revealing and troubling item I read today.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/opinion/05gill.html?em
KC. just making sure you got this. my gratitude.
Also GUILT TO OTHERS> Pay up b*tches. Ken Cooper deserves $10-100 if Ken Lewis got $10-100 Trillion.
4/5/2009
Receipt ID blah blah blah
Paid By: Yearning to Learn
For: Hooocoodanode Commenting System
Method: PayPal
Total: $100.00
Ken must mean real users.
Some guy named admin is user 1.
Wow, I can edit my crappy spelling and grammer. From this point on I will appear smart in the archives!
Links should open in a new window rather than inline.
mp,
Are you going to elaborate on your usual cryptic comments? Such as "we should have our personal plans for the coming assault of the zombie creditors?"
Ken, can you add a "partisan" button which can automatically filter out democrat and republican weenies?
No, wait, on the other hand, they can be quite amusing.
Thanks Ken! Looks great - can't wait for the counter to be active.
Still lurking about...,
Please allow anonymous posts.
YTL good on ya'! The rich post Mon-Fri. The poor working class stink up the place on the weekend. Myself included.
:+)
Same O Same O,
Okay, I'll bite. What was so troubling about that fluff piece.
Same O Same O:
interesting article.
I did vote for O with reservations (I was a Dennis Kucinich guy myself).
I feel there are things he does right (such as encouraging a cadre of people to be interested in politics again)
and things he does wrong (he seems to be just as captured by special interests as those before him)
he clearly is one of the best politicians in some time.
but that is just a tool. the big question: will he use his acumen for the people or for the connected. That evidently remains to be seen.
at this point, it seems clearly that it's connected interests.
but I've heard (I don't know him as well as others) that he is a brilliant tactician. And thus perhaps he is leading the industry into a trap? he may be luring "the enemy" to sleep, making them think he's on their side. All the easier to stab them in the back.
the trillion dollar question: who is the enemy? the banksters? or the taxpayer?
although I've been disillusioned thus far (summers, geithner, etc), I personally will still hold out some modicum of hope. what else is left?
-----
KC:
I absolutely love the preview function. It's the smoothest one I've ever seen (admittedly I'm not a techie, nor do I blog much). but I absolutely love it.
It was a heart tugging fluff piece on Obama. I have to admit I did get teary eyed.
I am going to hug a black man at work tommorow.
YTL good on ya'! The rich post Mon-Fri. The poor working class stink up the place on the weekend. Myself included.
:+)
I know you are joking, but there is nothing wrong with being working class or poor. Americans have truly forgot that. Sometime in the 80's I'd guess. I'm not sure how that cultural shift happened... but suddenly wealth became a moral situation. I know that was the case in the old monarchies... but I always had this idea that post-industrial America was 'different'.
clearly that changed. we need to get back to valuing contribution to society as opposed to income.
lastly: there are ofen 400-600 posters on here at one time. If each donated $5 that would be $2K to $3K.
If I can't guilt people to donate $5, then I need to join O's team to learn.
----
@sportsfan:
not to speak for Same O, but here was my interpretation of his/her issue:
Obama has become a rock star.. As I said above, I think that's great. It's reinvigorated a lot of people who had dropped out of politics. I think politics is the only thing more important to general society than is economics. I would LOVE it if Americans started thinking critically and challenging their leaders (as they often do in France).
the fact that he shook the bobby's hand shows true American spirit. if it was genuine (I don't doubt that it was... Americans are like that).
the problem comes in that he then used his popularity to steamroll the Europeans. in the end, was that good for us as a worldwide society? That the Eurozone follows the US in its implementation of solutions? I"m not so sure.
William Buiter argues that Europe should do more stimulus... so perhaps it was good that people caved to Obama. But I wish they would have pushed other issues as well.
hoping this works on my computer at work
it's been rough since Haloscan died
I'm willing to lose my apostrophe for a new and improved (and accessible?) comment system
ytl ,as soon as I hear this is equity participation, 2-3k is going to get passed Real Darn Quick
KC: the only thing I'd add if possible would be a refresh button. small potato(e)s
ytl ,as soon as I hear this is equity participation, 2-3k is going to get passed Real Darn Quick
ROFL. I'll allow that. As long as later on you agree to a debt to equity swap.
test
test failed, everybody already knows everything.
oops. I screwed that up.
Maybe it's an equity to debt swap with restructuring under a PPIP resulting in a warrant on a guaranteed asset in a hoopajoop?
innovation is difficult. I'm confused now.
although I've been disillusioned thus far (summers, geithner, etc), I personally will still hold out some modicum of hope. what else is left?
YTL,
I was also disillusioned by his appointments and by their efforts to date in the financial world, but I think Obama knew he was dealt a losing hand in that game and literally has been bluffing his way to this point. I continue to see Geithner as a transition guy and, to that extent, see a continuation of Paulson's policies a transition position.
As some here have noticed, I supported him without any reservations at all . . . and, for the most part, continue to do so.
He is not just highly intelligent, well educated, culturally adept and accomplished at both strategy and tactics, but someone who has convinced me he really is a once-in-a-generation kind of leader.
So long as any POTUS will be a politician (with all the negative implications that entails), I can't imagine anyone I'd rather have at the helm when the ship is taking on a whole lot of water.
My prediction last fall was the Swiss Banks become last weekends sizzle from the Rotary Clubs BBQ in a few years. They are going to fall into the glacier crevasse of dispair and ill repute. Money gone, the sharp dressed men will wander in circles trying to remember how to yodel for the staring crowds. An Iceland in the making, watches ancient history, they will finance a last ditch production of the SOund of Music on Broadway hoping to bring home hard currency.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 7:17PM BST 05 Apr 2009
Swiss consumer prices fell 0.4pc in March (year-on-year). Swiss CPI will be minus 1pc at least by July, nearing the level where spending psychology changes. By the time you have a self-feeding spiral, it is too late.
"This is something that we must prevent at all costs. The current situation is extraordinarily serious," said Philipp Hildebrand, a governor of the Swiss National Bank.
I, for one, will be keeping my glass half full after this historic summitThe SNB is not easily spooked. It is the world's benchmark bank, the keeper of the monetary flame. Yet even the SNB's hard men have thrown away the rule book, taking emergency action to force down the exchange rate of the Swiss franc.
Here lies the danger. If other countries try to export deflation by this means, we will face a second phase of the global crisis. Taiwan is already devaluing. Korea, Singapore, and Sweden all seem tempted to follow. Japan is chomping at the bit.
"We don't fully realise in the West what a catastrophic collapse Japan has suffered," says Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale. "The West has dumped a large part of its economic downturn onto Japan by devaluing against the yen."
This is about to go into reverse as Tokyo hits the ping-pong ball back across the net. "As the unfolding collapse in the yen gathers pace, the West will see its green shoots incinerated to dust," he said.
Japan's industrial output fell 38pc in February (year-on-year), mostly concentrated into the last four months. No major economy imploded at this speed in the 1930s. The country has been hit by a double shock. As an export power it has taken the brunt of Anglo-Saxon belt-tightening: as the world's top creditor it is cursed by a "safe-haven" currency that soars in moments of danger – largely because the Japanese bring home their wealth till the storm passes. Normally, Japan can cope. This time, the yen's rise has pushed the economy over a cliff.
The yen must come back down to earth, and soon, or Japanese society will start to disintegrate. If necessary, the Bank of Japan will force it down by intervention, as occurred in 2003-2004.
Will China stand idly by as Japanese unleashes a shock to the global system through competitive devaluation? That depends whether you think China's spring recovery is the real thing, or an inventory build-up before the next downward slide. The Communist Party says 20m jobs have been lost since the bubble burst. This cannot be tolerated for long.
It is remarkable that China's fall into deflation has attracted so little notice. China's CPI was minus 1.6pc in February. The country has built too many factories producing goods that the world cannot absorb. The temptation is to shunt this excess capacity abroad. A faction of the politburo is already itching to devalue the yuan.
Of course, Britain has already played the currency card. That is different. The pound's fall, though welcome, is a side-effect of the Bank of England efforts to stem the credit crunch. There has been no currency intervention.
Crucially, Britain has a current account deficit. Many countries toying with devaluation are exporters with surpluses – 15.4pc of GDP for Singapore, 8.4pc for Switzerland, and 6.1pc for China. If these countries refuse to let their imbalances correct, world demand must implode.
Mr Hildebrand denies that the SNB is pursuing a "beggar-thy-neighbour' strategy. Like the yen, the franc suffers from the safe-haven curse: everybody buys it in a storm. This tightens monetary conditions. The SNB cannot easily offset this. It has already cut interest rates to near zero. There are not enough Swiss government bonds in the market to rely on the sort of "QE" asset purchases being carried out by the Bank.
Ultimately, I suspect this crisis may mark the moment when the Swiss franc loses its safe-haven role. Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring risk on five-year government debt have reached 127 for Switzerland, higher than Britain at 118. Norway has the world's lowest CDS at 48, reflecting its status as a petro-democracy.
Switzerland's banks are over-leveraged. Loans to emerging markets equal 50pc of GDP (half to Eastern Europe). Banking secrecy is dying. Fortunately for the Swiss, they have built up $700bn in net foreign assets for a rainy day. Improvident Britons are less lucky. But that is another story. What we risk now is a game of deflation "pass-the-parcel" worldwide. The
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMWnzAPdYvl8&refer=home
U.S. May Oust CEOs at Banks Needing ‘Exceptional’ Aid
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he’s prepared to oust the senior management and boards of directors at banks that require “exceptional” assistance from the U.S. government
capitlism is officially dead.
I think the 'reply' button should add a header identifying the original post.
Thanks
and boards of directors at banks
. . . the problem comes in that he then used his popularity to steamroll the Europeans. in the end, was that good for us as a worldwide society?
I won't pretend to answer for worldwide society since I've already admitted I don't have a solution for the U.S.
Obama's position in Europe, though, was clear as a bell. He was there to represent U.S. interests as he sees them.
If in fact he used rock star status to bulldoze Europeans in doing what he wanted, then he was doing his job and doing it well.
Mostly, though, I just saw a fluff piece. Again, he has star-like qualities, but his best attribute at the moment is that he is 'not Bush.'
So long as any POTUS will be a politician (with all the negative implications that entails), I can't imagine anyone I'd rather have at the helm when the ship is taking on a whole lot of water.
Personally, I think the Sheriff of Maricopa County is also a viable candidate for POTUS. Maybe even POMPUS
Sportsfan, Join me at work in "Hug a Black Man " day!
slow as molasses on iPod.
Maybe it's me.
Only other site I remember doing this was rtsports.com
Sportsfan, you do have black men at your job? Or are you in Idaho?
hey nova, drop the R bs.
New comments section seesm pretty good. Anyone else think this coming week will be strangely very quiet??
hey nova, drop the R bs.
What is R bs?
Testing, testing ... if the Sherrfi of Maricopa county is a viable POTUS candidate, so is my lower intestine. Did my comment take?
racial bs?
Might be Republican? Retarded? Righteous?
S&L Regulation Heavywieght William Black Charges Geithner, Summers and Obama With Banking Cover-Up (Bill Moyers Video)
Ouch,
Ultimately, I suspect this crisis may mark the moment when the Swiss franc loses its safe-haven role.
Got glod?
Sportsfan, Join me at work in "Hug a Black Man " day!
nova, I got a good laugh at your original comment - literally.
But what makes you think I'm not Black?
Or what makes you think I work with any Black men?
Would hugging a Mexican count?
Just trying to clarify.
America, when I can get a really excellent comment system at Calculated Risk with just my good looks?
-- Allen Ginsberg.
IBM Sun (down)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aK8nQy37SeGI&refer=home
Ken Cooper and his team you guys are outstanding,
thankyou
and yes i will step up and make a
donation
Gold would be good. Probably awesome good.
OT
summers getting fattened like a pig from his friends the bankstas
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/04/05/business/econwatch/entry4920261....
and my comment
"lawrence summers...hummm he was one of the guys that helped, with greenspan, to push out brooksley born out of her job, when she was chair of the cftc and she warned we were headed for an econoimic cliff.
come to think of it summers helped get iris mack, one of the foremost mathematical and business geniuses thrown out of the harvard investment management team when she warned that derivatives were investment wmd
summers should be tried for treason he has done as much damage to america as an alqaeda terrorist
Sorry if this has already been seen 1000 times, but I just read it for the first time at a random stock blog and am shamelessly stealing it:
"Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around about Heidi's drink-now pay-later marketing strategy and as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar and soon she has the largest sale volume for any bar in Detroit. By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.
A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral. At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS - all rated AAA by Snooty's Investor Services, Snitch and Standard and Get Poor's - for a fee, of course. These securities are then traded on security markets worldwide. Naive investors don't really understand the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, their prices continuously climb, and the securities become the top-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.
One day, although the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the bank (subsequently fired due his negativity), decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. Heidi demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Therefore, Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy.
DRINKBOND and ALKIBOND drop in price by 90%. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 70%. The decreased bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity since the banks borrowed up to 32x their initial capital to buy the bonds (even more in their off balance sheet bar companies) and a mere 20% drop in these bonds would wipe them clean, save government intervention. The events effectively prevent it from issuing new loans since the market won't give them more than 30 cents on the dollar for the best of them. The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment extensions and having invested in the securities are faced with writing off her debt and losing over 80% on her bonds. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 50 workers. The Detroit stock market drops, then rallies vociferously as the Fantasy Accounting Standards Boards states, under duress and a sleeper choke hold from honest politicians that causes them to tap out (UFC style), that the bank may now use their discretion in valuing these bonds due to the fact that no on in the entire world wants to buy them really has no bearing on their true value!
The bank and brokerage houses are saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock negotiations by leaders from both political parties. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by a tax levied on employed middle-class non-drinkers."
Sportsfan,
Good, I am glad you laughed because that was intention. It does not matter what color you are. Why? Because here, we are all CR Brothers and Sisters.
I've been ordering kilo bars from metalor and wait time is 6 weeks.
Ken,
Can you a feature displaying peoples skin color?
hey nova, drop the R bs.
Oooohhh, nova, I can see not everyone laughed.
Here we are in a non-racial world, a quasi-community of electrons, as it were (or whatever it is).
Yet at some point every one of us has to turn off the computer and go out into the world where it is racial.
Thank goodness for the sanctity of this, our very own Utopia, where we all exist beyond race.
mock turtle, it's all good:
Of the 8M from the financial industry [not including his academic compensation], Summers reported donating two fees totaling $70,000, including the payment from Merrill Lynch, to charity."
I think the 'reply' button should add a header identifying the original post.
Along with the text of the original post, italicized, or maybe just the first 3 lines of text from the original post.
sportsfan,
Yes, also we can not flash cash or status without bringing something to the community discussion eventually.
here, we are all CR Brothers and Sisters.
True . . . and have you noticed that without self-identification it's also tough to tell the brothers from the sisters around here.
sportsfan:
again: I too hope this is just transitional.
however, someone used the example of previous republicans not understanding what GWB was until far too late. they supported him into catastrophe.
not sure I"m willing to do that with O.
I will support him (like I have a choice), but I will also challenge him.
and ironically he may NEED us to challenge him to make him stronger.
If we lie back and sing "there's no place like home" while summers/geithner run all over us, then the bankers have won.
if we squawk and scream, then O can go to the connected and say "listen, I'm facing a populist riot. I CAN'T give you what you want".
it's not just O. we ALL need to put pressure on the financially connected. Timmy needs to step down in DISGRACE. Summers needs to be SHAMED back to hedige land. Rubin needs to slink back to his crypt. Ken Lews needs to be AFRAID to ask for more bailout. Pandit needs to be CONTRITE when he requests further aid.
I"m tired of the bankers/financial elite walzing in and saying "bail us out or you're in trouble". one of the WORST things IMO. I'm still one of the few people who remembers the beginning of the AIG debacle, when they REFUSED infusions of cash from private investors just days before coming to suck on Mama Govt's teat. because they knew it would come with less strings. we need them to be afraid... at least a little.
as for being black: what does hugging a black man have to do with the POTUS shaking a bobby's hand? Perhaps it does take a black man to think courteously? Perhaps O really does have some "difference". I don't recall GWB or Clinton doing that. And that is where people miscalculate O.
that said, as far as any of you know I'm black so maybe you should just come hug me?
g'night all
nova, you mean I can't say I drove to this site in 'my big Mercedes' and thereby impress you?
Nice work CR & Ken...
Nova- "mp, Are you going to elaborate on your usual cryptic comments?"
Not to be argumentative, but no, and why should I?
Everyone should have a personal strategy for dealing with the economic consequences of this farce, this dog and pony show featuring President Obama's trained poodles, Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers.
What's cryptic about that? Is there something about farces, dog and pony shows, and trained poodles that you don't understand?
The U.S. economy is burning to the ground and the principal contribution these highly-paid poodles--who can't keep their lies straight--have made to the financial crisis is that shit is now called "legacy assets," a free pass is now a "stress test," and seizure has become "nationalization." This change in vocabulary allows *them* to define the discussion.
This is why many --and I am among them--are fast losing our civility and patience.
Sorry, rant off.
Conjure says, "Hi!"
Ken
as promised
again, thanks
Glad to finally be able to comment via BlackBerry again
Summers's compensation story has the potential to become the next AIG bonus fiasco. Many of the DC lifers put up with Summers because he had this persona of being an academic/policy wonk (e.g. Krugman, Stiglitz, Mankiw, Feldstein). The D.E. Shaw reignites the intense dislike that many innately feel regarding the man.
A Rich Education for Summers (After Harvard)
Mr. Summers, the former Treasury secretary and Harvard president who is now the chief economic adviser to President Obama, earned nearly $5.2 million in just the last of his two years at one of the world’s largest funds, according to financial records released Friday by the White House.
Impressive as that might sound, it is all the more considering that Mr. Summers worked there just one day a week.
I will support him (like I have a choice), but I will also challenge him.
and ironically he may NEED us to challenge him to make him stronger.
By all means, do so. I agree he needs to hear different views and many views that do not come from his inner circle.
I only have one voice, as do you. It will take a lot of people to have any significant impact. Some of them comment on this board.
Sportsfan
im with ya
i am, was ,overall an obama supporter but im gonna call foul when he caves to the bankstas
geithner and summers should be sent packing
and as MP and dryfly posted eons ago insolvent banks should be ,nationalized, or pre privatized, or placed into gov receivership or some flavor of all that depending on the terms that make sense, and now
obama is eroding my support for his admin
Ok, this needs to be vetted by some pros.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5269#more
This is why many --and I am among them--are fast losing our civility and patience.
mp, I know you didn't intend this, but, when I read that line, I remembered the multiple-murder stories we've heard lately.
I'm a little concerned that some people are just freaking out and I'm not sure why that is. We've had recessions before.
The L.A. riots post-verdict on the cops from the Rodney King incident happened during a recession. I remember discussing that with an intel guy who basically predicted it would end soon unless cop-killings took hold. In his mind civil insurrection was capable of being handled until cop-killings got to be commonplace. Then it was Katy-bar-the-door time.
Yet two of our recent multiple-murder incidents were 4 cops in Oakland and 3 cops in Pittsburgh. If this continues, we're all going to be a world of hurt.
Okay buccaneers and pirate fanciers of the Crimson Permanent Assurance.
For many days you have declamed the need for a new pirate ship.
Now, lo, you have a frigate.
Master shipwright Ken needs compensation.
See to your part.
Perhaps you market-timing, rumor-planting, price-manipulating scurvy dogs can spare some of the winnings to secure your future livelihood.
Please dont make me runaway again. Ever since Halscan crashed and burned I just havent been able to bring myself back to the comments. Figures Id miss a ginormous stock market rally too. Sigh....
I'm a little concerned that some people are just freaking out and I'm not sure why that is.
More a worry for before your society is corrupt, contemptible and bankrupt than after. Maybe you could have been more inclusive a decade or two ago before the cops were nothing more than trustees of the prison state and the government no more than the fig leaf for a gang of robbers. Now you have no moral authority. Oops. Too bad, nobody mentioned that decades ago.
Oh wait they did, and were told to shut up while the real he-men wrecked the country.
Maybe putting more brothers in the back seat and putting up more cameras will help. That's the answer to everything, isn't it?
I prefer the classic term "seized".
he's going to get to $5g's real quick. like by monday night. It's going to go to his head! He's going to go to vegas. Then we'll have our first little problem and he's going to be praying to porcelain why we freak out!
So, demand your equity participation units today!
Thnx, KCoop.....................good work.........................but then I never whine and complain much anyway.
(Really, I'm just testing my signature. Can I get the "Star Thingee" in BLACK please? [eg]
test
Rome italy quake...6.3
53 miles northeast of
If this continues, we're all going to be a world of hurt.
The problem is a product of its its context. It's a rational response to the fact that the police ARE nothing more than jailers. Change the context of the us-vs-them mentality if you don't want to see America's future as the Swat Valley. Until the mechanism of justice produces justice, it won't be legitimate, nor will it be seen as such.
The deflationists are wrong?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6xS8ykL5Esg&refer=home
mp, this thing will take time to unwind. it may take a decade for this collapse to run its course. patience, my man, patience
"Maybe putting more brothers in the back seat and putting up more cameras will help."
Cameras DO tend to lower crime, though I sure don't like the Big Brother aspect. "Brothers" in the back seat didn't keep them from burning up their community twice in LA, once or twice in Detroit, and once in DC........is it still considered racist to even bring that kinda stuff up?
for those who were present last night in the wee hours for the debate about n korea, nukes and emp (electro magnetic pulse) here an interesting story
"Gingrich: Attack North Korea with electromagnetic pulse
David Edwards and Jeremy Gantz
Published: Sunday April 5, 2009
"Only hours after North Korea launched a rocket, Newt Gingrich was on television saying the United States should have preemptively attacked the nuclear-armed country – with an electromagnetic pulse."
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Gingrich_Attack_North_Korea_with_electroma...
Amazing behind the scenes remake of comments. Hats off to all who participated.
Added a little to the growing Chip jar. Keep up the good work CR.
mp (and HI! Conjure),
said this to friends yesterday. i'm about to go john galt. just quit the job, pull what's left of the 401k and pay the taxes, pay off the car, CC, and part of the house, then hope for the best doing minwage work.
they can't tax what i don't make, and i fully realize what my taxes contribute to my community.
maybe they'll think again when i'm not paying and my deadbeat neighbors (and housemate) are all sitting on corners waiting for handouts.
it's that bad and i'm that pissed off.
I'm a little concerned that some people are just freaking out and I'm not sure why that is. We've had recessions before.
We have not had a Balance Sheet recession in about 3 generations.
We have not had the US Treasury openly looted since the Harding Administration, usually they are sneaker than this.
Our social safety nets have been shredded; the money to fund them pissed away. There ain't nothing in Al Gore's Social Security; its been pissed away in the sands of Mesopotamia or given to the banksters and their bookie (AIG).
There is real cognitive dissonance between what we propose our country to be and what it is proving to be. We are being forced to choose between our lying eyes and the myths that we were told. It is disconcerting and unbalancing. Some people handle that by "freaking out"; others by dropping out; and still others by battening down the hatches for rough weather.
NW
Sportsfan- "I'm a little concerned that some people are just freaking out and I'm not sure why that is. We've had recessions before."
I think it's important to remember that, for those less fortunate than many of us, a recession is a depression.
On the other hand, for those accustomed to having it all, then suddenly losing it, an economic downturn can be a lifechanging experience. The consequences can be tragic.
Sometimes, people can't handle it and they strike out. That's what happened in Binghamton, NY. We see it in every recession, and we're going to see more of it this time around.
Well, Oil Equations, that was an interesting piece. Sorry I'm not a pro, thus not capable of vetting.
I'd like to hear what commenters '1 world currency - yogi' or 'energyecon' have to say about it.
My non-pro take it that it will never fly in the U.S., i.e., the U.S. will never agree to it or accept it.
If some energy exporters decide not to take fiat currency in the future, they can shut off the spigot.
We'll just have to integrate that into the various other pending doomsday scenarios we already have.
It is interesting to note that many of you have noticed that cop killings are becoming more common. The next trend to watch for is people killing the family members of cops.
I think that cops are being targeted for two types of reasons.
1. They end up enforcing some fairly stupid laws (drug laws) and unpopular policies. Their attitudes and changing public opinion have certainly not helped their cause.
2. They are increasingly seen as being complicit with a system that chases a woman who steals cake from a store (on Cops) but rewards wall streeters who steal the life savings and pensions of honest people.
_________________
4th cop dies in parolee rampage
An Oakland police officer shot during a traffic stop was pronounced brain-dead Sunday, but he remained on life-support. He was among the four officers either slain or gravely wounded on the deadliest day in the department's history Saturday, police said.
A 26-year-old parolee wanted on a parole violation opened fire on Officer John Hege, 41, and Sgt. Mark Dunakin, 40, after they pulled him over Saturday afternoon, police said. Sgt. Dunakin died that day. Officer Hege was hospitalized with a major brain injury and survived through the night, his family said. Police department spokesman Jeff Thomason said that a final decision was being made Sunday afternoon about donating Officer Hege's organs. Suspect Lovelle Mixon was slain later Saturday afternoon in a gunfight with police that left two more officers dead. Mr. Thomason identified those officers as Sgt. Ervin Romans, 43, and Sgt. Daniel Sakai, 35.
The Summers news is also on Bloomberg . Can we all hope for some change?
Some other interesting tidbits from this story:
“There was considerable interest in hearing his [Summers'] economic insights,” said Ben LaBolt, a White House spokesman. At the White House, Summers “has been at the forefront of this administration’s work to shore up our nation’s financial system and to put in place a regulatory framework that will strengthen the financial system,” LaBolt said.
--------------------------------------
The disclosure statement for Summers and several other top administration officials illustrates the quandary Obama and his predecessors have faced in their personnel decisions because “powerful people are almost always also rich people” who have earned money from private interests, said Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa.
--------------------------------------
Desiree Rogers, the White House social secretary, was paid $1.8 million for less than seven months’ work as president of Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas. In July, she left the utility company to work for Allstate as president of social networking, and was paid $350,000 through the end of the year.
--------------------------------------
“This is one of many stories where we see the intricate connections” between the government and those that it oversees, said Julian Zelizer, a history and public affairs professor at Princeton University in New Jersey. “There is a long history of this and it does not mean that serious regulation cannot take place. But without substantive lobbying and campaign finance reform, the nation will always face this challenge.”
Does anyone know if "not getting a paycheck" is grounds for filing for unemployment?
I chipped in.
can i haz a robotic james earl jones vocal avatar to orate my comments, plez?
Cameras DO tend to lower crime, though I sure don't like the Big Brother aspect.
It's called "drive-off". You push the criminals to new locales. The answer lies in community development, not police work. The police can never do anything more than clean up the failures.
"Brothers" in the back seat didn't keep them from burning up their community twice in LA, once or twice in Detroit, and once in DC........is it still considered racist to even bring that kinda stuff up?
I dunno, do I get to blame white people for bankrupting the country, plowing us into seveal unwnnable foreign wars, destroying the domestic fabric of the Republic in the name of racial anxienty? Because if we want to talk about "them" I'd say whites -- and cops -- have a whole lot to answer for.
Otherwise, I think if you kick a dog you'll make it vicious and you shouldn't be surprised when it is. Like usual, I'd say the just thing to do is tie the kicker up and let the dog be vicious to them. I'm sure not going to be sorry for the asshole when the dog bites him, which looks like about the long and the short of it to me. But that's anti-police "class warfare" rhetoric, isn't it? Can't speak badly of those guys who pointed guns at you while the bankers took very dollar you and your great grand kids will ever earn. They're real American heroes for the red white and blue.
president of social networking, and was paid $350,000 through the end of the year.
ughhh. $70K per month for social networking...
Lothar- "it's that bad and i'm that pissed off."
What you're talking about doing doesn't compute for me. It's like putting on a hair shirt.
These are the same people who said that 150 $/B oil was not caused by speculation.
These are the same people who cryptically advocate killing 6 billion people (preferably the darkies)
These are the same people who have been missing predictions since they started predicting.
These are the same people who masturbate on everything that might kill billions of people and fulfill their dreams of a secular rapture.
You want to believe them.. go ahead
"Ok, this needs to be vetted by some pros.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5269#more"
make that bill curtis.
or,
SHATNER.
i want shatner to chant my rants
There is real cognitive dissonance between what we propose our country to be and what it is proving to be.
This is the key point. The most important issue about AIG bonuses was the sense of violated social contract.
And, oh btw, Russia and China blocked the Security Council resolution on North Korea
Ken, Many thanks for all your hard work. I think I contributed...if I screwed it up, let me know and I'll try again. If not, then please accept my thanks for all your efforts.
sportsfan, the reply button is a waste right now, but I intend to add a feature that will allow you to see the comment someone is replying to in an unobtrusive way. If you used CR Companion, there was a feature where you'd right click and see the originating comment, or hover over the quoted text. It helped a lot in providing context.
I totally agree that chronological is vastly superior, especially when there are a lot of comments, and you want to see what's new. The one place seeing the thread indented would be useful might be when viewing archives; not sure on that one.
As for an ignore button, well, think CR Companion.
"Does anyone know if "not getting a paycheck" is grounds for filing for unemployment?"
If your paycheck is overdue, you should immediately contact your state labor commissioner. You'll have to decide if you want to file a complaint.
Strokes from mp and Conjure... my day is now completely made.
i want shatner to chant my rants
I CAN'T GET BEHIND THAT!
bobn, well, actually CR, Tanta, and I are ahead of Nemo. But only because we're in the initial database configuration. He was the first to register, which is what counts.
NorkaWest and mp,
You both make good points and I agree with what you said. Also noted it was interesting that NorkaWest had macro points and mp had individual points. You guys are a good team!
I guess it's the looting of the Treasury that seems to be the seminal event this time around. It really is pissing people off.
Since I already thought they were all corrupt, and always have been, that looting didn't and doesn't really surprise me.
But the personal note reminded me of a song and I've noticed no music on Hoocoodanode yet, so:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O24KixmFFc
(Now if someone would be kind enough to tell him how to change a URL to a nifty title, I'll do that in the future.)
"There is real cognitive dissonance between what we propose our country to be and what it is proving to be"
-----------------
Indeed.
And that's the good news.
The disappearance of that dissonance will not be a Good Thing.
Futures up! Time to buy!
"I dunno, do I get to blame white people for bankrupting the country, plowing us into [several unwinnable] foreign wars, destroying the domestic fabric of the Republic"
Sure! I'd raise Hell too! But then I'm already an old grumpy white guy!
Sportsfan:
{A href="URL"}link{/a}
Replace the curly braces with greater-than less-than. "URL" is the full URL, and should be embedded in quotes as depicted.
Thanks for the hard work
Mad Mullah, you can do anonymous comments, but not anonymous posts. Posts are reserved.
Ken, I gave you strokes in Beta.
Anonymous, get a handle so you can make your points and defend them.
Folks, other half tells me to step out. See you shortly.
interesting bloomberg headline
"Deflation Dead at Blackrock Makes Inflation-Linked Bonds Investor Favorite "
story to follow
mr M at 748 wrote
btw, Russia and China blocked the Security Council resolution on North Korea
----
last night i got into a pissin match with friends here
i claimed n korea doesnt wipe its ass without chinese approval
others pointed to chinas support for 6 way talks etc to which i supposed part of that is going thru the motions
(i guess the chinese like seeing n.k. eff with US)
Thank you--now, fix medical record keeping!! You can do it. If you can make this group happy, you can do anything.
Initiating standard test string:
"Mary had a little lamb,
she kept it in a bucket--
and
that Mary went,
she'd take it out an' fuck't.
(As we say in th' north...)
.
.
Result: on my system, Foxfire 3.0.1, Dell Inspiron 5100, Windows XP Home, the "ul," "ol," "li," and "br" functions do that weird thing you see above in the word "everywhere." (I would have put this in feedback, but I'm wondering if anyone else sees this too?
Since I already thought they were all corrupt, and always have been, that looting didn't and doesn't really surprise me.
There's more than that. Most of the "cop power" we saw over the last couple decades was wheezing Archie Bunker oldsters trying to fight back against a social order that had somehow escaped what was acceptable in 1954. if you were 20-30 in 1954, you're just about dead now. Their historic base of support for the current bundle of policies is based largely on support of the reactionary old. As they become the reactionary senile and the reactionary ancestors, public attitude toward the police will shift rapidly.
It would probably just be one of those social changings of the tide, except that the Republic was ruined just exactly as the transition started to pick up speed, which is the nature of such things.
If you haven't read the New Yorker article on Rahm Emanuel, you should do so.
I find it interesting that Emanuel let it be known that he agreed with Krugman, but was dissed because Krugman couldn't, or wouldn't, offer up any actionable--politically speaking--policy suggestions.
Very interesting.
Anonymous, get a handle so you can make your points and defend them.
I have a handle. I'm just too lazy to log in.
Also, you're not my dad and I'll come and go as it pleases me.
mp - what doesn't compute? that i and other people in my city are literally paying for 7 of 10 kids who go to the local public schools (grade through high) in my DMA/MSA to eat breakfast and lunch at school 9 months out of the year while their supposedly "broke" parents buy houses in my very hood and drive cars that cost 3/4 what the house cost (say 90K for house/45 car - and that is a very literal interpretation).
i do not think you understand, in all your wisdom that I greatly appreciate over the years i've been reading here, how serious this is.
there is a huge class of people who will be literally out on the streets in a few months when those of us who have been supporting them can't do it any longer.
these are not people currently on "the welfare" as one famous NOLA queen the law firm I worked at represented.
did you know it was possible to be 36 years old, acquire 14 children, and STILL NOT work a real fcuking job because as this fat-assed, two-secondary-impairments, uneducated bytch told the judge when asked why she never had a job, "i'm on the welfare."
wherever you are, mp, and as much respect as i have for you and this place, there are limits to everything as you yourself have mentioned.
the stop-loss/limit-down orders are all in or coming shortly. i don't take those facts lightly, i just know what i know and see what i see.
it's going to be ugly and all of the drama talk here i do appreciate. i don't know where my particular neck of the woods will fall in that spectrum, but i can assure you that all of the smart folks will pack up and leave as soon as it starts going down because they will literally be in danger of not getting out of their neighborhoods to go to work, or worse.
give it a year or two when cre flatlines harder than re... do you really want to be in miami when that happens (for one example)? i asked Lawyerliz and if i missed her response my apologies, but she lives on an island i understand. Kinda hard to swim at the rich through all that water. those of us inland, though...
i'm sending this b/c i'm angry and want it to be recorded somehow. take it for what it is and maybe the industry i work in won't continue melting in future months, but i'm not counting on it. those are a lot of high-paid folks who live in urban environments who won't be paying taxes, like me.
good luck with it, and good night. i will gas up, pack up, and go visit friends in "the sticks" before i get caught in the hellhole this city will become, like others.
anon, you don't need to log in ya dope
"Also, you're not my dad and I'll come and go as it pleases me."
--- i thought of 3 funny things to say to that, but feared all would be taken as an offense
im yukkin it up by myself (mental masturbation?)
i will gas up, pack up, and go visit friends in "the sticks" before i get caught in the hellhole this city will become, like others.
How my family became dirt-farming serfs, the secret lost chronicles.
If you haven't read the New Yorker article on Rahm Emanuel, you should do so.
Here is the link and a quote
“They have never worked the legislative process,” Emanuel said of critics like the Times columnist Paul Krugman, who argued that Obama’s concessions to Senate Republicans—in particular, the tax cuts, which will do little to stimulate the economy—produced a package that wasn’t large enough to respond to the magnitude of the recession. “How many bills has he passed?”
Reminds me of another man, who was wondering how many divisions the Pope had.
Another quote:
When Emanuel left the Clinton Administration, in 1998, he moved back to Chicago, took a job as an investment banker, and in less than three years earned nearly twenty million dollars.
Good night all
anon, you don't need to log in ya dope
Yes, but then I would have to put a foot down in this conversation, and I want both of them up in bed!
Thanks Ken and CR
“How many bills has he passed?”
Isn't that akin to saying "How many of his principles has he compromised?"
Better yet, "How many lobbyists has he prostituted himself for?"
@Lothar
Believe it or not, there are some of us who are just as angry as you are. Having said that, it doesn't make any sense--to me at least--to leave a good livelihood in order to make a political statement.
Or, as is likely, I don't understand all of the facts.
If patientrenter is there I'm happy to resume teaching him/her economics. I was out.
Deflation Dead at Blackrock Makes Inflation-Linked Bonds Investor Favorite
If they are talking their book, I wonder who is on the other side of the trade? I wonder which side I should take. The current real yield is a lot lower than historical real yields.
The spread between 5 year Treasuries (1.88%) and 5 year TIPs (.96% real) implies CPI inflation of .92%.
NW
These are the same people who said that 150 $/B oil was not caused by speculation.
These are the same people who cryptically advocate killing 6 billion people (preferably the darkies)
These are the same people who have been missing predictions since they started predicting.
These are the same people who masturbate on everything that might kill billions of people and fulfill their dreams of a secular rapture.
You want to believe them.. go ahead
Lucifer, you're mentally ill. Get help.
Well, this thing seems to work just fine here in the Rocky Mountains.
I see the Nemo and Jas jokes are already starting, and the regulars are logging in . . . feels like home!
Great job.
Boooyaaaayhahahaha
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_SP.M09.E
Who is a bigger threat to your future?
A black welfare queen with 14 kids.
or
A white wall streeter who blew up your pension plan.
to leave a good livelihood in order to make a political statement.
that's pretty much sums it up.... Life for the massive majority is still pretty darn good to worry about pitchforks.
I was an infrequent poster (full-time lurker) in the Haloscan era. JS-Kit was such an abortion that I rarely bothered with comments.
This looks like it could be a significant improvement over either of those. Great work, Ken!! I'm in for $25 as well.
I do hope we'll get some of the CR-Companion features, like the ability to filter irritating posters.
mp,
it doesn't make sense except that it does. they can't take what anyone doesn't make.
when i stop making anything, because my company assuredly won't hire someone to replace me, then what for the public till?
nothing.
that is how it begins. how it ends is anyone's guess.
punditry- "Life for the massive majority is still pretty darn good to worry about pitchforks."
Hopefully, it stays that way, but I have very grave doubts.
A black welfare queen with 14 kids.
or
A white wall streeter who blew up your pension plan.
regardless of color, in a resource constrained world...(yes, we are definitely in one) the bigger threat is the sum of the competition. The unrestrained family. Check china out... they understand...and are working on it
Way to go, Ken! It's innovation like this that moves the country forward!
Lucifer,
See you in hell, my friend. Those 14 kids with no jobs and no hopes who happen to be able to walk to my house, as opposed to the WS/DC folks who can't?
The Devil went down to Georgia, lookin for a soul to steal...
You lost that bet, also.
Lucifer wrote on Sun, 04/05/2009 - 8:33pm.
Who is a bigger threat to your future?
A black welfare queen with 14 kids.
or
A white wall streeter who blew up your pension plan.
----
hmmm let me see thats a hard one
ok ok ok i get it
gay couples are a threat to my marriage (the defense of marriage bill).. cause i could turn at any time
so uh welfare queens are the bigger threat cause normal women seein them queens get away with that shit/s gonna make all women pregnant and lazy
(howd i do...right answer? snark meter standing up straight as a adolescent peter
Just a reminder to everyone, in case you don't look at the hoocoodanode home page: I haven't yet imported all the posts, so if you click on archived posts right now, a phantom post appears. This will be going away soon, but in the meantime, please don't click on the comments for archived posts. It's kind of eerie seeing Tanta posts show up (much as I like to think she's still with us).
Also, any comments entered in these posts will not be kept.
I'll let you know when everything's in.
Oil Equations,
How do you know the world is 'resource constrained'?
Did a fairy tell you so? Did a voice in the bush tell you that? Did a "professor" or "expert" tell you that? Who told you that and why do you believe it?
I think you should try to understand the real reason you want to believe it.. subconciously you know that is not about 'peak oil'. It is about 'peak whites' .. You can either adapt to that world or choose not to.. it is your choice.
Behave son...Log in like a good son
How my family became dirt-farming serfs, the secret lost chronicles
said in your best Jerry Clower voice....
you are talking about a billion big big families...ok
but what about a billion bankstas
in every walk of life, every kind of employment ie non stop corruption
looks like mad max to me
Anyone thinking about buying TIPs should research the impact of deflation on "on-the-run" versus "off-the-run" bonds.
The 14 kids by the black welfare kids can be willing consumers.. if you give them the right amount of free money.
The wall streeter on the other hand will always try to steal ALL of your money (with the help of your friendly legislator and lawyer).. your choice..
Mock Turtle: Shocking I know, but let the gay folk marry. They aren't reproducing without technology anyhow.
Again, crass, I know, but....
I hear UNC is in the national b-ball championship again.
You ever wonder how they keep getting back there over and over?
Kentucky's not paying the kid's enough, but that's going to change.
Thanks all, this is quite a pressure reliever for me. I thought I was the dumb one here but now, ahem....
Anonymous Dad wrote on Sun, 04/05/2009 - 8:45pm.
Behave son...Log in like a good son
---
anonymous son, " hey dad, is that you?"
test
The world has always been resource constrained. It's a tiny little planet .
I think you should try to understand the real reason you want to believe it
Conversely, you should try to understand the real reason you don't want to believe it.
hey no problem im an idiot but at least i know it
btw
i believe in gay marriage
why should hetero couples be the only ones to suffer:)
FTR, the 14 kid welfare queen du jour is decidedly white. I take it everyone outside of SoCal hasn't been bombarded with the ongoing saga of "Octomom"? If so, you are soooo lucky!
when i hear booyah i short the market.
just wait for those 2nd QTR results.
they are gonna stab the cheese frog.
Ken Cooper- there will be no money, but when you die, you will receive total enlightenment.
(Did I crib that quote correctly?) Oh well, guess I'll have to chip in.
ps i have no problem with gay marriage, or three ways or what ever
im a libertarian when it comes to stuff like this
consenting adults and if nobody is getting physically hurt (well i guess a little soft s and m is ok
personally im old school but believe in freedom
Ken,
Nice work. For those who haven't been paying much attention the past 3-4 months of this blog; donations go to where?
It's nice to see the economic crises is over. Guess I can go buy a house now.
I find it interesting that Emanuel let it be known that he agreed with Krugman, but was dissed because Krugman couldn't, or wouldn't, offer up any actionable--politically speaking--policy suggestions.
Emanuel is a much better operator than Obama is, and there will come a time when his political concerns will trump those of the moneyed interests. He's the accountant of BO's political capital, so to speak.
Every policy being proposed has built in political cover for a policy reversal, even down to the public language the players are using. The more you hear Emanuel's name in the press, the greater the chance this thing is going 180. Keep your powder dry.
Lothar:
Please do a 3-point survey before you do anything job-wise:
(1) Listen to your head (think this through);
(2) listen to your heart (is it who you are or want to be); and
(3) listen to your gut (does it feel right).
If they agree, then sleep on it overnight.
If they still agree the next day, you've made your decision.
NW
P.S. Maybe you can talk your boss into laying you off, unemployment insurance can help cover COBRA payment.
test test test...
Zzzzz...
NorkaWest, thanks for the psych profile. My boss took credit for everything I researched and passed on the past 5 years. I was trying to prove my worth, etc., but...
Maybe you don't work in the kind of corporate environment I do. Good for you.
There are a lot of other information sources out there you could read to find out just why this isn't working, but I'd hate to bother you with them.
I'm hanging on but doing things for other co-workers who have either gone on leave or are so incredibly clueless that I have to cover up for them.
When they want me to help them advance after they've F-ed up their efforts, put that pressure on me and co-workers, and all, well, that's when...
Some smart people hive off, take lower incomes (initially) to prove the "smart folks" were just shysters, and then...
Well, it's still lower payment/taxes all around.
Bet on black or red?
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/0403.html
It seems that we take our good fortune for granted, and when fortune turns ugly we lament the world’s unfairness. What do those who are blessed by fortune really know about the unfairness of the world? If the U.S. economy collapses and America goes hungry, will we remember the misfortunes of Bangladesh, Biafra, or Sudan? If millions suffer abroad, do we imagine that we are immune? The happiness of America, suggests Philosophy, is chance happiness. By its very nature, this happiness cannot last. It is temporal, it is transitory. One day our material happiness must turn to physical suffering and misery. This seems impossible to you, I know. You do not believe in Philosophy. You believe in your continued prosperity, that the economy will recover, that the barbarians will remain on the far side of the frontier, that your military is forever strong. But power and prosperity have made you stupid, so you are deluded. You have forgotten that whatever goes up must come down. That is the way of the world. Philosophy says to Boethius: “To him that enjoys it, happiness may seem full of delight, but he cannot prevent it slipping away when it will. It is evident, therefore, how miserable the happiness of human life is; it does not remain long with those who are patient, and doesn’t satisfy those who are troubled.”
Did the death od Haloscan mark the end of the bear market,. CR won't be so much fun if the markets just keep aimlessly shoot towards the moon every day.
If you haven't read the New Yorker article on Rahm Emanuel, you should do so.
Doing so, mp and good quote and link, MrM.
Emanuel is right about one thing: Krugman has never had to pass a bill. . . or work in a sausage factory.
Politics is still the art of compromise. The world is full of great ideas that never saw the light of day.
lothar,
Take it easy if min wage is the best case scenario you are looking at. Maybe a week long vacation is what you need.
sportsfan,
Better to pass a bad bill vs. not pass anything and risk looking like they're not "doing something".
REBear, thanks, but... http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2009/04/times_co_threat.html
And no, I don't work there. Associated industry, if anyone must know.
Lothar, if you're still online,
I had a lot of respect for the Buddhist Monks who protested the Diem regime by public self-immolation.
I see no reason for you to protest in that manner.
Life is good; just enjoy it as best as you can. If you can enjoy life without a job, that's great. If you're just protesting something and hurting yourself in the process, then please note that this country doesn't care very much about pubic self-immolation.
One recurring problem with idiots is that they are sure that they know the "truth", and can see the "future".
I claim neither, because I can appreciate that I do not know the full extent of reality, but I also appreciate that there are more possibilities than I am aware of. The only way to move anywhere is to explore possibilities, rather than rejecting them because they do not fit in your model of the universe, history, dogma, BS or comfort zone.
Using the past to predict the future is fraught with peril.. multicellular life as we know it today came rather late in earths history (500-600 million yrs ago).. it could not have been predicted as the previous 3 billion years had only seen bacterial colonies and a few primitive sponge/jellyfish like creatures.. using that info nobody could have foreseen back-boned organisms arise in less than 15 million years... but that is what happened.. while the first backbones were not calcified and the first eyes were just a collection of light sensitive cells with a covering of thickened transparent skin cells... this is how it began for animals with backbones (chordates)
Teste
For those who haven't been paying much attention the past 3-4 months of this blog; donations go to where?
CR seems to have pulled the tip jar about the time he went with online ads.
Sportsfan: "...then please note that this country doesn't care very much about pubic self-immolation".
Hey, Beavis, he said 'pubic....', hehehe.... Yeah, Butthead, KC will have to add a spell chucker, huhuhu!
Seriously, thanks for the new system, and I second the request for getting some companion fucntionality back up.
BS
I really find it amazing that nobody here discusses Peak Oil and the simple fact that easy access to hydrocarbons has fueled our industries and a global population that is approaching 7 billion. Its just really amazing to me, that in spite of all the brilliant minds here at CR, the energy problem hasn't been addressed. Everything is BAU (business as usual), thinking that eventually infinite growth will at some point resume.
I guess good luck with that?
I really find it amazing that nobody here discusses Peak Oil
Newbie?
Sportsfan,
I have no plans to self-immolate, though the thought has occurred.
Everyone else (thank you for the comments): this is not going to go as well as even the most positive people say.
It just isn't. The arguments are there for and against, but the reality is just what it is.
A bunch of banksters wrote a bunch of paper for a lot of physical assets that never had a chance of paying out, and they're still overbuilding while not selling.
I know it's complex, and I read way too much info not to know what's going on, so please spare me.
I've got FHA loans on either side of me and one house is rotting from wood outside and who knows inside. Married couple who lost one income after a medical issue, and now they're stuck trying to pay for both the house and the medical on one lower income (truck driver, CDL, but since we all know tonnage has dropped off a cliff...)
We will print the money and all, but then what?
I lived through the 70s and it's not something I care to repeat. My still alive 90+ year old grandmother shares worse about the 30s.
Newbie?
Obviously.
Max, it can't be too long before we're flooded with people claiming we're all doom & gloom, the worst is past, and nothing but happy days are ahead. Given that this bear rally can last a while, it's going to be a long summer (pun intended).
Better to pass a bad bill vs. not pass anything and risk looking like they're not "doing something".
TJ, I didn't take it that way if you're referring to the stimulus bill (which was the subject of the Emanuel reference).
Obama wanted a stimulus bill. He needed 3 Republican votes in the Senate. They cost tax cuts. Tax cuts (beyond the ones in current paychecks) are not stimulative. That was the price. If you want it, you pay the price.
He could have let it fail and said: "Well, I tried to fix the economy, but those obstructionist Republicans and so on . .",.but he didn't do that. He really is trying to get it right. He really has extended a hand and not just to the London bobby.
Whether anything will work at this point is still an open question. I can't get past the hundreds of trillions of CDS yet.
Testing from my crack berry. I can post from work now!!
Testing from my crack berry. I can post from work now!!
Not at all, I've been following this board for at least 18 months now, but I've not seen anything substantive regarding the idea, "How do we fuel this expected recovery?" The production declines are very real, look to Cantarell for a very close and immediate example, Ghawar is looking to be next, and the Net Export Theory is downright scary.
Peak oil is a scam.. It always has been..
It has never been about hydrocarbon depletion.. If hydrocarbon depletion was the issue we have ways to fix that.. from using nuclear reactors to process heavy oil, fischer tropsch to process coal.. or electrifying transportation with uranium and thorium based reactors..
It has never been about resource depletion. Peak oil is about misanthropism and eugenics disguised in the latest fashionable trend.
Fortunately we live in a world where technology has spread to an extent where the potential victims of such eugenic scams (you know.. colored people) can inflict multiple extinction level events on the idiots who want to keep up the old order and play god because they feel that their skin color entitles them to a certain position.
test
Just about popped a blood vessel waiting for the peak oil responses.
Great stuff Ken.. thanks so much for all of your hard work
Gubbmint
Bill Hicks, careful lest you suffer the wrath of Crispy and the Dawg...
Ken, thanks very much for this. Already seeing people on here who I'd been missing. Off to look for my paypal password.
Bush Survivor, thanks, the edit function worked 20 minutes after the comment first appeared.
Yeah, peak oil does make it to the subject matter from time to time. Unfortunately, some are still in denial.
Lothar, glad to see you were/are still here. Hope you didn't think my metaphor was too extreme, but really take it all for what it is and live through it to the other side.
From what I've heard, bosses always take credit for the work of their subordinates. It's one of the reasons I could not survive in a corporate environment. Before I left, though, in the mid 70s, I had a plan to make it elsewhere.
You should be working on a plan at this point.
JMHO.
Uh oh, now you're in trouble.
I've been following this board for at least 18 months now, but I've not seen anything substantive regarding the idea, "How do we fuel this expected recovery?"
For that particular discussion you might have better luck on a board that expects a recovery.
Yes, let's discuss "Peak oil",...but it has to be a discussion, and you can't post anything that hasn't already been hashed over twenty times before and there has to be a chance you will change your mind. We'll put that discussion at the top of our agenda, right after the whole "Existence of God" discussion is settled, after all, which is more important? Okay, Pavel, I believe you had the floor and then lawyerliz?
Oooops, let's put that Israel question ahead of Peak Oil.
Err, and Global Warming.
Darn, now we've the the goldbugs wanting their turn. I told them after the Inflation/Deflation debate.
Crap, who'd a thought getting one simple question answered would be so hard?
Lothar:
I think I've lived your frustrations. I spent 5 years working in Fortune 500 energy companies and survived the mergers and layoffs; 5 years in insurance finance and investments with the attendant consolidations, mergers, and layoffs; and 12 years in a public/private equity firm where the bosses spent more time fighting each other over splitting the bonus pool than finding good investments. Every three years (after establishing a suitably long performance record), the investment team would quit and set up a competing shop. I would then have to prove myself to a new set of ego maniacs who had no appreciation of the potential damage a screwed up investment operations and accounting function could do to an investment firm.
After getting myself in a financial situation where I could survive for a couple of years without working, I gave them a month's notice. I had to do it because I found myself sitting at work thinking about ways that I could seriously damage the firm. It would have taken just a few keystrokes and I could wipeout 15 years of accounting data. Without this accounting data, the firm could not market its historical performance. The bosses would not know that the data was missing until they had to prove some historical performance numbers during an SEC examination. Without the proof, the SEC would shut down marketing until the data could be reconstructed. It would have seriously fucked them and cost them a lot of money.
But I didn't do it.
I listened to my heart. I imagined myself to be a professional and intentionally sabotaging your employer is not professional, though emotionally satisfying.
I listened to my head. I knew that I could swing it financially by taking a few consulting jobs. I had made certain that my skill set was up to date and marketable.
After making the decision, I slept on it. The next day, it still felt right. It was a relief, once the decision was made.
"Peak oil is about misanthropism and eugenics disguised in the latest fashionable trend."
That makes zero sense whatsoever. Eugenics? WTF?
As far as using nuclear reactors, how long do you think it'll take to build enough reactors to replace hydrocarbons? A decade at an optimum (more like two decades)? What happens in that decade? Or the infrastructure to replace them, with what money? Or the political and economic will to even embark upon such an adventure?
I don't want you to get the wrong idea, I am all in favor of alternative energy *and* nuclear, but do we really have it in us to fill the gap? What happens in the gap? It is a huge issue, and its been shoved under the rug. The same kind of shortsightedness and lack of critical thinking that has landed us where we are currently.
Bill Hicks,
The previous discussions were mostly whether the pricing in Summer 2008 was due to peak being reached or simple market speculation.
I'm in the peak has been reached camp. Demand destruction has clouded that reality from view for now, but will rear its head in a most ugly fashion once (well, maybe I should say if) demand (worldwide) ever reaches the level it was at before the U.S. economy went into shut down mode.
I still think the article linked by Oil Equations on TheOilDrum and Seeking Alpha goes beyond what political reality is acceptable to the U.S. government or population and thus will not fly for a long time.
Your inputs on the subject would be welcomed . . . even by those with differing views on the subject.
Max, it can't be too long before we're flooded with people claiming we're all doom & gloom, the worst is past, and nothing but happy days are ahead.
I wish. I only get really nervous when everyone agrees. Seriously, I welcome the debate.
Speaking of debate, did Werner make it onto the new system yet?
For that particular discussion you might have better luck on a board that expects a recovery.
Yalt, great comeback line.
'Just about popped a blood vessel waiting for the peak oil responses.'
And I'm still waiting for the global cooling ones, myself.
But since peak oil is about production, and you seem a fan about making predictions, I wonder what your prediction would be for oil production in deepwater with an oil price of say 60 dollars a barrel.
After all, the U.S. is currently producing oil at a rate last seen in 1946 and Alaskan oil production in the pipeline is now less than when the pipeline started operation, which means somebody's production needs to keep growing.
And that means investment, of course.
Since you believe that debt needs to be wrung out of the system, I do wonder where the capital for those massive projects will come from, such investments involving massive amounts of debt.
Oh, and yes - please do address the point about Cantarell, using available data, because I'm sure that someone with your skills at identifying global cooling will have no difficulty bringing the same crisply bold analytical skills to what is one of the more intriguing available examples of modern production techniques and what that means in terms of production curves.
Let's just say that Cantarell fits perfectly into a world of cliff diving - 'Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, said crude output fell 9.2 percent in January as its largest field plunged at the second-fastest rate ever.
Production dropped to 2.685 million barrels a day, from 2.957 million barrels a year earlier, Pemex, as the Mexico City- based company is known, said today in a statement. Pemex extracted 772,000 barrels a day from Cantarell, the world’s third-largest field, a decline of 38 percent from a year earlier.
“If the question is, what is Pemex going to do in the short-term to prevent the falling production?” George Baker, a Houston-based energy consultant who publishes the newsletter Mexico Energy Intelligence, said in an interview. “I’m afraid the answer is nothing.” '
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=afoFo1pYB4dY&refer=l...
Until next time.
Good night and good luck.
"Just about popped a blood vessel waiting for the peak oil responses. "
I'd really like for you to disentegrate my predisposition that hydrocarbons are becoming ever-so-expensive to bring to the marketplace and that supergiant oil fields aren't being depleted in a most horrific fashion As an addendum, you should include your philosophy of actually why we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.
Rob, I think you are a very intelligent person of this community, I value your posts, even if I am pretty much opposite of the political spectrum. I did mention this before. What I cannot understand, inspite of your abilities to analyze the markets, is your complete alienation of the bedrock of the markets, and that is energy. Cheap, mobile, fungible energy. Energy that is becoming more expensive to get, develop and deliver.
Its a bell curve. Lots of curves can be superimposed on it.
Obama wanted a stimulus bill.
Exactly my point. The content wasn't dictated by conviction as to results as much as a necessity to "do something". All he needed was a bill that spent lots of money and was named stimulus.
If Krugman is right, they didn't go nearly far enough. If I'm right, they were wasting their time and our money.
Oh, and the Dem vs. Rep thing? Simply a matter of prioritizing the pork. During the Bush administration the Reps got the lion's share, throwing bones to the Dems as necessary. Now the shoe's on the other foot. It's all still pork, just renamed to sell it to the masses. Totally disgusting.
Bill Hicks wrote on Sun, 04/05/2009 - 9:56pm.
...As far as using nuclear reactors, how long do you think it'll take to build enough reactors to replace hydrocarbons? A decade at an optimum (more like two decades)? What happens in that decade? Or the infrastructure to replace them, with what money? Or the political and economic will to even embark upon such an adventure?
As calculated here previously 1/2 of TARP I would have been enough to solar roof and meet 1/3rd of the nation's electricity demand. The subsequent fossil repercussions would have paid us back in a few months of balance of payments.
There's never enough money to do things right and now it appears there's more than enough to do things wrong.
Bill Hicks:
We had the Peak Oil fight years ago. Dawg really chewed on my ankles. I recall that Crispy & Cole ably assisted him.
I believe that cheap hydrocarbons are going to become scarce, that petroleum prices are going to become much more volatile with an upside bias, and that Dawg is going to mark my sandbox for saying so.
Let's not rekindle that old fight, unless everyone is drunk enough for some serious "Drunk Blogging".
As calculated here previously 1/2 of TARP I would have been enough to solar roof and meet 1/3rd of the nation's electricity demand.
I had all of TARP paying for 1/4 US electricity demand. (Please don't make me show my work.) Still a much better use.
The real problem with oil is that 70% of its use is for transportation. Even if we max out the use of all of the alternative energy sources, that at most deals with 30% of the problem. We can conserve some from increasing fuel efficiency. Expanding use of public transportation (light rail, electrified high-speed trains, etc.) can only have a limited effect. The big problem ultimately is heavy trucking and load hauling. Currently, there is no alternative to hydrocarbons that I am aware of for that purpose.
For those of you who doubt that oil is a depleting resource, ask yourself this question: why aren't the old wells filling back up? Why is it that all of the new sources of oil require far more cost and energy to extract than the old ones? The formula ERoEI (energy returned on energy invested) has to be considered even if you think that there is an abundant source of oil. You still have to have some net gain in energy from its extraction.
is anyone else here familiar with the russian ukranian theory of oil genesis?
if that is true, and oil was found below he strata where plant life began then it was formed by deep earth processes. that would make peak oil studies misleading.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4847685/Comparing-RussianUkrainian-Abiotic-The...
i tend to the idea that oil merchants would prefer we believe there is limited oil. remember 150bbl? that went quickly. whenever alternatives like tar sands or renewables become cost competitive oil seems to drop and wipe out the competition.
gotta wonder... .
NorkaWest,
Thank you. And as well to any other folks who I may have missed replies from.
I'm going to sleep. Not enough as usual, but it is what it is.
I was raised on "this too shall pass."
Not so sure I believe it any more, but I'm willing to throw down a bet just in case.
Pure pr: go check out some Rottie videos, whether they are working, playing, whatever.
They are magnificent beasts and the one who I owned (or owned me) for 10 years... wouldn't trade it/him for anything.
Let's not rekindle that old fight, unless everyone is drunk enough for some serious "Drunk Blogging".
It's Sunday night, isn't it. Maybe we could save that for a Friday?
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature's
laboratory!"
--advertisement for "Kier's Rock Oil," 1855
* ". . . the United States [has] enough petroleum to keep its
kerosene
lamps burning for only four years . . . "
--Pennsylvania State Geologist Wrigley, 1874
* ". . . although an estimated two-thirds of our reserve is still
in the
ground, . . . the peak of [U.S.] production will soon be
passed--possibly
within three years."
--David White, Chief Geologist, USGS, 1919
* " . . . it is unsafe to rest in the assurance that plenty of
petroleum
will be found in the future merely because it has been in the past."
--L. Snider and B. Brooks, AAPG Bulletin, 1936
I'm BACK!
Rob Dawg (member) Just about popped a blood vessel waiting for the peak oil responses.
roflmao ...
Bill hicks....
wait til the commetns are all synched.... you've got lots of reading to do.
PS;
Jesus Christ. I actually made a few ripples in this pond.
Best luck to all, you have no idea how much I admire this forum.
Lucifer wrote on Sun, 04/05/2009 - 9:43pm.
Peak oil is a scam.. It always has been..
It has never been about hydrocarbon depletion.. If hydrocarbon depletion was the issue we have ways to fix that.. from using nuclear reactors to process heavy oil, fischer tropsch to process coal.. or electrifying transportation with uranium and thorium based reactors..
It has never been about resource depletion. Peak oil is about misanthropism and eugenics disguised in the latest fashionable trend.
Fortunately we live in a world where technology has spread to an extent where the potential victims of such eugenic scams (you know.. colored people) can inflict multiple extinction level events on the idiots who want to keep up the old order and play god because they feel that their skin color entitles them to a certain position.
Seriously, you have major issues. Why don't you take your racist crap somewhere else.
Damn, Crispy, don't go confusing "Peak Oil" with "Global Warming". Two entirely different topics.
p.s.: Notice how since "Global Warming" is losing credibility they've subtly changed the language to "Climate Change"?
Bill, I've been asking the same question and the only answer I get is the sound of crickets. Unless some sort of disruptive game-changer comes along _and_ gets societal support, there's nothing. We spend 25 years living on credit, and the rest of the world spent 25 years enabling us. Our wealth is gone; the international industrial complex that fed us goodies is grinding to a halt, because nearly _all_ it is designed to do is sell consumer items to first-world countries. And now we can't afford to buy them.
Something good may come out of this -- but getting there won't be fun. Or safe.
oh ya.. have you read peak oil forums and boards. It is people like you who are racist but do not have the balls to say it loud. Grow a pair!
"Seriously, you have major issues. Why don't you take your racist crap somewhere else."
then again if our entire civilization is based on oil and our entire civilization is crumbling it makes sense that oil prices would collapse. as someone above pointed out, there are lots of ways to get oil from coal and oil sands. supposedly there are huge deposits of utah oil shale. brazil found a mega oil field, iraq is rumored to have considerably more oil than reported, everyone is looking to exploit the arctic, and on.
sure, known fields like mexico's and the north sea are played out. however, considering everything plus our recent experience with the oil price spike suggests that there is an upper limit to the price of oil. hyper inflation coupled with steady consumption could move the price to it but i would be amazed to see 200bbl oil within 2 years.
if it happens, great. we must change the car world.
"Bill hicks....
wait til the commetns are all synched.... you've got lots of reading to do."
I've already done my reading. What I don't get is the idea that this issue has been thrown aside for whatever reason. Its a real issue. Its BAU vs. something else.
Financial meltdown vs. recovery. Assuming all bets are good, recovery. With whose oilfield? Certainly not Pemex'.
Thank you Ken! and thank you CR!!!!
In case any of you are interested-
Newer technology to extract shale gas has really screwed up the natural gas depletion models of all these peak oil a**holes. Sad but true.. You have to dig more wells (and more often) but you can find shale gas far more easily that conventional natural gas.
The forerunners of these same twits also said that north sea and alaska oil would be too expensive to extract...
I think we should put peak oilers in the same incinerators as those used to dispose of financial modelers and climate modelers. Modeling systems that are complex and poorly understood is a recipe for failure.
y, it's a Great real issue....But it's taking a backseat to the credit implosion.
There are those here who believe that Peak Oil=Leveraged Speculation(cc)
And then there are those who believe Leverage Speculation + Peak Oil=Demand Destruction(cb)
that's where were at now....and it's working.the plan IS working.
you've got lots of reading to do." at this site! PO has been beat to pulp here...that's why you got fifteen responses in 10 minutes.
Repeat after me; "All energy is fungible." Is there any discussion on this point? Every joule that comes from nuclear or solar or gains in efficiency or deep sea hydrates or room temperature superconduction or regenerative interial recovery is a joule less of whatever is the most expensive energy alternative. When we stop using oil and natgas for super inefficient electric point source generation those geopetrol commodities are freed up to provide transportation fuels. Sempra Energy has a standby natgas powered peak load generator about 30km from my home. It only comes on line durring peak demand periods which in Southern California are also the brightest sunny summer days when my 50m^2 rooftop cells would be most useful. That's why I commented that it would be in the local electric companies' best interests to subsidize my solar array. Like I said, fungible. See Dilbert:
http://tinyurl.com/b7vug
I think people miss the point of my tedious repetions of the timeworn examples of Malthus, Erlich, Club of Rome Hubbert, et al. Point being; THEY'VE ALWAYS BEEN WRONG. And every time it was because of events/circumstances they never envisioned. Given 3 centuries of uniformly unbroken failure of the limits crowd it is a suckers bet to think they finally got this one right. My personal bets for their "I never thought of that" excuses are RTSC, amorphous solar, monopoles and Fullerenes. Physics has no limits. I met Buckminster Fuller once, second or third smartest man I've ever met. They just don't operate on the same plane as we mere mortals. I've no doubt that were he around to comment on global warming he'd recommend patience.
Platinum or Palladium? I expect if we run short we'll whip up a few geneticaly modified blue-green algae to extract what we need from seawater. Problem is I don't think we have enough expertise to target valuable materials and there will most likely also be collected tons of junk metals like Gold and Wolfram.
In some sense the US economy was spared the bullet by the reduction of demand for oil because of the financial crisis. Imagine if we were already deeply in the downside of the oil peak, and gas remained at $4.00/gal or higher AND we had the recession/depression at the same time. Someday that will happen, because despite the denialists, there is a limit on petroleum to be exploited and the clock is ticking. We should be using this respite to do a crash conversion of every element of energy to get sustainable, but even the modest plan in front of us is likely not to pass ("We can't afford it", the conservatives say). Well, we can't afford not to, IMO.
It seems to me that the first clues that the US was in economic trouble hit the public with the gas price skyrocket. It hit the economy hard. Then the WS blowup.
A commenter above said that transport was the reason we had no alternative to oil. That's probably right, unless fundamentals are reconsidered. Much of long haul transport can go by rail (much less expensively) and the rail can be electric. Short haul (local delivery) could be done with renewable energy smaller trucks (bio, battery). These changes will be expensive beyond belief, but will also create long lasting jobs here in the US.
The task ahead is not for incrementalist tinkering. Fundamental restructuring will be required, and every aspect of life will be impacted. We avoid making that hard decision for lots of reasons, but some of the required changes may not be possible later on if faith in government and ourselves is gone, and Mad Max rules our society.
Food for thought (or debate, as it may be):
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Pioneer%20Oil%20Producers%20Society.pdf
Repeat after me; "All energy is fungible."
OMG....you really did'nt jsut say that.
pulls cap down in shame ,shaking head.
Rob I agree. Nothing is absolute pick because all of the raw materials could be substituted given technology level is advanced enough. The real question is all about cost.
As of
"we'll whip up a few geneticaly modified blue-green algae to extract what we need from seawater"
don't need algae, there is an experimental plant on the east cost that does just that by using electrolysis, membranes, etc. Seawater is a great resource, however the cost of extracting materials out of it is still a bit too high.
tj, my National Geo link is bad. There is a special "Energy " issue on newstands now...loooking for it
I agree!!
Predictions about the distant future (past 5-10 years) will almost always fail.
Kelvin and many other smart physicist thought that powered heavier than air flight was not possible. The wrights proved them wrong.
Until 1938, most respectable scientists did not accept that controllable nuclear fission was possible. Lisa Meitner and Otto Hahn thought otherwise.
People dismissed and mocked Goddard as a dreamer when he said that liquid-fueled rockets would take people to the moon. Von Braun did not care.
I can go on and on..
//I think people miss the point of my tedious repetions of the timeworn examples of Malthus, Erlich, Club of Rome Hubbert, et al. Point being; THEY'VE ALWAYS BEEN WRONG. And every time it was because of events/circumstances they never envisioned. Given 3 centuries of uniformly unbroken failure of the limits crowd it is a suckers bet to think they finally got this one right. My personal bets for their "I never thought of that" excuses are RTSC, amorphous solar, monopoles and Fullerenes. Physics has no limits. I met Buckminster Fuller once, second or third smartest man I've ever met. They just don't operate on the same plane as we mere mortals. I've no doubt that were he around to comment on global warming he'd recommend patience.//
Seawater is a great resource, however the cost of extracting materials out of it is still a bit too high.
Hell, the cost of extracting potable water out of seawater is still a bit too high. As with oil, the alternatives won't be properly explored until we exhaust all the available cheap stuff. Nonetheless, I still find it laughable that we here in SoCal suffer droughts while sitting next to the world's largest body of water.
"All energy is fungible."
At varying costs. I think you make my point. Its very easy to to go to a convenience store and fill up a bucket intended for your lawn mower.
I guess the point of this post is, 'You actually met Buckminster Fuller?'
I knew there was a reason I liked you.
These changes will be expensive beyond belief,
In comparison to what? Not doing them? I don't deny that oil production should have hit its max, but the question is really: what are we going to do about it? My answer? Not a damn thing until we're forced to. You say too little too late? Well, duh,...that's how we operate in this world.
People dismissed and mocked Goddard as a dreamer when he said that liquid-fueled rockets would take people to the moon. Von Braun did not care.
At WPI the building he set on fire is named after him.
Ah, if only Misean were here, he could add a few comments on glod. It's almost like the old CR again. Night all.
Nope.. it is less than 25c per gallon.. much less if you use nuclear reactors and well engineered plants.
Newsstand-Only Issue, ‘Energy for Tomorrow: Repowering the Planet,’ Presents Clear-Eyed Insight into Energy Challenges and Potential Solutions to Energy Security
Interviews Include Q&A with Secretary of Energy Steven Chu in Which He Advocates
Move Toward Nuclear Reactors in Place of Coal-Fired Power Plants
- National Geographic magazine, long committed to in-depth coverage of the environment, is publishing an essential primer focusing on the current energy landscape and what it might look like in the future. The newsstand-only special issue, Energy for Tomorrow: Repowering the Planet, goes on sale around the country Tuesday, March 31.
Experts predict that world consumption of energy will increase by an astounding 50 percent by 2030. How can we meet this need without harming the planet? What alternative energy resources might we be able to tap into — and which ones make sense? In tackling these pressing questions, the special issue also sheds light on energy challenges we face today, the role of energy in our lives, the actual cost of power and the possible paths to the future.
I have heard figures about a dollar per barrel of DW .. Not too shabby.
nobody ever bites on R-U theory. oh well.
"It appears that, unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena. "
"The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not controversial nor presently a matter of academic debate. The period of debate about this extensive body of knowledge has been over for approximately two decades (Simakov 1986). The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock."
http://www.questionsquestions.net/docs04/peakoil1.html
New Post: Sunday Night Futures
best to all, CR
out of it is still a bit too high
Pub Rules
The beer is always free tomorrow
Do you realize that the majority of satellites in orbit today have been launched on rockets propelled by hydrazines and nitrogen tetroxide (two toxic chemicals).
Would you have guessed that these chemicals could ever be used safely and reliably in rocket launchers? People started testing hypergolic fuels because they were desperate to find fuels that were easy to control in an engine.. oxygen and kerosene/ alcohol are far trickier to use than you might think.
A modern properly tested hypergolic rocket launcher has a success rate of over 99%.. but it took many accidents and disasters to get there.
'Hubbert' ?
First, a bit of background -
'Hubbert was born in San Saba, Texas. He attended the University of Chicago, where he received his B.S. in 1926, his M.S. in 1928, and his Ph.D in 1937, studying geology, mathematics, and physics. He worked as an assistant geologist for the Amerada Petroleum Company for two years while pursuing his Ph.D. He joined the Shell Oil Company in 1943, retiring from that firm in 1964. After he retired from Shell, he became a senior research geophysicist for the United States Geological Survey until his retirement in 1976. He also held positions as a professor of geology and geophysics at Stanford University from 1963 to 1968, and as a professor at UC Berkeley from 1973 to 1976.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert
Now to Hubbert's basic point - 'The Hubbert curve projects the rate of oil production over time, and is the main component of Hubbert peak theory. It was first proposed by geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the mid 1950s during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. [1] The Hubbert curve has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources, as well a prominence in peak oil discussions.
Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to accurately predict that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_curve
Hmm - empirical data, a theory with a testable result, and the result broadly matches the prediction. And seing how American oil production, including Alaska, is below the level of 1948, I have yet to see where Hubbert was 'wrong.'
So that leads to this -
'The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory
Again, all empirically based, though technology and economics do have an impact on the curve. Offshore production is concerned with maximizing output in a high cost environment, leading to a differently shaped curve - after all, those platforms are not left at sea pumping a few hundred barrels a day, unlike a stripper well. But Norway's and the UK's data and production declines are well documented, so it is at least possible to refine a model based on a basic tenet (oil is finite in any reasonable human time scale), physical observations (how much oil is a well, field, region, planet producing), and a basic conclusion (production will rise, then fall).
Please, do demonstrate see how any of that is 'false.'
And as for 'fungible energy.' Nice handwaving - first you went from talking about reserves and how they 'grow' (which is beside the point, and the physical reserves themselves don't grow anyways - the amount of oil in the ground remains unchanged regardless of the number attached to the quantity) , then to talking about how the world has run short of 10 dollar oil, and now you are talking about how energy is fungible.
Which is so trite as to be meaningless - after all, oil is just sunlight, right? Have a sunny day, in the best of all possible worlds.
I'm fascinated withThe New Yorker article on Rahm Emanuel. I could never trust a guy who didn't use profanity once in a while (okay frequently, but to make a point).
Ken, you've done great work in a very short time. This thread has held up extremely well under a huge number of comments (and I suspect CR is stress testing the process by not reposting).
My contribution comes tomorrow when I will have access to a more secure system. I don't use Paypal on this one..
Goodnight, all.
Here's hoping that we really don't have to wait until 2063 for Zefram Cochrane to demonstrate his warp drive.
"because they were desperate to find fuels that were easy to control in an engine"
a small correction - i think it is a "kick" per metric unit of fuel that caused humans to use those fuels in rockets, etc.
Oil Equations wrote on Mon, 04/06/2009 - 6:16am.
Ok, this needs to be vetted by some pros.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5269#more
The countries behind this push towards a 'petro-dollar' are not that organised, trustworthy and/or transparent, IMO, and will thusly not get this thing off the ground.
A similar example is the The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which has been trying to form a single currency for more than a decade, but have never passed the talking stage because they are a) disorganised, b) secretive and c) don't trust each other.
@ Lothar and others who want to quit their jobs - A colleague once mused that the worst thing you can do to your company is keep hanging on and collecting a check. All quitting does is solve their problem of getting rid of you.
This may not pertain to your particular situation, but it is often the case.
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testes,
your quoting in Latin makes me testy... actually, in 16th century England Latin replaced Attic Greek as the basis for law, use in Parliament, etc because those
who used Greek were seen as more affected, more pretentious... and Latin was viewed as more plebeian.
I studied Greek at university (Columbia) and if I had to do it over again I'd take Latin... otherwise, always have to translate the roman alphabet into the Cyrillic
and use some mumbo jumbo to get to the base....
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Testing the new comment system.
Hmm... Let's see... Oh, nice FFox spell checker works AND a preview? Very Nice!
