Comments for "More Retail Space Coming"
Nemo says:
Well, we're going to need it to handle all of the new consumption during the second-half recovery.
Nemo Thu Mar 26 14:05:32 2009 CDT #
Mortgage Hangover says:
DB put up last night's South Park. They nailed it.
http://dailybail.com/home/financial-comedy-genius-south-park-is-in-recession-and-needs.html
"South Park Is In Recession and Needs a Bailout."
Mortgage Hangover Thu Mar 26 14:07:25 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/6179086949917073114
CRbot Thu Mar 26 14:08:04 2009 CDT #
Doe the Don says:
I think this is priced in. The URE is only $2.60. How much lower could it go?
Doe the Don Thu Mar 26 14:09:02 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Daily Bail, can you please stick to one handle so I can have CRbot ignore you. Thanks.
briwerk Thu Mar 26 14:09:37 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
the 3:00 short cover and going long squeeze is almost upon us.
Basel Too Thu Mar 26 14:10:29 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
In my village, we have a Circuit City, Linens-n-Things and Mervyns all in the same 1/2 block - Empty.
bearly Thu Mar 26 14:11:26 2009 CDT #
alybaba says:
Lovely.
Also, how appropriate:
Freedom Tower’s First Tenant to Be Chinese Property Developer
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avEyG9qkkaDk&refer=home
alybaba Thu Mar 26 14:11:41 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
Imagine my surprise when Daily Bail sock puppeted me the other night. And my comments mostly suck.
Sexy Derivative Thu Mar 26 14:11:54 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
@briwerk
I am here but I didn't post that link.
@ Sexy Derivative
That was my girlfriend who posted under your handle a few times (she writes a few of the stories for the site. she's a law professor here at IU so she's pretty on top of things.)
The funny part is she wasn't knowingly stealing your handle. That's just the name she chose for herself on my account when she posted. (You both have good taste, apparently) She has also used Mortgage T & A before and a few others.
Sorry for the mix-up. I told her to use something else next time.
Steve
Parent Post
The Daily Bail Thu Mar 26 14:43:13 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Shop 'til ya drop!
debtinator Thu Mar 26 14:15:24 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
To understand CRE in a nutshell, just look at the CityCenter project in Vegas.
CRE is turning into a disaster that, beyond what experts expected, will be much worse than the 1990s bust.
iceman Thu Mar 26 14:16:10 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
From last thread. Probably cheating 'cause I bet it's more readable now.
For those of us lacking your extensive knowledge of other historical cultures and dynasties, please help me understand, where and when in modernity has such a system existed?
Well, you are going to have to invent much of it! Life is nothing without challenges.
The salafist zerg is a good start for sure. They beat the USA in a war. Hamas is a good example too, they are very good at holding on to their mission and their structure despite constant loss. On the other side of the fence, you could look at the kibbutzim, and the Boer kommando system. The Boers are especially good as they were habitual Republic-founders so that's a good thing to copy.
You could look at the Vietnamese sapper communities planted along the Chinese border.
I would look at the Icelandic Free State and Norse culture in general, as they had strong senses of the individual and of life according to legal codes.
This community here is a good start, as are many server / forum communities. The open source community and hacker culture in general is a good start too.
You could look at Plain Folk and similar deliberately agrarian societies. Or monastic communities of faith.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 14:16:17 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
I think you definitely want pervasive militancy and violence, because it lets you escape the need for the whole bureaucracy of structured force to serve the state's ends. If it seems poorly suited for policy adventures, well, America's standing army hasn't exactly done it any great services since WW2, or really ever.
You better learn to learn, though. You will see 900 shortcomings in these suggestions and be like "this sucks, my morally, economically and militarily bankrupt culture is way better, 'cause my biases tell me so" and that will be the last of your chances to escape your context.
New social forms will be shocking, raw, incomplete, require adaptation. That is why they will have potential. What we have now, smoothly goes around and around on its track. Right down the toilet. It's a very polished motion. Reinvention is what's needed, and not a little. Crybaby society and its pack of elected looters, err, leaders are very able failures. Virtually anything involving them as theyare today will fail quite swiftly.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 14:16:41 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
I think it's time to research the potential of urban paintball facilities....
NateTG Thu Mar 26 14:16:43 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Wait until Sears and Sports Chalet release their square footage. And K-Mart, don't forget K-Mart.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 14:17:38 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Time once again for one of my tinfoil predictions. We will see in '09, '10 at the latest instances of CRE going back to productive farmland.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 14:19:51 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I think it's time to research the potential of urban paintball facilities...." Or roller hockey rinks. Ooo, roller-paint-ball!
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 14:20:38 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Rob Dawg.. sears and kmart are the same thing.. still holdling on for now.. although as I said last night.., my wife has heard some bankruptcy rumours.
Of course sears might sell kmart to walmart or someone else to save their ass
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:22:36 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The former chief regulator for the $2.69 trillion municipal bond market for the first time acknowledged that the governing board failed to save taxpayers in Detroit, Jefferson County, Alabama, and local California governments from suffering more than $1 billion of losses because of opaque financial instruments that backfired.
Christopher “Kit” Taylor, the executive director of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board from 1978 to 2007, said his board wouldn’t allow the group to set rules on swaps and derivatives. Many of these deals went awry last year as credit markets seized up, saddling taxpayers with unexpected bills just as the slowing economy reduced tax revenue.
“The big firms didn’t want us touching derivatives,” said Taylor, 62 and now a consultant on financial markets and regulatory policy, in a telephone interview from his home in Alexandria, Virginia. “They said, ‘Don’t talk about it, Kit.’”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=alaFF2rs82lM&refer=news
Time to open a can of Whopass
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 14:22:58 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Ooo, roller-paint-ball! - blackhalo
It's about time you got the inside joke that's been rattling around here for the last few years. John-a-than! John-a-than! John-a-than!
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 14:24:32 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Kit Taylor sounds like a good canidate to choose between spilling the beans or going to jail.
or both
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:24:53 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
bobn,
Lax lending standards determine the extent and duration (thereby the ultimate $ value), but they are not the core of the bubble.
There are many countries I could use as examples, but I live in Vancouver, BC which provides a pretty good experimental result.
The closest domestic banks had to low lending standards was a 40yr amortization which lasted from 07-08 before being banned again by the Federal government. Mortgages here are generally amortized over 30 years, with 5 year terms, 20% down. True, loans from foreign banks did play a role this time (eg Aussies, Americans, etc). However lower lending standards were not a feature that played a role in 3 other booms/busts since the late 1980s.
What causes the boom more than anything else is the step-shift in one of the factors I mentioned. Like the baby boomers in the 1980s entering the market increasing the pool of untapped credit (your mention of subprime would fall in to that category, but I consider it a relatively secondary or minor consideration). Or the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates from 6%+ to 1%. Like cutting overhead by using securitization and CDOS to minimize the amount of new money needed to keep the bubble growing.
The real problem is that this latest stage of the credit bubble made it into housing markets globally, and that it boosted incomes -- not just asset prices. So the ground is moving out from underneath people's feet while they are trying to hang on to the housing ladder.
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 14:27:51 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
The internet, macro economy and demographics will ensure that commercial RE will never be the same.
There are some strip malls that could be rezoned as new schools, hospitals, medical clinics so all is not completely lost.
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 14:28:54 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
citiprank says; Rob Dawg.. sears and kmart are the same thing.. still holdling on for now..
Understood but you understand there's a reason K-Mart remained a separate brand. I just didn't want anyone to forget what could happen.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 14:29:41 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
<h1>Recycling the Suburbs</h1>
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1884779_1884782_1884756,00.html
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 14:30:51 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Peak mall.
debtinator Thu Mar 26 14:32:14 2009 CDT #
wally says:
I just bought a cup of coffee this morning at a new strip mall on the way to a jobsite. A coffee place, a mini fitness center, a Lutheran Ministry (whatever that is), and H&R Block and about 10 empties. The mall has been open for about 7 months and that's the roll call.
wally Thu Mar 26 14:32:34 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Google cutting jobs. The end is nigh
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 14:32:35 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Global mall death. All we need is zombies.
scone Thu Mar 26 14:33:03 2009 CDT #
steelhead says:
There is no question that Sears is in trouble when Lands End reduces a long standing price on a men's blazer from $175 to $99.
steelhead Thu Mar 26 14:33:47 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Bank Stocks May Profit From Stress Test
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29895878
HERE COME THE WRITE UPS!
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 14:34:33 2009 CDT #
FFDIC says:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/25/news/fdic.hands.full.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009032605
<h1 class="storyheadline">Taxing times for the FDIC</h1>
<h2 class="storysubhead">The toxic-asset plan hands new duties to an agency that, thanks to soaring bank failures, already has its hands full.</h2>
FFDIC Thu Mar 26 14:36:31 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
sears actually could survive if they cut back to more of their core competency.. appliances and tools.. sears is still great for both
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:37:05 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
citiprank
Sears is a vehicle for Eddie Lampert's hedge fund (like how Berkshire's insurance biz is a vehicle for Buffet's investments)
It serves as a body that has large amounts of free cash on hand to exploit
It's very different from its competitors
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 14:43:05 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
sears actually could survive if they cut back to more of their core competency.. appliances and tools.. sears is still great for both
Sears is the last place that sells a nice selection of quality, American made hand tools. I will really be sad if they go away
Parent Post
alambka Thu Mar 26 14:53:24 2009 CDT #
ScroogeMcDuck says:
house near usc for 30k
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5909-South-Halldale-Avenue_Los-Angeles_CA_90047_1105367725
hurry and get to the ocean area!
ScroogeMcDuck Thu Mar 26 14:37:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
OT -- did you guys know that 'trading, just like business, is war'?
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=5628
Wow. Kellen Winslow moment for Mr. Evil.
Yeah, losing lots or all of your money because of voluntary, conscious actions by yourself is tough. But, you can recover; just ask Jesse Livermore's ghost.
Losing limb or life for country; well, that's a little bit different.
Dumbshit.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Thu Mar 26 14:39:01 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
bobn,
Lax lending standards determine the extent and duration (thereby the ultimate $ value), but they are not the core of the bubble.
Well, that's an interesting way to say it. But extent and duration are pretty important attributes, no? I'm looking at this and it makes all previous bubbles look like mole-hills.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Thu Mar 26 14:40:22 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
bobn,
I won't disagree that subprime/alt-a are very important features. Furthermore the fact recklessness was up front and dirty justifies more outrage over that class of mortgages. I just wanted to make the point that they weren't the cause of the bubble, perhaps more accurately they were caused by the bubble.
Their presence certainly did have a significant impact on increasing total losses by any metric (excess housing, misallocated capital, disruptive economic demand, direct losses in investments, etc...)
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 14:48:04 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
OMG.. it's amazing to me how much brain power is wasted on this bogus financial system...
And to think.. we could have people doing medical, energy or other scientific research instead.. heck.. or even producing REAL products like Henry Ford or Bill Gates!
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:40:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"appliances and tools.." I would think that Auto with the desire to keep the old jalopy going for one more year would be a big winner too.
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 14:41:07 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Bill Gates!" Uh, a monopoly that repackages the work of Xerox and Apple in a different color box, does not a real product make. MS has more in common with AIG as far as I am concerned.
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 14:43:36 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
good point blackhalo.. sears has a pretty decent auto and tire dept... not bad for things like lawn furniture either.
Notice that most of these things aren't things people buy online...
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:43:50 2009 CDT #
Believer Jeff says:
Kellen Winslow moment?
Believer Jeff Thu Mar 26 14:44:24 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Ok blackhalo.. bill gates was a bad example .. :)
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:44:25 2009 CDT #
MS says:
considering, for a moment, what could have been done to society with just a little bit of that bailout money makes my head hurt.
the market continues it's celebration of failure while society continues down it's path of destruction....at least the middle class.
Looking like they are going to close this sucker (Happy Dow #) above 8k for that all important qtrly print. *uckers....have they not done enugh damage?
Apparently not....
Ciao
MS
MS Thu Mar 26 14:45:19 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
@EHP
Do you have any good articles about sears as a hedge fund? My wife would love to see it and pass it around up there at Sears HQ
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:45:29 2009 CDT #
Teddy says:
Do they really think they can hide the toxic sausage when the Madoff trial starts and the high powered lawyers for the plaintiffs indict all of Madoff's family? Will the new SEC chairman Mary Shapiro testify? She worked under Chris Cox and hired Madoff's son. Could he be that dumb to not know what dad was doing? And what about Greenspan's wife Andrea Mitchell who said recently that this mess wasn't Alan's fault, but rather the SEC's? This will open up the biggest can of worms in the second largest Ponzi scheme the planet has witnessed to date. And probably lead to enough transparency to open the can of worms on the biggest Ponzi scheme in history, that run by wall street and the fed. Popcorn? Peanuts? And what about the trial of former illinois gov Rod Blagojevich? He is cuckoo, yup, cuckoo like a fox. And when the complete tapes are played, this will probably open up another huge can of worms that might catch some really big Chicago fish.
Teddy Thu Mar 26 14:45:46 2009 CDT #
wally says:
"she's pretty on top of things"
Hmmmm....
wally Thu Mar 26 14:46:33 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Teddy..you are a bit off on blago... he's really just an idiot... like seriously.. he's really stupid
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:48:17 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Sears downfall will be Sears Financial if they have been repackaging their store cc debt into financial products. Back in my day when I worked retail, that was their "big moneymaker."
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 14:48:29 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Winslow, a football player, stated that he was a 'soldier':
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X60mrYO1UU
His All-Pro Dad slapped him around for the inapt analogy.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Thu Mar 26 14:48:58 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Winslow, a football player, stated that he was a 'soldier'"
And then you have the exact opposite.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Tillman
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 15:23:07 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
@ MS
Good points you make.
I would start with helping folks with student loans who graduated (no help for people who didn't finish).
And the second group I would bailout are folks with heavy medical-healthcare debt.
Much more deserving than bank bondholders, doncha think?
The Daily Bail Thu Mar 26 14:49:41 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
@blackhalo... they have been taking a bath on me.. since my wife started there I bought all new appliaances and tools and deck furniture.. all at 20% off (employee discount on sears days)... and all at 0% interest.. (which i of course already have paid off)
citiprank Thu Mar 26 14:49:57 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
@ Wally
I didn't mean for it to sound that way, but in fact she is quite beautiful on top of certain things.
Sorry, back to the markets.
The Daily Bail Thu Mar 26 14:51:08 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
And the markets were up huge again, and our leader Obama thought in honest silence, a man of humble action. At his side was Geithner, the scholarly genius.
"alas," said Geithner, "our work has saved the world."
And they were relieved at a job well done.
turnthatfrownupsidedown Thu Mar 26 14:54:09 2009 CDT #
MS says:
well I can't disagree with the sentiment to help out student's and their debt load however I would automatically eliminate recipients who attended "top-tier" schools....there are much more deserving people who attended school period then those who graduated at "legacy" schools"....
If that eliminates some who are deserving then so be it. I'd rather make sure all who rec'd some help had no connections to this sack full 'o' crap and, more importantly, to those that created it.
Ciao
MS
MS Thu Mar 26 14:56:01 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
@MS
As you can imagine, I don't want bailouts for anyone or any companies.
But operating within the spirit of your hypothetical, I was offering those 2 groups.
As for restricting money to certain sub-groups within student loan debtors, if it can be done, then I agree with your point.
More succinctly, I would bailout those for whom the payment is arduous.
Parent Post
The Daily Bail Thu Mar 26 15:01:54 2009 CDT #
Believer Jeff says:
My son - now 15 was named after the original Winslow. He has turned out much better than junior so far.
Believer Jeff Thu Mar 26 14:56:46 2009 CDT #
Teddy says:
Anybody else getting mad that TARP money.....err, taxpayer money is being used to pay mega salaries to pro athletes when people are losing their jobs and homes? And btw, i have always been a huge sports fans........but now from a distance.
Teddy Thu Mar 26 14:58:05 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
citiprank,
It's not a secret. His group is called ESL Investments Inc, he's the Chairman of the Board for Sears Holdings. He was behind the Kmart merger which he got in bankruptcy court
Try google or even wikipedia
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rls=en-us&q=sears+lampert+esl+%22hedge+fund%22+&btnG=Search
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 14:58:43 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Ruh roh raggy, AIG in Paris has a BIG potential problem that could trigger 234 billion in derivatives
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123802506167942421.html
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 14:59:35 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Builders build, that is what they do. They build even when there is no demand for what they build, because they no nothing but to build.
Look at housing starts, who in the world would add supply to this market? But yet they do. They are like sharks, either they keep swimming or they die.
ghostfacedinvestah Thu Mar 26 14:59:39 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Keep up the good work, Jeff. Nothing more important than raising good kids.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Thu Mar 26 14:59:54 2009 CDT #
Ministry of Truth says:
Soros Predicts U.S. Commercial Real Estate Values Will Fall 30%
March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros said U.S. commercial real estate will probably drop at least 30 percent in value, causing further strains on banks.
“Commercial real estate has not yet fallen in value,” Soros, 78, speaking at a forum in Washington, said. “It is inevitable, it is written, everybody knows it, there are already some transactions which reflect and anticipate it, so we know, they will drop at least 30 percent.”
Soros said the risk of further declines in property prices is reason for the administration of President Barack Obama to move quickly to recapitalize banks. Soros said Obama acted too slowly on a banking overhaul and should have moved immediately upon taking office.
“At that moment of enthusiasm, fresh out of the gate, he would have gotten that money, and then we could have recapitalized the banks the right way, which would be to draw a line over the existing past accumulated bad assets and create new banks on top of these old banks,” Soros said.
Soros also said that the U.S. may face a new round of inflation should the flow of credit recover because of the large increase in the money supply stemming from the Federal Reserve’s purchases of Treasury securities.
“In order to make up for the collapse of credit, we are effectively creating money,” Soros said. That creates “an incredibly swollen monetary base, which, if it were leveraged, you would have an explosion of inflation.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2pBt4Vo5uHk
Ministry of Truth Thu Mar 26 15:02:43 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
wow, 666 to 832 (25%+) on the SPX in 13 or so trading days, man i hope you net short peeps on this board are not bleeding out right now. prob fast, furious and prone to failure rally but the sting of the rise hurts bad. p.s. i'm not a bulltard. i'm out of the mkt, just marveling at the insane volatility and how people could think it's a sign of a healthy mkt to have 3-5% swings on a regular basis.
the man from nantucket Thu Mar 26 15:03:02 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"I would look at the Icelandic Free State and Norse culture in general, as they had strong senses of the individual and of life according to legal codes. "
But as a vendetta society in which people had to enforce judgments privately, usually by putting together warring factions, they degenerated into anarchy. Iceland lost its independence.
Pavel Thu Mar 26 15:03:10 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
And yet people are living in Shanty Towns. We're living in a truly insane society.
Morocco Bama Thu Mar 26 15:03:51 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Do you have any good articles about sears as a hedge fund?"
I went looking, I remember this. Damn, I am old.
http://www.nytimes.com/1983/08/27/business/sears-financial.html
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 15:04:52 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Does this guy know what he is talking about?
March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros said U.S. commercial real estate will probably drop at least 30 percent in value, causing further strains on banks.
nova Thu Mar 26 15:08:53 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Further support for CR's claim that CRE was not as overbuilt as RRE.
Jas
Jas Thu Mar 26 15:12:46 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Of course sears might sell kmart to walmart or someone else to save their ass
Just prolonging the inevitable
Markar Thu Mar 26 15:14:16 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel
It depends on the context people are placed into. Fragile fortunes in Greenland were its undoing. Iceland kept going just fine because of a marginally better environment.
Also see the Tikopians for another society that was very much bottom up, lasting hundreds of years, independently developed some of the world's most advanced agricultural practices including some of which we haven't figured out how they work
Everything depends on the context; attempting to change people is futile
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 15:14:42 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Nantucket, I have a big short bet, and amped it up as the market was falling.
I've had to cover portions to move up my margin call point from 800 to 825 to 850.
Yes, this hurts! But it is recoverable, and will be recovered soon.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Thu Mar 26 15:16:20 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Jas,
Do you post while sitting in pleather covered chair that you found at a yard sale? Do you cackle, scratch your winkie through your pee stained shorts, and mumble to yourself? You shallow little chest swelling with pride at your perceived genius in the virtual world, while in real life people avoid you like you have leprosy?
nova Thu Mar 26 15:17:16 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
So bulldozing meadows is our culture's high water mark? Except for maybe the "Americans are dopes" blog post, of course.
debtinator Thu Mar 26 15:21:05 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Does this guy know what he is talking about?
Considering the fact he's "having a very good crisis" I would say the answer is yes
Markar Thu Mar 26 15:21:38 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
p.s. i'm not a bulltard. i'm out of the mkt, just marveling at the insane volatility and how people could think it's a sign of a healthy mkt to have 3-5% swings on a regular basis.
It's slot machine syndrome. People get excited when there's noise and the machine pays out. Maybe we'll see some epilepsy warnings for days when Elmo and Kermit have a threesome with Tigger.
Something that probably isn't said enough is that the trading markets are all zero-sum. The only real way to make money is to find suckers and, these days, the gubernmint is the sucker of last resort.
NateTG Thu Mar 26 15:22:29 2009 CDT #
scone says:
ghostfacedinvestah says: “Builders build, that is what they do. They build even when there is no demand for what they build, because they no nothing but to build.
Look at housing starts, who in the world would add supply to this market? But yet they do. They are like sharks, either they keep swimming or they die
It's not that irrational. Builders and developers have to start projects years, maybe even a decade, before they can be sold. It takes huge amounts of time to find land, go through the planning process, line up financing, etc. By the time they break ground, they can't easily back out because of all the money they have already spent, and all the partnerships. The 'calculated risk' is to go forward and perhaps go through bankruptcy rather than get sued for non-performance by the other players (just an example). Better a chance of something versus a certainty of nothing. Extremely difficult business.
scone Thu Mar 26 15:25:13 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
in japan they farm the land and live in the mountains.. not sure why we live on and build on the good farmland here
citiprank Thu Mar 26 15:25:58 2009 CDT #
Bank Lawyer says:
The amount of CRE in the countries' small and regional banks is staggering. And its all a ticking time bomb. My business is booming. Unfortuntely for my clients the boom is in collecting shitty commercial real estate loans, strip centers, unfinished housing developments, spec houses, etc.. I've lost track of the number of large commercial foreclosures I have done in the past year and the pace is only picking up. Don't believe for a second this economy is improving.
Bank Lawyer Thu Mar 26 15:26:08 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Nutting: Unemployment still rising
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/nutting-unemployment-still-rising.html ( 7 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Thu Mar 26 15:26:09 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
comrade-dope jg: G_d bless ya, i don't thave the personality to make those type of calls, i've never been great at the short term or broad market trading thing, prefer to look 2-3 yrs out and focus on individual stocks. since i'm all cash it hurts to watch the rise, but i'm not confident enough it's not all given back (and then some) within the next several months. good luck on the position.
the man from nantucket Thu Mar 26 15:26:24 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
Geeze, Nova - That even made ME wince. For a second I thought you were describing ME! ;)
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 15:30:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Yeah, did I leave my web cam on?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 15:34:12 2009 CDT #
gr8f8 says:
And yet SRS is going down. (Don't even try to say it is the slow decay, I understand this ETF). Close to 52 week low.
gr8f8 Thu Mar 26 15:32:29 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Icelandic Free State and Norse culture -Well, I do have green eyes and the headgear might be fun-boating once in awhile might be nice. The only thing is-I don't like the cold ;)
"But as a vendetta society in which people had to enforce judgments privately, usually by putting together warring factions, they degenerated into anarchy. Iceland lost its independence."
There may be other cases of that......................
Magical Thinking Thu Mar 26 15:32:54 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Yep, Blackhalo, Pat Tilman was quite the fellow, absolutely. Thanks for the reminder.
Nantucket, four years I formed the hypothesis that we were going into a deep dark depression, and bet that way.
So far, it sure does look like the early steps into a deep, dark depression.
Just food for thought!
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Thu Mar 26 15:36:11 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
test
dr munch Thu Mar 26 16:39:25 2009 CDT #
That Barton Fink Feeling says:
A not-so-modest proposal.
Convert the empty shopping malls to factories. Teach credit card babies how to run sewing machines, lathes, drill presses.
(In many cases, a new sign for these insta-factories won't be necessary. Just paint the word "Making" above "Linens 'N Things.")
No, it isn't flipping houses, playing quants, or pressing a button to add the HMO's cut to the medical bill.
It's rather more, well, useful.
That Barton Fink Feeling Thu Mar 26 17:45:36 2009 CDT #
END
