First!
That's Ballgame, Goat Herder . I am usually calm and reserve but lately Rrrrr! must be the Market 
Please except my sincere apology.
First!
Re-Hire Spitzer....He was great for RevPar
Re-Hire Spitzer....He was great for RevPar
Should be awesome for REITs.
Also, 11.76 would be 100% up from the lows for XLF if we can get there.
Seems to me that this data is pretty fresh (from April 4th), and doesn't indicate an uptick at all in travel.
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"no one is pricing in low, mid teens unemployment in any of their assumptions." - Meredith Whitney
I wonder if any chains will consider tearing down properties rather than rehab them in an effort to reconcile with demand. I would guess Vegas would be the most likely place for that to happen first.
Spunkmeyer
Deutschebank is going to mothball as much as possible of Century City in Las Vegas. Finishing one condo tower, and putting the rest of the billion dollar project into ghost-town status
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I wonder if any chains will consider tearing down properties rather than rehab them in an effort to reconcile with demand.
Bond covenants.
Shill,
I'm on your side. I AM a doomer, and I agree we're spot on (though I don't like that term for us, necessary. Something like "independent-thinking realists who actually display a modicum of intelligence and realize there's no way out of this hellhole" might be a better term)
I wasn't making light of doomers. I was saying I could see the govt planting "fake doomers" to look ludicrous and discredit the correct points being made by the real doomers.
This belongs a couple of threads back, but...
My son rents an apartment in a home for which no loan payments have been made for 9 months. The owner has moved out (having suffered medical problems) and my son pays the utilities.
No NOD has yet been filed, 9 months since last payment.
Loan is serviced by that mega profit machine Wells-Fargo Bank (I don't know if they own the loan or not).
May be a partial explanation for why things have been going so well for them; just ignore anything that might be bad news.
IF THIS DOESN'T QUASH KERMIT, I DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Target Corp. said Thursday same-store sales declined 6.3 percent in March, slightly better than Wall Street expectations, partly because of improvement in the discount retailer's business segments.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a larger 7.4 percent decline in same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least one year.
Total sales for the five weeks ended April 4 fell 2.3 percent to $5.54 billion from $5.68 billion last year.
The company says same-store sales fell 5.3 percent year-to-date, while total sales have declined 1.3 percent so far this year.
Target Chief Executive Gregg Steinhafel said in a statement Thursday that March sales were "modestly better" than planned.
Steinhafel said shoppers are still cautious, but that operating results are improving in its business segments.
"We expect our April reported comparable-store sales results to be essentially flat to last year," Steinhafel said.
Target currently operates 1,699 Target stores in 49 states.
Shares rose $2.15, or 5.7 percent, to $39.75 in afternoon trading.
I equate doom with Mad Max scenario, or the lesser doom of a government resignation after violent protests
I equate gloom with oh look, Japan lost 2 decades economically. The great depression happened, we'll make it through the lean times together.
I think of myself as more of a gloomer.
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That's Ballgame, Goat Herder . I am usually calm and reserve but lately Rrrrr! must be the Market
Please except my sincere apology.
MALVERN, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 09, 2009-- By a 2-to-1 margin, middle-level managers with hiring responsibilities have turned a thumbs-down to the Obama administration's stimulus package recently passed by the Democratic-controlled Congress.
A total of 2,775 managers from a broad cross-section of industries and companies participated in the survey conducted on HRMorning.com, the daily updated information Web site sponsored by Progressive Business Publications. (The site is visited daily by tens of thousands of managers.)
The poll found that 32% believe the stimulus measures will hurt their industries, while just 16% said it will be helpful and beneficial for job creation.
Of the remainder, 28% said it will have no effect and 25% said they weren't sure.
In a separate survey conducted at the time the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) was introduced in Congress, the verdict of HR Managers on the administration's personnel policies was even more negative. If enacted, EFCA would scrap the secret-ballot vote for unionization efforts.
Of the 1,286 HR practitioners responding, 70% said the administration's personnel policies would make their jobs more difficult, while only 9% said their jobs would become easier as a result. Another 21% felt the measure, if passed, would have no effect on their jobs.
Business managers casting their votes also took the opportunity to post comments on Progressive Business Publication's HRMorning.com site, often in sarcastic tones questioning the new government measures.
Much of the ire was directed at a provision that would require companies to front 65% of COBRA costs for laid-off employees (which may be recoverable through a credit on payroll taxes).
One HR practitioner called the legislation "horrific," while another said the recovery act would be better described as the "Re-bury" act.
picosec
I speculated about WFC delaying foreclosure in the WFC thread @ http://www.hoocoodanode.org/node/6554#comment-699504
Thanks for anecdotal confirmation. It makes no sense for them to have fewer mortgage losses than their competitors by such a large margin
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Shill, you have nothing to apologize for. I should have made the point of view that I'm coming from clearer in the original post. Glad we cleared that up!
"It makes no sense for them to have fewer mortgage losses than their competitors by such a large margin "
Wells steered clear of sub-prime. Probably the ARMs too.
wow, by the looks of that rally i bet the whole country will just smile and shop all weekend then everything will be A-OK.
all the myflakes will get jobs.
we'll all just take on debt forever. don't deny the truth.
this will last
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I like that and hellhole, they just keep digging.
The race to the bottom continues
jo6pac
OT: In one of this day's developments, WFC is up 24% and BAC is up 27%! JPM just 11%, MS only 7%. C up 10%.
Visit Nuremberg someday. It was the hub of the ancient trade routes of Europe. All major trade centers were spokes from its center. Venice to the south, Amsterdam to the north, Spain to the west. All the goods of the east (spices, silk, sugar, textiles, etc) eventually came through there. Like a medieval, post-dark age commodity exchange and distribution hub. Most nascent continental fortunes had some commerce there. The development of money-lending and financial innovation made it vital to trade.
It also became infamous for its instituting of racial laws. Laws which targeted a particular race, or ethnic background, or religious bent, or economic collectivism, or even maybe human storehouses of a perverse economic theory whereby one gained materially by unequal exchange, sleight of hand/mind, innovation, fraud, duplicity, or counterfeit. It may have been an overreaction to perceived injustice. It may have been an attempt to root out and destroy root and stock a pernicious philosophy which ever produces transient general wealth as well as punishing and enduring penury upon nations.
It also was execution ground for war criminals enacting a variant of the same form of plunder. Critical waterways and highways.
Critical to understanding capitalism and usury.
"Larry Summers protest disruption"
Kooks, but peaceable. Nice to give TPTB a hint of how close they are to pitchforks.
EHP, shill, I notice duplicate posts from you on the previous thread. Did you enter them multiple times?
Also, how is the site performing for people?
Kooks, but peaceable.
Yes, they should just be complaining over lattes like 'normal' people.
When posting it was telling me I lost my connection and then it just hung there and produced a double post.
When posting it was telling me I lost my connection and then it just hung there and produced a double post.
Actually is was error requesting data.
Wow, the heckler demonstration was a bit much.
I thought it was just one woman shouting out.
That was a planned demonstration.
kcoop, dupe posts seem to be from slow loading pages.... halo had a 'you already said that' feature
I'm surprised they didn't intervene earlier in the protest.
And it does appear to me he was a bit affected by the sentiment.
kcoop,
I didn't submit twice, didn't even realize there was a duplicate post. My connection to the server seems, slowish/problematic. Have seen "Error requesting/sending data" pop up in the upper right a couple times. Requesting the case of typing w/ preview, and sending when I actually hit 'Save'. If I leave it alone, the post automatically retries and successfully submits. Using Safari 4 Mac
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myspace. friendster, facebook, freindface, myflakes, facespace, myface, mywaste, friendspace, flakespace, spacester
were are all these people going to get jobs.
could these bubble profiles turn into tombstones a relic of where they were before they joined the bicycle caravan of the tree people
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"Yes, they should just be complaining over lattes like 'normal' people. "
Hey, they give me hope. I suspect they are part of the green/anti-globalization crowd, where they probably do plan their actions over lattes. I would be much more pleased by something more grass roots, rather than career protesters.
Vets forming a tent city on the mall. That, would be a protest I would consider non-kooky.
Want to save some moolah?
Hit up any and all service providers (cable, cellular, etc) and tell them you are thinking of dropping them, and then listen in, as they cut you a deal.
Directv gave me 40% off, just like that.
"I would be much more pleased by something more grass roots"
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I'd like to see something quicker and less subtle, like a starter pistol.
Wells steered clear of sub-prime. Probably the ARMs too.
Wells has a ton of Option ARM exposure, through Wachovia. It's why Wachovia was on the block in the first place.
--- hoocoodanode.org ping statistics ---
5 packets transmitted, 5 packets received, 0% packet loss
round-trip min/avg/max/stddev = 86.652/89.753/96.068/3.611 ms
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That must explain why HST's stock is up 66% from its recent low. They saw this coming, was all priced in.
I'd admire their spunk
For what its worth dept:
My big box local sports retailer has always had an excellent selection of Coleman 3-5-6-7-8 person tents, and I dropped in last week to see what condition their inventory selection was in, and there wasn't much left. I talked to the manager and he said they were selling them to the newly homeless, ex-middle class.
Who sez the "housing market" is dead?
@EHP
I'm not familiar with WFC's business model regarding loans, but is it possible that if they make money on late fees, etc on loans that they service for others, then it's to their financial advantage to let those loans fester?
"Why yes I did! Seven years as an 11B infantryman."
When and where did you serve? Vietnam? What unit? If you did go to "The Nam", then let me thank you for your service. However, it doesn't change the fact that the bulk of the military is right leaning, or at least it was until we got bogged down in 7 years of war.
I admire those who disrupted Larry Summers talk, but couldn't they have come up with much more and much better things to say?
"I'd like to see something quicker and less subtle, like a starter pistol."
A string of fireworks, even better.
But I'd feel sorry for the shmoe who tried it. TPTB would come down hard with felony wepons and explosives charges and I doubt they would get off without some time.
The military leans very hard to the right as far as cannon fodder is concerned, but what about the higher-ups?
Not really on topic, but this quote is epic:
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/04/obama-to-bankers-my-admini...
New details out on Obama to bank CEOs. Politico reports this quote: ""My administration," the president added, "is the only thing between you and the pitchforks." "
Arbeit Mach Frei --
I called Comcast - no such discount. So I went to the store, returned my DVR, and cut my service to the most basic available.
Bill went from $90 to $17. I HATE Comcast. I'm going to look into Antennae and converter boxes to save the $17 too.
I hope more people do the same.
Move along people, nothing to see in this thread:
I wonder how embarrassed Suzanne Sommers gets, when people ask if she's related to Larry Summers?
Bloomberg's elitist jerks on disruption ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdT23lWQHD0
"How Did the PINK LADIES get in AGAIN?"
Vets forming a tent city on the mall. That, would be a protest I would consider non-kooky.
We'll have a moment soon that will start something. It will be unexpected, sopntaneous, and will leave a lasting impression - kind of like this. You don't oppress people forever before they stand up to you at some point and shout "Enough!".
You'll know it when you see it
Bloomberg's elitist jerks on disruption ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdT23lWQHD0
"How Did the PINK LADIES get in AGAIN?"
That's why I'm convinced that protest was allowed to happen. code Pink is a fringe group in the eyes of the majority. If you can ridicule them, you don't need to answer them.
I went to the store, returned my DVR, and cut my service to the most basic available.
Take the filter off and you'll get the full regular cable lineup.
According to MC Cabrera, GM's bondholders are about to get a substantial shaft: a new proposed offer to them would include:
- $0 new cash
- $0 new debt
- 10-20% of the company stock.
This is a dramatic deterioration from the old proposed offer (which bondholders were not happy with in the first place):
- 8 cents cash
- 16.5 cents new debt
- 90% of GM stock
The revised terms are based on the auto task force's determination that due to deteriorating economic conditions, the initial offer to bondholders had been far too generous. Bondholders are guaranteed to balk at this offer, with the government likely to end up getting a super secured position via a DIP, thus cramming down the bonds even more in bankruptcy... Of course, the tables would turn if the administration truly has an ulterior motive of equitable subordination of its claim as ZH speculated.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/gm-bondholders-to-receive-even-wor...
"The military leans very hard to the right as far as cannon fodder is concerned, but what about the higher-ups? "
Similar-
Bonus Army 1932: G.I. Joe Vets want compensation paid to them, despite payments coming due years down the road
Bonus Army 2009: Regular Joes want compensation paid to them, despite social security payments coming due years down the road.
this close might shoot short balls
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Basel2
How can I take the "filter" off?
2 days after the switch I lost most of my channels, which I thought I'd keep. Turns out channel lineups are based on different regions. NJ gets 60 channels for $16. I get 16 for $17.
-M (formerly Anonymous2)
Is our armed forces the only place left in the government with far too many fundamental christians?
that recent trend is skyrocketing baby! we're back!!
what?
surging UE, alt-a resets coming, GM BK coming, low consumer spend for years to come?
really,...all that?
maybe we're not back
move along, go read the next comment
Say,
What happens to our army vets in Afghanistan & Iraq, when they come back home to no jobs?
The USA might bear scant resemblance to how they remembered it being.
That was a planned demonstration.
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Can't we just have a chain link fenced off area in the back corner.
"OK, herd in the protesters. Its my pleasure to introduce our speaker..."
My deflation expectations are well anchored, are yours?
You might call the sad clowns in charge in our financial destiny:
"The Boys Of Summers"
And I was going to be the clever one to make an Eliot Spitzer comment.
So, all this vacancy means one can expect to haggle for deep discounts while travelling...at least one ray of sunshine. I plan to 'see my own back yard' this summer!
I'll be honest -- today is pretty unpleasant!
In-Depth Look - Wells Fargo's Traditional Strength - Bloomberg
Cinco;
Most of the military might lean to the right, but most right leaning people complete reject the idea of military service.
Take a look at what the military has had to do the past few years:
Raise the maximum enlistment age from 35 to 42
Thousands of stop losses
$40000 enlistment bonuses
Accepting more recruits that are dropouts
Accepting more recruits with shady criminal records
Hiring mercinaries to fill in
Mercinaries, loyal to the all mighty dollar, not soldiers serving their country wearing American uniforms with American flags on their shoulders.
My son in-law served two tours in Iraq. The army made him a recruiter a few years ago - let me tell you, Americas heros aren't showing up in great numbers.
I know a bunch of wingnuts that think slapping a support the troops bumper sticker on their car makes them brave,patriotic, loyal soldiers. They're not. They're nothing but wingnuts. GW and the crowd I mentioned earlier, as well as most conservatives, would rather see America lose a war than serve their country.
They wanted to be the worlds policemen. They got the world they wanted now let them go out there and do the job.
I do realize that some people out there do live their principals and my hat is off to them.
Gavshire:
yeah, IIRC, are you the chap that recently went very short? even tho data points lead me to believe the recent rally is prone to fail above the 20-25% mark, i don't have quite enuf conviction to get net short. hope the trade works for you.
Vets come home? The troops won't be coming home any time soon.
Not only are there no jobs for them but we have tons of low hanging fruit now trained in MOUT (Military Operations in Urban Terrain) the last thing we want is for this knowledge to be passed on to gangs, militias, whoever
Also a smart failing society keeps its troops far away from home otherwise like any banana republic we risk a Junta if things get bad enough
I am a gloomer too.
Let me say though I am not sure EHP's lesser doom is such a bad thing. If the government collapses peacefully and we hold new elections I think we'd benefit.
You think that the hotel business is bad now? I don't just follow the econ stats - I follow the internal news about hotels. Any traveler should.
I assume that Calculated Risk folks and their readers travel a bit. Check out your hotel in the USA for bed bugs before you go there. There is a web site for that now.
There is an epidemic of bed bugs in North America. So, this may seem off topic - until you visit the web site that keeps track of bed bug reports in the USA and now Vancouver, Canada. I certainly hope that you can see how this is both important as an economic factor and important to your blog readers!
This may also seem off topic but Namke Productivity - Building Better Planets (my site - I travel a lot) posted a blog about a new device (no dogs, extreme heat or chemicals) for flushing out and eliminating bed bugs - safely and cheaply. I am in no way affiliated with the company and I have no shares in the company.
I can't stress enough what bed bugs mean - they can hitch-hike on you to public places. If you think that hotel vacancies, office vacancies and mall vacancies are bad now - a bed bug epidemic out of control would mean that *nobody* would willing go into a public place or travel.
Anyway - if there was a better blog post on the web about bed bugs than my recent post then I would not even mention my site. So, moderator - even if you delete this post : please check out Namke Productivity blog post title 'Save Money : Bed bugs - check out your hotel and new device'. The economic implications of bed bugs (especially right now) are catastrophic.
The bed bug stats are now a leading indicator - for offices, malls and hotels. And I hope that this information will help your many readers.
They'll have to start renting by the hour.