We are all chinese now!
uh wait...
test
only url hackers can enter this thread?
Who's the ugly resource consuming capitalist pig now?
debtinator wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 3:07pm.
only url hackers can enter this thread?
Yup, kinda like an IQ test for octopi.
Is this when investors start fleeing the dollar?
China is going to be PISSED when they find out we used up the world's resources to establish our standard of living.
We sell into China and they are still buying....rays of sunshine are around if you look for them...or you can cling to your guns, gold and god...
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Crispy & Cole...suddenly I feel optomistic!
da-link is broke.
dah-link.
...and we stuck them with the tab.
c&c,
"We sell into China and they are still buying"
It looks like China is buying from China. Where are 'we' in the picture?
tia.
Ag products...sold through Hong Kong. So far so good...yeah, they might stiff us one day, but not yet.
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Crispy & Cole...suddenly I feel optomistic!
Those are commie,baby cars, not like the 400 horse power man car "engines of capitalism" SUVs we have. Did Fishcer-Price oursource their automotive division or something?
It isn't that hard to get here. Hoocoodanode has a main page with links to each comment thread, including this one.
And someone has registered Anonymous... sigh...
I'm imagining all the hot money pouring into asian stock markets in the next few years. You keep printing it, it will find a home. It's going to be a fantastic bubble. At thing of beauty to watch form and pop.
energyecon
From the last thread - my response to your Boeing/Airbus article
I work in the aviation/finance space and we've had to view since last fall that the funding gap for aircraft will force Airbus and Boeing to lower production rates. Credit has dried up for aircraft deliveries - we estimate of all the banks active in space, maybe 4 of the major ones are lending (of course the regional banks are stepping in, but only for their home markets of China and the Middle East at this point). LTV's are down in the 60%-70% for solid credits, and bad credit have no hope getting anything over 50% LTV (which is as good as nothing as all carriers are completely focused conserving cash and can't afford to put all that up in equity). Pricing has exploded - a flag carrier that would have gotten L+50 bps during the boom times is looking at 350-500 bps these days. The major leasing companies don't have the capital to extend beyond their commitments (ILFC and GECAS for instance), and those that do, are too busy buying back their own debt for cents on the dollar for 30+% IRRs. Some are still willing to lease but they often require quid pro quos such as the manufacturer deferring/canceling orders that the leasing cos placed but don't want to take because airlines are dropping capacity all over the place (not to mention the degradation in credit quality across the board).
c&c,
thanks.
Ag as in agriculture?
Woohoo, Internet access again! Don't know if it's been widely reported, but DSL access, much residential phone service, and a lot of cell phones (and the credit card system; and the ATMs) went down in parts of Santa Clara and Santa Cruz County (California) about 12 hours ago after somebody clipped just the right cables in a manhole in South San Jose.
I always had phone service here in Santa Cruz, but no Internet. And with the cash machines down, and the credit card system, I was more than glad to have a cash stash at home. If four cut cables can do that... maybe I should have a larger one.
there goes the planet.....
Cheers!
Bijan
The cut fiber optics was on purpose? The article I read was vague about the cause.
"The cut fiber optics was on purpose? The article I read was vague about the cause. "
Yes, they were cut on purpose. The police are treating it as a crime. The last radio report I heard said that wires were cut in two separate places, which is the first time I'd heard that.
So this was planned. Anarchists? Unions? Happy hackers? Anybody's guess.
GM is doing well in China.
"The cut fiber optics was on purpose? The article I read was vague about the cause. "
Yes, they were cut on purpose. The police are treating it as a crime. The last radio report I heard said that wires were cut in two separate places, which is the first time I'd heard that.
So this was planned. Anarchists? Unions? Happy hackers? Anybody's guess.
These sort of crimes & mysterious accidents always appear whenever the communications unions are on the brink of a strike with a major service provider. AT&T and their unions are ready to throw down, from what I understand. Anyone see any "red shirts" in the neighborhood?
Regarding the Chinese auto sales, anyone know what their emission standards are? Adding 1MM cars in a month? That has to give Al Gore fits...
I did see that Verizon guy walking around plaintively saying," Can you here me now?" He looked bummed.
renminbi...dont leave home without it
mt
I did read an article that China will be the leading producer of electric vehicles. Of course the majority of their electricity is coal powered. We'll call that even in the good news department.
alybaba,
Many thanks for that informed view - my WAG is these conditions will persist...
"GM is doing well in China. "
I guess GM-China may not want to help their American brethren.
OT. I was in the east bay today and dropped into a coffee shop I used to frequent,and spoke to the owner and his assistant for a few minutes.The owner told me he now owes countrywide $950k on his home in Kensington ( Good schools,the dealers sell organic crack) and has not made a payment in 15 months,the assistant who was in his 60's chimed in that he hadn't made a payment since may '08.Both got NOD's neither has recieved a NoTs.The owner used to have two coffee shops,one in Jack London square and a High end restaurant.Now? one coffeeshop,one retiree working for him under the table.in less than 2 years.oh and lots of those new condo's in oakland are now for lease.Some have nice views of the greyhound station...
Tom Stone
Thanks for that report from the field, Tom. I've had a little too much unfounded optimism today.
Excerpt from: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/14634/
At the end of 2006, a state decree ordered that the state would maintain "absolute" control over SOEs that were deemed critical to national security and economic livelihood: defense, electric power and grid, petroleum and petrochemical, telecommunications, coal, civil aviation, and shipping.
In addition to these seven "strategic" industries that were named in the decree, the state would maintain "a strong position" for enterprises in the "pillar" industries, which include equipment manufacturing, auto, information technology (IT), construction, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemical, and surveying and design.
To date there has been direct action by the state in recent months to support electric, petroleum, petrochemical, civil aviation, and shipping which I'm aware of. Huawei gets massive ongoing support in the telecommunications sector, ditto for any defense project and I would expect broad aid to coal mines at the local level.
Of the economic pillars there has been purchasing of scrap/inventory of metals, this aberration of car sales, and in a way support of the construction sector by the government come developer behaviour (Wen Jiabo made it a point of declaring support of real estate prices to the National Congress; many other local administrations took it upon themselves to acquire/renovate, if you build they will come; or even just the old SOE/Bank/Government golden triangle I have heard so much about)
China will dip into their reserves before long, the step-shift down in trade will make sure of that. Look at the drubbing Russia and South Korea got with their big reserves (albeit big decentralized foreign borrowing). The Renminbi has to rise, and until it does the Gods will remain angry. It's one of those Life will find a way things from Jurassic Park. I can't think of a way they can keep the Renminbi low enough to compete against Vietnam, Thailand locally or the US and EU globally with their existing strategy.
The only hope for the status quo is a surprising new huge demand source-that was a sarcastic joke. I don't think this is a bad thing for China. They have the savings, prices of good to raise the standard of living will be cheap, they can probably get a full collection of superpower international body letterheads thrown in. Of course it will upset the existing political power base unless they are given a way to profit more, which is impossible relative to the performance in the multi-decade global credit bubble we are now exiting.
Don't worry about a war any time soon. If anyone starts a war, it will be an autocratic government with a select base of political power. China may not be a democracy, or have even liberalized much politically since Deng Xiaoping, but the political power is distributed among somewhat heterogeneous interests. Also, it is a big country and there are few wars that would spur enough kickbacks, acquire new resources, and yet remain attractive to the majority of bearers of political power
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as most here are more than well aware retail is gonna get hurt bad
buy bye GI JOES
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Joe's Sports headed for liquidation
by Laura Gunderson, The Oregonian
Wednesday April 08, 2009, 8:30 PM
snip
Gordon Brothers Group, the liquidator that recently helped clear merchandise for Circuit City and several other bankrupt retailers, is expected to earn approval to buy G.I. Joe's Holding Corp. during a bankruptcy hearing today, several sources said Wednesday.
snip
Blanton, who responds to major company closures and layoffs within 48 hours, said he understood that about 190 corporate and distribution center employees would lose jobs as part of a liquidation.(and 31 stores)
Joe's filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in early March. In initial court filings, the retailer made it clear it aimed to quickly restructure or sell -- either to someone who'd continue operations or to a liquidator, which typically means the clearing of goods and a closure.
snip
May 1, 2008: Joe's opens its 31st -- and apparently final -- location in Nampa, Idaho, trumpeting expectations that the chain's annual sales would exceed $290 million.
March 4, 2009: G.I. Joe's Holding Corp. files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, listing debts ranging from $100 million to $500 million.
snip
Joe's couldn't secure any other partners or financing to restructure. Delaware-based attorneys who attended a hearing Tuesday and local creditors, including Columbia Sportswear, said the retailer only received bids from liquidators.
snip
Joe's bankruptcy filings list more than 1,000 creditors, with the top 30 owed $12.8 million. Baja Inc., Joe's largest unsecured creditor, is owed $1.2 million, according to court records.
snip
lauragunderson@news.oregonian.com
mt
I think I'll go long oil when it goes down $10 from its current point.
Crocuses in China, such as they are in secretive manipulated markets. While in the USA we get...
"So far this year, Boeing's order book shows more cancellations than orders for jets.
The Chicago-based company, which makes its commercial airliners in the Seattle region, said first-quarter profit would be cut by about 38 cents per share due to the lower prices and production cuts. Wall Street had been expecting profit of $1.19 per share for the first quarter, down from $1.61 per share a year earlier, according to Reuters Estimates"
Lower than the lowered estimates. Profits cut in half from last year. BULLISH SIGNS OF 2H RECOVERY!!
The sad reality is that china (and pretty much any asian country) will never amount to anything unless they change their attitudes.
Mercantilism is so ingrained in their ways that short of something that wipes of everyone above 40 (or maybe 30?) their culture will never change. Mercantilism can only allow you to catch up to the rest, never go past them.
Made the offer earlier, but probably a different crew on now.
If you want a copy of my April Strategy report, shoot me an e-mail at dhvd_2004@yahoo.com
Lucifer,
I think enough time has passed that we can write to each other in a civil manner. With that out of the way, would you elaborate on what you think a move away from mercantilism might be? As in what are the set of alternatives from your perspective, and the one(
you think most likely or most efficient
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Both are shameless deadbeats
Way OT, but I just noticed Hoops is online:
Did you see this from Elizabeth Wurtzel in the WSJ today? The gist of the piece is that elite corp. attorneys have exactly nothing to show for the last twelve years of work. I'm generally not a big fan of hers, but this op-ed piece probably has some merit...
Don't they have air quality issues?
My brother was just in China a few months back, and the sky was green the whole time.
China is merely the last great industrial country, and will soon drown in its own waste, like yeast in a petri dish using up all their nutrients, and replacing them with waste.
About the telecom cut.. the reason we should not abolish the death penalty is that it is required to deal with a**holes who use their social positions to blackmail others.
While I am not sure that a drug dealer deserves the death penalty, I cannot say the same for many unionized members of various utilities, members of the medical profession, bankers etc..
It may sound inhumane, but people who endanger or harm others through their blackmail have lost the basis for being treated as human beings... they are no better than mad dogs..
The real world is quite distinct from the ponzi-USG-juiced capitalism we get with the likes of WFC's sunny projections. CVX also hit with shaply lower earnings.
Now we'll begin to get the decoupled markets that Ben * Timmay have been conspiring to engineer where dislocations are gap down for real world and sunny days for the golden children.
First, the Chinese policy stimulus could turn out to be insufficient and further stimulus could be delayed. Second if a drugged recovery – via easy money, loose fiscal policy and easy credit – leads to further over-capacity (of which there is some evidence), it could result in rising non-performing loans, falling profits or rising losses.
Haha, well I have to give Roubini genuine credit for adopting this concept of a "drugged recovery".
Now the question is how much meaningful stimulus can governments impart (if any) without it becoming a drugged recovery. My guess is that this is related to their fiscal health and the efficiency and size of the government.
I think countries with their finances in disarray and/or bloated, inefficent governments only have "drugged recoveries" as an option.
Woohoo, Internet access again! Don't know if it's been widely reported, but DSL access, much residential phone service, and a lot of cell phones (and the credit card system; and the ATMs) went down in parts of Santa Clara and Santa Cruz County (California) about 12 hours ago after somebody clipped just the right cables in a manhole in South San Jose.
ALL of the important lines were accessible from a single manhole???
Back in the good old days, I had a wonderful professor in my computer security class. He was super important and frequently had to fly to Washington to brief even more important people on various things... He always lined up the most interesting people to fill in for him while he was gone. People with real-world experience in the military, DoE, private sector, other government agencies. He just had them come in and tell stories and most were pretty fascinating. This just popped into my head because I remember one of those stories involving a high-tech firm that had triple backups of all their communications lines, but nobody had bothered to check how they entered the building. Turns out they all came in via the same conduit and, as you could probably guess, one day there was some construction down the street and all the bosses were scratching their heads wondering how everything could fail at once.
I guess sometimes that crap you learn in college would be useful if anyone bothered to use it in real life.
is this so-called chinese recovery one big lie? how can this be? we are not buying their junk anymore, so is the chinese government stimulus working ? using money from their large over stocked trading accounts full of dollars to pay for this recovery? how long will this last?
The gist of the piece is that elite corp. attorneys have exactly nothing to show for the last twelve years of work.
This is exactly what I am seeing and anticipating, which is why I'm looking for a way out of elite corporate work post haste. I feel very strongly that the model of law I'm in right now is not only unsustainable, that when it collapses, like with high-finance, the refugees will be left without the needed skills to re-enter society at anything near a level commensurate with their intelligence, work-ethic, and talent.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
8 ball
Not so much a lie as it is fleeting and overstated on paper
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ALL of the important lines were accessible from a single manhole???
Hey, when you're illegally tapping internet communications and you want to make sure you get them all, you've got to have that kind of concentration.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
There were multiple fibers in multiple manholes cut very early this AM. There are rumors running around there is another manhole that has been hit as well
8 ball - s this so-called chinese recovery one big lie?
take a look at recent Atlantic issue for James Fallow's view on this question. basically he
thinks China will pull through . for one thing, their stimulus $600 billion goes alot farther
cmpared to the size of their economy.
EHP,
I define mercantilism as the accumulation of money in such a way as to inhibit the creation of new wealth.
The problem with most asian cultures are they are
1] Conservative with ideas/ innovation
2] Geared towards accumulating money.
These habits were useful in an age where most people worked manual, low-tech jobs and the world was truly zero-sum.. they are however worse than useless now. Technology has made the consumer more important than the producer, as production requires fewer people to make things but more to consume, so that the producers can remain in business. Mercantilism unfortunately creates a situation money flows predominantly in one direction and tends to accumulate. Stored money is worse than useless.. it is a liability.
I have long said that unless asians consume much more, they are doomed. The west bought asian stuff since ww2 on credit, and can never pay it back, therefore unless asians consume much more it is over..
About stimulating consumption- I have long advocated giving every adult (starting with the west) an amount of money that would support a lower middle class lifestyle (no strings, no caveats, no adjustments). The only conditions on this money are as follows
1. You cannot carry over money to the next calender year.
2. You cannot spend that money on investments or paying debts.
3. You cannot spend more than 2 months outside the country unless that country has a reciprocal agreement with that country.
Of course the legal and medical systems will have to be reformed, but other than that I do not see any problems.
How does one go long Chinese Auto Insurance companies?
Did you see this from Elizabeth Wurtzel in the WSJ today? The gist of the piece is that elite corp. attorneys have exactly nothing to show for the last twelve years of work. I'm generally not a big fan of hers, but this op-ed piece probably has some merit..
ATM+19,
She's got the gist of a section of Big Law correct, but when she says 12 years of work she's not referring to an individual person. In normal times, 50+% of the people leave by their 3rd year. Partner track is 7 or 8 years, depending on the firm. If you aren't anywhere close to making it, you get counseled to leave well before that. The number of people that make it 12 years is ridiculously small - maybe 2%.
It's not a great business to be in - they chew people up and spit them out. Constantly. Very few are cut out for the gig. But while you're in it you are making bank. From my interactions dealing with Big Law attorneys, perhaps 25% of them are saving the paycheck so that someday soon they can tell the boss to fuck off and never work again. The rest seem to spend so much time at the office that you can't figure out how they manage to spend so much money, but they do, and they never had anything to lose in this market downturn. It was all or nothing. Partnership = rich, otherwise... it was miserable while it lasted.
There were multiple fibers in multiple manholes cut very early this AM. There are rumors running around there is another manhole that has been hit as well
Gotcha. Thanks.
Hey Hoopajoops, what practice area are you in?
From my interactions dealing with Big Law attorneys, perhaps 25% of them are saving the paycheck so that someday soon they can tell the boss to fuck off and never work again.
HI THERE
The third type are the weirdos that make bank and never spend it, without the intent to tell the boss to fuck off. These people are bizarre, insect-like, own little or no furniture, and generally drift off to legal functionary jobs in big corporations.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
The reality is that you could easily cut medical costs by paying medical professionals less and forcibly opening up these professions. Public decimation of the most vocal 10% would work wonders. The reality is that with a few exceptions, most doctors cannot treat anything more than acute/sub-acute illnesses and symptoms.
There are very few chronic illnesses where most drug therapy has any impact on longevity or symptoms. With the exception of statins, antihypertensive medications, baby aspirin and a few newer immunosupressive therapies- most chronic drugs are useless.
For example- no anti-diabetic drug has ever shown to reduce total long term mortality in type 2 diabetes.. did you know that? Only microvascular disease rates are affected by current anti-diabetic drugs.. otherwise the increased rates of heart attack and othet complications in type 2 diabetes ahve never been shown to be reduced by any anti-diabetic drug..
New Thread!
Hey Hoopajoops, what practice area are you in?
BIG LAW corporate, the biggest there is. I am right now replacing names and dates on an SEC filing and, very occasionally, drafting an extra paragraph here or there. Of course I had to attend the very best schools and get the best grades at those schools to be worthy of such a job, not because it's particularly demanding of skill or intellect, but because the very fact that the best and brightest are hired is what the company is purchasing with its dollars. What the best and brightest might be skilled at or whether they would make particularly good biglaw attorneys is a totally separate matter.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"ALL of the important lines were accessible from a single manhole?"
Sounds like they ran a Timmy G stress test. Pass!
Lucifer, gotcha
O/T: Here's something to keep everyone up at night. By the time we have software defined radio, the processing power available, and energy storage density will make for some very creepy robot swarms
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jyBiECoS3Q
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Other than human nature, no.
There are a lot of people who if you'll forgive the pun , would rather reign in Hell than give in a little bit to someone they thought was undeserving.
Cull that self absorbed lot somehow (Democratically and Lawfully please) and it might work.
I'd also suggest that such a stipend be pegged to the size of the economy. if the economy grows so does the stipend. Theoretically it can get to the point where few work anyway as a little is enough.
You'd get free market post scarcity Techno-Marxism
The other chronic diseases where drugs have any worthwhile long term effects
Glaucoma- providing you keep on rotating the meds.
Schizophrenia- If used early in the disease process, antipsychotics can reduce the progression of the disease.
Congestive Heart Failure- Used judiciously drugs can improve survival.
Newer kinase inhibitors for cancers- If they work for you, they do increase survival without horrible side effects.
Ibuprofen and older anti-inflammtories- Ibuprofen does seem the reduce the risk of quite a few chronic illness (Alzheimer's, colon cancer)
"How does one go long Chinese Auto Insurance companies? "
I'll take the other side of that bet. Chinese drivers...
abprosper,
Yes.. we will have to take care of those a**holes. We have to fix these things now... we cannot ignore them like we used to.
sorry blackhalo, I did mean short, lol!!!
GYSC wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 4:57pm.
How does one go long Chinese Auto Insurance companies?
If Chinese drive in China the same way they drive in Irvine, CA then those Chinese Insurance companies are going to be bust in about half an hour!
Cheers!
Bijan
我國可能建立名車一天。
re: cutting fibres
I wonder whether it was vandalism? Someone who knew just which fibres to cut to achieve what happened?
World Bank Data on China, and the present quarter report
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/CH...
This demonstrates the collapse of the US consumer more than the rise of the Chinese one.
And I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords!
Driving into the future. Don't they have air quality issues?