Off Topic (and re-posted from the last thread)... but hey, we can all relax, everything is going to be fine!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090409/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_leveling_off

To plagiarize just a little:

At last, economy leveling off - but bumps not over
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer

When will it grow again? Maybe the final quarter of the year.

Read the whole thing, and tell me you aren't totally convinced. I'm not, but I am SOOO negative by nature.

Blow up a few bridges and we are just a Snake Pliskin short of a movie.

All this happy talk always drives me back to this:

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators

from the last thread;
hong konger,
The currency recalibration is something coming whether any one party likes it or not. I was countering the notion that China could actively appreciate the Renminbi in a care free manner. The stakes are high for those who maintain the most influence on the decision making process. I'm also of the opinion that the USD maintains its 'exorbitant privelege' for at least most of this year, because no asset can be priced independently. I do not blame Asia for this distortion anymore than I could blame the United States for the 1997 'Asian Flu' or the Latin American crises of the 1980s, or any other imbalance that resulted from pricing a currency in a way ignorant of national current account. The post-Asian flu capital controls caused a distortion that merely countered the one existing since WWII. This time I think the size of the positions is finally large enough to take them both down and end the status-quo.

r0m30/Mike,
Thanks, that's what I would have done myself. I thought there may have been a more direct way,

heres a

different definition of a depression

debt, delusion, debt, demand destruction, debt, deflation

swamp otis,
I'm guessing they are trying to sell them to retirees/near-retirement that lost half their savings in the last year between equities and housing. I would presume insurance companies offering stock market performance with guaranteed principal annuities were doing well. So they can sell that as the same thing.

O/T: Got a cold call from a brokerage today according to caller id. Couldn't tell you the last time that happened other than many years ago

energyecon (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 8:58pm.

I heard he was dead...

I thought he'd be taller.

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/07/4-7-ca-foreclosures-about-to-s...

The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that can't be stopped without a national moratorium - this wave is so big I would not put it past them trying it.

My god, can you imagine? A national moratorium on foreclosures? Every sane homeowner would be smart to sell out before that tidal wave hit.

good friday BFF?

sporkfed,

If it's not hard currency, it's not accessible cash. Just ask Argentinians about "bank holidays".

Gavshire's been speculating on this dilution for a while.

Goldman Seeks New Stock Sale
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., riding a rising market, is considering making a multibillion-dollar offering of its shares to investors as part of an effort to repay a $10 billion government loan, according to people familiar with the matter. The move, which could be announced as early as next week, comes as the firm prepares to report solid first-quarter earnings Tuesday

Here's a reference to it, they won approval from the EU.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aA_0OgxlgYHU&refer=e...

Why do I not like the idea of GS buying up energy companies?

LOL bobn...I like that idea better as well.

A national moratorium would send the entire world into a depression so fast there wouldn't be time to undo the damage. I am already concerned about the fallout from even publicly considering the possibility.

thanks to who posted this WSJ link about size of uptick vs. downtick trades which showed money flows out of large stocks. i saved the page.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=t...

top of thursday's list is $355 million in block tick down trades in JPM with an up/down ratio of 10/100.

very telling, GS had $130 million in block sized trades. up/down 0/100. nobody with any big money bought this rally.

JPM up 19.39%
GS up 8.35%

unanimous big money exit on a day when the gov-O-media widely displays the illusion that banks are doing fine and stress test = better bank and not bigger bailout. we should call this WFC day or Bad Thursday...

the length of time that the market remains irrational has been shrinking

hong konger...september and back in equities???? you are braver than i...but sept is an eternity away

ac, yes indeed, and my wife bought into the 2nd too

the good lord created all men equal...and sam colt made women equal to men too

first im an unqualified fool so this opinion is worthless

Excuse me, but I resent that. I read your comments and consider them. Are you telling me I'm wasting my time?

C'mon man, if you don't think you're as good as anyone else out there, why should I?

Seriously, and Comarade Kristina, I always take care of my bartendaer and I've never looked down on a bartender in my life.

That's a f'n fact, jack.

BTW, it's jack on the rocks.

mock turtle,

Let me be as clear as I can be. I'm not trained in matters economic. But I can think for myself. Every opinion expressed on this site is worth exactly what every one of us is charged to read it, which, last time I checked, was a big zero.

CR used to have a tip jar. OMG, he outgrew that. Maybe it had something to do with the opinions expressed in his comments, that is to say in capitalist terms, his popularity.

Maybe not. Maybe he is just that good. There could even be other reasons. It doesn't matter now.

The guys that wrote the Second Amendment didn't say you had to pass a test to have a right to keep and bear arms, did they?

Speaking selfishly (though I frequently agree with you), it's the divergence of opinions that keeps me interested.

EEnigineer, I hope you passed because I was getting a little concerned there.

Those couple of weeks were really amusing. SO many have forgotten that despite zero cost financing banks will eventually have to pay the bailout money back. That will have a rather interesting effect on their long term profitability. Fundamentals my ...
I am glad though that NASDAQ is the best performing index in the last quarter. Hopefully there are rational people out there that stick to what matters the most when it comes to equities = positive current/expected cash flows.

p.s. pleasure to read your comments today, thank you guys.

p.s.s. As of a special WFC product, I can't believe there is an insurance company that allows itself to insure 15% drop in the face value linked to S&P. (do they ever learn?)
Well at least they were smart enough to cover only the first 15% face value drop.

Worse than a moratorium. The governor's special commission is reconsidering Prop 13.

http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2009/apr/09/tax-panel-promises-to-...

TJ, serious question, is $870 a buy point or should I wait for a lower number?

Depends. Do you have any already -and- Are you looking to make a big purchase or many small ones?

"would've wiped out the NAZ's profits."

he probably meant diluted not wiped out. you are correct in a way, because only a small percentages of firms in the NSADAQ do have profits. Still those that do, will probably continue to make money. Besides your average tech company is much more competitive than your average well connected dinosaur that led the current rally.

p.s. "Is there really any "there" there???" - it depends on your risk tolerance. , however revenue - all of the expenses (in the near future) is what I mean by positive cash flows. (positive operating cash flows; pension liabilities , shareholder dilution is more of the balance statement and distant future going concern issue. And when it comes to distant future we ether just don't know or trick ourselves by believing we do)

"despite zero cost financing banks will eventually have to pay the bailout money back."

Uh, huh. Sure via campaign contributions to get it forgiven.

"The governor's special commission is reconsidering Prop 13. "

Dude has to make payroll some how. What else is he going to do, pardon all non-violent drug offenders?

Well, at least Rob Dawg and I will get to vote on 'reconsidering' Prop 13. They can do a whole lot without putting it to a vote, but changing the State Constitution isn't one of those things.

The prospect of Prop 13 being "modified" would trigger a far reaching exodus of wealth from the State that goes well beyond real estate. The productive class of California would correctly interpret this as a sign that their assets and labor were no longer their own.

Silver's an absolute steal these days.

I'm not that sure. It really is locked into 70:1. I like it only because it's the stuff that keeps you going, i.e., small transactions.

If Ag ever traded at 80-85:1 to Au, I'd be all over it, but 70 seems about right to me. I don't know that we'll ever see 50:1 again in my lifetime. I suppose it's possible, but it hasn't been in play for a very long time.

Sorry, but typing has become a chore. Kristina, if you're still online, my server did well tonight.

G'night, folks.

Rob Dawg and TJ, Prop 13 remains gospel in my religion. Don't ask.

"exodus of wealth from the State"

My guess is that is an eventuality that is unavoidable. That wealth may really be a lot of dead weight if they are not willing to pony up for the cost of maintaining and protecting that wealth.

I suspect that if the alternative route of cutting costs is implemented, the "wealthy" will end up leaving anyway, as the benefits of that spending impact the states quality of life.

Cali is like the rest of the USA on steroids. It is my impression that the excesses are magnified there and so will be the payback. I see the wealthy moving to any other port to avoid that storm, whichever way you go.

I'm not that sure.

I am, and am positioned accordingly. I'll bore you with the details some other time (if you're so inclined).

what else does fuel the value of the gold if not the above?

To a casual non-humanoid observer from another galaxy that would certainly appear to be the case.

However, for us irrational humans it's something else entirely, and our desire for it moves inversely with political and economic stability. Given that the latter is becoming ever more unstable, the outlook for PMs couldn't be better. Although it is certainly a subject of speculation, for most it's still the best port in a storm.

Always remember the golden rule: He who has the gold makes the rules!

Dawg,

It's the "services tax" that scares me. Talk about Pandora's box; that would kill businesses quicker than a split-roll.

Here's what you're all fighting: Cramer called the bottom yesterday, said true bottom was weeks ago and this rally will continue to the rapture. He called the end of the depression and only a lingering mild recession going forward. He even said bank fundamentals are strong. Great time to buy! I assume he doesn't dream this up on his own, but is tapped into a crowd of like sentiment.

So, who you going to believe? Your own lying eyes, or Cramer?