I think the mark-to-market changes bought the banks another quarter. They'll all report surprisingly good profits for Q1, while setting aside very little for loan losses.
Zombie banks and vampire credit card companys. TARP is the mummy, all wrapped up in tape and no one gets to see whats underneath.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
That greedy, risk-taking "talent" that the banks hold dear is jumping ship from Tarpistan and heading to smaller start-ups, to show that greed and crazy risk ain't dead yet....
"To deter the people it thinks caused the crisis, the government is clamping down.
Sensing a shifting tide, talented bankers who fear a dimmer future at banks that have taken taxpayer money are migrating to brash boutique firms like Aladdin, which are intent on proving their critics wrong by chasing fast profits and growth in hopes of one day rising up as challengers to the old guard. "
Nice to know. From the NYTimes, just posted. ( am upstate, cannot provide a link).
Hey Folks,
I went to the 'anewwayforward.org ' street protest' at the A.I.G building in Dallas,tx,
nice weather , nice folks , lots of ' networking''
lower turnout than i wanted (@50) . goood signs , people honked ,waved ,'thumbs-up"
was '200- to one' " positive !!!!! (1 kid yelled "I hate you all " i did say he was young !!!
I THOUGHT A.I.G. was not the appropriate site , it should have been the
"F.R.B." SOME AGREED . (AT LEAST I WAS ' ONE MORE WARM BODY)
FUTURE DALLAS, TX PROTEST SITES :
4/152009 DALLAS CITY HALL "NEW TEA BAG PARTY' 6-9 P.M.
(GO EARLY , SO LOCAL T.V. CAN GET VIDEO FOR 6:00 P.M. BROADCAST !!!
/////
//
ATTN: 4/25/2009 PROTEST AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK DALLAS ,TEXAS
YESSSS , THE F.RB. BWAHAHAHAAA I AM SO THERE !!!!!!!!!!!
STAND UP FOR YOR RIGHTS;
OR YOU HAVE NO RIGHTS !!!!
S.O.F.
Six month in this gov. fiscal year and we have about $956B deficit. By the end of the fiscal year we will have $2T deficit.
$2T is about $20,000 per each US household of new debt. Wonderfull !
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090411/ts_afp/financeeconomyusbudget_20090...
wawawa,
NBD, it's all just green paper.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
BTW, even though he's a die-hard Keynesian, isn't it nice to have "The Conscience of a Liberal" be the administration's biggest economic policy gadfly? It's not like they can blow him off as simply a partisan attack dog.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
They really screwed the pooch on this one. No matter the answer it won't be believed. Partial disclosure will doom those in silence. And now they've put on a deadline.
Still waiting for the Board of Governors to order the SEC suspension of material events reporting due to national security concerns.
Still waiting for the Board of Governors to order the SEC suspension of material events reporting due to national security concerns.
The initiation of the secretive TAF program should've triggered "material event disclosure" concerns way back when, but it didn't. Given all the carnage since I'm amazed that someone hasn't sued everyone involved for billions.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
George Orwell is crying in his grave now.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
"RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON" 
Here's a lesson for the bulls that want to swim with the bears.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/11/polar-bear-attack-at-germ_n_185...
This is a must watch.
Happy easter - $100 billion 3 egg omelet
http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/04/11/the-top-10-signs-you-are-living-i...
The dead walk amongst us
Halo-ized comments at http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
No javascript.
No left "gutter"
Should load on anything.
"Capital Capital, Capital" Zombie Citi
"Cap-pi-tal... Cap-pi-tal... " - Zombie BAC
I wish I had known about the AIG Dallas protest. I can see it from my second floor east windows. I sound like Sarah Palin...
BTW, even though he's a die-hard Keynesian, isn't it nice to have "The Conscience of a Liberal" be the administration's biggest economic policy gadfly? It's not like they can blow him off as simply a partisan attack dog.
Yeah, funny that. When he was criticizing Bush/Cheney Paulson, Krugman was a poinyt headed librul socialist, someone to ignore. And if he said anything about wasting 1 Trillion plus in Iraq, well hey, he hated America. Good times.
The dead walk amongst us
I just wish we could go "Resident Evil" on'em. 
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Notice how Prof Krugman looks like George Clooney in Syriana? Coincidence? Yep!
Krugman also trying to muscle in on some Roubini groupie action.
- Nemo
I don't think Paul is Rachel's type.
the debt-drowned United States is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast !!!
Remember back in early 1980's the USA was just beginning to be a debtor nation with assclown Reagan.
note: Iceland's de facto bankruptcy-its currency (the krona) is kaput, its debt is 850 percent of G.D.P., its people are hoarding food and cash and blowing up their new Range Rovers for the insurance-resulted from a stunning collective madness."
98% of Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
I would love to listen in on a phone conversation between Obama & GWB... what do you bet it would be all about what a pain in the ass that Krugman guy is.
...........Germany set to reveal 'bad bank' policy.............
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d84404a8-2630-11de-be57-00144feabdc0.html
...........any German version of stress test yet?...............
"Cap-pi-tal... Cap-pi-tal... " - Zombie BAC ... Good one, Tim.
Stress Tests: Who Will Take the Fall?
km4,
Although I'm not one to minimize our future obligations, the fact that the *current* debt and GDP are racing towards each other is history in the making... and not the kind you like to be around to see. Throw in the Fed's blatant monetization and it looks like we're going to teach so-called "banana republics" how the big boys do it.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Watch the whole movie:
Night of the Living Dead
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhgVHTVi_h4
"Immune" is a funny word. So far it means "next market to go down".
CR, that was hilarious!!!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
:: ::
Although I'm not one to minimize our future obligations, the fact that the *current* debt and GDP are racing towards each other is history in the making... and not the kind you like to be around to see. Throw in the Fed's blatant monetization and it looks like we're going to teach so-called "banana republics" how the big boys do it.
:: ::
Except they can grow bananas - we would have to import them.
Pick Krugman out of the lineup...
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/111272/605855
Dawg's right, they screwed the pooch. Everyone has been watching this and too much has been placed on it, so any sense of impropriety or uncertainty is a killer.
Course, the other possibility is that they really didn't know how bad it was going to be. General rule of trial lawyer thumb is that you don't ask a question if you don't know the answer; could be that they're simply blindsided.
homedad43
Except they can grow bananas - we would have to import them. - dryfly
Just don't forget my offer to trade avocados for brookies still stands.
:: ::
Just don't forget my offer to trade avocados for brookies still stands.
:: ::
Check.
GS in a hurry to do a capital raise before stress tests are released. Seems a little odd until you remember that GS could have zero assets and would pass stress tests with straight "A"s.
Doncha know ? They're the smartest guys on the planet... (and as insurance have an in with the operation conducting the tests).
Course, the other possibility is that they really didn't know how bad it was going to be. ...could be that they're simply blindsided.
The 2x4 of reality to the back of the head has a way of causing temporary blindness. At least this time this President didn't say "this sucker's going down" while the cameras were rolling.
bobnbot,
How did you do that?
Personally, I prefer Shaun of the Dead...
[I don't think Paul is Rachel's type]
Ha! Do you happen to know what her type is ? I get the impression she might not have any interest in anyone that happens to be the same gender as Krugman.
homedad43
...could be they just want to eat you...
I think Larry and Tim set up the tests with the intention of passing all, or all but one or maybe two, of the 19. My guess is that a lot of the rumors we're hearing now are trial balloons to see how close to zero they can make the failure rate. I definitely don't get the impression that Larry/Tim are going to overshoot on shrinking the banking sector.
>Here's a lesson for the bulls that want to swim with the bears.
I don't know one word of German. But what I got outta this video is...if a polar bear is taking a bit outta your ass, you are hoping there's somebody there to haul your ass to safety.
I don't know. Why do you think this guy is so bullish? Seems kinda slow to me.
bobnbot,
How did you do that?
Through a browser and regular comments page 
While doing a packet capture with wireshark, so I can learn how it works.
There will be a few more as I figure this out.
Why don't we just admit it? The stress tests were another one of Geithner/Obama's bad economic ideas. They didn't know what the f'ck they were talking about or getting into. That's what CR and some other smart people here said from the start.
Now, they're trying to dump the bad idea down the sewer. Krugman is like the Ghost of Christmas Past.
T2
Behold, the next wave of reality television, shows about repossession:
http://www.trutv.com/video/operation-repo/wont-give-up-that-easy.html?li...
Let this satisfy your need for economic schadenfreude while we wait for the other shoe to drop
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Except they can grow bananas - we would have to import them.
I was going to say "what about Hawaii" until I read this...
Hawaii's banana growers haven't shipped the fruit to the mainland since 1984. That's when ethylene dibromide gas, used to disinfest bananas and other fruits of any hitchhiking fruit flies, was banned.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
:: ::
patientrenter wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 10:51pm.
I think Larry and Tim set up the tests with the intention of passing all, or all but one or maybe two, of the 19. My guess is that a lot of the rumors we're hearing now are trial balloons to see how close to zero they can make the failure rate. I definitely don't get the impression that Larry/Tim are going to overshoot on shrinking the banking sector.
:: ::
Never ask a question you don't already know the answer to. If you can make up the answer yourself - all the better.
rich wrote:
Krugman is like the Ghost of Christmas Past
Bingo. Most people I know have decided that everything is going to be fine now. This includes some very educated people, several CEOs, a big-5 private banker, a national bank EVP, senior director of a top-3 national bank private equity division, member of the board of large regional financial institution. The regional fed bank governor I know has somewhat hollow eyes these days; otherwise everything is, uh, "on track." FWIW, none of these people thought trouble was coming; CR (and Tanta) gave me the heads up.
I've not often agreed with Krugman in recent years, but he has increasing credibility.
The question I ask these authorities is what has changed that things are going to be monotonically improving. If we have successfully restored the status quo, why won't the Fall '08 traumas recur? Better regulation? Most people think that somehow the financial sector will spontaneously reorganize into a system that is stable and improving. In decades of systems engineering I've never seen a system do anything spontaneously except fall into a pit. Emergent behavior is not in your favor.
Apparently nothing but optimism is acceptable anymore. It's frightening how intolerant people are of questions about the stability of our economic system. Lots of "logical discussion" but it's mostly rearranging deck chairs while the band plays. Smart people; much wishful thinking; little common sense; very frustrating.
Andrew Sullivan on the "Tea Tantrums" - Great piece:
As a fiscal conservative who actually believed in those principles when the Republicans were in power, I guess I should be happy at this phenomenon. And I would be if it had any intellectual honesty, any positive proposals, and any recognizable point. What it looks like to me is some kind of amorphous, generalized rage on the part of those who were used to running the country and now don't feel part of the culture at all. But the only word for that is: tantrum.
These are not tea-parties. They are tea-tantrums. And the adolescent, unserious hysteria is a function not of a movement regrouping and refinding itself. It's a function of a movement's intellectual collapse and a party's fast-accelerating nervous breakdown.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/04/time-for-te...
Not long ago, Krugman was treating the banksters with kid gloves (He still does that with Bernanke). Looks like Benny has opened Fraud NonDisclosure Facility to banksters but not to credit unions.
Not sure if this has been posted yet ......
Goldman Sachs Tries To Shut Down Dissident Blogger
From the nerd's at Slashdot /.
http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/04/11/2152251&art_pos=2
Newspaper linked to in the /. article -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5137489/...
The web site in question -
http://www.goldmansachs666.com/
Let's hope you or Mish aren't next in GS's sights ......
"spatch"
"We're Boned"
- Bender
Krugman made some really silly calls in the early 90's for those of you that were in the game back then. Look up "The Age of Diminished Expectations". He kept saying that the US was done, our standard of living was going to collapse, and our competitiveness would suffer significantly. Then the Internet happened... Proved him wrong on most points.
I love the guy, took courses from him at Stanford, but he has made some really seriously fucked calls. Just saying - weigh it all up.
Look up "The Age of Diminished Expectations"
Krugman was 10 years early and missed massive bubble-blowing by the Fed
Proved him wrong on most points.
Wrong... or just early?
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
His time frame was for thing to unwind in the early/mid 90's. He was wrong. He is a great analyst, but a horrible forecaster. If you've never studied economics, it's easy to get caught up in his writing.
Remember the context as well. He was writing in the depths of the early 90's recession - saying basically the same thing he's saying now....
dk,
Hell, most of us are wrong on the timing, otherwise we'd be all be richer than Croesus. What I'm curious about is did he correctly identify the underlying problems in our socio-economic system, even if their appearance was "somewhat delayed".
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
TJ - tenuous at best. IF we're talking about his trade theory he was years ahead of his time and he certainly deserved the Nobel. If we're talking about his recent pop economics, I would have to say he's not really doing the research anymore to back up his claims or form solid conclusions. He's also not really providing any workable solutions, looking instead to ride the "Uber Bear" into fame and fortune - and perhaps the pants of some of Nouriel's groupies.
Roubini has been way more spot on than Krugman, btw. He was only 4 years early, and his 12 steps was pretty spot on.. Krugman's forecasting has also drifted considerably over the last three years - Roubini has been far more consistent, and is still running the numbers to back his calls.
If you've never studied economics, it's easy to get caught up in his writing.
No need to be condescending.
Soros predicted market major financial meltdowns three times, two earlier calls were off, the last one was about the current mess. He bet last year against USD and lost. That does not make what he has to say less important.
Nobody has a perfect batting average. Krugman is smart and has thought a lot about Japan's lost decade - that makes him one of more credible guys around.
New Thread, if nobody noticed. (not it's still a human).
TJ - also alot of what Krugman is doing is because he was snubbed by Obama. He wasn't invited to participate in the administration, he wasn't listened to, etc... He has a serious axe to grind and he's going to hammer on them every chance he gets. His calls are clouded by his wounded ego. He was previously bitter in private, but since he won the Nobel he gone public seeing as now he can "back up" his claims.
Like I said - I love the guy - and most of his criticisms are correct (of the stimulus bill, TARP, PPIP). My issue is that other people said it sooner, with more clarity, and are providing a solution beyond "SPEND MORE STIMULUS".
He's also not really providing any workable solutions
I'm of the opinion that there really aren't any, other than to let it work itself out. Painful, yes, but a hangover's a hangover.
Regardless, thanks for the insight dk.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
TJ - I tend to agree. The abyss is now staring into us...
As goes my tagline...
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
[Krugman was 10 years early and missed massive bubble-blowing by the Fed ]
No way to deny the fact that a bubble bailed us out in the late '90s but at least there was innovation and, like it or not, efficiencies went through the roof. The 2002-2006/7 bubble was pure bullshit financial reckless leverage and harvard business school grads gone wild. Nothing invented per se.
Krugman is right this time unless there's some new invention, and fast, that blows his doomer predictions.
A stopped clock is right twice a day. If you're bearish for long enough, you'll be right (or at close enough for the media). Predicted economic crisis, high interest rates and the crash of the dollar. Well we have an economic crisis but interest rates are low and the dollar is climbing. That's close enough.
Everyone wants to fix the banking system. No one seems to care that the banking system isn't broken. The Commercial paper market is dead, the bond market is basically close, the equity market is a shambles. The only capital source that is working is the banks, providing loans, face to face, with companies and people who can actually pay back the loans. Now they want to turn that over to the politician to see if we can collapse the whole system back to a barter economy.
Two men carry a third man into a doctors office. The doctor looks at the injured man and nods. "Amputate left foot." One of the men looks at the doctors. "It looks like his right arm is broken." The doctor say "I'm the doctor. Proper treatment is the Swedish procedure: Amputate left foot. Don't worry, I've done it a thousand times. Very good at it."
Im of the opinion that from day 1, the name of the game was stall. You can pretty much design one bad but slightly different and seemingly clever plan after another, after another, and then string them together...let them out every few months...deliver each with a date, miss the deadline a bit for fine tuning, blame something unforeseeable when it fails miserably, and then go to the next. I keep thinking they are on the last plan, and yet each time they manage another pile of steaming BS. It's kick the can, Scatman. And you know you cant cheat death forever.
geoff
HAL : I'm afraid. I'm afraid, Dave. Dave, my mind is going. (CHONG : Dave's not here.)
Never attribute to chance what you can attribute to malice
This is all that comes to mind when I hear things like "they got blindsided"or "it was a bad idea,"
so when you see a zombie movie what you're seeing are these singularly focused entities
which, by the way, is pretty much what a smart person is, (see:buddhism,;check:naropa) It's someone who is consumed by focus and until
the point they've lost everything, they're unable to conceive of themselves losing anything(see:Mary Shelley;check:Frankenstein), so what we're witnessing is the battle of the best and the brightest against themselves as they try to validate an expired ticket, so to speak, and what they don't understand is that being wrong isn't so bad, so long as you're wrong early, and often. It's like learning to say you're sorry to your wife when you're still not sure what you did wrong, you know, the first rule of holes is stop digging, but not these
guys, they're going to< make it> to China because? They're the Best and the Brightest! When the reality is most of us know some Happy Homemaker who knows whats coming in, and knows whats going out, and loves the sound of NO.. (no that's not a misspelling Mr. Blankfein she didn't say you know, she said You! No!) and she could unwind those trades for a fraction of whatever todays going rate for a best and bright is, but I wouldn't want to be around while she was doing it, and I wouldn't be around when she was finished know w'm sayin'? So there's hope,see, the problem for zombies is they can't react, so that lame ass head fake you used in high-school ball, it actually works on a zombie(heads up to Mr. O who I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but now I'm just giving him the doubt) when you're onto them, and make no mistake, dudes is onto them, at that point their moves are, like,creepin'(pardon the pun) and you're all "I can't believe you're trying that" which is basically where we are now.
The thing to remember is that, even though there's a lot of zombies you got to stick wit' your bros and homegirls, the zombies won't last, because they're dead (barter like Robdawg and dryfly) because the sun< will>come up, and it will be brighter than the best and the tightest{stet} ever were...
Tomatoes, elk sausage... onions and garlic grow just about anywhere...you're going to wonder what you thought you were going to miss
That's just MHO...
roger and out
There are no zombie banks; only zombie bloggers.
"Na-tional-ize. Na-tional-ize." -- Zombie Roubini.
"He kept saying that the US was done, our standard of living was going to collapse, and our competitiveness would suffer significantly. Then the Internet happened... Proved him wrong on most points."
Proved him wrong...huh? Which point did he get wrong?
If the government were really intent on never letting this happen again, they would be regulating all mortgages to require at least 20% down and be 30 yr fixed. It's not complicated.
"His calls are clouded by his wounded ego."
This Dr Phil meets Oracle-we've-all-been-waiting-for routine is really quite the yawn. Just sayin
Don't offer the man Brains, give him some Taffy!
The man is begging for taffy. It's written all over his face.
Please someone get him some taffy!
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||//////////////////////////
"He kept saying that the US was done, our standard of living was going to collapse, and our competitiveness would suffer significantly. Then the Internet happened... Proved him wrong on most points."
Proved him wrong...huh? Which point did he get wrong?
-------------------
I think there are 2 schools of thought (lol)
1. A few look at net worth and the capacity of Americans to provide for themsleves (producing their own goods and services)
2. Most look at assets (without marking them down or looking at liabilities) and the Amercians' competitive ability to print money.
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Sullivan is a bigot
Denninger has a good summary of the recent market action:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
IMO: when does it stop? Simply when actual negative money flow for the day can no longer be concealed under a price rise, as presumably the quants are not playing for a loss. We are at the phase where they are unloading into the climb. Consistently, volume has been declining as price rises, this is especially clearly on weekly charts (SPX, SPY, SSO, DJIA…). When volume drops below a critical level =liquidity required, the pseudo-rally is finally cooked.
Hope? Well of course there is always hope. But "Cut the sunny sunshine routine" as Krugman says. There seems to be a fine line between not inducing panic and misinformation. This is especially troubling considering that the least informed investors are the small retail guys and presumably the only suckers left to buy into this rally. However, there may be more common sense among "the masses" than some realize. According to my own little (non scientific) survey, I have been extremely surprised to find almost no one, including among blue collar workers, who is not strictly focused on the numbers: unemployment and bail outs. Rosy preaching won't cut it, sorry. Common sense has been hammered into those most in contact with the reality of the crisis.
Krugman is right on some points, and dead wrong on others:
1. He is correct that the current administrations attempts to maintain the system are doomed to fail, and possibly corrupt.
2. He is 100% wrong in saying that MORE stimulus is needed. The Keynesian ideal of surplus in the good time, and deficit in the bad flies out the window when the country, as a whole, has been running a massive deficit for a decade. We have been borrowing our standard of living for 10 years or more. The reason the system is collapsing is that we can not support the debt we have accumulated. There is only one solution...to liquidate approximately $20 Trillion in debt....and it IS going to happen, one way of the other.
A normal debt to GDP ratio (for all segments total) is going to return to the long term sustainable norm of 160-170%. Lets just hope it does not overshoot well below that.
Tax receipts are collapsing. Before all is said and done...approximately 50% of this years Federal outlays WILL BE BORROWED!! THAT is sustainable....sure.
Krugman also trying to muscle in on some Roubini groupie action.
- Nemo