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Pow...to the moon...this sets up SRS again, right?
$1.8 Billion - that's nothing compared to the whisper number.
Meanwhile....
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the second- biggest U.S. home lender, may need $50 billion to pay back the federal government and cover loan losses as the economic slump deepens, according to KBW Inc.'s Frederick Cannon.
KBW expects $120 billion of "stress" losses at Wells Fargo, assuming the recession continues through the first quarter of 2010 and unemployment reaches 12 percent, Cannon wrote today in a report. The San Francisco-based bank may need to raise $25 billion on top of the $25 billion it owes the U.S. Treasury for the industry bailout plan, he wrote.
Dilution will mitigate some of the major pop.
Glad they can pay back our money with our money. All it took was $12+ trillion in bailout commitments mostly geared to the financial sector. Money well spent. What is the IRR for that?
What was the whisper number Mark?
There are lies, damned lies and Goldman Sachs profit reports.
Has Obama sent the Navy Seals to the GS HQ yet?
Folks, GS *says* it is making the offering with the intention to pay back the TARP. That is probably not true. They need money and private money is afraid. So, let's gin the market, report operating profits, claim we're fine, say we're darn pissed about government meddling, help us throw the evil socialists off our backs by being a pretty and giving us a couple bucks. The TARP story is a cover story to get private money. Then, private money in hand, it will be learned anew that the government won't take back the TARP money.
"Damn that meddlesome government," GS will say. "Well, we tried."
Thanks for playing.
You would think GS could have done a good deal better after getting 12B from uncle sugar to pay off the AIG CDS IN FULL, after claiming they had already written the position down substantially. Something smells like fish.
"'Profit.' I do not think that word means what you think it means." - Señor Intoya
So lets:
1. Mark to maybe
2. Post bonus amounts later
3. Get an overnight deposit from the Fed to bloat the Balance Sheet
4. Postpone all accts payable (issue IOUs)
5. Send a big check to O
6. Pay HP his ghost retainer
So lets:
1. Mark to maybe
2. Post bonus amounts later
3. Get an overnight deposit from the Fed to bloat the Balance Sheet
4. Postpone all accts payable (issue IOUs)
5. Send a big check to O
6. Pay HP his ghost retainer
Since a strong leader makes a strong nation, I for one am pleased to see that our country's true rulers are doing so well.
- Nemo
How many quarters of $1.8 billion profit does it take to get to a $1.7 trillion profit?
Elivs that would be 1000, no?
Unemployment unemshloyment. GM? G'bye.
As long as the real, all American, value creating companies like GS are reporting profits, we're back on track, folks.
It might be time for GS to start a couple of new corporations, perhaps the Shenadoah II and Blue Ridge II would be appropriate?
Comrade Scott, it's not necessarily gonna set off the moon shot. Obvviously, in today's ginned up market, you never know, but WFC set expectations with a 'record' profit. Where's GS's record profit? Wasn't there an expectation for 'profts' to be comparable? Wasn't the rumor on the street yesterday for the 2nd highest profit to be reported.
This could be factored in. Market rollover might still be imminent, with buy the rumor, sell the news operating.
Or anything else in the world might follow, who knows nowadays.
Arbitmacht - please don't pick on my neighborhood...
Full Stop --
If you read the term sheet for the TARP, you will find it is quite explicit about when the recipients can repay the money:
Senior Preferred may not be redeemed for a period of three years from the
date of this investment, except with the proceeds from a Qualified Equity
Offering (as defined below) which results in aggregate gross proceeds to
the QFI of not less than 25% of the issue price of the Senior Preferred.
"Qualified Equity Offering" shall mean the sale by the QFI after the date
of this investment of Tier 1 qualifying perpetual preferred stock or
common stock for cash.
It is not a matter of getting "permission" to repay the TARP. Goldman received $20 billion, so they have to raise 25% of that ($5 billion) privately if they want to repay the TARP early. All the noise about "permission" is nonsense; the terms were set up from the start and are quite clear.
- Nemo
FS - I was being a little snarky...I'm still licking my EEV wounds and avoiding the leveraged shorts.
I think this is puffery and a Bear Rally, and you are spot on about rollover, but yeah, who really knows...
Thanks, Nemo.
Deleted because I was being an asshole
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Comrade, we are all New Yorkers now. Tied at the hip by unscrupulous actions by a precious few, who plied their traits in your fine city.
Arbitrage is for lack of a bettor word, Hedging.
In Godwin we trust.
Goldman Sacks again.. rape and pillaging deferred to next quarter!
I'd like to know earnings/share today vs projected one year from now.
I scratch my head at this continuing rally, and the meme that commodity inflation is a given in the near future. Freeport McMoran has tripled off their low; yes copper itself has strengthened, but with no construction (Residential and commercial, esp), cars in the crapper, planes and ships being delayed, and horrible industrial production numbers, where is the copper going to go. Roads in China?
Oregon doesnt have the large public sector so that's what accounts for the high unemployment rates.
GS has to explode higher or else they will fizzle down... IMO
We're witnessing one of the greatest non-violent crime sprees in history.
Taxpayers making a good return on our GS investment...depressionistas beware, your negativity will cost you money...or you can continue to stock pile guns and gold...
Accounting rule changes just prior to earnings season was certainly convenient wasn't it now???
It might be time for GS to start a couple of new corporations, perhaps the Shenadoah II and Blue Ridge II would be appropriate?
Arbitrage, you know something, don't you?
Isn't GS using different account rules now that it is no longer an "investment" bank? I seem to recall that GS had applied to become a chartered bank, which have very different report & regulatory rules.
In short, I am curious as to how comparable the recent GS financial statements are to older ones which may have used different rules.
Taxpayers making a good return on our GS investment...depressionistas beware, your negativity will cost you money...or you can continue to stock pile guns and gold...
So I guess you're saying you were really really wrong about Buffet and GS, but you're really really right about GS and any possible depression?
where is the copper going to go. Roads in China?
... follow the green brick, follow the green brick, follow the green brick road...
depressionistas are former Starbucks baristas
Arbitrage Macht Frei,
I appreciate the pun in the "screen name" you're using. I ask you to consider that others, possibly just me, find it outrageously offensive.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
This is simply a lie - GS did not make a profit. They took my money and called it a profit.
Lucky for them that money is fungible. We should have given them special dollars.
I get a kick out of watching you XYZ acronym bettors gambling on sure bets that aren't.
Wally
You are wrong they made a profit off your money.
hahaha, Crispy & C
lawyerliz
Look at the release. TheFICC line blew it out. The FICC bsuiness took $800M of marks BEFORE HEDGES!!! read AIG money flowed in and allowed it to cruish the number. The iolliquid assets continued to fall in value. Assets INCREASED $20B to $925B or so. L3 went down $6B.
The stub in Dec lost $2.15 per share. That was one month.
The only other business to do well was the debt underwriting with the FDIC backed debt - thank you taxpayer.
The deal is book accretive which was the plan all along. Why anyone would buy this deal above book is a mystery but Im sure the mroons in the mutual complex will be salivating for it...Thank your 401Ks.
Sad
crispy&cole wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 1:57pm.
"Taxpayers making a good return on our GS investment...depressionistas beware, your negativity will cost you money...or you can continue to stock pile guns and gold..."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now you just sound like an idiot.
I wonder if the AIG payment was in unmarked bills.
- Nemo
meanwhile GS continues to trickle lower in the aftermarket...
Did not see posted yet. But on a financial board this was noticed
poster 1-Am I the only one that thinks it's whack that GS quarter was four months long? (4Q2008 ended November 30, 2008 and 1Q2009 ended March 27, 2009)
poster 2--Since they became a bank holding company, they were required to switch from fiscal year to calendar year. This was part of the deal to get TARP funds. They needed it desperately. Looks like they desperately need more capital so that they can go back to paying their large bonuses. However, their IB model is dead.
poster 1-All understandable, but you would think that such info would be part of the story. Revenues sharply lower, and net income barely higher during a period that was 33% longer than the comparison periods.
Sooooo it would seem that they may be looking at total Revenue from a four month quarter Vs. three-
Nothing to see here move along
Popeye,
Sometimes one must go on the offensive. Sorry to those so offended.
St. Petersburg, FL PD slicing up homeless peoples' tents?
This sure ticks me off. To top it off in the reported story the cop representative then went and lied about it! What a piece of work! As for why the cops didn't just have the people move their own belongings (including the tents), I have no clue - instead they slice them up? For these cops the term PIGS fits just fine. Worthless pieces of cow-shit works better for me. That's right. I said it. And, I haven't been drinking or doing drugs. Not even the gorilla-forehead mongo-crap 'roids the cops shoot-up to help fight the "bad guys"........like those dangerous aged homeless bad guys that had only their tents to get in out of the daily rain in St. Pete.
No wonder there are shows like COPS shown on TV - To help override the negative PR the cops give themselves by doing stupid-shit stuff like this..... Can you tell I'm ticked?
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
I wonder if the AIG payment was in unmarked bills.
- Nemo
Yes. HP.
C&C
Please enlighten us with your trading strategies?
nemo wrote:
is not a matter of getting "permission" to repay the TARP. Goldman received $20 billion, so they have to raise 25% of that ($5 billion) privately if they want to repay the TARP early. All the noise about "permission" is nonsense; the terms were set up from the start and are quite clear.
* * * *
Actually, your statement is nonsense. The company's primary federal regulator (in this case, the Fed) must approve any capital redemption, for tarp or any other equity security. It's the law.
Last September GS capital raise signaled a new top in the market.
This is simply a lie - GS did not make a profit. They took my money and called it a profit.
Don't forget changing the accounting rules to create the illusion of profit.
PonziWorld.
S, congratulations. I submit 'lolliquid assets' for a place in the CR lexicon.
how are they even making any profit if most of their so called asset is in MBS? This is a load of bs -.- Moral of the story is to be a crook and get rewarded!
Taking away too big to fail perps passports might be a good move at this juncture.
Last week, I called S&P "just plain stupid" for putting Ford on negative credit watch after buying back billions in bonds at a discount, and suggested that their ratings website should have a comments section.
Guess what...
"Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its credit ratings on auto maker Ford Motor Co. and its related entities, but kept the ratings in highly speculative territory, following the completion of the company's debt-reduction efforts last week.
The ratings agency, which last week had placed its corporate credit rating on Ford at selective default amid the completion of the tender offers, boosted its rating to CCC+. Before the debt exchange, the rating was four notches lower at CC."
So, when will their website have a moderated comments section? Oh, and when are they finally going to downgrade Citi to junk?
Of the $13 billion the taxpayers borrowed (the grandkids won't mind I'm sure) and routed to GS via AIG a whopping $6 billion showed up as profit in their FICC trades. I'll spend my evening rejoicing that the black hole has become a mere sieve. I can't wait to pour in more cash.
GS reported the stub seperately. The FICC numbers are suspect. They note that the year ago quarter had marks net of hedges (as opposed to the FICC before hedges). Why report apples and oranges. The question is what were the hedge results in FICC that drove such a huge number. Also ifd you have so much cash why raise more? Well maybe bec they have $200 plus billion in lt debt. They have $60B or so in Level III assets and a $900B balance sheet . The obfuscation here is just mind boggling. if everyone pretends I guess that makes it reality.
It feels like i'm watching a baseball game, where one team is obligated to follow the rules, and the other side can do whatever it feels like, and always wins by a score of 17-2, somehow.
AMF, the joke *is* funny, but wears on repetition, leaving only the ugliness. Perhaps proving your creativity by coming up with a second equally-punned moniker without the sad aftertaste would allow me to enjoy your oft-interesting comments without unneeded distraction.
makeamove, GS was active in M&A while that market was interesting. They're acquisitive and sharp. Are most of their assets MBS?
jas, this one's is for the dopiest of the dopes in america - why we are a banana republic
http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/04/11/the-top-10-signs-you-are-living-i...
interested --
The company's primary federal regulator (in this case, the Fed) must approve any capital redemption, for tarp or any other equity security.
Of course, but that has nothing to do with the TARP per se. Most of the discussion of "permission" that I have seen is concerned with whether the Obama Administration will "allow" recipients to repay the TARP early. My point is that the terms of the investment were set out from the beginning. And since (a) the Fed is not part of the Obama Administration, and (b) they will make any such determination based on regulatory capital requirements, my point stands.
- Nemo
C&C, you're beginning to sound like ipodius.
Any NY bank that fails the stress test should be forced to move its headquarters to Jersey City if they can't get enough new capital in a year.
Since they had a 4 month quarter, does that mean they will have a 2 month quarter to make up for it?
lawyerliz
If I were to have my moniker saying "Hedging makes one free" it wouldn't have the same meaning, so i'll just leave it as is.
You could leave the word Arbitrage in; I won't mind.
lawyerliz
According to Bloomberg, GS lost $2.15/share in December, reporting that as a lone month. Add in the first quarter, and they made $1.20/share over the last four months. Funny how it worked out that way.
They already had a 1 month quarter.
"Little chickens, big as your hand, damndest thing I ever saw."
OT: If this whole 'thing' is indeed rooted in fraud, a question would be: how do rank and file law enforcement see it unfolding? What is the opinion of the FBI agents and attorney's generals, the people working in state capitols, the Andrew Cuomos of the world, what are they seeing and, perhaps more importantly, feeling?
I bet a lot of them have kids.
Does anybody know anything about this, even by anecdote?
We need a whole bunch of perp walks-festooned in $5k Italian suits, stat.
NPR had this thing about the little people being able to buy a pieces of the toxic assets. Wouldn't be fair for the pension funds to get all the profits!!
Actually, I'd be willing to buy in a teensy bit of money for the heck of it. But I'd want to know the performance of the toxic asset in detail, how it was paying off etc, so I could guesstimate its value. . . .opps, can't have that, can we?
lawyerliz
I thought I read it was something like 12.8B?
Dont be against the consumer or GS. (and i think that consumer part no longer holds true!)
................
Michael's exhortation of the 7th amendment makes better sense each day. Imagine and Ordinary Joe who shoots his banker and the jury returns a verdict of "self-defense".
If I were to have my moniker saying "Hedging makes one free" it wouldn't have the same meaning, so i'll just leave it as is.
I dont get what was offensive about it... Then again I miss lots on here!
Does anyone here actually look at the earnings releases or just carp on endlessly ? I mean, I enjoy some of the comments here, but a lot of it is just drivel "GS is evil, etc"
Look at the actual earnings to see what a puff piece the market, as a reflection of the economy, has become. It has become all about the headline number, the sound bite, no substance at all.
-They changed their quarter from Dec - Feb to Jan - March. Since December was left out there all alone, they dumped all the losses into it. Losses for December were $1BB, so the four months total were about in line with estimates.
-Every segment had decreasing revenues, except FICC, which is where all the toxic assets are housed. Think those weren't marked up on the trading books now that FASB allows it?
- FICC is also where the AIG money would have been funneled through.
- They had a small increase in the debt underwriting subsegment, no doubt from offering their own debt.
Bottom line is, their release shows a company in decline, net of taxpayer money and one-time accounting changes. Even the great GS has a shrinking company as the debt bubble decreases.
A true look at their earnings shows the economy is shrinking fast - advisory fees dropping due to less activity, asset management fees dropping due to market losses, equity activity dropping again due to a stressed equity market, further writedowns of real estate.
Nades,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbeit_macht_frei
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 5:13pm.
"St. Petersburg, FL PD slicing up homeless peoples' tents?
This sure ticks me off."
BSR, that's about a couple of years old. We have a nice park for the tent people now.
The real problem is that they migrate here every winter. I'm talking about the perpetual homeless, not the suddenly homeless. We're awash in them - they come from all over the eastern half of the country.
nades, the entrances to concentration camps at Bergen-Belsen and elsewhere were inscribed Arbeit Macht Frei. Entirely cruel, as work could not be said to have led to freedom there.
AMF, now you're being stubborn and ANTI-SEMITIC.
DCRogers wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 5:22pm.
"AMF, the joke *is* funny, but wears on repetition...."
+1 I think you nailed it.
I thought it was funny for a millisecond, until I remembered the cast iron words above the entrance to a death camp.
lawyerliz
popeye and burnside, thanks. i did a quick google and all i read was the translation... totally missed the understanding by a mile... 
Can anyone comment about the spike in interest rate VaR that GS reported? I understand that their risk exposure to interest rates went way up, but why is that? What are the likely explanations for this? Is GS betting the farm that the government will be successful driving yields down by purchasing treasuries/agency debt? I guess it isn't a bad bet, because if they're wrong it will be the end of our financial system. But perhaps the government should have included interest rates in the stress test?
Buying "legacy" (hahaha) assets:
Little people + pension funds = doubling down. No?
Arbeit Macht Frei was a deeply cynical Nazi joke. Doublespeak, if you will. The Jews got freedom alright -- the freedom of death.
Marketwatch ticker:
5:58 p.m. : Moody's downgrades Ambac on risk, increased loss estimates
This new is so last year, right? But how are Ambac and MBIA still alive? Are they being conveniently ignored so that financials can pretend their losses are insured?
Countless millions of lives will be lost in this perfect financial maelstrom, all on account of hedging.
Looks like Mark to Madeoff works! I used the accounting procedure the other day and I am worth many more millions!
Arbitrage, prolly not actually. After literally years of starvation etc, the Black Plague was able to do its thing.
We are just gonna get poorer.
I suppose people in really poor countries might get dead, but they deserve their own catchphrase, at least.
You goofed. Just like people who hung on all the way down on the stock mkt.
So admit it and get yourself a slightly different handled.
lawyerliz
Goldman also declared a $0.35/share dividend. Money is fungible, so no telling where the resources are coming from.
Can I be rich too, Lobbyist Ben?
lawyerliz
I suppose none of the divy will go to the taxpayers.
lawyerliz
Smell of Profits on this spring like day....... cocktails anybody?
Sure just how rich do you want to be? Simple, just do some creative math that will come out to what you want. I decided that my real estate should be worth what CA peaked at in 2006. Now I am worth 5 times more then the other day!
That's not profits you smell, that's me, fartin' through silk, babeeee.....
Ah, well, off to dine.
lawyerliz
LawyerLiz: I assume it's squirrel tonight...Need a good recipe?
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We're witnessing one of the greatest non-violent crime sprees in history. - ac
- don't kid yourself. The violence is being wreaked upon countless millions who are suffering mightily due to the excesses of the financial industry.
A little help with the ref???
"http://goldmansachs666.com/"
LOL.
- Emma Anne -
If I were to have my moniker saying "Hedging makes one free" it wouldn't have the same meaning, so i'll just leave it as is.
http://www.rudyfoto.com/hol/sac-arbeit.html
- you, sir, (and I use the term loosely) are an insensitive boor.
A little help with the ref???
- any daily newspaper.
I will join the group of those politely asking 'Arbitrage' to change your handle.
The pun was funny in a dark-humor sort of way the first reading, but it wears thin quickly.
And no sense punching a very sensitive button for those on this board who lost family (or even were) in the concentration camps. Arbeit did not macht frei those people, it macht todt, (pardon my mangled Deutsch) as they were literally worked to death.
How about "Arbitriage" or some other play?
JMO...
Countless millions of lives will be lost in this perfect financial maelstrom, all on account of hedging.
If the third world is included in the above, forward looking statement, I'm inclined to agree.
Stress Tests: Who Will Take the Fall?
To view our impartial assessment, please visit:
LOL, great comment. I'm going to have to borrow this one.
Thank God our trillions in taxes are working their magic.
Thank you taxpayers - somehow Goldman made more last Q during the height of the Lehman implosion than a year ago when the situation was far less dire - only in corporate socialism land
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/04/goldman-sachs-gs-pre-announces-1...
>I scratch my head at this continuing rally, and the meme that commodity inflation is a given in the near future.
Keep scratching. What you can't understand is your own problem. I guess you haven't made any money on FCX, eh?
Why is it so hard for some people to understand that copper is real. And money has become pure fiction. It 's a lot less about demand for copper than the unlimited supply of money being created out of thin air, faster than anybody ever imagined and without any end in sight.
IF GS stock goes any higher, then you better believe Rep. Elijah Cummings will be asking why we (taxpayers) had to make GS whole on the AIG counterparty payments? The assumption by Congress will be, clearly GS did not need the money and should have just gone to bankruptcy court where it could get pennies on the dollar for its counterparty exposure. Congress will not let this thing go higher. Just Watch. And what good does paying TARP back do do when the Taxpayer is already insuring the cost of their new debt through the FDIC?
Black Star Ranch-
I share your outrage. Lawyerliz has commented about the poor/homeless becoming invisible. So true.
I am not sure what the legal standing is to destroy private property when it is on public property. I am sure they passed an ordinance that is unconstitutional but won't be challenged. The Ghost of Tom Joad haunts us to this day.
So they want to issue stock to get money and repay TARP. Big, big, surprise!
To paraphase Winston C. (not Winston S.)
" Nothing so clarifies a managements mind as the prospect that government may cap THEIR compensation some morning."
You have to also look at the one month number they reported to get on a cal. year reporting basis. In December they reported a loss of over $2.00 per share.
interested wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 2:15pm.
* * * *
Actually, your statement is nonsense. The company's primary federal regulator (in this case, the Fed) must approve any capital redemption, for tarp or any other equity security. It's the law.
You are completely GS has special presidential dispensation to break any law they want.
There is no lack of positive earning this season. No matter how you look at this, there is no "suckers rally". This is the real deal...
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/04/no-basis-for-earnings-fear.html
Are you afraid? Why?!
So they plan to repay the TARP; great. Now will they buy back all of the FDIC-insured debt they have issued?
- Nemo