hm
FIRST!
p.s. duck & cover
Evening.........stats show 10-named (member) users, 20-"users", and 142-"guests". How does one achieve each of those "stati" and still "be here"??
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
hm
FIRST!
p.s. duck & cover
I have been holding my breath for the past 18 months.
- Nemo
I have about a dozen friends and family that have lost their jobs in the past year, and just 3 have found jobs since then.
That's the real story about underemployment~
It's all over except for the shouting.
Evening.........stats show 10-named (member) users, 20-"users", and 142-"guests". How does one achieve each of those "stati" and still "be here"??
- - - - -
Black Ranch
CR sounding somewhat pessimistic.. interesting.. *makes note*
Uh.... does that also apply to deleveraging balance sheet recessions, too?
And even if the recession ended..... what happens next? Recovery? Somehow I doubt anyone would call it that, even if GDP went positive.
And about the stock markets... they most certainly didnt bottom 6 months before the end of the 2001 recession. So what happened there? Everyone today in the stock market seems excited about a recovery..... Somebody forget to send a memo?
Seems like conventional wisdom is gradually eroding after each recession.
A Goldman Sachs economist says ...
That could be the topic of many posts.
Why this will not be a normal cyclical recovery
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d89a930-220d-11de-8380-00144feabdc0.html
"Workers ages 45 and over form a disproportionate share of the hard-luck recession category, the long-term unemployed - those who have been out of work for six months or longer, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. "
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/us/13age.html?ref=todayspaper
Well at least the over 45 have their largely paid for homes, 401k's and large savings to fall back on. Also a great time to use those years of expertise to start their own businesses. /snark
Much more tragedy to play out before this is over.
Oh, never mind.
NorkaWest
"
New thread open for business.
NorkaWest
"
Did you mean to post in the last thread?
"Why this will not be a normal cyclical recovery"
From the FT article: "much more federal capital for the banking system "
I'll say it again, with banks announcing record profits and all of them supposedly passing the stress test, I just don't see how the public doesn't go postal if they try to give more bailout money to the banks.
How can anyone expect claims to go anywhere but up with the pending automaker bankruptcies???
It's not just the autoworkers themselves, it's the suppliers, dealerships, etc.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
" at least the over 45 have their largely paid for homes, 401k's and large savings to fall back on"
-------------
Interesting theory but I'm not sure how true it is. Those "paid-for homes" were trade-ups from 2005 with an additional $200K of debt, the 401Ks are gutted and those "large savings" were in the stock market and hedge funds. I was chatting with a recently divorced woman about my age. her ex-husband has been out of work since 2003 and the DotCom Crash.
Now, admittedly he choose that but still, I know from the past few years that the "upward mobility" ladder has been moved to India. I have zero career path at this point which means I'm stuck as a stock developer working alongside 30-years and graduates or the quit the industry and start something new. Either way, I'll probably never reach my peak earnings of 2001 again.
"...Goldman Sachs economist Seamus Smyth estimated a significant decline as:
Roughly speaking, a 20,000 decline in the 4-week moving average corresponds to a 50% probability that the peak has already been reached, and a 40,000 improvement to a 90% probability."
Why am I not filled with overwhelming confidence at this forecast?
Uh.... does that also apply to deleveraging balance sheet recessions, too?
It doesn't. Non-public debt to gdp ratio like 2.5 times that of '82. Also, continued claims rate significantly higher.
I have been saying that for some time, with the exact same example.. maybe my postings are starting to influence more well known bloggers.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
WASHINGTON'S BLOG (http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/04/high-priests-of-deception....)
The High Priests of Deception
SUNDAY, APRIL 12, 2009
The Church lost a lot of its power during the plague.
The clergy not only failed to stop the pandemic, but they tried to suppress its severity. In other words, many people saw that the clergy were both impotent and dishonest. So people lost faith in the medieval Church.
Bernanke, Geithner and Summers are the high priests of high-leverage speculative finance.
They pretend that they can stop the worldwide depression with their oracular powers, and that the financial plague is not that bad
I'm also curious about the states' infrastructure in regards to their ability to handle initial/continued claims. I know the "challenges" with the system when the Mrs. applied (via phone in our state) and the dated follow-up procedures required with every claim. I can see many larger states just not able to handle an immense increased flow, thereby keeping the initial claims from rising as rapidly as "flow required".
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Black Ranch
mark - The public should have gone postal a long time ago.
Countrywide, AIG, ML, Bear Stearns... those alone should have been more than enough.
I don't think anything can get them riled up anymore.
Do these models consider second-order effects? Even after unemployment peaks (and RRE has bottomed), debt unwinding, increased savings & rising health-care costs etc. will continue to be a drag on consumer spending which is 3/4th of the gross GDP => we may be looking at an elongated trough rathe than a quick upturn for the economy.
In any case, as has been said here before, RRE bottom will be the necessary trigger to begin damping the decline in activity.
Broward Horne,
It is sad to hear that, but your job and livelihood were destroyed by the same people/ mentality that most white middle- and working- class people worshiped for the past 30- odd years.
"Non-public debt to gdp ratio"
---------
I love this measure of "theoretical ability to pay back" instead of "debt to actual revenue".
Very amusing. 
With respect, this is not a cyclical recesion. This is a deep rooted fundemental change in business ops. Businesses will react accordingly. If you are 45+ expect to be unemployed 26+ months. If you are entering the work force from University, expect short term contract work. Plug and play labor is here. A discretionary input.
Short answer- NO.
Slightly longer answer- Nobody wants to look in pandora's box
//Do these models consider second-order effects? Even after unemployment peaks (and RRE has bottomed), debt unwinding, increased savings & rising health-care costs etc. will continue to be a drag on consumer spending which is 3/4th of the gross GDP => we may be looking at an elongated trough rathe than a quick upturn for the economy.
//
Interesting Times,
Nah, the public has to really feel some severe pain before they'll rise to the occasion. But when that time comes, watch out!
p.s.: I say that knowing full well "the public" means a sizable boisterous minority. The vast majority rarely ever gets that agitated anywhere.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
I don't think the world can hold for your scenario to come true.. things will either collapse or improve by then..
//With respect, this is not a cyclical recesion. This is a deep rooted fundemental change in business ops. Businesses will react accordingly. If you are 45+ expect to be unemployed 26+ months. If you are entering the work force from University, expect short term contract work. Plug and play labor is here. A discretionary input.//
Broward Horne,
Ditto for me. In '03 I made a great salary and had a large pot of money invested from 20+ years of work.
Today ... well, I've still got my pride--what's left of it.
" your job and livelihood were destroyed by the same people/ mentality"
-----------
The most annoying part of it is the lie.
The lie that it's possible to recover, to work hard, to regain position.
That's a lie promoted by society at large to cover conscience, avoid recognition of one's own vulnerability and to suck a few more years of hard work out of a corpse.
The young guys running around with their hair on fire haven't figured it out yet, just like I didn't until 2006.
Louis XVI and Nicholas II thought that too..
People do not rise up until order collapses.
//Countrywide, AIG, ML, Bear Stearns... those alone should have been more than enough.
I don't think anything can get them riled up anymore.///
And how do we define the "end of the recession"?
Strictly by the NBER? Remember there was no consensus on how the NBER defined the start of a recession.
Much more importantly, what about the job crisis versus the narrow definition of U3? Heck, as people exhaust their claims, they will fall off the rolls...will such roll-offs be counted as a 'recovery stat'?
Will the crack-like volatility on the Dow/S&P, or a mini-run be counted as a recovery?
It's ludicrous to completely ignore all the unique dynamics in todays economy, particularly the debt deleveraging and the near-permanent destruction of FIRE occupations that depend on expansive growth of household debt. To ignore those fundamentals that were not present in any of the prior 5 recessions...or most recessions of the past 60 years...and say that all recessions - and recoveries - are the same should warrant hitting the 'ignore' button in blogdom readership.
TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 6:48pm.
How can anyone expect claims to go anywhere but up with the pending automaker bankruptcies???
It's not just the autoworkers themselves, it's the suppliers, dealerships, etc.
I agree there is more to come. If GM does a clean and proper BK there will be lots of unemployed including those who lose their full pensions and the Medical system lay offs will grow. Then the suppliers, maybe half the dealers, steel workers, etc. This feel good I doubt will last.
Very cheery outlook in that FT article...but I do believe job growth will be very slow, and that means it will take longer to repair balance sheets and that will feedback in slower job growth. Ugh. Thanks for the link though.
Barley (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 6:53pm.
With respect, this is not a cyclical recesion. This is a deep rooted fundemental change in business ops. Businesses will react accordingly. If you are 45+ expect to be unemployed 26+ months. If you are entering the work force from University, expect short term contract work. Plug and play labor is here. A discretionary input.
~~~~
Fully 1/3rd of the Japanese work force is temporary ...
We're going Japanese ...
The New Economy:
~ Full employment at 10% official unemployment, underemployment and discouraged at over 20% ...
~ GDP growth stagnant or 1% over a decade ...
~ Trillion dollar budget deficits forever necessitating severe cuts in social programs ...
From the last thread, if you regularly hit up Urasawa, Mr. McDuck, then you are no scrooge.
Once this recession ends it will be time for the next one to start.......just another one of many from now until the end.
"I don't think anything can get them riled up anymore."
there is a certain critical point. At that critical point, it will be too expensive in terms of political capital to diverge & ignore public outcry. At that point a political connection to the finance industry will become too much of a liability.
My bet is on the next, AIG conference call
It is the Arrogance that got banks (IB) into this mess. It will be the same arrogance that will kill dinosaurs.
p.s. time to practice DUCK & COVER techniques.
where's the inflation?
Where's the double digit rates on money?
What has my idiot sockpuppet uttered?
Wheres the 25k house I'm gonna live in?
Whose gonna rent my 150k house?
Where's my margaritta on the rocks no salt?
"This is a deep rooted fundamental change in business ops."
+10
As much known and unknown ammo as has been thrown into the minimally ebbing flame, there is much more still to explode. We're no where near the top of the first incline of this coaster.
Guys 45+ have 25-30yo's to battle with lessening reward - many are holding out. Many more ego hold-outs than 45+ age women.
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Black Ranch
Black Star Ranch, the list of online users is just the top ten most recent. I could show more, but don't want to tax the server too much.
BTW, anyone else notice things getting snappier here? I've implemented the first phase of Operation Flying Pig, and it did very well with the lunch crowd (400 users).
Yes, that is very true. People were misled into believing stuff that was rationally suspect, but many took the bait as they thought they could gain over the person next to them.
I remember telling people that this was irrational and fraudulent, but they all wanted to believe in it so badly.
The sad part is that many people would prefer to believe an ivy league educated conman who was full of s**t, rather than rationally examine the basis of the argument. I feel no sympathy for the vast majority of people.. these idiots wanted to win and fly past a brown guy who said stuff they did not like.. so how did that work out?
Now the unwashed masses have to face reality.
//The most annoying part of it is the lie.//
The unemployed of the 1930's rode the rails, but there aren't too many trains nowadays, and hitchhiking is definitely frowned upon, so how does the downwardly mobile get around, this depression?
OT: Scamming big business: Some employers are classifying, for COBRA eligibility purposes, let-go workers as "Reduction in Hours" rather than "Involuntary Termination." They are ineligible for the 65% subsidy, when classified as "Reduction in Hours." Yes, even a reduction to zero hours may be classified that way. What may be driving it is that the employer has to pay the 65%, then gets a tax credit against the next quarter. From the employer's point of view, I can understand trying to avoid the subsidy, because it amounts to an interest free loan for as long as three months. But ... .
"plug and play labor is here."
---------
This will only work for a short period of time at the current rates of debt accumulation.
Feds have to be close to systemic failure.
Since I ditched my house and wife, I've got far more discretionary income and could theoretically retire if I make 75% of my peak earnings over the next ten years while living for free with my parents (and don't get married again!) I don't expect this current debacle to last, though. I'd expect a good chunk of those paper savings to get vaporized again.
Lucifer, ur right.
Debt Unwind and Deleveraging have dragged us into not a recession or depression, but into a Structural Economic Transformation.
Why/how?
Because we are still trying to run a huge 300+ million person $13 Trillion GDP nation on a GDP model that is 70% driven by consumer spending even after the consumer has been strangled by debt (which is still unwinding) and HH debt was 350% of GDP in 2007.
This particular GDP model has reached its effectiove lifespan and is expiring.
Most of not all HH debt-fueled models are nearing the end of their lifespans and are fueling deleveraging; these lifespans that were unknown to us when the last structural economic transformation ended in 1982 (1973-19820 and ushered the US into a service economy world of knowledge jobs, cubicle culture, minimal manufacturing base and the slow rise of debt/credit to make household budgets meet in a world where global forces stymie wage growth.
We have no replacement GDP model.
We cant re-animate the dying flesh of the GDP model 70% driven by consumer spending.
HH have not reduced their debt levels by even 10%.
Talk of a recovery is simply embarressing.
But the ivy leaguer conmen say otherwise.. keep listening to the priests of our secular religion.
//It's ludicrous to completely ignore all the unique dynamics in todays economy, particularly the debt deleveraging and the near-permanent destruction of FIRE occupations that depend on expansive growth of household debt. To ignore those fundamentals that were not present in any of the prior 5 recessions...or most recessions of the past 60 years...and say that all recessions - and recoveries - are the same should warrant hitting the 'ignore' button in blogdom readership.//
Have handgun, will travel.
//The unemployed of the 1930's rode the rails, but there aren't too many trains nowadays, and hitchhiking is definitely frowned upon, so how does the downwardly mobile get around, this depression?//
You learnt through experience what I gleaned through observation.
// (and don't get married again!)//
Somali pirates are promising revenge...
Why can't we just keep bombing them at the sea? The act of aggression is obvious, civilian casualties are minimal.
Lucifer,
If you don't mind me playing the devil's advocate...
How does one discern the good guys from the bad guys, if everybody has handguns?
Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 7:04pm.
The unemployed of the 1930's rode the rails, but there aren't too many trains nowadays, and hitchhiking is definitely frowned upon, so how does the downwardly mobile get around, this depression?
~~~~
And the country was much more rural ...
....space for back yard gardens for food, room for unemployed relatives and much more seasonal work ...
That is correct.. the PTB have no alternative.
Having said that, reducing consumption is the surest path towards hell. We have to create a newer system.. and it won't be easy.
//We have no replacement GDP model.
We cant re-animate the dying flesh of the GDP model 70% driven by consumer spending.
HH have not reduced their debt levels by even 10%.
Talk of a recovery is simply embarressing.//
Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 9:50pm.
I'm also curious about the states' infrastructure in regards to their ability to handle initial/continued claims.
hahahaha - I've been waiting on hold to speak w/ some states for more than 45 minutes. When I finally get a live human being, most are frazzled, overworked & have no problem telling you how busy it is.
Slightly O/T but worth noting:
I have recieved notices from both MO & MI that the state unemployment fund is insolvent and they are borrowing from the Fed. They send these notices to companies b/c if the state is unable to pay back a sizeable portion of this 'borrowed' money, corporations get to pay an additional .3% in FUTA.
I read MI has already had to borrow in excess of 1B to cover their ui fund & have been told to start accruing for the difference.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
"many are holding out."
------
I am.
I've had enough knifes in my back over the past five years.
Didn't get anywhere near enough money for them.
Said Comrade de Chaos:
At that point a political connection to the finance industry will become too much of a liability.
The plebes did not rise up in the face of prima notcu. I don't think the next AIG conference call is going to set off a revolution. 90% of Americans don't even know what AIG is.
There are no good guys or bad guys.. People make that mistake all the time.
For example.. most americans are brainwashed into believing that the police are a force of good. Why don't you compare the actions and methods of your average US police department to the 'specia'l police forces that kept order in jewish ghettos under nazi control. There are far more similarities than most americans would like to accept.. though the nazis had snappier uniforms.
//How does one discern the good guys from the bad guys, if everybody has handguns?//
From Boxcar to Keyboard: Comparing Technological Approaches To Weathering A Depression
What happens when the birth/death model numbers have to be revised downward?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
I have seen far more hubris in people educated in certain institutions.
//So it is not about education, it is all about human character.//
Will we have something like Italy's Red Brigades here?
The recession in the early nineties & the S&L bailout steeled my resolve, the 2K recession is when we made the change. Many more are making the change now. I see it here. We've had a half dozen new people weekly just "stop by" asking about "newbie stuff" (new gardens, raising cows, chickens, goats, making butter, cheese, etc.). Many more are taking seriously the networking and bartering requirements of neighbors. Seems a bit more serious now.
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Black Ranch
The french peasants did not rise up until they semi-starved for a few years, and the financial system collapsed. Even after that it took more than a year before the guillotines got busy.
//The plebes did not rise up in the face of prima notcu. I don't think the next AIG conference call is going to set off a revolution. 90% of Americans don't even know what AIG is.//
Shhh!!! You might scare the masses.
//What happens when the birth/death model numbers have to be revised downward?//
For anyone interested in how your elected officials for-sale-or-rent have advanced the Wall Street-Washington circle jerk, here's a link to a new article in May's Atlantic Monthly:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
This was written by Harvard's Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the IMF.
A good read & pretty damning stuff.
carping is fine but the fleecing being executed by Goldman this evening is the real story and it should remain so. They of course will not disclose their hedges but the investigator looking ointo the TARP assets should immediatly lanch an inquiry into ow they money paid to GS via AIG was recorded and accounted for. This is like spitting in taxpayers eyes. They take a huge gain, pay themselves 50% of it and then use it to deceptivily riase capital - and who will buy this dog at a premium to BVPS - j6P via their 401K stocks for the long term - End of Empire
They may be ramping up Afganistan to keep a lot of unemployed sharpshooters and explosives experts off the street.
How does one discern the good guys from the bad guys, if everybody has handguns?
If you're still alive and haven't got one pointed at you, he's a good guy.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
reptillian (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 10:19pm.
They may be ramping up Afganistan to keep a lot of unemployed sharpshooters and explosives experts off the street
That still leaves us will all those unemployed sushi chefs ....
There are many more than they can absorb.
//They may be ramping up Afganistan to keep a lot of unemployed sharpshooters and explosives experts off the street//
Lucifer,
I wasn't talkin' 'bout the coppers, I was thinking more along the lines of J6P.
How would you know who was whom?
Not a whole lot different than our foray in Iraq, where we had no idea who the good guys and bad guys were, once we defeated their organized military and everybody was dressed in civies.
I'd like to ask our board members from Oregon for some advice. I have a family member who is moving to the Salem area to go to school and learn how to make wine. She has experience as a waitress and as a loan officer. Any recommendations on where she should look for jobs?
Thank you, and sorry for going off topic and looping back to a previous thread.
It will be much worser than iraq.. there the guys you shot at looked different.. here... you get the point.
That is the situation which the PTB have to avoid, as it may be very hard to reverse.
//Not a whole lot different than our foray in Iraq, where we had no idea who the good guys and bad guys were, once we defeated their organized military and everybody was dressed in civies.//
not regularly....once in a while. makes you appreciate the dedication Japanese people have to their crafts.
How does she look? Prostitution is not such a bad idea.. new talent is always welcome.
//Any recommendations on where she should look for jobs?//
What does it mean if the 4 week moving average moves up to 800,000? Pitchfork and torches???
Lucifer,
Would help if you added a little /snark or maybe a winking emoticon when you say something like that!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
No.. the pitchforks will come out after many people stop getting paychecks and pensions.
//What does it mean if the 4 week moving average moves up to 800,000? Pitchfork and torches???//
Prostitution is a very good profession, as long as the woman is below a certain age and has a good attitude. I am serious..
//Would help if you added a little /snark or maybe a winking emoticon when you say something like that!//
"The plebes did not rise up in the face of prima notcu. I don't think the next AIG conference call is going to set off a revolution. 90% of Americans don't even know what AIG is."
Human reaction is similar to economy, both could be considered chaotic systems. Each individual bailout might be insignificant. The huge number of bailouts with null results might produce quite a chain reaction. I am not talking about "system" change or mass revolt. I am talking about pressure on politicians that will force them to realize that the next move might be as well a career ending one.
Complex systems such a human society, political or economic process and many others don't always show a pattern in behavior. Often, there are plenty invisible changes that could grow exponentially and break the pattern. It's mostly us, humans that envision patterns where there are none present. It has to do with our desire to eliminate uncertainty.
o,s, Do I sound like Dr. StrangeLove yet? Let me get a beer, & I surely will.
Having enough handguns to supply every J6P in the land with a six shooter, is in a small way similar to unstable countries acquiring nuclear weapons, which tended to be more of a deterrent when just in the hands of a few,
I agree and have been saying that for some time.
//Complex systems such a human society, political or economic process and many others don't always show a patter behavior. Often, there are plenty invisible changes that could grow exponentially and break the pattern. It's mostly us, humans that envision patterns where there are none present. It has to do with our desire to eliminate uncertainty.//
When the number of variables is large, it is tempting to fall back on simplicity. But statistical models like this are so unreliable that if it does not hold true this time, there are dozens of "explanations" waiting in the wing.
Lucifer,
You're overlooking one important fact: pitchforks & torches won't come out en masse until people's cable/satellite TV gets cut.
IMHO every law abiding citizen possessing and knowing how to use a firearm would be conducive to a much more honest and responsive government.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
This was written by Harvard's Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the IMF.
............VERY good article.
Any recommendations on where she should look for jobs?
............ROFLOL.........sorry............not today. Reminds me of my youngest daughter (24) - she's thinking about quitting her job. I told her to start thinking about moving out here then and learning to milk "MilkShake" twice a day and then get used to walking. She asked, why? I told her if she quits her job, it'll be the last one she gets for a while and after her SUV is repo'ed, she'll be walking.
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Black Ranch
Moody's downgraded Ambac to junk. Just last year everyone was debating whether Ambac could actually lose its AAA ratings.
Moody's says its loss estimates on Alt-A mortgages have increased significantly.
A few unpaid bills away.
//You're overlooking one important fact: pitchforks & torches won't come out en masse until people's cable/satellite TV gets cut.//
Hay did you here BO named his new dog BO?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
What sort of complexity did our 1931 counterparts have to deal with in their lives, compared to our present predicament?
It's night and day, ain't it?
Moody, S&P 500 and Fitch should downgrade themselves!
GGP bondholders are getting their pitchforks in order, finally...
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1339209720090414?rpc=44
Comrade de Chaos,
You sound exactly like Nassim Taleb.
Yep.. and I have been saying that for some time now.
//What sort of complexity did our 1931 counterparts have to deal with in their lives, compared to our present predicament?
It's night and day, ain't it?//
"Prostitution is a very good profession, as long as the woman.........."
........is not your daughter. Have a cup of coffee, Lucipher
- - - - -
Black Ranch
The skin trade seems on the up and up, compared to the Wall Streeters skimming money off of us
I could care less.. my views on women, even those related to me, are not exactly positive.
//Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 8:37pm.
"Prostitution is a very good profession, as long as the woman.........."
........is not your daughter. Have a cup of coffee, Lucipher//
Escorts are more honest than any wallstreeter and your wife/ significant other. There are no 'gotcha' charges..
//The skin trade seems on the up and up, compared to the Wall Streeters skimming money off of us//
I could care less.. my views on women, even those related to me, are not exactly positive.
That explains a lot!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Bondgirl -
I'm trying to remember now why it was so important last year whether ABK was or wasn't downgraded. They don't have to post collateral for their CDS's, so why did we care?
I am a realist..
//That explains a lot!//
Hey Ken, I noticed it was a lot snappier today. Maybe pigs will fly after all...
A green shoots banker anecdote in SoCal...
My neighbor writes mortgages for Wells in SoCal. He said he is greater than normal biz lately, but most of it is <500k. He said most appraisals are coming in lower than owners expect, but it is not slowing his business.
He said Wells will also roll out their >417k confirming loans at the end of May after reviewing all the Fannie/Freddie paperwork.
I am fairly pessimistic, but his biz seems to be honestly improving. Maybe it is green shoots time after all?
It mattered an awful lot to municipal borrowers and investors, especially those with variable rate debt.
I'm looking for the video of Rick Santelli vs. Steve Leisman fight today on CNBC. It was great live. Anybody know where I can find it?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Sometimes it blows my mind that this was set off by mortgages.
A woman saying that she feels guilty.. Liar!!
//Brides Kiss Dream Weddings Goodbye as Vendors Shut (Update1)
By Alexis Leondis and Elizabeth Hester
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Connie Banks was planning a "bride's dream" at Tuscany of Garden Oaks, a Houston banquet hall with ceilings painted to resemble the Sistine Chapel. Then the hall's owner filed for bankruptcy.
Banks, whose family paid $22,000 for the space and catering, was suddenly left with no place to put the 250 people on her wedding list.
"I still feel guilty my parents lost all that money," said Banks, a 24-year-old teacher who found a new venue at the additional cost of having to change the date to a Friday from a Saturday this June. "I also feel guilty guests will have to take more time off from work to attend a Friday wedding."//
The real issue is jobs.. everything else is secondary..
//I am fairly pessimistic, but his biz seems to be honestly improving. Maybe it is green shoots time after all?//
Houston is a hellwhole cleverly disguised as flat wasteland. It's probably better that Connie will get the chance to be married somewhere else.
I am fairly pessimistic, but his biz seems to be honestly improving. Maybe it is green shoots time after all?
Low hanging fruit.
please kick your neighbor's dog for me. thanks much.
Old economy meal: Filet Mignon with all the trimmings
New economy meal: Green shoots
Low hanging fruit.
Knife-catchers always think they're Ahead of the Curve. 
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
That is what Pol-Pot preached
//New economy meal: Green shoots//
NEW POST at Calculated Risk.
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David Buckner faints,passes out on Glen Beck live today while discussing toxic assets.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/13/david-bucker-faints-passe_n_186...
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Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Note the all important /snark at the end of the B.H. post.
BTW I saw my peak earning in the late 90s, with very nice earnings up until 2002. I invented some stuff and sold it to clients.
By 2005, I was 45 and 'old.' Did a career change, some oppts but nothing like before. Now unemployed, but for a variety slimely employer tactics, don't get UI. Paying a little over 1k for COBRA health benefits... ugh.
Thank god I don't have debt or a huge mortgage. On the other hand, little savings left. low six figures... won't last me until Medicare.
Does this make any sense?:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-recalling-15M-vehicles-apf-14915114.html
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- General Motors Corp. is recalling 1.5 million vehicles because of potential engine fires. GM says there have been no reports of any fires or injuries.
Some of the recalled vehicles are no longer in production. The recall includes the 1998-1999 Oldsmobile Intrigue, the 1997-2003 Pontiac Grand Prix, 1997-2003 Buick Regal, and the 1998-2003 Chevrolet Lumina, Monte Carlo and Impala.
No wonder they're going down the tube ....
Somebody here made an observation weeks ago that I never considered and that was the rise of Just-in-time inventory management. It's going to be a looooooong situation.
OT, what exactly is Operation Flying Pig?
It's nice to see the some of the MIA returning to the field.
homedad43
If you are 45+ expect to be unemployed 26+ months.
Tent city, here we come.
KenC:
how is the adaption of CRCompanion to this new commenting system coming along?
Also, is your new system scalable enough, flexible enough, and simple enough that it could be marketed to other bloggers? It could be advertised as being "CR Battle Tested".
NorkaWest
Michael (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 10:59pm.
David Buckner faints,passes out on Glen Beck live today while discussing toxic assets.
He didn't faint, he fell asleep from boredom. Actually being there is worse than watching Glenn Beck on TV.
Based on the model, "if there's no further rise, we're looking at a trough coming in April or May,"
Okay, maybe June. Or no, July. Wait a minute. August. Yes, August. No? Not August? How about September? October? Do I hear a ...
Oh whatever.
Lucifer, your prostitution comments are over the line! Enough already!!! There is no need to insult newcomers on this Blog.
homedad43 (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 8:01pm.
Somebody here made an observation weeks ago that I never considered and that was the rise of Just-in-time inventory management.
Doesn't "Just-in-Time" stand for "Spot-Shortages" when the supply chain has hick-ups (logistical or financial) and no one has buffer stocks of spare inventory.
NorkaWest
"What sort of complexity did our 1931 counterparts have to deal with in their lives"
There were plenty of those: investment bubble, consumer goods supply side bubble (overproduction) and my favorite - bank runs.
The golden rule of a bank run (a good Game Theory application - it nails it; came alone about 10 years later) : Whoever runs first, wins!
p.s. There is something as important as jobs - efficiency in producing goods (any goods; financial industry is extremely inefficient right now; so we ve got to kill us some dinos.)
Lucifer,
That woman ought to feel guilty--a big wedding is a waste of money and apparently adds little, if anything, to a successful marriage. Twenty-four is too young to marry, anyway.
Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 10:09pm.
How does one discern the good guys from the bad guys, if everybody has handguns?
Bad guys don't use holsters is a good general rule.
CdC:
Aside from a car, radio, refrigerator, fan and a few other niceties, our counterparts of 1931 lived very simple lives, in comparison to us.
"In any case, as has been said here before, RRE bottom will be the necessary trigger to begin damping the decline in activity. "
the middle class will be vanished by the time RRE bottoms.
Down here in Joe's land, people are starting to not give a sh!t. Boss wants the job done when? Screw that! Lose my job? So what. Take the damn house. It's Friday, we are going out to eat on the card.
Not me. My job is winding down, I'm hitting the bricks for another one. No job, oh well. Truck's paid off, and I have a huge credit card limit to buy pellet guns, sling shots, camping gear, and heavy defensive weapons. The way I see it, the cities will go down first and I plan to be silent but deadly on my way to hillbilly land.
The green shoots are most likely weeds. Yes a sharp decline in initial claims looks like a good indicator, along with a turnaround in new home sales. Had a lil bit of the later last month but i would want to see that continue for at leat another few months before declaring victory. At this point all one can say is that the second derivative is improving. We are gettiing weaker at a decelerating rate. Says nothing about the strength of the upturn when it eventually comes. My sense is that this is going to be a very wide valley, and we have not yet reached the valley floor, its just that we are walking down the slope rather than rappelling down.
Aside from a car, radio, refrigerator, fan and a few other niceties, our counterparts of 1931 lived very simple lives, in comparison to us.
You got that right. My mother's parents had a luncheonette (Greeks). They survived the depression just fine - renting a 2 bedroom apt. for 2 adults and 3 children down the street from the store. For years. My mother remembers having a ball to play with, that was about it. But the kids all played together in the alley and tiny backyards and they had a healthy childhood. And everyone was poor, so they didn't notice as much.
It is a long drop back to that standard of living, but once there, it may not be so bad.
Lucifer (member) wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 10:40pm.
I could care less.. my views on women, even those related to me, are not exactly positive.
It's because you see yourself in everyone around you and you're an asshole. Now back to macroeconomics, you Woody Allen of fallen angels.
It was all a big mistake. Those green shoots were turnips, which Wall Street mistook as being a reason for a turn-up, so they goosed the market.
Thank god I don't have debt or a huge mortgage.... little savings left...... won't last me until Medicare.
.....I bet there's many millions of us like that - no records to attest to the vast numbers of no more used "older resources". Even THIS County is full of them - guys older than 45 who have "gotten off the merry-go-round". Some turn to drinking, some still smoke pot, some wait behind locked doors with arsenals, most just don't care - hiding behind a TV or 'puter screen. Those are the ones slow to anger, but the ones that once riled up are liable to make headlines (again) and a difference.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Prima Noctu was a myth.
Anyway I really doubt any more than 20% of the population supported the Revolution at least at first.
What propelled it forward was ideas. NO WANT! is not an idea enough to change anything.
If and only if people come together and agree on a single solution and a new American Way can anything be changed
To quote - Robert M. Pirsig, "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance"
If a revolution destroys a systematic government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves in the succeeding government. There's so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.
Thats what happened with Obama.
The thing is we are still caught up in "Socialism VS Capitalism" likes its freaking 1984 -- until we find a third way that can satisfy the baseline of the left (social welfare) and the right (let the market decide) there really is no solution that will work
If and when we can get the factions to agree we can change stuff without any of the nonsense or any illegal acts
My solution would be social capital (something like Charles Murray's 'Plan') where every person who is a US citizen for 18 years or more gets 1k a month that cannot be attached or taxed and private health insurance if needed -- Its Libertarian Social Democracy
By giving to everyone it stops creating a client state for the left and covers everyone. It also gives money velocity and fixes an number of distribution problems.
Taxes can be flat above that or progressive as needed
IMNSHO this should be the goal as it serves both ends and takes away something from both. The right gets an end to the welfare state but has to deal with redistribution -- the left gets everybody covered with a safety net but gives up the states ability to create clients and play with lives
Supposing for arguments sake that the carnage is mostly over, just what will be driving the economy from here on out? Our economy has been mostly bubble-driven for the past 15 years. We going to find ourselves another one o' those then? Maybe push the day of reckoning back another 3-5 years?
So far as I'm aware there is only one way to create wealth, and that is to make things. Not luxuries, useful things. Just what are we going to make enough of to put all these millions of people back to work?
The developed world is saturated with useful material goods and has been since the 1920s. All "growth" since then has been in some way debt-based. That just can't be maintained forever.
in the past when manufacturing accounted for a larger share of economic activity (directly and indirectly) it would stand to reason that the peak in initial claims would match the trough in the economy- since recessions were in large part inventory related which is most pronounced in manufacturing. In the 70's and 80's the initial claims and continuing claims tracked each other quite closely- again supporting the idea of inventory based layoffs. In the last two recessions the correlation appears to have broken down. Initial claims declined but continuing claims remained high and in fact went to a new high. Again this is characteristic of a service economy- jobs lost are not easily recreated since they are also often associated with the business closing.
The question that most economist don't ask- the last growth cycle was based on jobs in finance and home building. While most of the blood letting may be over there , there is no evidence that these industries are going to be propelling growth . So what is going to lead the charge? It is not as though have reformed our core economy it is as hollow as it has ever been - only more so now that we have destroyed the public finances. We are left with essentially a Potemkin village without the fronts!
CR - as always, your charts and analysis help make some sense out of the chaos and conflicting opinions. Keep them coming! - An ever-grateful Sloper
This might be a good indicator - if we were in a typical recession. Since we are not, I guess we can set it aside. But thanks anyway to Robert Gordon for trying.
All the recessions that took place after the great one where caused by supply shocks. This one was caused by a demand shock. People keep looking for leading indicators in the recessions that have taken place after WWII. This is just simply unintelligent.
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