Roubini:
"Stress Testing the Stress Test Scenarios: Actual Macro Data Are Already Worse than the More Adverse Scenario for 2009 in the Stress Tests. So the Stress Tests Fail the Basic Criterion of Reality Check Even Before They Are Concluded"
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/256382/stress_testing_the_stress_...
Geithner's Stress Test "A Complete Sham," Former Federal Bank Regulator Says
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/225897/Geithners-Stress-Tes...
"The purpose of this program is to prevent panics, not cause them," said one senior official ... "
So, the people are being managed into a non-panic? Is that it? The world is my oyster 
.
You want a real stress test? I've got one. Take the latest quarterly report of "the 19" and drop a zero from every column. Black out the name at the top and let the FDIC review these anonymous banks 1/10th the size of the big banks and ask if they need to be taken over.
it would be impossible not to reveal the results of these 'stress tests'
after all - they aren't testing a stressful event - just the status quo - and if they can't pass that, te FDIC should be knocking on their door on some future Friday
now, if they tested a 12% U-3, 40% further housing declines, and 5% further real GDP drops - then that would be a stress test
right now, what they will release, that's just the regulators doing their everyday job - to lots of fanfare...
Amy variation on the theme of bullshit, still reeks.
Someone must be pulling his hairs out: "WTF did I publicly announce the stress test will be conducted, why, why, why!!!"
This is an interesting scenario. If the results are too positive and later revealed to be complete BS, then the administration will have destroyed its credibility and therefore its ability to enact further stimulus.
At this point I bet they wish they had never committed to doing the "stress tests" in the first place. Whatever the outcome, Obama ends up owning more of the coming catastrophe.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Any chance we can rush through Texas's request?
...perhaps including the size of losses the banks could suffer under each of the stress assumptions.
Oh yeah, the results of the baseline case that broke a month ago being reported 2 weeks from now will be so useful.
Obama would have been wise to let other people (C, WFC, GS) produce the bogus numbers while selling people on vague optimism.
It's harder to disprove the existence of "glimmers of hope" than C's profitability.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Tupuli (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 7:51pm.
Whatever the outcome, Obama ends up owning more of the coming catastrophe.
He already owns 100%. All we are discussing is the size of the bag he is holding.
paging wells fargo, paging wells fargo..............your worst nightmare is on line 1
Financials sold today. Maybe, just maybe, other banks won't be blessed with the out-of-bounds profits that Wells Fargo is claiming. And, mirabile dictu, Wells' stock fell today!
Why would the banks need a stress test? Uncle Sugar is covering up all their bad debts, giving them free money, and probably a few more intimate treats as well.
I don't see what all the bother is, really.
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl has a post up of the Rockefeller Institute's State Revenue Report...must read (pdf warning)
In the report, the plot on page 8 is at the core - it is YOY changes in state tax revenue vs. YOY GDP changes...compare the state revenue declines with the very shallow previous recession with the current recession...what conclusions do you draw?
Bond Girl's blog:
http://bondtangent.blogspot.com/
2 + 2 = whatever you'd like it to be
curious:
Goldman Sachs's Viniar 'Mystified' by Interest in AIG - bloomberg
'Misperceptions'
a)When AIG was rescued, Goldman Sachs had $10 billion of exposure to the insurance company that was offset with $7.5 billion of collateral as well as credit-default swaps that would have paid off in the event of an AIG bankruptcy,
b)The company (GS) has said it was insured against any losses from AIG and it didn't benefit from the government's rescue of the New York-based insurer.
We have a new math rule: 10-2.5 = 10
c) Viniar told analysts today that any profits related to AIG in the January-to-March quarter "rounded to zero," as most of the transactions were unwound before the end of the year. In an interview, he also said profits in December weren't significant.
We have another new math rule: 2.5 (bl) /4 (Dec-Mar) = ZERO.
DO they realize that above could be funny only to a certain point?
jm-
re: winterizing
I answered you on the previous thread.
An interesting little comment for those gritty gold investors:
... On the acquisition side, much of the increased gold production and reserves has come by way of base metal production. When base metal prices were high, gold company production costs were lower and earnings strong due to the base metal credits. The collapse in base metal prices at the end of 2008 resulted in a remarkable 31% increase in gold production costs, according the World Gold Council figures. Lesson learned: henceforth, gold dominant deposits will command a premium. ...
Look for Friday with Citigroup BAD --- MorganStanley GOOD, Wells Fargo OK
It's called the Obama PR - baffling them (the tax payer) with more bullshit - "Hope Rally".
It's interesting that this idea is being floated out to the press as a way to test the waters, but then again market manipulation, accounting fraud and false and misleading information are also interesting ideas. Perhaps Obama still has time to save himself?
I have nothing more to add, except:
"We have another new math rule: 2.5 (bl) /4 (Dec-Mar) = ZERO."
It's not the math rule...it's the FASB ruling.
Assets are worth whatever we say they are worth. Problem fixed.
Nostrovia,
Nostrovia,
bdwnnc, I was told there are only good banks and bad banks, therefore we cannot have an "OK" bank...does not compute...
Why are we wasting our time with this? The banking crisis is over,...haven't you heard?
If we do expose the banks to the light, should we have silver bullets loaded in a six-shooter in one hand and a wooden stake in the other, just in case?
In regards to banks picking up sales. I looked at Trustee sales for Ventura County and Los Angeles County this month compared to last month. So far this month there have been up 41.8% for LA County and up 41.5% for Ventura County.
I think the servicers are waiting for the standardized GSE net present value test for some of the auctions and once that comes out we should see the floodgates open.
More here:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/california-foreclosures-for-...
As many have said, the stress test is a joke given its assumption for a baseline scenario. The fact that there is still so much hand-wringing over releasing the results of is an indication that its being conducted with the stock market in mind, not the real health of the financial system.
----
"no one is pricing in low, mid teens unemployment in any of their assumptions." - Meredith Whitney
http://www.portofrotterdam.com/en/news/pressreleases/2009/20090409_04.jsp
GLIMPSES OF HOPE IN EUROPE! Late April's fool joke!
CR: you should compare these stats with the one at the LONG BEACH port. Simply food for thought!
One would think with all the quarterly filings, 10Qs, disclosure requirements, and countless other laws the public would not need "stress test" to see the gauge the health of the banks.... sigh...
"That money came from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, and Goldman's action was seen as a way of predisclosing to the markets the company's confidence that it would pass its stress test with flying colors.
Goldman's action has put pressure on other financial institutions to do the same or risk being judged in far worse shape by investors. The administration feared that details on healthier banks would inevitably leak out, leaving weaker banks exposed to speculation and damaging market rumors, possibly making any further bailouts more costly.
The Goldman move also puts pressure on the administration to decide what conditions will apply to institutions that return their bailout funds. It is unclear if Goldman, for example, will continue to be allowed to benefit from an indirect subsidy effectively worth billions of dollars from a federal government guarantee on its debt, ..."
-- From the front page's NY TImes article.
If they cannot live without the backstops, why should they be considered healthy?
I'm surprised the media hasn't come up with some happier rendition of the word "unemployed".
Let's help them in their helplessness, what have you?
I guess one is compelled to believe in the Big Banks Theory of how the financial universe began.
He already owns 100%. All we are discussing is the size of the bag he is holding.
I agree, but it's going to take a little more for other people to see it that way.
Talk to someone under 30 who strongly supported Obama. Chances are they're still gloating about how soundly they've beaten the "wingnuts".
Ironically, this same group will suffer the most for the administrations mistakes.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
"pre-employed"
"post-employed" is appropriate for those that have given up searching for a new job
"Transitional career path hiatus."
Furloughed Under Crisis Konditions
You guys have no sense of humor.
happier rendition of the word "unemployed"?
Leisure-Enhanced.
Line from "Raising Arizona": "You're young and you've got your health, what do you need with a job?"
Pressed-employed combines "pre-employed" and "post-employed." (could be spelled "prest-employed" to baffle the unknowing -- "prest-employed" might even be a precursor of best-employed, who knows?).
Free to sleep in.
Nostrovia,
Newly minted enterepeneurs.
Nostrovia,
"Dejobbed"
Not economically viable
Tea Party Inclined.
"Dejobbed"
That sums it up.
"Deworked"
I can't believe I missed "Horned".
Tupuli (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 8:21pm.
He already owns 100%. All we are discussing is the size of the bag he is holding.
I agree, but it's going to take a little more for other people to see it that way.
Talk to someone under 30 who strongly supported Obama. Chances are they're still gloating about how soundly they've beaten the "wingnuts".
Ironically, this same group will suffer the most for the administrations mistakes.
I'm patient. You should go back and see the things people were saying about me in Nov/Dec when I was predicting this was the most likely possible outcome and my predictions of failure were not personal but situational. I find it telling that even the "it could have been worse" commenters are going quiet.
Why did "we" need a Troubled Asset Relief Program if the accounting was really ok?
I have nothing more to add, except:
How much front-running goes on before this information becomes "public"?
Disclosure of govt. information needs to be reformed.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
"Unoccupation"
Preoccupation
I have nothing more to add, except:
"Delivelihood"
For the sake of irony they should award banks ratings of the scale from AAA to CC.
Also, what happens when the "stress test" results differ from existing credit ratings? Do people take that as a refutation of the test results? I mean, lipstick on pigs an all that...
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
these aren't stress tests. they're secret initiation rites.
.
how about some AUDITS????
.
with independent international auditors.
.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||//////////////////////////
I could have a happy hour for all the de-jobbed and and stress tested customers on Fridays. Your credit it always good at Leftys, because we know where you live.
Squirrel indicator +1:
Kittehs
"Rapture-employed"
TARP is fantasy:
The Eldarin system of derivation can be reconstructed from thousands of examples, and scholars also believe they have figured out the sets of sound-changes that are used to "produce" Quenya and Sindarin. Some researchers therefore feel able to copy Tolkien's method for deriving new words. The primitive "roots" listed by Tolkien are so numerous and so varied in meaning that it will normally be possible to coin some plausible "primitive" word for a missing concept, and then apply the established sound-laws to derive the forms this word would assume in Quenya and Sindarin. The result is a word that "could have" existed within Tolkien's linguistic framework. If one regards the Elven-tongues only as features of his invented world, such post-Tolkien additions are the equivalent of fan fiction. Many Neo-Eldarin cultivators would rather say they are trying to develop the languages as such, irrespective of the fictional context that only Tolkien could rightly define.
I have nothing more to add, except:
De-hired
I have nothing more to add, except:
Or just:
"Rapturemployed"
I'm patient. You should go back and see the things people were saying about me in Nov/Dec when I was predicting this was the most likely possible outcome and my predictions of failure were not personal but situational.
:: ::
Exactly. And just like when in 2001 I told my friends it will be the wing nuts who will ultimately hate Bush more than anyone in the end - now it will be the lefties who ultimately lose faith in & hate Obama in the end .... because the problems both presidents face/faced are/were a lot bigger than the ideologies of their followers.
The next phase of this game will be when liberals start claiming Obama isn't a real liberal - just like conservatives claiming Bush wasn't a real conservative. Ya whatever. In both cases the pure ideology of the faithful is just plain too small for the scope of the 'problem'. Both wing nuts & lefties run around with five pound sacks... but the problems we face is at least ten pounds of shit... certainly not enough sack for either extreme to haul alone - maybe not enough sack for both combined even IF they could cooperate... and they can't.
well, this stress test really has become a fiasco, hasn't it?
it's somewhat ironic. clearly the stress test was meant to calm everybody and make it look like something was being done, while at the same time doing nothing and sweeping the problem under the rug.
the problem is that people are starting to question things. I see it every day now. I've never seen something like this since I started following all things financial.
I was at work the other day and my secretary said "well I don't see why we need to keep bailing out these banks if they're making record profits!"
this is a woman whose commentary is usually restricted to what happens in People magazine.
questioning is dangerous to the powers that be.
I still think this will end in tears, and that the poor/middle class will get crushed... but it may not work out quite as well as the affluent are hoping.
John Stumpf, the chief executive of Wells Fargo, said the bank was in good shape and expected a $3 billion profit this quarter. The Wells Fargo statement appeared to frustrate some Treasury officials, and regulators clearly fear it will be more difficult for them to issue negative assessments of banks that have already proclaimed that they are in good shape.
Unbelievable. The regulators are afraid of the banks. No wonder we're in the shape that we are.
reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 10:02pm.
Financials sold today.
Goldman finished their capital raise. That's been a pretty reliable indicator of a top.
AMF says: "
Or just:
"Rapturemployed"
"
Nincompoop! I have stated that "dejobbed" summed it up.
It does not benefit the government and the bankers who own Summers, Obama and Geithner to be honest with the stress test process, assumptions and the results!. In the last 30 days all the major banks have been dishonest with their accounting practices and announcements (FASB, AIG, New Fiscal Quarters, etc, etc.) so why have any meaningful stress test if Congress and the Public don't seem to care about the details or results.
Bankers Rule! It Is Great To Be KING!!
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 7:57pm.
... (response to tupuli Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 7:57pm.
He (obama) already owns 100%. All we are discussing is the size of the bag he is holding.
---
Rob Dawg..... please ....please ...please...
i know you are smarter than that
this shit storm has reagan, bush one, clinton and bush two finger prints on it plus all the aok congress along the way
please tell me you mean politically...in terms of PR... obama owns it .....but not in reality
the economy is like a flat top...it takes a long long time to make a course correction...??? right???
and yes i agree that obama use of tarp is shit) and if he continues he will own it too
mt
on a side note, I"m going to call my 2 senators and my representative tomorrow. I do it every 1st Wednesday of the month now.
I'm also going to see if I can get an appointment. Never hurts to ask.
usually I get a staffer, who doesn't know anything. Tomorrow my pointed question will be
"who is the person advision the Senator/representative about all these financial matters? Don't you think it wise that the senator/representative makes this issue #1 on their agenda, since it's clearly issue #1 for all the populace?"
then I"ll blather on about random stuff I guess.
It does no good. but it makes me feel giggly inside.
It's kinda pathetic really.
well, this stress test really has become a fiasco, hasn't it?
Only in the way a pregnancy test is a fiasco [doesn't change the eventual outcome - just the hand wringing before reality pops its sweet little head out].
this shit storm has reagan, bush one, clinton and bush two finger prints on it plus all the aok congress along the way
please tell me you mean politically...in terms of PR... obama owns it .....but not in reality
the economy is like a flat top...it takes a long long time to make a course correction...??? right???
and yes i agree that obama and tarp is shit) and if he continues he will own it too
Mock, please understand, Obama chose to own it. Had he come in and cleaned house he would have come out (relatively) clean. In every sense Obama owns this disaster now. He didn't set it in motion, or even encourage it. But when it came time for the champion of Hope and Change to do right by the people he completely sold us out.
This article summarizes my feelings on the matter:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aNMQDysdnKRc&refer=c...
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
'He already owns 100%'
Having failed back in October.
mock - I'm as leftie as anyone here... BO owned this mess the minute he put his hand on the bible... buck stops here and all that. Just the way it is.
The good news for him is that when it magically 'gets better' which it will some day whoever is in the WH then that dude owns that too - who knows it might still be BO. Stranger stuff have happened... see 2004.
Note that the purpose of the disclosures is to "prevent panic" not to reveal truth, an important distinction, clearly. While investors certainly have a right as much to truth as to protection from panic, any truth they get in this case is likely first to have been processed though the sieve of contributor requirements. God forbid that some government function might be allowed to endure without it serving that most important of benchmarks.
reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 8:18pm.
....Goldman's action has put pressure on other financial institutions to do the same or risk being judged in far worse shape by investors......
----
reptillian, respectfully i disagree
i believe it has little to do with health
rather...the banksters at goldman want to free themselves of gov "bonus" restrictions
last year more than 900 employees at goldman got bonuses in excess of 1 million
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/Who_is_the_next_AIG_.html
mt
mock turtle (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 8:54pm.
Rob Dawg..... please ....please ...please...
i know you are smarter than that
this shit storm has reagan, bush one, clinton and bush two finger prints on it plus all the aok congress along the way
please tell me you mean politically...in terms of PR... obama owns it .....but not in reality
Of course. I meant it in terms of Commander in Chief, Captain of the ship of state. The only exception I'd take is with blaming Reagan. What he did while often imprudent always produced results. Even the legitimizing of deficit spending had a purpose. I don't think anyone imagined it could go on for another 20 years.
Mock, please understand, Obama chose to own it. Had he come in and cleaned house he would have come out (relatively) clean.
No chance in hell - all that would have done is pushed the UE rate up fast and furious vs. slowly later on... either way he would own it.
There was no painless way out of this mess. John McCain is the luckiest guy since Al Gore.
tupuli , dryfly
i accept your defacto verdict as well as that of rob dawg
i just hope we can agree that the seeds were sown by clinton, both bushes and, i can see causality going back to reagan
mt
The stress test assumptions being applied will make the banks look safe and sound. Our government is now owned by the bankers. Summers and Geithner are liars for the bankers.
I'm surprised the media hasn't come up with some happier rendition of the word "unemployed".
the "free-time-enabled"?
'it will be the wing nuts who will ultimately hate Bush more than anyone in the end'
Actually, our former torturer in chief can still count on the wingnut torture supporters - and that is a disgustingly large group of our fellow citizens.
Though interestingly, not those that serve in the military - many people in the military still feel that America's honor is besmirched by torture. Or else they are just looking out for themselves - before, the world knew that America was above torturing its prisoners, which meant that torturing Americans was a losing game. And that many soldiers fighting Americans would willingly surrender, knowing that Americans always treated their prisoners well.
No chance in hell - all that would have done is pushed the UE rate up fast and furious vs. slowly later on... either way he would own it.
There was no painless way out of this mess. John McCain is the luckiest guy since Al Gore.
Letting the banks go BK and then spending trillions on long-term infrastructure projects to keep UE in single digits would have left Obama blameless, and quite popular in 2012.
Someday I hope to understand why he didn't take that approach.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
lies are everywhere at the End.
.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||//////////////////////////
I went to stockcharts.com to look at the S&P 500. Although the market closed down, today, it is resting on the 5-EMA at 842.50, which is above the 10-EMA at 833, which is above the 20-EMA at 816. So, bulls may consider today's action a pull-back. Bulls may continue under the influence of the loco weed they ingested just a few days ago.
this shit storm has reagan, bush one, clinton and bush two finger prints on it plus all the aok congress along the way
----------------
try woodrow wilson (Fed Reserve was created in 1913). Or even that totalitarian Lincoln (when it changed from "these United States" to "the United States").
only president not culpable? Andrew Jackson (who let the 2nd Bank of the US -- the Fed Reserve of the day -- fail on his watch). Now there is some change that even I can believe in.
from wikipedia:
The Second Bank of the United States was authorized for a twenty year period during James Madison's tenure in 1816. As President, Jackson worked to rescind the bank's federal charter. In Jackson's veto message (written by George Bancroft), the bank needed to be abolished because:
* It concentrated the nation's financial strength in a single institution.
* It exposed the government to control by foreign interests.
* It served mainly to make the rich richer.
* It exercised too much control over members of Congress.
* It favored northeastern states over southern and western states.
i just hope we can agree that the seeds were sown by clinton, both bushes and, i can see causality going back to reagan
Yes, I completely agree.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
I don't think anyone imagined it could go on for another 20 years.
:: ::
I did - which is why I had zero respect for Reagan then and now. But he was a necessary phase of the pendulum... I will accept that... same with BO now.
They have all been selling us out for so long we think some were less bad than others. History won 't be so kind.
What is worse is that it can go on another 20 years too IF the world is stupid enough to let us do it. Watch the dollar and the bond markets for a sign the end is near as NONE of our politicians have the balls to end it - bond & forex markets do though.
Someday I hope to understand why he didn't take that approach.
Because it wouldn't have worked either - that is if 'worked' is defined as 'avoiding a major recession'... maybe there is another meaning for the word.
'BO owned this mess the minute he put his hand on the bible... buck stops here and all that. Just the way it is.'
Then why didn't Roosevelt end up owning the Depression? (Let's leave aside the belief a certain select group of people, the sort that believe that fascism is liberal, Mussolini's words to the contrary being as easy to ignore as any other inconvenient fact.)
Or for that matter, why didn't Eisenhower end up owning the Korean War?
Or am I going too far back, before the age of the sound bite, when Americans actually read newspapers?
And does Greenspan get a pass these days? Notice how his 16 year reign has simply slipped everyone's memory?
How sad, a nation with no memory of how it arrived to the point of disaster, and no ability to actually look to the painful past for possible solutions.
" i can see causality going back to reagan"
----------------
The credit cycle always ends with a blowout and default. Wars are strongly associated with government deficits. It could be argued that Reagan's deficits are justifiable as Cold War debts while Clinton's were not. Review your history of events.
1987 - NYSE crashes. Shortly thereafter Greenspan helps to redefine SS deficit as a surplus.
1989 - Berlin Wall comes down
1990 - Nikkei crash begins
1991 - Soviet union collapses as U.S. enters recession brought on by 1987 NYSE collapse.
U.S. should have done a real cutback in military and social spending after 1991 but it didn't happen.
You guys missed some obvious ones:
They suffered a "careerectomy" and are now "occupationally challenged"
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
dryfly (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:13pm.
... NONE of our politicians have the balls to end it - bond & forex markets do though.
I just wish the bond markets had the balls to end it when the consequences were tolerable. Say when TARP Alpha was proposed. Or better yet even earlier when SIV v0.8 was floated.
'Then why didn't Roosevelt end up owning the Depression?'
For the sake of clarity - Roosevelt being blamed for causing the Depression - obviously, he was the president during the Depression, and most Americans were thankful that he was.
I just wish the bond markets had the balls to end it when the consequences were tolerable.
Like the stock markets, they'll move in the manner guaranteed to inflict the most pain on the most people. We're obviously not there yet.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Tupuli (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:10pm.
....Letting the banks go BK and then spending trillions on long-term infrastructure projects to keep UE in single digits would have left Obama blameless, and quite popular in 2012....
----
youve said several things i agree with (some, few, not but let me comment on just this one
i worked on the obama campaign up one level from pawn
i served as a delegate on the precinct, legislative, congressional and state convention levels, so im inside (whatever that means)
but i fought this tarp thing all the way before jan 20 and after
i wrote letters and contacted state chair etc pleading my case up the chain of command.. saying, do not rescue the bankstas
i like obama but detest his position on tarp and his loyalty to the banking oligarchy
my only hope is that he is throwing the overlords a head fake and will hold their feet to the fire when the time is right (power consolidated etc)
i may well be wrong...and when i come to know im wrong i wont hide it
mt
Maybe they can come up with a "Bank Safety Alert" color code like they did with the "Terror Alert" thing (Elmo / Ernie / Bert / Cookie Monster / Oscar)
http://www.geekandproud.net/terror/
Because it wouldn't have worked either - that is if 'worked' is defined as 'avoiding a major recession'... maybe there is another meaning for the word.
It would have prevented the Zombie Apocalypse, much like the actions taken in GD1. Double digit UE is going to lead to profound unrest. People do crazy things when the cable and AC stop working.
If Obama had done the principled thing (i.e., followed the rule of law) and let insolvent banks fail he would not own the economic crisis. He would own the recovery.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
In case it wasn't clear, the period from 1987-1991 was about which failing superpower would collapse first. In retrospect, the United States emerged victorious because it had a larger credit card. But actions of that period have to be judged in these terms.
TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:22pm.
I just wish the bond markets had the balls to end it when the consequences were tolerable.
Like the stock markets, they'll move in the manner guaranteed to inflict the most pain on the most people. We're obviously not there yet.
Oh, we are "there." Biggest bear market head fake in history led by bankrupt Dow components? In a matter of weeks it will be blindingly obvious.
He would own the recovery.
Doesn't that pre-suppose a recovery?
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Then why didn't Roosevelt end up owning the Depression?
:: ::
For many people he did and still does own the depression - ask any 'old republican' like my FIL [late 80s], he still blames FDR for dragging out the depression. The thing FDR did was face up to it and throw out policy [whether worked or you agree with it or not]... result was that many people respected him for that.
I think FDR can be given credit for trying and having good enough results to keep us from fascism & communism... but he still 'owned' the depression. The electorate is funny that way - it can reward the guy with reelection and yet still believe he owns the issue they most regret. See GWB and Patriot/ HSA/WOT... and yet 'small gov't states righters' voted for him in DROVES... right Gov Perry? Go figure.
"I just wish the bond markets had the balls to end it when the consequences were tolerable."
bonds (gov, Investment Grade Corporate, etc) usually move contra business cycle (lower interest rate = higher face value). If the bond markets had balls, they would actually stay much closer to the face value than they are right now.
So ideally bods but those facing immediate defaults ...
Dawg,
That fast, eh? I was willing to give it until fall, and have been up in the air about the next shoe to drop being either stocks or bonds.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
really...how stupid is the government? they first announce that they're going to conduct "stress tests". Then at some point they realize that they have to release the results to the public. Are they going to say "all the banks are good except these 3?" NO, they cannot do this because this will cause a run on the "weak" banks. Not only would this happen, but other smaller, safer community banks would experience similar runs because everyone would want their money in the "safe" banks that were just stress-tested. The entire idea of conducting stress test is fine, but you don't tell the public that you're doing it. Just stick FDIC staff inside the banks & keep the whole thing secret.
The government has to release the results or investors will lose confidence & the market will sell off again. This will spark the rumors of nationalization again. The government is consistently good at making bad decisions & losing money. where's the change?
Can we get Hank back? At least he would lie to us & tell us everything is fine.
i like obama but detest his position on tarp and his loyalty to the banking oligarchy
my only hope is that he is throwing the overlords a head fake and will hold their feet to the fire when the time is right (power consolidated etc)
i may well be wrong...and when i come to know im wrong i wont hide it
There is some chance of a head fake. My initial reaction was that the "stress tests" + Geithner plan were just the cover the administration wanted before proceeding with nationalization (to avoid Obama/Chavez comparisons, for example).
However, in light of recent news, the likelihood of a head fake seems to be diminishing rapidly.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Broward
i dont think the reagan deficits were cold war justified
i recall (will look for link) that cia told reagan, the soviets were close to collapse way before reagan pushed for the 500 ship navy etc
i believe that reagan ,bush 2, (not bush 1 )and esp the norquist croiwd, liked fed gov defecit spending because they hoped they could drive the fed into bk and stop the dems social agenda
its a battle...war spending, roughly equals entitlement spending, roughly equals interest on the debt,
and those three are 90% the feddbudget... all the rest are miniscule by comparison
mt
TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:28pm.
Dawg,
That fast, eh?
Dow: Mar 9 6550, Apr 9 8080
1500 points up in a month. If we've learned anything it is that down is faster. Stickiness is dead.
Doesn't that pre-suppose a recovery?
If you were selling people "glimmers of hope" would you rather the SHTF immediately or be drawn out over several years?
For example, "recovery" would take on a different meaning if the S&P500 was < 600 right now.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Stim-u-less!
Did any of you watch that YouTube video from misesmedia on the "1920 Depression"? Made a pretty good case for letting everything go to hell as quickly as possible... so that it can rebound just that much faster. Schumpeter's creative destruction writ large.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Let me make this clear - I don't HATE Obama - I just think the problems are bigger than his 'solutions'. Guess what? I think the problems are way bigger than the GOP 'solutions' too... These are MF Big problems and there will be no painless exit. There is no easy solution.
In the depression it was, "Liquidate everything." Now, it is "stimulate everything."
I would suggest that it's the very act of looking for the *easy* solution that precludes one from seeing the real solution.
"Bankers Rule! It Is Great To Be KING!!"
only if the KING is not naked...
"officials said on Tuesday that they were now likely to encourage the banks to reveal a range of information, perhaps including the size of losses the banks could suffer under each of the stress assumptions"
My take away: These are public companies that either dont do this stress testing or, dont have an obligation to reveal it.
Either way...
Did any of you watch that YouTube video from misesmedia on the "1920 Depression"? Made a pretty good case for letting everything go to hell as quickly as possible... so that it can rebound just that much faster. Schumpeter's creative destruction writ large.
They ignore the public always has the 'October Revolution' option... Miseans in general forget economics & politics are Siamese Twins connected at the head. Try to separate them and both die.
And nobody understood this better than Schumpeter - who wrote quite a lot on both socialism & democracy besides 'business cycles'.
Shock therapy only works if the shock isn't too great and the patient is fairly 'healthy'.
"I would suggest that it's the very act of looking for the *easy* solution that precludes one from seeing the real solution."
Yes, but the bigger issue is cui bono. "Easy" for GS/Citi/AIG executives / large bondholders, or "easy" for the average taxpayer whose bailout obligations are probably already larger than his net worth?
We're really NOT all in this together.
These are MF Big problems and there will be no painless exit.
No quick one, either.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
mock turtle (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:06pm.
tupuli , dryfly
i accept your defacto verdict as well as that of rob dawg
i just hope we can agree that the seeds were sown by clinton, both bushes and, i can see causality going back to reagan
mt
Mock,
This crap started with Kennedy re: deficit spending.
This is the collapse of a fiat regime, nothing more, nothing less. Once it is put in play, the result is inevitable, and no matter who runs the boat aground today, the real people responsible have been long dead and unavailable for comment or blame.
Look at FDR and Social Security. A model based in an 1880's German mold. When granny's check is $1200, and a loaf of bread is $50, are they going to dig up Roosevelt and punch him in the face?? No, he just operated reactively, just as this idiot and the last 5 have done.
Proactive is politically VERY expensive, and often you don't keep your job.
I was mused by the news stories today about the IMF and the UK. To me it seemed like tiny little trial ballons floated off to see where the winds took them.
Mock, all that history can be looked up. your memory is false.
Reagan ramped up the Cold War spending long before the CIA reports, sometime around 1984.
http://www.pierretristam.com/Bobst/library/wf-241.htm
The deregulation and Laffer curve tax cuts can also be interpreted as war actions against the USSR.
These are MF Big problems and there will be no painless exit. There is no easy solution
For a while, he seemed to whine a lot about it how "we inherited this crisis", Then there was the "buck stops here" allusion. Now we're in the "oh shit" realization phase.
Had Obama just followed the rule of law he would be in a better place right now, and in 2012. Why not use the teleprompter + oratory to explain to people the inevitability of the fallout and why the chosen path is the most equitable one. If he wanted a populist vibe, he could point out that the TARP is tantamount to economic extortion.
/reading Hayek now, pardon the preaching
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
"The deregulation and Laffer curve tax cuts can also be interpreted as war actions against the USSR. "
How so?
Yalt-
"Goldman finished their capital raise. That's been a pretty reliable indicator of a top."
Good anecdote.
The fact that they funded at all is what should frighten people.
dryfly
my sense is that you support obama when support is deserved and criticize him when appropriate
and yeah i agree, the problems are bigger than solutions any one administration could bring to bear at this time
ps
i seem to remember that you, me, alan greedspend, and dc1000 had this discussion about 2 years ago...
that the crisis would dwarf the next president regardless of party or philosophy
mt
Listen:
No liberal ever thought Obama was liberal. Only the wingnuts thought so.
Liberals supported Kucinich, Nader, or other, and couldn't stand the thought of more anti-abortion, torture-loving Republicrap.
"the TARP is tantamount to economic extortion"
Many left and right politicos have siezed property for the greater good...I can seem to find or think of one that one that bribes the forces to stay in business for the greater good.
Tupuli,
Yeah, a true "shared suffering" could've at least bought him some insulation against the pitchforks. As it is, he's practically begging for a revolution.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
"Schumpeter - who wrote quite a lot on both socialism & democracy besides 'business cycles'."
-----------
It occurred to me today that Schumpeter made observations, and developed theory, not vice versa.
The credit cycle destroys good & bad businesses, it's nowhere as discriminating as people would like to believe.
Lately I think that Schumpeter's theory of "creative destruction" is wrong.
Often the same business will pop back up to replace one that failed in the previous cycle.
I'm seeing failed businesses all over Boise.
Many of them aren't failing because they're not competitive.
They're failing because large #s of people have no money at all.
night all a 6am flight
""The deregulation and Laffer curve tax cuts can also be interpreted as war actions against the USSR. ""
-----------
They were short-term manipulations to keep the U.S. economy running.
The U.S. lasted long enough for the USSR to collapse first, and the US DID do a half-assed military build-down under Bush 1 but didn't follow through on additional social spending cuts or a true balanced budget.
mock turtle (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:47pm.
[dryfly] i seem to remember that you, me, alan greedspend, and dc1000 had this discussion about 2 years ago...
that the crisis would dwarf the next president regardless of party or philosophy
Don't forget my prediction that the next President would be a one term President at best and the last President at worst.
Broward Horne wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:45pm.
Mock, all that history can be looked up. your memory is false.
---
so broward, just so i understand your point
are you saying the soviet union was all good in 1979
but 8 years of reagan defense spending saved the day and destroyed the evil empire?
---
i have a different take, russia was a corrupt inefficient rusting hulk going back for decades
communism is a failed system ...period
russian gdp never equaled one half of the usa gdp and they spent , pro ratta twice as much as we did on defense
the usa survived vietnameas we were a stronger country in numerous ways
russia got thumped by their vietnam,,,,afghanistan and never recovered
mt
Some day the CNBC types may learn to distinguish "good growth" from "bad growth". In other words, if a "pets.com" gets VC, but only lasts for a year, does it really exist?
Reasonable interest rates allow reasonable people to prosper. Unreasonable interest rates force reasonable people to compete with unreasonable people who can afford to lose money.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
It's amazing to me. Until perhaps three months ago, I had never read or seen a reference to pitchforks and torches. Now, it's across the spectrum, radio, TV, the web. and it's left and right.
This is a meme with an astonishing growth pattern.
i seem to remember that you, me, alan greedspend, and dc1000 had this discussion about 2 years ago...
that the crisis would dwarf the next president regardless of party or philosophy
:: ::
Ya well - we weren't alone. Not here, not on this or some of the other 'bear forums'... plenty others here saw the storms too... and some like TJ were more bearish and ACCURATELY SO than I was. I've learned more here than I've taught.
"Stress Test Results: Here comes the Sun?"
funny, i read it as "here comes the Satan."
well hey, sometimes the destruction of one paradigm gives space for a new and better one. right, right, ... right?
Hubb,
"The deregulation and Laffer curve tax cuts can also be interpreted as war actions against the USSR. "
How so?
The ability to outspend via deficits. Remember when the Russians dumped grain in the 80's?? Economic warfare. Goes on until one of the parties creditors tap out.
It is not about how big and bad you are, it's about the suits standing behind you. Where do you think we would be today without the Chinese and Japanese firmly behind us???
2001 Argentina would look like a Sandals vacation.
I don't know if this piece was brought to the board's attention - from the most recent Barron's:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123940701204709985.html
If there was one article which I would hope would be read in the Oval Office this year, that is it.
Unreasonable interest rates force reasonable people to compete with unreasonable people who can afford to lose money.
Same goes for good companies competing against TBTF zombies propped up by the government.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Broward you beat me to it.
Tupuli (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:55pm.
Some day the CNBC types may learn to distinguish "good growth" from "bad growth". In other words, if a "pets.com" gets VC, but only lasts for a year, does it really exist?
I disagree. 20 "pets.com" with 19 bk'd and one now worth 40x is a win. Besides we learn a lot from failure and even more from understanding that being allowed to fail is an integral aspect of our economy.
"i have a different take, russia was a corrupt inefficient rusting hulk going back for decades"
---------------
Regardless, those are the drivers of the time period.
I watched it all happen, I lived in L.A. during the big war ramp-up, I had friends working on those projects.
I had no knowledge of history or economics at the time, though, I had no interest until the 1987 Crash.
I mark Bush 1 as when things went wrong.
"Read my lips, no new taxes".
Mock,
If I didn't like you, and wanted to ruin your life, and you had say 10,000 cash available, but I had a credit card with 20,000 to spend, I would just sue you, for no good reason, and cause you to defend.
It wouldn't be right, but you would be done. Hell, I could probably do it for less than $5,000.
Money, (or available credit) wins, every time.
Ask an African.
" being allowed to fail is an integral aspect of our economy."
-------------
Being allowed to fail is an integral part of our old economy.
The thing really is too complex and integrated now, it's no different than a peer-to-peer versus hierarchical, centralized system, the difference between a colony of amoebas versus your body. Do you really think allowing your heart or liver to fail is conducive to better health?
'I disagree. 20 "pets.com" with 19 bk'd and one now worth 40x is a win.'
Thank God Microsoft won then - imagine what the world of personal computing would look like if they hadn't.
Well, actually, it still pretty much looks like Windows 95, doesn't it?
Though considering that Linux is free, making its worth in one sense 'zero,' it would seem that maybe worth is not merely monetary.
Microsoft certainly seems to prove that point - except in terms of revenue, their software is often worthless.
I'm surprised the media hasn't come up with some happier rendition of the word "unemployed".
"Leisure status" ?
Being allowed to fail is an integral part of our old economy.
The thing really is too complex and integrated now, it's no different than a peer-to-peer versus hierarchical, centralized system, the difference between a colony of amoebas versus your body. Do you really think allowing your heart or liver to fail is conducive to better health?
Broward,
Channeling Mandelbrot??
"I mark Bush 1 as when things went wrong."
HW's policies were actually quite sober and rational for the most part. This was a man who was a genuine war hero and also had the insight to call Voodoo Economics by its name way back in 1980. Not much more can be expected from a family of bonesmen who subsidized the 3d reich.
The problem was that the median boomer turned 33 in 1988 and began to assume control over various political and business institutions. This was the year that Geithner first worked for the Treasury, after a few years of apprenticeship working for everyone's favorite war criminal Henry K.
" Where do you think we would be today without the Chinese and Japanese firmly behind us???"
-------------
Exactly.
That's why the Nikkei crash is important.
at the time period again.
The grouping of those years and events is NOT a coincidence.
87 Crash.
89 Berlin Wall
90 Nikkei crash
91 - Soviet Crash, U.S. enters recession spawned by the 87 Crash.
'Don't forget my prediction that the next President would be a one term President at best and the last President at worst.'
You won't let us, I'm sure.
So, like, they want more credibility than the rating agencies? You know, the rating agencies who have been doing alleged stress tests for decades? The rating agencies who didn't read CR and mostly were pretty late to the "there's a bubble" party.
I think they take themselves way too seriously.
"Do you really think allowing your heart or liver to fail is conducive to better health? "
no, but I do think that Bob Marley would have been better off circa 1977 without that toe, much as our economy would be better off without C WFC BK JPM PNC BAC and friends.
I disagree. 20 "pets.com" with 19 bk'd and one now worth 40x is a win. Besides we learn a lot from failure and even more from understanding that being allowed to fail is an integral aspect of our economy.
How about the "pets.com" that never was?
Also, consider GOOG's relatively sober management after the dotcom bust wiped out most competitors. Suppose GOOG had to compete with a company that took on enormous losses (e.g. a pony for every click) in the hopes that profitable business model would emerge. Could they have survived?
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
The Great Reckoning does not speak directly to a few of these things but if you understand Davidson's reasoning and examples, the history and outcome of the Cold War make much more sense, especially in terms of today's events.
dryfly
you are right tj deserves credit as an early bell weather of current affairs
and there were others...and i agree... i too have learned far more here than i have taught
my first handle was 'notsosmart" cause i knew i was a dummy and was much in awe of the commenters here when i first lurked (and i still am in awe)
mt
I'm surprised the media hasn't come up with some happier rendition of the word "unemployed".
Let's help them in their helplessness, what have you?
-----------------------------
Riffed?
Liberals supported Kucinich, Nader, or other, and couldn't stand the thought of more
**anti-abortion, torture-loving Republicrap**.
So when humans are adult male gun toting, head slicing, woman beating, muderous by choice thugs is it wrong to hurt them, but when they are innocent and defenseless babies it is ok to vaccum them into pieces and throw them in the trash?
Got it.
This comment applies to CR's earlier post with Dshort's charts as well as the timing of the stress test results.... Could the timing actually repeat history?
Check out the chart showing D Short's "L Shaped Recessions"
Appears to be an interesting point on the chart versus the 2000 tech bubble which of course we are reliving with the housing bubble.... Guess we'll see....
sr. american mugabe wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 10:03pm.
Mock,
If I didn't like you, and wanted to ruin your life, and you had say 10,000 cash available, but I had a credit card with 20,000 to spend, I would just sue you, for no good reason, and cause you to defend.
It wouldn't be right, but you would be done. Hell, I could probably do it for less than $5,000.
Money, (or available credit) wins, every time.
---
sr american mugabe
what you say might be true for most of my country-men
i have taken steps
the godfather of my oldest daughter is an outstanding lawyer and we are childhood friends
i have nested my holdings in corporations and trusts with firewalls
i have cash in a mayonnaise jar buried out back
i am 1/2 Sicilian with a large family that has a long memory and access to lead
but your point about credit, debt and lawyers is well taken, and that is why i have taken steps
mt
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 9:48pm.
Listen:
No liberal ever thought Obama was liberal. Only the wingnuts thought so.
Liberals supported Kucinich, Nader, or other, and couldn't stand the thought of more anti-abortion, torture-loving Republicrap.
I have just one comment in response. You're an idiot.
Beth wrote at 10:17
So when humans are adult male gun toting, head slicing, woman beating, muderous by choice thugs is it wrong to hurt them, but when they are innocent and defenseless babies it is ok to vaccum them into pieces and throw them in the trash?
Got it.
------
i realize your comments were not directed my way but if i may respond
i respect your right to your religious and moral beliefs
first of all i believe in the death penalty
i believe that late term abortion is a sin and the later, the closer to murder
i dont believe that terminating a pregnancy in the first month when the fetus has gills and a tail is murder
i could be wrong
as a juvenile corrections officer and counselor, i have worked with unwanted children who grew up to be murderers
i dont know when God imparts a soul, God has not directly informed me so i am left to decide as a matter of conscience
btw do you believe in divorce?
mt
"So when humans are adult male gun toting, head slicing, woman beating, muderous by choice thugs is it wrong to hurt them, but when they are innocent and defenseless babies..."
Well, even the detested liberals[ "l-word"] don't support baby-killing. Fetuses are aborted, not babies. By Constitutional right.
And though liberals are split on gun-toting, the vast majority want to limit it as much as possible. I consider myself a liberal, and more sympathetic to claims of "woman beating" than most conservatives, and I don't mind punishing thugs if they are given fair trials. So what is your point?
Furloughed Under Crisis Konditions Entering Depression=FUCKED
Starting the Godwin countdown. What was the post about again?
And though liberals are split on gun-toting, the vast majority want to limit it as much as possible... to criminals and governments, so both can impose their will on the rest.
Yeah, unilateral disarmament is always a winning strategy.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
bgates wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 10:09pm.
"Do you really think allowing your heart or liver to fail is conducive to better health? "
no, but I do think that Bob Marley would have been better off circa 1977 without that toe, much as our economy would be better off without C WFC BK JPM PNC BAC and friends.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
C'mon now, did you really have to bring god into this conversation? I thought we were on a political theme here. Anybody see Pelosi on the daily show last night? Looked like the friggin' Joker with that painted on smile. (Disclaimer: I lean to the left, didn't vote for 'Yes we can', and as a result of his horrible appointments think he is doing a lousy job.)
When I got out of law school and went to work for a judge, the "Central Park jogger" case was big news. (Go Google) I said, "they caught those kids pretty fast, and the only evidence used to convict was a few "confessions" by teenagers questioned without counsel or parents present for many consecutive hours."
The outrage was incredible. I was cursed and laughed at, and my boss called me a "fuzzy-headed liberal". So I kept quiet.
Then about ten years later a convict has a religious conversion and confesses to the crime with no accomplices. HIS DNA MATCHES UP.
So I don't let fuckheads liberal bait me anymore.
Calpers Seeks to Buy TARP Holdings, Citigroup Assets
Calpers, as the largest U.S. public pension manager is known, said today it's setting aside "billions of dollars" amid the credit crunch and is ready to deploy capital. It added that there's a "glimmer of hope" in the stock market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZzTwlcyvQGE&refer=home
First is the worst?
For those who missed it :
Behind the Curtain
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14227076/Behind-the-Curtain4909
Have a peek.
im a liberal
i wanna limit guns as much as possible...to my enemies !
but personally, i pack heat
and i read the constitution to mean that all law abiding citizens have that right
mt
mock turtle- "I can see causality going back to Reagan"
Mock, with respect, I see it going farther back than that, at least to Johnson.
Right with you, yogi. My position is that I won't hate on the 2nd amendment if we can all agree that pillaging the 4th, 5th, 6th, and IMO even more importantly, the 1st, isn't such an awesome idea either.
CR says: Stress Test Results: Here comes the Sun?
Oh yes, some kind of "sun" is most definitely coming...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiSkyEyBczU
BS
It should have been clear to those following the thread that I was responding to this from 11:50:
"The next phase of this game will be when liberals start claiming Obama isn't a real liberal -"
This is a past phase, not the next one.
As more of a libertarian than anything, I believe in the constitution and the entire bill of rights as intended, not conveniently misinterpreted. Unfortunately, both have been unceremoniously gutted, leading to circumstances we now find ourselves in.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
but personally, i pack heat
and i read the constitution to mean that all law abiding citizens have that right
mt
-----------------------------------------------------------
I interpret the clause "The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed; a well armed and well regulated militia being the best security of a free country" to mean that population should be armed on par with what soldiers of the day have, which they are certainly not what with the peashooters we are allowed to legally own. (Again , I lean to the left, but the equivalent of this for the 1st amendment would be 'you can print anything you want, but we will run it through our censors first...')
If I'm reading the articles correctly, it seems that they want to release the methodology so average joes can do their own homework and make informed decisions.
A few weeks ago someone hypothesized that Obama had to go through the motions of entertaining all the BAD ideas in order to gain consensus for nationalization, if that is his actual goal.
If they truly do announce the stress test details, especially if the results are at odds with the banks public comments, then perhaps they really are trying to slowly move mindshare towards nationalization as the only real option.
population should be armed on par with what soldiers of the day have
AMEN!!!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
redtin,
If O & crew truly want nationalization, all they need is transparency and they'll have it. Everything suggests otherwise...
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
mp
back to johnson? could be
the more i think about it, i recall even carter doing a de-reg thing regarding airlines
and of course nixon canceled the bretton woods agreement in 71?
the biggie i can tag johnson with is guns andd butter (deficit spending for war and domestic kinda like bush 2) !?
mt logged out
I mark Bush 1 as when things went wrong.
--BH
Apparently I'm the only one here young enough to recall when all money was "real."
Somebody above blamed KENNEDY? For God's sake, JFK ordered up the silver certificate, to contest the authority of the Federal Reserve! No fiat under him! And no excessive deficits, either - that started with Reagan.
When JFK died in '63, I was still able to walk into a bank, plunk down a paper one dollar bill, and get a silver dollar in exchange.
Now, if you want to blame Johnson for removing silver from coins, go ahead. But surely the turning point was when Nixon took the dollar completely off gold.
The US had a choice - abandon the PM backing, or shrink its military empire. And for understandable but idiotic reasons, it chose to keep the empire and embark on a wholly fiat currency.
And THAT is where it all went wrong. Because once your money loses its anchor in reality, nuances in the measurement of value become amorphous. Legitimacy, critical judgment, honesty, and integrity are lost.
"the Chinese and Japanese firmly behind us" LMFAO
THAT IS JUST ABOUT EXACTLY THE POSITION THAT THE US IS IN!!!!!!!!!
A true liberal is not embarrassed to call himself one. Obviously an intelligent person tries to approach every issue without an ideological bias, but not to admit the biased leaning that every person has is disingenuous.
Obama to my knowledge has never claimed to be a liberal, and I believe his supporters would deny he is one.
I'll sign up for a couple of nuclear tipped cruise missiles to be located in my garage!
By the way, that's also why we're not going to "recover." Until our money has real meaning again, it's only downhill. Just as it has been downhill ever since 1969 - economically, politically, morally, and education-wise.
When money again represents a specific measure of something tangible, things can improve.
Not before.
Needless to say, that won't happen under our current form of government.
I'll sign up for a couple of nuclear tipped cruise missiles to be located in my garage!
Red Herring Alert!!!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
TJ, you can have the herring, I prefer red mercury:
http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSTRE53D48H20090414
The one world currency should be indexed to a weighted superbasket of liquid tangibles. No need for central banks. Consumers linked by open-source pedaflops adjusting in real time for every recorded transaction.
Everyone seems to have forgotten, or perhaps never knew, that the invention of the US monetary authority was based on populist proposals.
"And THAT is where it all went wrong. Because once your money loses its anchor in reality, nuances in the measurement of value become amorphous. Legitimacy, critical judgment, honesty, and integrity are lost. "
How about the fact that the US mainly either under Republicans or as a direct or indirect result of Republican policy--ie Dean Baker's memorable caricature "the workers are getting uppity. Call in the Fed!!!--has TOTALLY ABUSED its position as issuer of the global reserve currency!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If other countries have not abandoned the idea of the dollar as the global reserve yet it can only be b/c they are strategizing how to minimize the fall out of such a move b/c they all have substantial dollar reserves!!!!!!
I guess it's just as Johnny Rotten and the Pistols put it---NO FUTURE FOR YOU!!!!!!!!!
And perhaps most laughable of all is BUBBA the typical ditto head republican voter---"wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross"--- he loves immigrants just like the good book says: "be kind to the stranger in your gates." The world is his killing field--good for a cheap laugh. You can buy a lot of ammo for your fancy smancy machine gun with that truckload of dollars if you don't burn them for heat over the winter--but really BUBBA that would be so... oh I don't know... so Weimar Republican!!!!!!!!!!!!!
'Nite all.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Why worry about the stress test the recession is over !!
"did you really have to bring god into this conversation? "
I didn't reference belief in the almighty at all - superstition is aided by it, but certainly doesn't need it. But when timmy brought his faith that Jamie, Kenny, and the corporate sons of Sandy know best into the Oval Office, the consequences affected us all. At least the venality of Paulson's greed and mafia mindset was visible from orbit - poor little timmy is really just a 3rd-ranking priest in a fading cult.
Hey, Anonymous has been freed - teabagging works miracles!
"that the invention of the US monetary authority was based on populist proposals. "
nonsense - what happened was that the banking cartel found an opening in the vacuum created by the idiocy at the heart of Wilson's "progressive" ideology, a vacuum which has only expanded.
WJB actually recorded the "cross of gold" speech decades later, but witnesses said it didn't do justice to the spell-binding original.
I'm not against populist intervention in credit markets, but be transparent. Tax or borrow, no stealth printing.
naked capitalism has an entry up on stress test transparency:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/us-decides-to-disclose-some-resul...
"Now, if you want to blame Johnson for removing silver from coins, go ahead. But surely the turning point was when Nixon took the dollar completely off gold."
I agree re: fiat and its pernicious effects, but the historical record clearly shows that in almost every matter of import, LBJ was simply extending the policies set up by JFK. The idea that JFK was set to challenge the Fed before his demise is a laughable canard. The demonetization of silver that occurred in 1963 was explicitly the result of the policies created by JFK, who, after all, was nothing but the permanently drug-addled womanizing puppet of his ur-gangster father.
I really don't understand the urge to make a saint out of JFK or other members of his disgusting, tragic family. It is hard to find a more wretched piece of human trash to stain the pages of human history. Only a miracle kept him from radiating the planet.
As a Beatle's fan myself, I feel compelled to add:
Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been clear
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun,
and I say it's all right
It's all right
(Hey, the comment counter is working.)
"If they truly do announce the stress test details, especially if the results are at odds with the banks public comments, then perhaps they really are trying to slowly move mindshare towards nationalization as the only real option."
Wishful thinking my friend.
No, Obama is making decisions based on the information presented to him by his econ team. Can't imagine that group supporting even limited nationalization. (just a few banks, e.g)
However, given that the baseline scenario is now inoperative and the worst case is fast becoming so as well, Obama may start questioning the advice he's getting. How long that will take, is anyone's guess. I don't think it will before year end, though.
A little OT food for thought regarding tax refunds and consumer spending:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123966927473715515.html
Night all.
"WJB actually recorded the "cross of gold" speech decades later, but witnesses said it didn't do justice to the spell-binding original."
That speech was in 1896, and in response to the crushing effects of decades of deflationary pressures on idiot midwestern farmers who overpaid for land by massive multiples (sound familiar?). And WJB didn't want to drop metals as the monetary standard - he just wanted a huge one-time inflationary jolt by linking to cheaper silver (which is more or less what FDR did in 1933/4). The institution of the modern Fed was over a dozen years later, and the political chaos which allowed these criminals to succeed in their conspiracy was the result of the panic of 1907 - bankers have never met a crisis which couldn't be spun into personal gain and popular enslavement.
BTW- Why are we conferring godlike status on our Presidents? Granted it's a shorthand way to refer to the political power at the time, but really to "blame" or "credit" one man for the space in time is confusing the issue a little too much, don't you think? And if you believe in economic cycles, then it's really just different players playing their part,...chaotic swirls and strange attractors.
These things run in very long cycles precisely because most people don't pay much attention to them until they get far enough out of whack for them to notice. Loads of distractions, toys, and new gadgets make the feedback loop even more sluggish. But they're starting to notice. I was laid off last month and I've taken to long walks through the city to clear my mind. The bits of conversations that I pick up are changing. Now I've been lurking here everyday for the last 5 years so I know what time it is and have heard it all. But until very recently you would only hear it here and at related sites. J6P is starting to get spooked.
I'm beginning to think that personal credit, particularly the recent explosion of credit cards over the last decade or two, make this down cycle unlike any other. So long as the plastic still works, denial will reign. Or at least make it possible. The question is, when do the banks turn off that spigot?
"I'm beginning to think that personal credit, particularly the recent explosion of credit cards over the last decade or two, make this down cycle unlike any other."
Absolutely. In 2006 more CC solicitations were mailed to Americans (8 billion) than there were people on the planet in that year.
"but really to "blame" or "credit" one man for the space in time is confusing the issue a little too much, don't you think?"
not at all, if that individual consolidates political power to a great enough degree (LBJ Ca 64-68, W Ca 02-06) and those policies are to some degree permanent in their effects and/or irreversible.
Which is why I will be glad if Obama turns out to be a "weak" Executive. The branch always tries to grab too much power.
sdtfs (member) wrote on Tue, 04/14/2009 - 11:45pm.
Simplification of history. Most subscribe to the Big Man shaping history by being in control at a time of flux. The less regarded way to look at history is the forces at play shape history and whoever is in charge holds on until the ride ends. Things turn out ok they get the good press, things go wrong they are forgotten. History always has a winner and a loser.
I think if you are in charge and you manage to still be in charge after everything breaks then the old maxim of " you broke you bought it" applies. The current PTB broke it and they have bought it. Lets see what they gerrymander together.
"The one world currency should be indexed to a weighted superbasket of liquid tangibles. No need for central banks."
------------------
The Great Reckoning taught me to ask better questions.
The question is not about "need", Yogi.
I think we've gone from 'green shoots', to 'glimmers'.
I won't be supporting bank bombers, probably ever. I'm pretty cynical, but "world opinion" does make a difference. A non-manipulated currency is logical and efficient.
I guess what bothers me most is the idea of the straight line in Economic thinking. There are damn few policies that play out in pre-ordained form, like say, deregulation. Some of it was good, some of it was terrible, but none of it "had" to be that way. Even in the situations that you know are going to hell (the only sure call) like Zimbabwe or Argentina (or us now), you can't tell what's going to happen after the crash. A few years ago (decades?), Brazil had horrendous inflation, and now, they seem to be strong.
bgates- "nonsense - what happened was ..."
William Greider, "Secrets of The Temple," p. 261 ff.
If you're going to call me nonsensical, be prepared to be called on it.
Jesus.
Good night and good luck to all of you.
"A non-manipulated currency is logical and efficient."
--------------
And of no local advantage to politicians or government.
Ergo, it will not happen.
Until it is. Habeas Corpus is of no advantage to government. It's a struggle, but progress occurs.
Al Franken by 317 votes. Gosh darnit, people like him.
"If you're going to call me nonsensical"
I would never call you or anyone else nonsensical (excepting the 50 million Americans who voted for W, of course), however I would state that ascribing altruistic ideals to a naked power-grab is indeed such. This is true in regards to the seizure of power by the fed in the early days of the wilson administration much at it was true in the recent neocon coup. Have our recent overseas adventures been motivated by an urge to establish 'security', or was this a fig leaf for darker motives? The same could be asked of the conspirators behind the Fed's establishment then and the thievery of trillions now, and the lazy historian's conflation of these events with the "progressive" tenor of the day. (Never mind that Wilson, the ultimate progressive, was a fan of eugenics, a Klansman, and a principal architect of the european "peace" of the 1920s. Personally, I enjoy Grieder's writing, but can only pity someone with a degree from the cesspool which Wilson helped create in its modern form and also gave us such intellectual luminaries as Helicopter Ben.) The spectre of financial anarchy loosed in 1907 was all they needed then, much as a little fear at the thought of poor little counterparties not getting their ponies was all it took for Hank to get his bazooka last September.
' "The purpose of this program is to prevent panics, not cause them," said one senior official'
Confirming, again, my view this administration is run by Pollyannas for followers who will accept the very same predations of Bushism as long as served by their own partisan hacks.
Message to President Money Honey: if you're going to stage Five Year Plan-style bravery exercises, don't call them "tests."
From democracynow.org:
Mother Jones magazine is reporting top bailout recipients have dispatched more than 100 past congressional staffers and ex-government officials to shape the bailouts to their liking. One of Citigroup's top lobbyists, Jimmy Ryan, is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's former chief counsel. Goldman Sachs has more than thirty ex-government officials registered to lobby on its behalf, including former House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt. In addition, ex-staffers for at least ten members of the Senate Finance Committee have lobbied lawmakers on behalf of big financial firms receiving billions of dollars of government assistance.
The purpose of the stress tests is not to determine which banks are solvent, but which set of pigmen get the best service. Never one to miss an opportunity to rape the poor, our government exists for the sole purpose of protecting the corporate monopolists.
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 3:35am.
Until it is. Habeas Corpus is of no advantage to government. It's a struggle, but progress occurs.
How will you prevent me, region number 417, from printing region 417's own currency, and offering a discount to anyone who pays their taxes in it? Once I get my foot in that way, you're sunk.
That Barton Fin... (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 5:40am.
' "The purpose of this program is to prevent panics, not cause them," said one senior official'
What if the purpose of policy was its purpose, and spin doctoring went back to being a handmaiden of actual deeds?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVtg1X1_ctPc&refer=home
Fed Considering More Disclosure on Emergency Lending Programs
By Craig Torres
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials are considering steps to provide the public with more information about emergency programs aimed at reviving credit and ending the U.S. recession.
The central bank will probably increase disclosure on the collateral it holds against loans to financial firms, while also weighing a full range of options, including possible press conferences, according to people familiar with the matter.
Wow. They're considering a full range of media placements! Press releases about possible press conferences! The big guns are in play now.
You know, now that we have a media policy, the problem is in the bag! With the PR department steering this, I don't see what can go wrong!
"I think if you are in charge and you manage to still be in charge after everything breaks..."
Again, the illusion of control. Systems have a built-in stability until they're de-stabilized. Human managers take credit for the former and deny responsibility for the latter. 'How was I supposed to know?' is the motto of the human race.
Pavel Chichikov
Pavel:
'How was I supposed to know?' is the motto of the human race.
Invariably uttered by someone who could very well have been expected to know better, and generally did.
Region 417 can offer a discount to its taxpayers to pay in its paper. That paper will not be accepted anywhere else, and region 417 will be an economic island.
The power to print currency is distinct from the power to collect taxes. The collapse of a currency doesn't always mean regime change.
'Byzantine_Ruins (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 3:07am
What if the purpose of policy was its purpose, and spin doctoring went back to being a handmaiden of actual deeds?'
Do you mean that no real policy will be effectively enforced? Do you mean Clinton/Bush type of spin doctoring is the norm?
Just trying to understand.
Thanks.
In fact, US localities ARE printing currencies. Perfectly legal, and common in the 30's. Same notion as charging one rate for tourists and one for locals. Minor efficient pricing tricks to grease the wheels of industry.
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 6:42am.
Region 417 can offer a discount to its taxpayers to pay in its paper. That paper will not be accepted anywhere else
Positive assertion.
How are you going to stop them from offering a discount / favorable trade terms for settlement in their own currency?
and region 417 will be an economic island.
It will be a potential trade partner with a more flexible monetary base than the neighbors who don't use fiat currencies.
The power to print currency is distinct from the power to collect taxes.
The power to print currency is an outgrowth of the ability to put a gun in someone's mouth and assert your paper is more real than the guy down the street's paper. Nothing more, nothing less.
The collapse of a currency doesn't always mean regime change.
But the collapse of the regime ends the ability to enforce seigneurage and brings the currency to its natural value.
passer_joie wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 6:44am.
Do you mean that no real policy will be effectively enforced? Do you mean Clinton/Bush type of spin doctoring is the norm?
That the latter has become confused with real policy. Media apparatus has grown so lush and well-developed that it now gets the importance in policymaking that its management organ commands, rather than serving an essentially subordinate role to real decisionmaking.
'How was I supposed to know?' is the motto of the human race.
--------------------------------
Correction that is only uttered by 99%. The remaining 1% KNOW and it is going according to plan.
Obama is a basketball fan. What we are seeing is the full court press.
It's just too bad that on the other side of the hill are a million intended and unintended consequences of decades of bad policy.
Region 417 can offer a discount to its taxpayers to pay in its paper. That paper will not be accepted anywhere else
-------------------------------------
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/04/us-states-start-printing-their-own...
oh oh wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 7:15am.
Obama is a basketball fan. What we are seeing is the full court press.
It's just too bad that on the other side of the hill are a million intended and unintended consequences of decades of bad policy.
No, there's a fundamental flaw in the response, it's not just the size of the problem.
Way too much emphasis on "smart people" running around behind the scenes trying to solve everything with secret plans.
*Way* too much emphasis on "fact management" and controlling the flow of the public perception of the crisis, too little emphasis on the crisis itself. They are confusing the beast with its shadow.
"It will be a potential trade partner with a more flexible monetary base than the neighbors who don't use fiat currencies."
That country would not have a flexible monetary base in the world's tangible-based currency.
"The power to print currency is an outgrowth of the ability to put a gun in someone's mouth and assert your paper is more real than the guy down the street's paper. Nothing more, nothing less."
In international trade, the power to have a currency accepted for reserves is also a function of historical credit rating/printing control. We don't go to war over every devaluation, and if the rest of the world decides to dump the dollar almost simultaneously, all our sacred guns are not going to accomplish much.
China is already demanding "assurances" for the value of its Treasuries. As soon as they get them in an (economically or legally) "enforceable" writing, there will be a de facto new world currency.
Eventually, as with the Euro, people will realize how stupid it is to pay a premium to some bank to convert the name or the picture on the paper.
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:05am.
That country would not have a flexible monetary base in the world's tangible-based currency.
Gold is already widely available without outside agency. Why does everyone keep using paper betting slips?
In international trade, the power to have a currency accepted for reserves is also a function of historical credit rating/printing control.
We don't go to war over every devaluation
You wouldn't go to war over this one either. You'd just see the global currency splinter or become someone's poppet, pretty swiftly too. Currency regime is an outgrowth of hegemony because seignorage springs directly from the ability to compel -- settlement in terms of your choice, in this case. Whoever can compel that will have their face on the coins.
if the rest of the world decides to dump the dollar almost simultaneously, all our sacred guns are not going to accomplish much.
They will secure your domicile and shortly thereafter, the successor regime to your instantly-defunct state! That's a lot!
The purpose of the stress test should be to determine which banks are solvent. By announcing that the purpose is to avoid a panic, they are all but admitting the tests are bogus.
stress-testing is too important not to be subject to scientific standards -- peer review, corroboration and open disclosure of methods.
My investor-confidence cup runneth over.
A single world currency will never stop theft, by organized militaries or roving gangs. But it would increase the transparency of such theft, so is a small step for mankind.
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:19am.
China is already demanding "assurances" for the value of its Treasuries. As soon as they get them in an (economically or legally) "enforceable" writing, there will be a de facto new world currency.
I claim the GDP of Serbia to be mine by right. See, easy? Now, I await the check.
Gonna be waiting a while, huh?
What's the difference between me and an international institution?
." The remaining 1% KNOW and it is going according to plan."
That's *their* illusion.
Confined systems - atomic power plants are an example, or electricity grids - can be controlled in most circumstances. But highly complex systems in crisis, usually involving human input - are essentially unpredictable in action, the outcomes incalculable. If there is a disaster at the end of the process, will the 1% take responsibility for it? If, for instance, 20 million people are killed in a war, have the 1% *intended the deaths of 20 million?
Pavel Chichikov
"Gold is already widely available without outside agency. "
Gold is overrated as a store of value. Easily pirated, if not counterfeited, it is also subject to fluctuating demand, which the bugs refuse to believe.
The superbasket index would account for every metal, grain, or other liquid commodity, to minimize fluctuation. The value of a currency is in its reliability as a measure.
The traded units would merely be unique numbers. Every transaction recorded and traceable by anyone using the system. Why they put serial numbers on Federal Reserve Notes, even if they don't bother to barcode yet.
Everyone around the world will tell one another that your claim to the Serbian GDP is bogus. They can even use facebook. You must steal it and yes you will be an island.
All currencies are based on faith, the one world no different.
UBS to cut 8700 jobs after posting $1.8B loss. DealBook:
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/ubs-to-cut-8700-jobs-after-...
Looks like that was 7500 jobs a DealBook. NPR reported 8700 on Morning Edition.
From the B(l)S CPI Report: "The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both rose 0.2
percent"
Be careful that you don't resist the argument because your standard of living depends on it. How does "American exceptionalism" ring in your ears?
Yogi, I'm not sure it doesn't ring as a logical fallacy called 'poisoning the well'.
CPI down 0.4% YOY, first such decline since 1955. Things are looking, um, up?
"The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 0.2% for a third-straight time last month, slightly greater than expected. However, an 11% rise in tobacco prices accounted for over 60% of the rise in the core index, suggesting that when that largely one-off change is excluded, prices remain very tame across the board."
............cpi link.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.x9llWT51WA
NEW POST at Calculated Risk.
Ways to view:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/
Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, and the new Mishbot feature, as well as notice of new posts on other blogs, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn
The cost for each and every country to print their banknotes is a tiny fraction of the face value, so why would having a 1-world currency be advantageous to anybody?
And as far as counterfeiting goes, your computer contains around $250,000 worth of complex printing options. (or that's what it would have cost if you were a counterfeiter, circa 1975)
Burnside, could you elaborate?
Sure. It's a variant of the ad hominem argument, where some fault - say a prejudice or perhaps even dishonesty - is attributed to one's opponent in a debate or discussion.
Usually the examples given are terrifically blunt, but in real life its use is generally subtle. The person using it may not be aware they have done so.
Your introduction of American Exceptionalism could be an example. My introduction of 'poisoning the well' is an example.
Certainly. But too often I hear "the dollar is entrenched as the world's reserve currency, like it or not" from those like me who benefit greatly from that status. I have trouble with the dismissal of "it'll never work, so don't waste your time."
So many smart people I know dismissed Linux as a joke. Still open question who will have the last laugh. MSFT can go to zero. Linux has always been there.
Thermite
"A recent article published in the respected peer-reviewed Open Chemical Physics Journal by nine noted scientists offers incontrovertible proof that the dust from the Twin Towers and Building Seven of the World Trade Center contains small intact samples of Nano Thermite."
Rest of the article here: http://informationclearinghouse.info/article22408.htm
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:51am.
Be careful that you don't resist the argument because your standard of living depends on it. How does "American exceptionalism" ring in your ears?
Are you talking to me?
As of my April 8 pay stub, I've made $1,414 dollars this year. You're always welcome to donate, although I'm not in any particular need. However, you are not welcome to tell me my argument is made in apology for vested interests. Rather the opposite.
I'm not arguing "for" the dollar. I'm not even arguing "against" your proposed currency regime. I'm just saying what's going to make it valid and accepted is a political / economic consensus, not its inherent merit. If it isn't a consensus of one, your regime is gonna either splinter or consolidate just like any other currency regime, as someone proves they are the one really in charge down at the central bank.
Oh, American exceptionalism is real enough. I'm just saying it isn't always applicable.
An entrenched reserve currency really is pretty difficult to dislodge, but I think many of your detractors really may be too dismissive. I tend to not look at the question too closely out of a late-in-life habit of neglecting what 'should' be happening, concentrating instead on understanding what 'is' happening. A conservation principle and in the interest of clarity.
And all I'm saying is inherit merit does count towards arriving at a political/economic consensus. It's both moral suasion and punishment as deterrent that control the murder rate.
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:38am.
And all I'm saying is inherit merit does count towards arriving at a political/economic consensus.
Maybe a better way to propagate it would be as a "method" and not as a "currency"?
Ultimately, if it is what you want it to be, you could just compute it from data independently and display it constantly. So you could host an engine on a website with all the guts accessible.
Once you have currency units you have central bank independence issues. By presenting it that way, you could make it like a script accessible to anyone with net connection, which is basically everyone. I think you need to escape having currency units if you really want this to fly.
Byz, I don't doubt your high standards of intellectual honesty. It's lesser lights that are at risk of confusing difficulty of maintaining a consensus with the value in struggling for the ideal.
I watched Bernanke at Moorhead U. yesterday for the entire speech (dull) and Q and A (fairly lively). He's not evil, is very bright and I believe capable of adapting, unlike Greenspan. No one cedes power easily, but everyone cares a little about popularity polls, or at least about reputational legacy.
Yes I think it would begin as merely an index of data. Once reliability is built, the currency unit trading will evolve naturally. I recognize much of the issue is semantic, and smart entities with clout can already hedge currency printing risk in many different ways. But not everyone has the time and resources to keep up, leaving room for arbitrage with net wealth destruction.
1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 10:03am.
Yes I think it would begin as merely an index of data. Once reliability is built, the currency unit trading will evolve naturally.
I would try to keep these separate. Maybe make it something private entities do? The golden apple of seignorage is what'll draw the corruption.
Did it make me puke to hear Bernanke blame minorities for not being "educated" on saving money and keeping a credit rating while justifying hundreds of billions for AIG et al?
Still...
That's sun as in "sunlight is the best disinfectant," not as in "it's gonna be a bright, sunshiney day."
for the record
i made an entry at 854 near top defending obama, saying that our problems go back decades and are not yet "owned" by the present administration
near the bottom i wrote "obama and tarp..." and meat instead, " obamas use of TARP is shit
so corrected at this time!
mt
Pavel
I detect a bit of control theory knowledge from your posts. I believe the economy is a huge nonlinear dynamic system with lots of states and inputs. The FED has just a few of those control knobs with which to implement a sort of feedback control law to reshape the dynamics of the system to be more desireable/stable etc. Regulation is another tool to re-shape the dynamics of the system. Do you think the Austrians or the Keynesians have a better concept on shaping this system? Is the system too complex for a FED to develop a control law that works? Are regulations a futile method of reshaping those dynamics? Any other who would like to comment?
Ways to view comments on this thread:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/
Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn