Well, isn't it about time for the survivors of the shakeouts to start emerging? I mean: even those going into hibernation mode (ISTR Dawg talking about a VP of a homebuilder who told him that was the sum of their current business plan?), wouldn't they know who they are going to be and who is going to die? It is a horrible number still, but it seems reasonable to think that nearly two years after the credit bubble popped (9/07), we'd be approaching the point where we have some idea where the new equilibrium will be.

It's worth noting that the single largest contributor to the increase was in the area of "sales forecasts, next 6 months".

So the homebuilders (those that remain!) are telling us that they expect sales to get better soon. Or ... maybe that they've been down so long that it's started to look like up. Take your pick, I guess.

I was wondering that myself some investor guy, when the competition goes TU it does tend to make one more "confident"...I wonder if Lehman and Bear made GS more or less confident?

I dunno. I monitor my small market via Redfin, California city of 55K, and they added eight homes to the listing just yesterday. Almost all existing, plus one new condo that won't move. We didn't have the land here for huge tracts of new homes.

In short, I'm looking for signs that phantom inventory is about to surface. Let you know if I see a trend.

There is no followup..the builders are just doing the same thing as CNBS...speaking BS

The housing market index (HMI) increased to 14 in April from 9 in March. The record low was 8 set in January.

Out of 100? What are you measuring that you can tell the difference? I mean, whoa, holy HOMEBUILDER CONFIDENCE INDEX SKYROCKETS! INCREASES BY 50% IN JUST ONE MONTH! I'm sure that's very compatible with the new Global Nice Nice agenda but what do these numbers represent and will this change when the foreclosure moratorium pushes more REO onto the market?

With the NAHB members who have gone bankrupt no longer contributing to the survey the survivors are reporting that conditions have recovered to the halcyon days of November 2008.

"A point of light indicating we might be bottoming?"

How about the fact that there are a few less, of the worst home builders, left. So, that might affect the sample set. Not that that is not a good thing long term, but would tend to make looking for the "glimmers of hope" like looking for an undigested peanut in a shit sandwich.

"I don't give a shit what builders think. Dirtbags. Talk about overcapacity."

Well, at least at the end of the day, they have produced something, "real." Unlike the bankers and financial engineers.

"4 house on my street for sell for more than 6 months. No one is buying..."

Given NC's unemployment picture, I find it hard to picture a jobless new college grad running out and qualifying for a home loan.

Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 10:30am.
Every week I see more and more used homes for sale that nobody wants, but people are buying new homes all of the sudden?
Something smells rotten in the state of Denmark to model.

California saw a lot of this in the last two housing busts. Mechanics liens are being settled by giving the subcontractors with claims the houses. Small investor groups, doctors, lawyers, etc. are catching knives. All kinds of "sales" are not really retail or arms length transactions.

people buying houses at prices below replacement costs.
at best homebuilders can get some cash (dimes to dollars) out of their standing inventory.
let me know when the confidence index increases to a point where they start buying lumber...

Scone,
Additionally, it's probably easier to find good subs today, and perhaps some of the bad ones have left the field, and even the area.

In regards to you question about the origin of the word slave from some days ago, it was actually coined by the Vikings. They'd ramble through the areas of Eastern Europe and swipe Slavic women they called slavs and sell them to Arabs and others, and these individuals became known as slaves. So there ya' go.....