Comments for "Capital One Credit Card Charge-Offs Increase Sharply in March"


Ways to view comments on this thread:

Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR

CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/

Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/

For live chat, join us in IRC.

To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.

Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.

Feed back via bobn


*Paging Jamie Dimon and JPMorgan, paging JPMorgan to the thread*


Funny just got another credit card limit cut in half. Never carried a balance!


So what's really in YOUR wallet?



Imagine what it will look like when they reform the bk rules....



Is there anyplace where people have posted/discussed results of just letting everything fail, I mean some comprehensive analysis?

Could this be about that - http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090409/pl_politico/21053;_ylt=AjnsDCn...

Every day seems to enlarge the clusterfuck and I would like to see some scenarios spelled out so I can run my own simulations.

...................................................................


" EvilHenryPaulson (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 1:39pm.

*Paging Jamie Dimon and JPMorgan, paging JPMorgan to the thread*"

My prediction is that JPM numbers are not going to be nearly as rosy as WFCs or GSs. They don't have nearly the mortgage production of WFC, having shut down the Wholesale lending platform recently, and they don't have the benefit of hiding bad results in a stub month, as GS did.

Plus, I think JD in some ways is more honest than either of those two, in that he will release numbers that more accurately reflect the fundamentals.

I think they will have decent numbers, but clearly the market is being sustained these days by super-positive numbers, whether they are real or not.


Man, that just couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys, really.


This just emphasises that there is only ONE way to quickly exit this depression, and that's the same way we got into it.

To stop the economic collapse, we will need to push more debt onto people (and taxpayers) that cannot afford to repay it.

And then the next collapse will come when it becomes obvious we cannot service the debt.

If we are able to manufacture an artificial recovery this way, then next time the collapse will be worse. Can you imagine?


I always thought that the way for the Soviet Union to have taken out the USA, would have been to throw a spanner into the works of our credit card system, and we'd fall apart...

We're doing it to ourselves, instead.


The phrase "what is in you wallet" now carries a whole other meaning. Smile

Evil


Treasury says bank lending declined in February
Treasury: bank lending declined in February despite billions of dollars in government support

Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Wednesday April 15, 2009, 1:28 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bank lending to consumers and businesses for many types of loans fell in February despite the billions of dollars in government support the banks received.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday its latest monthly survey of lending activities at the nation's biggest banks showed nine reported increases and 12 posted declines. The median, or midpoint, for lending activity dipped 2.2 percent in February.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasury-says-bank-lending-apf-14934485.html


They have access to your tax dollars....which are shrinking because many of you don't have income to tax...so you are only paying taxes from your purchases(food, squirrel sauce, etc).

AND the portfolio won't be marked down so they will only need money for the actual charges offs....not any negative effect from increase loan loss reserve on the balance sheet.....or as I like to call it the B.S.!

Glod Bless Amerika


I guess this is the bottom for charge-offs then, and the sky's the limit for COF shareholders, UP TODAY ON THIS FINE NEWS!

The chart generously supplied by CR clearly indicates a bottom. What's not to like?


I haven't used my Cap One VISA in years (no balance) - their TV ads are so pre-adolescent that I'd be embarassed to use it in public. I haven't cancelled the card because I didn't want my 800+ FICO to be damaged Tongue

And, they have punitive rates and penalties.


S'okay. What they are losing on volume and poor quality they'll make up in usury and surcharges on the rest.

Tanta used to say we 800+ FICOs were getting free money because the cc companies were making their nut with the lesser borrowers. Seems those days are over.


I love bottoms.

and we've had so many lately.


CR - We will always allow you to graph!

Oddity of the day. Planning for retirement? Retirement calculators dont allow you to input negative inflation rates.


CR,

Maybe you could feature this brilliant cartoon by Horsey :

http://www.seattlepi.com/horsey/viewbydate.asp?ID=1930

Just a thought.
Thanks.


"Out West, where you vacation, the aspens will already be turning. They turn in clusters, because their roots connect them." (Scooter Libby)


Haha wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 2:03pm.
Maybe you could feature this brilliant cartoon by Horsey :

Crimson Permanent Assurance!


Retirement calculators also assume an 8% + rate of growth and sub 2% inflation... minor problems.

//Oddity of the day. Planning for retirement? Retirement calculators dont allow you to input negative inflation rates.//

Evil


Joanna, part of my prior jobs has been looking at what happens if/when things fail. I've done massive studies and simulations on these types of things.

If you want to know if the US will devolve into Mad Max or civil war, highly unlikely. Other countries? It could easily happen somewhere like Thailand, or some of the central asian countries. Think localized versions of Somalia for anarchy, North Korea for authoritarian but starving.

Each failure is different, but they tend to have things in common. One is how seemingly disconnected things fail together. If it's in finance, there is a particular proprietary method I use to know where to look for connected problems. One of the most interesting real world short-term techniques is to look at what happens if nothing gets delivered for long periods of time. This is common in many natural disasters, civil unrest, and financial crises. Places which are very dependent on outside food, fuel, etc., can be quite vulnerable. That vulnerability is often seasonal, like shutting off natural gas during winter in a severe climate. Certain things have a lot of short term substitutes, even if they are dirty, expensive, or inefficient. Fireplaces or blankets vs natural gas for heating is an example.

There are lots of different foods which will keep people alive and reasonably healthy for months. Complete lack of food is rather different. Lack of clean water is dangerous, even in the short term. Complete lack of water is a humanitarian disaster waiting to happen. One of the most positive things about American cities is how little of our water is actually used for drinking. You can have a pretty big supply disruption and still be able to get to drinking water in most places. In other countries, the situation can be very different.

One of the most encouraging things about the current economic problems is that so much of it is just paper losses. If the value of housing in the US drops by half, very few houses were actually destroyed. It's just a matter of people placing a lower price tag on each house. Something similar is true of credit card losses. Lenders aren't coming to people's houses and putting an axe through their flatscreen tvs.

Providing credit to people who weren't creditworthy, and providing too much credit to people who would have done just fine with smaller loans, is causing massive losses to lenders. When you follow the losses and gains, you see that the long term problems include poor allocation of labor and resources. People were getting paid to do things which were counterproductive (e.g., making bad loans), or which we just didn't need as much of (e.g., construction). Now, we have assets no one wants at current prices, and people with experience in things we don't need, or don't need nearly as much of. If you can get people doing actual productive work faster, the problems will resolve faster. While the accounting makes it look like the problems are primarily debt and leverage, much of the trouble arises from too many people moving money or paper around.


Rob Dawg,

Investment bankers used to called privateers in ye olden days. They used to run slave boats and extortion rackets.

Evil


Yes.. that is true, but our fearless leaders must acknowledge that. We also cannot run the old system like we used to.. and that means a lot will change.

//One of the most encouraging things about the current economic problems is that so much of it is just paper losses. If the value of housing in the US drops by half, very few houses were actually destroyed. It's just a matter of people placing a lower price tag on each house. Something similar is true of credit card losses. Lenders aren't coming to people's houses and putting an axe through their flatscreen tvs.//

Evil


If we've learned anything it is that complex systems do not fail predictably. Expecting this one to fail predictably is irrational.

Forced to guess I'd say cascade tax revenue failure will be the event or events to force the issue.



some investor guy

Thanks for your input on my question.
I've also been studying a lot of these factors for a long time, but only as an interested amateur Wink

I realize most hard data/published studies won't be available to the average knob, just hoping someone somewhere might have a link to something on those lines.

Luckily, as bad as things may seem when spun up on various media, this country does have a lot of buffer (though unfortunately too many individuals don't). Unless of course we get into some perfect storm event....

...................................................................


That is correct.. and I suspect that the "trigger" for the final collapse is something that we have no clue about.. and which may not even currently exist.

//If we've learned anything it is that complex systems do not fail predictably. Expecting this one to fail predictably is irrational.//

Evil


"I'd say cascade tax revenue failure "

Dawg

+2


OT: Took some pics at the Sacramento tax protest today:

http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/

The crowd was big (>5000), and less right-wing-crazy than I thought it'd be. The left has some catching up to do on the rabble-rousing front. Smile

------------------
sacrealstats


Rob,

I've also looked at municipalities in distress. A funny thing happens. The city, school district, etc., claims that they don't have enough money. The problems go on for years. When the State takes over, there is typically at least one of the following problems: long term decline of population, overly generous pay packages, corruption, financial reporting games or disarray, or a bad problem with adverse employee selection (the good people keep leaving). Most of the entities taken over are fixed financially within a few years. Sometimes they lack the authority to fix their own problems. More often, they lack the will or the skills necessary.


The picture of the beggar, dog and cat is horrible funny. The cat clearly couldn't care less. Bad times are good for mice and rats.

lawyerliz


"a very troubling deterioration ..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7miRCLeFSJo


By the way Capital One gave me a collection call the other day. How late am i sez I.

2 days.

2 days, I say incredulously.

2 days, he says in his best guilty-inspiring voice.

I say, well you people must be scared, really scared I say and hang up.

lawyerliz


lawyerliz,

CO is scared.. 2 days.. sheesh!

Evil


For lawyerliz:

Anderson Cooper: It's hard to talk when you're teabagging

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I64Ed5iLu4M


By the way Capital One gave me a collection call the other day. How late am i sez I.

2 days.

2 days, I say incredulously.

2 days, he says in his best guilty-inspiring voice.

I say, well you people must be scared, really scared I say and hang up.

:: ::

My CC collections people call me BEFORE it's due - a reminder - that's fine I like to talk to people.


He should know!

//Anderson Cooper: It's hard to talk when you're teabagging//

Evil


Liz, Dryfly-

That's amazing.


They are panicking.. good..

//My CC collections people call me BEFORE it's due - a reminder - that's fine I like to talk to people.//

Evil


What sort of default numbers would it take for the credit card companies to go belly-up?


We will know soon enough.

//What sort of default numbers would it take for the credit card companies to go belly-up?//

Evil


some investor guy (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 2:26pm.
Rob,
I've also looked at municipalities in distress. A funny thing happens. The city, school district, etc., claims that they don't have enough money. The problems go on for years. When the State takes over, there is typically at least one of the following problems: long term decline of population, overly generous pay packages, corruption, financial reporting games or disarray, or a bad problem with adverse employee selection (the good people keep leaving). Most of the entities taken over are fixed financially within a few years. Sometimes they lack the authority to fix their own problems. More often, they lack the will or the skills necessary.

some investor guy,
I've learned to pay attention to your comments. You are correct. In my experience even a small drop in population is often the proximate cause for disaster. Some here would have no problem calling it a Ponzi scheme. Of course it doesn't even take that anymore. A municipality to watch is Oxnard, California. They've drunk all the kool-aid. They even sold some of their buildings and are leasing them back. They exhibit all the characteristics you cite. They are also the largest city in the nation with at large elections. I don't need to tell you the potential pitfalls of that in a city of 180k.

IMO the entirety of the problem arises from unrealistic and unsustainable compensation schedules.


"It could easily happen somewhere like Thailand,"

Remember the village in SW Thailand that was literally blown off the map after some of the locals started looting a dynamite truck while smoking cigarettes? My wife, who's from there, says the muslims in the area make SW Thailand ungovernable, and that was true 20 years ago. Wait until the SHTF.


I inadvertently let some airline miles expire (40k ish). I got a no-fee credit card offer to reinstate those miles plus add 5k on first use. I'm using just a debit card, but it's been hard not to consider it. Worth it?


Will the teabagging thing ever go away?

I guess dry & I are just deadbeat wastrels.

I don't owe that much, either.

lawyerliz


"that's fine I like to talk to people"
dryfly

I do this to telemarketers. I kept some person on the phone for 40 minutes while they tried to get me to attend a free Investment Seminar. I had her go thru the adgenda, speaker bios..asked lots and lots of questions (best one I came up with was their handicapped parking at the Hotel - she put me hold to find out, LOL!!) and ate 1/2 a pack of crisps while I watched the news.



"One of the most encouraging things about the current economic problems is that so much of it is just paper losses. If the value of housing in the US drops by half, very few houses were actually destroyed."

Actually, that's a problem. We need to get rid of poor performing home to match supply with demand.


Sexy Derivative - when I'm on the road a lot I can run up some hefty charges... I scare myself so the fact they worry too isn't all bad. If they were doing that sooner they might not be in the jam they are in now.


I prefer being mean to telephone solicitors.

What are you selling. They are not allowed, ever, to say they are selling something.

Is it free? No? Then aren't you selling something?

AT&T representatives call incessantly. They are no fun anymore.

lawyerliz


dryfly (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 -
My CC collections people call me BEFORE it's due - a reminder - that's fine I like to talk to people.

Dry, good. you're on. We were talking about you 3-4 threads down. Someone was asking about the economics behind holding on to "excess" capacity and I only gave a lame answer hoping you'd expand.

Oh, and a "special request." I might be interested in an exotic machine tool. Ever seen a tape laying/winding machine for composite structures? Either mandrel winding or table layup. Maybe even a pressure autoclave.


Observation --

If employment is trailing

And employment recovery lags

And CC payment is contingent on employment

Concluded, there are some securitized CC receipts that are gonna turn TOXIC at some point.

Just sayin.


,i> Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 4:36pm.

What sort of default numbers would it take for the credit card companies to go belly-up?

Sovereign default numbers?

The other sort just sends them to the Fed for another infusion.


This is stunning!
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/analyst-wells-fargo-to-show-120-b...
----------------------------
That's surely after some 'creative accounting'.


"This is stunning!
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/analyst-wells-fargo-to-show-120-b..."

Don't worry; they're just lowering expectations so the $30b won't look so bad-


Get rid of your credit card/airline points asap, people.


"We need to get rid of poor performing home to match supply with demand. "

If everything built in the past 5 years is totally unsuitable for human habitation due to chinese drywall made from unscrubbed coal, that could be the excuse we need... or at least a start. of course, only the SE has slimy enough weather to make these defects manifest in the first few years of use, while parts of the SW are so dry that it could take much longer, and the smell will probably be ascribed to neighbors' meth cooking for at least the first few months


I've had my CC card companies call my CELL PHONE while out in the boonies... "Mr Dryfly there has been some very strange charge behavior lately... very large increase in balance... do you have your card, is everything okay?" I reply "Yup - been on the road for 72 hours out and back on I 80 and down I 35 W... all over hell and back. Glad you noticed." I then thank them. My nightmare is I leave the damned thing on the hood of my car while making a motel res at the Boondocks Truckstop and then drive off and don't realize it until two great plains states later.

They can call me anytime.


steelhead - If you read the fine print of the 07 C report - worst case assumptions of some derviative stuff was a 1.3T dollar exposure...I quote "managment does not believe" the worst could happen...


"Concluded, there are some securitized CC receipts that are gonna turn TOXIC at some point."

Byz,
I wonder who holds the other side of the CDS on those bets?


A foreclosure sale was cancelled (long story but bottom line, hopelessly underwater). Sale scheduled.

Then cancelled!! We get a letter asking to deal. I respond. No answer. My guy calls & I write another letter. Seems that the caretaker guy he was letting live there for free needs to move 'cause he can't find a job, and my guy doesn't want to be responsible for an empty house. So I write again asking for terms or reschedule the sale. I threaten to file a deed in lieu of foreclosure!! Probably not effective, 'cause not delivered. Anyhow, this has a last days of Pompeii flavor. If they don't want the property, why not negotiate something. If they do, foreclose already. They prefer to stay in lala land.

lawyerliz


Dawg - why on earth would you need a " pressure autoclave"? iydmma


Many years ago, on a business trip to Switzerland, I attempted to pay a hotel bill with American Express travellers checks. I was informed, in no uncertain terms, that the only appropriate payment method was CASH.

Fortunately, a Swiss associate had sufficient cash and forked it over. I asked him why the problem had occurred. He told me that, in Switzerland, credit cards and "checks" of any kind were viewed with disdain. In Swiss eyes, it meant you were poor, living on borrowed money. I learned a valuable lesson.

Times have changed.

I guess.


I was going through the 2009 Amex points redemption catalog and quite a few companies you could use your points on, had gone out of business.


mp - Did you get Swiss account all set up on one trip?


Cinco-X (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 5:49pm.

Byz,
I wonder who holds the other side of the CDS on those bets?

I don't think you wonder that at all.


mp,

The swiss were a**holes, and now they are taking it in the a**. I like what I am seeing..

Evil


"Maybe even a pressure autoclave."

Make one. 500-gallon propane tank. We did.

Just be sure to install it in its own concrete building with a light roof.

Just in case.


NEW POST at Calculated Risk.

Ways to view:

Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR

CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/

Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/

For live chat, and the new Mishbot feature, as well as notice of new posts on other blogs, join us in IRC.

To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.

Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.

Feed back via bobn


Hmmm, CR hasn't informed us of the latest total of admitted debts from the confessional for quite a while.

Would he be so kind as to update us??

I find the 120Bil very easy to believe.

lawyerliz


Some Investor guy, thanks for the reasoned and readable analysis.

Municipalities and school districts can only be so competent -- they are in most cases the slaves of politics. They will make decisions that hurt their long-term survival to fund the hobbyhorse of some faction with influence on the board.

School district boards are the worst -- the playpen/pigpen of public policy. I used to interview local council/school board candidates on public access TV. One of the school board candidates tried to get me thrown off the air because she thought I gave a "more favorable" interview to one of her competitors. Just that kind of crap.


"The summons, if approved by a federal judge, would compel First Data to identify American clients who, through credit cards, debit cards and other financial processing arrangements, "may have diverted unreported income offshore or received unreported income from undisclosed offshore sources or have taken improper deductions or credits or have failed to withhold tax on certain payments made offshore," all going back to..."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/business/16tax.html?_r=1&ref=global

mp - use cash!


"Cinco-X (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 5:49pm.

Byz,
I wonder who holds the other side of the CDS on those bets?

I don't think you wonder that at all."

I guess by that you mean that "we" hold them. Funny, yet sad,...


You know, it might be good for us all to have several identities. You never know when someone will think something we did was bad to extract money out of us.

lawyerliz


What sort of default numbers would it take for the credit card companies to go belly-up? AMF

I think a lot of the issue is that they are now holding the CC receivables on their balance sheet. no more conduit for ABS. now they actually want the debt to perform....


REally wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 2:51pm.
Dawg - why on earth would you need a " pressure autoclave"? iydmma

No, I won't repeat the trite "but then I'd have to kill you" type snark. Aerospace/automotive/transportation structures and components. I can design IIHS or FAA acceptable "shells" for experimental vehicles and may need to make some proof of concepts.


Son of mp says the following:

@dawg
Look at plans for homebuilt electronic lead screws for lathes. You're halfway there. Substitute a toothed belt for the lead screw and a fabricated steel frame with pillow blocks for the lathe. Figure out how to program your return cycles, then you're there.

Much cheaper than an $80K plus winding machine and the same thing, more or less, without a brand name plastered on it.


REally wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 2:54pm.
mp - Did you get Swiss account all set up on one trip?

Think about that question. If "mp" had set one up would he answer? Would he answer honestly? If he said "yes" wouldn't you think less of him?

And let's be honest. It doesn't matter any more. Paper trail financing is worldwide.


"Just be sure to install it in its own concrete building with a light roof.

Just in case. "

MP, you owe me a keyboard!


Much cheaper than an $80K plus winding machine and the same thing, more or less, without a brand name plastered on it.

Yes, but not cheaper than a 3 1/2 axis winding machine for $10k. Have you seen recent auction prices?


AXP numbers out..

Annualized net chargeoff: 9.7% in March from 9.3% in February

Stock ramped.

"Not as horrible as you could conceive" appears to have legs for now.


Comrade Terry (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 3:04pm.
"Just be sure to install it in its own concrete building with a light roof.
Just in case. "
MP, you owe me a keyboard!

The "funny" thing was my reaction was 'of course I'd contain the vessel.' I didn't laugh. It was like hearing my mom say 'be careful.'


Dawg, I've been following machine tool auctions, but not for composite equipment.

The price you relate doesn't surprise and will likely get better. Just depends on how badly you need it. We're just saying consider an open source retrofit with parts from places like Surplus Center. That way, when it breaks, you're not beholden to Fanuc at $200/hour and $1K boards.

In the end, it's whatever floats your boat. Good luck with it.


Oh, and a "special request." I might be interested in an exotic machine tool. Ever seen a tape laying/winding machine for composite structures? Either mandrel winding or table layup. Maybe even a pressure autoclave.

:: ::

I know EXACTLY what you are talking about - I saw the mandrel type being used at 'very large avionics company formerly headquartered in Minneapolis'... but that was YEARS ago before they drank the Jack Welch Kool-Aid prior to an aborted merger. Decades actually. Used for making fuel tanks for small missiles - they spun off that unit. Can't say I've seen any autoclaves like that though.

Haven't seen anything like that lately - personally I'm on the hunt for cheap high speed swiss turn screw machines - long story but if we get the program then my recession is over. Well unless the OEM goes tits up... I guess its never really 'over' is it?


Capital One pays me every month to use their cash back card. I pay it off twice a month and cash in rewards once or twice a month.

I am in their wallet drinking their milkshake. Wink


Do "cheap" and "Swiss turn" go together?


mp wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 5:29pm.

Do "cheap" and "Swiss turn" go together?

Today they do - that's how bad it is out there. Then cost to make one of them and the price they sell for don't have to match in the short run.

Plus everything is relative.

BTW a buddy of mine went to an auction near Chicago lately and told me they were selling horizontal CNC machining centers WITH PALLET CHANGE AND TWO MATCHED TOMBSTONES for around $10K... somehow the Bridgeport in the garage just doesn't seem like enough anymore.


Haven't seen anything like that lately - personally I'm on the hunt for cheap high speed swiss turn screw machines - long story but if we get the program then my recession is over. Well unless the OEM goes tits up... I guess its never really 'over' is it?

Small world. My desk paperweight is 69A10002-28. The wing pivot bolt for the American SST. I can roll you all the precision threaded fasteners (grade beyond eight) you want. The high speed stuff is a bit different world. I'll keep an eye peeled. There's still a contingent of mfgs in SoCal with the stuff you want.


There's still a contingent of mfgs in SoCal with the stuff you want. - RD

:: ::

I know - I was looking at the 'want ads' and there are a lot of used citizens and tournos for sale right now in S Cal... at least as many as in and around 'Detroit'. Some how that isn't a bullish indicator.


dryfly (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 3:48pm.
There's still a contingent of mfgs in SoCal with the stuff you want. - RD
:: ::
I know - I was looking at the 'want ads' and there are a lot of used citizens and tournos for sale right now in S Cal... at least as many as in and around 'Detroit'. Some how that isn't a bullish indicator.

We've got a lot of legacy aerospace. The issue is that a lot of it is the last of the owner operated small shops. The value of the name/client list is gone and it is just the equipment at liquidation. Do centerless grinders even have scrap value?


One of the risks possibly worth taking for people with high credit card balances is to let them become charge-offs. It'll ruin your credit report for 7 years, but in all likelihood these credit card companies will probably go out of business well before then anyway, and then there won't be anyone around with evidence of the debt if you decide to dispute it on your credit report.

I'm just sayin'....


I've been looking in detail at local government finances in California, and it's far uglier than almost anyone realizes.

Far too much of the economy was based on mortgage equity withdrawal, ex-urban housing construction, and a finance/mortgage/real estate industry that was absolutely unsustainable.

Expenditures for local governments have a built-in annual increase of around 6% a year based on union contracts, pension contributions, and unfunded liabilities for things like deteriorating infrastructure and retiree medical costs.

Every source of income is plummeting, including sales tax, income tax, franchise fees, interest income on reserves, business license taxes. Property tax on homes purchased prior to 2000 is stable and grows by 2% a year, but anything purchased since 2000 will be reassessed at a value that decreases every year, making property tax decline.

Cities that have reserves are burning through them quickly, and California's 2/3 requirement for any tax increase effectively prevents any increases.

The biggest problem will come do when local agencies have to start making much larger payments into PERS and STRS to fund pensions, and they will need to do that with a declining number of employees.

First to fail will be the exurbs, where real unemployment (U6) is in the 20% to 30% range, with agriculture suffering badly from the drought.

Very few of the electeds see what's barreling down at them.

They all see some recovery, but without jobs, what spurs the recovery.

The stimulus package, massive as it is, barely manages to make up half the losses.


Well, just my opinion, but this all stems from the fact that the Treasury is borrowing on behalf of citizens and giving it all to the banks (instead of using it to pay down the debt of citizens).

@rob dawg - paper trail financing? Offshore, the money is counted by hand because the machines are a bit too mechanical and auditable.

@lawyer liz - bad times are bad for every living being. An old TV ad said : Eat your darts, dear?

@Joanna - things don't fail - they get restructured. In a clean scenario - productive assets get sold to productive companies to make them stronger. The waste becomes a potential asset - until it becomes a productive asset. Your point is a good one - nothing good will get destroyed by a bankruptcy restructuring.

@ REally - you kept somebody on the phone for 40 minutes? wow. You must impress yourself. But - hey - aren't cheap scams by the banks that waste resources for no good purpose the problem? How about spending 40 minutes sending emails to Congress asking for them to stop telemarketing? Genius.

@everybody - sorry, it's probably just me - 93 comments and not one useful piece of information about how to deal with credit card debt? Stop me if I'm getting too technical...

So, Calculated Risk is producing first class posts. Perhaps it is just me but I would be happier about the comments here if I had found 93 pieces of useful information. I didn't. Just as a style note : I try to make my blog useful, fun and inspiring. I would be delighted if every comment here (because I read the comments) was also useful, fun and inspiring.

Where there's life, there's hope? Oh - and the fun part? Why can't Geithner call 911? Because he can't find the 11. So there.


I'd just like to comment that the second derivative of the bear market rally is decreasing.


Capital one is choking on its own vomit. You can't trust them in ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM TO behave consistently. They screw with you not only through Machiavellian intent, but also sheer incompetence. When I finally cancelled it took months of me screaming at them. They never officially admitted my account was at zero or sent me a final statement. Always assume they are thinking of the most far-fetched way of destroying your credit. If it's oily and bad they are thinking of it!

You think you're in the clear...then they hit me with some 30 cent fine they said was in my original agreement. They VERY EFFICIENTLY SENT THIS TO COLLECTIONS, and screwed the credit on my other cards which put me into universal default. I immediately challenged with the Credit agencies, and now SIX months after all this I'm seeing the light.

1. CAPITAL ONE CANNOT BE TRUSTED TO DO ANYTHING BUT SCREW YOU

2. CAPITAL ONE IS AN EXTORTION OUTFIT THAT WORKS WITH THE SANCTION OF THE US GOVT.

3. THEY WILL DO ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING TO PUSH YOU INTO UNIVERSAL DEFAULT IF YOU DON"T PLAY WITH THEM. I ASSUME THEY WISH TO SCREW THEIR COMPETITORS.

IF YOU ENJOY UNIVERSAL DEFAULT STAY WITH CAPITAL ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Done