Comments for "Philly Fed: Manufacturing "contracted less severely" this Month"


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Terminal velocity reached; now we just need a parachute.

- Nemo


Uh, yeah, i'll have a Philly Fed samwich with cowfee.


No Parachute!!! You bounce back stronger with higher impact speed....Innocent


I have biz buds in western PA - they tell me overall it is bad but not worse. Sounds like that sums up the Fed Philly Report. Sounds like your 'L Shaped Recovery'... w/ recovery defined as not getting worse.


Bleeding to death more slowly is not a sign of healing. [ suks to be short too early ]

.............................

If you don't take your profits, someone else will.


So this means the contraction is slowing? Second derivative looks better?

If I understand the graph correctly, it does mean manufacturing continues to contract?


World War 2 was the glory days for surviving falls from airplanes without a parachute, as combatants on both sides got so very many chances to prove their skills.

Something like 20 airmen lived to tell the tale.


from last tread..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8001800.stm

and here the OT cracker of the week!!!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/essex/8001310.stm

coming to a Town near you soon!!!


So this means the contraction is slowing? Second derivative looks better?

Yes but only in the Philly Region... not the major mfg center it was say 50-100 years ago.


The containment has nowhere to spread.


dryfly, thanks! I've wondered about that, but didn't ask somehow.

CR, is there a map showing the country divided into the regions these various Feds issue reportage for? I'll look at the Fed site, but probably you know already?


A glimmer. The index hints at the possibility that this may only be a severe recession.


Breaking: Fund Manager Pleads Guilty in New York Pension Probe

From Bloomberg:

Barrett Wissman, a Dallas hedge fund manager, pleaded guilty to securities fraud as part of an investigation of corruption at New York's $122 billion pension fund, state officials said. Wissman, 46, an executive of HFV Asset Management LP, also agreed to a $12 million settlement as part of the probe of illegal kickbacks to arrange pension-fund investments for hedge funds and private-equity firms, according to New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Today, Cuomo announced charges against former New York State Liberal Party Chairman Ray Harding as part of the two-year-old investigation.

Wissman and Hardng are new names in the investigation. The original charges were made against former New York Deputy Comptroller David Loglisci and political adviser Hank Morris.

"Wissman is a witness on this case," Cuomo said, who added that "There are further charges coming out of this scheme." Wissman, a former board member of the Dallas Symphony Orchestra, will now get a chance to sing.

As for Cuomo, I think he is going after Carlyle. Get your popcorn ready.

According to the original report out of Cuomo's office:

Over twenty investment deals were allegedly tainted by the defendants' kickback schemes and fraudulent self-dealing, including the following:

...Five investments involving The Carlyle Group, one of the world's largest private equity funds, totaling approximately $730 million in capital commitments from the State pension fund.

The latest report has almost doubled that number. According to Bloomberg, Carlyle won $1.3 billion of business from the pension fund and it is cooperating with the investigation, which means that Carlyle is trying to figure out who would be a good fall guy--Someone that doesn't know enough about the rest of Carlyle's operations to hurt Carlyle. These things will get very tricky if Carlyle can't get to Cuomo.

Other firms reportedly under scrutiny include Access/NY European Fund, Aldus New York Emerging Fund, GKM/NY Venture Capital Fund, Paladin Homeland Security Fund and Pequot Private Equity Partners Fund.


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - The insurer American International Group Inc. may be near a deal to sell its car insurance unit to rival Zurich Financial Services AG, according to a published report Thursday.
The sale of 21st Century Insurance could be announced as early as Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
An AIG spokesman declined to comment. Zurich Financial spokesman Angel Serna in Z
Jurich said the company "doesn't comment on rumors and speculation."
The price tag for the auto insurance business could be between $1.5 billion and $2 billion according to the newspaper report. The deal could strengthen Zurich's hand in the U.S. auto insurance business. Zurich owns Los Angeles-based insurer Farmers Group Inc.
If AIG sells the unit it could be the biggest deal the insurance giant has been able to agree since announcing plans to sell assets to help pay back the government.



dryfly - does that not include rust-belt-ish areas like Pittsburgh? PA really does seem to be two separate states, with one foot in the midwest and one east coast/seaboard. It would seem more cohesive if the middle weren't a big never-never-land.

Really, just because the 2nd Deriv. is at an inflection point, it doesn't mean things are looking up all that much.

(edit) ps - Ok, in the time it took to post that comment, you posted the map - muchas gracias!

(edit2) pps - clearly the Fed sees PA the same way!


Way o/t

The Germans are always good for a little wordplay, and a parachute there is called a:Fallschirm, meaning "falling umbrella".


So we've hit terminal velocity? Maybe even a little updraft?

I feel much better now....

~Wilie E Coyote


NEW YORK (CBS/AP) ―
Click to enlarge
Gregg Geller

1 of 1
Close

http://wcbstv.com/local/ground.zero.wtc.2.986303.html

The owners of ground zero, locked in a new round of heated talks with a private developer about how and when to build office towers at the World Trade Center site, have proposed indefinitely putting off two of three planned skyscrapers until the real estate market recovers, officials familiar with the negotiations say.

One analysis prepared for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey predicts World Trade Center developer Larry Silverstein wouldn't be able to finish building all three towers he plans for decades, with the last tower finished by 2030.

Silverstein and the Port Authority have been talking on and off for months about rewriting a 3-year-old agreement that gives the developer rights to build three out of five towers planned at the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attack site.

In a failing economy where developers have found it impossible to obtain financing for new projects, Silverstein last fall asked the Port to back financing for two of his towers, three officials told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are confidential.

The Port Authority about a week ago agreed to back about $800 million in financing for one tower already under construction, where the Port Authority has agreed to lease space once it's completed.

The other two towers shouldn't be built until there is enough demand for commercial office space downtown, the Port has said.

An analysis of Silverstein's plan by the Cushman & Wakefield real estate brokerage projected that while two of Silverstein's towers could be built by 2013, a third would not be built until 2030 and fully leased until 2036. A second tower that hasn't been built yet wouldn't be fully leased until 2025, the brokerage says.


Byz--awesome smackdown of the insect on last thread. Thanks!


(Or edzachary what Nemo said) Sick


CNBC (Erin the airhead) "Commercial Real Estate on verge of recovery"


Thanks, RC.


Is the money being sent to the banks to modify mortgages even being used for that purpose? Is it just another backdoor move to prop up the balance sheet just like the FDIC loan programs?


More American manufacturing may go this direction to avoid the shackles of unions.

http://www.freep.com/article/20090416/BUSINESS01/904160419/1014/BUSINESS...


I was reading last night's writes, and there was a rather urgent plea for us to find Jesus.

Somebody call the milk companies and get his mug on a carton of cow juice, so we can act as if we care about his whereabouts.


AMF: No Need for that, i heard rumours he will show up soon Innocent


CNBC (Erin the airhead) "Commercial Real Estate on verge of recovery"

-------------

That is truly F'ed up...I just went to deposit my payroll, driving down the parkway up and down from one side to the other, empty large corporate office and commercial office space available...oh and large banners that read

" Going out of Business sale "...up yours Erin you lying Bitch!!


"The region's manufacturing sector contracted less severely this month ... "

Woooooooo! Hoooooooooooooooo!

LESS SEVERELY! Kaching! Second half recovery here we come.

Nostrovia,


Elmo is having his way with Erin right now. Justice done.


Erin go rah, Erin got big bra, men all ga ga.


CRE on verge of recovery? Surely she didn't say that. If this is so, I really wouldn't do her.


what a luck i grow and smoke Dope!! otherwise it wouldnt be funny anymore...


looks like Elmo is fighting with Kermit to day...


Abreast her officer, she made an arresting statement!


And how about the third derivative? Is the change of the change of the change changing for the better? There sure is a lot of straw-grasping desperation going around.


Just how far into the depths of black comedy can this farce go?

It looks to have legs...


And breaking news for all you lucky doomy gourmands in the Spokane area:

"Now, with the ground-squirrel mating season almost on top of them, the parkies have decided to take the gloves off. Rather than merely squirt poison gas into the tunnels of the marmot menace, they will inject a scientific blend of fuel and air. This will then be detonated in a devastating underground blast, instantly incinerating the nefarious squirrels"

Fuel aired BBQ'd squirrel. Now there's a treat.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/16/exploding_marmots/

Not back to your regularly scheduled disection of agitprop "good econ news and green shoots".

Nostrovia,


For those who can read Russian:

http://newsru.com/russia/16apr2009/vybil.html


Misean, they just disrupt future food supply.. what marooons....


wally wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 7:52am.
And how about the third derivative?

In engineering the 3rd derivative is called "jerk." Keep that in mind when you hear Larry & Erin using it to call a bottom.


Carl Spackler: [preparing to dynamite the marmot tunnel] In the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre, 'Au revoir, marmot'.


read a good quote:

"the only thing that people get from getting there hands at bottom is stinky fingers"

sorry if it is old Innocent


Anyone with any inside juice on C?


That is truly F'ed up...I just went to deposit my payroll, driving down the parkway up and down from one side to the other, empty large corporate office and commercial office space available...oh and large banners that read

" Going out of Business sale "...up yours Erin you lying Bitch!!

Among the empty commercial buildings around here looking in vain for a tenant is the former local office of the Chicago Association of REALTORS®.

The old signs are still on the building--cheers me up every time I drive by.


CNBC (Erin the airhead) "Commercial Real Estate on verge of recovery"

LOL! Just as i read this:

General Growth Properties Inc. filed the biggest real estate bankruptcy in U.S. history after amassing $27 billion in debt during an acquisition spree that turned it into the second-largest shopping mall owner.

The owner of Boston's Faneuil Hall and the South Street Seaport in New York City ended a seven-month effort today to refinance its debt. The company listed $29.5 billion in assets and debts of about $27.3 billion in the Chapter 11 filing. General Growth will continue operating its more than 200 properties.


I was just in the Phoenix area and took some time to check out the residential markets.

The housing stupidity over the past several years is front and center. Everyone knows about the losses on the low end as they are hitting the banks. But a lot of wealthy people are sitting on enormous unrealized losses. I foresee increasing jingle mail at the high end, even amongst those that can actually afford the mortgages on their properties. Seriously. It makes eCONomic sense to dump the losses on the banks and the government and buy the house down the street for 1/3 the price.

Consider. Many of the "higher" end communities have houses on the market for ~ $3 million bucks. However, banks are trying to unload similar properties in the same neighborhod for < $1 million. No joke. And within a mile or so are several "lower" end neighborhoods with beautiful houses listed at ~ $400K. Something has to give.

No way are "free" markets that inefficient. F.U. Greenspan.


"Byz--awesome smackdown of the insect on last thread. Thanks! "

You're an idiot.

"..... I don't think I ever heard of it.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/06/fbi_terror_watc.html"

So you suggest that we don't keep a watchlist of terrorist. Isn't that what the vaunted 9-11 commission suggested? For cryin' out loud, you'd complain if they did, and you'd complain if they didn't?

"They are working on an MOU so they can actually get their database straight....."

So they realize there's a problem and they're trying to fix it. When you deal with a large group of people, rather than just spouting off anonymously on some internet blog, it takes time and effort to get it right, and if they were to throw away the data now, it wouldn't be there when they are finally able to use it. Do you think any of this has changed since Obama took office? Of course not.

"Anyway, you're engaging in a rhetorical retreat into specificity. "

And you're broad brushing Republicans for things EVERYONE has used in the past, and will probably continue ti use int he future.

"Not the first Republican insect mouthpart I've heard chirp, not even the first educated and articulate apologist."

At least I'm educated, and don't go off on the deep end because someone else holds a different view than I. BTW, never voting for a particular political party doesn't constitute going off the deep end. Folks usually vote the way their parents did, just as I do.

"As for putting folks on lists, that goes WAAAAAAAAY back.....
So do slavery, tax farming and the practice of pederasty. Their antiquity does not recommend these practices. Proscription shares this trait."

I didn't say that it did recommend it, nor do I . I just pointed out that you were the pot calling the kettle black. You seem to have no problem "engaging in a rhetorical retreat into specificity ", but seem to be irritated by my stating some facts that don't concur with your world view.

"Remember the lists of Communists from the '30s compiled by JEH that was used by McCarthy in the '50s? .....They were used for roundups before the 30s."

Your point? Did that make them okay. Or are you just trying to show us "how smart you are?" Get your panties out of a wad please.

"My Dad (in the '60s) always warned me about organizations like the KKK, and never to get involved unless you wanted to be on a FBI list of "subversive groups"

And wasn't that smart policy. They got a "tune out" society of people too smart to get involved! Just what the vested interests wanted! Now you leap to defend it! Guess how you got to this impasse? Follow your footsteps back into the past."

Huh!? The spittle must be affecting your keyboard.

""and then there were the Clintons in the '90s who had the FBI files on most Republican politicians in DC stacked up in the Whitehouse basement in the hands of a known political operative back '90s. Careful where you aim that paint gun Wink

Yeah, that's me, ardent Clintonite. However, don't think that invoking Billary clears you of the behavior after 9/11. It will neither be forgotten or forgiven that anyone who spoke out against the Executive was called a traitor or that the Executive privately declared himself king due to exigent circumstances."

I don't need to be cleared of ANY behavior. You need to grow up, and I don't care if you're +60.


burnside, as dryfly notes, the Philly Fed used to be more important (re: manufacturing). But it is still one of the better local surveys.

I like their state survey!

best to all.

Calculated Risk



I see Green Shoots everywhere. Too bad they're synthetic.


Thought for the day:

We are all well aware of the newspapers dying off, like so many Dodo birds...

But could the same thing be happening to both tv & radio, but we just aren't cognizant of it, because it's not as obvious?

The tiresome troika all owed their existence to advertising, which obviously is going away @ warp speed.



Anyone else notice something weird about Erin Burnett's profile? Straight on she's quite a looker, but from the side she looks off. I swear her nose has grown. Must be from all the lying.


AMF,

"Carl Spackler"

My thoughts as well.

nades,

"General Growth"

That's name's got some potential.

Nostrovia,


"Contractions are the periodic tightening and relaxing... It is difficult to predict when true contractions will begin."

http://www.babies.sutterhealth.org/laboranddelivery/labor/ld_contractns....

Not a good year for the Generals... Shorting 50 shares of Google at the end of the day


"Erinocchio"


Byz Ruins,

Just read your delightful mauling of the insect chirper last post. Thanks. Made my day.


legs like you like them....

nothing to see here folk, recession over, move along now, that's a good boy, Paddy.


Byzantine_Ruins (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:07am.
New Railfax up:
http://railfax.transmatch.com/#TotCharts

West Coast particularly bad. Notice however how generally everywhere the seasonal traffic besides being lower is not lasting as long.

For those watching lumber those are tons, with the price collapse that's a monster dollar value drop.


Angry Saver, you are exactly right, and, in fact, I'm considering doing what you say myself. The foreclosed house across the street is similar to our model and is going for 35% less than what we owe on ours. And....they still can't sell it. I'm tempted to make an offer for 50% less than what we owe on ours and dump my current mortgage rather than let it go to the Indians/Pakistanis who seem to be the only ones able to cash in on these great deals.


The adventures of Erinocchio, and her long knows


""Byz--awesome smackdown of the insect on last thread. Thanks! "

You're an idiot."

Chirp chirp.

Someone hit a nerve.


Way OT...

Has Congress recently raised the cap on the National Debt? Wasn't it $11.5T when they were debating TARP I?

Seems like we should have reached that number by now, although I guess the junk on the Feb's balance sheet doesn't count.

thanks


Well i would imagine the markets will rally on this. But, wallstreet should consider that it already as servere image problem with the public. It going up while people are still losing their jobs and homes is not going to improve it.

If this keeps happening, one of these days people coming out of the NYSE are going to face an angry mob of thousands of unemployed,homeless people, who see them as the problem.


I'm tempted to make an offer for 50% less than what we owe on ours and dump my current mortgage rather than let it go to the Indians/Pakistanis who seem to be the only ones able to cash in on these great deals.

Go for it man. These are freedoms that we are granted in the USSA


Erin's a two face (Seinfeld reference). The profile ain't her best view. Reverse cowgirl, however...


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gannett Co., the largest newspaper publisher in the U.S., reported a 60 percent decline in first-quarter profit Thursday and said the decline in its advertising revenue is accelerating.

Gannett, which publishes USA Today and dozens of other daily newspapers, earned $77.4 million, or 34 cents per share, in the first three months of the year. In the same quarter in 2008, McLean, Va.-based Gannett earned $192 million, 84 cents per share.

Adjusting for one-time losses and gains, earnings came to 25 cents per share. On that basis, analysts had expected 24 cents, according to Thomson Reuters.

That was enough to push Gannett shares up 27 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $3.76 in morning trading.


Wall*Street's down 17-2, going into the bottom of the 9th, but it looks good because the entire trading floor has rally hats on, which has got to portend that it's not over until it's over.

(the fat lady is warming up)


Looks like inventory may correct for a while yet. Though at a slower pace. /snark

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ISRATIO


A $27 Billion bankruptcy and the market barely notices.... sweet.


Maybe I'll just dump my current morgage and just squat in the house across the street. Why pay a mortgage? Obligation is no longer relevant. Credit scores are meaningless. The message is clear. If your not irresponsible, your irresponsible, or, responsibility is irresponsible, and irresponsibility is responsible.


I remember when a billion was an ungodly high number, the high priest of Arabic Numerals, seldom uttered.

(flashback from the 90's)


I'd stop paying CC bills before the mortgage, Borocco


Seeking Alpha 11:15 AM All those guys on the message boards saying they're stocking up on guns and ammo - well, they are.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123984046627223159.html

.............................

If you don't take your profits, someone else will.


Anyone else notice something weird about Erin Burnett's profile? Straight on she's quite a looker, but from the side she looks off. I swear her nose has grown. Must be from all the lying.

Apparently you look at different attributes when you see her in profile than I do.


I so love hope. Franks's a Wiener. I knew the outcome of this the day they passed it.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103148855

Last summer, Congress passed the Hope for Homeowners Act, setting aside $300 billion to help people refinance into more affordable mortgages. But the program has been a total flop.

When it was first introduced, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the program could help 400,000 people keep their homes.

But more than six months after the program was launched, the Federal Housing Administration says only one homeowner has made it all the way through the government program and received the FHA guarantee.


Full Stop wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 11:13am.

Ya', ya' where is he now:
* Cinco-X (member)
* Tom in AZ (member)
* bobnbot (member)
* Assume Crash Po... (member)
* kcoop (member)
* anonymous1 (member)
* popeye (member)
* Gavshire Hathaway (member)
* unearthly (member)
* daveinsv (member)


How many, no matter the extreme printing or empty credit creation, would use stimulated new money to purchase another house or mortgage, acquire a new vehicle, buy more highly complex debt instruments, invest in further commercial real estate, expand capacity in their industry, or increase their debt/income ratio?

Because if not, there is no way, NO WAY, that this contraction can be arrested; let alone new expansion begun.

The only growth industry now is in economic statistic manipulations, spurious accountancy, MSM doublespeak, lying by power players as if they really believe it.

Lying, hiding, and using counterfeit means to purchase time at the expense of deeper debt. Deliberate confidence plays to entice the unwary into bloodletting is the play of the day.

We have stripped the long future by pulling forward for present consumption. 30:1 leverage means either (a) 30 years of presumptive future earnings have been exchanged at discount for immediate gratification or (b) 30 individuals have been stripped of a year's gain to nourish 1 of their fellows.

Having consumed all present production and suckered our creditors to devour our futures as well, we are left with nothing but cannibalizing our moral and ethical base in order to spin fairy tale images of what we are and are to become.

Reality is being imposed. Society is going insane trying to believe they are something which they are not i.e. wealthy and good.


As Rome melts....we get Pirates and Teabags. The show must go on. Bread and Circuses for the sheep.


Borocco Mama

"the Federal Housing Administration says only one homeowner has made it all the way through the government program and received the FHA guarantee"

does he get the full 300 billion?? and if yes is he a senior employee at GS?? just asking...


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j,
+1 !!

.............................

If you don't take your profits, someone else will.


great post, J


There's a great play for those of you that are credit card deadbeats that have your wealth in non-$ denominated assets...

Firstly, as perverse as it sounds, your days as a credit card customer might be numbered. Because you pay your bills promptly every month, they can't make any money off of you, aside from the 2-3% vig from the retailer. As their default rate is closer to 7-8%, it's academic Sherlock.

Here's what you do, what I did.

Run up your balance, and only pay the minimum each month. I'm getting dinged for a few hundred bucks in interest rate charges, which shows I have potential, as far as the credit card companies are concerned, a worthy customer. I could pay off my balance if I so desired, but I know the $ is gonna get whacked, so i'm just waiting it out.

I expect to pay about 1/3rd of what my bill is currently, in the not too distant future, when we dance the hyperinflation tango vis a vis buggering the buck.


J,

So many assets are so crappy, the banks can't unload them without admitting they are insolvent. We're plum out of greater fools. Apparently, even fools are liited in supply.

Unfortunately, we're not out of bad ideas. The point of Geithner's PPIP is to allow the "private" market to buy toxic crap with leveraged public money and at almost no risk.

We'll all be eating that sh%t sandwich in a year or two. No risk = free option = guaranteed loss.

What a sham!

GRRRRR!


Cinco-X (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:29am.

"Full Stop wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 11:13am.

Ya', ya' where is he now:
* Cinco-X (member)
* Tom in AZ (member)
* bobnbot (member)
* Assume Crash Po... (member)
* kcoop (member)
* anonymous1 (member)
* popeye (member)
* Gavshire Hathaway (member)
* unearthly (member)
* daveinsv (member)"

What's your point?


Can Optimism Alone Spur Recovery?

To view our impartial assessment, please visit:

www.TheValueatRisk.blogspot.com


Done