I am starting to see more and more commercial projects hit the foreclosure rolls.
lots of see thrus off the 101 in Sunnyvale
OT but probably an all-purpose post around here -
Hate taxes and government?:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/215/gallery/65990-a66308-t3.html
Pavel Chichikov
I would be better off long CRE. SRS has certainly been a dog.
Not to worry. CRE always lags RE, and we know that we have a bottom in RE, so CRE's bottom is just around the corner.
I'm glimmering with hope these days.
"
You are starting to see more and more commercial projects hit the foreclosure rolls.
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com
"
CR did not post one of his charts of RE vs CRE, but as I recall, they indicate that the CRE downturn usually peaks AFTER the end of a recession, so this is probably a good thing, though it'd be nice if it had already peaked. I guess we're waiting for the fever to break, and hoping it doesn't kill us.
i hate taxes too, but i love good Healthcare, cheap public transport, good roads, motivated Police etc, etc. even more...
pay and complain if it fails, but dont pay and complain in advance... 
"Not to worry. CRE always lags RE, and we know that we have a bottom in RE, so CRE's bottom is just around the corner.
I'm glimmering with hope these days."
You were more concise and to the point, so you beat me to it 
CR, is there a chart of commercial vacancy rates vs rents or rent increases? Seems like it would be interesting?
In So.SF some of the new projects have occupants, but the parking lots are always half empty.
"pay and complain if it fails, but dont pay and complain in advance..."
But with the second alternative, I get to keep my money!?
But, but, but, Erin says CRE is rebounding!
i hate taxes too, but i love good Healthcare, cheap public transport, good roads, motivated Police etc, etc. even more... - Y
Ditto that.
CR should start posting with fill-in-the-blank templates.
ahhh
SRS is killing me lately...wtf?
The following is the theme song of the next teabag protest.
I wish I was in the land of cotton,
old times there are not forgotten,
Look away, look away, look away, Dixie land.
In Dixie land where I was born in, early on a frosty mornin',
Look away, look away, look away, Dixie land.
Chorus:
Then I wish I was in Dixie, hooray! Hooray!
In Dixie land I'll take my stand, to live and die in Dixie,
Away, away, away down south in Dixie,
Away, away, away down south in Dixie.
There's a great play for those of you that are credit card deadbeats that have your wealth in non-$ denominated assets...
Firstly, as perverse as it sounds, your days as a credit card customer might be numbered. Because you pay your bills promptly every month, they can't make any money off of you, aside from the 2-3% vig from the retailer. As their default rate is closer to 7-8%, it's academic Sherlock.
Here's what you do, what I did.
Run up your balance, and only pay the minimum each month. I'm getting dinged for a few hundred bucks in interest rate charges, which shows I have potential, as far as the credit card companies are concerned, a worthy customer. I could pay off my balance if I so desired, but I know the $ is gonna get whacked, so i'm just waiting it out.
I expect to pay about 1/3rd of what my bill is currently, in the not too distant future, when we dance the hyperinflation tango vis a vis buggering the buck.
re taxes: it would be better to complain on what it is spend instead off rambling against them in general!!! just my 2cts
(btw way i live in Europe and taxes are crushing , but still you get some service out of it)
NEW YORK (AP) - Newsprint maker AbitibiBowater Inc. on Thursday filed for bankruptcy court protection in Canada and the U.S. after deciding there was no other way it could deal with its more than $6 billion debt.
Company operations will continue as normal during its restructuring, spokesman Seth Kursman said in a telephone interview, adding that overseas facilities are not affected by the bankruptcy filings.
No layoffs, closures or pay cuts were announced with the bankruptcy, Kursman added, though such moves may be forthcoming as the restructuring progresses.
AbitibiBowater, created in 2007 in a combination of U.S.-based Bowater and Canada's Abitibi-Consolidated, also said it arranged with Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. and Avenue Management LLC for debtor-in-possession financing of about $200 million.
"The company concluded that there are no viable alternatives to its previously announced proposed refinancing ... and as a result has determined that the best course of action is to pursue its overall restructuring under Court supervision in the United States and Canada," AbitibiBowater said in a statement.
Early Thursday morning the New York Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange, having been alerted by the company to its bankruptcy filings, halted trading in the stock, which closed Wednesday at 53 cents.
In the past 52 weeks, shares have ranged from 24 cents to $14.89. The company's current market capitalization is $30.5 million.
Besides the global recession, the pulp and paper maker faced a subzero global credit environment plus the recent expropriation of a $300 million asset by a Canadian province.
On top of those challenges, it has faced collapsing demand for its newsprint as advertisers abandon newspapers for the Internet. In the U.S., newspapers have been cutting back on newsprint usage in response to rising prices, primarily by trimming the width of their pages. Declines in advertising and circulation have also resulted in fewer pages printed overall. In addition, dozens of newspapers have eliminated one or more of their print publication days, while the Rocky Mountain News in Denver shut completely in February after failing to find a buyer.
By last month these challenges prompted AbitibiBowater to advise, in a U.S. regulatory filing, that its "liquidity position is currently severely constrained."
Efforts to avoid bankruptcy included selling hundreds of millions in assets, laying off workers and attempting to refinance its massive debt.
However, earlier this month it terminated a $1.8 billion refinancing effort to exchange existing debt for new debt; the exchange offer's deadline had been extended several times.
Res. RE has not bottomed (yet) because there's more inventory to hit the market. Foreclosure moratoria being lifted? CRE lags, definitely, but if you look at the numbers, CRE defaults didn't start rising until Sept. 08. There's probably another 12 months of unwind in that space, but it could be more as joblessness rises and creates additional knock-on effects (ie.e fresh inventory as business shutter). In my mid-town San Diego neighborhood, on just thwo blocks, there are now over a dozen commercials with For Lease signs on them. North Park if people know it. I estimate that cost the economy at least a 100 jobs that were there last fall.
This is great! http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/f88f8d6385/natalie-portman-rashida-jone...
...........................
CR did you see the article about General Growth? They are kaput! More CRE pain....
...................
We all hate taxes...
------------------------------------
There was a poll on CNN yesterday. 57% of Americans pay any income tax. 56% of Americans feel they pay too much income tax.
"Downtown office landlords cut their asking rents by an average of 2.2 percent in the first quarter ... "We are just entering into what will be a very strong market for the tenant. We can see rents come down 10 or 15 percent or even 20 percent before this is over." [Sicola said]"
For what tenants remain, that is. We have a lot of high-priced office space downtown from the dotcom era; after that went south much of it was rented to finance and mortgage types. Now that _that_ has gone south, vast amounts are vacant. There's retail on the ground floor, so all seems normal. Some of the tenants have opted for cheaper space, but just as many have gone out of business, closed the local branch or unit, etc.
If the growth business of America has been shuffling money and building houses, and both those industries shrink... who's going to fill all those empty glass boxes?
"Hate taxes and government?:"
Yes who would hate taxes and limited government besides right wing extremist assholes? Like those founding fathers.
Hmmm things have gotten mixed up somehow.
seen that??
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8001800.stm
more pain.... hope there is no big inflation in Europe.. dont want to overdebt and inflation doesnt show up ( thing AMF plan was US only)
CR: CRE is getting crushed.
Is this different from cliff diving? I guess it is, since it isn't "contracting less severely". As has been pointed here countless times, a market can go down 12.5% forever without ever getting to zero - a happy, hopeful thought on post-hump day.
When does TARP/TALF kick in for CRE companies and REITs?
" Full Stop wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 11:42am.
Res. RE has not bottomed (yet) because there's more inventory to hit the market. Foreclosure moratoria being lifted? CRE lags, definitely, but if you look at the numbers, CRE defaults didn't start rising until Sept. 08. There's probably another 12 months of unwind in that space, but it could be more as joblessness rises and creates additional knock-on effects (ie.e fresh inventory as business shutter)."
One thing a keep telling my friends and associates is that no only is there a glut in supply for RE (too many houses), but the pool of qualified buyer is also shrinking as foreclosures affect former buyer's credit ratings, and this is just as or even more problematic. Well, just as problematic anyway.
A more interesting question is what is the vacancy rate in Geithner's head.
Gold? No, it seems to be copper---
"The next industrial revolution is going to be led by hybrid cars, and that needs copper. You can see the subtle way that China is moving into 30 or 40 countries with resources," he said. The SRB has also been accumulating aluminium, zinc, nickel, and rarer metals such as titanium, indium (thin-film technology), rhodium (catalytic converters) and praseodymium (glass). While it makes sense for China to take advantage of last year's commodity crash to restock cheaply, there is clearly more behind the move. "They are definitely buying metals to diversify out of US Treasuries and dollar holdings," said Jim Lennon, head of commodities at Macquarie Bank. John Reade, metals chief at UBS, said Beijing may have a made strategic decision to stockpile metal as an alternative to foreign bonds. "We're very surprised by Chinese demand. They are buying much more copper than they will need this year. If this is strategic, there may be no effective limit on the purchases as China's pockets are deep."
My sister and her husband are considering opening a small breakfast cafe at one of the prime downtown mini-malls in our little tourist-centered community. The owner is offering them a near turn-key operation for free for two-years, only paying 10% of any profits.
Yoringe wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:36am.
i hate taxes too, but i love good Healthcare, cheap public transport, good roads, motivated Police etc, etc. even more...
Cheap public transport? Yeah that would be good. Too bad public transport is 2.5 to 4x more expensive than private transport. Public transport is also highly location discriminatory. We used to call it redlining when we did that for other things.
In lieu of besmirching our history and our forefather's /Boston Tea Party, why couldn't Fox just call it:
"Sham-Now"
Anonymous
It makes sense that China would be diversifying out of US treasuries into commodities. if you had piles of money and 1 billion people to keep relatively pacified you would too
Moin from Germany,
dont´t know if this has been posted before but CRE is also threatening the insurers.......
Table CRE Exposure
http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/insure...
On top of the all the other losses...
S&P: Life Insurers Face "Unprecedented Stress"
http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2009/04/15/sp-life-insurers-face-...
Time for another accounting change.......
"In lieu of besmirching our history and our forefather's /Boston Tea Party, why couldn't Fox just call it:
"Sham-Now""
And what would be the point of that, other than a cheap laugh?
I wish everything in this country ran as well as Amtrak.
If a person is foreclosed on and it will be a while until someone extends them another mortgage loan, then you have by subtraction effectively added a new home to the buyer/inventory equation.
ABF: great line!
and Sham-Forever!
RD, never been in Europe?? here in Spain the train from where i live to Barcelona is far cheaper and quicker as any car!!! thats what i like to pay taxes for...
Its not Gouv. thats bad, its how it is used.. very old human problem... good we evolve
Last night's South Park was a beauty...
Somehow it combined an extraterrestrial Baby-Face Nelson, avarice and space cash. Not necessarily in that order.
"It makes sense that China would be diversifying out of US treasuries into commodities. if you had piles of money and 1 billion people to keep relatively pacified you would too"
That could actually help us in the short/intermediate run. Running up the price of commodities might help get that inflation fire going. However, in the long run, it puts them in a REALLY good position. I'm glad they're on our side. Oh wait!
Reits were granted some rule changes that allowed them to issue stock in lieu of paying a dividend.
Its funny I read this NarReit mag. They were doom and gloom way before it was cool to be doom and gloom....
They've now changed their stance to rosy colored glasses. Everything is getting better.
ROTFLOL!
I'm not if it will take the passing of the last great yellow journalist to get rid of Fox, and Rupert can't live forever, can he?
" MiTurn wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:47am.
My sister and her husband are considering opening a small breakfast cafe at one of the prime downtown mini-malls in our little tourist-centered community. The owner is offering them a near turn-key operation for free for two-years, only paying 10% of any profits."
I know the owners of two breakfast-lunch cafes in our tourist/college town, and they report steady business. It's the locals that are the basis of their business, though. There's another such cafe down by the beach that relies more heavily on tourists, and it's for sale.
Nades that "for rent" picture is emblematic of our times.
I'm not sure if it will take the passing of the last great yellow journalist to get rid of Fox, and Rupert can't live forever, can he?
(edited version)
Anecdotal, I am seeing a lot of sale pendings and home sales in my area (NH). The $8K credit for first time buyers probably helps, as well as low mortgage rates. I am esp. noticing an uptick in the vacation homes areas. This could be a bump, or it could be a trend. We'll see.
"Here in Spain the train from where i live to Barcelona is far cheaper and quicker as any car!"
And here I thought the rain fell mainly on the plain- BTW, I loved Barcelona when I visited. It took a few days to get accustomed to beginning dinner at 9:00PM, but the food was perhaps the best I've ever had. The mussels, the piella (the risotto rice like stuff with veggies and seafood), etc. were fabulous, and though it seems that the residents diddn't speak as much English as in other areas of Europe, we got along okay. Perhaps I didn't speak LOUDLY and SLOWLY enough
"We are just entering into what will be a very strong market for the tenant.'
Bwahahahahaahhahahahahaha!
Yeah if you can find any!
Nostrovia,
"The $8K credit for first time buyers probably helps, as well as low mortgage rates. I am esp. noticing an uptick in the vacation homes areas."
FWIW, the $8k credit is for primary residences only.
I was counting the "for lease" signs on commercial buildings on the driveto work--I pass a lot of small office buildings and strip malls. Twelve stoplights, thirteen lease signs. It looks like the hardest hit are the older small office buildings, especially the ones that look like they could have been branch banks in the 70s.
Brick and mortar rigor mortgage
" Outsider (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:56am.
Anecdotal, I am seeing a lot of sale pendings and home sales in my area (NH). The $8K credit for first time buyers probably helps, as well as low mortgage rates. I am esp. noticing an uptick in the vacation homes areas. This could be a bump, or it could be a trend. We'll see."
-----------------------------------------------------------
Let me help you out with how to interpret that. Knife catchers are stepping up, driven by a propaganda blitz by the media peddling green shoots. Prices will keep falling, and they will lose money, to be followed by the next wave of knife catchers.
--"Justin Fox says he's looked at the data, and the answer is that inequality is driven by bubbles…"
April 16, 2009; "The Asset Bubble Theory of Income Inequality"
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/04/the-asset-bubbl...
I have known this for years and what is more those who benefit the most do all in their powers to fan bubbles. It must be obvious who benefited the most from the Scam Market bubble, the tech bubble in particular, and the housing bubble. The size, or the degree of bubbles is directly correlated with the corruption and crookedness of the economic elite. The American econo-political system has never been as corrupt and as crooked as since 1996, the beginning of the tech bubble driven by the Scam Options fraud, which was like bankers given permission to take as money, say 2% of the account balance every month, from customer accounts from customer accounts. This scheme was legalized by political corruption and simple corporate greed. Only the brainwashed population failed to see it at the time for what it was.
Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
..."Well now, after looking at the data about the country's 400 highest earners and reading the comments by pneogy and shepherdwong, I am ready to offer an important new theory (well, not entirely new): The rise in income inequality over the past 30 years has to a significant extent been the product of a series of asset-price bubbles. Whenever the market (be it the market in stocks, junk bonds, real estate, whatever) booms, the share of income going to those at the very top increases. When the boom goes bust, that share drops somewhat, but then it comes roaring back even higher with the next asset bubble. It's not the same people raking it in every time-there's lots of turnover in the top 400-but skimming the top off of asset bubbles appears to have become the leading way to get rich in these United States in the past three decades. ..."
When all the too big to fail firms are doing Enron end-a-rounds, your country just might be a little corrupt.
There are 'space available' signs planted in front of almost every building bordering the 101 from Brisbane to 237. Vacancy rates in the Valley are definitely higher that 12.5%, probably closer to 20%.
Cinco-X
the Problem is they are CATALAN and dont even like spanish!!! very nationalist wich can be a pain but generaly friendly..
on a side note : FC Barcelona PAYs UNICEF for there trikot advertising!!!!! very nice IMO...
" Jas wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 12:01pm.
I am ready to offer an important new theory (well, not entirely new): The rise in income inequality over the past 30 years has to a significant extent been the product of a series of asset-price bubbles"
I think I've heard that 'here' on several occasions in the past few months (not from me, but I wish it was). Therefore, don't take credit.
Next beatdown for the banking industry is going to be CMBS. The IB's have generally been pretty proactive in dealing with their toxic RMBS, but they're still holding onto a crap load of CRE toxic waste since it was holding up better. Another brilliant call that will go down in the annuls of banking history.
"Like those founding fathers."
Actually, left-wingers for those days. In Paris a few decades later they would probably have been moderate Girondists.
Pavel Chichikov
Jas is like the Ted Bell, of Ted's Steak House of Beverly Hills fame (a Phil Hendrie radio character)
Ted would often take credit for such things as the serrated knife-edge and aluminum foil wrapped baked potatoes, the consummate faux blowhard.
" Yoringe wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 12:03pm.
Cinco-X
the Problem is they are CATALAN and dont even like spanish!!! very nationalist wich can be a pain but generaly friendly..
on a side note : FC Barcelona PAYs UNICEF for there trikot advertising!!!!! very nice IMO..."
That's true, and then there are the Basques who come down from the hill to open specialty restaurants on the plazas. I still loved it there, except for the weather. It reminded me of LA. Hot, somewhat steamy, and the pollution from all the factories that had moved there hung in the air just like LA. But the food.......what's the emoticon for licking your lips?
Rob Quixote and his hobby horse.
timmay's head was securitized as one of the terms of becoming SecTreas, in a CBO (Collateralized Brain Offering).
The Senior Tranche (natch) is held by a consortium of GS, C, & BAC).
The Mezzanine Tranche is the operating brain at Treas.
The Equity Tranche is held in a secret safe at CIA headquarters.
@AMF 9:07
"would often take credit for such things as the serrated knife-edge and aluminum foil wrapped baked potatoes, the consummate faux blowhard."
I thought that was Rob Dawg
"I know the owners of two breakfast-lunch cafes in our tourist/college town, and they report steady business."
Relatives of ours opened a catering- restaurant-bakery business in central Virginia. They've been doing so well that they're expanding - I'm speaking of business, not waist lines.
Good home-style food at moderate prices. People go for it.
Pavel Chichikov
Foreclosure Radar foreclosure report graphic for March can be seen here:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/california-foreclosures-for-...
Also For those up in the Ventura County here is Dataquick's March report for the area:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/ventura-county-march-2009-sa...
Flaminia wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 9:07am.
Rob Quixote and his hobby horse.
That's "iron horse." And notice since no one bothered to refute my cost claims I didn't reply.
We can see rents come down 10 or 15 percent or even 20 percent before this is over." [Sicola said]
And two years ago, these same dingbats foresaw rents increasing above inflation forever.
Here's a good one: financial professional. Hahahaha, that one always makes me laugh.
HOUSTON (AP) - The nation's biggest oil companies certainly won't need a bailout from the federal government, but they won't have to defend staggering profits anytime soon either.
When oil producers, service companies and other oil-sector outfits begin reporting first-quarter earnings next week, the results are expected to be the lowest in several years, a decade perhaps.
A year ago, crude prices were in the triple digits on their way to a peak near $150 a barrel in July. They spent the latter part of 2008 tumbling and today hover around $50 a barrel. Natural gas prices have fallen sharply too as the world grapples with a severe recession that's crushed energy consumption.
A benefit for consumers has been lower gasoline and other fuel bills. On average, pump prices are roughly 40 percent lower than they were a year ago, when gasoline topped $4 a gallon.
More than once last year, executives from Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and the other oil majors were pressed by members of Congress to explain soaring fuel prices amid huge profits. Don't expect similar hearings in 2009.
"These (first-quarter) numbers are going to be ugly, the worst in six or seven years, maybe 10 in some cases," said Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.
Already, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, the second- and third-largest U.S. oil companies respectively, have said lower crude and gas prices will weigh heavily on January-March results. In a report earlier this month, ConocoPhillips noted the market price for oil - based on the benchmark West Texas Intermediate - was down $54.97 a barrel versus the first quarter a year ago. At the same time, the market price for natural gas was down $3.12.
On a per-share basis, Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect ConocoPhillips to post first-quarter earnings of 44 cents a share, 83 percent below results of a year ago. The same analysts expect Chevron's per-share profit to tumble 65 percent, and Exxon's to fall 53 percent.
Much depends on the price of oil, but for now analysts' full-year earnings estimates versus 2008 are also pretty dire: Conoco down 70 percent, Chevron down 58 percent, Exxon down 49 percent.
A year ago those types of declines would have been unthinkable.
Exxon Mobil, the world's biggest publicly traded oil company, has made a habit of breaking corporate profit records in the past few years, including its $45.2 billion tally for all of 2008. But a 33 percent decrease in fourth-quarter earnings set the tone for what's shaping up to be a difficult year in the oil patch.
"Actually, left-wingers for those days. In Paris a few decades later they would probably have been moderate Girondists.
Pavel Chichikov"
Pavel,
If you go to http://www.politicalcompass.org/, you'll see that what is currently called "Right Wing" is more accurately call Neo-liberalism. There's no discrepancy in what was previously said.
Let me help you out with how to interpret that. Knife catchers are stepping up, driven by a propaganda blitz by the media peddling green shoots. Prices will keep falling, and they will lose money, to be followed by the next wave of knife catchers.
Yeah, that could be it. Then again, the market could be finding a bottom. We're talking houses in the $100-$250K range for the most part. In fact, the bottom of the market - and the area I'm thinking of is one where I used to live so I watch it pretty closely - appears to be selling pretty quickly. Anything $150 & less is disappearing. But we'll see. (The 8K credit for primary res., & not vacation homes, could still be a big pull for 1st time buyers who do actually live in vaca areas. In fact, in lower priced areas, $8K could be a 5% - 10% discount off the price of the house - that could be motivating.)
And from San Francisco...
Call to all serious teabaggers:
Why doncha teabag this? If you point your bazooka in the right direction, I'll carry a sign right along with ya.
Corporations don't pay taxes; only the little people do (and that means you.). Shut down the tax havens.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-157
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1249465620080812
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2004/04/11/most_us_firms_p...
I'm surprised at the positive spin being put on the China commodies stockpiling story. Good if you're a commodities investor I suppose, perhaps not so good if you live in Taiwan. I'm surprised no one is speculating on that slant to the story.
What other country has a menu of houses under a buck?
Only in America
Questions.
(1) Did the available stock of AU increase/decrease in proportion to population since GDI?
(2) If currencies or bonds have severe dislocation, what must take their place as instruments of exchange?
"I'm surprised at the positive spin being put on the China commodies stockpiling story. Good if you're a commodities investor I suppose, perhaps not so good if you live in Taiwan. I'm surprised no one is speculating on that slant to the story."
Sorry; I left out the /snark. Didn't you see the "Oh wait" at the end
A sign-maker got a gig making up placards for lazy teabaggers, Foxy devil.
"(2) If currencies or bonds have severe dislocation, what must take their place as instruments of exchange? "
Cowrie shells-
kermit sighting
"A sign-maker got a gig making up placards for lazy teabaggers, Foxy devil. "
The recovery has begun
\snark for the humor impaired
Rob Dawg: I want my "iron pony".
"If you go to http://www.politicalcompass.org/, you'll see that what is currently called "Right Wing" is more accurately call Neo-liberalism. There's no discrepancy in what was previously said."
Yah. a well-known phenomenon. But labels have a limited utility anyway. There are the necessary functions of government in early 21st century society - you don't want salmonella in your peanut butter, or your neighborhood to burn down. And then there is social control to a greater or lesser extent. Can you have the benign functions without the control?
Pavel Chichikov
We saw how easy credit and reach down financing fed a speculative fever and caused artificially high demand for mortgages/housing which created artificially high pricing, overproduction of supply. Result being massive glut in housing, price crash, restrictions in credit, crash in supply and demand of mortgage products.
If CB manipulation and financial alchemy can do that to housing, what happens when the same alchemy is applied to overstating supply and suppressing demand for a widget?
Or precious metals.
How can an economics blog be SO right about RRE and CRE, but miss another glaring, imminent marketplace correction?
"That's "iron horse." And notice since no one bothered to refute my cost claims I didn't reply. "
Last night I dreamed that I was straddling an iron cannon, and all of my wife's friends were dress in scanty pirate costumes.
Time for a stimulus that will work and that most enjoy--legalize sports betting, prostitution, and weed.
Yap Stones are where it's at.
As in nobody can "lift" them away from you. The biggest are 12 foot in diameter.
@Orange Billy
Do you expect a PM correction up or down?
" Mel wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 12:18pm.
Time for a stimulus that will work and that most enjoy--legalize sports betting, prostitution, and weed."
I'll second that, as long as my daughter doesn't get involved in it-
"A sign-maker got a gig making up placards for lazy teabaggers, Foxy devil. "
I thought yesterday that I could show up at the "protest" with a bunch of cheap ass tea from Wal-Mart and sell it to idiots at a 500% markup.
too much hassle though...
maybe get a few college kids to do it and let them skim some off the top.
This is a time of transition. When a new stable state is arrived at, those who survive until that time will be astonished - perhaps or perhaps not dismayed - at what has happened. Then the bubbles, the bail-outs, the fumbling and the policies will make sense as part of an historical process. We're too close to it now to bring it into focus.
Pavel Chichikov
Borocco Mama wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:39am.
The following is the theme song of the next teabag protest.
I wish I was in the land of cotton,
old times there are not forgotten,
Look away, look away, look away, Dixie land.
In Dixie land where I was born in, early on a frosty mornin',
Look away, look away, look away, Dixie land.
Chorus:
Then I wish I was in Dixie, hooray! Hooray!
In Dixie land I'll take my stand, to live and die in Dixie,
Away, away, away down south in Dixie,
Away, away, away down south in Dixie.
______________________________________________--
Born and raised in Charleston, SC
Gone are the days that most in this city even know what song that is...the transplants are killing our way of life.
Pradigm Lost wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 9:16am.
Rob Dawg: I want my "iron pony".
Come to California where we are on the verge of dumping $60b into the best 19th century technology we can buy from other countries. CAHSR.
Elmer you deserve a mansion and a yacht.
Europe had those extreme gasoline taxes while we built hummers and subsidized highways. Now they have a far better rail system. Who could have known[sp]?
Propaganda Update:
If it hasn't been posted yet, the WaPo has an article WHEN YOU'RE FLUSH BUT ACTING FLAT BROKE . . .
Economists tell us there's a disconnect and we should be out spending.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/15/AR200904...
I voted Obama. But when he was running, it was all Sky Is Falling. Now it's All Recovery, All the Time and you're nabob to think the sky still might fall.
Asshats one and all.
"Yap Stones are where it's at."
I thought of those too. How about portable town or ranch houses made from light balloon material? Tow your tradeable, fungible house behind you on on a length of string.
Pavel Chichikov
I am hoping for an up correction in PM's I am heavy Gold, Silver........Brass.
"Yap Stones are where it's at."
I thought of those too. How about portable town or ranch houses made from light balloon material? Tow your tradeable, fungible house behind you on on a length of string.
Pavel Chichikov
Sorry, didn't mean to duplicate.
Pavel Chichikov
"This is a time of transition. When a new stable state is arrived at, those who survive until that time will be astonished - perhaps or perhaps not dismayed - at what has happened. Then the bubbles, the bail-outs, the fumbling and the policies will make sense as part of an historical process. We're too close to it now to bring it into focus."
well spoken...
many will not accept new paradigms, clutching at their ill-defined and selfish "freedoms"...
responsibility is a dish best served to everyone...
--
What has happened to CRE over the past 15 months is a very good example of how little CR understands this economy addicted to consumption debt, for the past 6 years in particular.
Jas
@ Shill
Sgt. Pepper's frocks and smocks aren't PMs.
So all the bad news today didn't move the market. REITs flat in the face of a $27bil bk. Something eventually will spook the market hard. I think an earnings miss from GOOG or AAPL would do more harm than a GM bk. That's how f'd the market is. I think even the bulls are hoping for a 5-10% correction to prevent catastophe in the future.
Commercial real estate market softens
Another wave of real estate defaults is rapidly gathering strength - this time in the office sector.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/16/MNU716VAMR.D...
Born and raised in Charleston, SC
Gone are the days that most in this city even know what song that is...the transplants are killing our way of life.
That's exactly why that theme song would be so appropriate. Most of the protesters have no clue what the protest's all about.
I think prime office vacancy in Beijing is around 15 %.
CHICAGO, April 6, 2009 – General Growth Properties, Inc. (NYSE: GGP) (the "Company") announced that as a result of the unusual market activity in the Company's common stock, the New York Stock Exchange contacted the Company and requested the Company issue a public statement indicating whether there are any corporate developments that might explain the unusual activity.
The Company announced it is not aware of any corporate developments that might explain the unusual market activity.
"What has happened to CRE over the past 15 months is a very good example of how little CR understands this economy addicted to consumption debt, for the past 6 years in particular.
Jas "
A competent anthropologist might make more sense out of what's happening than any number of economists.
Pavel Chichikov
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/general-growth-properties-f...
General Growth Properties Files for Bankruptcy
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6376296.html
Mall operator files for bankruptcy protection
General Growth owns all or part of five Houston-area malls
--
"Most of the protesters have no clue what the protest's all about."
What else is new? Most of BBAD havwew no clue that they are dopes and why they are dopes. Cluelessness is more American in recent years than the Apple-pie. Ruling elite have exploited this fact.
Jas
"Call to all serious teabaggers:
Why doncha teabag this? If you point your bazooka in the right direction, I'll carry a sign right along with ya.
Corporations don't pay taxes; only the little people do (and that means you.). Shut down the tax havens."
i've been lurking for a while and i'm quite impressed with the level of intelligence on this board (in spite of the spittle directed towards those of us who believe in small government). nevertheless...
i own a small corporation (12 employees) and i bonus out the excess cash at the end of the year to the employees. why pay taxes twice on the same money? most of the corporations in the u.s. are in a similar situation as mine. so when this survey came out that says that most corporations don't pay any taxes, without noting the fact that most corporations are small businesses... sigh...
i'm disapointed that a cr reader would fall for this crap.
Seen of the crime: Wall*Street
My name is Thursday, I carry a grudge.
Dum da dum dum, dumb da dumb dumb dumb.
So are the banks using Fed/govt money to play the market instead of lending to the greater economy? Does that explain the disconnect between the market and reality?
"i hate taxes too, but i love good Healthcare, cheap public transport, good roads, motivated Police etc, etc. even more..."
I love good politicians but there seems none to be had at any price!
Shill wrote
I am hoping for an up correction in PM's I am heavy Gold, Silver........Brass
While I'm not into PM, I too hope to avoid an orchidectomy.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
Time for a stimulus that will work and that most enjoy--legalize sports betting, prostitution, and weed.
My prediction: 50% of the population would go for this. The other 50% might have a problem with it tho.
"(2) If currencies or bonds have severe dislocation, what must take their place as instruments of exchange? "
Numbers (serial), indexed to a superbasket of all weighted liquid tangibles, and eventually some former intangibles like calories, watts, protein, gigabytes, etc.
I have all of my wealth in ETF Quatloos & ETF Yap Stones
"This is a time of transition. When a new stable state is arrived at, those who survive until that time will be astonished"
Pony is a dish that is best served cold?
Nostrovia,
I got malled by a cougar, not that I didn't appreciate the effort.
O,
"
Time for a stimulus that will work and that most enjoy--legalize sports betting, prostitution, and weed.
My prediction: 50% of the population would go for this. The other 50% might have a problem with it tho."
We should legalize suicide while were at it then .
Nostrovia,
"So are the banks using Fed/govt money to play the market instead of lending to the greater economy? Does that explain the disconnect between the market and reality?"
Goldman Sachs, a bank holding company, made record profits from "proprietary trading". "Other business" saw declines.
Their other business does not include producing electric cars, solar panels, soy beans, or much else of tangible value.
pavel.chichikov (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 9:24am.
How about portable town or ranch houses made from light balloon material?
shhhh... you are giving away the plot of the new Pixar movie.
Thee I was right next to the hot-dog-on-a-stick-store, when her unabashed middle-aged thighs attracted my sighs.
did general growth get their epaulets stripped?
it's killing me too!
My prediction: 50% of the population would go for this. The other 50% might have a problem with it tho.
Hey, that's more, much more, than voted these dildo politicians into office.
How many teabggers would support the decriminalization of these industries? It sure would save a lot of tax money. Not only save money fighting it, but raise money taxing it, but even if you didn't tax it, you save the gobs of money we use to fight a losing battle with it. How many teabaggers would agree to cutting the defense budget by 90%? That would be a huge savings. My guess, not many teabaggers would support either of the aforementioned.
The night shift had GGP well covered by 4:30 AM.
Worms have more protein per ounce than squirrels.
Can Optimism Alone Spur Recovery?
To view our impartial assessment, please visit:
Goldman Sachs, a bank holding company, made record profits from "proprietary trading".
is that the three card monte department?
Sgt. Pepper's frocks and smocks aren't PMs.
------------
I must be slow today, I just don't get it.....maybe that's a good thing.
The fact that much investment in US malls has been funded by life insurers strikes me as very ironic. Literally, the welfare of our families is dependent on mall shopping to a certain degree. Food for thought...
--
"i'm disapointed that a cr reader would fall for this crap."
You must have an inflated opinion of "a cr reader." Most Americans know a lot about few things and outside of that they are dopes because they don't acknowledge their ignorance in most areas of economics, investments and political systems.
The US tax system is very favorable to the rich and small businesses (e.g., expensing many personal costs) and the real burden falls on the workers. No wonder that more and more Americans like to work less or not work at all.
Jas
AMF,
"I got malled by a cougar, not that I didn't appreciate the effort. "
Lucky bastard.
Nostrovia,
Full Stop: While the psych study might be true, there are other aspects to consider.
State & local taxes are going up. Property's being re-assessed up & taxes are highter there too. Cable & satellite in our area has boosted their prices. Food has risen dramatically. People will cut back on discretionary spending to pay for the necessary things....shelter, food, transportation.
Something to consider about gambling:
Legalized gambling was mostly prohibited in the USA pre-1929 (not that illegal gambling didn't flourish) and just like alcohol which had been prohibited, the public of the time reacted to this previous forbidden fruit, with expectable results of good business.
We've so polluted ourselves with gambling possibilities nowadays, that the thrill is long gone.
We also can no longer sign MEW Markers, in which to get the wherewithal to waste.
Gambling has been the route to most of he evil we've created, isn't it?
"No wonder that more and more Americans like to work less or not work at all."
Very nice to have the choice. Most do not.
I'm car free at the moment in Mill Valley in Marin. Easy. I went up to Mendo for a few days, no problem on the bus. And you get to meet interesting people! One fellow was just released from San Quentin (dresses in sweats and tennis shoes, courtesy of the prison) and had such interesting insights into out criminal justice system. You don't get this insight riding in your car!
I have done 5 backpack trips this year, all on public transportation to the trail head.
If you really need a car? Rent one.
Spending a lot of time in The City, a car is a liability.
Now JPM used its cheese to buy $34 billion in mortgage and asset backed securities, evidently hoping to flip them at some tea party.
Since a dollar to a bank means 8 to 10 in loans (as Obama explained to Georgetown seniors the other day), they'll be making electric cars in no time.
Auto Thefts Plague Border Region
"This city along the Rio Grande is on the verge of becoming the stolen-car capital of the U.S., according to data set for release Monday that underscore how drug cartels are helping make the U.S.-Mexico border region a hot spot for vehicle thieves.
The National Insurance Crime Bureau, a nonprofit body that collects law-enforcement reports, said 1,960 vehicles were reported stolen in the Laredo metropolitan area last year, an increase of more than 47% since 2005, when Laredo ranked 32nd nationally. That comes to 827 thefts per 100,000 people, putting Laredo just behind No. 1 Modesto, Calif....Drug cartels have several uses for stolen cars. In some cases, traffickers provide the stolen vehicles to smugglers who move weapons bought in the U.S. across the border, according to a recent internal report by the Department of Homeland Security. It says cars sometimes are "laundered" with different plates.
Using stolen cars makes good business sense for the cartels, which can minimize losses if the vehicles are seized, police say.
...The city of Laredo runs along the Rio Grande, meaning Mexico is just a few minutes away from almost any spot in town. "If it's stolen at 3 [p.m.], for example, it's in Mexico by 3:05," Sgt. Garcia said. The city has tried to use license-plate readers to detect stolen cars, but the vehicles are frequently over the border before their owners even know they have been stolen."
It looks like Laredo needs mass transit and bike lanes...but seriously, the bottom line to this story is that there is little the US side law enforcement can do to stop this. This has got to have a longer term negative effect on living and doing business on the US side of the border.
"How many teabggers would support the decriminalization of these industries? It sure would save a lot of tax money. Not only save money fighting it, but raise money taxing it, but even if you didn't tax it, you save the gobs of money we use to fight a losing battle with it. How many teabaggers would agree to cutting the defense budget by 90%? That would be a huge savings. My guess, not many teabaggers would support either of the aforementioned. "
Borocco
I was at the sacramento tea party. i know others who were at the tea party. your guess is wrong. in fact, most of you opining on us are clueless. from whom are you getting your characterizations of me and my co-radicals? as mark twain said:
"Everything in the newspapers is 100% accurate…unless it happens to be about something, of which you have actual knowledge."
If some gambling is legal, all gambling should be equal. Placing bets in the stock market is legal, even though the house always wins. It's no different than a casino. Fat chance changing that law now that the Indians have such a powerful lobby. The only legal gambling forever more will be on Indian land, or Wall Street.
Paradigm, you're right. The point is the media's full-court press that people need to get back to doing what they've been doing the last twenty years: spending all they have and, if at all possible, spending more.
Interesting:
"semi-historical tax tidbits from the NYT's estimable David Leonhardt:
What's much less known is that those old confiscatory [tax] rates were not as sweeping as they sound. They applied to only the richest of the rich, because yesterday's tax code, unlike today's, had separate marginal tax rates for the truly wealthy and the merely affluent. For a married couple in 1960, for example, the 38 percent tax bracket started at $20,000, which is about $145,000 in today's terms. The top bracket of 91 percent began at $400,000, which is the equivalent of nearly $3 million now. Some of the old brackets are truly stunning: in 1935, Franklin D. Roosevelt raised the top rate to 79 percent, from 63 percent, and raised the income level that qualified for that rate to $5 million (about $75 million today) from $1 million. As the economist Bruce Bartlett has noted, that 79 percent rate apparently applied to only one person in the entire country, John D. Rockefeller.
Today, by contrast, the very well off and the superwealthy are lumped together. The top bracket last year started at $357,700. Any income above that - whether it was the 400,000th dollar earned by a surgeon or the 40 millionth earned by a Wall Street titan - was taxed the same, at 35 percent. This change is especially striking, because there is so much more income at the top of the distribution now than there was in the past."
adornoghost,
"And you get to meet interesting people! One fellow was just released from San Quentin (dresses in sweats and tennis shoes, courtesy of the prison) and had such interesting insights into out criminal justice system. You don't get this insight riding in your car!"
Bah! You never heard of hitchhikers?
Nostrovia,
" Zephyr wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 9:53am.
"No wonder that more and more Americans like to work less or not work at all."
Very nice to have the choice. Most do not."
Most of us like work. We just don't like jobs.
AP sources: UAW focusing on talks with Chrysler
http://www.themarketguardian.com/2009/04/ap-sources-uaw-focusing-on-talk...
Look, Mr. Tax Haven, I have no beef with small business owners. I was a small business owner myself until a year ago when I sold out. Small businesses in America hire most of the people here
My beef is with the transnats who are gaming national regulatory & tax systems. This has been going on for decades. When the big boyz slide through the cracks, guess who fills the gap? Individuals & small businesses, that's who.
Goldman Sachs, a bank holding company, made record profits from "proprietary trading". "Other business" saw declines.
Their other business does not include producing electric cars, solar panels, soy beans, or much else of tangible value.
Didn't JPM say pretty much the same thing?
BB and TG might be gutting the real economy to push up paper values. That should work out nicely.
--
"Gambling has been the route to most of he evil we've created, isn't it?"
Gambling is the crooks' way! Especially, if one includes addiction to speculation. BBAD have been, and continue to be, plundered by their govt. What a bunch of dopes that voted for Obama or MaCain, both sworn agents of the crooks.
Jas
Jobs... Better to work for yourself.
This must have been covered:
"By Craig Torres
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve and other regulators aim to release the results of stress tests on 19 of the biggest U.S. banks on May 4, a central bank official said.
Regulators also plan to publish a paper on their methods on April 24, according to the official. The May 4 results will include any plans for boosting capital to weather a deeper economic downturn, the person said.
Procedures for releasing information on specific firms, including whether the banks themselves or the supervisors will release the results, are still under discussion. The Securities and Exchange Commission, which sets rules for what publicly traded companies must disclose to investors about their financial condition, is involved in the talks, the person said. "
Quite clearly the 2 weeks early release of "methods" is for adjustment when the blogging brain rips them apart [no sarcasm].
"What's much less known is that those old confiscatory [tax] rates were not as sweeping as they sound. They applied to only the richest of the rich,"
Ah, the politics of envy...the oldest of the old. It's a great gig too, as the tax codes are always written by and for the richest of the rich.
Amazing how that John D. Rockefeller year quickly more a few years hence into soaking those drooling fools who bought the rhetoric of envy.
Nostrovia,
I drank too much yesterday. I have a tea hangover.
Must be priced in. SRS getting hit again.
Full stop: sloppy story...not much thought behind it. But then, that's newspaper work these days.
"lots of see thrus off the 101 in Sunnyvale "
has always been the case....that area, along with most of the santa clara portion of Central Expressway, never really recovered from the early 90's. Even portions of North First street have been vacant for many years......
Ciao
MS
Be careful. I knew an Indian who drank too much tea.
He died in his teapea.
Sorry Jas
Quite clearly the 2 weeks early release of "methods" is for adjustment when the blogging brain rips them apart [no sarcasm].
+1
The tax code is way too complicated. It was written by politicians who inserted a multitude of breaks and conditions in response to lobbyists (from business and labor).
File under " You just cannot make this shit up "
ORGANIZATION ISSUING BONDS BASED ON GUARANTEED PAYMENTS FOR THE VACCINATION OF POOR POPULATIONS
Paradigm: What do you expect of, as someone here said, Pravda-on-the-Potomac?
Many of Jas' BBAD's will read it, contraposed with green shoots-talk, and ask themselves, "What have I spent for the economy today? Time for that 90-inch flat screened I so richly deserve."
"I got malled by a cougar, not that I didn't appreciate the effort. "
Did you mean mauled, and did she teach you a thing or two?
"How about portable town or ranch houses made from light balloon material?
shhhh... you are giving away the plot of the new Pixar movie. "
You mean Trailer Park Barbie?
Paradigm Lost wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 9:57am.
"Look, Mr. Tax Haven, I have no beef with small business owners. I was a small business owner myself until a year ago when I sold out. Small businesses in America hire most of the people here
My beef is with the transnats who are gaming national regulatory & tax systems. This has been going on for decades. When the big boyz slide through the cracks, guess who fills the gap? Individuals & small businesses, that's who"
I and my fellow tea baggers agree with you.
Lobbyist who get their voices heard best are those who represent a lot of votes such as those for the NAR, or insurance agents, or labor unions, etc Potential voter influence is the uber currency on capital hill.
California asks feds to back its IOUs
There's definitely something to be said about the Bulls preferring a modest correction about now. Personally, I'm cashed out on the sidelines until it moves definitively one way or the other from here because the short/long uncertainty is as great as at any time in this cycle.
"I'm car free at the moment in Mill Valley in Marin"
Is that the Mill valley from "Back to the Future", or am I completely off base again
"Small businesses in America hire most of the people here"
In fact, small businesses create all of the net new job growth. Big business net organic job growth is about zero over time. As a group they expand their employment rolls by buying up smaller businesses.
"Must be priced in. SRS getting hit again."
i ve been saying it for a while, the SRS (and similar) is nothing more than NASDAQ in 01 (intriguing ponzi scheme.) You ether get out on time or you (most) don't. And since market is forward looking, the probability of not getting out on time is ... HUGE.
Even worse, when market is up (a year + from now) a SRS custodian might liquidate the fund, since management fees are not profitable. So anyone buying for pennies in the near future might position for a "pleasant" surprise.
"Fat chance changing that law now that the Indians have such a powerful lobby. "
It's their treaties, not their lobby that gives them the upper hand.
Can anyone beat 23%? LATimes:
In 2005, the rate was just 3.3%, Husing said. It has since climbed to 9.9%, but is far worse in the parts of Riverside and San Bernardino that came late to the trade boom party and were still building even as the market peaked in 2006 and leveled off in 2007.
At the newest facilities that were built in anticipation of growth, the vacancy rate runs as high as 23%, Husing said.
While we're on the Tax Code and vaccination bonds: the securitization craze is simply the gaming of the capital gains tax break, but I know many of the dopes here love their cheesy tax break stimuli...
Born and raised in Charleston, SC
Gone are the days that most in this city even know what song that is...the transplants are killing our way of life.
Schoolsout: You say that like it is a bad thing, it is not
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The treansnationals will continue to avoid high tax countries. Eventually there will be no effective US corporate income tax on large corporations because there will be no large US corporations. They will all be in tax havens, and sell their goods into the US with little or no income tax.
This gives them a cost advantage over US ccorporations. Eventually every large corp will go offshore or be driven out of business by the foreign corporations.
That's right, Zephyr.
"...by buying up smaller businesses." Then they right-size the payroll, load it up with junk debt after scrimming off the cream. And, Voila, they look like management geniuses. But do they really know how to run a business? I think not. Sometimes I think we need a really good depression to flush out the poseurs.
But RD, let's not examine your claims with respect to the state of hydrocarbon reserves in the USA...
She held my hot-dog-on-a-stick in one paw, Captain Mustard in the other...
Great management talent is as rare as great baseball talent. The problem is really exacerbated by the way managers are paid. Heavily rewarded for short to medium term results, with little real stake in the downside risk. So they are financially incented to bet the farm and do things that look good in the short run - even if the long run will suffer.
Ah, I see we've moved on to the next thread. As I said earlier, Zephyr, shut down all the tax havens.
"But do they really know how to run a business?"
Many do not, and the big companies with such problematic leadership make the news when their screwups cause big troubles. Meanwhile, the many well-run companies quietly continue their long-term success.
It is impossible to shut down the tax havens. But we can tax the tax haven companies when they sell their goods in the US. That is the only sustainable solution.
energyecon (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 10:19am.
But RD, let's not examine your claims with respect to the state of hydrocarbon reserves in the USA...
Coal and photons; we are rich.
We should legalize suicide while were at it then .
Nostrovia
For which 50%?
Side step and shuffle...the transportation system in question needs liquids and will in quantity for some time due to the scale of the capital stock.
It's their treaties, not their lobby that gives them the upper hand.
Their treaties allowed legal gambling, but their lobby will help keep it illegal everywhere else except Vegas and Wall Street.
Pavel - where in Central Virginia (which is where I am)?
"I'm not if it will take the passing of the last great yellow journalist to get rid of Fox, and Rupert can't live forever, can he?"
In the interview with some Fox toadie that I saw, they that Murdoch is not particularly partisan, but that there was an incredible amount of money to be made telling a specific group of people what they want to hear, and if that ever changed the other way, Murdoch would be just as mercenary in that regard.
So, the fact that Fox viewers poll and test, as the least informed, is not because Fox makes them ignorant, but that particularly ignorant people gravitate to Fox. And conversely, the most informed watch the Daily Show and News Hour, not to be illuminated, but because they already are well informed.
"Bah! You never heard of hitchhikers?"
I picked up a hitchhiker the other day that was on his way to buy a $400 car. His plan was to drive to Alaska and strike it rich panning for gold with gold prices being so high. He was so excited and full of hope. I wonder how far he will get.
We should legalize suicide while were at it then .
No way, throw them corpses in jail for life.
You would expect all this news to be good for SRS but... Is there the invisible hand of the government propping up the indexes?
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