Hello!
lawyerliz,
MI looks a lot more like Michigan than Merritt Island. Jus' sayin. 
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Hello!
CR, as a practical matter, it takes an hour to drive from Laguna Beach to Santa Monica. So how can you be posting a half hour before this event begins? Do you have a computer with cell connection strapped to your body?
Ways to view comments on this thread:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
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Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn
Can you ask a question and wave. I don't care if it is on radio, I want a wave.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
Tupuli, that was funny. If they aren't orange then they will be hyper and have a head start on rotting teeth. My sisters ignorant slut SIL gave her kid juice as soon as she good and never bothered to teach the kid how to brush its teeth. No worries now. No teeth.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
CR--knows all, sees all, reports all. Do not ask how or why.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride?
Re-post from the end of the last thread:
sportsfan, I understand that the admin may just be trying to avoid a catastrophe, but I think they could do that just by pointing out some very obvious facts:
1. How much future income the owners of stocks can expect to earn is very closely related to aggregate corporate earnings, and these are a fairly stable but cyclical % of the entire economy (which is pretty stable and usually grows). Show how total GDP changes over very long time periods, and how aggregate corporate earnings vary over time as a % of the total economy, and how aggregate stock market valuations vary over time with both. Give everyone a very basic education on long term economic and financial cycles and the averages.
2. Do the same for house prices
3. Admit that the recent bubble in equities means that many people misunderstood how much future income they could expect from their prior equity investments.
4. Admit the same for the housing bubble, but then add that the excessive leverage allowed in the housing market caused damage to savers whose money was used to lend to people buying overpriced houses. That money will never be repaid, but savers will (for the most part) be made whole because they had no upside and weren't responsible. the money to make the savers whole will come from taxpayers, so tax rates will go up starting in year 201x.
5. This is a huge realignment of wealth, real and imagined, and not everything will be seen as fair by everyone. but every effort will be made to make sure that people who were responsible will suffer the least, and people who were irresponsible will suffer. There will be some accounting, for fairness.
6. With that giant re-set, we now just have to start over from the new points, and get on with our normal business, and figuring out what changes are appropriate in our personal lives, jobs, and businesses.
Instead of that (being treated like adults) we get pablum and make-believe from Summers and others. It is more damaging their way.
Will CSC be there?
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
I want to see an icon in a bully pulpit calling for a sea change going forward.
Or perhaps a tsunami that will sweep away all the bee hives keeping busy.
Pavel Chichikov
Do you have a computer with cell connection strapped to your body?
Nah, he's jacked in to his portable Ono-Sendai.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
No comprendo, Pavel.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
patientrenter, I can't imagine any President or administration ever saying any of thath. Voters would absolutely fli, and it's not productive if the people who need to accept such a message will absolutely refuse to under any conditions.
Pavel,
I don't think the pitchfork ever goes away.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
"No comprendo, Pavel.:
It's about clichés.
Pavel Chichikov
ooh, typos... any of "that" and voters would "flip"
Well, I just turned on Sid Meier's latest Nintendo Civilization effort.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
lawyerliz,
MI looks a lot more like Michigan than Merritt Island. Jus' sayin.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
sanityclause (member) wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 5:47pm.
"patientrenter, I can't imagine any President or administration ever saying any of thath. Voters would absolutely fli, and it's not productive if the people who need to accept such a message will absolutely refuse to under any conditions."
I live a very sheltered life, sanityclause. I think it just dawned on me with your post that I live in a nation (and probably world) of morons. it's tough to accept, kinda like those early scenes from "Planet of the Apes". LOL! But there it is, I suppose.
Okay, repost my reply from after the break:
sportsfan (member) wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 5:48pm.
patentrenter, I think you give ordinary Americans a lot of credit for being able to handle the truth and for being educated enough to understand economic theory (even those more obvious facts). I think they would fail on both points.
I'm not happy with the administration's current approach and, frankly, it's a little disconcerting to see Obama/Geithner following the Bush/Paulson playbook so closely. Whether all we're getting is pablum, though, is an open question. I think some effort has been made to date to say 'business as usual' doesn't apply any more.
Although a more radical approach may have generated that massive reset sooner than will otherwise occur, I don't think that would have been politically possible to accomplish. The opposition party has already been tough on utter nonsense. What would the reaction have been if Treasury had told Citi: no, no more money, you had two bailouts, now you're on your own?
We would have been hearing that the new anti-American President was going to destroy the entire American Way of Life.
There would have been calls for the violent overthrow of the government . . . and not just from Idaho.
Yes, I'd like to see some retribution and some punishment of those who have caused problems. I'm still waiting.
"I don't think the pitchfork ever goes away."
In the early twenties there was a war between the coal mine operators and the miners in Appalachian coal country. An old time labor reporter told me about it thirty years ago - he was in his 90s when he did. It was a small-scale recapitulation of WWI, with trenches, machine guns, airplanes bombing ground targets. I don't know for sure, but I suspect that most of the expensive weapons were on the side you'd expect them to be on.
It was a long time ago. That sort of thing will no longer happen. Even then it was localized.
Pavel Chichikov
LawyerLiz and TJ, continuing from last thread...
I'll be okay, if for nothing else that my parents are solvent for a long time unless everything really does crash and burn. I do thank you for your concern.
I guess my point is that there are way too many grifters and it is dragging down the honest people who have scrimped and paid their obligations, even in the face of huge credit dings/usury fees, while others skate by.
Absent the current medical issue, I would have been totally debt-free except the mortgage/utilities by August. Even minwage, I could have pulled it myself most likely. Now, that day is further down the road.
The housemate gets to stay, for now, because I'm not so brave as to kick his arse out and hope someone I do not know will rent and not be worse.
I have my issues and all, but my tolerance has long passed and it is going to bite him hard, soon.
Then he will be a societal problem as everything he's bought on leverage comes crashing down on his obligations. Of course, that again makes it "my" problem since I do currently have employment and am technically paying for it when it happens.
By the way, Chevy Tahoes are complete pieces of crap now. I could probably get my 02 Subie through things that Tahoe would stall in, not even carrying cargo or pulling anything behind.
How far we have fallen. You could not get me to say anything bad about a late-70s or early-80s Jeep Wagoneer or similar vehicle.
Now they're all plastic and can't handle anything off-road of consequence.
It was a long time ago. That sort of thing will no longer happen. Even then it was localized.
Pavel,
I hope not. Katrina was interesting. Waco perhaps? Or Philly when the Feds tossed out of a helocopter a gym bag filled with sticks of TNT
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Nova,
It's not like an Eisenstein movie where they storm the Winter Palace. It's more like the end of the Paris Commune, where the bodies of the communards were lined up like cord wood. Terrible things can happen. You don't want to see it. You don't want to see what can happen afterwards.
Pavel Chichikov
That sort of thing will no longer happen.
I wonder how many times that's been said throughout history.
Localized "issues" can certainly be dealt with through overwhelming state force. It's widespread discontent that ultimately reveals the limitations of the state.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
TJ, widespread discontent would also be met by overwhelming state force.
I agree with Pavel on this one. Pitchforks are great for venting; not much else.
Pavel,
I know. I have no desire to live that particular adventure. Interestingly today our real estate agent was Russian. We talked a bit about Ukraine and Russia. Another good historical example of bad things happening once upon a time. She told me that Kiev was really Russian. Interesting idea.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Or Philly when the Feds tossed out of a helocopter a gym bag filled with sticks of TNT
----------------------------------
It was the Philly PD who tossed the bomb. Killed 11 people, including 5 children. I doubt we will have Waco or Ruby Ridge (but who knows). More Columbine or Binghamton (shooter who snaps, and takes a dozen or so with them) however.
BTW - what the frick is up with all the helicoptors here in NoVA? Ben running the presses late?
To those who were arguing with Zephyr yesterday, you should watch this webcast..
. It's more like the end of the Paris Commune, where the bodies of the communards were lined up like cord wood.
-------------------------
now, if it were "bodies of bankers", I would be all for it.
Every american should see this webcast
npr = cat shit and shillery
badger boy. Counterpointer and I discussed the same thing about DC. One is the VP on his regular flight. C said he was seeing unmarked.
They aren't Park Police. I saw a Blackhawk? flying low and fast over the Potomac the other day. With the Pentagon so close a flight of three usually means a Theater Command type is in town. The rest? I don't know.
In Nova there is a lot of medevac traffic for Fairfax Hospital. There is a police? one that hovers in the same spot over 66 for years now. There is a fair amount of Top Secret office space here. Maybe they are cranking up for the Somalia smackdown? FLying staffers and such around?
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
those chucklefuks just said the fed saved the banks and prevented a depression.
chucklefuk #2 just said he didn't know what injecting liquidity meant.
Well, Otis, didn't they???
/ducks
The nintendo civ is great so far.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
TJ, widespread discontent would also be met by overwhelming state force.
We can't even pacify Afghanistan; how do you think our forces would fare against a good portion of America? That's not even counting the fact that a lot of military would fight *with* the citizenry against an oppressive state.
Sure, you can turn a foreign country into a parking lot, but there's NWIH you do that to your own country. It's all about control, not killing, and you simply can't do crowd control from an F-22.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
swamp otis, not thrilled with the webcast, but the Fed did prevent a meltdown for sure.
We can't even pacify Afghanistan; how do you think our forces would fare against a good portion of America?
Eisenhower had a plan when he designed the interstate highway system.
It was moving troops and equipment rapidly.
TJ,
You don't use weapons unless you have to. Fear works wonders. Wrapping it up in the flag works even better.
I figure when the local country music station starts playing music by the likes of Alan Jackson singing about its time for a revolution then you know the weirdness factor is really going to go up a notch.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
"Well, Otis, didn't they???"
we shall see soon enough.
i say no. just look at citi booking 2+ billion in income for what they could do.
namely the value of what they owe went down so they said essentially, "if we bought it back we would buy it back 2+ billion cheaper." then they booked that as income.
you can't book income for what you might do if you had more money.
that is not a sign of health.
same comics in WFC.
If the military is tasked to squash civil unrest and is asked to destroy Olde Oak Estates, they will stage a coup first.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
"swamp otis, not thrilled with the webcast, but the Fed did prevent a meltdown for sure."
they delayed a total collapse. meltdown has occurred.
chucklefuk#1 "they are not going to collapse. the government took them over."
ahem. they took them over because they collapsed into insolvency.
Yeah, I explained that to my mother. She was amazed & horrified, as anybody
would be.
But you have to be a non-moron to understand it. And be willing to exercise a few of
the brain cells.
Still, this is so ridiculous, that one would think someone would let out a war-cry and
start explaining it, over and over again.
The hub is convinced that things are getting better. I want to stay married after 42 years
and so have reached the un-hunh, ok, yes, dear stage.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
It was moving troops and equipment rapidly.
Yep, he learned that from Hitler's autobahn. The only problem is where do you move them quickly when *everywhere* is a problem.
Believe me, I don't see this happening, but the idea that the state can impose itself on anything but a fraction of the population for a limited period of time is ludicrous.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Agreed, Nova. My son was in the Rangers and there's no way they'd shoot civilians.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
Believe me, I don't see this happening, but the idea that the state can impose itself on anything but a fraction of the population for a limited period of time is ludicrous.
Especially in the US. Imagine all the Youtube videos.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
. . . there's no way they'd shoot civilians.
So, I gather you didn't do undergrad at Kent State.
Well, the highway system could move things quickly when it was built. Not anymore.
Rush hour, you know. There was a couple of weekends when I was going to school in DC and living in Balto when it took forever. I could make it in about 50 minutes at best. That was 40 and more years ago.
This was a long time ago. I really don't think tank drivers are willing to squash whole lines of cars.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
They wouldn't shoot civilians en masse.
There would be some incidents.
Unless they were covered up, and after a while you can't cover up everything, everybody'd be horrified.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
sportsfan, funny but they didn't do it a second time.
No, what you need to do is get organized. Build a compound or three and isolate yourself from Joe6Pack. Then they will fry you like a Dennys breakfast with napalm if they feel the need.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
They don't need the Highway, National guards all over as well as heavy air transport. I don't think they would shoot either especially if no one shots at them.
everybody'd be horrified. . . and they would put away their pitchforks.
I never understood why they thought Ruby Ridge was so important. Seems that if you
just ignored the nutsos, they'd fade away on their own.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
"I think they're afraid they will preside over the collapse of the American... system" (paraphrasing)
Wow, they've been lurking here fore sure!!!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
nova, agree, hiding in plain sight is the best form of concealment.
Everyone's saying the guns sales are up because the gun buyers think O will restrict guns.
Reading here, I was just assuming that they were planning to use them for defense, and O's posture had little to do with it; they'd be buying just as much if McCain had won.
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
We have a system?
lawyerliz--finance the REOs.
nova: de-tin hatting threads since
after the crash, dot net.
like a litle sack of money.
everybody'd be horrified. . . and they would put away their pitchforks.
Nah. You don't even pull out the pitchforks unless you know what you're up against.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
After the Kent State shootings, student protests declined as I recall. It didn't seem worth getting shot for.
Major props to CR!!!!
------------------
sacrealstats
YES YES YES... They're giving props to CR!!! BOOYAH!!!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Woot! CR getting his props!!!!
woo hoo!
Congrats on the shout-out!
Futures are down a bit:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
these guys seem really nice.
"as a journalist i'm not supposed to express opinion."
spayed puppy.
fyooking fool has been doing nothing but expressing opinions.
clueless.
Wow. A blog is helping to drive national discussion of policy. Congratulations, Bill.
. . .they'd be buying just as much if McCain had won.
Agree. Liz, people see what's going down . . . or, if they don't see it, they feel it.
Lefty, I thought it was because they stopped drafting as many future leaders of America. No draft, no fear, back to getting laid and polishing the resume.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Wow. A blog is helping to drive national discussion of policy. Congratulations, Bill.
newbie?
------------------
sacrealstats
Props to CR have been duly earned and are well-deserved.
Do we get more wing nuts who want talk about teabags, j-people, and how Obama can hit a hoop from half court now?
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Yeah, only been lurking here since 2006. Just surprised anyone listens in on this particular echo chamber. 
Cfuk#2 "you might understand if you watched as much cnbc as we do"
say no more.
60 Minute segment tonight on the meltdown of 401Ks with lots of tearful people. And a brazen spokesman for the industry who shamelessly defended the funds most people put in 401Ks. It brings back with a vengeance the debate over privatizing Social Security. Hard to believe today that people were such fools they wanted Americans to put all their savings in the stock market. Of course today if more Americans had more generous SS benefits and no 401K they would be a lot better off. I would hope the Obama administration would get rid of 401Ks and vastly increase the role of SS in people's lives. Of course it won't since it is still hand in glove with Wall Street and its crappy profiteers.
What does \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||////////////////////////// represent?
Cfuk #1 "we have a very long tradition of backing up our debt and responsible federal reserve policy"
is this what anti depression pills do for you?
hello, the fed is printing money to but the debt. that is the back up.
monetizing the debt is not the same as servicing the debt.
Yeah, only been lurking here since 2006. Just surprised anyone listens in on this particular echo chamber.
Ha! Yeah, it's all relative. I do have it on good authority that those in higher power subscribe to CR for more than just the pretty graphs. We're a real-time focus group.
------------------
sacrealstats
Good line on the dollar:
"We're lucky. We have some really bad competition."
First time I've posted, after four years of lurking.
The "coal wars" are true. Supposedly the first time the US airforce ever machined gunned anyone from the air.
My great-grandfather was killed in the coal wars. He was a coal miner. Nothing noble, wrong place at the wrong time. Dynamited in the company store.
My grandfather was never allowed by his mother to work in the mines. Left home at 16 to join the US navy. That was 1938. Got out in 1945.
The coal wars are a great shining example of how government, and capitalism, can be utterly wrong and immoral.
Nothing wrong with 401K and IRA's. Greedy uneducated people lost money in their accounts not their advisors. Just another displaced responsibility and claim victim. SS is broke and you want them to screw us more? No thank you.
"They're not going to let that happen"
Hmmm... heard lots of people say that about the stock market going below 10K, or housing prices dropping 30%, etc.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Cfuk #1 channeling cramer, "the worst case scenarios are shockingly bad. it's not gonna happen. they are not gonna let that happen. it's not gonna happen."
i thought we already surpassed the worst case scenarios.
Ten years down the road, if the Europeans show that their union is stable because of a mega US global banking bailout, will the Chinese still think of investing in the dollar?
if they don't stop giggling i'm going into strangle mode.
hu huh. huh huh. are they from Orlando?
CR, could you ask them what can be done in order for us not to repeat the Japanese scenario?
(let's say banks will be safe. However, how could we limit the impact of bad loans they will be sitting on for years to come? )
thankies.
p.s. it was 107 @ 3 pm
also, the government "subsidy" of low interest rates for RE loans did help to inflate the latest bubble. What can we do to make sure that current government subsidies (~4.5 ir) don't backfire?
Here is what Wikipedia has on the coal wars...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_Coal_Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain
They cracked me up when closing with the idea that Fed will someday be able to withdraw their support from the markets.
I just don't see it happening that way.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
swamp otis, whew, that was close, but the program is over.
Sportsfan said "There would have been calls for the violent overthrow of the government . . . and not just from Idaho"
-----------
Just a clarification, Sportsfan.
Secession is not "violent overhthrow of the government". Secession is when you've decided to walk away from a relationship with slandering trash such as yourself. The "violent" part comes when that trash can't deal with being abandoned.
CR . . . . .
Nice plug for CR during the show. Interesting concept. A visual BLOG on steroids.
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
NPR:
"and now for an expose' on the trade in blue chinchilla fur and its implications for the global banking system."
I'm robert seagull (feign best kermit the frog nasality).
In a significant shift, White House and Treasury Department officials now say they can stretch what is left of the $700 billion financial bailout fund further than they had expected a few months ago, simply by converting the government's existing loans to the nation's 19 biggest banks into common stock
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/business/20bailout.html?_r=1&ref=business
So here is the latest mortgage related fraud going on.
Buyer files for $8,000 first time home buyer tax refund.
Buyer gets said refund.
Buyer uses $8,000 then actually buys the home they said they had previously bought when they filed for a tax credit.
Since the IRS made the tax credit able to be received as part of the 2008 taxes even if you buy 2009 and that they don't check if you actually bought a home, some agents got this brilliant idea. I have heard stories of one arrest related to doing this type of thing. But I wonder just how prevelant this is out there.
Broward Horne, you're the only one who mentioned secession, but thanks for pointing out that's it's something other than anything we were discussing.
You guys been following Montana's recent actions? Interesting...
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Sterlings NYT link is the biggest story of the weekend, and as usual, it happens Sunday after hours.
mp, you called this months ago.
Great to see CR get full kudos from these excellent people from NPR.
They (Alex and Adam) were cowed by the prospect of letting one of the big banks go bust. I think they've been convinced by Geithner and Bernanke and others that you can't close down a big bank with no chance of a panic. I honestly think they are wrong, as long as it is done right. Say at the beginning that all depositor and counterparty obligations will be honored, and you draw the sting out of the reaction.
You guys been following Montana's recent actions? Interesting...
She's a little young for you, I think.
------------------
sacrealstats
Pump the market so the insiders can sell out at the top before the big 2010-2011 crash.
Did Alex & Adam seem somewhat "hog-tied" with some of their answers? Are they employed by NPR or are they independent? Either they were being careful or not wanting to step on toes it seems.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
She's a little young for you, I think.
LOL!!! BTW, Billy & Miley live not far away.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
In a significant shift, White House and Treasury Department officials now say they can stretch what is left of the $700 billion financial bailout fund further than they had expected a few months ago, simply by converting the government's existing loans to the nation's 19 biggest banks into common stock
If you have a market cap of $2B and the govt. converts $20B worth of debt into common stock, isn't that de facto nationalization?
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
CR, as a practical matter, it takes an hour to drive from Laguna Beach to Santa Monica. So how can you be posting a half hour before this event begins? Do you have a computer with cell connection strapped to your body?
Nearly all blogging platforms let you pre-write posts to be "published" online at a set time.
CR: you should grab dinner at Babalu on Montana Ave in Santa Monica. Great food.
http://theguide.latimes.com/santa-monica/restaurants/babalu-venue
A more visceral sense of the Coal Wars can be had by watching the film "Matewan."
Black Star Ranch, I don't know their exact status (as employees, journalists, etc) but they have a broad audience, and I know they have been scrupulously balanced but honest in their prior extensive reporting on this crisis. I think they recognize that it's best to tread carefully, and get it right before they say anything definite. They are reporters providing objective information to the public first, not political activists. I prefer their approach.
"CR: you should grab dinner at Babalu on Montana Ave in Santa Monica. Great food."
Seriously, CR, eat at the park. Do they still feed the thousands of homeless every night in the park there? Peoples Socialist Republic of Santa Monica - what memories - my oldest daughter was conceived there. LOL.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Nearly all blogging platforms let you pre-write posts to be "published" online at a set time.
A clue is the even post time: Posted by CalculatedRisk on 4/19/2009 08:30:00 PM
Blogger sets the post time to when you start writing the post, unless you set it manually.
------------------
sacrealstats
The Automatic Earth ...
Ilargi: I was thinking on this lovely sunny Sunday that we've all here, me first of all, been so pre-occupied with financial bubbles, all the way from the 1930's to tech stocks to housing, that we have been completely overlooking the fact we have recently entered a new bubble, one that risks having an even more profound effect on our lives than the previous ones. While I'm tempted to call it a credit bubble, and that name would be correct, I'll choose another one, just to avoid confusion. We are in a credibility bubble. And it's about to pop.
I've been saying for months that what the media insists on labeling a financial crisis has long since turned into a full-blown political one. Along with many, if not most, I was naive enough for a short while to think a change of presidency could or would make a difference, that the political crisis might be averted and we could focus on finance alone. But that's not true, is it, that hasn't happened?! >>>>>>>
From The Automatic Earth ...
GAO team wins approval for fake medical product
Fictitious review board also OK'd in screening probe
Government investigators looking into lax screening of medical research said yesterday they easily won approval from a private independent review board of a fake product to be used in medical testing on human subjects. The Government Accountability Office also said it was able to register with the Health and Human Services Department a fictitious institutional review board, a panel of doctors and scientists that must approve any medical drug or device to be used in federally funded testing on humans. The president of this fake board was a dog named Trooper. The GAO said its investigation showed the system "is vulnerable to unethical manipulation, particularly by companies or individuals who intend to abuse the system or to commit fraud."
"Do they still feed the thousands of homeless every night in the park there? Peoples Socialist Republic of Santa Monica."
they do. However it is not the homeless charities that makes them socialist but rather their city codes & city council.
"However it is not the homeless charities that makes them socialist but rather their city codes & city council "
.......it's nice to know some things never change. I imagine my little front porch on the boardwalk still gets urinated on every night, too.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
"The president of this fake board was a dog named Trooper. "
~~~~
Can I get my cat ( Binky) a job on a medical review board ?
He needs the money !
Comrade de Chaos (member) wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 8:06pm.
" 'Do they still feed the thousands of homeless every night in the park there? Peoples Socialist Republic of Santa Monica.'
they do. However it is not the homeless charities that makes them socialist but rather their city codes & city council."
And the city council is voted in by a very committed segment of the voting-eligible population - renters who benefit from rent control imposed by the city council. Nice. You really can vote yourself some property rights. A lot cheaper than paying for them.
"Anonymous wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 7:37pm.
Pump the market so the insiders can sell out at the top before the big 2010-2011 crash."
check out the insider trading data and flow of funds data. they are selling out now, not next year.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=t...
"I imagine my little front porch on the boardwalk still gets urinated on every night,"
SMC got nastier in the last 2 years, with the exemption of city hall surrounding areas. Ironically, Venice got much cleaner & safer. SMC is trying to level the field by luxury condo developments. (they were late jumping on bandwagon & just finished those, nothing fancy compared to Marina Del. ) Doubt it will work, mixing Luxury & Subsidized Housing rarely does.
SMC should have developed something similar to Grove (3 rd street), however their vision starts & ends with milking the promenade while doing little for its tenants but raising taxes.
CR (Bill?), congrats!
Guys, can the talk about social uprising. We'd have to have a 400pct increase in U3 before that happened. We are one or more UNKNOWN shocks away from any of those scenarios from happening.
You are living in the new world today (already). The worst long-term outcomes of this episode? Well, it may just be the dissolution of any sense of responsibility among the populace (a process that's been inderway for awhile)... Maybe the end of the illusion that any of our systems are legitimate? As long as we are the worlds' reserve currency and the fed's presses are working, the fantasy will drag on somewhat like it is right now. The Oligarchy remains.
Hey, there are much worse outcomes. Sucks to watch the people get just that much poorer in the process.
-- If I know anything, it's that I know nothing
CR (Bill?), congrats!
Guys, can the talk about social uprising. We'd have to have a 400pct increase in U3 before that happened. We are one or more UNKNOWN shocks away from any of those scenarios from happening.
You are living in the new world today (already). The worst long-term outcomes of this episode? Well, it may just be the dissolution of any sense of responsibility among the populace (a process that's been inderway for awhile)... Maybe the end of the illusion that any of our systems are legitimate? As long as we are the worlds' reserve currency and the fed's presses are working, the fantasy will drag on somewhat like it is right now. The Oligarchy remains.
Hey, there are much worse outcomes. Sucks to watch the people get just that much poorer in the process.
-- If I know anything, it's that I know nothing
SS is broke and you want them to screw us more? No thank you.
Spoken like a true born and bred ****. First of all, its no where near broke! Secondly, the performance of social security is better than the private equity beloved by ersatz conservatives. And finally it would have done a lot better if it were not continuously raided by congress to fund pointless brutal wars and outright graft by the rich elite.
Sorry for posting twice. Getting used to doing this from the blackberry.
hobo railroad. Flat broke men stealing free rides on CR.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i493p9GGAvQ
RockyR,
The "social uprising" was a tangent off something Pavel & I were discussing.
The point I was trying to make is that broad society is facing the same choices we're now seeing with regards to the GM BK, cash-strapped government agencies, etc. -- that of worker interests being in direct conflict with those of retirees. If it comes down to workers vs. retirees, the workers will ultimately win regardless of the numbers.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
I like something that was said (think by Alex). It's interesting that both left and right dislike those bail outs. The left doesn't like the fact that social funds bail out the rich. The right doesn't like the idea of bailing out failed enterprises, which should die out and make space for new businesses.
People, finally most of us have something in common!
patientrenter,
Just an observation...it would seem that many of Obama's "independent" and swing voters would be least receptive to the truth. At least in my family, those with the most financial problems and the least responsability voted for "change". Many of them voted Republican in past elections or did not vote at all in the past.
Zero Hedge: Bill Miller Correct: "Value" funds burying quants... for now
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/bill-miller-correct-value-funds.html
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Chaos,
That's what makes it so dangerous.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
patientrenter wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 8:14pm.
And the city council is voted in by a very committed segment of the voting-eligible population - renters who benefit from rent control imposed by the city council. Nice. You really can vote yourself some property rights. A lot cheaper than paying for them.
Yes, and you are about to see this on a grand scale via the Obama administration.
"Guys, can the talk about social uprising"
There is no point in social uprising. What might happen is social outcry that will force politicians act differently.
w wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 8:38pm.
Just an observation...it would seem that many of Obama's "independent" and swing voters would be least receptive to the truth. At least in my family, those with the most financial problems and the least responsability voted for "change".
Gee, I wonder why they did that? Maybe, they think big government is their best chance for a "freebie"?
"That's what makes it so dangerous."
well, there is always a hope (doesn't relate to current administration slogan) that change in Paradigm might bring social (doesn't relate to socialism) innovation forward. When faced with danger humans ether do something very stupid or ingenious. There is no middle. Let's hope for ingenious.
p.s. and prepare for stupid. : )
She told me that Kiev was really Russian
Kiev was the first capital of Russia from about 7th to 13th centuries, when it was destroyed by the Mongol Horde. It became a major city again in the 18th century, but now as the largest Ukrainian city. Unlike the eastern part of Ukraine, Kiev is not dominated by ethnic Russians or even by Russian speakers.
About 80% of the thousand free dinner in Santa Monica are illegal Mexicans, only a few are homeless. I enjoy paying my taxes so illegal Mexicans can eat and take American jobs, makes me pround.
Isn't there a nice medical emergency center down the street in case a chicken bone goes down the wrong way? I hope so because I hate see those poor illegal Mexicans suffer any more then they already do. I was thinking we should also provide housing for illegal Mexicans in Santa Monica, hate to see them sleeping in the park, it is just not right they are not able to watch telemundo on the taxpayers dime.
It's interesting that both left and right dislike those bail outs.
It is the"consistent inconsistency" that drives many people mad:
- Either you have to adept a laissez faire approach and let banks fail (privatize both gains and losses)
- Or you have to regulate banks very tightly and really exercise government control when the government takes controlling equity stakes in failing banks (socialize both gains and losses)
Propping up failing banks by giving them unlimited and very low cost access to taxpayer's funds fits neither left nor right ideology. It benefits only Wall Street and people who get paid by Wall Street (like Summers)
Well, g'night all. I am crushed by sanityclause pointing out that the majority of US voters could not stomach my honest 6-point manifesto (5:40pm) that levels with the public. Sigh. I am doomed to suffer for the inabilities of others, and so are most of the rest of the responsible people. I am beginning to think Werner's Germany is better managed - by its politicians and the voters.
They should do a show in Santa Monica called "Planet Mexcio"
Can you imagine an American from the 40s that fought in WWII and then helped build the greatest country on earth land in Los Angeles and wonder where his/her country went?
Los Angeles looks more and more like a classic Mexican city each year as more local Mexican politicians get elected. Why would anyone choose to live in Los Angeles anyway? What a cess pool?
Check out the new MetLife study on the American Dream. Seismic changes in Americans' attitudes about life, work, relationships. Priorities being rearranged. The whole report can be pulled up on Google in pdf. Very informative & fits in nicely with the present discussion.
"According to the third annual MetLife study, the last twelve months have not only had a profound impact on Americans' financial stability, they have also had a dramatic effect on how Americans define and approach the dream. This year's study reveals that the American dream has been revised - not reversed - and is now buoyed by American pragmatism rather than consumerism. These tectonic shifts would typically be expected to span decades. Yet, according to MetLife's research, the country has experienced major changes year-over-year that will likely have a lasting impact on how Americans achieve and sustain the dream."
http://www.metlife.com/about/press-room/us-press-releases/index.html?com...
Kiev has tons of hot horny women. Don't tell anyone.
Yes, that is how anybody feels after get robbed blind. First you go into shock and then you retrench. However, this time we all know who did the robbing! The right reaction would be to take action and drag a few politicians and wall street executives through the streets.
theres been a lotta talk on this thread about civil unrest leading to TPTB deciding to use some part of the armed forces against the civilian population
get it straight, violence would only work against your cause
peaceful resistance is far more powerful and effective
just for the sake of debate and discussion, examples of peaceful resistance might be some of the following
1. what happens if 10 % of the population drives the legal minimum speed limit on the highway for just one day
2. what happens if 1% of the population visits certain banks, everyone opening one new account, not hurting anyone and not doing anything, just filling the room full of people till there is a line out into the street
3. or how about opening many many accounts with very small balances and then shifting the money around
can anyone think of a law thats violated by any of these acts? if so then i for one would never advocate breaking the law...its not necessary
mt
"There is no point in social uprising."
There is also no point in having an entrenched oligarchy that squanders a nations productivity in moronic rent-seeking behavior.
I won't tell anyone anonymous, since Ukraine has an AIDS epidemic.
I might be wrong, but I think the intent was to be able to move troops and equipment from coast to coast, as needed, to counter either a Soviet threat, or a ChiCom threat, rather than quelling civil unrest.
First of all, its no where near broke!
when Uncle Sam owes you $4.5 Trillion that it'll never be able to pay back, it's pretty close to being broke
My six point manifesto:
1. Abolish the federal reservce.
2. Drag the treasury secretary (past and president), Bush, Clinton, Bush Sr., 2/3 of congress, 90% of the senate through the streets and lock them all up at gitmo forever.
3. Institute some kind of hard currency standard.
4. Immediatly take all banks into bankruptcy and sell of the assets, get back as much as possible for taxpayers
5. Round up and deport all illegal Mexicans in a huge nationwide sweep and institute a shot to kill policy at the border (if you treaspass on my property, I shoot to kill, it is the American way)
6. Tax the hell out of companies that offshore America jobs to India and China.
"Can you imagine an American from the 40s that fought in WWII and then helped build the greatest country on earth land in Los Angeles and wonder where his/her country went?"
I think he would proabbly be more alarmed at having a black president and woman secretary of state.
A woman named Janet Tavakoli on C Span Q&A just gun-decked all the usual suspects by name, almost choked BrianLamb (he was sputtering at the candor). She is somewhere between Simon Johnson and Denninger, has worked at a lot of IB's and knows how (if not where) the bodies are buried. Worth looking up the C Span archive...
"Can you imagine an American from the 40s that fought in WWII and then helped build the greatest country on earth land in Los Angeles and wonder where his/her country went?"
Its called progress.
http://www.wilmottwiki.com/wiki/index.php/Tavakoli,_Janet
Janet Tavakoli is the founder and president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc., a Chicago-based consulting firm that provides expert experience and knowledge about maximizing value in the capital markets in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Janet Tavakoli earned her B.S. in Chemical Engineering from the Illinois Institute of Technology and an M.B.A. in Finance from the University of Chicago. She is the former Executive Director, Head of Financial Engineering in the Global Financial Markets Division at Westdeutsche Landesbank in London. She headed market risk management for the capital markets group for Bank One in Chicago. Tavakoli headed the asset swap trading desk at Merrill Lynch in New York, headed mortgage backed securities marketing for Merrill Lynch in New York, and headed mortgage backed securities marketing to Japanese clients for PaineWebber in New York.
Good night, all
or how about opening many many accounts with very small balances and then shifting the money around
-------
I just closed a credit card because the bank charged a minimum $1.50 on a $13.50 CREDIT BALANCE.
I wouldn't trust them with a dime, even as a protest.
I'm off to bed. Another bit of relief... or frustration... for us all:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBpHzUC3dzAw&refer=home
Zero Percent on Treasury Bills as China, Fed Converge (Update1)
STORY TO FOLLOW.
Anyone conclude that there just may be too many money changers ?
"I think he would proabbly be more alarmed at having a black president and woman secretary of state."
I've been lucky to know a number of WWII vets...gentlemen all. They would have no problem with a black president or a female sec. of state. They believed in the promise of this nation & they fought long & hard to preserve it.
They would say "shame on you" to the " Secesh."
this public pension fund access scandal is spreading like wildfire. i'd imagine that it's occurring in almost every state. kind of amazing that people are shocked that access to these funds required illegal kickbacks. sort of like how the financial aid offices at many schools were busted giving preferential access to student debt pushers.
Ms. Tavakoli's CV belies her point of view - she appears to be a (dare I say) a Tanta of structured finance.
I wonder what MetLife is going to write once China takes over America as the world's super power in 5-10 years.
Dumping all the country's debt from private to public (future taxpayers) will go down in history as the act that destroyed America.
The Great GW Bush and Paulson kicked off the great train robbery. This will ensure a global depression that will last a long, long time and will open the door for China to take over as world leader.
China will soon launch is first modern aircraft carrier with many more to follow, and they are paying CASH.
The BRIC countries are going to be the ones the destroy the USD as world currency, nothing the group of 7 can do about it.
Brazil can easily replace America as the "bread basket to the world" or to other BRIC countries that is. The people that say India and China are in trouble do not take Brazil and the huge resource well in South America and South Africa for that matter into account. Typical America is the center of the world thinking. America's role will be replaced by Brazil.
Not sure if there will be a WWIII in between or how all the geopolitics plays out, but that is the path.
You heard it here first.
Leaked stress tests:
http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/2009/04/leaked-bank-stress-test-r...
16 of 19 banks "technically' insolvent.
>They believed in the promise of this nation & they fought long & hard to preserve it.
and Bush Sr., Clinton, and Bush destroy it in under 20 years.
Ask a single WWII Vet still alive what they think about illegal Mexicans, offshoring to India and China, and you will get the truth.
16 of 19 banks "technically' insolvent.
------
Hoocooda.... oh never mind
Is that a residual from being conquered by the Mongol Whores?
"You really can vote yourself some property rights. A lot cheaper than paying for them. "
But more difficult than inheriting them from an old grant from the King of England.
RockyR,
The silence is deafening don't you think??? With the metrics available, we should see people in the streets, about two months a go. Hell, six months ago.
But they are not, they are digging in, keeping their head down. Just because you don't see it, doesn't mean its not there. That's the point, its not there and ergo doesn't register with the collective conscience.
Go out do dinner. There are lots of nice cars in the parking lot, things aren't that bad.
But of course they are dear. There are probably ONLY nice cars there. Not necessarily a cross section of society, just the idiots with a semblance of a disposable income and no better sense than to eat at home. Don't worry, they will figure it out by default, not by design.
Little old ladies wearing shabby designer clothes about 10 years past when they should have been cut into rags, trying desperately to hang on to a semblance of what was.
Your inability to understand that your personal experience is not the totality of human experience leads me to believe that you might be a realtor.
>16 of 19 banks "technically' insolvent.
and the news is what?
America has been "technically" insolvent ever since Reagan's bright 'star wars' ideas on using the printing press to out spend the U.S.S.R.
We are a country a realtors, what else is left?
"mock turtle (member) wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 9:06pm.
theres been a lotta talk on this thread about civil unrest leading to TPTB deciding to use some part of the armed forces against the civilian population
get it straight, violence would only work against your cause"
.
.
if the PTB persecute violence on the people it is likely to backfire on them. the people don't trust the government anymore. they broadcast their lies so loudly anyone can hear.
Tavakoli coined "Hurricane Ponzi" over a year ago.
"Anyone conclude that there just may be too many money changers ? "
Hence my handle.
the PTB, PPT, have shot their wad and painted themselves into a corner with the "stress test" charade. if everyone "passes" nobody believes them and the market crashes. if some fail, the failures will be big enough that the market crashes. their assumptions are already blown. the end results will be further bailouts, which of course implies bigger insolvencies than previously.
it's poker now.
oh sure, they will pump the market on the release of the "results". but watch the insider selling and flow of funds from stocks. the insiders will take the gift.
then,
.
.
.
elmo
.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOPcJqZaXj4&feature=related
Lovely NYtimes article on debt settlement companies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/business/20settle.html?hp
Get this bit at the end : yet another example of why we are in the mess we are in today.
"The Federal Trade Commission has successfully pursued seven cases against debt settlement companies since 2001, but one of the agency's commissioners, J. Thomas Rosch, said that such cases take time and staff.
"I favor self-regulation that's not a fig leaf," Mr. Rosch said.
Ya know, Jas really has a point. It's all about the dumb and the fraudulent in this country. And it's easy to see who is winning.
HAL : I'm afraid. I'm afraid, Dave. Dave, my mind is going. (CHONG : Dave's not here.)
I follow a lot of stuff but missed Ms. T until tonight.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124019360346233883.html#mod=djemalertNEWS
WSJ
Bank Lending Keeps Dropping
Analysis of Treasury Data Paints Starker Picture Than Official Government Snapshots
Lending at the biggest U.S. banks has fallen more sharply than realized, despite government efforts to pump billions of dollars into the financial sector.
According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Treasury Department data, the biggest recipients of taxpayer aid made or refinanced 23% less in new loans in February, the latest available data, than in October, the month the Treasury kicked off the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
The total dollar amount of new loans declined in three of the four months the government has reported this data. All but three of the 19 largest TARP recipients with comparable ...
Yeh, I saw that FFDIC - looks like hope is the only plan left in town. Well, hope and a shirtload of propaganda. Something about green shoots...or whatever. Rubbish.
HAL : I'm afraid. I'm afraid, Dave. Dave, my mind is going. (CHONG : Dave's not here.)
1929er (member) wrote on Sun, 04/19/2009 - 9:14pm.
"A woman named Janet Tavakoli on C Span Q&A just gun-decked all the usual suspects by name, almost choked BrianLamb (he was sputtering at the candor). She is somewhere between Simon Johnson and Denninger, has worked at a lot of IB's and knows how (if not where) the bodies are buried. Worth looking up the C Span archive..."
1929'er. thanks for that tip. I just listened (at http://www.q-and-a.org/Program/?ProgramID=1228), and it was excellent. She knows her stuff - she's a high-level technical insider from the IBs. I'll be looking out for more of her work.
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there is a persistent belief among the PTB that things will be as they say because they bought all the media outlets. however, information is flowing at light speed in this and other arenas. communication is the basis of culture and culture is the basis of evolution. we are in a moment of hyper communication and thus hyper evolution. people are transforming from the role of unquestioning consumer into pragmatic individuals out of economic necessity. all the announcements we call news will not stop the process. all the commercials we accept as reality will lose all meaning when people lose all their money and are them incapable of participating in the feel good, buy now, reality.
even if TV and the internet is all somehow turned off, people will only go outside and talk to their neighbors.
.
.
.
and this is precisely what the scam artists and propaganda profiteers should fear the most.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/business/20bailout.html?_r=1&hp
NYT
U.S. May Convert Banks' Bailouts to Equity Share
WASHINGTON - President Obama's top economic advisers have determined that they can shore up the nation's banking system without having to ask Congress for more money any time soon, according to administration officials.
(FDIC's army of in house lawyers busy at work.)
late Sunday night OT/ the other night I extolled Keith Ledger's performance in The Dark Knight based on the first 65 minutes.
Still great, in my mind. But the film even though made by the inestimable Chris Nolan (see Memento and Following) breaks down
in the 3rd Act. But then again I'm the kind of guy who has watched maybe 4 episodes of the Simpsons lifetime, a few Dreamworks creations,
and a couple of other cartoons.
Sorry, I don't think cartoons are art in any shape or form. Neither did I think much of Keith Haring.
in my guise as the Duke I threw together an anti-Santelli rant of my own
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj6KTCCiS3A
@mock turtle - what you said is pretty clever, but don't underestimate the government's capacity to do the wrong thing. They are moving closer to 1984 than 2010.
Remember the lies to get us into Iraq, and then remember what we did to that country. The government would love to make a few terrorists to chase around here.
We are on planet money?
Firstest !!!