Comments for "NY Times' Leonhardt on House Prices"

Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:27 pm CDT

You can't ride the train if you don't have a ticket with ya'
You need a ticket for the bullet train
Waiting in line in the Japanese station
Get on board the bullet train.

Mandatory Patriot Bond wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:28 pm CDT

But my purchase will fund the government's single family home investments. Prices can never go down.

bobnbot (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:30 pm CDT

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iceman (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:30 pm CDT

In my opinion, I think the over-riding emotion in most crashes is apathy. I don't sense that in the housing market yet ... some shame, some gleeful interest in the crash, quite a bit of bottom calling. In 1999 if you told someone that you worked at an Internet company, you were treated like a soon-to-be minted millionaire. By 2003, if you someone that you worked at an Internet company, they felt embarrassed for you and tried to move the discussion to something else. Housing's allure is still very fresh.

----
"no one is pricing in low, mid teens unemployment in any of their assumptions." - Meredith Whitney

Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:33 pm CDT

I think Leonhardt is correct that prices will continue to fall.
Bernanke is not making it easy...

Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:34 pm CDT

All the brave talk about prices holding up was just so much packaged air, now comes the despair.

Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:36 pm CDT

MSM = CR + 2 years.

km4 wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:37 pm CDT

Gee what happened to the American dream like Bush ownership society that team Obama seems to have adopted ?
Probably need to get down to 1997 real estate prices for 'possible reset'* of US economy to move out of critical care.
* assuming good enough job formation and other positive extenuating circumstances

Mandatory Patriot Bond wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:38 pm CDT

"Housing's allure is still very fresh"

as fresh as the dog turd you just stepped in.

Why it was seen to be so glamorous I don't know. When your horizon is only long enough to flip the downside of maintenance never appears. A gross misallocation of resources inspired and encouraged by our nations greatest thinkers.

Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:40 pm CDT

No other item bought or sold is as scrutinized as much the real estate comp, and in previous housing booms and busts, there was no internet presence whatsoever.

The internet was like rocket fuel for comps on the way up, and the way down, too.

dr munch (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:41 pm CDT

We need a new acronym.

wawawa (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:42 pm CDT

Michael Husdson, It boils my blood.

Part 1: http://renegadeeconomist.com/headline/michael-hudson-series-part-1-housi...

Part 2: http://renegadeeconomist.com/headline/michael-hudson-series-part-2-bailo...

Part 3: http://renegadeeconomist.com/headline/michael-hudson-series-part-3-incom...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

"RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON"

NorkaWest (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:43 pm CDT

Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 7:36 pm

* reply

MSM = CR + 2 years.

More like:

MSM = CR + 2^2 years.

NorkaWest

MiTurn wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:44 pm CDT

Growing unemployment will only add to the number of distressed properties. No brainer there. And in many areas houses are still overpriced. Hopefully prices will continue to drop.

Citizen Scotto wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:47 pm CDT

And someday mortgage interest rates will go back up to 7.5% and that will drive prices down even more

TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:47 pm CDT

Jim the Realtor has recently posted on the hot SD lower end market, complete with instant sales and multiple offers. As one savvy commenter noted there's "no sign of capitulation", only knife-catchers.

-----

"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"

reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:56 pm CDT

Something that Leonhardt noted in that article: there weren't any investors at the auction. 30K for a Florida condo might be attractive, though! In the 70s, some condos were built in Cape Canaveral -- soft story, frame and stucco -- that sold for 20-25K when new. At that time they were considered luxury boxes, by Cape Canaveral standards, anyway.

Citizen Scotto wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:50 pm CDT

anecdote: Close relative selling home in San Diego for $550k with multiple offers; bought it in 2007 for $605k

Bubblisimo Gerkinov (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:54 pm CDT

...the first bottom will be for residential investment (RI),...

Does RI means REITS?

What else would fall under RI?

Infrequently Updated Website

patientrenter wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 9:58 pm CDT

Real prices will go down, for sure. But it's not quite so clear that nominal prices are going to go down a huge amount more than they already have. The bubble has a leak, but trillions in cheap, easy money are being blown into housing now, until inflation can start to pick up some of the burden of keeping prices high. I see lower nominal prices coming, but the forces being brought to bear to re-inflate the market on a nominal basis are unbelievably strong. Gentlemen and ladies, place your bets!

GDD9000 (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:00 pm CDT

reptilian....one thing to remember about those "attractive" prices...if you are an investor, and you pencil in the rental rate, yeh, it might work. But what are you penciling in for the vacancy rate and turnover. There are SO many options, and so much vacancy in some of these areas, and yet more crap still coming to market. You have to be very careful when you do a rental income calculation in this type of environment, because if you miss on the estimate of how often the place will be unoccupied, you are sunk.

HAL : I'm afraid. I'm afraid, Dave. Dave, my mind is going. (CHONG : Dave's not here.)

patientrenter wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:01 pm CDT

Gerkinov, RI = building and selling new residences (as distinct from re-selling used ones)

Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:01 pm CDT

baseline scenario

"TARP support for unsustainable firms is akin to burning public money while industry stakeholders arrive at a sustainable long-term arrangement. This appears to be the American approach to systemically significant "zombie" firms-to use public resources to cushion their dissolution and restructuring."

shoppingaround (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:03 pm CDT

First remember the mantra: All Real Estate is local. Some markets (CA, AZ, FL, NV) are more volatile than, say, much of the NE. National numbers don't necessarily reflect the extremes your area may or may not be experiencing.

The number of NODs in SoCal have been escalating in the last monthor so , since the moratoriums are now gone. I'm expecting mid-May through July (at least) to have a tons more homes being dumped on the market by banks.

In San Diego county, it's been very hot at the low end--even creeping up to higher mid-range on well-priced properties. There's definitely a euphoria going on. But there's still a ton of inventory at the mid to upper ranges.

Add the next wave of REOs in summer and prices will not "hold" steady.

We are not even CLOSE to a bottom IMHO.

shoppingaround

Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:04 pm CDT

patientrenter

I'll bet against US housing any day where the sun rises

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:05 pm CDT

CR - thanks for the reply on Brian.

.......

Dawg I lost my stuff on that CS reference... thats one of the ways i found my way here and to your joint...

............

Michael - where did you get 'I dont think that means what you think it means' from? were you a lurker? l find that lurkers are usually lurkers and the vociferous are usually just that... what was your last handle?

.................

TJ - I have a friend searching for a starter house in Diego. He says that there is actually competition out there. (Lower end) I believe Jim. Remember Diego peaked in '05 before most...

..........................

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:10 pm CDT

Nades et al

Assuming housing bottoms here due to floods of money pouring into the market, trillions would have been wasted as mortgage esp at 5% is non productive capital. this Money that is diverted from education, technology etc.
I don't Think many have made much from investing in real estate in the past 8 years.

reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:16 pm CDT

Someone looking for a place near (if gas is cheap) San Diego, might consider Temecula. I was there about '02-'04 and it was a boom town -- unbelievable traffic jams -- but is now a major foreclosure area. Rancho Bernardo and Escondido may be similar. I drove to Lake Elsinore, too, which is also off a cliff, and couldn't believe that people would buy there -- it stinks (from the "lake"). At the time there were hand-lettered signs, "will build stick house," on the road between Lake Elsinore and Sun City (??). I will never forget eating breakfast and the next table was full of people talking excitedly about their real estate deals.

Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:11 pm CDT

TJ - I have a friend searching for a starter house in Diego. He says that there is actually competition out there. (Lower end)

~~~~

Depends on how much shadow inventory San Diego has ...

I see another fall as I have read reports that banks are holding 60% of their foreclosure inventory

off the market ...

patientrenter wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:12 pm CDT

nades, San Diego prices overall are still well above their real levels at the bottom of the last cycle. Check the 1996 prices for the homes in a variety of areas, add inflation, and I think you'll find that more of today's prices are higher than lower.

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:12 pm CDT

GDD9000 - a 12% cap rate is a big deal for a handy-man with time on his hands and in the business. Add in some leverage and its a screaming deal! (a five year is what? 1.75%... LOL!)

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:15 pm CDT

I don't Think many have made much from investing in real estate in the past 8 years.

~~~~~

They did if they sold 2-3 years ago ... I did ...

When I got the flyer offering $1 miilion for $2500 a month in payment I started selling ...

The flyer was addressed to : Occupant !

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:18 pm CDT

patientrenter / tim / anon (get a handle bro, good points!)

things could go down further you're right but i think parts of the market, places with constant turn over and the need for rental units (oceanside for example) might be getting close to the bottom.

the shadow inventory is certainly an issue and unknown... I was actually going to write CR about this. the same friend said that the realtor told him that banks just aren't reviewing offers for FC properties.

there was some discussion as to whether banks were reporting their inventory or the sales at FC or something of the like... i didnt understand but was interested.....

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

NorkaWest (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:18 pm CDT

"See article for graphic on house prices to median income by city. "

San Francisco is still number one.

Go SF.

NorkaWest

TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:19 pm CDT

nades,

Per Case-Shiller SD peaked in November '05 and pretty much held there through July '06. However, the peak-to-trough in the 90's was 5 years. That'd put the bottom at least a year and a half off, minimum.

IMHO that bubble wasn't even a shadow of this one. Like with stocks, it's a bear market rally, and the next leg down is going to be brutal.

-----

"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"

Effective Demand (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:22 pm CDT

This issue I am seeing in Ventura County and nearby San Fernando Valley isn't one of strong sales but instead significantly dropping inventory.

The foreclosure moratoriums is preventing REO inventory from getting to market. The belief they can refi or get a loan mod is preventing short sale inventory from getting to market. And the belief by existing home owner with equity who wish to move that they can wait for the market to get better (i.e. prices improve) is preventing normal sales from getting to market.

All this means is historically weak sales but not as weak as the all times low of last year. But few choices for the buyers who are out there. It will be a summer of frustration for buyers & sellers.

Here are trustee sales for 2009 so far for Ventura County as of April 17th:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/trustee-sales-for-la-and-ven...

http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com

TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:23 pm CDT

patientrenter,

Anything short of hyperinflation isn't going to show up nominally in housing, no way no how. For that to happen you have to have wage inflation and excess demand, neither of which are going to happen for at least a decade.

-----

"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"

Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:24 pm CDT

San Diego prices overall are still well above their real levels at the bottom of the last cycle. Check the 1996 prices for the homes in a variety of areas, add inflation, and I think you'll find that more of today's prices are higher than lower.

~~~~

A very good rule of thumb I think ... but why add inflation ...

They will over-correct to the down side ...

The one constant is that the farther from jobs these houses are the more they will tumble

and the slower they will rebound ...

Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:25 pm CDT

the geithner interview was sickening to behold

obama needs to wrench his presidency loose form the bankstas
or
watch his presidency get flushed down the crapper

ps

nemo, the barons article, via the zero hedge link you provided (re forced aig undwinds) how goldie worked the system at taxpayers expense

thanks, word

Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:25 pm CDT

Agree with Tj

Market bottoms are as much about durations as it is about the breadth of the decline. People need to give up.

bearly (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:25 pm CDT

People that have been hanging on by their fingernails are not going to be encouraged. This will lead to another wave of CC defaults and foreclosures. That will be the 2nd half recovery, a surge in credit losses.

mock turtle not logged in wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:26 pm CDT

anon above is mock turtle not logged in

swamp otis (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:26 pm CDT

Dick Cheney demands Barack Obama reveals torture 'success' memos

"Mr Cheney said that he had made a formal request to the CIA for the documents be declassified because he knew that the interrogation process - now banned by Mr Obama - had been very successful, and he wanted the rest of the country to understand."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article61384...

oh, move to dubai already!

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||//////////////////////////

dr munch (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:29 pm CDT

Did jury duty the last two days, till i finally got tossed. Very sad how many potential jurors were just layed off. Northrup, Boeing, Wells, to name a few. Saddest was a guy who was a 7-11 clerk. The judge asked him about past work history and he said he built planes in Long Beach for 15 years. I'm sure the gov't considers assembling taquitos the same as assembling planes.

Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:29 pm CDT

dr much

that is clearly american manufacturing at its best.

patientrenter wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:35 pm CDT

tj, "..only hyperinflation would impact home prices...not before 10 years..."

I don't know if you've done some more review of the 1970's tj, which didn't see hyperinflation, but perhaps you'd help me understand why you think this inflation and house price thing is now either all or nothing, either deflation or hyperinflation.

reptillian (member) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:38 pm CDT

What has Cheney Asked For?

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:38 pm CDT

mock - i figured it was someone who had a clue... didnt know who tho!

:beers:

for any of the midwesterners... (dryfly, et al.) I put a post up for you all...

((yes i assume that there is something in the water that makes you like machines... yes it might be true...))

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

JBR (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:40 pm CDT

OT in the last thread, but very On Topic here. There is no capitulation in L.A., people are still falling for the following... Please enjoy the press release for some new 1500 sq ft condo..., uh, attached SFR's in Hollywood, CA. Have a little kool aide before reading... "appraised" at 769k, 749k LP... Instant Equity!

"These are uncertain times and making a major purchase like a new home in the face of potential market volatility is troublesome for families who remain fearful of buying," states MasterCraft Homes Group CEO, Dan Thompson. "We've worked hard to value-engineer and build new homes that represent the very best value for sophisticated, sustainable urban living. It's with that same diligence that we're able to price homes at The Gatsby well below their most recent appraised values from March of this year. This enables our first phase buyers to buy with the confidence that their purchase price leaves tens of thousands in potential equity appreciation on the table. It also sets buyers on the right course for successful, profitable home ownership.

In addition to The Gatsby Hollywood's reduced sales price, new-home buyers can take advantage of historic low interest rates as well as FHA loans for up to $729,000. Other government-mandated homebuying incentives include recent federal and state tax credits totaling up to $18,000 plus solar energy tax credits up to $3,000. Restrictions to tax credits apply; buyers are encouraged to speak to their tax professional for details. With a 10% down program on the purchase of a new Gatsby home plus the federal and California tax credits, reduced sales price, immediate equity, and other incentives, buyers see an immediate return valuing up to 10% of the homes' purchase price, resulting in an effective $0 down program. 3% down payment programs are also available on select homes."

Look! it's 2006 again!

Yalt (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:40 pm CDT

Not sure if this was already posted, but this is a novel view on the correct pricing of options:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124035639380840961.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yah...

Financial Firms Lobby to Cut Cost of TARP Exit

"At issue are "warrants" the government received when it bought preferred stock in roughly 500 banks over the past six months as part of TARP....

"Today, most of the warrants are essentially worthless, because their exercise price is higher than where most banks' stocks are trading. But the government believes the warrants still have value, since they give the Treasury the right to buy common stock at a set price for 10 years.

"Bankers say it is unfair to charge what amounts to a 'prepayment penalty,' which makes it additionally onerous to escape TARP. Bank representatives say the cost of buying back the warrants could be equivalent to paying 60% annual interest on short-term loans...."

Option premiums = "prepayment penalties" = usury? I'll remember that the next time I think I'm getting gouged on an option buy.

Bob Dobbs (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:40 pm CDT

"So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you're trying to decide when to buy, relax."

30 percent? Out here in Santa Cruz it's more like 60 percent; and you could probably say the same, or worse, for much of the inner SF Bay Area. It's that kind of environment that makes knife-catching so popular around here, both for investors and among homeowners who've waited years for "their piece."

http://www.talesfromthecoast.blogspot.com

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:41 pm CDT

inflation and house price thing is now either all or nothing, either deflation or hyperinflation. ~pr

thats what i think we're about to find out... that inflation and deflation are not mutually exclusive. we had stagflation once and that was kind of a mind-fuck at the time...

this one is really going to blow the socks off the economist... (provided we get some amount of uncertainty in the USD)

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

Yankee (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:42 pm CDT

I am subprime now! Got my 60 day notice. Will be on the breadline shortly. Will report from the front! Why is my sh!tty CEO still in place? It is a complete joke at his point....

Yankee

reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:44 pm CDT

"It's with that same diligence that we're able to price homes at The Gatsby well below their most recent appraised values from March of this year. This enables our first phase buyers to buy with the confidence that their purchase price leaves tens of thousands in potential equity appreciation on the table. It also sets buyers on the right course for successful, profitable home ownership."

I once read Fitzgerald's "The Great Gatsby." Is that where they got the condo's name? The story didn't end well, if I recall correctly.

REally wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:46 pm CDT

But will prices fall in real terms or nominal?

JBR (member) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:47 pm CDT

"I once read Fitzgerald's "The Great Gatsby." Is that where they got the condo's name? The story didn't end well, if I recall correctly."

Yes it is, and yes, you recall correctly.

Effective Demand (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:48 pm CDT

By the way Bank of America made a downward adjustment yesterday to how much they will take from the sales price before accepting a short payoff on HELOC's. It might have a significant effect on the market if all the major HELOC holders start going away for less:

http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/bank-of-america-adjust-short...

Important to note that they still retain the right to go after the borrower for deficiency judgements but they have that right in foreclosure anyways.

http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com

reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:50 pm CDT

"It's with that same diligence that we're able to price homes at The Gatsby well below their most recent appraised values from March of this year. This enables our first phase buyers to buy with the confidence that their purchase price leaves tens of thousands in potential equity appreciation on the table. It also sets buyers on the right course for successful, profitable home ownership."

Wow! This is a lie on its face. If you want to make money, buy when the price is going up, not down!

REally wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:50 pm CDT

C looks for 64B of equity.........its a lot dough!

1 currency now -yogi (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:50 pm CDT

Kcoop can you create buttons for the html functions and other shortcuts? It saves so much typing, thanks.

REally wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:52 pm CDT

blow the socks off the economist
nades

This is indeed the most difficult.....interest rates at near zero (the value of money over time is near zero...money has no value)

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:52 pm CDT

REally what will you use for the deflator in the real vs nominal equation. traditionally cpi but what if that is out of whack. lower housing costs, higher gas costs, cheaper autos, more expensive clothes...

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

bgates wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:53 pm CDT

well, just got through all of the noise on CR posts today.

the clear winner: Japan has a trade deficit in '08... WTF?

runner-up: the insight that the domestic scene (BABD) won't determine the fate of the fed's buy-em-all-let-god-sortemout strategy, but our foreign creditors will

china and japan need the natural resources of the rest of the world. but do they really need anything else? it isn't as if those cultures haven't shown an ability to shut out the outside world out of a justified sense of disgust and confusion before...

REally wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:54 pm CDT

nades - there is no deflator...artificial rates...

sdtfs (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:55 pm CDT

Yankee- you were at a big insurance company? Hope things work out for you.

Re SD RE: Friends looking around bemoaning multiple offers on the homes they wanted. They think maybe the market has bottomed. But when you ask about their search criteria it's very very very specific. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that prices still have some room to fall.

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:58 pm CDT

bgates - you have way more stamina than I, good work!

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

nades (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:59 pm CDT

So you're saying at zero interest rate nominal = real? I got to check out... laser all!

http://econpictures.blogspot.com/

Nuke wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 10:59 pm CDT

Currently looking for an apartment on the Saratoga Springs area. What shocks me is the number of new housing/condos being built in the region. In the towns surrounding Saratoga Springs (Milton, Malta and Wilton in particular, for those familiar with the area), there are dozens of housing sub divisions going up. Most are small (10-20 homes), but the numbers add up. In downtown saratoga, there are 3 luxury condos being built. This is a nice area, but the population is not increasing quickly. Exiting homes are selling at a discount to the new developments. The fact that we are still adding new inventory when there are so many existing homes on the market tells me that expectations are still out of line with reality. Which tells me the bottom is still far off.

reptillian (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:00 pm CDT

"Japan has a trade deficit in '08... WTF?"

I read that VW is on course to overtake Toyota as #1 in vehicle sales (globally). The story said that the reason is that VW has concentrated on selling in growing markets (Brazil and some others), while Toyota is trying to sell into decling markets. Sorry, don't remember where I read it, but it was within the last week.

kcoop (member) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:04 pm CDT

1 currency now -yogi, I'm evaluating various html editors. I will add one at some point. Dealing with copy/paste in CR Companion's editor was a bit of a pain, so I'm going to be careful on this one.

alybaba (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:05 pm CDT

reptillian - the Toyota - VW article

http://www.reuters.com/article/Toyota/idUSLH50480220090417

sdtfs (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:08 pm CDT

Ken- Is auto update on the comments in the works?

reptillian (member) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:10 pm CDT

Thanks!

TJ and The Bear (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:10 pm CDT

he said he built planes in Long Beach for 15 years

I visited the C-17 assembly plant several times. I was amazed planes ever made it out of there because you were hard-pressed to find anyone actually working. Government contracts, union workers... nice planes, though, as far as 'haulers go.

-----

"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"

dryfly (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:12 pm CDT

I read that VW is on course to overtake Toyota as #1 in vehicle sales (globally). The story said that the reason is that VW has concentrated on selling in growing markets (Brazil and some others), while Toyota is trying to sell into decling markets. Sorry, don't remember where I read it, but it was within the last week.

So you are suggesting maybe that big new Tundra plant in Texas wasn't such a great idea?

Am on a business trip 'out east' [some pleasure & family stuff too but not until the weekend]... drove past the Chrysler Belvidere IL assembly plant [shut down last year?] and the Lordstown OH GM plant [shut down more recently?] - both nearly completely empty parking lots. Eerie doesn't begin to describe it.

I am talking MASSIVE operations & capital. Hell they added on to Lordstown just a couple years ago [big paint line?]

Then listening to the local radio news all across IL, IN, OH, PA - nothing but talk of layoffs and more up coming layoffs. Mostly smaller plants that feed into automotive lower tiers. 100 here 200 there. Endless parade of doom & gloom.

We aren't at bottom yet. Or peak doom for that matter.

bgates wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:14 pm CDT

one of my few true regrets is that being a small-time gringo i wasn't able to short VW at that bizarre spike - that kind of fun is rare.

color me impressed, modern mexican VWs have always impressed me as mediocre in quality. viva marketing.

picosec (member) wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 11:19 pm CDT

If anyone's still awake and wants to see an on-topic comment, here's your chance.

Per Redfin, in Oakland, CA the sales price per sq ft peaked at $380 in Sept 2007 (~18 months ago).

It is currently $133/sq ft, or down by 65%.

Of course some neighborhoods are down 10%, others down 80%. Looking at the charts by ZIP it is difficult for me to believe that the lower end can drop much more. OTOH, last week, for the first time in at least a year, more unstressed homes (i.e. higher end) went on the market than REO's or short sales. I'll track that batch as they might be canary in the coal mine regarding the near future of the upper end.

Comments for "NY Times' Leonhardt on House Prices"

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