Comments for "Markets: Another Day at the Casino"
Nemo says:
"Casino?"
I don't think the CR of two years ago would have used that description... Would he?
Nemo Thu Apr 2 15:05:07 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
Uno?
Mannwich Thu Apr 2 15:05:09 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Rally seems to be getting a little long in the teeth.
sportsfan Thu Apr 2 15:06:11 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Things that make me go hmmmm...include the VIX closing a smidge green for the day.
energyecon Thu Apr 2 15:08:09 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
"Nemo says:
Today, 4:05:07 PM
“"Casino?"
I don't think the CR of two years ago would have used that description... Would he? "
Yes, but this kind of volatility wasn't around 2 years ago. This is almost as wild as last fall ... and we know how that turned out.
iceman Thu Apr 2 15:08:27 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Love the title CR!
I periodically send emails to my buddies (regardless of how the markets fared) saying "its days like this I'm glad I dont gamble..."
Good luck GH, your post about being loaded up on puts coincided with the high today. If we have a few consecutive days of red I'm going to wonder if your not Hanky P!
nades Thu Apr 2 15:08:28 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
test
dr munch Thu Apr 2 15:08:58 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
So now banks will mark up the price of their toxic waste. Doesn't that put an end to the Pubic-Private circle jerk announced last week? If the goal is to clear banks' balance sheet...
Whatever. We are setting up a limit down day. I can feel it in my bone.
dr munch Thu Apr 2 15:11:23 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
I thought that casinos had strong regulators in place to keep them from cheating.
Chicago Dude Thu Apr 2 15:11:44 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
The good news is the bando trend is lowering the cost of living. With all the discretionary income in people's pockets (and I only mean pockets), the stock market should rally for several years as bando spend rent/mortgage money on luxury items.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:12:23 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Good to see you Elvis!
Parent Post
nades Thu Apr 2 15:31:56 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
When unemployment and US debt go down I will rejoice even if I give back all my gains. Until then, all the accounting tricks in the world won't get me to go long.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:12:49 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
32,2 million Americans receiving food stamps as of January.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090402/ts_nm/us_hunger_usa
Pavel Thu Apr 2 15:13:18 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
The good news is that Elvis is back in the building
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:15:11 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
As far as I can tell, nobody believes this rally is real. Which means it may have a while to go.
Nemo Thu Apr 2 15:15:23 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
It's going to 9000-9500, but it'll be over between tax day and the 3rd week of May-
Parent Post
Cinco-X Thu Apr 2 15:25:12 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Justice starts taking down fraudsters with the cooperation of Swiss banks: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090402-713763.html
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Thu Apr 2 15:16:14 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
"32,2 million Americans receiving food stamps as of January."
That is almost about the same number of people who said they were at the first Woodstock. Damn Hippies never change.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:16:39 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
For those of you who were wondering what was truly driving this rally, here's the answer:
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Economy/Dow-8000-5-Reasons-Driving-the-Rally/
1.) The Early Bird Gets the Return
2.) G-20 Boosts Global Confidence
3.) Accounting Change Bolsters Balance Sheets
4.) Team Obama Gets Its Act Together
5.) Blue Chips Too Cheap to Resist
But, really, we didn't need those 5 wonderful reasons, did we? There's just one reason. Hat Tip to Jas.
Dopes will be Dopes and Crooks will be Crooks and Crooks and Dopes need each other.
Morocco Bama Thu Apr 2 15:16:49 2009 CDT #
goadam says:
Overture, curtains, lights,
This is it, the night of nights
No more rehearsing and nursing a part
We know every part by heart
Overture, curtains, lights
This is it, you'll hit the heights
And oh what heights we'll hit
On with the show this is it
Tonight what heights we'll hit
On with the show this is it
It goes up because it goes up.
Parent Post
goadam Thu Apr 2 16:09:06 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Pavel
wow.
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 15:17:13 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Im glad I went back to cash. While fun, its a bit wild indeed.
I still say we are headed up to 925/950 before we test the lows. Im not as bearish/technical as Jesse or a few others, but I dont think we will run down to 545.
Then again I dont set the odds.
Gav if you called it right you deserve the profits! Hope you get a good nights sleep.
Barley Thu Apr 2 15:17:22 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Pavel - 1 in 10!
The beacon of the free world, indeed. I hope O mentioned this to the Queen as it would have scored him some points...look'n after the poor and 'al.
Anyone heard Os comments about Cat. - whats this worth in markting dollars?
Barley Thu Apr 2 15:20:01 2009 CDT #
Rajesh says:
first?
Rajesh Thu Apr 2 15:20:32 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
Speaking of casinos, who wants to bet that the mob will run Las Vegas again shortly?
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:21:14 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
"Hat Tip to Jas"
MB that was priceless
Barley Thu Apr 2 15:21:17 2009 CDT #
nades says:
+2
Parent Post
nades Thu Apr 2 15:32:47 2009 CDT #
kahni says:
Barley, why don't you think the market will go to 545? Historical bottoms are made at 6x P/E for the Trailing Twelve Months... if we get an overall earnings of $60, that would mean about 360 and if it is at $80, that would be about $480. We are currently hovering around $65 from the high in 2007 of $87...
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm
kahni Thu Apr 2 15:21:41 2009 CDT #
Gust says:
Dow/Gold ratio ralling up close to 9
Gust Thu Apr 2 15:21:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The levity, good will and high spirits shown by the G20 leadership in the pictures I have seen is reassuring. Hu even cracked a forced smile, a little pained, but recognizable as goodwill. Our fearless world leaders are going to fund the IMF, change some rules here and there, and smooth sailing into the sunset will be experienced by all. I witnessed a classic team building corporate retreat and the confidence building for all of us should be palpable. The stock market shot up and new highs will be forthcoming. I expect unemployment to drop to the low 4s next month and home buying will return to 2006 levels with associated unaffordable prices. Let the good times roll and mmmmmm mmmmm the cake is tasty.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:22:14 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
i resent your calling the markets like a casino
you have no right to insult casinos that way ;)
mock turtle Thu Apr 2 15:22:31 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
So the plan is the banks mark up assets, pass the stress tests, pay back TARP, and then the regulator makes sure they can fail without systemic risk.
Careful with your "significant judgment", wiseguys, it's possible the only people who believe you are the regulators.
(I know, Obama will give them one more chance, "I mean it this time")
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:22:33 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
G20? I prefer G2. Less calories, refreshing, and replenishing my electrolytes. Green is my favorite.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:24:05 2009 CDT #
MS says:
agree with barley and nemo...it's been overbought for too long and it matters not. I still think we get another surprise announcement soon. 1400 points in less then a month....
But the Cramer crowd jumped in today and we know how well that worked out on his last call with gold.
Ciao
MS
MS Thu Apr 2 15:25:02 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
its more like sex
mock turtle Thu Apr 2 15:25:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Elvis is back? Missed the snarky gems. Welcome back.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:25:18 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
How does IMF money get printed again?
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:25:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
they dont have to print their money
IMF = international mother fakers
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:27:38 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
and the united states is the mother of all fakers...provides the largest percentage of funds via the world bank and promissary notes...its all chrysler, or uh fiat
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:29:30 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
<h1 class="h1Smallest">Article III - Quotas and Subscriptions</h1>
<!-- --> <!-- -->
<h2>Section 1. Quotas and payment of subscriptions</h2>
Each member shall be assigned a quota expressed in special drawing rights. The quotas of the members represented at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference which accept membership before December 31, 1945 shall be those set forth in Schedule A. The quotas of other members shall be determined by the Board of Governors. The subscription of each member shall be equal to its quota and shall be paid in full to the Fund at the appropriate depository.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/aa03.htm#1
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:36:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
from wikipedia
Any country may apply for membership to the IMF. The application will be considered first by the IMF's Executive Board. After its consideration, the Executive Board will submit a report to the Board of Governors of the IMF with recommendations in the form of a "Membership Resolution." These recommendations cover the amount of quota in the IMF, the form of payment of the subscription, and other customary terms and conditions of membership.
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:38:33 2009 CDT #
rsj says:
Hey, OT, but stimulus related. It says so in the article Im linking. My question is: How does increasing my foodstamp allotment by 50 dollars really really help stimulate the economy?
yup, due to stimulus the allotment has gone up to one help stimulate and two to help us feed our families due to food prices going up.
http://www.nvdaily.com/news/2009/04/food-stamp-allotments-to-increase.html
As some of you know I am at the much poorer end of the scale. Um, if I can figure out that this is a dumb idea (if the reasons they state are the actual reasons) then why not them.
No taxes get collected on FS so busted there, throwing even more "free" money at something tends not work out well in the long run, and 50? That wouldnt stimulate an ant, nevermind the economy. Oh yeah, and dont they want to stimulate the big items? Housing, autos, Kitchen remodels etc?
There are parts of the article describing how their caseload is going up for this one county. gonna be a rough ride
Thank you for the opportunity to vent a bit.
rsj Thu Apr 2 15:30:59 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
The bottom is in ;)
LOL
Cinco-X Thu Apr 2 15:31:22 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
I do wonder if what we are seeing is the analog to that huge rally of 1930.
Yancey Ward Thu Apr 2 15:32:32 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
So they wined and dined Obama and he pledged a few more hundred billion to the IMF?
And they bought it?
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:32:48 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[NEW HYDE PARK, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kimco Realty Corporation announced that it plans to sell 70,000,000 shares of newly issued common stock in an underwritten public offering pursuant to its effective shelf registration statement previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.]
hooocooodanode ?
<!--- Insert the sidebar information -->
bearly Thu Apr 2 15:33:27 2009 CDT #
nades says:
bearly a few reits have chosen to issue stock in lieu of a dividend to "conserve cash" New accounting rules allowed for it. I think we all know how this ends! LOL!
Parent Post
nades Thu Apr 2 15:37:03 2009 CDT #
PonziMCC says:
"A turning point in our pursuit of global economic recovery." But he cautioned, "There are no guarantees."
he's guaranteeing a lot, actually.
1) gm warranties
2)treasury collapse
3)Megabank survival
4)dollar implosion
PonziMCC Thu Apr 2 15:35:04 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Posted this earlier today:
EHP if you're here.
This cements your theory that smaller businesses are what need to be looked at as they are on the margin. (I think it was you, if not dryfly?)
Its a like from the last thread. Worth reading for those that havent. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/02/54377/the-invoicing-crunch/
The little guys are getting worked. Tho I think that the author (perhaps intentionally) doesnt acknowledge the link between banks having money and credit terms from suppliers. I'd arugue that they are related. FWIW....
nades Thu Apr 2 15:35:45 2009 CDT #
MS says:
Key take away from the CNBC "bottom is in story":
""If they could add one thing more to this cake they're baking, it would be the uptick rule," he says. "If they come off that uptick rule it's off to the races."
i see I'm not the only one who thinks that's next.
Ciao
MS
MS Thu Apr 2 15:35:57 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"Peace in our time" Neville Chamberlain, UK Prime Minister, 1938 after the signing of the Munich Agreement that was going to put an end of all of the trouble.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:36:00 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
Who is going to buy the Kimco stock? TARP?
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:36:13 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Here are the bear market rallies that occurred during the Great Depression.
November 1929 - April 1930: +48%
June 1930 - September 1930: +12%
December 1930 - February 1931: +21%
May 1931 - June 1931: +27%
October 1932 - November 1931: +35%
July 1932 - September 1932: +72%
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/228893/2591709.aspx
popeye Thu Apr 2 15:36:54 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Found this and thought some might be interested. http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=4350
Some might already know! Cheers!
nades Thu Apr 2 15:39:43 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Everyone on the bottom of the economic ladder when this crisis hit can plan on being there for a long time, perhaps forever. The free trade mantra and continue globalization at all costs will ensure only limited opportunity to climb the ladder to wealth.
The middle class professionals who have been permanently downsized are the joker in the deck. How they organize and react will be telling on how the country progresses. The poor are used to being downtrodden and beholden to the system. The American Dreamers are different and their disillusionment will bring real change.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:41:15 2009 CDT #
rgd says:
"How they organize and react will be telling on how the country progresses"
I suspect many will leave the country....
Parent Post
rgd Thu Apr 2 22:14:04 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
"The American Dreamers are different and their disillusionment will bring real change."
Yes, like divorce, drug addiction, and suicide.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:42:51 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
"
“bearly a few reits have chosen to issue stock in lieu of a dividend to "conserve cash" New accounting rules allowed for it. I think we all know how this ends! LOL!"
The sad part is that a lot of investors just look at the Yahoo! Finance yield and don't understand what a total scam this is.
iceman Thu Apr 2 15:42:54 2009 CDT #
Bill Kelly says:
Maybe somebody could figure out how to integrate Wall Street and Vegas.
Too big too fail then?
Bill Kelly Thu Apr 2 15:43:31 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
nades, saw it and replied earlier (should be in my history if you click my username)
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 15:43:42 2009 CDT #
nades says:
EHP. Got it thanks. Interesting idea about gold. I've been wanting to be a gold but but have no huevos! I'll continue to sit out :)
Parent Post
nades Thu Apr 2 15:51:59 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
Market tanks on Friday......pre printed financial headlines for all print media. Standard issue......No one wants to be in over the weekend. =-O
Money Man Thu Apr 2 15:43:45 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
Will the Easter Bunny bring eggs to the children of Wall Street this year or will the bandos mug the Easter Bunny before he gets there?
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:46:07 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Yeah maybe Obama charmed them. When they wake up tomorrow they'll realize how much was said with nothing accomplished.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:46:09 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I didn't say the real change will be good, just real. Some people get back up when they are knocked down, some stay down. The ratio is what will be important.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:47:37 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
"Some people get back up when they are knocked down, some stay down. "
And 32.2M get food stamps.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:49:49 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Marc Faber agreed with me weeks ago in his Hong Kong interview what the market would do before it's next leg down. My prediction is a selling opportunity at DOW 8275 to 8725 a couple weeks from now. Starting in May the Dow will plumb new lows to 5875 by June 15.
http://www.marcfaberreport.com/2009/03/25/marc-faber-rally-has-more-legs/
Michael Thu Apr 2 15:50:56 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Nemo, just having a little fun. It happens.
I'll go back to being Mr. Serious ...
best to all.
Calculated Risk Thu Apr 2 15:52:02 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Thread music dedicated to the G20.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPOBMzMTP4U
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:52:37 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
When I was a kid, I always thought the future for food was in cloning. Then I saw those pictures of Dolly. I hear Jas keeps one on the ceiling in his bedroom, but that is another story...
Elvis Thu Apr 2 15:52:52 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
No doubt in my mind that we have a casino eCONomy. Business acumen or technical skills are becomming meaningless against tens of trillions in gov spending/central bank guarantees. Or against hundreds of trillions of derivative bets.
Greenspan was right, derivatives do indeed spread the risk - to EVERYONE and EVERYTING!
Angry Saver Thu Apr 2 15:53:31 2009 CDT #
JP says:
MS: i see I'm not the only one who thinks that's next.
No, you aren't. :-/
JP Thu Apr 2 15:53:55 2009 CDT #
purple says:
Quite a number of the G20 leaders look sloshed.
purple Thu Apr 2 15:54:03 2009 CDT #
why so serious says:
Clearly we have bottomed in the casino. Time to go all in for the duration.
I recommend indescriminate buying of stocks, bonds, commodittees, art, real estate, glod, potash, toothpicks, poodles, oil, slapbraclets, poolcues, 9/11 gold coins, etc.
why so serious Thu Apr 2 15:55:48 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Quite a number of the G20 leaders look sloshed
GS thru them a big shindig....passed along Swiss Banks Account Nums, too.
Barley Thu Apr 2 15:56:44 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
32.5 million on food stamps. How is that number calculated?
Reminds me of a quote, paraphrased,"Control a nations currency and you control the government, control the food supply and you control the population."
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 15:57:31 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
The Fed's death spiral:
When Treasuries' decline they keep buying more to prop up the price, because they can. Trillions. More trillions...
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 15:57:47 2009 CDT #
hc says:
trick question #1: Is it really doomsday for USA, if it gets the rest of world to die with it as well? That's the unknown twist in whether we'll end up turning this monster of a recession into the best thing that every happend to the USA. Currently, everywhere else *is* getting more hammered than here, and USA is leading the news -- whether recover or not, it's leading.
hc Thu Apr 2 15:57:54 2009 CDT #
Government Motors says:
Everything is wonderful. Mark-to-market is a thing of the past! TARP money is available for car repairs! Let's help the restaurant business by providing dining-out vouchers. 3rd half recovery is on the way! Pull out all the stops! Let's hear from the cheerleaders!
Government Motors Thu Apr 2 15:59:19 2009 CDT #
fallonPDX says:
"DOW just below 8,000, up 2.8%" despite record high continuing unemployment claims!
Well today "the Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by U.S. lawmakers and financial companies, voted to relax fair-value accounting rules that Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. say don’t work when markets are inactive.
Changes to fair-value, or mark-to-market accounting, approved by FASB today allow companies to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities. Analysts say the measure may reduce banks’ writedowns and boost net income by" 20% or more! Firms could apply the changes to first-quarter results.
So see, the banks no longer have losses in value on declining assets because, through the use of significant” judgment, those assets never lost value!
Investors are pouring money back into the banks well knowing that there will no longer be any transparency about what is really on the book. There is no problem if you rename the problem as a solution!
Requiring transparency and fair market values based on actual market conditions, was huge a burden on capitalising on debt.
Now that the banks are effectively recaptialised and their assets made whole, the whole finance and lending crisis is rendered over and the recession done.
Time to knock off early today, drink and be merry, and call to apply for a home equity line as my house is worth more than the comparable sales are really indicating. I have a lot of equity available based on my own significant judgement.Hell I should just do a cash-out refinance!
Oh wait....I can't do that cause I am not a bankster and lack the ability to make a signficant judgement regarding the current value of an asset class. Damn! Fooled again by those banksters!
fallonPDX Thu Apr 2 16:00:13 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
If the USA takes down the rest of the world first, I call dibs on Tahiti.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 16:00:29 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The
New York Stock Exchange sued to prevent a casino [New York, New York's "Slot Exchange"] from using its famous façade to promote
its gambling and casino services. See New York Stock Exchange, Inc. v. New York, New
York Hotel, LLC, 69 F. Supp. 2d 479, 484 (S.D.N.Y. 1999),
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:00:32 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
An interesting story Iraq buys Russian war machines:
Airfreight Aviation Ltd is a certified service center that has an extensive experience of working with Russia’s Mi helicopters in the Middle East, an official spokesperson for the holding said.
<!-- TEXT BLOCK 2 -->
The Arab company will refine the Russian helicopters in cooperation with the Moscow-based helicopter plant, which designs Mi-17 and other Mi helicopters.
<!-- TEXT BLOCK 3 -->
The deal to deliver 22 Russian helicopters to Iraq is evaluated at $80 million
Barley Thu Apr 2 16:02:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
@hc
Everyone suffered during the GD. It wasn't just the US. Biggest problem this time around is that we have no manufacturing base, and not enough domestic energy to run it if we did.
All energy we have will have to be devoted to moving what food we have around to feed the jobless mobs.
we're f%^&*
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:02:41 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
Elvis, you've reentered the building! Welcome back!
Bob Dobbs Thu Apr 2 16:02:56 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
Do they give free drinks from scantly clad women at the stock markets, too? If so, I'm going there for my next vacation.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 16:03:34 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
This is probably not the last time that I'll say that the previous statement on FASB 157 already used the exact words "significant judgment" to describe the process of valuating assets when there were what are now called "illiquid" markets.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Thu Apr 2 16:03:58 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Hey CR, let's crash that chat site thingy again. That was fun.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:04:11 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
You could try to crash this chat thingy: http://realize.org/cr
briwerk Thu Apr 2 16:05:42 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"If the USA takes down the rest of the world first, I call dibs on Tahiti."
I think the French have reserved Tahiti for their own use.
Pavel Thu Apr 2 16:06:02 2009 CDT #
Elvis says:
I'll be back some time again. I picked up an extra shift at 7-11, so I can sell cigarettes to underaged kids for big profits. Got to go.
Elvis Thu Apr 2 16:06:07 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Test
Lawyerliz Thu Apr 2 16:07:06 2009 CDT #
scone says:
The article about food stamp participoation is extremely misleading. It makes things sound as if we have had a sudden jump in the last few months, but if you look at this chart (link below), from the USDA itself, it shows there has been a gradual increase in participation over several years. You would also want to think about how many people are 'steady users' versus turnover. And how many users are military families. And so forth.
You have to remember, the USDA and the other anti-hunger organizations have a mission to increase food stamp participation, as a way to combat child poverty in particular. So some of this increase is 'mission' related, the way disease rates increase when you step up diagnosis efforts. The progam is now called SNAP, BTW, and there is lots more on it at the USDA site.
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm
I hate it when pop journalism throws away all pretense of critical thinking and journalistic responsibility in favor of melodrama and grabbing eyeballs. You really have to keep the critical thinking faculties turned all the way up, all the time.
scone Thu Apr 2 16:07:21 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wait unitl GM misses their U.S. $ 1 Billion payment on notes due June 1.
Yours In Socialism,
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hjwfnDF0_k&feature=related">Kilgore Trout</a>
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:10:45 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
Pavel, thanks for the link.
I'm afraid that this is how change happens.
For hunger to be abolished, a whole lot of people have to go hungry. Who didn't expect to.
For health care to be made more available, a whole lot of people who expected to always have it, have to lose it.
When we realize that the "other" is us: that's when change happens. Happened in the '30s. Will happen now if things get bad enough.
http://www.talesfromthecoast.blogspot.com
Bob Dobbs Thu Apr 2 16:11:21 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Were the Chinese smart enough to buy TIPS?
I suppose we can sell them ethanol. If Americans lose an average of 50 pounds each,it just might work out.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 16:11:23 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Scone could 'mission' related' be related to Madoff and trhe charities he bked or the people he put in the bread line?
Barley Thu Apr 2 16:11:27 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"You really have to keep the critical thinking faculties turned all the way up, all the time."
Nah, that's why we have you.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:11:41 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"You have to remember, the USDA and the other anti-hunger organizations have a mission to increase food stamp participation, as a way to combat child poverty in particular."
There's something wrong with combatting child poverty? Or do you believe that there is less child poverty than some people want you to believe? If so, how do you know?
"You would also want to think about how many people are 'steady users' versus turnover. And how many users are military families. And so forth. "
Is there something wrong with using food stamps if you need them to have an adequate diet?
Pavel Thu Apr 2 16:12:16 2009 CDT #
Elvis\'s Dad says:
Thats my boy, Elvis
as daddy takes another puff
Elvis\'s Dad Thu Apr 2 16:13:30 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Word is the British Queen and Prince Charles just requested an invite to the 2010 Winter Olympics
Looks like someone is making contingency plans to escape the island
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 16:13:50 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
When more troops come home (thank god), unemployment will force changes. It's happened before.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 16:15:13 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
RIMM blows away numbers...up24% AH
Depression-istas, what say you?
crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 16:17:01 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Pavel: You're not reading the post carefully. My comments are about the inadequacy of these numbers, and the lack of careful research by the 'reporter' who wrote the piece. There is *no* expressed or implied political content here, other than what you are attempting to read into it. It's the *data* and the misleading presentation I have a problem with. Please go back and read the post from a *critical thniking* perspective, rather than a knee-jerk emotional one.
scone Thu Apr 2 16:17:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Oct 2007 shows 12.1 million HOUSEHOLDS. Jan 2009 shows 14.5 million HOUSEHOLDS. An alltime high. Real costs increased 900 million dollars. Critical thinking thinks that is a significant increase. Thanks for the spiffy chart.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:17:17 2009 CDT #
demonbankers says:
im so glad blackberry can employ millions!
demonbankers Thu Apr 2 16:18:19 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Is everyone talking their book except the skeptics? Even skeptics have a book.
Pavel Thu Apr 2 16:18:38 2009 CDT #
black dog says:
Well, this is pretty much where the rubber meets the road as far as my predictive powers. The friday going into president's day weekend (i think dow closed around 7850) I told my broker that the market was going down to 6500 then bounce back to 7500-7800 with a good chance at a peek over 8000 if we hit 7800. Then I told him I saw 5's on the dow and S&P.
However, with BO and BB giving out a steady diet of candy this rally still might have some legs but I don't have a doubt that at some point the market is going down big for the simple reason that there is too much money to be made by taking it down (and then bringing it back up). To fleece the shorts and the longs there has to be strong moves in both directions.
black dog Thu Apr 2 16:22:41 2009 CDT #
locust says:
[Is there something wrong with using food stamps if you need them to have an adequate diet?]
For members of the military, yes. Every member of the military should be paid well enough so that they can feed their families without having to rely on food stamps.
locust Thu Apr 2 16:22:57 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Watch out EHP, she's after your glod I swear it.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 16:23:49 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
More details out of KIMCO, from the use credit card A to pay the past due credit card B department:
[During February 2009, the company repaid its $130 million 6.875% Senior Notes at maturity. Proceeds from the company’s U.S. $1.5 billion revolving credit facility were used to fund the repayment.]
bearly Thu Apr 2 16:25:25 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Scone,
I dunno about that rant - the Year Over Year increase in January is 16% - this ain't no disco...
energyecon Thu Apr 2 16:27:27 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Critical thinking thinks that is a significant increase. Thanks for the spiffy chart.
.
Of course it's a significant increase. Duh. The point is, it's not a vertical, stratospheric increase, which is what the 'piece' is trying to suggest. The piece also implies that the increase is a 'bad thing' whereas, from the POV of the agencies running the program, it's a good thing, because it increases 'food security.'
But you still aren't getting the detailed information to tell you, in detail, how many of the newly unemployed are using the SNAP program. And that's the number that makes the difference-- how much of these new numbers are due to the recession, and how much of it to mission increase?
That matters because it affects food security policy at the state level, which is where this all plays out. And it matters in terms of Food Bank planning and policy, because Food Stamps and the food bank network are part of the overall strategy to prevent hunger.
scone Thu Apr 2 16:28:45 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
crispy & cole
Canadian companies don't count, please stop paying so much attention
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 16:28:47 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Anecdotal Sentiment Discussion
CRbot Thu Apr 2 16:33:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Scone never ceases to amaze and delight. Keep up the good work and over compensation for some missing piece. Hope you find it.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 16:34:38 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Pavel:
Is everyone talking their book except the skeptics? Even skeptics have a book.
You and I are the ones I know have books. I bet a few others do too. None of us peddle them here though. So, it isn't a market without decorum. Other people do talk their books, so it's not a market with perfect decorum. Somewhere in between. A hazardous land. Some people are honest about some things.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 16:35:31 2009 CDT #
JT says:
Well, we have now recovered to just about even with the max S&P decline in the 2001 Tech crash. Who thinks the economy is in "as good as" shape as it was then? (Cramer does NOT count).
JT Thu Apr 2 16:36:27 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Can someone explain to what extent exactly are they "relaxing mark to market" or has anyone been following the renewed movement for a Federal insurance regulator?
Lot of hiding behind the pant legs of the G20 today
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 16:41:38 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
ehp - lol!
crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 16:41:58 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Elvis, if you work in Fla, better add an additional 62 cents a pack for the ciggies, for an increase in taxes!!
Lawyerliz Thu Apr 2 16:43:51 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Well, we have now recovered to just about even with the max S&P decline in the 2001 Tech crash. Who thinks the economy is in "as good as" shape as it was then? (Cramer does NOT count).
Erin bought new knee pads.
Br\'er Dawg Thu Apr 2 16:44:43 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
RIMM crushed numbers and bringing up guidance. That doesnt happen in a depression or even a severe recession. We're so soft as a country its sad. We finally have a real recession and every cries "Depression!", runs for the guns, ammo and canned goods and calls for the end of society. The stock market players are the worst - both the bears and the bulls - neither has even remote touch with reality they just cling to their opinions and ideology. Makes me sick. Amazing how smart everyone is until they aren't. Just a matter of time before the ultra-bears go the way of the ultra-bulls - extinction..... And the world will be a better place without either of those species.
Guest Thu Apr 2 16:46:21 2009 CDT #
anotherajh says:
Guest, thank you for your post. I was getting tired of of all the thought and analysis, and you thoughtfully supplied a post entirely devoid of content.
Parent Post
anotherajh Thu Apr 2 16:52:37 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Guest - famous last words.
Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 16:47:57 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Guest, do you have any actual reasoning behind all your blather, or are you just spewing platitudes? There are good reasons for the severity of our current economic situation... can you name any of them?
briwerk Thu Apr 2 16:49:51 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Biwerk - sure - the economy sucks, everyone overlevered, made irrational purchase decisions and paid unsustainable prices for inflated assets on the hope that a never ending flow of liquidity would continue the insanity. Well, the flow stopped and the great unwind of the leverage trade began. For those that took stupid risks and were the heaviest users of leverage the pain has been severe. In response, the government has pumped liquidity into the system at an unprecedented level with incredible haste somehwat offsetting the deflationary pressures of the deleveraging. Which is exactly what everyone should have expected they would do and will continue to - yet the ultra-bears were too stupid to expect it or blinded by their ideologies so all they do is complain about it. In the same way the ultra-bulls thought that the liquidity flow would always continue to expand also too stupid to see the irrational behavior or blinded by their ideologies so all they do is complain that the central banks didnt act quickly enough. At the top, the ultra-bulls exhibit incredible stupidity and the ultra-bears do the exact same thing at the bottom. Neither is capable of changing their views and that is their great flaw and ultimately leads to financial losses and general unhappiness.
I went through the recessions in the 70s and 80s and so far what I am seeing is no worse than that - we actually saw strength in our businesses during the last 2 weeks of March which we havent seen in six months. Hey, its bad and it should be - but those rooting for or betting on a recession are going to be disappointed - the inventory adjustment is essentially over and consumer spending has declined but not fallen off a cliff. The recovery is going to stink because the consumer isnt going to bounce back and will seem like a general economic malaise, but only fools are trying to play this market on either the short side or the long side. Cash is the only safe place.
The government is going to give people money if they have to and you are follish if you think otherwise.
There is no longer any intellegent debate in these comments.
Just ultra-bears making themselves feel better by talking to others who share the exact same one sided opinions. Just like a yahoo finance stock message board from 2005-2007....
Seems lemmings can be both eternal pessimists and optimists. Ultimately they cliff dive.
Parent Post
Guest Thu Apr 2 17:13:39 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Scone,
I dunno about that rant - the Year Over Year increase in January is 16% - this ain't no disco...
.
That's true, but what's *inside* the numbers? For example, Michelle Obama was on TV essentially sympathizing with military families who had to use the SNAP program. I can't remember Laura Bush ever doing that. Is the military ramping up SNAP usage? Is it going to National Guard families as well as regular services? I don't know, but that's the kind of detail I want to see.
OTOH, maybe the anti-hunger agencies are getting some better donations, due to the recession, and they are able to get more eligible people signed up. If that's the case, it implies we have had an "undiagnosed" or unaddressed hunger issue that has been there fore some time. In other words, the numbers were present, but the system just didn't *see* them until the crisis hit.
I'm not implying that the increase in SNAP participation has nothing to do with the recession. I'm trying to get people to see that the problem is more complex than it first appears, and if you don't have good data, you don't have squat.
For example, if the article makes people think that the SNAP increase is *solely* because of the recession, then fix the recession, and the SNAP numbers go down. And people stop thinking about the issue. But if the increase is due to structural problems, fixing the recession may not help much, and we need to think about solving the problem differently.
scone Thu Apr 2 16:51:35 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Hey guest, you imbecile, don't forget to include the Fed, Treasury, Administration, Congress, IMF and every other organization in your cry-baby list. Will we still have cry babies when UE hits 12%. Moron.
bearly Thu Apr 2 16:52:16 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
bearly sentient, calling someone a moron, now there's a mega-hoot.
Parent Post
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 05:31:25 2009 CDT #
jo6pac says:
How can this be?
jo6pac Thu Apr 2 16:53:19 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Bear markets bottom when "good new" doesn't send them soaring. So bottom not here, not now.
Hal Thu Apr 2 16:53:28 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Scone,
Here ya go, a new post with a YoY % change plot of individual food stamp enrollment using the limited time series data from your linky...make of the data what you will! :)
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/
energyecon Thu Apr 2 16:56:24 2009 CDT #
MLM says:
Guest, the real question is, are you farting through silk?
MLM Thu Apr 2 16:57:04 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
back when the IRS Sect 382(h) story broke last November, I think someone here shared (NorkaWest?) a law blog from some law firm in NYC that covered it. It was the kind of thing where they would keep clients updated with short current memos
can anyone help me out? absolutely not a big deal,
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 16:59:00 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
RIMM is simply setting up for lowering guidance later. When the decision becomes human food + cheap mobile phone OR cat food + blackberry, well, Fancy Feast might not be sufficiently attractive to tip the scales.
bearly Thu Apr 2 16:59:34 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
bearly
It is possible to grow by gaining market share, and I assume that is what's happening. They're no longer just high-end corporate, and selling data plans to consumers is the one thing telecoms are doing to save their bacon. Don't know where it is at now, but they finally got the greenlight in China after years of being blocked while China tried to get its own copycat 'RedBerry' to take root. India had the greenlight recently after settling an argument over blackberry server encryption
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 17:04:21 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Thank you, energyecon, that's the kind of thing I wanted to see! It looks like there was a spike in 2008, but then the thing goes (sort of) back to trend-- a pretty steady increase. I could very well be wrong, but this strikes me as 'structural' more than anything else. Thanks again for "getting" what I'm trying to say.
scone Thu Apr 2 17:04:42 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Bearly, i think you forget that blackberries are... edible.
Broward Horne Thu Apr 2 17:05:17 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
RIMM has a rep for channel stuffing...let's see how much that all really goes to the bottom line.
Let them eat Blackberries! lolz
energyecon Thu Apr 2 17:05:50 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Rally seems to be getting a little long in the teeth"
"If we have a few consecutive days of red...."
"...nobody believes this rally is real"
"what was truly driving this rally..."
"Elvis is back?.......... Welcome back"
"Some people get back up when they are knocked down, some stay down"
"Clearly we have bottomed in the casino."
"Elvis, you've re-entered the building! Welcome back!"
Relax....."Here are the bear market rallies that occurred during the Great Depression: +12-72%"
And here are the things that still need to "BREAK" before we get "ALL BETTER":
Increased Record High Unemployment, worsening mortgage debt, credit card debt default, less access to Medicare, Medicaid, & private medical availability,
Multiple cities bankrupties, Municipal Bond defaults, Private & Public Pension Plan Defaults, multiple counties bankruptcies, Pension Plan Guaranteur Bankruptcy, lessening Federal, State, Local Tax Revenues, States Unemployment Insurance Funds insolvancy, Courts/Law Enforcement Administrations grind to gridlock, Major US$ Currency Devaluations, Bond Insurer Bankruptcies, Social Security underfunding, highways, bridges and roads infrastructure and maintenance, lessening Federal bond sales.......
Calm down. This is no bottom. There is still plenty that needs to go wrong before we see sunlight.
Black Star Ranch Thu Apr 2 17:05:58 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
When consumers demand a handheld phone/camera/digital player-processor that is durable and can easily be reloaded with software, RIMM profits go to zero and everyone wins.
My bet is a better phone evolves through open source hardware and software.
Except the last RIMM job equity holder.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:06:25 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Those sentences were interposed.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:06:59 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
oh, the other bit of news from the G20
going ahead with the tax haven stuff
are the British ones at stake? Are they really going to close down Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, etc?
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 17:07:50 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Scone,
YW, and I think it would be interesting to add the UE changes over time with that - I suspect it will look quite similar - which takes us back to your point re: digging into the details of the data...mebbe I can throw that in later.
energyecon Thu Apr 2 17:09:05 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
yogi,
RIM is the new Nokia
Nokia was the new Sony Walkman
steps on the path of commoditization
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Apr 2 17:10:32 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"The piece also implies that the increase is a 'bad thing' whereas, from the POV of the agencies running the program, it's a good thing, because it increases 'food security.' "
scone,
It sounds like you're saying that the 'agencies' like it that people are hungry so that they can justify their existence.
Pavel Thu Apr 2 17:12:09 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Show of hands: how many of you will always use Mozilla or other open source?
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:12:15 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Show of hands: how many of you will always use Mozilla or other open source?
If given a viable choice? Open source.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 21:48:49 2009 CDT #
Elvis\'s Dad says:
EHP - Ausrtia is not a tax haven.
Elvis\'s Dad Thu Apr 2 17:14:49 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
guest - lets wait until 20 or 30 companies do this before we get too excited.
crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 17:14:57 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Crispy - looks like our business is going to beat Q1 by a decent amount and raise guidance as well. Q2 backlog has increased 30% in past 7 days. Analysts have Q2 and Q3 being worse than Q1 - that will not be the case even if things soften from here. People here are going to hate hearing it because it conflicts with how they have been programmed - sorry. It was also the reason I got out of all my short positions 2 weeks ago. I saw things start to change. I have no idea if it has legs but it appears that the retailers are done cutting inventory and are starting to build because they overcut. If I know it then so does Fidelity and every big player in the market - including those who are short. This rally may not have another 20% to the upside but I suspect there is a reason for the madness....
Now I'll wait while all the depressionistas tell me I'm wrong or lying or not seeing the big picture or its a dead cat bounce yada yada yada.... Just like the uber-bulls who told me the 2007 slowdowns in my businesses werent happening. Like the Journey song says "Dont stop! Believing! Hold on to that feeeeeeeeellllinnggg!"
Silly people.
Parent Post
Guest Thu Apr 2 17:26:27 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
S&P ‘Dividend Aristocrats’ Dwindle as Payouts Are Cut (Update1)
By Elizabeth Stanton
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The aristocracy is under siege.
Standard & Poor’s annual list of companies that increased payouts for at least 25 years is in danger of falling below 40 for the first time since 1992 after slumping profits forced executives to conserve cash. General Electric Co., Gannett Co., Pfizer Inc., State Street Corp. and U.S. Bancorp, all in S&P’s Dividend Aristocrats Index, cut payouts this year.
[snip]
Forty-six companies in the S&P 500 have announced dividend reductions totaling $42 billion in 2009, exceeding the full-year record of $40.6 billion set in 2008, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P. He forecasts that the combined payout this year will be $21.97 a share, down 23 percent from $28.39 last year. That would be the biggest decline since 1938, when it dropped 36 percent. UBS AG today lowered its S&P 500 dividend forecast for this year by 20 percent to $21.
Earnings for S&P 500 companies fell 37 percent from January through March, according to the consensus of analysts’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Profits already decreased for eight consecutive quarters. Another would make the streak the longest since the U.S. government began tracking the data in 1947.
[snip]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a5xmjP4djXSA&refer=home
energyecon Thu Apr 2 17:16:03 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
All that free advertisement Obama gave RIMM should have helped the cause.
REBear Thu Apr 2 17:16:54 2009 CDT #
Elvis\'s Dad says:
So we have burning cars in LV and now boats everywhere (PS I'm sure Madoff is glad they siezed "Bull" 'cause of the costs his wife would have to look after):
They often sandpaper over the names and file off the registry numbers, doing their best to render the boats, and themselves, untraceable. Then they casually ditch the vessels in the middle of busy harbors, beach them at low tide on the banks of creeks or occasionally scuttle them outright.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?_r=3&hp
Elvis\'s Dad Thu Apr 2 17:18:23 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"occasionally scuttle them outright."
Is that to claim the insurance?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 21:43:57 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
My Toshiba laptop wouldn't power up last week. To retrieve your data, my cousin said, buy housing for the hard drive ($19) and hook it up to any processor, you can find free how-to online..
You can't patent or copyright a mathematical solution.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:20:17 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Yippie! Then again this happened in Chicago, so it will all blow over.
Blagojevich, 52, , was charged 16 felony counts, including racketeering conspiracy, wire fraud, extortion conspiracy, attempted extortion and making false statements to federal agents.
Barley Thu Apr 2 17:21:25 2009 CDT #
scone says:
scone,
It sounds like you're saying that the 'agencies' like it that people are hungry so that they can justify their existence.
.
I never said or implied anything like that. I said it is the mission of the agencies to reduce hunger and food insecurity. If they do that by increasing SNAP participation, then they are more successful in their mission by definition.
I don't know why you keep 'looking for a fight' on this, but there is none. It's about data and policy implications. If you're really into helping thre poor, I would think you'd be digging around for info too.
For example, when I look at the increase, I automatically want to know wherther the divorce and 'breakup' rate is growing, too. Because that implies a need for more child care, If the rate is not going up, those resources can go elsewhere. The point is, you can't solve the problems if you don't know what they are, and if you don't have good data, you can waste a lot of money and time. Which I'm sure you'll agree is a bad thing.
scone Thu Apr 2 17:23:11 2009 CDT #
Sr. American Mugabe says:
Lets see. JPM uses government money to buy toxic assetsat 7 cents on the dollar. Then given FASB, revalues them up, and flips them out to, oh, Citi. Pays off the government, and pulls a nice 200-300% profit of their original investment. Sure, sounds great. Works for me.
Wait, it dosen't work for me because it is fraud, and eventually someone will pay, again.
This is a travesty of leadership and greed, and the Congress and the Administration should be recalled immediately for monumental stupidity, in the face of the monumental stupidity we have endured for eight years.
Obama, Bush, Republicans and Democrats are a joke. A dirty, filthy, smelly dead fish of a joke.
What time is "House" on??
Sr. American Mugabe Thu Apr 2 17:25:16 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
Guest - I agree 100% with your last comment...seeing the same trends here. However, the poster here are real and very geniune people, so I woul treat them with a little more respect...
crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 17:26:02 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Crispy - thanks for the post. I have been treated with little respect here in the past few weeks while I have tried to convey worthwhile information - that is why I'm rough in my responses. I have been on the website for over 2 years and never had anyone call me a liar or a troll until I started conveying some positive things I've been seeing. I guess they only liked me when I had negative news. People here seem more set in their ways than they used to be and more interested in being right in their opinions than gettting to the truth. I will continue to read your posts and sorry to come off like a jerk, but unfortunately most of the people who've responded to my posts deserve it.
Parent Post
Guest Thu Apr 2 17:31:40 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Geez, one company has a good quarter and some are pointing to that as a sign of the bottom. Anyone look at Micron's numbers, also announced today? The chip market, which is basically a commodity, is in a huge slide.
There are gonna be a ton of varying indicators throughout this cycle, but we have seen this all before. Nothing changes the fundamental issues that the economy is facing: it is broken, and in a downward spiral.
yeah, I know, unemployment is a lagging indicator, etc. But personal consumption didn't always make up 70% of GDP, the government didn't always have 11trillion in debt, plus the liabilities of Fannie/Freddie off balance sheet, plus immeasurable contingent liabilties to bail out more companies...
And did RIMM announce they were going to be hiring on top of their good numbers? No, in fact, they announced there were going to "seek to reduce costs".
Enjoy the afterparty while it lasts.
ghostfacedinvestah Thu Apr 2 17:27:30 2009 CDT #
Silver Linings says:
We're off the lows!
Silver Linings Thu Apr 2 17:29:01 2009 CDT #
sporkfed says:
Not sure of where RIMM's profits are coming from, but I think people
will give up there home phone before cell if they are forced. The real question
is would you give up the home phone and internet for a cell phone with internet ?
sporkfed Thu Apr 2 17:30:43 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
RIMM is short-covering or Obama-asociated hype. There's nothing there except an irrational pop in the stock (how many times have we seen that in the past ten years?)
Broward Horne Thu Apr 2 17:30:44 2009 CDT #
Sr. American Mugabe says:
Guest,
Myopic much?????
Sr. American Mugabe Thu Apr 2 17:32:17 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Broward and Yagij write some elegant code, anyone can stamp out some housing. Chips are cheap. Robots assemble. Rim profits approach zero.
We're closer than you think.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:32:42 2009 CDT #
scone says:
YW, and I think it would be interesting to add the UE changes over time with that - I suspect it will look quite similar - which takes us back to your point re: digging into the details of the data...mebbe I can throw that in later.
-energyecon
Thanks! If SNAP tracks pretty closely with UE, then we have a correlation, maybe, but do we have a cause? If they don't track, then maybe we have a bigger, nastier monster to deal with. Those are my assumptions, anyway. MEW also comes to mind. Have people been using the HELOC to buy food, once they max out the credit cards?
scone Thu Apr 2 17:34:01 2009 CDT #
sporkfed says:
Anyone who quotes Journey has no credibility.
sporkfed Thu Apr 2 17:34:03 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
"
<tbody>
And the world will be a better place without either of those species."
</tbody>
For the good of the country I hope you are right but I have come to a place where I have no faith. IMO we have hit the iceberg and the the rally is just giving a chance to the first class to disembark while the captain and crew manage the peons. I am going to try and do what I can to help as many people as I can but I believe the long night has begun.
Guest Thu Apr 2 17:35:04 2009 CDT #
Komrade 250K says:
Is rock and rolling like Red Army on the march.
Komrade 250K Thu Apr 2 17:35:56 2009 CDT #
MLM says:
<i> looks like our business is going to beat Q1 by a decent amount and raise guidance as well.</i>
Can you give any general info on what business your co. is in?
MLM Thu Apr 2 17:36:35 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
What I'm trying to say is "The wheel in the sky keeps on turning..."
:-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P :-P
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:38:16 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"I have been treated with little respect here in the past few weeks"
----
Duh. Maybe if you weren't using a generic city-dump handle that's also used by Jabba The Hut, Freddie Kruger and Bozo the clown.
Broward Horne Thu Apr 2 17:38:45 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
"Obama Gets a Thumbs-Up for His BlackBerry"
“They’re going to pry it out of my hands,” Mr. Obama said
"The president patted himself on the back for the "toughest diplomacy of my life" — being able to keep his Blackberry."
""Everyone look at the person sitting on your left," Obama said. "Now look at the person sitting on your right. None of you have my e-mail[blackberry] address"
>>
I will buy this is turning point if IPhone can also pull out a stellar performance.
REBear Thu Apr 2 17:38:58 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
"Boeing Co. reported sharply lower monthly orders for jetliners on Thursday, as the ailing economy forced airlines to reduce flights and cancel orders.
The Chicago-based aerospace giant received orders for just six passenger and freight jets in March, down from 99 during the same month last year, according to figures posted on Boeing's Web site and a company spokesman...Richard Aboulafia, an aircraft manufacturing analyst at Teal Group in Fairfax, Va., noted Boeing has a big backlog of work but said airlines could back out of those orders.
"I suspect we'll get through 2009 and in 2010 production rates will come down," Aboulafia said."
Just in time for the next leg down for the Puget Sound area. Of course, as a prime defense contractor, Boeing is likely TBTF in the long run.
Kung Fu Panda Thu Apr 2 17:40:16 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Guest - I suspect for the most part, folks here follow the money (period)
Im glad your business is doing well. I see some signs of things not getting worse; so, this may be taken as a positive. However one company is not an industry and one industry is not an economy. There serious structural risks at play now.
I would like to ask you one question: Is your comapny now requiring prepayment for services/product? Just because the pipeline is full does not ensure full and timely payment - this is not a rub what so ever...a genuine queston.
Thanks for your commments
Barley Thu Apr 2 17:41:14 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
I wonder how many blackberries got crushed after AIG bonus fiasco.
REBear Thu Apr 2 17:42:16 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
the problem with developing an open source cell phone is getting access to the spectrum. supposedly the new 3G spectrum is going to be some form of open access, but who knows.
Basel Too Thu Apr 2 17:42:35 2009 CDT #
Government Motors says:
Let's get every one into a new car. We can make cars an appreciating asset. Buy now or be forever priced out.
Government Motors Thu Apr 2 17:44:21 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: More Stories of Falling Apartment Rents
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CRbot Thu Apr 2 17:45:31 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
As I've often said, anyone who makes a long-term large contract of any kind without AT LEAST indexing for CPI is a bigger fool.
Better would be my superbasket of tangibles.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 17:45:53 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"I have been treated with little respect here"
-----
Every time I read this I can't help but imagine Kirk Douglas in a roman toga shouting, "I AM ANONYMOUS!"
Broward Horne Thu Apr 2 17:48:01 2009 CDT #
Mike in Long Island says:
Hmmn. You are into Gladiator movies...
It was the leather pants that tipped me off. This confirms it.
Parent Post
Mike in Long Island Thu Apr 2 18:22:24 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Guest,
Your clearly one of those know it all types. So tell me this - were the debt to GDP levels in 1970 & 1980 recessions anywhere near the debt levels of today? Were residential and commercial real estate as over built or as over-leveraged like today? Were U.S. labor markets facing extreme wage arbitrage due to billions of Asians that work for < $5/day? Was the fed printing money to monetize debt then? Did the government need to guarantee $14 trillion in debt then to stave off an economic collapse? Did the earth have more un-used oil then or now? Did you know that total employment has not increased in 9 years. Why did it take $6 in debt to create $1 dollar of GDP in 2008? Presently we are adding trillions in debt and GDP is shrinking. We now have a record 10.6% of the population receiving food stamps. The world has just seen $50 trillion in wealth disappear. Income distribution in the U.S. has NEVER been mmore skewed to the top 1%. The bottom three quintiles would be broke within 3 months of a job loss.
Most here welcome differing opinions. I do. I'd very much like to be bull. But it sure seems like you're the one that can't accept differing views. I'm glad your business is picking up. But so is umemployment.
Angry Saver Thu Apr 2 17:53:46 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Guest also should explain this chart, and how things are different now such that we will not repeat 1930's deflation: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/debt-trend-breakdown_2.jpg
He also should explain how the US will avoid a Japanese lost decade or two type outcome while basically doing the same types of things, just bigger and faster. Also, please explain how the solution to too much debt is more debt.
briwerk Thu Apr 2 17:57:07 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
BH - that made me spray beer from my two front teeth!
Barley Thu Apr 2 18:21:14 2009 CDT #
Dave in SV says:
I have heard from a few companies that things improved in the past few weeks. My guess is that some companies will miss their guidance and some companies will beat their guidance, which is probably better than I thought a month ago and the word "stable" or "flat" will be the operative word for Q2 guidance. Is all of this priced into the market--beats me.
Dave in SV Thu Apr 2 18:22:03 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
I never said or implied anything like that. I said it is the mission of the agencies "to reduce hunger and food insecurity. If they do that by increasing SNAP participation, then they are more successful in their mission by definition. "
If you have nothing against helping people who need food then we have no argument, and I'm not looking for a fight. I'm not a demographer, a sociologist or a statistician, and I have no idea which statistical technique is most efficient in achieving that. But then, I'm about as far from recommending statistical techniques as I am from flying on the next space shuttle.
Pavel Thu Apr 2 18:33:22 2009 CDT #
Boogernose says:
It is interesting to note that in this chart, during The Great Depression, there was a really nice 20% spike during the first phase of that event and then of course, the real pain was the downtrend for the next 3 years. I wonder how Obama will create $15 Trillion this year?
Boogernose Thu Apr 2 20:54:28 2009 CDT #
Elaine Chao says:
Well, if I was still working at the BLS, I guarantee you'd see a positive jobs report tomorrow. Somewhere around 300k jobs created, 200k from construction and 100k from services. But no, those communists in power will show a job loss of 700k. Hey, I worked hard to fudge those numbers for 8 years. You have no idea how difficult it was to show job growth when it was contracting, quarter after quarter.
Elaine Chao Thu Apr 2 22:03:31 2009 CDT #
Nowhereman says:
I'm retired on a fixed icome. I come to CR for some insight and I enjoy the wit and comradarie. I tune out people talking book. I tune out rudness and crass comments, luckily there is not that much here. I am worried about my future and the future of my granchildren. So," guest", if you are all about yourself, I tune you out too.
Nowhereman Thu Apr 2 23:32:27 2009 CDT #
END