Comments for "House Prices: Round Trip to 1990"
Anonymous says:
How many waves in the set?
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 14:03:48 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/739191936562629204
CRbot Mon Mar 30 14:03:50 2009 CDT #
yagij says:
Final CRC Test: It works?
yagij Mon Mar 30 14:04:34 2009 CDT #
MS says:
I'll take door #4 Bob....
BTW I sure wish I bought more FAZ on Friday......these damnable trader's can't even wait until tomorrow to sell off. Have a little problem with yield this qtr.?
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 30 14:05:33 2009 CDT #
monta\'s ankle says:
underwater in oceanside?
monta\'s ankle Mon Mar 30 14:06:16 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
must be sea level increase caused by global warming ... :-P
Parent Post
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 17:48:58 2009 CDT #
FoamFinger1 says:
COWABUNGA !!!!!!
FoamFinger1 Mon Mar 30 14:06:35 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
As opposed to the money-printing English and Swiss
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Mon Mar 30 14:07:03 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"In print we trust" should be on the dollar.
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 14:08:24 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Not surprised. Bought a townhouse in gated community in Tucson in 1900 for $200,000. Selling it now for $215,00...best I could get.
Hal Mon Mar 30 14:09:51 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Musta been a Y2K bug ;)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 30 14:57:46 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
@Ms
yay I wish I had bought more SKF. All wells straight short XLF seems better hold anyways.
Housing prices will return to 97' levels adjust for inflation. "Round Round I get around". You ever hear that song BHO?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN7Xs9WVNBU
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:10:31 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
i hear haircutting is a good business in oceanside
Comrade Elmer Fudd Mon Mar 30 14:10:58 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Not surprised. Bought a townhouse in gated community in Tucson in 1900 for $200,000.
------------------
Must be some house, you must have had at least a wagon to lug that coin.
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 14:12:48 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
I'll be good car who wants to be bad car????
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:15:38 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Not surprised. Bought a townhouse in gated community in Tucson in 1900..."
Had to kick the jackrabbits away from the front door, did you?
Pavel Mon Mar 30 14:16:35 2009 CDT #
JP says:
Housing prices will return to 97' levels adjust for inflation.
Employment and savings were better in '97 than now.
Food for thought.
JP Mon Mar 30 14:16:48 2009 CDT #
eh says:
As a place to live large parts of Oceanside are...sub-optimal, so this is no surprise.
eh Mon Mar 30 14:17:44 2009 CDT #
scone says:
"...south of Mission Avenue and between El Camino Real and I-5."
Quick, turn on the pool fountains!
scone Mon Mar 30 14:19:21 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
"Employment and savings wre better in '97 than now"
And there was less of an oversupply of housing.
NateTG Mon Mar 30 14:19:51 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Hal, mind revisiting that last comment, I'm pretty sure it's not what you meant.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Mon Mar 30 14:21:50 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Things were better in 97 and that's why adjusting for inflation real home prices will keep going down maybe 1-2% after they bottomed
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:22:55 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/30/pension_insurer_shifted_to_stocks/
Timing is everything
Guest Mon Mar 30 14:24:25 2009 CDT #
Mike_in_FL says:
I have found at least one example of a local condo (South FL) that is listing for only a couple thousand dollars more than it originally sold for NEW in the mid-1980s. Don't know what condition it's in, of course, but these kinds of situations are definitely occurring in some hard-hit markets.
Mike_in_FL Mon Mar 30 14:24:27 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
scone quips: "...south of Mission Avenue and between El Camino Real and I-5."
Quick, turn on the pool fountains!
Damn! Another good keyboard ruined.
Br\'er Dawg Mon Mar 30 14:24:33 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
WAGONER LEAVES GM WITH 20 MILLION RETIREMENT PLAN
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7208201
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:25:05 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090327.gif
National-wide price reset back to the 1980s looks likely. How many underwater mortgages would that be?
Broward Horne Mon Mar 30 14:25:27 2009 CDT #
jasuus says:
I bought this exact home in 1996 and then sold it 2005. Locally, there was no bubble.
jasuus Mon Mar 30 14:25:41 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Agent of change ? Better read this to get a sense of what kind of advice O'drama's getting. Lots there!
[Though just 49, Emanuel is a veteran Democratic strategist and fundraiser who served three terms in the U.S. House after helping elect Mayor Richard Daley and former President Bill Clinton. The Freddie Mac money was a small piece of the $16 million he made in a three-year interlude as an investment banker a decade ago]
Wonder where FairEconomist is..
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/obama/chi-rahm-emanuel-profit-26-mar26,0,5682373.story
bearly Mon Mar 30 14:26:07 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wonder where FairEconomist is.
Finding an establishment to apologize for. :-$
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 14:29:34 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp or Union welfare put money into stocks in October. Beatiful. bailout GM the the PBGC.
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:30:15 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
And yet most folks in prime Bay Area neighborhoods think that they can list their houses for 10% below peak pricing...
"Otherwise, by gawd, I'll keep it until prices recover! I'm not going to give it away!"
ShortCourage Mon Mar 30 14:30:34 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Guess what....if you look at what's selling. The prices are around 2006 levels. Yep, check it out on zwillow and you will see what I mean. The median price is being depressed by foreclosure and bottom feeders.
When gas hits $5/gal and a new hybrid costs 35k you will see the bottom smack you in the face in the inner city areas where schools are ok and services still exist.
Not in Tracy and OC.
Parent Post
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 16:17:08 2009 CDT #
shill says:
Sweet!, my house is now worth what is was back in 1990....
Ya this is all going to end real well...Nice day to clean my Guns.
......again.
shill Mon Mar 30 14:31:31 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
"The truth is, this could be huge," said Zvi Bodie, a Boston University finance professor who in 2002 advised the PBGC to rely almost entirely on bonds. "This has the potential to be another several hundred billion dollars. If the auto companies go under, they have huge unfunded liabilities" in pension plans that would be passed on to the agency.
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:31:33 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Good company, band company for the automakers:
By WSJ Staff
The Obama administration’s leading plan to fix General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC would use bankruptcy filings to purge the ailing companies of their biggest problems, including bondholder debt and retiree health-care costs, according to people familiar with the matter.
The move would in essence split both companies into their “good” and “bad” components. The government would like to see the “good” GM, which would comprise brands such as Chevy and Cadillac, to be a standalone company, according to an administration official. The “good” Chrysler would be sold to Fiat SpA, assuming that deal is completed, this person said.
Max Mon Mar 30 14:31:34 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Answer to nova's question from previous thread.
Gus.
Michael Mon Mar 30 14:32:14 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
.Nice day to clean my Guns LOL I need to get down to the Local walmart and stock up. Don't forget to use lead free ammunition.
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:32:26 2009 CDT #
Believer Jeff says:
You know the bad thing about parabolas? The other side.
Believer Jeff Mon Mar 30 14:32:28 2009 CDT #
Max says:
The new "bad" GM CEO
Max Mon Mar 30 14:32:53 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
<i>"Otherwise, by gawd, I'll keep it until prices recover! I'm not going to give it away!"</i>
You dont lose anything until you sell, right ;) I am still a millionairre dammit!
Guest Mon Mar 30 14:34:51 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
$89,800 is the equivalent of $54,513 in 1990.
It has fallen 39% from the 1990 purchase price adjsuted for inflation.
COnversely, the 1990 $90,000 price tag is the equivalent of $146,116 in '09 dollars.
It has fallen 38.54% from the '09 equivalent of the '90 purchase price.
And then there is the normal appreciaiton in value according to Schiller - something like 2.5% + the rate of inflation......didn't even try adding in that amount for the 'should have been' 09 price.....
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 14:35:49 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Home prices will underperform inflation in the US FOR EVER. Demographics etc are bad
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:37:15 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Was it bushite scum? or clintonite scum? that made them do it.
debtinator Mon Mar 30 14:38:37 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
If we rally here it will be very bearish (unless we go positive) if we close at the lows sell and reload tomorrow in my opinion
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:38:48 2009 CDT #
planchette says:
Nova: Michael guessed Gus. Is that the answer to your Mensa question?
planchette Mon Mar 30 14:39:17 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
So....when will gas, food, college tuition, rent, insurance, and everything BUT houses go back to 1990's prices?
Darth Paulson Mon Mar 30 14:41:05 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Gas- probably never
Food- when the govt. stops messin' with the free markets
College tuition- when the govt. stops messin' with the free markets
Rent- very soon, if not already
Insurance- will there be insurance companies in the future? See A.I.G.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 30 15:05:15 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Darth Rent is coming down though you have to adjust for infaltion
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 14:42:31 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Demographics are bad?
... more like kids will be able to afford homes when they hit the job market.
That's a good thing.
debtinator Mon Mar 30 14:44:31 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"... more like kids will be able to afford homes when they hit the job market."
I don't know about owning homes, but rent should become much more affordable with the surplus of housing.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 14:54:39 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
So....when will gas, food, college tuition, rent, insurance, and everything BUT houses go back to 1990's prices?
Tuition for California residents to the UC and CS and CC systems has remained the same since 1990.
Br\'er Dawg Mon Mar 30 14:44:36 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
It's coming, I guarantee it.
Parent Post
Michael Mon Mar 30 15:40:00 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Uh oh, looks like the market is about to open.
Br\'er Dawg Mon Mar 30 14:45:59 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
"safehaven type post" http://www.safehaven.com/article-12962.htm
Guest Mon Mar 30 14:46:42 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
you have to ride the waves! btw, bear market rally in a bull market. we had to let the bears have a little fun!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 30 14:49:11 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
The US needs to get rid of the "capitalism is always good" mentality that is so ingrained. A number of raging, wild anti-capitalist riots in major cities that would scare hell out of the plutocracy would be a very good thing for the country. Just sayin'.
Hal Mon Mar 30 14:49:47 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Hal,
What would you suggest as an alternative to Capitalism?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 30 15:01:34 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
<tbody>
“Hal, mind revisiting that last comment, I'm pretty sure it's not what you meant.
</tbody>
Yes indeedy. I meant 1990, natch.
Hal Mon Mar 30 14:52:04 2009 CDT #
shill says:
Get your $40 home Here!
http://redgreenandblue.org/2009/03/30/greening-foreclosures-buy-a-home-in-detroit-for-40-and-turn-it-into-a-green-urban-space/
shill Mon Mar 30 14:52:46 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
At least the property was worth foreclosing on.
BTW, the current head of FHFA was once the head of the PBGC. Guess we can't find any decent talent to run these shows.
ghostfacedinvestah Mon Mar 30 14:53:20 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
the plutocracy thrives regardless
debtinator Mon Mar 30 14:53:58 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
probably sensible for the shorts to cover at the end today
Comrade Elmer Fudd Mon Mar 30 14:58:33 2009 CDT #
bluefisher says:
Sounds about right, in 2006 the tax appraisal on the home I am in was about 365, just received the 2009 appraisal, $140,100. Only thing selling in this area are foreclosure sales, and some going as low as 120K.
bluefisher Mon Mar 30 15:03:38 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
We don't have capitalism anyways.. at least not anymore than germany and italy in the 1930s were "capitalist"
citiprank Mon Mar 30 15:04:07 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
financial sense type article
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2009/0330.html
Guest Mon Mar 30 15:04:12 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Market Cliff Diving and More
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/market-cliff-diving-and-more.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Mon Mar 30 15:05:41 2009 CDT #
donna says:
Condos are rather notorious in SoCal for not holding their value. Have had several friends get burned on them over the years.
Mostly a bubble is a bubble -- you sell at the right time or get screwed if you're buying any asset as an investment. Houses are assets, but to live in, not as investments. I feel for those who got burned, but, having lived in the same place myself for 25 years, not so much, really. My home has always been my home, even when people were knocking on the door every week trying to buy it out from under me.
donna Mon Mar 30 15:22:13 2009 CDT #
anon says:
JHK is off da hook his week.
The lowering of living standards by 20 to 50 percent essentially eliminates all but the must critical commerce, meaning that most of the stores in the malls and strip malls lose their customers and shed employees, while the mall and strip mall owners lose their rents, and the bankers lose performing commercial real estate loans. As all this occurs, tax revenues go way down, schools can’t pay their employees or buy diesel fuel for their yellow bus fleets. More people lose the ability to carry health insurance. Hospital emergency rooms are overwhelmed. Health care descends to Third World levels. Meanwhile, pensions are destroyed, the elderly live on dog food and ketchup.
http://www.jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/
anon Mon Mar 30 15:33:17 2009 CDT #
Mark says:
But, but, but, Real estate always goes up! At least, that is what REALTORS and many Boomers love to say. Around here, on the far northern coast of California (Eureka/Humboldt), prices are barely down from peak in 2005, with the median still at $300K, contrasted against a household median income of $40K. Methinks this still has a long, long, way to go, especially here. Still, I've noticed a lot of people around here buying because they think it is the deal of a generation. Fools that we will eventually have to bail out (again).
Mark Mon Mar 30 15:43:02 2009 CDT #
AnnS says:
NO - the "but real estate always goes up" is the chant of realtors and the UNDER-40 CROWD.
Anyone over 40, and most definitely over 50 knows that is a flat out lie as they lived through the real estate price fall of the late-80s - early 90s (and it happened in more than just CA - even places like Chicago.)
Anyone over 50 had grandparents who lived through the Great Depression as young adults and heard the stories.
The data coming from the MBA (Mortgage Bankers lot) and other sources show that the majority of the foreclosures are in the under-40 bunch who just 'had to have' and 'were entitled to' that fancy house to go with their SUV, shopping splurges at the mall and the fancy vacations.
Those over 40 and most definitely over-50 (and remeber the BB gen is only between 47/48 and 63) were too tapped out after having gone through 4 bad recessions and having lost the pension plans they had be raised to believe would be there and having been forced into 401ks that tanked again and again and again.....
Parent Post
AnnS Mon Mar 30 16:34:02 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Hal,
What would you suggest as an alternative to Capitalism?
I'd advocate a healthy admixture of socialism in the form of heavy taxes on the rich and redistribution of income to the poor; a national health service; strong unions; more generous unemployment benefits, etc., etc. Not difficult. Europe has had such stuff for years. Sweden and Norway could be used as models. Government ownership of some big banks, etc. Americans have been brainwashed into thinking "socialism" has to be a failure. Of course this has delivered us into the clutches of the plutocracy who have now crashed and trashed the economy completely.
Hal Mon Mar 30 16:06:18 2009 CDT #
James says:
The data needs to be adjusted for inflation (someone posted some partial adjustments). Here:
September 1990: $99,500 2009: $161,539
August 1995: $33,000 2009: $45,947
August 2000: $114,200 2009: $140,722
August 2005: $309,500 2009: $351,018
February 2009: $89,800
James Mon Mar 30 16:08:55 2009 CDT #
Diego Mamani says:
I suspect the 1990 and 2005 sales constituted mortgage fraud: there's plenty of it in bubble times (nominal and inflation-adjusted prices below):
"September 1990: $99,500 2009: $161,539
August 1995: $33,000 2009: $45,947
August 2000: $114,200 2009: $140,722
August 2005: $309,500 2009: $351,018
February 2009: $89,800"
Parent Post
Diego Mamani Mon Mar 30 19:18:54 2009 CDT #
pricedOut says:
When it's that cheap, you have to look at the condition. It may actually take $50K to $100K to restore the condition of the condo to brand new condition, given that it's a foreclosure.
pricedOut Mon Mar 30 16:10:31 2009 CDT #
kybear says:
isn't this kind of a pointless article. So many if cases for homes. Someone could've passed it to a family member or someone was in a bad forelosure situation.
Aggregated data analysis would be better than these single cases.
kybear Mon Mar 30 16:12:21 2009 CDT #
fresno dan says:
adjusting for inflation....deflation!!!
fresno dan Mon Mar 30 16:45:30 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
This is a test of the CRbot synchronization system.
briwerk Mon Mar 30 21:27:12 2009 CDT #
END