Comments for Fed to Start Buying Longer Term Treasury Securities on Wednesday
rich says:
Nothing like telling the world what you're buying and when you're buying it. Why not tell them the price, too?
The Fed is basically bailing out every holder of 7-10 year Treasuries in the world, starting tomorrow. Come one, come all.
Back up the truck on TBT. They aren't buying anything longer than 10 year. TBT sunk on the announcement, but it will rally right back. Just watch.
rich Tue Mar 24 14:12:53 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/7856634807697492212
CRbot Tue Mar 24 14:14:58 2009 CDT #
Maximus says:
Geithner assures us we are fine....Sounds a lot like "our fundamentals are sound from Bush era"....
this is change we can believe in????
Maximus
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
Maximus Tue Mar 24 14:19:06 2009 CDT #
Wampeter of My Karass says:
"this is change we can believe in???? "
They get the dollars... you get the change.
Parent Post
Wampeter of My Karass Tue Mar 24 15:11:47 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
"The objective of the Fed’s explicit purchase of long-dated Treasuries is
to bring down borrowing costs which in turn should be reflected in lower yields of other private sector securities in the weeks ahead."
popeye Tue Mar 24 14:20:02 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
sorry forgot the link
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0903/document/dd031909.pdf
popeye Tue Mar 24 14:21:03 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Rich - you better read the press release before you lose even more money on your short UST bet.
Guest Tue Mar 24 14:21:12 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
You mean there are dopes here that were short USTs? Amazing ignorance of how things work.
There are no bigger dopes in the investment world than the "Printing Money" inflation dopes of America. They are close to morons.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:25:41 2009 CDT #
rich says:
I read the press release. I stick by what I said.
They aren't buying any meaningful amount of Treasuries beyond 10 years. It's a big bluff. They can't afford it.
TBT is gonna do just fine. So is silver and gold, when whatever govt. that's now dumping it runs out.
There's an increasingly frantic, panicky aspect to the Treasury and Fed's actions. Don't you think?
Parent Post
rich Tue Mar 24 14:36:01 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
I guess you don't have a clue as to what always causes Deflationary Depression.
There is no "Printing Money" going on, all you dopes who believe the propaganda.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:39:22 2009 CDT #
Wampeter of My Karass says:
"I guess you don't have a clue as to what always causes Deflationary Depression.
There is no "Printing Money" going on, all you dopes who believe the propaganda."
In order for deflation to obtain, the currency has to also be a store of value.
The japanese had the benefit of the yen carry trade to turn their inflation into apparent deflation. But they looted the value of the yen in the process. That's where the inflation went.
The Federal Reserve has no such recourse available to it.
Parent Post
Wampeter of My Karass Tue Mar 24 15:23:27 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Bagholder of last resort.
Greatest fool.
reptillian Tue Mar 24 14:22:02 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Some of us dopes are just lucky to profit from this.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:22:52 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
when does the FED start to Provide tax revenue for DC to budget?? is this even real?? isnt it time for them to move on and find a new Country to ruin???
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:23:28 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
That isn't the sound of treasuries being bought you hear... it is the sound of helicopters!
dryfly Tue Mar 24 14:24:44 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Some of us dopes are just lucky to profit from this."
Must be long treasuries.
reptillian Tue Mar 24 14:25:09 2009 CDT #
GS Trading Desk says:
Take this market down!
GS Trading Desk Tue Mar 24 14:26:05 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Some of us dopes are just lucky to profit from this.
You only profit from it if you SELL into it. Otherwise it is just a nominal bond. You gonna sell Jas?
dryfly Tue Mar 24 14:26:58 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
As a professional speculator I do take profits from time-to-time including "selling" with an intermediate-term hedge. As they say, there are many ways to skin a cat.
Since 1998, I have been net short the Scam Market and net long the USTs at all times. I do change the percentages to profit from the volatility. Gold is the only thing that I hold with rare hedging. My short-term T-Bills and cash are at all-time high. I am not overly greedy when things have gone my way for so long and so much.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:35:40 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
"we had to shoot the market in order to save it"
and for the last tread:
"We are Alphas, we dont do betas"
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:27:30 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Hey, js-kit swallowed my comment!
Does this happen often to the rest of you? I may have to compose comments in MS Word and then paste them here, just in case they disappear into the digital ether....
ShortCourage Tue Mar 24 14:28:14 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"You mean there are dopes here that were short USTs? Amazing ignorance of how things work."
Yeah, the time to short is when the Fed starts raising rates.
The time to buy is when the Fed starts decreasing rates.
Sure money maker ... patience is all that is required.
Never try to guess when the direction is going to change .. wait for the direction to change .. better to lose a little profit than to have a loss.
reptillian Tue Mar 24 14:28:58 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
it happens to me about 40% of all time... but my stuff is to short to bother with Ms Word
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:29:45 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Does this happen often to the rest of you?
Yes.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 14:29:46 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
This seems like small potatoes compared to the Fed's commitment to purchase up to $1.25 trillion in long term mortgages.
Let's hope the velocity of money stays low. Just in case it doesn't, I'm starting a hoarding program. Rest assured, I'll never tender my stash for fed trash.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 14:30:12 2009 CDT #
kharris says:
Mmmmmm.... tasty. Much better than that junk food that has been on the menu lately. This stuff is chewier than the bills that I grew up on, but the flavor is similar. It's like comfort food. MBS tastes nasty.
kharris Tue Mar 24 14:31:40 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
Didn't they announce that they were going to do this last week as part of their quantitive easing announcement? Somehow I get the impression that their announcement didn't have quite the desired effect.
NateTG Tue Mar 24 14:33:04 2009 CDT #
km4 says:
Fed buying massive amounts of Treasury Securities is Why the economic crisis, and its solution, is bigger than you think and agree with James K. Galbraith that there will be No Return to Normal.
98% of Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
km4 Tue Mar 24 14:33:22 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
This seems like small potatoes compared to the Fed's commitment to purchase up to $1.25 trillion in long term mortgages.
Yes, but the Fed has been vague on what it's buying the MBS with. They started in January but it has had no effect on the money supply yet, so either they're purchasing with Treasuries, they're sterilizing, or the amounts are small.
Fair Economist Tue Mar 24 14:34:00 2009 CDT #
MS says:
they are desperate...
The timing of all of this just happens to be the end of the quarter...speaking in terms of yesterday's coordinated pump and today's "we're bailing out all note holder's" meme..
BTW the Sebring race was fantastic.......sportscar racing is going to look ALOT different next year at this time. Smallest field in my memory (28 cars as opposed to about 50 avg.)...going back to mid 70's. Only the big teams (audi, acura, peugeot) had any money to spend on hospitality. Spent almost the entire time in the air conditioned 'box above the pits. Good food...good people....the danish contingent went home happy as usual....
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 24 14:35:24 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
98% of Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
not requiered tbh, do you know a Nightmare is a dream too????
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:35:31 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Jas,
There are other reasons to fear CPI inflation besides printing. Two billion Asians clawing their way up the economic ladder against a back drop of resource depletion is one reason.
My TIPs have been doing quite well of late. The thing about insurance is that you CAN'T buy it when you need it. You can only buy it when you don't need it. As with all things, it is best to buy insurance when it is on sale.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 14:38:51 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Sorry AngrySaver,
You are clueless about the global depression and how them Asians would fair.
Happy Saver,
Jas :)
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:43:47 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
rich, you are hopelessly devoted to TBT
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 14:39:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What did Honing(spelling) say to bring down the market?
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 14:39:57 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
There's an increasingly frantic, panicky aspect to the Treasury and Fed's actions. Don't you think?
Ship is sinking.. AGAIN!! time for Titanic 2:Revenge of Rock Bottom
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:40:06 2009 CDT #
MS says:
"There is no "Printing Money" going on, all you dopes who believe the propaganda. "
Then how does one explain the repo. process??
If that's not printing money via proxy then please tell us all what you would consider enough of a sign.
Really Jas...take your head out of your......
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 24 14:41:36 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Repo process is swap of one debt instrument for another. Next question.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:51:47 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Repo process is swap of one debt instrument for another. Next question.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:55:19 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
FYI, I have been long USTs for 18 years! Long gold for 12 years and short the Scam Market for 11 years. I understand the Crooks and the dopes, hopefully.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:41:46 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
rich,
Good luck with that TBT, you are braver than I am.
The Ultra-Short ETFs are deadly wealth-killers when volatility is high. Do you expect the US Treasuries to head straight down from here? If not, you might reconsider your position, unless you are going to move in and out on the big moves.
ShortCourage Tue Mar 24 14:42:12 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
btw on lost comments: if you close comment after writting and then open on Mainpage again it seems to be there.. just dont refresh after submit..may work, no guarantie
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:42:58 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
What did Honig(spelling) say that brought the market down today?
Michael Tue Mar 24 14:44:20 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Fed to Start Buying Longer Term Treasury Securities on Wednesday
That's a mighty ambitious timeframe for amending the laws of the land.
Why not $11T and erase the deficit?
I know you are all tired of hearing it but more debt is not the solution to too much debt.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 14:45:55 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Ben gonna buy $3 TRILLION. Where's the last bubble ?
The dollah doesn't stand a chance.
bearly Tue Mar 24 14:49:50 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
What is a banker to do when he can borrow at near-zero percent for years to come and can get a guaranteed return of 3.5% in avery liquid asset?
Smart bankers have been buying the long-term Treasuries for the past 9 months when it became clear that the FFR would be close to zero for at least 3 years, most likely 10 years.
Dopes forget the Japanese example of QE.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 14:49:51 2009 CDT #
Tata says:
Jas:
Time for medication,man.
Tata Tue Mar 24 14:49:53 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
I know you are all tired of hearing it but more debt is not the solution to too much debt.
RD of course we know.. but the "Leaders" dont know anything else but Debt. So there Solution is off course more debt....
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 14:50:09 2009 CDT #
Tata says:
what happens if treasury bonds do no go up (say chinese sell and feds buy)
Tata Tue Mar 24 14:51:16 2009 CDT #
ac says:
I think that filthy capitalist Fleck has a good perspective on this quantitative easing, equating it to Pearl Harbor:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/got-gold-youre-right-on-the-money.aspx
ac Tue Mar 24 14:53:47 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
rich writes: "There's an increasingly frantic, panicky aspect to the Treasury and Fed's actions. Don't you think?"
No, I think the only ones sounding increasingly panicky and frantic are those who are short USTs. Its been a loser bet for 20 years and absolutely awful since this debacle really unfolded 6 months ago.
Guest Tue Mar 24 14:53:51 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
so either they're purchasing with Treasuries, they're sterilizing, or the amounts are small.
Fair Economist,
The fed is using "new reserves" for the purchase of mortgages. Last time I checked the fed's balance sheet, only ~ $7 billion had been purchased. No doubt that will increase.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 14:54:32 2009 CDT #
cd says:
KM4
98% of Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
does this count, because I find myself dreaming a lot...
http://www.zanimacije.com/wall2/Adriana%20Lima%20-%20Wallpaper%20(3).jpg
cd Tue Mar 24 14:55:16 2009 CDT #
km4 says:
cd you better have really big bucks if you want her but you can still dream >:o
Parent Post
km4 Tue Mar 24 15:10:44 2009 CDT #
GS Trading Desk says:
Take 'em out!
GS Trading Desk Tue Mar 24 14:55:24 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
I agree with Jas. Deflation full steam ahead.
Mannwich Tue Mar 24 14:55:32 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Jas: Time for medication,man"
---
Medication is on the way, courtesy of Dr Bernanke.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 14:58:01 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I wonder what impact Obama's press conference tonight will have on the market?
Perhaps someone will ask about contingency plans for the economy.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 14:58:55 2009 CDT #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Man, these schmucks play dirty pool, eh? Nice dump right at the end.
Good for my intermediate-term short bet. But, what a market.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Tue Mar 24 15:03:17 2009 CDT #
Wallie says:
the TBT trade is to buy at yields below 3.5% and sell prompt month covered calls at yields above 3.75% with strikes equating to yields north of 4%. premiums reduce your basis to levels even the fed can't manipulate down to.
Wallie Tue Mar 24 15:03:42 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
Twould be nice if they bought the california bonds we've been hearing advertised every 15 minutes on the radio. Is anyone buying these bonds?
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Tue Mar 24 15:04:28 2009 CDT #
MS says:
as usual you won't touch the ramifications of where the money for the "swapped" debt instrument simply because it doesn't support your argument...
next statement...
"(say chinese sell and feds buy)"
That's exactly what's about to happen.
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 24 15:05:02 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
MS,
I agree with Jas with regards to the repo process. It's a standard central banking swap, albeit it has been greatly expanded.
The fed's longer term treasury purchases and longer term mortgage purchases are a different story. The lower interest rates imply and over-payment by the fed - another sham to recapitalize banks via stealth. It's a rinse and repeat process too. Banks buy mortgages and treasuries and dump them at the fed for a higher price.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 15:05:45 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
One more time:
Borrowing in the open market, as the UST does, is NOT the same as "Printing Money," you dopes. It is a propaganda tool to keep the dopes from buying the long-term USTs! Crooks hold most of the private holdings of the long-term USTs!! Crooks want dopes to buy Scams!!!
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 15:05:46 2009 CDT #
GS Trading Desk says:
Take 'em out! Down! Down! Down!
GS Trading Desk Tue Mar 24 15:05:57 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Treasury rally may be over, bond dealers say
REBear Tue Mar 24 15:06:55 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Its been a loser bet for 20 years
That's in line with the credit cycle. They go boom in the near future, cycle is already trying to reverse. If you believe the Fed can create something from nothing, then by all means, stay long.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 15:11:19 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
How will this affect the rates on a 30 year negative equity loan?
Morocco Bama Tue Mar 24 15:12:09 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
jas = indian dope
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 15:12:15 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Treasury rally may be over, bond dealers say
REBear Tue Mar 24 15:18:43 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Speaking of short - into FAZ again...rinse lather repeat!
Barley Tue Mar 24 15:19:04 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
Jas needs lessons in humility and politeness, but his calls have been 100% accurate thus far. He stated at least two years ago he was long Treasuries and I remember the scorn that was heaped on him for it (not that he isn't as easy target). You'd all be wise to listen to what he says and ignore how he says it.
TCA Tue Mar 24 15:21:58 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Reality sucks therefore we must redouble our efforts to change your perception.
Guest Tue Mar 24 15:22:02 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
the fed must believe that lowering long term rates (cost of capital) by a few bps will materially, positively impact the appetite of investors to buy the crap debt from banks and for banks to resume making really poor loan decisions all over again at levels great enough to stimulate nice growth in the economy. sweet plan, don't see how it's gonna fail.
the man from nantucket Tue Mar 24 15:22:27 2009 CDT #
nades says:
This does not end well..... >:o
nades Tue Mar 24 15:23:08 2009 CDT #
MS says:
Angry-
Patience.....he has a circular argument....maybe others will begin to see it.
I know exactly what repo's are and do......he forgets the part about pegging value at a fantasy level. That works on Treasuries as well....;-)
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 24 15:23:36 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
DO
LOOP UNTIL TEOWAWEKI
Darth Paulson Tue Mar 24 15:23:59 2009 CDT #
Chubby Davis says:
If I just had a couple of bucks left, just a couple of bucks left, I show them.
Chubby Davis Tue Mar 24 15:25:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Jas is a dope
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 15:27:04 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
The next thread up isn't accepting any of my comments and shows zero for everybody. Testing to see what happens here.
Test
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 16:55:56 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
The reply/delete buttons never appear in the next up thread.
The impossible can't be done. Therefore G. can't do it. I watch and wait at my front row seat at the End of the World. *DONT_KNOW*
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 16:58:26 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
I read an article yesterday (can't remember where) by a guy that looked at the h.somethings at the fed and came to the conclusion that repo activity had dropped off to insignificant while we ramped up alphabet soup programs.
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Tue Mar 24 17:05:48 2009 CDT #
Comrade_Terry says:
Huzzah! Liz fixed it!
Comrade_Terry Tue Mar 24 17:06:22 2009 CDT #
NewBondBear says:
You mean there are dopes here that were short USTs? Amazing ignorance of how things work.
jas, why would'nt one sell into year end '08 pump when the long end went parabolic to 2.50 yield's?
This was the 'no brainer' trade of the year, and i'm on record back on many posts and threads saying so.
We've yet to hear your defence of holding a 30year at a yield of 2.5%. it makes NO SENSE.
NewBondBear Tue Mar 24 17:08:32 2009 CDT #
rc says:
Here is the problem with the Fed plan and why long term rates will go up. No way around it.
“The market’s euphoria with the Fed has to confront the harsh reality of the supply,” said Lawrence Dyer, an interest- rate strategist in New York at HSBC Securities USA Inc., one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “There is still more supply coming than the Fed will be buying.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aDKNO3HpIe58&refer=us
rc Tue Mar 24 17:28:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Gold, Guns, And Groceries. Protect yourself from these thieves.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:32:08 2009 CDT #
ryph says:
Jas,
Wouldn't you agree that the Fed can support either Treasuries or the dollar, not both?
What makes you think a much lower dollar wont bring about cost-push inflation?
ryph Tue Mar 24 17:45:07 2009 CDT #
Stuart says:
And what would it say about Target or Walmart if they had to buy their own goods? :-E
Stuart Tue Mar 24 20:54:07 2009 CDT #
END