Comments for Volcker on Inflation, the Dollar and China
Haralambos says:
Clear thinking? I do think so.
The new commenting functions is a problem for me.
Haralambos Tue Mar 24 16:54:48 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
It works?
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 16:55:13 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
:-D
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 16:55:39 2009 CDT #
Colin says:
Volcker just got a pacemaker, but they still need to be using him more in the policy discussion.
Colin Tue Mar 24 16:55:59 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Look at the bright side.. It will collapse faster.
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 16:56:46 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Sixth?
Nemo Tue Mar 24 16:57:34 2009 CDT #
Divide by 0 says:
Where does he get off criticizing our new Chinese Overlords? =-O
Divide by 0 Tue Mar 24 16:57:57 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Anyone in the administration that critizes the Chinese needs to get a dispensation and he got it cleared. Chinese know that American Crooks need to pander to the dopes. They understand our system very well. They have some of the most influential Americans on their payroll.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:42:05 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
They bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say let them crash.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 16:58:34 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..........what he said ?....." little disingenuous ".......no way .........
Jay D. Tue Mar 24 16:59:27 2009 CDT #
Gubbmint Cheese says:
them's fightin words..
Gubbmint Cheese Tue Mar 24 16:59:28 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
It will all end in tears...! How can the current Fed policy be anything except inflationary?
Guest Tue Mar 24 16:59:47 2009 CDT #
goadam says:
it is supposed to be inflationary.
Parent Post
goadam Tue Mar 24 17:18:50 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Volcker is one of the few who get it. The China bit was 100% dead nuts - they have no one but themselves to blame for 'overdosing' on dollar assets. That export buzz was might fine while it lasted - the Jones will be a bitch.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 17:00:23 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
I think that unless most people realize that ox-bridge and ivy leaguers are harmful and disingenuous idiots who are best used as fuel for incinerators, we will not change for the better.
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 17:00:36 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
relevant: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/24/53936/energy-fundamentals-shifting/
Oil + Distillate pricing
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 17:01:28 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
Rob Dawg says:
They bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say let them crash.
Guess I picked a bad decade to quit sniffing glue!
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Tue Mar 24 17:02:30 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
What does it mean to start quantitative easing a week before G20 meeting? Are we taking the 'I dare you' approach???
>>
Maybe the Fed should buy 80% of toxic js-kit. They could use js-kit to document interactions with banksters.
REBear Tue Mar 24 17:03:10 2009 CDT #
sporkfed says:
Will this comment go to JS-Kit limbo ?
sporkfed Tue Mar 24 17:03:11 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Test
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 17:03:18 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Four Yuan to the buck and massive unemployment makes Chin a restive boy.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 17:05:14 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Ok, so refreshing caused my comment to post.
Really, this system is terrible!!
Response to HomeDad. I have no idea what the event of the event horizon will be. I'm just watching from my front row seat at the End of the World.
Volker==my Hero.
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 17:05:38 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Dopes spend too much time on what important people say and not on what they really do.
The fix is in for dopes. They can't be undoped.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:05:40 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"They bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say let them crash."
Rob Dawg, I assume you mean China.. and if you do I agree 100%....
citiprank Tue Mar 24 17:06:07 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
I assume he meant that China didn't want their currency to strengthen.
But when he talks about it being better for the Fed to seek "stability the currency", does that mean dollar-vs-consumer goods (i.e. low inflation), dollar-vs-other currencies (trade balance?), dollar-vs-assets (housing &/or stock prices?), or ????
After all, the dollar can't remain stable against everything! In that case no one (in the financial sector at least) would be making any money! Then again, maybe that *should* be the goal! If we had stability in the currency and profits could only be earned through honest productive work...
BTW, if this stock market rally is supposed to be real, how come the corporate bond funds aren't going along? They were whacked with the stocks last fall, and one would expect them to recover in-line with the stocks...
Or is it that the stock market is only rallying because of bear market dynamics, bailout hype and maybe some print-and-spend inflation fears? So the corporate bonds are therefore not going along?
Hmm...
Wisdom Speaker Tue Mar 24 17:06:14 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
I assume he meant that China didn't want their currency to strengthen.
He's an old man, cut him some slack... let Volcker be Volcker.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 17:10:44 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Why yes, Wisdom Seeker, you've found Wisdom.
Parent Post
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 17:12:58 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
actually if the this plan was going cure the banks then along with stocks rallying we should have have seen a massive rally in the front month euro dollars and a big sell of in the back months. If the banks are all going to be brought back to health then there is no reason for LIBOR to trade over .7%.
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:32:58 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
stupid question, but i always get relative directional terms backwards, but why would selling dollars "depreciate" the renminbi? wouldn't it actually do the reverse?
Basel Too Tue Mar 24 17:06:19 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
Lucifer says:
I think that unless most people realize that ox-bridge and ivy leaguers are harmful and disingenuous idiots who are best used as fuel for incinerators
Less than 10 posts in and we've hit Godwin.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Tue Mar 24 17:06:52 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Less than 10 posts in and we've hit Godwin.
Fat tails.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 17:07:38 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
CR, I hope you're seriously considering alternate commenting systems. js-kit really stinks, bad. I don't think I've come across one worse than this.
bearly Tue Mar 24 17:07:43 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
The first thing that a BBAD is taught is to blame someone else. That is #1 reason why he remains a dope-for-life. Volcker is better than other agents fo the Crooks but he nevertheless is an agent of the Crooks in order to have importance.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:10:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
:)FDIC’s Bair Says U.S. Credit Markets Show Signs of ‘Thawing’ :)
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said credit markets are signaling liquidity is returning, banks are starting to make money and government rescue programs are working.
“I’m starting to get more optimism,” Bair said today during an interview on Bloomberg Television. “I think we are seeing some signs of thawing, some signs of improvement. Many banks are making money.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMgQg9SeyS.s&refer=home
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:10:12 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Well, that's if you only count the posts that actually posted. Total posts including the eaten ones are prolly in the hundreds!
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 17:10:14 2009 CDT #
NewBondBear says:
re post from dead thread
You mean there are dopes here that were short USTs? Amazing ignorance of how things work.
jas, why would'nt one sell into year end '08 pump when the long end went parabolic to 2.50 yield's?
This was the 'no brainer' trade of the year, and i'm on record back on many posts and threads saying so.
We've yet to hear your defence of holding a 30year at a yield of 2.5%. it makes NO SENSE.
NewBondBear Tue Mar 24 17:11:02 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Calling no-brainers after the fact is a sign of a dope. I did hedge partially at 135 on the futures. I was also short naked 142C-115P strangle (I POSTED HERE) on which I have made a ton. Dopes must not be giving advice to those with a fantastic record for 18 years in USTs.
I do expect long bond yields to hit new lows. So, I don't call tops in price on every rally that is followed by a correction. The 27.5-year bull market is very much alive.
DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION IS DEAD AHEAD.
I love my USTs and nothing gives me greater confidence than being told by dopes that I am wrong for the past 11 years that I have been posting in public forums/blogs.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:22:54 2009 CDT #
John Anderson says:
Jas, I'm in agreement with you on the deflation front. Why anyone would think that a measely 1 or 2 trillion USD printed up by the Fed will counter the huge destruction of money and credit that is ongoing is beyond me...
The Fed would have to create like 20x that amount and they still couldn't force it in to the economy.
Parent Post
John Anderson Tue Mar 24 17:50:43 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Fed and the USG are behind by a factor of 5:1 to 10:1 to really counter the deflationary forces. They can’t do too much more than what they have done without creating an instant crash of the global financial system.
Fed and the USG are impotent to counter deflation without destroying the system. Dopes CANNOT understand deflation because they don’t understand debt and its consequences. The fix is in.
Jas
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Jas Tue Mar 24 17:59:39 2009 CDT #
Grinder says:
Jas,
Nice long term call.
what is your signal to reverse your deflationary bond thesis?
tia
Parent Post
Grinder Tue Mar 24 18:10:56 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
"Jas, Nice long term call. what is your signal to reverse your deflationary bond thesis? tia"
When a large % of people have more BORROWED money (in excess of their incomes) to spend. Very little of govt's borrowed money is going to the people for spending purposes. Right now the USG is limited in how much money it can push for spending purposes. The single most important factor id “Aggregate Demand,” including for housing and rentals. I fully expect rents to go down in majority of the US metros and the wages to go down as well. Both are highly deflationary once they get some traction.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 18:22:58 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
test??? test???
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 17:11:17 2009 CDT #
The Sum of All Banking Evil says:
Remind me again why Obama failed to choose Volcker as Treasury chief? Because he wanted to fail?
The Sum of All Banking Evil Tue Mar 24 17:11:41 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
No, Obama was sold to the Rubin-Summers gang. Volcker is too much of a gentleman. You don't own the Presidents, you dopes. Crooks do. Denial wouldn't do anything useful.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:25:23 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
Lucifer that's just mean. And a horrific overgeneralization.
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Tue Mar 24 17:11:44 2009 CDT #
Punditry says:
Less than 10 posts in and we've hit Godwin.
i did a search and not one N or H word here. not official yet
Punditry Tue Mar 24 17:12:38 2009 CDT #
ac says:
One thing I've gotten from Mancur Olson's books is that having a government that reliably enforces long-term contracts is essential to having a prosperous first world economy.
The dollar is the most fundamental long-term financial contract we have.
If the government is unwilling to enforce that, one must suspect that we are not in fact a first world economy.
ac Tue Mar 24 17:12:59 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
Brad Setser recently pointed out that if you keep your currency undervalued, it's difficult not to lose money on your foreign investments even though the weak currency helps your exports.
traderwalt Tue Mar 24 17:16:10 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
I can't stand the comment system.
Nitey-nite amigos and amigas.
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 24 17:17:28 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
The Fed's concern with inflation too low to promote growth is also a concern about deflation. Read between the lines of the last Fed policy statement.
reptillian Tue Mar 24 17:19:40 2009 CDT #
sanjay says:
never quite understood how a zero percent interest rate helps fight deflation. All that it allows is for excess capacity to kept alive and for people to hold onto overvalued assets. Furthermore, if there are no solvent borrowers a zero interest rate just saps demand from savers without increased demand from borrowers. So in fact you get the worst of all worlds- excess capacity and falling demand. I have all along maintained that this was the root cause of the Japanese problem- low rates just forced more saving and less consumption in a nation that wasn't used to borrowing. The same will happen in the US except in our case it will unable to borrower rather than unwilling to borrow.
Parent Post
sanjay Tue Mar 24 17:39:30 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"Many banks are making money."
Then those are the banks that should survive. Propping up ailing banks on the theory that they are too big too fail simply crowds out relatively healthy banks. Some of us still think competition is good for the economy.
ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 24 17:19:57 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
And the best way to make money for the banks has been to buy long-term Treasuries!
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:34:11 2009 CDT #
bobn says:
Lawyerliz said: I can't stand the comment system. Nitey-nite amigos and amigas.
"This is how the world ends, not with a bang, but a whimper" - T. S. Eliot
bobn Tue Mar 24 17:21:57 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I am going to watch the O-man's news conference tonight.
reptillian Tue Mar 24 17:23:02 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Yeah, he is a good actor. He belongs in Hollywood.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:31:11 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Also, we may have a tremendous poetic irony on our hands:
Our central government with their seemingly insatiable desire to expand their power seems to be intent on doing it by destroying the single most important source of power they have: The dollar.
One day our congress is going to wake up emasculated and realize that their power lust was the very thing that caused them to lose access to the funding vital to their existence.
The will also learn that they cannot replace credit with force or intimidation because it is precisely the cooperative nature of credit that leads to the economic benefits it provides access to.
As always, though. We have to learn everything the hard way.
Politics obliterates the lessons of history it seems.
ac Tue Mar 24 17:23:21 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
NO, Crooks will not destroy the dollar. They will destroy the savings of the dopes. That is, whatever has not already been destroyed. Dopes haven't a clue as to what the Crooks were up to, are up to, and will be up to. Crooks have a plan and dopes don't.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:37:16 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
goadam - it is disinfaltion that is to avoided.
UK's inflation rate hit 3.7 last month. Ford is raising the UK prices by 3.7%. Wages over the last year in the UK have risen .09%. Tells me thing will get a bit more iffy on the consumer side.
Barley Tue Mar 24 17:24:45 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Remind me again why Obama failed to choose Volcker as Treasury chief? Because he wanted to fail?
Because Volcker would have said "No - if you want me I'll be hanging around the pool or over by the shuffle board... and I nap from 2 until dinner at 5 so don't call then... any other questions whipper snapper?"
dryfly Tue Mar 24 17:25:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
If the dollar depreciates then the Chinese central bank must get the yuan lower, that's what V. is talking about. A race to the bottom to keep exports going. It's beggar thy neighbor on the part of the US government.
What does it mean to start quantitative easing a week before G20 meeting? Are we taking the 'I dare you' approach???
Yes
US policymakers seems to believe they are in the drivers seat, while China and Germany stew.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:25:13 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
ac - it is called the rise and fall of an empire once the dollar gets debased, global influence will wane.
Barley Tue Mar 24 17:26:44 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“Remind me again why Obama failed to choose Volcker as Treasury chief? Because he wanted to fail?
Why didn't we choose Volcker as president?
I would've gotten up early to vote for him.
ac Tue Mar 24 17:29:38 2009 CDT #
bobn says:
"Remind me again why Obama failed to choose Volcker as Treasury chief?"
IIRC he rejected the offer, but that could be my memory failing. Too damn bad.
bobn Tue Mar 24 17:30:08 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
If the dollar depreciates then the Chinese central bank must get the yuan lower, that's what V. is talking about. A race to the bottom to keep exports going. It's beggar thy neighbor on the part of the US government.
Well it is either that or they agree to keep buying all the debt we can print so they can send us tons more lead covered toys.
They have a choice (a) either our currency gets weak and we have to [prepare for the horror] work & make stuff ourselves or (b) they bust their ass to send us kewl stuff and we give them shiny paper.
What is so hard to fathom about the choice? V gets it why not the ROW?
dryfly Tue Mar 24 17:30:29 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
dryfly says:
"Well it is either that or they agree to keep buying all the debt we can print so they can send us tons more lead covered toys."
It's not like their home economy will be able to buy all the crap they produce. There's just not enough capital amongst all the peasants.
Plus, on $10/day there aren't many laborers who can sprint the cash for a nice new iPhone.
Parent Post
Splat Tue Mar 24 17:38:30 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
It's not like their home economy will be able to buy all the crap they produce. There's just not enough capital amongst all the peasants.
Plus, on $10/day there aren't many laborers who can sprint the cash for a nice new iPhone.
That doesn't matter - they still face the SAME choice... (1) buy our debt & maintain their peg to send us stuff CHEAP... we get the stuff & they get increasingly worthless paper OR (2) our currency weakens and we have to [again - HORROR] make our own iPhones & other stuff or not buy the crap at all.
There is no magic policy fairy that can alter this dilemma - that can somehow keep us all prosperous 'service workers', our dollar strong, our current account deficits high and growing and the ferriners dollar assets safe. Something has to give.
It just blows my mind that neither Americans nor the Chinese get this? I guess it's one of those 'my livelihood depends on me not understanding' kind of things. Oh well - they'll get it soon enough.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 18:03:02 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Well stated.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 18:05:41 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Threads Must Die (aka bobn),
Ok, I am going to ask a few simple questions to make my point.
1. How did we get into this mess? Was it not to maintain the status quo?
2. Who benefits the most from our current status quo? Who will lose the most if it changes?
3. Who is running the system? Why are we letting them run it?
4. Has cleverness (as opposed to intelligence) ever lead to any useful innovation? Why have breakthroughs in almost all areas of human endeavour come from system outsiders rather than its high priests?
5. If predicting the future past 5-10 years is essentially worthless, why are we paying people to do it?
6. Given that these 'high priests' have almost always failed to anticipate the future why should we trust them? What makes them special or more infalliable than a drunk chimp?
7. Really, what makes them special- other than being good at jumping through their own hoops?
Lastly- what does IQ measure - cleverness or intelligence? Think about that one!
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 17:31:34 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
Amen.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:43:07 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
NYU Stern School of Business
CRbot Tue Mar 24 17:32:59 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with about a dozen top bank chief executives on Friday, including executives from JPMorgan & Co , Goldman Sachs and Citigroup , a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2437639820090324
They better take money with them because Ho is gonna want some campaign contributions.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:35:09 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[6. Given that these 'high priests' have almost always failed to anticipate the future why should we trust them? What makes them special or more infalliable than a drunk chimp?]
You have it all wrong -- The high priests *CRAFT* the future. They get shitcanned when their work fails to produce the future they describe in advance.
bearly Tue Mar 24 17:39:15 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
This is the 64 <Strike>dollar</Strike>trillion question for tongight's news conference: We've heard about how the taxpayer may profit from the plan, less than the investors could, but I suppose some profit is better than no profit, but what happens if there is a loss? Won't taxpayer losses be staggering compared to what the investors would lose?
reptillian Tue Mar 24 17:39:36 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Volcker get credit where none is due. The man is a sham.
It was under Volcker's watch that Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) was subtituted for actual house prices in the CPI. The housing bubble never would have occured if CPI included house prices as inflation would have been at double digit rates. Much of Volcker's inflation fighting rep came from this sleight of hand.
Beyond that, Volcker paid cash investors > 4% real yields. Talk about welfare. Another something for nothing central banker empty promise, just like housing inflation.
Imo, there has never been a good central banker, except gold.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 17:41:00 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Sanjay,
There is no answer in a debt saturated eCONomy. Debt deflation leads to cascading defaults. Inflation is theft.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 17:44:05 2009 CDT #
bobn says:
i did a search and not one N or H word here. not official yet
When Lucifer started talking about incinerating people based on what schools they went to, it twinged my Godwin detector.
I am much more reasonable. I merely want to hang Banksters and De-regulationists. ;)
bobn Tue Mar 24 17:44:14 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
Mr. Volcker states that our history and reputation are our strengths. Were are strengths is the appropriate tense. Each generation forms opinions about the world we live in and who are the good guys and who are the bad. The US has represented much that is wrong with the world for many of those who live outside our borders. Even our longtime allies have been hurt by our corruption and selfishness. The "what have you done for me lately" attitude is firmly in place and the answer to that question is nothing but harm.
Funny thing is that we are looking outside our borders for a way out of this mess. We often applaud the Europeans for their mass demonstrations and government policies. Sweden is completely doing away with bonuses for any state owned organization. The logic was that those that depend on bonuses take bigger risks in trying to attain larger bonuses. Too much common sense is genius. Wonder why we can't figure it out.
DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 17:44:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
An article worth reading:
The Disadvantages of an Elite Education
http://www.theamericanscholar.org/the-disadvantages-of-an-elite-education/
Pretty much sums up why Ivy Leaguers keep getting us all into such shitholes. Written by a former longtime Yale professor.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:46:33 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
The US Dollar?
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/23/financial-de-globalization-illustrated/#more-5011
Net private outflows, and official sources are following suit
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 17:46:38 2009 CDT #
Pax Romana says:
Smoke some joint. Tune in Tune out. Now we screwed the Chinese, whose next?
Pax Romana Tue Mar 24 17:48:09 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Haloscan, can you hear us? Are you out there? Pleeaazzze come back!!! O:-)
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:48:45 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
as for street protests, we only admire Europeans for it because they're Europeans. When Americans do it, we tend to look away.re
I mean, watch this protest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhgPFqdFPZo
Most of the well-heeled, Good and Great of the investor class would probably not care to stand beside this dusky rabble, right?
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 17:50:39 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Short Sales Rise to Most Since September, NYSE Says (Update2)
By Lynn Thomasson
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bets against U.S. stocks reached the highest since September, according to short-selling data released by the New York Stock Exchange.
More than 16.1 billion shares were sold short on the NYSE as of March 13, the exchange said today. That’s the most since 17.1 billion on Sept. 15, the day Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy. Short selling is the sale of borrowed stock in the hope of profiting by buying the securities later at a lower price and returning them to the shareholder.
“It shows a great deal of nervousness,” said Jerome Dodson, who oversees $1.6 billion at Parnassus Investments in San Francisco. “A lot of the rally we saw yesterday was probably short covering because everything moved up so high, so fast.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=alqMklQnptWE
energyecon Tue Mar 24 17:52:52 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
---
From the previous thread…
ryph says:Today, 3:45:07 PM “Jas, Wouldn't you agree that the Fed can support either Treasuries or the dollar, not both? What makes you think a much lower dollar wont bring about cost-push inflation?”
No I don’t agree with your premise.
What cost push inflation are you talking about?
What % of US consumption is imported? What % of the US consumption is in the form of US labor costs in dollars?? Are residential and commercial rents affected by the price of the dollar relative to other currencies???
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 17:53:53 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
bearly,
Yes, they try to craft a future. But the problem is that chaotic systems (like the economy) cannot be reliably regulated or altered.
That is why I believe that the "Delusion of Control" comes after the "Delusion of Knowledge"
Simple Question- Does Gravity diminish with distance like other fundamental forces? Over volumes the size of our solar system.. sure. Over intra-stellar or inter-galactic distances.. ?? You can either believe in dark matter or accept that gravity does not decay over larger distances at the same rate as other fundamental forces.
Guess which idea is more popular!
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 17:53:54 2009 CDT #
bobn says:
Lucifer: Ok, I am going to ask a few simple questions to make my point.
If your point is that they are all incoimpetent, entitled mediocrities, I agree. Fire all of them that meet that description, ands maybe a few more just to be sure. Just don't talk about putting people in ovens - very bad karma.
bobn Tue Mar 24 17:54:56 2009 CDT #
ac says:
More than 16.1 billion shares were sold short on the NYSE as of March 13, the exchange said today.
That goes a long way in explaining the rally yesterday.
So much for the arguments that there were no shorts to squeeze.
ac Tue Mar 24 17:56:46 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"We've heard about how the taxpayer may profit from the plan"
I don't get that claim at all; I thought the math worked out that if the taxpayer funds two buckets -- Treasury and FDIC -- then even if the Treasury bucket turns a profit the FDIC bucket will take a much larger loss.
Just checked Nemo's site... he has a formula up that might shed some light on whether any outcome results in a net gain for the taxpayer. Has anyone already crunched numbers and found a scenario that actually benefits both the Treasury and FDIC buckets?
ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 24 17:56:52 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
Russian FM Lavrov says he is very concerned about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
What happens after inflationary depression - assuming it occurs?
Pavel Tue Mar 24 17:58:55 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Here is a link to the U.S. Army Survival Manual -- FM 21-76 -- PDF!!
reptillian Tue Mar 24 17:59:52 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Yes, but they will try to weasel back into their former roles. Killing them and their kids would break that cycle.
In any case, many of them believe that they are 'divinely' blessed to lord over others and deprive others of a decent existence to justify their beliefs.
//If your point is that they are all incoimpetent, entitled mediocrities, I agree. Fire all of them that meet that description, ands maybe a few more just to be sure. Just don't talk about putting people in ovens - very bad karma.//
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 17:59:55 2009 CDT #
Max says:
So, Nemo, what are you going to do with all that fame? I think it's time to publish that manifesto. ;)
Max Tue Mar 24 18:02:34 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
America is like Js-Kit now; a half-baked, willy-nilly contraption which eats all my efforts and returns nothing!
Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 18:03:14 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"inflationary depression "
deflationary
Pavel Tue Mar 24 18:03:16 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
Anon- The heart warms at the poor minorities speaking out against the individuals responsible. Personally I think this is the correct path. Don't protest a large corporation or organization. Protest the executives. Funny how the rabble outside your front door or office will sharpen your will to do good.
DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 18:03:18 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
ac - thats why I dived into FAZ today.
Barley Tue Mar 24 18:05:35 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Geithner's Arrogance Knows No Bounds
CRbot Tue Mar 24 18:06:35 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
.........“Short Sales Rise to Most Since September, NYSE Says (Update2)"
........
.............sure way to commit a suicide.......especially nowadays......remember market always goes against wishful-thinking.......
Jay D. Tue Mar 24 18:09:05 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
I am shocked that Geitner is arrogant and stupid.. who knew.. :
//CRbot says:Today, 17:06:35
The Latest from Mish:
Geithner's Arrogance Knows No Bounds //
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 18:09:25 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Only the arrogant survive!
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 18:25:09 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Chinese tears, so delicious. But, I suspect I will be hungry for more soon.
Curious if, the plan to end all plans, with no need for back-up, is going to BK the FDIC. To take money from healthy banks and CU's and give it to the insolvent. I'd think the FDIC members would have a few things to say about that. Would they be able to opt out and form an alternate insurance plan? Has anyone heard anything from them?
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 18:12:27 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Curious if, the plan to end all plans, with no need for back-up, is going to BK the FDIC.
Sheila on Kudlow tonight - only say a small bit of it - in essence 'what, me worry?'...
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 18:31:33 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"what is your signal to reverse your deflationary bond thesis?"
When Feds announce suspension of interest payments for ten years. Ho ho.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 18:14:23 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
This is a huge regional story (I would suspect)
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102311669
EPA put mountaintop mining permit on hold (eg Appalachian coal)
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 18:16:19 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
...........Chinese tears, so delicious. But, I suspect I will be hungry for more soon.......
________________________________________________________________________
.........without chinese help , US will suffer longer to get out of this century's recession.......they are savior of USofA........read more........
Jay D. Tue Mar 24 18:16:35 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
".........without chinese help , US will suffer longer to get out of this century's recession.......they are savior of USofA........"
That is quite an outrageous claim, given the lack of reasoning to support it. Sounds like some wishful thinking.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 18:26:26 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Here is the result of the OER implemented on Volcker's watch:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FNM#chart2:symbol=fnm;range=my;compare=c+aig;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Inflation fighter my @ss. Volcker changed the unit of measurement, like going from yards to inches.
What a sham.
Angry Saver Tue Mar 24 18:18:14 2009 CDT #
Cynical Crap Shooter says:
How can the current Fed policy be anything except inflationary?
The "how" remains to be seen - the "why" is because 99% of you expect it to be inflationary. Expecting inflation is the most crowded position since QCOM in early 2000.
Cynical Crap Shooter Tue Mar 24 18:20:31 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Good reply.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 18:24:22 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
FWIW The women in pink protesting behind Geithner say that all is not lost for our country. Might just be a head fake to make us think we have the right to protest or to think "hey somebody is protesting so I don't have to" but it is comforting.
Women in pink, have to go googlin' to see if there is any info on who they represent.
DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 18:25:24 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
Looks like they have moved beyond protesting the war and into protesting the corruption. Good for them!
http://www.codepink4peace.org/article.php?list=type&type=3
DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 18:28:00 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
As long as foreign capital stays in the US, there won't be inflation. They'll just be substituting hard currency for contracting credit, net effect on the side of deflation.
If investor confidence in the US begins to falter, or rather their ability to keep up past flows is reduced, then there most certainly can be inflation. More likely than not it faces the familiar positive feedback loop resulting in effective default. All the remains to be seen is what the next US currency is (exchange $10 to $1, new name, unchanged but with higher prices). That next US currency won't be worth nothing, the US still has great resources, exportable stuff (or the capacity to quickly build those up), and has been a crucial source of demand globally.
We're going to go through a period of overdamping, shaking out unnatural international trade distortions. So long as governments try to protect their citizens' jobs — and in doing so, their own — the storm will get worse.
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 18:29:02 2009 CDT #
Punditry says:
Reprinted as NOT permitted by U.S. Department of the Army, but by we the citizenry who paid for it
phhugggin hilarious....
of course...though, they'll be tried for treason now that it's in the hands of the our enemies.
Punditry Tue Mar 24 18:29:35 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
........Blackhalo.......I know it's out rageous.....but the truth is the truth......that's the reality , always hard to swallow though ..........Ummmm..............
Jay D. Tue Mar 24 18:30:31 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
........Blackhalo.......I know it's out rageous.....but the truth is the truth......that's the reality , always hard to swallow though ..........Ummmm..............
The only way the Chinese 'save' the US is by unpegging and demanding value for the hard labor they expend to send us crap. They can save themselves at the same time by doing that - their people deserve better and we ought to carry more of the load and consume less - they are helping NO ONE by continuing policy that perpetuates that 'imbalance'.
It will end by design or it will end in chaos at both ends of the deal but it will end.
And that is going to be REALLY hard to swallow.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 18:37:30 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Jas, what will you do when US$ is abandoned as reserve currency?! Trade treasuries for local U.S.-made goods? Can't even get condoms now, man.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 18:31:12 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
earlier...
“Jas, Nice long term call. what is your signal to reverse your deflationary bond thesis? tia"
When a large % of people have more BORROWED money (in excess of their incomes) to spend. Very little of govt's borrowed money is going to the people for spending purposes. Right now the USG is limited in how much money it can push for spending purposes. The single most important factor id “Aggregate Demand,” including for housing and rentals. I fully expect rents to go down in majority of the US metros and the wages to go down as well. Both are highly deflationary once they get some traction.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 18:32:17 2009 CDT #
hanging by a thread says:
I am a state senator and have been cloistered in a Legislative session since January 4. Given the evidence that I am seeing, things continue to go to hell all accross the economy. What the hell is going on with the market? I have fellow Senators who don't want to cut anymore spending because the economy "has turned around". I need some of you deep thinkers to give me a few lines to use in debate. Thanks
hanging by a thread Tue Mar 24 18:32:18 2009 CDT #
BondsOfSteel says:
Hanging by a thread... It's clear that the state you fellow senators represent is the state of denial.
The economy is not yet turning around. Housing prices are still falling... which means the assets (loans) for these houses are still dropping.. and this in turn pushes holders of those assets (bank) toward insolvancy. This is having a wide effect on the overall economy. The economy will not recover untill housing prices stabilize. Best guess... Late 2009 to sometime 2011.
BTW, cutting state spending durring a recesion has the possiblity of making the recesion worse by increasing unemployment and decreasing demand for goods/services. The Keynesian model says the goverment should increase spending durring an ecconomic downturn. Now would be a good time to invest in infrastructure.
Parent Post
BondsOfSteel Tue Mar 24 19:18:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
US Imports in February were $160 billion. Annualized, that gives ~ $1.92 trillion which is ~ 13% in a $15T US economy. So even if there was a 40% USD devaluation over a few years, translates to maybe a 5% inflation over a few YEARS which might in effect mean a <1% per year contribution rate to CPI. This is assuming all that devaluation is passed onto consumers which might not even happen.
So Jas seems to be on the money here. Even a large USD devaluation will not seep into the CPI.
----------------------------------------------
What % of US consumption is imported?
Jas
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 18:32:24 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJdwzY1o7k8
Video from the front of a train/tram going through Barcelona in 1908
Look at all those people... just loafing around!
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 18:39:14 2009 CDT #
Allen C says:
"The Fed would have to create like 20x that amount and they still couldn't force it in to the economy."
Hmm...I suspect that if the Fed decided to purchase ALL outstanding govi paper, significant inflation would result.
Allen C Tue Mar 24 18:42:42 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Better to spend the money on those who might consume US output first
So dumping sacks of cash from a helicopter in poor neighbourhoods, instead of foreign investors
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 18:48:35 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
US Imports in February were $160 billion. Annualized, that gives ~ $1.92 trillion which is ~ 13% in a $15T US economy. So even if there was a 40% USD devaluation over a few years, translates to maybe a 5% inflation over a few YEARS which might in effect mean a g.t. 1% per year contribution rate to CPI. This is assuming all that devaluation is passed onto consumers which might not even happen.
So Jas seems to be on the money here. Even a large USD devaluation will not seep into the CPI.
Depends on two other things (1) elasticity and (2) ability to make domestic substitution. If the products exhibit inelastic demand and not easily substituted... then domestics will also raise prices as the imports increase. In such a situation even if only 5% of the product was imported... a 40% devaluation might result in ALL product increasing 40% - at least until the domestics could ramp up production to make up for [and exclude] the higher priced imports. In such a case the domestics would use the imports as 'human shields'.
The thing is though it wouldn't be long and domestics WOULD be ramping up and we'd have fewer FIRE sector workers and more 'thing producers'.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 18:48:42 2009 CDT #
scone says:
The Chinese placed their bets, and they can't get off until the wheel stops spinning. But they can put their peasants to work on building all the back country infrastructure they've been neglecting to build the coastal stuff. They have plenty of money and could use a lot more roads, airports, etc. Or just put 20 million unemployed peasants in the Red Army and really freak people out.
scone Tue Mar 24 18:49:06 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
They have plenty of money and could use a lot more roads, airports, etc.
Clean air, clean water, safe food, better health care - the list of possibles just goes on and on.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 18:52:11 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
EHP is a neo-liberal? No restrictions on capital flows has gotten us here. Let the free markets direct capital and all will benefit. It was a great run while it lasted but since humans are motivated by fear and greed before love and benevolence I'll vote for protectionism and regulation.
Financiers have an agenda just like everybody else and benefiting all of humankind sure hasn't been high on the list. I'll concede the problems of nationalism but I'll stick with a more local control of my little corner before I agree to the wealthy elite view of how I should live my life. Their version is paying interest, taxes and doing as I am told because they know what's best. Riiight. /End populist rant/
DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 18:49:53 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
DIPing to China,
No, you misunderstand. A free market in theory is fine, but they really don't exist. There are players that tried to game the system for their own benefit, and it works for a while. However we are at the time of reconciliation
I'm sure you would empathize with a list of grievances from our modern globalized economy that I could produce which occurred, at least to the extent and pace they did, primarily because the system was gamed into an unstable/unsustainable region.
I'm certainly not to be confused with a neoliberal economist given what I know about the group. I'm kind of an unlabelled guy, with an emphasis on the system rather than the localized data point/plane.
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 19:01:09 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Between the EPA's action, a US carbon cap, collapse in Chinese demand, and http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/australia-carbon-cap-coal-industry.php
Australia bringing in a carbon cap...
bad time for the coal industry, maybe Nat Gas' gain? the impact is marginal, but we have got to be at the edge of the comfort zone
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 18:52:36 2009 CDT #
scone says:
dryfly says:
The thing is though it wouldn't be long and domestics WOULD be ramping up and we'd have fewer FIRE sector workers and more 'thing producers'.
.
I think that's part of the 'backroom' argument to sell this package to Congress, et.al. The economic warfare angle could not possibly have escaped their collective political brains.
scone Tue Mar 24 18:53:19 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
[NY] Gov. David Paterson is ordering 8,900 state workers be laid off after unions refused concessions amid a staggering economic downturn.
REBear Tue Mar 24 18:55:34 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Obama Press Conference on the Economy at 8 PM ET
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/obama-press-conference-on-economy-at-8.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
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Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
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CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Tue Mar 24 18:56:58 2009 CDT #
ychigo says:
From a story on NPR a few nights ago.
It mentioned that Chinese government is giving 10-15% discount to farmers in rural China for a new laundry washer. The story mentioned that the washer is retailed to farmers at 2400RMB (or about US$350). This represents about 6 months of income for the farmers.
I can't help but thinking that Chinese government is a lot better at this wealth transfer game than US. At least the farmers are all happy about getting something that they can use. In the US, we don't even get a T-Shirt.
ychigo Tue Mar 24 19:00:03 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
Dryfly,
I think they (the Chinese)do get it and don't know how to fix it. What they say publicly and leak privately is for domestic consumption.
traderwalt Tue Mar 24 19:00:04 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
...“I think the Chinese are a little disingenuous to say, ‘Now isn’t it so bad that we hold all these dollars.’ They hold all these dollars because they chose to buy the dollars...
I can not imagine that Volker said this !!
"...because they chose to buy the dollars..."
The Chineese chose to buy dollars ? With what did they buy dollars ?
Werner Tue Mar 24 19:01:19 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The Chinese chose to buy dollars ? With what did they buy dollars ?"
Chinese goods, of course. They could have gotten U.S. goods in exchange but settled for the dollars.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 19:05:52 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
scone @ 6:53:19 - I agree.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 19:02:07 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"In the US, we don't even get a T-Shirt"
You didn't go to the right congressional office then.
China announces it will spend $1 trillion on U.S.-made goods - buys 1 trillion McDonald's cheeseburgers.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 19:04:24 2009 CDT #
scone says:
dryfly says:
Today, 4:52:11 PM
“They have plenty of money and could use a lot more roads, airports, etc.
Clean air, clean water, safe food, better health care - the list of possibles just goes on and on.
.
And, unlike us, they could actually make it happen. Which makes us look bad. Which would please them to no end. And make the gov't people look like heroes. :-P
scone Tue Mar 24 19:04:28 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Jas says:
...Only the arrogant survive! ...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Then the Nazies would have survived . Oh wait, maybe ...
Werner Tue Mar 24 19:04:57 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
We're going to be eating each other in the alleyways, freezing to death in roadside tents, and committing heinous acts out of desperation. Oh sweet Jesus this is the fall of Civilization for the many and a new police state for the ones left to rule us.
Our rulers will begin to 'depopulate' us, as kings and chiefs have done throughout history when government legitimacy is threatened. Whether by starvation, or war, or a lab made nasty, we'll be culled like animals.
Our rulers feel they own the world. And there is no need for most of us know that the technology is built. Like our pyramid building predecessors, we will find our end in a shallow pit.
Good luck.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 19:06:52 2009 CDT #
DIPing to China says:
EHP-
I just took a jab. My apologies. I agree with your statement about the system being distorted and the time for reconciliation.
I want punishment to be the path to reconciliation. No one learns anything until they have faced the consequences for their actions.
DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 19:09:58 2009 CDT #
FaradaySheildedHeadgearBrigade says:
Hanging_By_A_Thread, based on your alias I'd guess you are a state senator in my state or immediately north or south.
Although the impact here has been less severe than in other regions surrounding this state, the amount of revenue generated by raw material exports and tourism can be expected to continue to fall for some time other than energy exports. This means a continuing declining tax base since those industries are major underlying sectors for the financial health of the state.
Anecdotally, the service sector layoffs seem to be accelerating to my eye, I saw another neighbor laid off last week - it would be worth having an aide do a simple straw poll of some of the major service providers in state like Convergys, AMEX, Discover, etc. and just asking simply "do you currently have, or plan to implement, a hiring freeze or layoffs in the next six months".
The local pundits like to point to health care growth as being good for the local economy, but, face it, we aren't going to generate wealth for the state by spending our money treating our own illnesses, unless those revenue streams lead out of state, and as more people default on health care they can't afford it's going to get dicey there too.
The governer's current plan to spend on needed highway infrastructure repairs and upgrades will help by bringing in and spending dollars, but, it's a small bucket compared to the current losses.
We had been riding high on the hog for some years with major real estate revenues. My friends wife is one of the last remaining employees of a local builder, last year they had 300 in-house employees, this year they have 10 (that's not counting all the crews and foremen they used). I contend that we have yet to mark to market the housing surplus in state - everyone has been holding their breath hoping the problem will soak up or get federalized... IMHO it is a vain hope.
FaradaySheildedHeadgearBrigade Tue Mar 24 19:15:26 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
This is way too depressing. I'm off to watch musick vids instead.
C
Counterpointer Tue Mar 24 19:41:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
what is it about this man volker? he is not the answer to our problem. the answer to our problem is to get rid of the FED and the banking cartel. Until that happens, this will continue. We need to assemble in front of the FED building with a jeep mounted 106 recoiless rifle and start firing he rounds into that monument to the stupidity of man.....and that's my story and i am stickin to it......
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 19:46:33 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"what is it about this man volker?" Well he did take some VERY unpopular actions that defeated inflation in the late 70's.
For the take your medicine crowd, he is a bit of a folk hero.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 20:06:02 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
told you, there are only two exit strategies
1) Inflate out of national debt
2) Raise taxes
too early to tell which one will be chosen but since historically we have been so easily manipulated by anyone willing to scream taxes, I share Mr. V concern.
8-)
yo all, DOW 36K yet again has been canceled till better times...
Comrade De Chaos Tue Mar 24 19:47:54 2009 CDT #
prairiedog says:
Anon: Assume all posts are yours. Thanks for the link to the elite of Yale. Also, the link to the protests by the "rabble".
prairiedog Tue Mar 24 21:33:04 2009 CDT #
wally says:
I think the basic point about which Volker is correct is that confidence in the currency underlies confidence in banks, not the other way around.
The irrational defense being thrown up for individual banks and individual bankers at any cost to taxpayers is based on the opposite assumption: that those banks and those bankers are the lynchpin of our system.
wally Tue Mar 24 21:41:36 2009 CDT #
bernandoo says:
--
Jas, you talk to much.
bernandoo Tue Mar 24 22:47:04 2009 CDT #
END