Comments for "Washington State Banks Under Stress"
Lawyerliz says:
!!
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 10:10:58 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Now, I'll read the post.
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 10:11:24 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
The best thing I like about this blog is that dopes are very eager to reveal themselves. They can't help thmeselves!
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Sun Mar 29 12:35:09 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
Anybody know of any other 'stressed' banks other than the four mentioned?
volker the viking Sun Mar 29 10:12:42 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
uhmm....all of them
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 10:13:34 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/1089688783459360944
CRbot Sun Mar 29 10:13:48 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
As I said yesterday, I don't understand why the Fla banks aren't failing. Maybe being from Florida, they are extra sneaky and sold off more of their mtges than others?
Except BankUnited. Why hasn't it gone under?
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 10:13:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Suntrust has benefitted from its ownership of coke stock. But itsconcentrations in Atl and Fl are worrying to say the least. JPM has long been rumored to want to own a nice southeast footpirnt and suntrust is a walking target - of course with the assistance of US taxpayers. that is...
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 10:16:37 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
Big Casino banks failed and now shopping mall/real-estate banks are going to fail. Consumer based economy really is a bitch.
Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 10:19:23 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
Suntrust sold the last of their Coke Stock last July. They have little available to help them with their large Alt A portfolio.
Anonymoustoo Sun Mar 29 10:19:43 2009 CDT #
barkingtribe says:
STI sold a good if not all their postion in Coke, took TARP money, cut it's dividend. Holds alot of CRE and C&D, carried at about 95% on the books. Badly managed. Good candidate in the long run for acquisition.
barkingtribe Sun Mar 29 10:21:12 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
unfortunatlely, many small banks were overweight FRE/FNM stock.
Basel Too Sun Mar 29 10:23:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
Know personally of a NW Florida that falls into the possibly too big to fail community banking policy. They have been unable to find a buyer for more than six months now. But the cost of allowing their bank to fail equals the resourses available to close at least 10 small troubled community banks. What do you do? Cose 10 small banks or one not so small bank. That is the 1 billion dollar question.
Anonymoustoo Sun Mar 29 10:25:06 2009 CDT #
longwaver says:
And yet we have Turbo Tax Timmy offering the following pearl of wisdom:
"U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that for the U.S. economy to recover from the recession, banks need to show more willingness to take risks and restore lending to businesses."
Maybe Timmy and Sheila should get together and decided what they want...
longwaver Sun Mar 29 10:28:55 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
“It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on him not understanding it.”
—Upton Sinclair
adornosghost Sun Mar 29 10:31:25 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Contained to Washington State. Good.
I'd say we are fast approaching the point where the banking industry can no longer be treated like a poorly regulated business and must be transitioned to a tightly regulated utility. Public and private utilities coexist in water, roads, electricity. Time to add a new industry to the list; banking.
Rob Dawg Sun Mar 29 10:32:47 2009 CDT #
azurite says:
Was that said w/snark? Many states deregulated utlities providing electricity--that's how we got Enron. That's why so many people are seeing their utility bills skyrocket. In some states, those utilities are "regulated" about as well as the banks have been, and with equally bad (for users/consumers) outcomes.
Parent Post
azurite Sun Mar 29 13:36:42 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
You need to be careful about replies three hours later in a dead thread. especially when most of us do not use the reply function for context.
Rob Dawg says:Today, 8:32:47 AM PDT
Contained to Washington State. Good.
I'd say we are fast approaching the point where the banking industry can no longer be treated like a poorly regulated business and must be transitioned to a tightly regulated utility. Public and private utilities coexist in water, roads, electricity. Time to add a new industry to the list; banking.
azurite replies:Today, 11:36:42 AM PDT
Was that said w/snark? Many states deregulated utlities providing electricity--that's how we got Enron. That's why so many people are seeing their utility bills skyrocket. In some states, those utilities are "regulated" about as well as the banks have been, and with equally bad (for users/consumers) outcomes.
You need to differentiate partial deregulation from true deregulation. Regardless i was talking about full traditional regulation.
Parent Post
Br\'er Dawg Sun Mar 29 13:43:31 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Yes, yes - more loans to those who cannot pay them back - Timmah sez banks will make it up in volume!
There is so much cognitive dissonance in what is emanating from T^2 (Timmah and Treasury) - banks must lend more to business, but from a post late in the last thread, people in the US will be living more within their means - which guarantees large scale business failures.
energyecon Sun Mar 29 10:34:07 2009 CDT #
Interesting Times says:
Dawg - Boring banking is good banking.
Interesting Times Sun Mar 29 10:38:09 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Dawg - Boring banking is good banking.
If only Tanta were here to remind us of "three, three and three."
Rob Dawg Sun Mar 29 10:40:19 2009 CDT #
Have a Great Depression! says:
excellent short video of geithner plan and how the banks will game it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-arbfLTCtI&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbenbittrolff%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F2009%2F03%2Fgreat%2Dflaw%2Din%2Dgeithner%2Dplan%2Dexplained%2Ehtml&feature=player_embedded
Have a Great Depression! Sun Mar 29 10:41:26 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
O/T :
(http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSN28261439._CH_.2400)
PREVIEW-Obama to seek NATO support for Afghanistan plan
WASHINGTON, March 29 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama will urge European allies to support his new strategy for Afghanistan, telling NATO partners this week their security could be at risk if the country falls into chaos
-----------------
After these irresponsible AAA-lying, money-printing Americans blessed us with this nice financial and economic mess, they want our support for them to fight in Afghanistan ??
Why the hell would any European want to die for them in Afghanistan ?? Is Obama drunk ??
So, in addition of getting kicked out of the G-20 and loosing the dollar as reserve currency (the currency of a bankrupt nation as world reserve currency makes good sense.) , he now will be laughed out of the room at NATO. Hahaha.
AAA-lying and money-printing Americans need to be avoided like the plague !
Werner Sun Mar 29 10:42:07 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
I know nobody willing to take a risk who qualifies for a loan, and nobody
else wants to take a risk.
The people who are willing to take a risk, after many years of being successful, have failed, and seemingly one failure is enough to override all those successes for the banks now. Some have managed to cadge money from realitves for a new venture. The rest are trying to pay their day to day expenses but doing really small projects.
This is all nonsense. It won't work 'cause it can't work.
And as to warming/cooling, I remarked to the hub that it would be superironic if global warming was counteracting sun-based global cooling.
There is no normal. There never was.
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 10:43:55 2009 CDT #
jm says:
Laywerliz wrote, "it would be superironic if global warming was counteracting sun-based global cooling."
Since solar activity is cyclical, we can be sure that any sun-based global cooling will eventually reverse. Then the greenhouse warming will be additive to normal solar input. Kind of like the other day, when I turned up the thermostat several degrees in the evening because a strong wind was making the house cold, and then woke up sweltering after the wind dropped in the wee hours.
Alas, with greenhouse gases we can't just turn down the thermostat when the sun returns to normal activity; once they're in the atmosphere, for all practical purposes there's no way to get them out.
Parent Post
jm Sun Mar 29 11:29:58 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
So, in addition of getting kicked out of the G-20 and loosing the dollar as reserve currency (the currency of a bankrupt nation as world reserve currency makes good sense.) , he now will be laughed out of the room at NATO. Hahaha.
AAA-lying and money-printing Americans need to be avoided like the plague ! - Werner
Ohhh puuuleze Br'er Euro! Don' go throwin' us poor 'merikins in that there briar patch of isolationism! Puuuuleze! - Br'er Dawg
Br\'er Dawg Sun Mar 29 10:45:47 2009 CDT #
Lotus says:
What happens if you short a bank stock and it goes bankrupt and stops trading? What happens to your position?
Lotus Sun Mar 29 10:49:37 2009 CDT #
AShaw says:
cover at a couple cents a share?
enough fantasy though, banks are no longer allowed to BK right? any ones small enough to be allowed to fail probably are not available to short anyway.
Parent Post
AShaw Sun Mar 29 11:01:33 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Br'er Dawg says:
...Ohhh puuuleze Br'er Euro! Don' go throwin' us poor 'merikins in that there briar patch of isolationism! Puuuuleze! ...
~~~~~~~~~~
Well, you’ll see what "enthusiastic" support he will get. Hihi.
Werner Sun Mar 29 10:52:03 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'Don' go throwin' us poor 'merikins in that there briar patch of isolationism!'
If only - the real tale is why America has abandoned isolationism so completely that about its only undisputed world beating asset is its military, stationed on, over, and under the surface of this globe. And the day the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is no longer controlling the world's most critical chokepoint for exported oil is the day that one can start to talk about American isolationism in realistic terms - and not a day before.
Though I will grant that if the U.S. Sixth Fleet and the U.S. Seventh Fleet might compensate adequately if Fifth Fleet were no longer Persian Gulf based - but if any two of three are recalled or no longer available, then Americans can start talking about becoming isolationist.
It's that mirror image picture from a news magazine a few years ago - Americans see Uncle Sam burdened by the weight of the world on its shoulders, while the rest of the world sees Uncle Sam sitting on the globe, puffing a comfortable cigar.
Though America does have the potential to become a bizarre beast - an isolationist empire, an oxymoron on its face, but still covering at least some aspects of the situation.
Parent Post
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:13:22 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Unfortunately, many small banks were overweight FRE/FNM stock.
That and exposure to FHLB, which has been lending very actively after the credit markets seized up. FHLB's biggest borrowers included Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, Citi, WaMu, BofA.
According to Moody's, FHLBs banks face substantial losses on their mortgage portfolios and at least 8 out of 12 FHLBs are undercapitalized. At least five FHLBs (I don't have a more recent estimate) stopped dividends and share repurchases, which hurt their member banks.
All of this is much less visible compared to troubles with Citi and BofA, but it is just as bad for the economy. With very little TARP money left and the government actions focused on saving "the biggest and the baddest" banks, it leaves the grassroot banking in neglect and in despair. Then again, smaller banks can only blame themselves for their sorry state - they should have invested in building their political muscle on the Hill (/sarcasm off)
CR - Can you please provide an update on what's happening with FHLB? There was a lot of concern three months ago, but it disappeared from the public attention. Thanks!
MrM Sun Mar 29 10:54:26 2009 CDT #
ZackAttack says:
Yeah, that needs to be task #1... pulling troops out of Europe and Asia and the Middle East.
ZackAttack Sun Mar 29 10:57:26 2009 CDT #
Maximus says:
For all those pundits that are waiting for it.... Interested in a study that goes back to 1960 to see if the "quarter end window dressing" is hype or real?
Also, updates on the g20 protests which COULD be far more important than any stock market action and a few other bests and worst on this weeks 4best4worst blog post
Best to all....
Maximus
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
Maximus Sun Mar 29 11:02:34 2009 CDT #
Simian says:
Sounds like we here in Georgia need to send some of our regulators to Washington to help out. Our regulators know what to look for.
Simian Sun Mar 29 11:02:42 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Not big enough not to fail.
Oops.
C
Counterpointer Sun Mar 29 11:02:59 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
With very little TARP money left and the government actions focused on saving "the biggest and the baddest" banks, it leaves the grassroot banking in neglect and in despair. - MrM
It almost makes one wonder if we are propping up the big zombies so they can scoop up the little zombies later... LOL
Doc at the Radar Station Sun Mar 29 11:03:03 2009 CDT #
ha, ha, werner says:
If not for our part after WWII, Germans would still be eating dirt in a pile of rubble.
ha, ha, werner Sun Mar 29 11:04:09 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
ZackAttack says:
... pulling troops out of Europe and Asia and the Middle East...
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hooray! Finaly !
Or do you really think that these american troops in Europe will actually defend Europe ?
ROTFLMAO.
Ami go home !
Werner Sun Mar 29 11:04:12 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'Ami go home !'
Um, Werner, the German owned company that employs me doesn't want me to go at this point - seems like what I do involves one of the dwindling numbers of profitable revenue sources we have. Which cannot be said for some of our customers - it is very ugly out there for some of the automotive related suppliers - textiles, for example.
And in reality - Americans and British have been leaving Germany for the last decade, their numbers dwindling over time, especially in those areas where the 'temporary' facilities have been closed for more than 15 years, like along the Rhine. The same applies to the French in Baden-Baden, the Canadians, etc.
But in Eastern Europe, especially in places like Hungary and Romania, there has been a growing number of American bases. Yet oddly, little is reported about these shifts, in part because anyone looking at map will rapidly discover that America forces stationed in such areas are much, much closer to various oil producing regions than compared to the Fulda Gap. Strategic flexibility is a much prized asset, even if the goal is left unstated.
Parent Post
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:25:21 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
During Kitten Yearly Convention of 2009 last month in NYC, some Euro kittens put that fucking annoying Clinton's cat called Socks in the blender and now we EUROS are calling the shots. HAHAHAHAA!
Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 11:05:36 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Like "Fantasy Football" is there Fantasy Banking? Maybe we could admire the bad boys of Banking! 8-)
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Sun Mar 29 11:09:53 2009 CDT #
2 cents says:
Minnesota isn't immune from trouble either. Last week, the Fed tightened the reins on 4 community banks, two of which had already received C & D orders. There are close to 30 banks in the state that bear watching. I fully expected to see at least one bank on the BFF list last Friday.
Like a river overflowing its banks, the damage just keeps spreading.
2 cents Sun Mar 29 11:10:20 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
CR - Time to do a little spring cleaning in these posts, no?
Outsider Sun Mar 29 11:12:53 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Werner - ever considered that there's a core Euro national interest in preventing the source of most of your countries' refined heroin from being produced at base?
Sheesh. More will die in Europe unless the campaign works in Afghanistan.
C
Counterpointer Sun Mar 29 11:13:13 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I am looking for a game, like "Monopoly," but born out of the current crash.
reptillian Sun Mar 29 11:14:14 2009 CDT #
S says:
ZackAttack says:
... pulling troops out of Europe and Asia and the Middle East...
_______________________________________________________________________
sure as Russia is launching an arctic force, IRan is going nuclear and North Korea is launchin a nuke. Us retreat is tantamount to dollar capitulation. World pays economic rent for a reason.
S Sun Mar 29 11:14:25 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
Grand Theft Banking is so much better than Auto.
Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 11:15:00 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Mean Flurry Kitten
+1
Grand Theft Banking. Love it.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Sun Mar 29 11:16:56 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Instead of buying houses and hotels, players could make loans for them ... if you happened to get overextended and draw a bailout card, you win a prize.
reptillian Sun Mar 29 11:17:31 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
ha, ha, werner says:
..."If not for our part after WWII, Germans would still be eating dirt in a pile of rubble...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That’s what you did after WWI (Wilson abolishing the monarchy and allowing socialism/communism to flourish). You know what this brought on and you payed the price by having to intervene (and die) again in WWII . Was a shrewed idea of the Americans ! So, after WWII, you learned your lesson . The Marshall Plan was not an act of benevolence against Germany but rather an act to content/pacify Germany so you would not need to intervene (and die) a third time ! (learn the full history.)
Werner Sun Mar 29 11:18:25 2009 CDT #
Mel says:
Banks should have to display their status similar to restaurants showing their cleanliness ratings.
Mel Sun Mar 29 11:19:29 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
Instead of buying houses and hotels, players could make loans for them ... if you happened to get overextended and draw a bailout card, you win a prize.
Perhaps players could also bid on "Get out of Jail Free" cards from the bank...
Doc at the Radar Station Sun Mar 29 11:21:17 2009 CDT #
Mel says:
The new game could be called "RI$K"
Mel Sun Mar 29 11:26:16 2009 CDT #
Flaminia says:
OMG, I agree with Rob Dawg!
Werner, can you let go of your weird anti-American thing? For at least the past two decades Germany has profited from force-feeding the American consumer goose with grossly overpriced "luxury" automobiles which, in turn, allowed the Germans to do their spectacular job of rebuilding the former DDR and enjoying a wasteful (by EU standards) lifestyle. I am making no excuses for the undisciplined American consumer and government but the Germans have walked hand-in-hand in partnership on this very unsustainable path. We all have our own responsibility here.
Flaminia Sun Mar 29 11:27:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Just saw this on another forum...Hilarious...It's a pie chart that shows C's assets...
http://i178.photobucket.com/albums/w257/0021fan/Citi-pie_1.jpg
Comrade Kristina Sun Mar 29 11:29:39 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Comrade Kristina - that's good. Even funnier is their off balance sheet holdings as described in a July 14 2008 article on Bloomie. Goog it. Just astonishing. I know the answer to the question how do get to $1.1T in toxic assets is: "well, you have to start from zero", but this sh!tpile is just amazing.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Sun Mar 29 11:37:07 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"But the cost of allowing their bank to fail equals the resourses available to close at least 10 small troubled community banks."
.....there are many banks across this nation that are really in need of being closed.
Black Star Ranch Sun Mar 29 11:30:55 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
How Well Does Diversification Work?
CRbot Sun Mar 29 11:32:56 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
Well, you’ll see what "enthusiastic" support he will get. Hihi.
Werner: when you say "hihi" does that means omething?
Is it a laugh? (if so, in the US we would write "hehe" or "haha" and not "hihi")
Hihi doesn't mean anything, unless you want it to mean "hello Hello"
it makes me think of something that Hello Kitty would say in a cute little girl Japanese voice, even though I don't know if Hello Kitty talks!
it's not a German word, oder?
Yearning to Learn Sun Mar 29 11:34:21 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Pass GO and collect a Banker Bonus of $2MM even if you bankupt the company!
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Sun Mar 29 11:39:24 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Flaminia says:
...but the Germans have walked hand-in-hand in partnership on this very unsustainable path. We all have our own responsibility here....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have to dissapoint you ! German consumers are nowhere near as indebted as american consumers. Germany consistently earned a "trade surplus"(i.e. lived beyond their means) whereas Americans consistently (in the last one and a half decade) had a trade deficit (i.e. lived beyond their means). How anyone can say we "have walked hand-in-hand " just escapes me. These plain and simple facts are well known and contradict your insincere whisful thinking / propaganda / lying .
You are responsible for this mess ! Face it !
Werner Sun Mar 29 11:41:23 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Quite a good piece from Asia Times Online - if it comes to pass, neither the US nor Europe will be calling the shots:
Liquid war: Welcome to Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar
What happens on the immense battlefield for the control of Eurasia will provide the ultimate plot line in the tumultuous rush towards a new, polycentric world order, also known as the New Great Game.
Our good ol' friend the nonsensical "global war on terror", which the Pentagon has slyly rebranded "the Long War", sports a far more important, if half-hidden, twin - a global energy war. I like to think of it as the Liquid War, because its bloodstream is the pipelines that crisscross the potential imperial battlefields of the planet. Put another way, if its crucial embattled frontier these days is the Caspian Basin, the whole of Eurasia is its chessboard. Think of it, geographically, as Pipelineistan.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KC26Ag01.html
energyecon Sun Mar 29 11:41:55 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
The Marshall Plan was not an act of benevolence against Germany but rather an act to content/pacify Germany so you would not need to intervene (and die) a third time ! (learn the full history.) - Werner
Thanks for that Werner. You done more to support the counter argument than any number of treatises or pictures of the US Military Cemeteries in Normandy or Hamm could ever hope to accomplish.
Br\'er Dawg Sun Mar 29 11:42:09 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Geithner Says Banks Need to Take Risks to End Slump
“To get out of this [recession] we need banks to take a chance on businesses, to take risks again,” Geithner said today on the ABC News program “This Week. . .
“If we get to that point [where we run out of TARP funds], we’ll go to the Congress and make the strongest case possible and help them understand why this will be cheaper over the long run to move aggressively,” Geithner said. Increases in housing purchases and small business lending indicate government aid is reviving markets, he said.
Basel Too Sun Mar 29 11:43:07 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
"Germans have walked hand-in-hand in partnership on this very unsustainable path. We all have our own responsibility here."
You are now in Phase 3. Bargaining.
German's biggest trading partner is France, USA is second. And intra-eurozone trading is much more important for Germans than USA.
Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 11:43:11 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
jm,
yes - hopefully the 'makeup' in reduced sunspot activity is not all in one go with CME...
energyecon Sun Mar 29 11:44:03 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Flaminia says:
...but the Germans have walked hand-in-hand in partnership on this very unsustainable path. We all have our own responsibility here....
----------------------
P.S. forgot to mention that we are not monetizing our debt and stoking inflation !
You do !
Werner Sun Mar 29 11:46:26 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Br'er Dawg says:
Thanks for that Werner. You done more to support the counter argument than any number of treatises or pictures of the US Military Cemeteries in Normandy or Hamm could ever hope to accomplish.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I don’t understand your comment. I support which counter argument ? Please elaborate.
Werner Sun Mar 29 11:51:53 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Sheesh. More will die in Europe unless the campaign works in Afghanistan.
Because our war on drugs close to home is working so well. If you think Afghanistan is about drug interdiction, you need to do more research.
Markar Sun Mar 29 12:01:08 2009 CDT #
ATM card, $19 etc... says:
“To get out of this [recession] we need banks to take a chance on businesses, to take risks again,” Geithner said today on the ABC News program “This Week. . .
First, relax the tax code so that it is easier to use IRA funds to start a business. Much easier to come up with 25% down for SBA purposes when you can access your retirement account penalty-free.
Second, encourage banks that actually have a chance of surviving to make these business loans. Sounds like these local banks with their concentrated C&D portfolios could use a little help... plus they probably have pretty strong connections to the business communty in their area.
Business owner #1: "Where ya from, banker?"
Banker: "Citicorp. Manhattan"
Business owner # 2: "New York City?!?!?"
Business owner #1: "Git a rope..."
ATM card, $19 etc... Sun Mar 29 12:03:05 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
I don’t understand your comment. I support which counter argument ? Please elaborate. - Werner
Of course you don't understand. You have a warped sense of history and a pollyannish view of the future. With the US in isolation, Europe demilitarized and the dollar vanquished United Germany will be in an interesting position when the bear rolls over the hill from the east in Natural Gas powered tanks.
Oh, and the vaunted export power? In Jan-Feb '08 BMW sold 2219 "7 series" autos in North America. Care to guess for '09? 33. Yes, thirty-three. Ask China about the two edged sword of an export economy.
Br\'er Dawg Sun Mar 29 12:03:13 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
"You have a warped sense of history and a pollyannish view of the future. With the US in isolation, Europe demilitarized and the dollar vanquished United Germany will be in an interesting position when the bear rolls over the hill from the east in Natural Gas powered tanks. "
FYI, France has bigger military budget than Russia, Germany as big as Russia. And we do still in parts of Europe have to go through ARMY as obligatory service to the fucking STATE. During cold war ALL MEN in Western Europe (and Eastern too, the enemy) had to go either military or civil service. Tens of MILLIONS OF MEN.
So maybe you fucking American weekend soldier idiot go back to the hills and masturbate with your dear M16 even more.
You fuckers almost caused WWIII because Soviets dared to put few missiles in Cuba. Well, it was SITUATION AS USUAL in EUROPE, YOU IGNORANT SHITHEAD.
Parent Post
Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 12:26:55 2009 CDT #
ac says:
<tbody>
“And yet we have Turbo Tax Timmy offering the following pearl of wisdom:
</tbody>
Was Timmy born a cripple or did he get that way via some horrible accident?
ac Sun Mar 29 12:03:38 2009 CDT #
Jes says:
What's worse: one mega-store failing, or 100 mom&pop shops employing the same number of people?
How many community banks equals one citibank?
Jes Sun Mar 29 12:06:06 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Sorry to pull the global warming animal noises forward a thread, but the response is tangential.
My point in posting the information from the insurance industry is that the issue is real and that “the coolists” are IMnsHO flat earthers. The "warmist" insurance industry wouldn’t waste resources on this issue if it was not expecting to see a return on its investment.
Is this the same insurance industry that was just insuring MBS? And that, uhh, AIG thing, with the CDS with effectively no capital reserve against wrong-way?
I think it's time to get past the whole idea that efficient markets means a commercial entity doing somethng can be advanced in an argument as supportive of its truth. No, the other guy is not doing his due diligence, ask Bernie Madoff's counterparties about that assumption.
It seems as if the assertion, "Business decisions are often made based on irrational choices, incorrect information and perverse incentives" is more true. I think this is an important point and passing this into the general understanding of the economic trade and our society in general can be classified as "learning something from our mistakes".
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Sun Mar 29 12:06:32 2009 CDT #
rich says:
The Obama Administration is trying to string out, defer, delay bank failures that are obvious. The reason is that it wants to wait at least six months before going back to Congress to ask for $500 billion or more to recapitalize FDIC.
They want all this anti-banker sentiment to die down first. But they are just stringing out the misery.
That's why so few bank failures have been announced the last few weeks. Zombie banks like Corus just continue to float around until the political climate improves.
rich Sun Mar 29 12:07:13 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
O/T :
(http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN2754209520090327)
NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - Proposals for creating a new global reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar are gathering momentum but need further examination, Germany's development minister said on Friday.
---------
Juhhuuu !
Werner Sun Mar 29 12:10:18 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
What's worse: one mega-store failing, or 100 mom&pop shops employing the same number of people?
It is better to let the mega-bank fail, so that the "too big to fail" problem won't arise again
MrM Sun Mar 29 12:14:59 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
"They want all this anti-banker sentiment to die down first. But they are just stringing out the misery."
They won't be able to hold it together long enough for that to happen. Unemployment, foreclosures, 401K losses accelerating will only add fuel to the anger. O is betting his entire presidency on Geithner/Summers fixing this--a very bad bet if you ask me
Markar Sun Mar 29 12:15:11 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
I think we need to make deleveraging more profitable.
How about a tax credit toward principal for people who pay off lots of their credit card, auto, or home loans? Reduce your principal by $1000 and get ~10-20% of that back on your taxes.
Not a fully formed idea, but it seems like this would reduce leverage, provide a good long term return, reduce default rates, etc
Some Investor Guy Sun Mar 29 12:22:04 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Byz, I responded to yours at end of last thread.
Was mulling an answer to insurance/coolist, but I see you have and far better.
burnside Sun Mar 29 12:23:09 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"First, relax the tax code so that it is easier to use IRA funds to start a business. Much easier to come up with 25% down for SBA purposes when you can access your retirement account penalty-free."
In Feb., SBA loans became 90% guaranteed. Shouldn't require more than 10%, if that. They also waive the fees that used to be charged in exchange for the guarantee.
reptillian Sun Mar 29 12:23:12 2009 CDT #
Speed Racer says:
Werner, you make some excellent points about the motives of the Marshall plan. Twice during the first half of the century Americans, Brits, Canadians, Russia, etc. were dragged into disastrous wars in Europe due to Germanys bad behavior.
Many people like to keep pointing out how we won WWII. In my opinion the thing we and the above mentioned nations did was to stay in Europe after WWII and keep the peace. Europe in general and Germany in particular have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they have no ability to run their own affairs.
Speed Racer Sun Mar 29 12:26:17 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Small business is also a greater source of hiring when (if) things turn around. Also, it aften enriches the life of the community.
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 12:29:52 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Newsweek Cover Story on Krugman
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/newsweek-cover-story-on-krugman.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
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It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
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I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Sun Mar 29 12:33:30 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Br'er Dawg says:
...Of course you don't understand. You have a warped sense of history and a pollyannish view of the future....
~~~~~~~~~~
I still don’t understand. What is the "counter argument " I supposedly support according to you post ?
...With the US in isolation, Europe demilitarized and the dollar vanquished United Germany will be in an interesting position when the bear rolls over the hill from the east in Natural Gas powered tanks.
~~~~~~~~~~
Huh, now I am really scared !
In Jan-Feb '08 BMW sold 2219 "7 series" autos in North America. Care to guess for '09? 33.
~~~~~~~~~~
Did you really pay or just give us an IOU ?? I hear Americans have NO savings, lots of debt and the credit-spigot needs to be turned on again. So, you really have money to pay ???
Or is it "they give us goods and we give them paper" ? . Thanks, but no thanks for such "customers" (the Chinese are finding out the hard way the worthlessness of their american paper, no ?) . Real customers do pay !
Ask China about the two edged sword of an export economy.
~~~~~~~~~~
Why ask China ? Germany too is an export driven economy too . But thank God without such a huge amount of useless american trash (err... Meant Treasuries, hihi).
Werner Sun Mar 29 12:34:14 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'Europe demilitarized and the dollar vanquished United Germany will be in an interesting position when the bear rolls over the hill from the east in Natural Gas powered tanks'
Fascinating image - you realize that Russia, unlike the Soviet Union (which, hard as it is for some to grasp, hasn't existed for a good decade and a half), is having a hard time holding on to some of its previous Soviet era strengths? And one of the reasons the Soviets folded is that a $100,000 missile levers up the investment scale even better than an IB - a main battle tank costs considerably more than that. Not to mention the pay off of one missile to one aircraft.
Time to wake up - it is 2009, not 1989, though with the way NATO is 'celebrating' its birthday, you might almost think it was 1989 again - the police and shutdown city of Baden-Baden would certainly give one that impression that East Germany was the winner of the Cold War - several of my neighbors have been forced to enjoy a vacation, since no one is allowed in or out of Baden-Baden to even work without proving they live there, have a reason to be there, and otherwise following whatever the friendly gun toting security forces 'suggest.'
What a farce - but then, that pretty much describes any major international institution with heavy American influence.
Parent Post
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:53:59 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
From Barron's
The misleading figures cut across a wide swath of the economy, encompassing housing, manufacturing, employment -- you name it. The leading agent of deception, unintentional or otherwise, has been that old sly villain, seasonal adjustment. As it turns out, the seasons don't need adjustment as much as the adjustors need seasoning.
As Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg (who, incidentally, is planning to do a bit of adjusting himself and moving back to his native Canada; our loss, Canada's gain) points out in a recent commentary, the official keepers of the books have been unusually aggressive in constructing seasonal adjustments for February's economic data.
To illustrate, the seasonal adjustment for new-home sales was the strongest since 1982; for durable-goods orders, the strongest since they were first released in 1992; the retail-sales figures for February were flat (or, as David says, flattering) after such adjustment, but unadjusted fell 3%, the biggest drop on record. He also notes dryly that the 40,000 raw non-seasonally adjusted housing-start total for February "all of a sudden becomes a headline-adjusted annual rate figure of 583,000."
Which makes David think that come the inevitably sharp downward revisions of such distorted data, first-quarter real GDP is likely to suffer a 7.2% drop. Which, together with the 6.3% skid in the fourth quarter of 2008, would be the worst back-to-back contraction in the economy in 50 years.
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:35:07 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Monopoly has a loan aspect--look at the back of the cards.
Neither I or anybody I ever knew ever used that provision, because
it was too hard to keep track of. But the bail-out card would be interesting.
Wait--come to think of it we did try it a couple of times, but really by the time you started doing that, you had the felt the kiss of death in the game already.
But requiring a loan to buy, perhaps the 3rd property? that would be interesting.
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 12:35:17 2009 CDT #
ATM card, $19 etc... says:
"In Feb., SBA loans became 90% guaranteed. Shouldn't require more than 10%, if that. They also waive the fees that used to be charged in exchange for the guarantee."
Oh. :-[
ATM card, $19 etc... Sun Mar 29 12:36:06 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Kitten meet Jas. Jas, Kitten.
Merrrrowwww!
Lawyerliz Sun Mar 29 12:36:34 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Re : Mean Flurry Kitten
Good points !
Werner Sun Mar 29 12:38:12 2009 CDT #
Speed Racer says:
Almost caused WWIII. Sorry, that doesn't count. The score hasn't changed.
Cause of world wars:
Europe 2
Everyone else 0
Speed Racer Sun Mar 29 12:38:29 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
" And unlike the "too big to fail" banks, these community banks will just be seized by the FDIC.
... and then rolled up into one of the "too big to fail' banks, thus setting the stage for greater and greater disaster.
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:40:27 2009 CDT #
I Heart CRbot says:
What's worse: one mega-store failing, or 100 mom&pop shops employing the same number of people?
The Mom & Pops failing is far worse. They create local wealth. The revenues from locally-owned businesses have been shown to circulate in the community seven times. Mega-stores are neither locally owned, nor do the profits circulate in the community or even in the U.S. Ownership is concentrated in the wealthy, who are far removed from the community and whose dominating concern is profit.
I Heart CRbot Sun Mar 29 12:40:51 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
Jas: Why Indians have this red point on their foreheads? YOU ARE HERE?
Mean Flurry Kitten Sun Mar 29 12:41:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Werner and Kitty,
The Eurozone will be sucking on Russian pipe after the US leaves...erm, correct that, will be sucking on the Russian pipe even harder.
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:43:07 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
You fuckers almost caused WWIII because Soviets dared to put few missiles in Cuba. Well, it was SITUATION AS USUAL in EUROPE, YOU IGNORANT SHITHEAD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't even go there, one sided view of things (whether you think so or not)
We ended the official draft but for the last 30 years, economics has forced many into service (see how it works)
Pull out, if the multi nationals want to do business-let them subsidize it. We've given enough blood, enough money. We need to see to our wounded.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know....
\\Radio Free Europe
Europe Hit By Downgrades As Deficits Loom
January 21, 2009
By Kathleen Moore
PRAGUE -- With recession here or looming, governments across Europe have reacted in much the same way -- by throwing money at it. They've rolled out massive spending plans, including stimulus packages intended to cushion their economies, and bailouts for the banks.
http://www.rferl.org/content/Europe_Hit_By_Downgrades_As_Deficits_Balloon/1372932.html
All this at a time of lower budget revenues thanks to the downturn.
(cont.)
Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:43:33 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Yearning to Learn says:
...Werner: when you say "hihi" does that means omething?
~~~~~~~~
It’s the german version of your "hehe" or "haha".
Just a slight hint to Americans that there are other people on this planet too!
Werner Sun Mar 29 12:46:49 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
The best thing I like about this blog is that dopes are very eager to reveal themselves. They can't help thmeselves!
We have a BADD (Born-and-bred American Dope Department) informer in our midst.
reptillian Sun Mar 29 12:49:22 2009 CDT #
special drawing rights says:
Hey, what time does the cafeteria open?
special drawing rights Sun Mar 29 12:50:21 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Anonymous says:
... The Eurozone will be sucking on Russian pipe after the US leaves...erm, correct that, will be sucking on the Russian pipe even harder...
~~~~~~~~~~
Ja, ja, and Deutsche Bank will go down the tube ...etc.
God bless the american blowhards.
Werner Sun Mar 29 12:58:59 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
gun toting security
-------------------
Gun toting? That's primitive-welcome to "Don't Tase me bro'" Land...
Don't forget our prisons are "for profit" enterprises over here
Magical Thinking Sun Mar 29 13:00:06 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
r_t_o says,
Fascinating image - you realize that Russia, unlike the Soviet Union (which, hard as it is for some to grasp, hasn't existed for a good decade and a half), is having a hard time holding on to some of its previous Soviet era strengths?
It really is a pleasure when you stick to what you know. Good stuff. Yes, the USSR empire is no more but when i made my comments the thing in my mind was "adventurism is the refuge of desperate despots." now if i had said that about Bush you and several others would be falling all over yourselves to agree but when I suggest that Putin might do the same?
I also agree that the degree to which the police state has infiltrated the western democracies from within is frightening. The difference is i don't see it as being an infection from America. I'm sure the Basques at least would agree.
Br\'er Dawg Sun Mar 29 13:15:37 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
police state=disgusting, repugnant, not an American ( better watch out my Canadian brothers ) tradition, most certainly other regions have histories of police states....
----------------
I would most certainly aggree Dawg
Magical Thinking Sun Mar 29 13:32:36 2009 CDT #
Flaminia says:
Sorry, I was gone for breakfast during most of this comment thread and did not see the follow-up to my previous comment. Werner, are you willfully failing to understand what I wrote?
To be an export-based economy, someone must be buying. The Germans profited by the overspending of the Americans on the unjustifiably expensive German automobiles. YOU built your economy on an unsustainable model, i.e., the overspending of another country. That's what I meant. I thought it was obvious but I apologize if it was not.
Flaminia Sun Mar 29 13:39:30 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Listen we need SMART regulation-not monopoly. Choices-as many as possible (moving target is harder to hit). I've lived in different areas of the country, I understand what you are trying to say. Monopoly is bothering me. You have to give and take-you want this -what is the result of that?
California, you want to run environmental/liberal social policies, you want high property value, you want cheap labor, excellent schools and noone wants higher taxes...
Florida (my great grandparents bought land AFTER the last run up in the 1920's-schmucks) The nicest thing about the Gulf side was that it WASN'T like the Atlantic side-overbuilt.
You overbuilt the whole thing. Greed/ your natural environments cannot support the numbers of people-you need energy options-LOTS of them, all differents kinds, as many as possible without having this or that decided for you -choices!
Do not be fooled by outward appearances or historical ideas that someone who wears blue jeans has some socially conscience agenda, you're dreaming.
We actually be at peak police state.
Magical Thinking Sun Mar 29 14:10:45 2009 CDT #
Bottom Line says:
Geez...maybe they are bailing them all out
Bottom Line Sun Mar 29 16:27:46 2009 CDT #
Bottom Line says:
If 10,000 banks had been bailed out during the depression how many would have failed?
Bottom Line Sun Mar 29 16:30:14 2009 CDT #
END