Comments for "Auto Sales: Ray of Sunshine?"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/1135539196159404967
CRbot Wed Apr 1 19:52:18 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Yes, many rays of sunshin. In fact some blinding beams on light on the road to recovery.
But this old git called Martin Wolff reckons otherwise and is calling currency crash:
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-should-obama-apologize-to-g20-for-america-2009-4
Why is it that old gits can't get with our fabulous future? I mean, it's secured, right?
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 19:54:04 2009 CDT #
Tailspin says:
The ROW hate our guts, with good reason. USA is the current empire under the sun yet what a nuerotic one we are. Instead of tribute and bended knees we insist they loan us our money back. I call US a weasel empire. Instead of tirbute like any self respecting Roman our leader's cronies get no bid contracts and CDS/CDO renumeration. Very clever but how will it ultimately play our. Got popcorn?
Parent Post
Tailspin Wed Apr 1 22:20:31 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Sometimes this site makes me feel like Dracula. Sun... light... rays... cutting through skin... NOOO! I'm melting into a puddle of ashes!!! Ahem. Carry on.
briwerk Wed Apr 1 19:56:09 2009 CDT #
Mad Mullah says:
When government stops trying to solve every problem, and stops trying to be everything to everyone in this country, that will be a sunny day.
Mad Mullah Wed Apr 1 19:56:24 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"When government stops trying to solve every problem, and stops trying to be everything to everyone in this country, that will be a sunny day."
Boy, are you in for a dark disappointment. I doubt elected officals are too keen on being precieved as irrelavant.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 19:59:38 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
admirable courage CR
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:57:18 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
anyone know the impact of SA at this point?
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 19:58:56 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
Bob Carter....also known as "Baghdad Bob Carter". woo hooo....rimshot.
the man from nantucket Wed Apr 1 20:00:33 2009 CDT #
longwaver says:
False bottom... Unemployment is just ramping up and the currency inflation monster is waiting in the wings...
It will cost them $25K to import the parts for a Chevy Aveo that they can sell for $15K
longwaver Wed Apr 1 20:00:36 2009 CDT #
comrade mike says:
Although seasonally adjusted, it seems tax returns were filed earlier than usual which may lead to a temporary increase in auto sales.
Parent Post
comrade mike Wed Apr 1 21:12:44 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
It is either a ray of sunshine or a mirage.. I am betting that it is the latter.
Lucifer Wed Apr 1 20:03:03 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Wait, there's a financial crisis?
Nemo Wed Apr 1 20:03:06 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
market may have a car-gasm over it tomorrow though, like it did with the housing sales numbers.
the man from nantucket Wed Apr 1 20:03:09 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
What else are they going to say?
EHP - I would have thought you'd like that Moody's report. Lots of information there.
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 20:03:23 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Look at the incentives, guarantees, and everything else. What has happened is that they are buying sales at any cost. This is pulling consumption forward and actually augurs badly for future sales.
We are in the middle and not near to the bottom yet. Wages are declining as more and more people are being given wage cuts of 5, 10, and even 15%. Also, waves of layoff notices are still going out.
The crisis will not be over until the foolish optimism that still characterizes most Americans is over. The time to go massively short again is coming. We need to clean out all the buy and holders and pension funds before this is over.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 20:04:02 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Look at the incentives, guarantees, and everything else. What has happened is that they are buying sales at any cost. This is pulling consumption forward and actually augurs badly for future sales."
Yep, just clearing the docks. 0% will not be around long if inflation, and rates pop up.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 20:14:13 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
i actually know someone that purchased a car for "patriotic" reasons. sentimental old fool, but he does have money to burn.
Basel Too Wed Apr 1 20:04:08 2009 CDT #
cd says:
CR-have to disagree...the only thing that will lead to pickup is if they toss out pti and dti in approval process..Too many underwater owners will be met by sales closer with can you come up with 3k....I think a lot of that uptick is fleet right now pushed up hard by govt...california sales tax wont help either...
no light seen here in my circle..
cd Wed Apr 1 20:05:49 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Today's Counterpointer posts are brought to you by short positions in a diversified portfolio: consonants F, vowels E.
Otherwise we're long grammar. Short abbreviations.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 20:06:06 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Historically, when a country prints money and spends it, the results are horrific.
But we will be OK because we are doing it in the opposite order.
Nemo Wed Apr 1 20:07:43 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
"When government stops trying to solve every problem, and stops trying to be everything to everyone in this country, that will be a sunny day."
---------------------------
spent the morning watching "The Presidents" on the History Channel with the sick kid.
What came out of those episodes re the middle of the 19th / late 19th centuries was that those chief execs who were concerned with being liked and trying to be all things really sucked.
kinda like Franklin Pierce and Millard Fillmore.
homedad43 Wed Apr 1 20:09:03 2009 CDT #
Publius says:
Just 28 days in Feb and 31 in March. To maintain the same daily sales rate, we should be above 10MM and we are not there. I do not see any rays of sunshine in this number.
Publius Wed Apr 1 20:10:09 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Nemo:
There's supposed to be an order?
Wow.
homedad43 Wed Apr 1 20:10:26 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Feb/Mar ratio looks like 28/31 to me.
debtinator Wed Apr 1 20:12:38 2009 CDT #
Punditry says:
As the mythbusters proved, it's Possible to put a high shine on a turd. that's your brightening!
http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbusters-polishing-a-turd.html
Punditry Wed Apr 1 20:13:38 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
Don't worry. Pretty soon the federal government will be making auto loans via Treasury borrowing.
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 20:14:00 2009 CDT #
ac says:
With unemployment surging, home prices plummeting, and defaults in other areas rising one would think the credit mayhem is far from over.
Until the credit situation stabilizes, hopes for economic recovery may be somewhat premature.
ac Wed Apr 1 20:14:46 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Until the credit situation stabilizes"
Shoule we REALLY be buying everything on credit? Granted houses and perhaps autos, I can see. But the HELOC ATM should be closed for a long time.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 20:17:05 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Auto Sales: Ray of Sunshine?
-------------------------------
Ha, Delirium tremens<!--StartFragment --> .
Werner Wed Apr 1 20:16:52 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Bond Girl,
The Moody's report does interest me, I saved it for later reading after glimpsing at a few charts (hence the We're #1 ... : ( .)
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 20:17:19 2009 CDT #
Hazard says:
Now might be a good time to buy a new 2008. Those suckers have got to be sold somehow or other. Maybe 50% off list price?
Same could be said for the 2009s toward the end of the year.
Hazard Wed Apr 1 20:17:27 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Any sales increase were based on extream incentives that can't last without bankrupting the firm.........but, they're already bankrupt.
These sales are not firm...but a sand pile.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 20:18:34 2009 CDT #
I Like Ike says:
Promoting the myth that car sales will increase "gradually" once again avoids the reality that many households do not have the money. Loans will only perpetuate the problem of the consumer society. It is over people...sooner or later, the party is over.
I Like Ike Wed Apr 1 20:22:13 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..................Insolvency Proceedings Initiated for Qimonda.............................
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/memory/display/20090401121404_Insolvency_Proceedings_Initiated_for_Qimonda_Memory_Production_Stopped.html
..................upgrade your memory quick......semi market will bounce rather quickly.....
Jay D. Wed Apr 1 20:26:18 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Hang on, you folks are making me think that the Moody's thing is worth reading.
Really?
I'm open to this but I want a credible commenterer to suggest this.
C
PS I can't stand dealing with ratings agencies and I think they should be collectively drop-kicked. It's just me.
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 20:26:29 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
So, anyone see "Real Time," where O' pooh, poohs, the internet and legalization of cannabis, the #1 question in the online poll for his "virtual" town hall? Dude is out of touch, or in thrall of TPTB.
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 20:26:37 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
EHP-
Yeah, you're on to it.
The problem with the portfoliio managers isn't that they're naughty (except for that jaunt at the Waldorf). It's that they're incompetent.
Pity their beneficiaries.
No intermediary stands before me.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 20:27:16 2009 CDT #
Government Motors says:
If you lose your job, we will make your payments.
If you have a warranty problem, TARP will pay (mfg. pays 10% into the fund; TARP pays 115% (
the intention is to fund the warranty at 125% of historical warranty costs)).
Get a pimp's ride before it's too late.
Government Motors Wed Apr 1 20:27:20 2009 CDT #
Supernova says:
Ray of Sunshine?
nuf said....stand clear
Supernova Wed Apr 1 20:29:03 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
If I don't work and I buy a car will they pay the first 6 months payments? :-$
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Apr 1 20:30:00 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Countepointer's link on state deficits is telling - in the last recession, the deficits peaked in 2004 (recession ran Mar-Nov 2001) - and ran 2002-2005.
We are just getting into the sh!t with the state budget troubles...I suspect the muni story is similar.
energyecon Wed Apr 1 20:30:55 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Hey, nice to see some of the old EST crowd showing up.
energyecon - this is going to run and run, and bust into cities. Which leads my nicely to:
bondgirl - how ya going? The site looks good and you've got great material.
But BG - did you track the UK 40-year gilt fkup last week?! I was talking with a close friend at the IMF this morning and we couldn't conceive of why - when everyone is piling in short and even Germany if having 10-year bunds fail at market - why on earth would you go to market with a 40-year just after the central bank governor has said he doesn't rate the regime to pay its bills???
Incomprehensible.
Words fail.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 20:44:28 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Even if recovery starts, which company will hire in the US? The company i'm working for is looking to double employee count without increasing budget.
REBear Wed Apr 1 20:30:56 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The company i'm working for is looking to double employee count without increasing budget."
How does THAT work? Cut salaries by 50%?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 20:33:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
China wants to raise its annual production capacity to 500,000 hybrid or all-electric cars and buses by the end of 2011, from 2,100 last year, government officials and Chinese auto executives said. By comparison, CSM Worldwide, a consulting firm that does forecasts for automakers, predicts that Japan and South Korea together will be producing 1.1 million hybrid or all-electric light vehicles by then and North America will be making 267,000.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/02/business/global/02electric.html?_r=1&ref=business
Uh-Huh
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 20:30:59 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Way too much pollyannaish optimism around. This bear hasn't begun to reach bottom yet. It will bottom when "good" news is ignored, not jumped on.
Hal Wed Apr 1 20:31:58 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
GMAC must be the most evil, pernicious corporate entity since Hooker Chemical sold a toxic landfill site to build a school (anyone here remember the Love Canal?)
They've brought back financing for sub 620 fico scores, in a desperate attempt to unload GM inventory. Never mind the fact that in the face of 10% unemployment, most of these "sales" will end up defaulting and keeping the repo man very busy.
Please do not buy any GM products. This is beyond criminal negligence, it's an attempt to build an economic prison where the inmates are those of us who save and spend responsibly.
central_scrutinizer Wed Apr 1 20:33:06 2009 CDT #
Latka says:
Hmmm 31 posts and only 6 poster responses of denial (i.e. your wrong CR its not getting any better - dead cat bounce - knifecatchers ARRRGH)!
Not saying this IS a ray of sunshine, but at least more and more of your audience seems to accept that it COULD be. Good job CR...
Latka Wed Apr 1 20:33:36 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Latka - I think if you read between the lines a lot more posters are suggesting they don't necessarily share CR's stated views. Now, CR's stated views are a matter of record, but they are militantly neutral. The CR comment board isn't. Simple. There are some doomers around here but that's not CR editorial position.
At least that's the way it seems to me.
As long as CR provides a forum for the diversity, we'll get to see some interesting stuff. No more, no less.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 20:55:53 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
I actually find ratings reports somewhat useful. Every once in a while I find some dirt on a credit that I missed, but I think that is only because I have prop research with which to compare it.
This does not mean I would buy something based on what a rating agency said. Or sell something, for that matter.
Plus I read most stuff anyway.
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 20:33:43 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Plus I read most stuff anyway."
What about in a world of "mark to maturity?"
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 20:36:41 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
God, the tone of my last post was aggressive. Sorry 'bout that.
I'm getting a little "short of fuse" regarding the typical newbie MBA/CFA I run across at the conferences.
hong konger Wed Apr 1 20:35:50 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
Are we sure that the sales fluctuations aren't being influenced by new model introductions? Doesn't that happen somewhere around this time of year? If I was going to buy a car and I knew a new one was coming out in a couple months, I might be inclined to wait.
Hey, totally off-topic... Anyone following the corporate law industry via abovethelaw.com? Things are getting crazy. Pay cuts, delayed start dates, mass firings, and now a federal judge has certified a class for a lawsuit against a firm that folded up and fired everyone. They are claiming it violated the WARN act and they're going after all the law firms that hired former partners. Anyway, if anyone wants some rays of sunshine... take a look over there.
Chicago Dude Wed Apr 1 20:36:29 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"How does THAT work? Cut salaries by 50%?"
Lay offs and rehire the hungry at two for one price with out benefits.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Apr 1 20:37:41 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Lay offs and rehire the hungry at two for one price with out benefits."
Sounds expensive after paying severance and unemployment, for something that may just be accomplished by future inflation.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 20:39:49 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
energyecon -
Re: lag in timing on revenue problems and muni defaults
http://podcast.derivactiv.com/?display=MMP_Jim_Spiotto_Municipal_Defaults_Part_I
read transcript of podcast
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 20:38:26 2009 CDT #
MinniRenter says:
Nice spike in foreclosure listings today on the Twin Cities MLS. About 175% of a normal day.
MinniRenter Wed Apr 1 20:38:50 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
I'd like to add the ephermeral, "You know the type". Which, naturally, I was one of.
Bond Girl-
Does your prop data give you any local color?
hong konger Wed Apr 1 20:40:36 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
I have seen this done in the sky spy business in the 80's from a major corp. They did retirement buy outs to do it. Must add up some how.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Apr 1 20:42:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Recovery? Really? With one data point? December 2008 sales were higher than November 2008, weren't they? Before I call this a bottom I'm gonna need at least a full quarter of "sunshine" points.
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 20:44:24 2009 CDT #
Hutch says:
This could account for 80 of them.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090311/ap_on_re_us/missing_cars
Hutch Wed Apr 1 20:46:13 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Did we lose the bond dislocation thingy? I told everybody we were going to have one!
nova Wed Apr 1 20:53:58 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
It's too late. When even formerly bill-paying, tax-paying people are searching for ways to get their cut of TARP, it's too late.
reptillian Wed Apr 1 20:55:55 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
If it's not a bottom, we'll see one soon. Because soon, we get the Chrysler and/or GM liquidation sales! And do they ever have inventory to move! If the government actually back the warranties, I'll be getting a new car then.
Fair Economist Wed Apr 1 20:56:37 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
West Coast Open Thread
CRbot Wed Apr 1 20:57:29 2009 CDT #
alex black says:
Woo-hoo. An uptickin auto sales? Is it over? Is Winter on the run? C'mon folks, we've all seen The Producers, so sing along with me: "it's Springtime..... For Hitler.... And Germany!"
alex black Wed Apr 1 20:58:07 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
I can't really share anything from my day job.
Re: Gilt auction - thought this was interesting
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/01/54330/as-if-the-bank-of-england-wasnt-having-a-bad-enough-day/
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 20:58:21 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Over capacity? Check.
Over population? Check.
reptillian Wed Apr 1 20:58:50 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
I think this rally continues at least through tomorrow. Futures ticking up. Mark-to-market nonsense will give another push for a bit. Then reality hits again next week or the week after.
Mannwich Wed Apr 1 20:59:46 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
I don't really think they've thought the warranty thing through. Talk about something that can be abused.
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 21:00:39 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I see the warranty thing as just another cash distribution thing. This time for the "people" You know, small time fraud under 1M Something for unemployed real estate agents and mortgage brokers...
nova Wed Apr 1 21:03:27 2009 CDT #
Bailout Maniax says:
We're in your banks;
we're on your teevee screens.
You'll see us in your nightmares; you'll see us in your dreams.
We'll appear out of nowhere, 'cause we aint what we seem.
Bailout Maniax Wed Apr 1 21:04:50 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Actually, a phone bank, mass mailing, convert an empty dealership, buy some media time, sell the fear. There is no time like now to get your warranty work done. ReOil - where professionals get you the best gov rate on your oil change. First Federal tuneup
nova Wed Apr 1 21:06:25 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
It's only small-time until it applies to a lot of people. God, isn't that the lesson of this whole cursed experience?
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 21:06:42 2009 CDT #
alex black says:
"Hmmm, 31 posters here and only 6 posts of denial"
Latka, if you've found 6 of 31 posts in ANY commentary section at CR that are even ON TOPIC, you've set a record.
alex black Wed Apr 1 21:10:27 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
CR, is there a way to break down NEW car sales vs. USED car sales like you do with new HOME sales vs. existing home sales? The "total sales" figure in the graph may erroneously be interpreted as including NEW and USED cars.
Doc at the Radar Station Wed Apr 1 21:11:01 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[and continuing financial crisis]
The financial crisis isn't really with the banks - it's with the household sector. They are underwater and going south. The last thing they need is more credit/debt. It's actually a healthy thing for the lenders to be cutting them off.
I made an offer on an investment property. I got loan approval over the phone in 10 minutes, so there's no shortage of credit, and at very attractive rates.
bearly Wed Apr 1 21:12:15 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Doc,
From http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Selected=N
Try these 3 NIPA tables
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/NIPA_Underlying/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=59&FirstYear=2009&LastYear=2009&Freq=Month
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=260&Freq=Qtr&FirstYear=1964&LastYear=1966
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=261&Freq=Qtr&FirstYear=2006&LastYear=2008
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 21:17:53 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
and just forget that middle link which is for a short series from the 1960s °~°
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 21:20:45 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
EHP, as expected NEW (sales) is declining faster than USED. That does match the housing NEW versus EXISTING as far as relative decline. The good news is that the inventory of used vehicles is getting worked off more quickly. The hope beign here that fresh additions to new inventory are more attractive than what has been offered previously.
Parent Post
Doc at the Radar Station Wed Apr 1 21:37:54 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Fair Economist:
I'm thinking the same thing about the car liquidation sales. Hadn't planned to purchase anything this year and was going to purchase used next year but my gut is that it would be good to get a cutrate deal on something new and make it last.
I honestly think that this is the scenario that Benjamin Franklin warned about with the populace thinking that they could hit the government for everything.
could see a pop in sales this next three months but then everything just coming to a screeching halt. In which case, mebbe I still better hold onto the money.
homedad43 Wed Apr 1 21:19:26 2009 CDT #
Komrade 250K says:
Is better at Gorki dealership. Up from 1 to 2.
Komrade 250K Wed Apr 1 21:20:49 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Bond Girl - can't comment from day job? I hear you. Neither can I. Precipitate code of conduct violation.
But I can broadband the issues and everything else for comment.
And I can post frivolous music clips, wahay!:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKYALsp-sIg
Whatever. This community is part of the answer. Shame we can't talk freely.
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 21:21:51 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
A ray of sunshine?
I think counterpointer's link to blog @ 8:54 p.m. is a rain cloud in the darkening sky. The words hostile and tense are not strong enough to describe some of the comments being made on that blog.
I'm not feeling the love....
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 21:22:22 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Anony - it's now not just young hotheads talking about this stuff. And that, as a young hothead, worries me.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 21:27:32 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Anyone want to play pin the tail on Friday's jobs numbers?
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 21:24:38 2009 CDT #
from a buick 6 says:
robert johnson - terraplane blues
etc., etc., etc,
all the great songs about cars
all the cars I've had thru the years - locked in time and space
oh well - nevermind
from a buick 6 Wed Apr 1 21:25:39 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
Theoretically, we are going to know a lot more about this in April, assuming they make any information on the stress tests public.
Given that it is now in the hands of the Federal Reserve, who knows?
I bought a new car in February. The sales people were elated, not only to make a sale but to have human contact. It was depressing.
Bond Girl Wed Apr 1 21:26:18 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Hmmm, 31 posters here and only 6 posts of denial"
Latka, if you've found 6 of 31 posts in ANY commentary section at CR that are even ON TOPIC, you've set a record.
Initially, I think, people strive to be on topic. But there comes that lull, like the one when the market may change direction, when someone posts off-topic. If others go off-topic, then the free-for-all ensues.
reptillian Wed Apr 1 21:26:29 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
Bond Girl-
At the risk of overstating my interest, how close can your prop data get to the locals?
Not the data, the local "interests"?
Does it figure into your pricing?
Or, are you just working off the public stream and that's it?
hong konger Wed Apr 1 21:27:04 2009 CDT #
ANSFA says:
Two things against this "ray of sunshine".
1. Forward sales.
2. Used car inventory.
Sorry folks, keep your umbrella because it will be raining for quite sometime yet. Learning how to swim would not hurt either, in case current "rainy" season causes more "financial floods". :-D
Be happy though, we all know it could be worse. Good luck to all!
ANSFA Wed Apr 1 21:27:59 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?em
Boats are finding a bottom ... the ocean floor!
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Wed Apr 1 21:28:49 2009 CDT #
cd says:
warranties don't cover maintenance...warranties can be voided by not abiding to maintenance schedules at authorized dealerships...read the fine print..
central scrutinizer..GMAC going back into subprime lending is a disaster...they have so much bad paper already, this will be cherry on top...
I'm sick and tired of credit mooches thinking they deserve a new car...buy a used one and build your credit MOOCH!
cd Wed Apr 1 21:28:58 2009 CDT #
Bailout Maniax says:
All is well, we can assure you.
Go out and shop. Proceed confidently.
Bailout Maniax Wed Apr 1 21:29:55 2009 CDT #
MS says:
What gave futures a boner?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
Thank god I went to cash weeks ago....this is getting effing ridiculous...
Ciao
MS
MS Wed Apr 1 21:32:04 2009 CDT #
OkieLawyer says:
<i>MS:
What gave futures a boner?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html </i>
I was asking the same thing over at Ritholtz's site. Asian markets are up 4%. What news came out?
Parent Post
OkieLawyer Wed Apr 1 23:28:56 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
God Save the Queen
The Fascist regime...
At least the Obama's had the sophistication not to bow to inbreeding.
I have a pair of carbon composite ski poles. Made in America, perfect balance, bendable (saves your shoulder in the bumps), but strong enough torsionally to go through a fat banker's stomach, with a lifetime guarantee. Paid cash, $60. That's $4/year, getting cheaper every season.
No dividends left for the vampires. Planned obsolescence of corporate profits.
I would pay a premium for a Goode electric car.
1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 21:32:21 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Didn't you hear, tomorrow begins mark to "significant judgment".
Judgment is coming, for sure/
1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 21:33:58 2009 CDT #
Bailout Maniax says:
Strive to do all things well.
When doomed, be excellently doomed.
Is there any other way?
Bailout Maniax Wed Apr 1 21:35:12 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-waterbottles31-2009mar31,0,531322.story
hilarious story out of LA government
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 21:35:28 2009 CDT #
MS says:
EHP-
+750k is my guess.....either way as I said earlier this week the market will rise in spite of the worsening of the job situation. Our country became Mexico earlier this month.
Ciao
MS
MS Wed Apr 1 21:36:06 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Geithner: Firing bank CEOs an option
"Of course. Of course." But we can only hope.
reptillian Wed Apr 1 21:37:56 2009 CDT #
locust says:
For what it's worth...I just bought a new pick up. I was looking for something used: fleet vehicle or single owner, reliable, 4 cyl 2wd, auto, with 80 thousand miles, for under $5,000. Didn't care about age or appearance.
Not much out there. Lots of stuff with high miles or if the mileage was low, over $5,000. So I went and test drove some new pickups and was offered 2.9% financing. And that's how I bought a new pick up. I probably wouldn't have bought the new truck if it hadn't been for the cheap financing.
locust Wed Apr 1 21:38:02 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
"Anyone want to play pin the tail on Friday's jobs numbers?"
Yes -925 to -960
Barley Wed Apr 1 21:38:33 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Considering the birth/death adjustments and constant revisions, I'm actually fairly comfortable that ADP is in the ballpark.
Call it 725K, +/- 10K.
homedad43 Wed Apr 1 21:41:50 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
futures are screaming. ok, only up 110, another ray of sunshine until it becomes night :)
Basel Too Wed Apr 1 21:42:37 2009 CDT #
MS says:
I really wish this were a joke......
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601069&sid=a8MoX0q3BHyY&refer=fedwatch
Unfortunately it's not...
The last sentence is effing priceless
When you commit a crime you're not supposed to give the details upfront.....
Ciao
MS
MS Wed Apr 1 21:42:44 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
I'm willing to open the door to the possibility of a temporary stabilization in new housing starts and car sales. I know of a woman who was just laid off who a few weeks afterwards, leased a new luxury car. She is very underwater on her house. But, I'm sure getting a new car makes her feel better ... for now. I think there are a lot of people will make one last stand and try to keep living in the old world. Many, many people want to fight this transition. Even though I'm a gloom and doomer, I'm constantly mocked and berated for it. Even though, I've been right. Generally, most people get sick of hearing about it and want things to just go back to the way they were. So maybe between the massive flood of money pumped into the economy on both the fiscal and printing side, plus a desire by the masses to swim against the current for a little while longer ... to enjoy one last consumer high, before he/she hits their alcoholic bottom, we see a stabilization or uptick in sales for now.
But I don't see how it's sustainable. We are going to be stuck with structural unemployment in this country. Let's say, conservatively we peak at 10.5-11% unemployment ... what the hell is going to bring it down to a "full employment" level? Forward aggregate demand has been vaporized for the next 5-10 years in this country. There is massive over capacity in the labor force ... and a pixie stick rush of stimulus spending and Fed jobs aren't going to fix that.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Wed Apr 1 21:43:24 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Hey, Misean, you still playing at home? I'll be boozing up at the Beekman in New York, Sunday/Monday April 26-27. The bar is on the 26th Floor, I'm the almost 7 foot high dude. Goatie. In black.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8CzFVm1Yio
Gotta make some of these UN meetings interesting.
Perhaps we can put the meetings in the mercy seat?
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 21:43:25 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Anyone want to play pin the tail on Friday's jobs numbers?"
I am not sure what ADP reports. They do a lot of payrolls, so are in a position to know something; however, they do not do all payrolls: not government, not companies that do their own; not companies that have an ADP competitor doing their payrolls. Nevertheless, this morning's report out of ADP was ominous, assuming that what they see is characteristic of what other payrollers see.
reptillian Wed Apr 1 21:44:08 2009 CDT #
Brian says:
CR: I will have to respectfully disagree with you. The graph goes back only so far as Jan of 2006, which was the peak of the real estate bubble. While its obvious that there is an uptick from the recent lows, I have to question how meaningful the increase really is. Afterall, MEW was being withdrawn at an excelerated pace for years, which would most certainly add to an increase in auto sales. I would think the sales graph would have to go back further and we would also have to look at the avg yearly sales pace in teh prebubble era. I think then we can make a meaningful estimate of auto sales. This could be yet another blip in the radar.
Brian Wed Apr 1 21:44:51 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Does an inflated stock market give Obama a bit more credibility at the G20? Perhaps there is more to this rally than meets the eye (beyond just window dressing)? National security interests, for example?
How would it look for Obama to be making requests and negotiating while the US/global markets were melting down?
Our govie doesn't have the power to move markets, does it? Repeat after me, there is no PPT...
Gavshire Hathaway Wed Apr 1 21:45:01 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Our govie doesn't have the power to move markets, does it?"
It sure would be convienint for our economy or mart to show some spark, rather than apper irrelavent. If not oughtright direct buying, encouraging banks that stand to benifit long term via TARP or som other program, to pick up some equities might be encouraged.
Of course that would mean that post G20 we would get back to some reality.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 21:57:09 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Oof, spelling falls off a cliff half-way through the bottle...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 21:58:14 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Sure, right before BK, you always do better being fired than quitting. You can even reluctantly take a cut to your severance, to make it look good. Then a guy like Liddy has to take the heat.
1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 21:45:08 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
I'm going to say -729k nonfarm payroll, with -15k revision
8.6% headline unemployment
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 21:45:11 2009 CDT #
MS says:
"futures are screaming"
which tells me that the market will get a boner to the tune of +200-300 pts.
More space created for the "soft landing" I guess.
Ciao
MS
MS Wed Apr 1 21:45:22 2009 CDT #
Comrade Dazed and Amused says:
I've made this point before, but I will repeat it. I think that CR is fundamentaly correct in his view that auto sales will bottom soon. Why? The scrap rate for vehicles has been around 5.5% for the past few years. With a vehicle fleet of 240 million, that means that about 13 million vehicles per year are crashed, junked or otherwise decomissioned. Add 4 million teenagers turning 18, and subtract 2.5 million deaths to get a population demand of about 1,5 million. Put it all together and you have a natural demand for about 14.5 million vehicles per year.
Comrade Dazed and Amused Wed Apr 1 21:45:42 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/1000286/fewer-miles-driven-means-less-fuel-taxes-collected
"Put it all together and you have a natural demand for about 14.5 million vehicles per year."
Unless the "flleet" lasts longer because people move closer to work, work close to home, or lose thier jobs entirely. How many 2 or 3 car families are leaving the SUV in the garage and using something more econmical.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 21:52:52 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Comrade Dazed and Amused
Have you looked at the impact of:
(a) recycling revenue from the steel, platinum, copper in a car
(b) fewer accidents when fewer cars are on the same road
(c) how many 18 year olds will buy a car at this time, certainly not the 100% rate you imply
I think you vastly underestimate the number of households with 4 cars, that only use 2, and could get by with 1. In my opinion that scrapping was in part due to good recycling prices and surplus autos, and should decline without something like a government program or automakers/dealers scrapping their own used inventory to push new models off the lot.
12mn is closer to natural demand in my opinion, but even at your 14.5mn there would be a substantial unused shadow inventory built up over the last decade
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 21:57:42 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
More importantly, scrappage doesn't create present demand if there are a fleet larger than natural demand. That's why this is such a big problem, that shadow inventory is so large many automakers will/are starv/ing before it is worked off
240mn autos. 154mn jobs. 108mn households
The shift towards urban centres, and the subsequent transportation modal share that goes towards non-personal autos (subways, bicycles, taxis). Retired people drive so little they buy cars much less frequently. etc.
Now that housing prices are falling and people are no longer pushed into outlying burbs, or if they lose their jobs altogether -- much less driving (although that hasn't shown up yet to my knowledge)
The fleet is larger than it needs to be, and automakers have little margin for error in their forecasts.
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 22:07:42 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
I guess the 100mn+ autos not tied to the primary transportation of an employed individual can be easily replaced at a time like this. There's tapping the retirement savings. Or dipping into the corporate contingency budget. And.... uhhh
However, I do expect sales to rise once the govt + corps figure out how to equitably sell off their new inventory. Which means selling them for less than planned, and destroying a some of future demand. So this doesn't end until fewer new cars are directed towards the US (both domestic plants and imports need to be cut, in part so they can raise prices and turn a profit)
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 22:15:18 2009 CDT #
Giezcubed says:
Conjure...Conjure...Where art thou?
Giezcubed Wed Apr 1 21:50:54 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
MS - futures are screanng
josh!
Barley Wed Apr 1 21:52:21 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
Let's say you are a CFO and its late 2011. Things have finally "stabilized" and your new business plan for the post bubble economy seems to be getting some traction. You start to get requests from department heads for approval to start hiring. I would imagine the CFO will laugh them out of the office.
Who's gonna endanger a fragile turnaround in profit margins by adding new bodies ... unless, as Dryfly points out, they are critical to the product - making it or selling it. There were / are so many jobs (mine in marketing included) that aren't really necessary in a brutal new business environment.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Wed Apr 1 21:56:43 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
People may be mis-overestimating deman for new cars. With a lot of uncertain people out there with the ability to make the car last for another year -- and another, if necessary -- it may be awhile before demand picks up. One reason the automakers plans were considered inadequate is that their demand projections, base on past demand, were overly optimistic. You only have to look at Cuba to see how a determined people can make a car last; even without parts, they improvise.
reptillian Wed Apr 1 21:58:03 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
CROCUS!
bearly Wed Apr 1 21:59:37 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
FWIW, I think the BIG ray of shiny will be the parts manufacturers and supply network. Less new car sales equate to increased repair on the older POS. As "high a quality" as the American vehicle has been of late (past 30+years), there will be much repair work required and parts sold. Independent repair shops will have a resurgence and parts outlets will empty shelves of older stock.
Black Star Ranch Wed Apr 1 22:00:44 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"there will be much repair work required and parts sold. Independent repair shops will have a resurgence and parts outlets will empty shelves of older stock."
Time to apply at Firestone? They tend to suck BTW.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 22:06:25 2009 CDT #
yagij says:
Testing new sekret stuff. Please ignore. :O
yagij Wed Apr 1 22:01:57 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Comrade Dazed:
I wouldn't worry about the historic scrap rate if I were you.
consider how many families will do without or make the old ones continue to work. Believe that I heard last week that places like Auto Zone were doing fairly well - been there myself and in those smaller spaces, there's some life unlike Kmart, etc.
Peter Lynch once wrote that he realized the auto bottom was reached in the early 80s when he came across data that showed the average age of the American family car to be X years greater than what was the historic mean age. That was years.
We're still a ways from any auto bottom.
homedad43 Wed Apr 1 22:02:16 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
A little extra incentive for banks to buy equities....if they participate we'll buy some of your treasuries at inflated prices, and suspend M2M.
That would be a pretty big carrot. But Obama isn't colluding with the bankers, right? That meeting last week was, uh, just a friendly discussion....
Gavshire Hathaway Wed Apr 1 22:05:46 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
Ray of Sunshine? Break out the sun screen! Now there's a topical statement for you.
Put it all together and you have a natural demand for about 14.5 million vehicles per year.
woohoo! Too bad we can only afford half of that,..
sdtfs Wed Apr 1 22:07:53 2009 CDT #
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CRbot Wed Apr 1 22:10:43 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
My foreclosure sale is at the end of this month. I sure hope it goes forward.
Guest Wed Apr 1 22:10:54 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
CR should sponsor a contest: how old is your car? how many miles on it? how much longer can you keep it?
reptillian Wed Apr 1 22:11:11 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Retired people drive so little they buy cars much less frequently. etc.
------------------------------------
And while they won't be large numbers, bunch of older guys will want to donate their vehicles to the "kids" when they give up driving.
My mother just offered her car in about a year when she's done with it, but I'm not keen on driving a 20 y/o Oldfartsmobile.
homedad43 Wed Apr 1 22:13:16 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
GM, like many multi-nationals, is going down. How long until we hear of problems with Boeing, IBM, Honeywell, etc., etc.?
reptillian Wed Apr 1 22:13:17 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
If anyone comes across Misean, here's the message:
Beekman Hotel, in New York, Sunday/Monday April 26-27. The bar is on the 26th Floor, I'm the almost 7 foot high dude. In black. I've got some meetings to fk about with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWZoESAq72Q
But you get used to that.
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 22:14:06 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
I'll play. 2003 Nissan Maxima. 85,000 miles. Plan on keeping it for 100,000 more miles. Will buy next car with cash, hopefully in 7-9 years.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Wed Apr 1 22:15:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
2 Ford Rangers. 1 100K sits in the parking lot, runs just fine, was going to give it to the son, but since being layed-off might sell it. One bought in July, 7k miles, gets about 5mi/week employment status change.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Apr 1 22:19:10 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Until they make those friendly meetings public, I will assume the worst.
When my job was to try to settle cases before trial, many people told me to talk to one side privately, then the other. But my boss the judge said almost never do it. He was right.
1 currency now [yogi] Wed Apr 1 22:16:37 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
homedad43
Exactly, autos are fungible. If there is room left on the odometer, someone can use it. Which is why one must consider the increased longevity of autos since the 1980s when estimating shadow inventory -- we have no nearby baseline fleet size to rely on. Auto loan securitization helped increase sales at a time of increased durability, the books must be reconciled.
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Apr 1 22:19:33 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[ Put it all together and you have a natural demand for about 14.5 million vehicles per year]
There's quite a gap between demand (desire) and capacity to purchase. I'm sure there's no shortage of demand in Cuba either. 12% UE rate might have a little dampening effect on sales. We could get a little dead cat bounce but real sustained demand can't happen without a jobs recovery, unless we start getting cars droppped from helicopters.
bearly Wed Apr 1 22:21:09 2009 CDT #
Anak says:
1995 Merc E220, 38,000 miles, been driving it eight years and runs fine at less than 4,000 miles/year. If daughter gives up ballet lessons, even less. No need for a car in the big city. They're all "recreational vehicles", or just status symbols. For me it's just a place to listen to music.
Anak Wed Apr 1 22:26:56 2009 CDT #
lawn grass says:
Blinded by the light!
Gas has been down a few months. Car budget looking a little better. Some jalopies are breaking or being wrecked. Is credit a little easier to get than a few months ago?
What is GM's ad budget?, they have a lot of ads.
I would not make much of the light.
lawn grass Wed Apr 1 22:32:19 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Aww, no one's playing my Ctpointer goes and gets all vengefull in New York meme for the end of the month. Shame.
Oh the fun we will have.
Heehee.
Suggestions on where the piano wire could be applied, all ideas welcome.
C
Counterpointer Wed Apr 1 22:34:27 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Can I Haz 0% Financing on a Bimmer?
Anonymous Wed Apr 1 22:43:02 2009 CDT #
Comrade Dazed and Amused says:
Blackhalo and EHP, you both make good points about my theory, both going back to how much more life can one get out of the old clunker (Cuba being the extreme example), and the shadow inventory.
Assuming that most of the shadow inventory was bought during the bubble 04 to 07, thats 4 years with the SAAR around 17 million, less my natural demand of 14.5million, meaning that there are 4 X 2.5 = 10 million vehicles in the shadow inventory. Selling those vehicles over the next 3 years would reduce demand for new vehicles by 3.3 million per year. Projected natural demand is 14.5 - 3.3 = 11.2 million per year, still above current SAAR.
The next question is how much longer can the clunker survive. I don't have a reliable, free data source to answer that question. I guess that theoretically sales could fall to 0, but only for a couple of years.
Regarding purchases by 18 year olds, I use the birth data for 1991. Really what I meant to say is that there are 4 million teenagers/young adults coming of age who will be buying their first car. Even if they buy a used car, then somewhere up the chain, a new vehicle will be sold to replace the used one.
I've been looking for detailed, current data on fleet age and distribution for older vehicles. Any ideas would be welcome.
Comrade Dazed and Amused Wed Apr 1 22:45:25 2009 CDT #
Joe says:
I love the doomer bias here. Went to Maggiano's tonight. Decent meal. The only thing that detracted was the 60 minute wait for a table. The wait used to be 70 minutes though, so I shouldn't complain. I guess the economy really IS tanking if it takes a full 10 minutes off the wait.
Joe Wed Apr 1 23:15:17 2009 CDT #
Clancy says:
Is there any good reason for there to be sunshine?
The sun is a mass of incandescent gas, a giant nuclear furnace. Where hydrogen is buit into helium at a temperature of millions of degrees.
There, see? A legitimate physical reason for the sun to be shining.
Unless there's an underlying cause for economic recovery that you can point to, why would a tiny uptick in auto sales make you feel better?
Clancy Wed Apr 1 23:19:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
CDA:
14.5 m cars a year was for a roaring economy. The economy is currently at -6% or more, so you have to substract from your 240m 6% or so. With retail and companies scalling back, I seriously doubt your 14m number is valid.
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 00:30:15 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
line1
line2
line3
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blank line above
briwerk Thu Apr 2 00:50:12 2009 CDT #
ONON says:
Cars are still WAY too expensive for ordinary workers despite how mass produced they are - new cars roll off the factory lines literally every second in countries all over the world, yet they still try to charge $20,000 for them when at least 1/3 of Americans are working for $12.00 an hour or less? ABSURD.
If only the car companies would release cars for $10,000 or less they would get some buyers....this is fully within thier ability to do but they refuse to because of GREED and too many middlemen in the industry.
ONON Thu Apr 2 01:57:57 2009 CDT #
mark says:
I wonder if they are making any money on the cars they are selling?
Classic, "We lose a thousand dollars on every we car we sell, but make it up for it on volume".
mark Thu Apr 2 03:59:18 2009 CDT #
END