Comments for Unemployment Claims: Continued Claims at 5.5 Million
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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CRbot Thu Mar 19 07:42:08 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Don't you ever sleep?
Oh, right, you're unemployed yourself. :-)
Nemo Thu Mar 19 07:42:32 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
We need an unemployment Czar.
Anonymous Thu Mar 19 07:43:12 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
Bernanke Inserts Gun In Mouth
CRbot Thu Mar 19 07:44:03 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Nice overnight rally in oil to $51.80 right now. Dollar getting smashed.
ac Thu Mar 19 07:44:52 2009 CDT #
ac says:
BTW, remember - even though it's a banana republic, it's your banana republic.
ac Thu Mar 19 07:45:58 2009 CDT #
Frank says:
> We need an unemployment Czar.
I think Bernanke has that covered.
Frank Thu Mar 19 07:46:08 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
CR,
Rather than adjusting for covered employees could you examine the possibility of adjusting by covered households? The rise in multiple earner households might make using just employees look overly optimistic.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 07:49:33 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
Nemo Thu Mar 19 07:50:45 2009 CDT #
Mr. Sparkle says:
Now that the Fed has gone full bore into QE and the dollar has responded by dropping a decent amount, oil and other materials are staging rallies. So we have inflation of basic materials but this unemployment report paints an extremely weak picture for any hopes that wage inflation will kick in. So what happens when you only have 1/2 of the inflation spiral going? This seems like it is walking a very fine line in the time line between killing demand because of price inflation and being stimulative because of the lower interest rates.
Or am I missing something major here?
Mr. Sparkle Thu Mar 19 07:52:16 2009 CDT #
hc says:
Mr Sparkle:
"Now that the Fed has gone full bore into QE and the dollar has responded by dropping a decent amount, oil and other materials are staging rallies. So we have inflation of basic materials but this unemployment report paints an extremely weak picture for any hopes that wage inflation will kick in. So what happens when you only have 1/2 of the inflation spiral going? This seems like it is walking a very fine line in the time line between killing demand because of price inflation and being stimulative because of the lower interest rates. "
Exactly. It's a dangerous game.
If the materials inflation puts a floor to deflation, then it's a good thing. If, on the other hand, it causes more hunkering down of consumers, thus destroying demand, it's a very bad thing.
I think the materials inflation you see now is just traders flocking to the "newest trade". Not as a result of real demand adjustment. (c'mon! 1 day turnaround?) Thus the end result when combined with final demand, may not be that there's any significant price increase, seeing that we have so much excess capacity in every industry sitting around.
Therefore, once the Trader's effect diminishes and price settles, the hope is that the 1/2 inflation thing could flip to the other half -- increased employment and income with only a small increase in materials. That's the govt's wet dream anyhow.
I personally saw Japanese do the "hunker down" thing. Things got way expensive price wise, even when their economies collapsed. So people ended up spending next to nothing. (Rahmen as a staple, reusing bathwater to wash cars, cutting up old clothes to use as cleaning rags, etc) So the danger is real.
Fortunately for us (or unfortunately? Depending on your political viewpoint), Americans are probably not going to do those things, so there's more chances of a floor than not.
The real question for the QE is: When will other countries start doing it? UK already started, now USA. I'm sure it's going global, without a doubt. When it does, will USD still be dropping relative to other currencies? It depends on who races to the bottom faster.
Govts are politicians are remarkably similar globally.
Oh by the way, unlike Japan, where capital can flight into other working economies, there's "escape" from this, esp if the entire globe does it together.
A 500K house would seem expensive now, because we have 60K average household income. A 50K house was ridiculous expensive back in 50s; as people only had 6K income. In future, when you have 1mil average income, need I say more?
Parent Post
hc Thu Mar 19 09:46:29 2009 CDT #
hc says:
The price / affordability equation is out of whack globally; so the govt will make in "in whack". The recent QE (if followed up by the global govt), pretty much means they will NOT let prices correct for the affordability equation to become balanced. Instead, they'll let inflation to make it balanced.
Surprise here is the biggest savers in the world -- China, is keeping quiet. They have the biggest stake and say in this, but they've kept quiet and essentially allowed this. If they've no qualms about this, then this will get rolling.
I guess if you looked at the pictures from recession
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html
you can see the extent of china's worker problem. So this may mean that they're willing to sacrifice their past work if it meant keeping people employed.
Parent Post
hc Thu Mar 19 09:46:45 2009 CDT #
hc says:
Correction: I meant:
...unlike Japan, where capital can flight into other working economies, there's *NO* "escape" from this, esp if the entire globe does it together. ..
Parent Post
hc Thu Mar 19 09:49:10 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
This will be good for revenue.
C
Counterpointer Thu Mar 19 07:52:43 2009 CDT #
nova says:
from Denninger. Who also recomends going to "liquid" reserves equal to 2 yrs, and plan on doing the bug out to the backwoods. We will all be goathearders soon.
The "death spiral" ends in the destruction of our monetary base - not due to hyperinflation but due to the inability to borrow any more funds, the reduction of the currency's base to a giant circle jerk, asset fire sales in a mad liquidation dash and ultimately, the collapse of both the monetary and political systems in the United States as tax revenues collapse to very close to zero.
nova Thu Mar 19 07:54:49 2009 CDT #
Jerry says:
Someone is starting to sound a little like a broken record, Mr "Another weak report" and "The worst since..."
Jerry Thu Mar 19 07:57:57 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I know why there is a shortage of ammo in So. Cal. Denninger is cornering the market.
nova Thu Mar 19 07:59:30 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"We may be a cheap $5 hooker in the bar, but of the hookers, we've got crabs and everyone else has AIDS!"
Nice touch as always from KD - very "to the point".
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 19 08:04:06 2009 CDT #
Simian says:
Does anyone know of a site with bias charts? Every month the prior month's figures get revised. It would be nice to adjust the current month's figures by the bias amount if there is a bias.
Simian Thu Mar 19 08:04:16 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
What would our Founding Fathers think?
CRbot Thu Mar 19 08:04:19 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Mr Sparkle - "wage inflation"?? You crack me up.
Not in a good way.
C
Counterpointer Thu Mar 19 08:05:19 2009 CDT #
Mr. Sparkle says:
Yeah, yeah... I've got a chart of the median household income over the years and the participation rate so I'm well aware.
Just wondering if I was missing something but looking at Dawg's response, not so much.
Parent Post
Mr. Sparkle Thu Mar 19 08:27:39 2009 CDT #
MW says:
Denninger, won't accept any other outcome other than deflationary spiral. I admire is energy and conviction, but he isn't smart enough to entertain anything close to an inflationary outcome.
He is so anti-gold that he can't bring himself to another conclusion. He totally rejects any argument that gold is money.
If that is true, why does every central bank in the world identify their gold holdings as "reserves."
Reserves for what?
When we are at Dow 4000 and Gold 4000 we can continue the debate.
MW Thu Mar 19 08:05:44 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Continuing weak employment reports, commodities rising, dollar crisis... Hoocoodanode?
I just imagine Barry & friends in a late night cram session modeled after a deadline squeeze for the Harvard Law Review having this same reaction. "But, Ben that's ultimately highly inflationary right?" "Of course but we'll worry about that when it comes, not now. First we have to crush deflation and restore liquidity." "But Timmay, where will we get the money? Won't printing it ultimately impair our ability to borrow?" "Of course but we'll worry about that when it comes, not now. First we have to stimulate and preserve the existing banks."
And the stock market band plays on.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 08:07:50 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
somewhat O/T :
FOKUS 2-Merkel gegen neue Konjunkturpakete
Reuters Deutschland - Vor 2 Stunden
Berlin, 19. Mär (Reuters) - Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel hat kurz vor dem EU-Gipfel in Brüssel vor einem internationalen Wettlauf um immer neue Konjunkturprogramme gewarnt. In einer Regierungserklärung im Bundestag äußerte sie sich am Donnerstag auch ...
(http://de.reuters.com/article/deEuroRpt/idDELJ43033120090319)
Translate it yourselfs.
As you see, no bailout-mania here !
No "American disease" . Hihi.
Werner Thu Mar 19 08:10:24 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
The fed should just buy oil and agriculture products directly on the open market. They'd get more inflation bang for their buck that way. Deflation wouldn't stand a chance. Neither would CONsumers.
Just think of the immediate increase in the velocity of money!
Angry Saver Thu Mar 19 08:11:14 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
America is an exporter of agricultural products. We produce over 10 billion bushels of corn and need to sell a lot of it for export.
Parent Post
traderwalt Thu Mar 19 08:59:54 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
well, I can't think of a better time than now for things to literally fall apart: spring, full pantry, the garden's started, the cow is producing, new calf, new and old chickens, lots of manure, sun and water.
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 19 08:13:17 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Werner, just in case you missed it.
When Germany has States that adopt Muslim law because the majority of the population is Muslim.
When Polen is the dominant military power.
When the average age of a German worker is 56.
I won't laugh. I will mourn the passing of what produced some of the great writing, arts, and music of Western Civilization.
Too Bad - Karma is a bitch
nova Thu Mar 19 08:14:13 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Werner:
"The motto is cooperation instead of foreclosure," said Merkel.
Looks like the "American Disease" is pandemic.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 08:14:22 2009 CDT #
JS123 says:
Th report always mentions the previous weeks revised figure. What was it revised from? Are the estimates always over or underestimating the numbers?
JS123 Thu Mar 19 08:14:46 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Short Guns and Ammo?
Well unemployment is lagging but I don't think that consumer spending is rebounding without a shot in the arm from Congress.
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 19 08:14:47 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Black Star Ranch says:Today, 6:13:17 AM PDT
well, I can't think of a better time than now for things to literally fall apart: spring, full pantry, the garden's started, the cow is producing, new calf, new and old chickens, lots of manure, sun and water.
Black Star Ranch greetings from your President...
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 08:15:26 2009 CDT #
nova says:
BSR,
I think you should post your address. Might get a lot of new "farm hands" in a couple months that way.
nova Thu Mar 19 08:17:28 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
from Denninger: "We may be a cheap $5 hooker in the bar, but of the hookers, we've got crabs and everyone else has AIDS!"
## Ahh! The man has an eloquent way with his prose. :*
volker the viking Thu Mar 19 08:18:19 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
By our actions yesterday have we killed the dollar as the reserve currency in the long run?
Guest Thu Mar 19 08:19:02 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
nova says:Today, 6:17:28 AM PDT
BSR,
I think you should post your address. Might get a lot of new "farm hands" in a couple months that way.
Under the government's new Section 8 Trillion housing program I think BSR can expect to be assigned several displaced Detroit families. After all, we are in this together.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 08:21:21 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Just wanted to repeat my thanks to Hank Roberts for the Galbraith link in the last thread. JKG could be the Dawg's cousin. A fine read.
burnside Thu Mar 19 08:21:32 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
BSR: there's a letter coming to you from the IRS as to the new taxable rate for "spring, full pantry, the garden's started, the cow is producing, new calf, new and old chickens, lots of manure, sun and water." 8-)
volker the viking Thu Mar 19 08:22:03 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Guest says:Today, 6:19:02 AM PDT
By our actions yesterday have we killed the dollar as the reserve currency in the long run?
If by "yesterday" you mean "since 1982" then the answer is yes.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 08:22:46 2009 CDT #
FED says:
looking at the data from back to feb I see: 2/26: 667 initial revised to 670; 3/5 639 initial to 645; 3/12 654 initial to 658; It does look like they are understating the initial numbers
FED Thu Mar 19 08:22:47 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
burnside - agree, I said about six months ago that it was time to put away the Friedman and get the Galbraith off the bookshelf.
I was being flippant. I just couldn't conceive we'd actually be here now. Bubble burst, there are consequences, there's pain. I just desperately hoped I was wrong.
I wasn't.
Sheeyit.
C
Counterpointer Thu Mar 19 08:25:11 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
LOL......there's plenty of sun, water and empty houses here. Feeding yourself isn't easy, but it's possible.
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 19 08:27:40 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
I was going to post something snarky, but eff it.
Now it's raining and I'm depressed.
homedad43 Thu Mar 19 08:28:17 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Werner, do they really call it a 'Gipfel'? Well, I suppose we say summit, sometimes.
Die Luft ist kühl und es dunkelt,
und ruhig fließt der Rhein;
der Gipfel des Berges funkelt
im Abendsonnenschein.
burnside Thu Mar 19 08:28:32 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Moody's may Downgrade $241 Billion in Prime Jumbo Securities
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CRbot Thu Mar 19 08:28:37 2009 CDT #
squeezed says:
Nova,
First of all its spelled "Poland". Secondly, bigots should not talk about "karma".
squeezed Thu Mar 19 08:28:55 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
WE have been saved...
Know three people just laid off. Sf bay area lagging rest of the country
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 19 08:29:34 2009 CDT #
nova says:
squeezed says:Today, 9:28:55 AM“Nova,
It's Polen in German as Werner knows
nova Thu Mar 19 08:31:36 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
burnside says:Today, 6:21:32 AM PDT
Just wanted to repeat my thanks to Hank Roberts for the Galbraith link in the last thread. JKG could be the Dawg's cousin. A fine read.
Compared to JKG? High praise indeed. IMO undeserved but thanks.
Yes, a very fine read. The ubiquicert"
On depth, CBO’s model is based on the postwar experience, and such models cannot predict outcomes more serious than anything already seen. If we are facing a downturn worse than 1982, our computers won’t tell us; we will be surprised.
Galbraith
We will be surprised.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 19 08:32:45 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Werner,
AIG Tarped Euro banks including some German banks.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 19 08:41:28 2009 CDT #
hc says:
Still climbing... Amazing chart.
Obviously not sustainable, it's going parabolic now. It may keep going for a few more quarters, but the "curve spiking" speed cannot be sustained.
Problem is, would there be any recovery afterward? (i.e. a spike down, like 1982) Or would we have a high "plateau" like 1992, 2002?
A high plateau does way more damage than a spike up and spike down. (Volume of space below the curve)
hc Thu Mar 19 08:41:41 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
America is an exporter of agricultural products.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
................US is most vicious exporter of GMO..........
Jay D. Thu Mar 19 09:10:48 2009 CDT #
TC says:
CR--An unemployment graph that goes up in downturns just seems wrong on so many levels...Perhaps you should post it upside-down....
TC Thu Mar 19 10:35:35 2009 CDT #
Barrett808 says:
That curve from Jan 2006 is looking increasingly like exponential growth, instead of, say, parabolic growth.
Barrett808 Thu Mar 19 11:55:27 2009 CDT #
END