Comments for Hamilton: "What will recovery look like?"

CRbot says:

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CRbot Sun Mar 15 17:43:06 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

I cede the responsibility of posting first.

Guest Sun Mar 15 17:43:17 2009 CDT #

lector says:

We are waiting on residential investment?
Could be a long wait.

lector Sun Mar 15 17:48:08 2009 CDT #

JOE SICKS PACK says:

CR, you can't discount the demographic issues.

There will be ZERO appetite for investment risk, and the generation which ordinarily would have maximum earnings for such investment (born 1970-1975)is the birthrate nadir of the entire century. This, as things like the donut bill entitlement comes online.

With this in mind, genuinely expecting a full 'recovery' - if that implies a return to the state of things circa 2004-2006 - is ridiculous at worst and intellectually lazy/dishonest at best.

JOE SICKS PACK Sun Mar 15 17:49:38 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/13294757/AIGs-Biggest-Counterparties

AIG Press release on counterparties. I guess that's them deflecting attention away from the bonus situation

one factoid: Goldman Sachs got $12.9bn of collateral postings and payments out of the $52bn in cash injections to AIGFP (... yes only $52bn has gone to their FP division, insurance companies are getting bruised all over, much bigger problems than CDS)

EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 17:49:46 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3717/picture6ahi.png
Table Summary of AIG's disclosure of payments to banks

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5358/picture7nbr.png
Chart Summary

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EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 18:23:43 2009 CDT #

Rufus the Doofus says:

But somebody else said the bonus uproar was created to distract from the counterparties!

Parent Post

Rufus the Doofus Sun Mar 15 18:46:38 2009 CDT #

sporkfed says:

Does anyone have data on debt to income ratios in relation to recovery time frames ?

sporkfed Sun Mar 15 17:56:43 2009 CDT #

Bob in MA says:

CR,

I think I'm missing something in the logic. The fact that the lagging indicators are just kicking in, does not mean ipso facto the leading indicators will improve soon. It just means that they are likely to improve first. Right?

So I miss Jan Hatzius's point. He seems to be implying that since the lagging indicators are deteriorating, the the leading indicators will begin to improve.

But that seems solipsistic.

There is obviously nothing about deteriorating non-residential investment deteriorating that will lead to an uptick in residential.

What am I missing?

Bob in MA Sun Mar 15 18:02:48 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I was just wondering the same thing. What are they smoking as GS that makes them think any part of the economy is getting better? *DONT_KNOW*

Parent Post

Anonymous Sun Mar 15 19:44:38 2009 CDT #

butter says:

I hope they show Bernanke slamming phones. I can't imagine it...

butter Sun Mar 15 18:04:15 2009 CDT #

The Lorax says:

JOE SICKS PACK says:
Today, 18:49:38 "There will be ZERO appetite for investment risk, and the generation which ordinarily would have maximum earnings for such investment (born 1970-1975)is the birthrate nadir of the entire century. This, as things like the donut bill entitlement comes online."

There are too many factors that make this unlike previous recessions. We have boomers who will clog up employment since they are now financially unable to retire; displacing younger workers and new employment. Gen-X is going to be risk averse for a while as they just watched their 401k's disappear, they watched their family home get foreclosed upon, and if they have money there is not a good yield to be found anywhere while the government is handing out their tax dollars to bankers.

The Lorax Sun Mar 15 18:06:11 2009 CDT #

Bob in MA says:

Sporkfed,

I posted this at BP earlier, it touches on your question:

Since I’m still short, I was looking in to the possibility of a sharp rebound as occurred in 1974.
I’ve been scanning the Fed’s Flow of Funds data and the differences between this period and that are amazing, the main factor being inflation averaging around 6-7% in the 1970’s.
For the period Dec 1972 to Dec 1974:
- The S&P 500 almost halved
- Yet household net worth INCREASED slightly (It fell 15% in 2008)
- Disposable personal income increased more than 20%
- Household debt was 65% of income (It’s currently 130%.)
- Non-financial corporate net worth INCREASED by 45%!
That last one is the real crux. The price of equities fell 45%, and the value of the companies increased 45%. The q ratio went from .89 to .33 (at the October bottom it was even lower.)
Equity prices are currently down 50%, but net worth is flat (and probably will fall next year as commercial real estate takes a big hit. The q ratio is .52 now.
Also, there was no financial crisis in 1974 and no collapse in world trade.
Basically, there is almost nothing similar between this period and 1974, except that both are severe bear markets.

Bob in MA Sun Mar 15 18:06:30 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

good stuff, I eat it up

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EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 18:33:41 2009 CDT #

ATM card and $19 in the bank says:

Re: "one factoid: Goldman Sachs got $12.9bn of collateral postings and payments out of the $52bn in cash injections to AIGFP"

I wonder what Goldman's balance sheet would have looked like if AIG hadn't gotten bailed out.

Maybe this is just my own pet prejudice, but I have to believe that the folks at Goldman Sachs work significantly harder and smarter than at AIG... my point being that there is no way AIG pulled something over on GS. Goldman Sachs had to have known that AIG was writing contracts it couldn't honor. If that's true, then clearly GS had a contingency plan -- soaking the taxpayer -- and that ought to be the real story out of AIG's counter-party revelation.

ATM card and $19 in the bank Sun Mar 15 18:08:10 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

GS in the summer of 2007 (?) had a high level meeting where they decided to hedge mortgage exposure; well that was from the comments of GS's CFO I believe. AIG was pretty much the only way for them do accomplish that

GS was a leading originator of mortgage securities, and among the most toxic. They also held on to the leftover unrated tranches. So it was a huge risk. HUGE

Paulson saving AIG saved GS without a doubt. For the sake of perspective compare Morgan Stanley's AIG payments to Goldman Sachs

Whether it is fair or not, I don't know. They pulled a Bill Gross, bet on a bailout, and won... well I hope it was a bet

Parent Post

EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 18:32:18 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

I could also add, that GS was the #1 beneficiary of US Govt bailout payments to AIGFP
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3717/picture6ahi.png

#1 GS $12.9bn
#2 Bank of America (+Merrill Lynch) $12bn
#3 Deutschebank $11.8bn (I'm shocked those conservative Germans played fast and loose, unmöglich I was told)
#4 Barclays $8.5bn
#5 Société Générale $7.8bn

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EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 18:40:50 2009 CDT #

calmo says:

Excellent analysis EHP...and now for the cruncher: What's <strike>love </strike> "fair" got to do with it?

Parent Post

calmo Sun Mar 15 19:42:35 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Maybe the AIG Bonus payments are a way to buy the silence of the individual players involved in this CDS scam.

Parent Post

Anonymous Sun Mar 15 19:05:10 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Can we please stop pretending that this depression will follow the normal post-WWII pattern?

Anonymous Sun Mar 15 18:10:47 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

i was under the impression that previous recessions were generally ended with the assumption of new debt. Not so likely this time... :'(

Basel Too Sun Mar 15 18:16:27 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

Bernanke's lips noticeably quiver several times in the 60 minutes interview... IMO.

Guest Sun Mar 15 18:18:53 2009 CDT #

bankerwannabe says:

Bob in MA, I had the very same thought. Just because lagging indicators are deteriorating, it doesn't mean that RI is improving.

I guess the implied assumption is that the duration of the RI downturn will be about the same this time as in other recessions. That is probably a bad assumption.

bankerwannabe Sun Mar 15 18:19:08 2009 CDT #

lector says:

"GS had a contingency plan -- soaking the taxpayer"

The Looting of America

lector Sun Mar 15 18:22:49 2009 CDT #

wally says:

You also need, I think, to consider that this is not a recession, but the bursting of a bubble. In terms of comparison to 'normal' we really haven't even entered a recession yet - we have simply come down off an enormous peak. When you normalize all those line to a zero point, one is starting on Mount Everest compared to the others, so the conclusions can be misleading. Big Picture has a set of graphs up that illustrate this (though that is not the point he is trying to make). The order of battle may be similar, but there are going to be some very different things along the way. First among those, I think, will be the length of the downturn.

wally Sun Mar 15 18:24:31 2009 CDT #

JimPortlandOR says:

I don't think this is likely to be a typical recovery: housing is battered but still more to come, PCE is unknown because ALT-A/CRE/unemployment are nowhere near bottom. "historical results do not predict future performance" when the base problem (unrecognized and not attended-to debt) hasn't been scratched yet. :(

JimPortlandOR Sun Mar 15 18:26:13 2009 CDT #

reptillian says:

One thing about the lead of residential investment in a recovery:
after the dotcom/9-11 bust, tech didn't really recover, in my opinion. Most of the new jobs were real estate related. Lately,
I have seen an interest in the tech. stocks, so I am curious about
whether the next recovery is going to be led by tech.

reptillian Sun Mar 15 18:31:15 2009 CDT #

Lawyerliz says:

Must go out and watch shuttle take off; supposed to be spectacular, as it will cross the terminator.

Lawyerliz Sun Mar 15 18:35:01 2009 CDT #

not a REAL `mmmrrcan says:

Gawd, I love graph stuff like this. I'm NOT talking about IF it's ABSOLUTLY true or not, but as a non-professional economist/investor/trader type this kind of info is really great to look at, as it's simple to digest AND you can make-up your own mind if you want to accept it or not.

Truely one of the great sites out here. I wonder what it will look like in 10 years.

not a REAL `mmmrrcan Sun Mar 15 18:36:01 2009 CDT #

butter says:

Bernanke said he sees green shoots, or maybe he meant green chutes

butter Sun Mar 15 18:39:00 2009 CDT #

Comrade De Chaos says:

"pulled bill gross card"

Bill Gross:
a) Gross briefly played blackjack professionally in Las Vegas, and has said that he applies many of his gambling methods for spreading risk and calculating odds to his investment decisions.
b) In September 2008, by holding large positions in agency backed mortgage bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Gross netted U.S. $1.7 billion after the Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for which he had lobbied.

source - Wiki.

opinion - SICK

Comrade De Chaos Sun Mar 15 18:39:31 2009 CDT #

sporkfed says:

Thnaks Bob in MA ! I just can't see a recovery until debt loads are greatly reduced.
Especially since most assets are way down in value, the wealth effect is in reverse.

sporkfed Sun Mar 15 18:43:56 2009 CDT #

JOE SICKS PACK says:

it is the normalization of attitudes towards credit itself (and expectations re: working, standard of living) which will be the most interesting and painful.

this depression is already turning everyone from an armchair donald trump into an armchair studs terkel

JOE SICKS PACK Sun Mar 15 18:47:47 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

Rufus the Doofus
AIG wants to keep its bonuses. So they announced bonuses on Saturday and released their counterparties on Sunday against the will of the US Treasury

They couldn't prevent a bonus disclosure, but they can control how it is received. Offence instead of Defence PR-style

EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 18:49:23 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

it is the normalization of attitudes towards credit . . . which will be the most interesting and painful.

One of the interesting things to watch is the de-stigmatization of bankruptcy. Last week, ran across many a middle class person that was setting up their finances for BK.

Basel Too Sun Mar 15 18:56:33 2009 CDT #

Mel says:

Eventually the feds will inflate the economy and that will be the tell for the turnaround. Until we see double digit inflation, everything gets worse.

Mel Sun Mar 15 18:58:23 2009 CDT #

albrt says:

I don't think CR is suggesting that other sectors going down will cause the housing sector to go up. He is just pointing out that the sector progression is similar to previous recessions.

This perspective is especially important because the Paulson-Geithner-Madoff crowd insisted for so long that the housing downturn was isolated or "contained." Then they insisted that the normal recessionary sector progression was evidence of unexpected "contagion" and the need for a "ring fence" or some such nonsense.

In other words, contrary to everything Jim Cramer and the rest of our leadership told us, this whole thing is pretty predictable starting no later than 2005, although the ultimate magnitude is still unknown.

albrt Sun Mar 15 18:58:26 2009 CDT #

sandito says:

CR,

First, thanks for everything you do.

Second, can we get the same graph for the Great Depression? That would be a key data point here. Is that possible?

Thanks again.

sandito Sun Mar 15 19:02:18 2009 CDT #

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:

As jg noted yesterday (and wally, jim & sporkfed note today) the "recovery" will be to something far different than anything in recent history.

I'm curious... What was the last time in American history when economic conditions could be considered truly "normal"? IOW, when were debt service, savings rate, employment, tax burdens, etc. at healthy, manageable levels -- absent some unusually "stimulating" factor(s)? Can we even find such a period in the last century???

Even if we can't find such a time, perhaps we could construct the conditions for one. [Unfortunately, the standard of living that represents is dropping quickly due to real future income expectations.] For the "average" American family, getting back to that "normal" state is the key. However long that takes, that's how long it'll take the overall economy, period.

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Sun Mar 15 19:05:24 2009 CDT #

poic.v20 says:

The current recession was caused by a global financial crisis and is resulting in the greatest contraction in global commerce in 80 years.

Given that the last recession in the US that bears any resemblance to the above conditions occurred during the 1930s I find it amazing that main-stream economists by and large refuse to even include the Depression as a study case when investigating conditions that indicated an end to this recession.

If you don't include the correct historical data points how in the world can you come to valid conclusions?

poic.v20 Sun Mar 15 19:07:38 2009 CDT #

central_scrutinizer says:

(Respectable) people seem to be breaking into two camps.

Camp one thinks that even though this is likely the worst recession since 1981 (possibly 1974), and any recovery is likely to be "U" shaped, there will be some sort of recovery. Hamilton appears to be firmly in this camp, as does CR.

In the other camp, we have Mish, Jim Kunstler and others who seem to be think that economists who think we'll return to the days of McMansions and "happy motoring" are dead wrong. Deep structural and demographic problems will force a dramatic reassessment; survival will become the primary focus.

Count me in the latter.

central_scrutinizer Sun Mar 15 19:13:17 2009 CDT #

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:

Given that the last recession in the US that bears any resemblance to the above conditions occurred during the 1930s I find it amazing that main-stream economists by and large refuse to even include the Depression as a study case when investigating conditions that indicated an end to this recession.

The Depression of the 30s was ended by world war. The slump from the Panic of 1873 lasted into the mid 1890s.

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Sun Mar 15 19:13:50 2009 CDT #

Fair Economist says:

The length of this recession will throw off the usual interpretations of "lagging" indicators. Non-residential investment lags, and normally recovery in PCE and residential investment replaces much of the drop. But it's going to be years before we get a substantial improvement in RI and, while it's not so predictable, PCE probably will stay low for a while. So this time we'll be exposed to all the damage from nonresidential investment dropping. We might get flat GDP by the end of the year, and possibly technically end the recession by of 0.5% growth rate or the like, but I don't expect a real end to the recession until either consumer debt is paid down or homebuilding resumes, and either is far off.

Fair Economist Sun Mar 15 19:16:40 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

Anyone have good insight into the German elections?

Merkel is losing votes to the right who are adamant about no bailouts for Opel
Merkel is losing votes to the left who are advocating state support for Opel

Probably a good chance Deutschebank needs its first sip at the well before the election too.

She has to make a choice. Grew up in East Germany, hates state control of industry and she knows that Germans hate the idea of giving money for nothing (and control is all the companies have to offer)

so is she going to head to the right and lose to the left in the election? that'd be my guess

as an outsider she doesn't strike me as artful when it comes to diplomacy, nor courageous when it comes to leadership

EvilHenryPaulson Sun Mar 15 19:17:40 2009 CDT #

Topher says:

�Here is the table I provided of a simplified temporal order for emerging from a recession. The table shows when each area typically starts to recovery relative to the end of the recession.�

CR, I think a big problem with your simplified temporal chart and statement is the word �typical�. I don�t believe this will be �typical� in many ways to past recoveries.

What I�m seeing is scary as hell and don�t believe it will turn out any where near as rosy as many think. These are uncharted waters with big sinkholes in them. Unlike anything in the past I hope I�m wrong.

Topher Sun Mar 15 19:19:16 2009 CDT #

Topher says:

“Here is the table I provided of a simplified temporal order for emerging from a recession. The table shows when each area typically starts to recovery relative to the end of the recession.”

CR, I think a big problem with your simplified temporal chart and statement is the word “typical”. I don’t believe this will be “typical” in many ways to past recoveries.

What I’m seeing is scary as hell and don’t believe it will turn out any where near as rosy as many think. These are uncharted waters with big sinkholes in them. Unlike anything in the past I hope I’m wrong.

Topher Sun Mar 15 19:22:42 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Yves:

Guest Post: Bailoutspotting (or The Search For The Great Financial Methadone Clinic)

CRbot Sun Mar 15 19:25:12 2009 CDT #

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:

central scrutinizer,

Although I'm still optimistic that we can rise Phoenix-like from the ashes -- albeit in a different form than most now know -- we're definitely going to burn first.

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Sun Mar 15 19:26:27 2009 CDT #

mp says:

The mp organization's on-site machine shop is now complete as of 20:00 EDT, March 15, 2009.

mp Sun Mar 15 19:26:56 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

New Thread: Bernanke: The End is Near
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CRbot Sun Mar 15 19:28:51 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

Auto and housing plus debt consumption equals the American economy and clearly subdivision buildups along with luxury car sales to the impaired financially is part of the economic past and not on the horizon anytime within the next 60 months. Economic types and their models look more and more like astrology, what's your sign CR?

Guest Sun Mar 15 19:41:30 2009 CDT #

RuffRednSore says:

"Can we please stop pretending that this depression will follow the normal post-WWII pattern?"

Exactly. Just what part of this financial crisis has gone as planned? Yet the same folks who never saw this coming are the same ones telling us how this will end.

I liked the previous comparison to 1974, and the only similarity was that there was a bear market. This crisis has no precedence.

RuffRednSore Sun Mar 15 19:41:38 2009 CDT #

RE says:

Merkel IMO is boxed in. The CDU cannot easily move to the right as it will lose the center. Aside of Bavaria (CSU), the FDP (closest to a libertarian party) has gained tremendously lately and has been the preferred coalition partner of the CDU since the Bundesrepublic was formed. But to understand the struggles of the CDU, one has to consider more than just a left/right political picture. The CDU (Christlich Demokratische Union), as its name implies, has traditionally appealed to the Christian and especially the Catholic voter. Merkel's recent "attacks" on the pope as well as other policy decision on fundamentalist initiatives have put off a lot of her core constituency and therefore made her vulnerable even within her own party.

The SPD is trying to recapture the middle and not give up too much on left as it really doesn't want to have to enter into a coalition government with the left party (Die Linke). It had a major erosion of support after the last election but lately has been able to reverse the downward trend.

With the economy getting clearly worse, despite the FDP's gains, a CDU/CSU and FDP coalition government is not a shoe in though clearly the most likely outcome.

RE Sun Mar 15 19:44:08 2009 CDT #

ATM card and $19 in the bank says:

"The mp organization's on-site machine shop is now complete"

Congratulations. I had the impression from prior comments that you were working on a significant project. Nothing like reaching the finish line.

ATM card and $19 in the bank Sun Mar 15 19:45:06 2009 CDT #

Mel says:

"AIG, GM and Who Is the Fool?
Peter Morici

Washington and the nation are enraged that AIG is paying millions in bonuses to retain financial wizards that sold insurance on mortgage backed securities with few assets to back up their promises.

AIG is telling us that it must pay those bonuses, because they are required by employment contracts necessary to retain its financial engineers.

Treasury Secretary Geithner has expressed outrage. Instead, he should be embarrassed.

When the Bush White House agreed to bail out General Motors and Chrysler, it required those companies to renegotiate their labor contracts—that’s right contracts—and they are doing just that to keep their federal largess.

The Obama Treasury, headed by Tim Geithner, is forcing the terms of that deal on the United Autoworkers.

Why did Secretaries Paulson and Geithner not require the same at AIG? Remember Geithner was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and a key player when financial giants like Citigroup and AIG were being bailed with the taxpayers’ cash. Those bailouts continue, with easy terms for the bankers and their contracts, on Geithner’s watch.

The threat was the same with AIG and GM. If either shut down, the economy would plummet into chaos and depression we were told."

It's good to be king.

Mel Sun Mar 15 19:48:41 2009 CDT #

Counterpointer says:

Oh dear, always be alarmed by a politician and a graph...

C

Counterpointer Sun Mar 15 19:49:01 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

In the last recession of the 90's RI was barely affected, only down 4%. This go around Real Estate is down 20% with more to go and it is a bubble pop pushing the economy down not a downturn in the economy pushing RI down a bit. Bottom line-- don't expect RI to EVER reach levels of three years ago. Look at Microsoft MSFT stock price for example and its non-recovery despite billions of earnings since 2000. Graphs like this break the old norms and set new Means. They do not revert back to the old "outlier" Mean.

Anonymous Sun Mar 15 19:50:33 2009 CDT #

Hal says:

The graphs are difficult to read because the colors are too light and some are too similar.

Hal Sun Mar 15 19:56:24 2009 CDT #

avl dao says:

Bob in Ma.
I made a similar observation at TBP. The dis-similarities in the underlying economic 'physics" between today and 1973-74-75 are not trivial.

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:8:05:24 PM
“As jg noted yesterday (and wally, jim & sporkfed note today) the "recovery" will be to something far different than anything in recent history."

Yes. Global Debt Unwind has dragged America into a Structural Economic Transformation. It's unclear where we're going to be deposited but it will be away from today's economic model of GDP 70% Driven by Consumers' Spending via Gobs of Household Debt.

avl dao Sun Mar 15 20:29:15 2009 CDT #

Lawyerliz says:

It will be different, but not necessarily bad.

Tho, I must say, I see few difference. People with jobs are acting the way they always have, and people who have lost out seem to just disappear.

Lawyerliz Sun Mar 15 21:08:41 2009 CDT #

Doc at the Radar Station says:

I think CR is spot on here. Look at the first graph... residential investment doesn't begin to reduce it's rate of contraction until approx. 1/4 of the way through the average recession. Think about it... that's about where we are right now. Geez Louiz, that would mean the end of the current "recession" until 2011.

Doc at the Radar Station Sun Mar 15 21:37:10 2009 CDT #

brucentennessee says:

If you take another look at both charts...they fit perfectly if today's recession/depression is MUCH deeper and MUCH longer...

Try it and see...

brucentennessee Mon Mar 16 06:46:49 2009 CDT #

JT says:

This is Depression 2.0. The technicals cannot be interpreted based on historical time series analysis. Those betting on technicals will be penniless.

JT Mon Mar 16 08:10:49 2009 CDT #

Comments for Hamilton: "What will recovery look like?"

END