Comments for "Nutting: Unemployment still rising"
Jay D. says:
.........first or what.........
Jay D. Thu Mar 26 15:21:38 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
First, or JS-Kit has crashed again....
Parent Post
Cinco-X Thu Mar 26 15:23:39 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Or maybe you're just first!
Parent Post
Cinco-X Thu Mar 26 15:24:07 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Lagging indicator ? Don't get me started. It leads consumer spending and confidence. As this number goes up consumers clamp down - more
bearly Thu Mar 26 15:24:04 2009 CDT #
alybaba says:
OT: JPM not satisified with stealing from taxpayers, resorts to delaying and reducing employee 401k contributions
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6KMcOpk5O1U&refer=home
alybaba Thu Mar 26 15:24:34 2009 CDT #
giacutter says:
Just my amateur hour observation, but it seems that stocks rarely bottom until unemployment peaks.
YMMV, consult local dealer, I'm an idiot, yada yada yada.
giacutter Thu Mar 26 15:24:59 2009 CDT #
JAF says:
I am sure this will ensure the equity markets go rocketing up tomorrow!
JAF Thu Mar 26 15:25:33 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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CRbot Thu Mar 26 15:26:38 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
But, the Nasdaq is now positive for the year. Surely, it can't be that bad. Everyone must still be buying iPhones and Kindles.
iceman Thu Mar 26 15:27:19 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Are you sure?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Thu Mar 26 15:29:23 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
Nutting to see here....move along please.
Comrade Janosik Thu Mar 26 15:27:32 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
...............where are all my last postings?..........CR.....you are good blogger , but damn lousy system administrator........
Jay D. Thu Mar 26 15:27:54 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
If you don't like we will refund your money
Parent Post
Nemo Thu Mar 26 17:23:00 2009 CDT #
mp says:
The Chinese are escalating the rhetoric concerning the economic crisis, which means they have an agenda.
Does anyone care to guess what it is?
Conjure knows, do you?
mp Thu Mar 26 15:28:22 2009 CDT #
wc says:
Just FYI: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=nutting
wc Thu Mar 26 15:29:15 2009 CDT #
rex says:
Someone named WC has a lot of nerve making fun of someone else's name.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=w.c.
Parent Post
rex Thu Mar 26 16:38:26 2009 CDT #
mp says:
China is escalating the rhetoric concerning the economic crisis, which means they have an agenda.
Conjure knows what it is.
Do you?
mp Thu Mar 26 15:29:18 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"China is escalating the rhetoric concerning the economic crisis, which means they have an agenda.
Conjure knows what it is.
Do you?"
You tease! No, I don't.
Parent Post
RockyR Thu Mar 26 15:32:54 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Sorted this one out in advance
Look at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO?cid=12
EMRATIO, Civilian Employment-Population Ratio
It's what matters, and it's not in the headlines so they don't worry about sanitizing it for the benefit of politicians or malcontent economists
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 15:30:18 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
oh, but this is a crisis of confidence if that is what you need to sleep at night and the confidence coming out of China will surely overwhelm us all shortly
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 15:32:14 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
I feel like I don't know much of anything anymore mp, will Conjure be sharing?
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 15:30:52 2009 CDT #
nova says:
mp says:
Today, 4:29:18 PM
<tbody>
“China is escalating the rhetoric concerning the economic crisis, which means they have an agenda.
Conjure knows what it is.
Do you?
</tbody>
They want to get paid?
nova Thu Mar 26 15:31:54 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
re: "They want to get paid?"
They completed the sale, this is not their typical post contract re-negotiation. No takebacks
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 15:33:33 2009 CDT #
Comrade Short Bucky says:
Does Conjure think the Chinese are agitating for a new reserve currency?
Comrade Short Bucky Thu Mar 26 15:32:16 2009 CDT #
® says:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-assistance-denied26-2009mar26,0,5868546,full.story
Grim story regarding middle income families trying for assistance.
® Thu Mar 26 15:32:59 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Does Conjure think the Chinese are agitating for a new reserve currency? "
Rocky just thinks they want to set the agenda from now on. Their agenda is to be the new super power. Oh, and they want Taiwan... perhaps in exchange for a few worthless UST Notes.
RockyR Thu Mar 26 15:35:05 2009 CDT #
An_XL_ROD says:
A couple of comments. The real unemployment will overshoot 20% soon. You know, using pre-Clinton era methodology that most other countries still use. Secondly, what's with the gay dating ads? Getting clicks, huh? Third, check this out. Myron-boy regrets CDS. "Only" a 1,5 quadrillion USD market:
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/03/06/myron-scholes-intellectual-godfather-of-the-credit-default-swap-says-blow-em-all-up/
An_XL_ROD Thu Mar 26 15:35:29 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..............shup up!!..........china want get back political and economic hegemony in Asia from US .......they are fully utilizing our dire strait situation........period......
Jay D. Thu Mar 26 15:35:48 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Want to see a little slice of what the future holds?
Pick a major vacational rental website for beach houses on the east coast. Pick a nice property and check availability. Do it a few times.
Going to be an ugly summer for the beach towns. Can't wait to see what happens with those 6 bedroom, 6 bath, beach houses they wedged in everywhere... I am sure that 6k a week was just spending money for the owners
nova Thu Mar 26 15:36:09 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
EHP,
I am going to have to update my CIVPART - EMRATIO spread plot...not sure why it works, but local minima in that plot reveals incipient recession...
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2008/04/local-minima-in-civpart-emratio-spread.html
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/01/civpart-emratio-revisited.html
energyecon Thu Mar 26 15:36:57 2009 CDT #
Bruce says:
They intend to announce they will back their currency with gold....... So long USD and the fiat BS on the Fed and Treasury.
Bruce Thu Mar 26 15:37:11 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
Lastest auto sales forecast from Edmunds:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2009/03/march-car-sales-look-a-lot-like-february-car-sales.html#more
iceman Thu Mar 26 15:37:24 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
@EHP
That's an interesting chart.. .I assume the level in the 1950s and 1960s was due to stay at home moms?
citiprank Thu Mar 26 15:38:06 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
<h3>Nutting: Unemployment still rising</h3>
It's not nutting, it's a big deal.
debtinator Thu Mar 26 15:39:21 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
How do we know what they intend to announce if they haven't announced it yet?
Outsider Thu Mar 26 15:39:27 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
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CRbot Thu Mar 26 15:40:33 2009 CDT #
scone says:
mp-China is escalating the rhetoric concerning the economic crisis, which means they have an agenda.
Conjure knows what it is.
Do you?
.
Far be it for me to test the eyeball of the all-seeing Conjure with my feeble backscratcher here. But if I were the Chinese, I'd be wanting to get something out of the g20 meeting, asserting my independence from the almighty dollah, making nationalistic noises for internal poputariat consumption, and bullying my trading partners in the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Generally throwing my weight around because I've got money and the other dweebs don't.
.
scone Thu Mar 26 15:41:47 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Oh, just got an email from a coworker. They have a friend that has fallen on hard times. She would like, if we have it, to drop off food and kids clothes, at her office. Apparently the friend has been surviving by using food banks to supplement her income. Only problem is the food bamks have turned her away twice because they don't have anything other than a few odds an ends.
nova Thu Mar 26 15:41:53 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
someone say "nutting"? :-[
Guest Thu Mar 26 15:42:15 2009 CDT #
snacky says:
Maybe the chinese are building the case for an argument for their own devaluation: "we had to do it to protect ourselves from the consequences of the dollar's fall." As these things go, the argument doesn't actually have to be true or make complete sense. They could also blame the dollar's APPRECIATION if that were still happening instead.
snacky Thu Mar 26 15:42:44 2009 CDT #
nova says:
An XL Rod
I think they read your cookies and flash the add based on where you frequent.
nova Thu Mar 26 15:43:37 2009 CDT #
An_XL_ROD says:
Nova, that must be it. Gotta stick with straight stuff from now on. Must brief Geithner and Volcker on this feature too. Any way to disable it? :)
Parent Post
An_XL_ROD Thu Mar 26 15:48:25 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
energyecon, thanks for putting the time into producing and sharing them charts
citiprank, There is the effect of women joining the official workforce, but more importantly there was the baby boom entering the work force. Anecdotally from my own family history, having women be stay at home mothers was for the upper class and not the norm. Keep in mind that post-wwii the USA had a boom simply because so much of the world's industrial capacity had been destroyed so perhaps there were more stay at home mothers then because everyone was a bit wealthier.
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 15:45:55 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Stay at home mom was the norm.
Parent Post
debtinator Thu Mar 26 15:55:36 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"making nationalistic noises for internal poputariat consumption"
Aye, there's the rub. Baltic dry, still looking a little... dry.
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 15:52:55 2009 CDT #
Carneades says:
Government Debt Investors Revolt
www.TheValueatRisk.blogspot.com
Carneades Thu Mar 26 15:56:09 2009 CDT #
taxdoc says:
The downward cycle continues...consumers continue to reduce spending...especially on "luxury" goods and services...which means less employment in autos, housing, high-end retail, and anything that can be "in-sourced" (washing cars, cleaning clothes, growing food, etc.) And, with fewer transactions being closed, there is less need for the FIRE sector (bankers) and attorneys....the scary part of this is that there are no industrial sectors or geographic areas in the U.S. that are growing.....and Europe and Japan are also falling quickly and deeply, and China/India have slowed.
The only things that appear to be different than 3 months ago are: (1) the fear/panic has subsided....for now....(2) everyone has found a use for the second derivative from calculus 101 by observing that the decline has slowed and there is constant talk of whether the bottom has occurred (is occurring), (3) interest rates are low for refinanicing (assuming sufficiently low LTV) and (4) the stock market is staging a rally (largely based on hope, rather than evidence).
taxdoc Thu Mar 26 15:56:13 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
Nova: I just toured a school with my little one. They have ploughed up a huge part of their field to make room for a spinach farm, the produce of which will be going directly to the neighbourhood food bank(s).
************
From earlier thread:
"OVERTHROW OF A RULING ELITE CANNOT BE DONE WITHOUT LARGE-SCALE VIOLENCE."
Jas, please stay drunk for the next 5 years. This is just wrong. It used to be right, but you are a little too old to understand, it seems, that we no longer require violence. We now have the internet, the most powerful tool in any arsenal. It is the greatest force multiplier that has ever existed (after the boob tube, radio, and newspapers). Just as it can be used to fight economic wars, it can be used to overthrow any entrenched oppressors. Oh, wait a sec... they control that too. Now, who are *they*?
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Thu Mar 26 15:58:11 2009 CDT #
Comrade_Terry says:
Nova - now, that was funny (about the cookies)!
Comrade_Terry Thu Mar 26 16:00:46 2009 CDT #
Comrade Coinz! says:
@energyecon:
Hey, very nice research and very nice charts. Good job!
Comrade Coinz! Thu Mar 26 16:01:42 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
"1) the fear/panic has subsided....for now"
Yeah, taxdoc, you might want to look into that further. If you check out the websites that sell automatic weapons, you'll notice that used submachine guns, for instance are *listed* at $10,000-$18,000 currently. If you go to websites that sell ammunition, you'll notice that... there is none. If you shop for, say, a home defense shotgun... there are none.
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Thu Mar 26 16:03:14 2009 CDT #
ss says:
Stop giving out jobless benefits and people will find work. Amazing how that happens.
ss Thu Mar 26 16:15:23 2009 CDT #
Jim S says:
People believing in that fantasy is one of our worst problems. Jobs don't magically appear. Millions of people don't just suddenly decide they're not going to work. Some conservatives are just completely out of touch with reality.
Parent Post
Jim S Thu Mar 26 20:50:15 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
Remain hopeful. Obama/Geithner are turning it around. Even with 25% unemployment, you have 75% employed. It's how you look at the glass.
turnthatfrownupsidedown Thu Mar 26 16:32:15 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
turnthatfrownupsidedown
Good point ! Look at the positive, that 25% unemployed is also producing a smaller carbon footprint. Let's up that to 50% ! Yeeeeeeh ! It's a green initiative !
Parent Post
Splat Thu Mar 26 16:43:06 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
Well thank God people like IBM are helping reverse this problem by offshoring an additional 5000. Like I've said before at what point have so many jobs been offshored that who's going to be able to afford anything ?
Splat Thu Mar 26 16:40:09 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Even with 25% unemployment, you have 75% employed. It's how you look at the glass."
I wish I could share your optimistic view, but where do you reach equilibrium? That additional 20% unemployed over recent norms, are going to be contributing WHAT, to the economy, besides crime, homelessness, and unrest?
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 16:40:50 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What if we pay unemployed people to secure the border?
We'd stop the influx of cheap illegal labor
We'd stop money being spent on drugs, which fund mostly other countries, so druggies would have to buy something legal and american made to get a fix which helps our economy.
The unemployed would get out of the cities and to places where unrest doesnt threaten the employed population.
Can someone forward this idea to Obama since he doesnt want to finish the fence and the fence works in the areas its built properly?
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 16:44:00 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
Anonymous says:
"We'd stop money being spent on drugs, which fund mostly other countries, so druggies would have to buy something legal and american made to get a fix which helps our economy. "
Something like a buy American narcotics campaign ?
"Oxycontin*, it's gets you high and it's made in America !"
"*approved for use by Rush Limbaugh chairman of the RNC"
Parent Post
Splat Thu Mar 26 16:53:34 2009 CDT #
locust says:
One in Five in Los Angeles are Out of Work
locust Thu Mar 26 16:56:56 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"One in Five in Los Angeles are Out of Work" Ooof. Someone better keep the LAPD on a tight leash. A Rodney King incident would turn despair to anger, very fast.
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 17:02:29 2009 CDT #
locust says:
Stop giving out jobless benefits and people will find work. Amazing how that happens.
It's like magic. The best part are the unicorns that poop butterfiles that come with every job. It's like a chicken in every pot, only better.
locust Thu Mar 26 17:06:47 2009 CDT #
Sebastian says:
taxdoc said: "....the scary part of this is that there are no industrial sectors or geographic areas in the U.S. that are growing..."
to which Uncle Billy, Mental Widget replied: "...If you check out the websites that sell automatic weapons, you'll notice that used submachine guns, for instance are *listed* at $10,000-$18,000 currently. If you go to websites that sell ammunition, you'll notice that... there is none. If you shop for, say, a home defense shotgun... there are none.
I think you both missed something. :) There's clearly a need for manufactured goods, in this case guns and ammunition, that's not being met. And not only is there need, but people are actually willing to spend their money to buy-up the supply of what they want that *is* available.
Sebastian
Sebastian Thu Mar 26 17:12:56 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
MP,
I don't know what Conjure knows, but the Chinese are having a tough year too. I posted a ink yesterday from the NYTimes that the Chinese are pulling back from all their ambitious plans in Africa, now that commodity prices have tanked. Beijing is full of vacant CRE, and even the birds nest stadium is going unused...and is soon to be remade into a shopping mall. And they continue to stomp on the Tibetans, and desertification continues in their western provinces.
Im with Comrade Kristina...please ask Conjure to share...
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 17:51:14 2009 CDT #
dw says:
not sure that China isn't just worried about the Fed gvmnt debt. its much smaller than the private sector (personal and business) debt and local (state/city/county) debt. never mind their equitiy losses.
and i am thinking that stopping unemployment benefits only ends up with a revolution. as they decide to take it out on ever thing else
at what point do we get tipping point and become like the rest of the world? having the same standard of living (like say India or China or Brazil) and can't recover from this wall street invented mess?
dw Thu Mar 26 18:14:12 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Stop giving out jobless benefits and people will find work. Amazing how that happens.
And this is why many republicans make lousy bloggers.
Is that all it takes to reach full employment in this country?
It's like curing hunger; just stop feeding them and the problem goes away after a while.
I don't know who bothers more - those lazy people who lost their jobs, or kids running around without shirts to show off their distended bellies looking for sympathy.
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:14:04 2009 CDT #
END