Comments for MBA: Refinance Boom will Boost Mortgage Originations to $2.7 Trillion in 2009
Nemo says:
Well that $2 trillion in new money has to show up somewhere.
Nemo Tue Mar 24 09:32:38 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/2622843422311708621
CRbot Tue Mar 24 09:33:42 2009 CDT #
Gubbmint Cheese says:
should be good for another 800 points on the delusional rally train...
*sigh*
Gubbmint Cheese Tue Mar 24 09:35:59 2009 CDT #
TakeDaMoneyAndRun says:
If you qualify.
If all you want to do is refi to lower your payments and payments have been current it would make sense.
TakeDaMoneyAndRun Tue Mar 24 09:38:55 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
I hope Ron Paul does less speechifying his latest crusade, and asks some hard, penetrating questions instead.
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 09:39:25 2009 CDT #
Lifeguard1999 says:
Refinance Boom will Boost Mortgage Originations to $2.7 Trillion in 2009, but only if they have good credit and have a job.
Of course, why should I refinance when I already have a loan at 4.875%???
Lifeguard1999 Tue Mar 24 09:40:02 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
Nemo says:Today, 6:32:38 PM“Well that $2 trillion in new money has to show up somewhere
I would think the laundering process should take longer than that.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Tue Mar 24 09:41:03 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
OK here is my analogy of the latest Geithner plan.
Picture a car full of screaming people shooting off a cliff, plundging to their death.
Now freeze frame.
Back up the film until the car is still a few feet from going off the edge of the cliff.
Now a guy in a nice three piece suit walks into the frozen frame of car, people screaming, etc. He opens the doors one at a time and goes thru everyones purse, pockets, wallets, taking all their money, closes the doors, and walks out of the frame counting the money.
OK, now roll film.
--souperman2
adornosghost Tue Mar 24 09:45:16 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT, but kinda' funny:
From :http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200632/200632pap.pdf
"Also, uncertainty has increased, but, generally inconsistent with the perception of a “bubble,” the implied risks do not seem particularly tilted to the downside."
They really didn't have a clue;-)
Cinco-X Tue Mar 24 09:46:12 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Almost all of this will be done by loan officers at banks,not by loan brokers.
Tom Stone Tue Mar 24 09:46:48 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
I have a bad feeling about this. Sounds like 2005-2007 all over again.
JimPortlandOR Tue Mar 24 09:48:25 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
I have a bad feeling about this. Sounds like 2005-2007 all over again.
The securitization conduit isn't there for the 2005-2007 insanity to repeat - the international appetite for that last critical leg isn't there. Like running three world record legs of a relay then dropping the baton on the anchor leg. All for not.
The result is there will be refinancing but only w/in the conforming market & securitized into 'agency'... CR is right, Jumbo's will be left still hurting. And much of sub-prime is already well on the way to 'foreclosure' - no real relief there either.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 10:07:28 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Dryfly, Did you mean "All for 'naught'"?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Tue Mar 24 10:29:51 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Easiest refi: stop paying
reptillian Tue Mar 24 09:49:33 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Crooks and bad behavior among the general population must be rewarded under the current system of the demos.
jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 09:55:05 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Debt Pushers, scum of the earth, are still firmly in control of the US economy. They were firmly in control before, during, and after the crisis.
Only the collapse of the current econo-political system would rid America of the evildoers in-charge today.
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 24 09:50:13 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Dradis contact! Jain fleet! Launch raptors!
debtinator Tue Mar 24 09:52:27 2009 CDT #
JohnRDC says:
I am puzzling through all this to figure out how the government's multiple interventions in the housing markets will help restore growth in the economy. Obviously, refinancing a higher interest rate to a lower interest rate mortgage will produce some extra monthly income for the relatively few who do so. Is this going to be enough to boost consumer spending in a measurable way?
It seems to me that the market for new homes still has a long way to go to find an equilibrium. Some areas seem to be moving toward this faster than others. If unemployment keeps on rising, and industrial production keeps on dropping, then where is the income, or the willingness, going to come from for people to start buying new homes again?
I foresee some churning of existing homes as people move up or down the size scale based on their ages, but I do not see a breakout into new growth territory financed by people flush with cash and/or optimism. Most people, I should guess, will opt to stay put until they feel once again comfortable with their finances and job prospects.
In the meantime, the government is taking on huge liabilities for the stated purpose of resuscitating housing. I just don't see it happening. There are a lot of people on this thread who have more intelligence and experience in housing than I do. I would be interested if one of them would explain to me how all this government debt building is going to revive housing? Isn't that the end game here?
JohnRDC Tue Mar 24 09:54:00 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
If the govt interventions produced good results we would have achieved economic nirvana long time ago. Only morons put faith in a system headed by low lives like Bernanke and Obama, agents of the banking and finance crooks.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 10:05:29 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Merrill/Bank America Departures
CRbot Tue Mar 24 09:57:07 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Wouldn't most of the 'confirming loan' holders already refinanced back in 2002-03?
REBear Tue Mar 24 09:58:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Wouldn't most of the 'confirming loan' holders already refinanced back in 2002-03?"
An awful lot of loans have occurred since then. SOME of them should be conforming.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 10:00:00 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
I hope Ron Paul does less speechifying his latest crusade, and asks some hard, penetrating questions instead.
LOL - you are asking for a lot. If that was his strength he'd have been doing it all along - it ALWAYS gets you farther than 'speechifying'.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 09:58:34 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"you are asking for a lot."
Yeah, but Ron and Maxine are the only ones crazy enough to go off-message. I want to hear more "coinz" and less gold standard/evil fed.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 10:15:07 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"Debt Pushers, scum of the earth"
credit consumers, scum of the earth.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Tue Mar 24 09:58:37 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
How much is taxpayers now on the hook for during this rush. Notice that FHA defaults on initial refi payments already at historic levels, Looks and smells like another attempt to spike the economy via housing not a good sign.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 10:00:24 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Giethner with a smirk on his face is playing those fools.
REBear Tue Mar 24 10:03:58 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Giethner with a smirk on his face is playing those fools."
I would disagree. They all serve the same masters of the universe. This is theater. A puppet show.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 10:11:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
CR: doesn't this actually hurt the big shitpile of mortgage-backed securities? If the good mortgages in the pool are being paid off early, that removes the one source of profitability of those assets, leaving them only with the crappy stuff.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 10:05:23 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
U.S. home prices rise for first time in 12 months
REBear Tue Mar 24 10:05:52 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
REBear says: “U.S. home prices rise for first time in 12 months"
I hope that you are joking. Only a clueless dope would make that statement.
The US home prices are falling at the fastest rate ever--at 5% a monthly rate for all 25 metros, as per the latest Radar Logic data. For 20 of the 25 metros the home prices are falling at the fastest rate in decades. It would be confirmed in a week by the Case-Shiller report.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 24 11:00:33 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
"More power". Perhaps this isn't a quote from Tim Geithner at Treasury, but rather Tim Allen from Tool Time.
Some Investor Guy Tue Mar 24 10:06:19 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
If you think they're busy now, wait until rates go below 4.5%.
Anyone believe rates are going to go as low as 4%?
Outsider Tue Mar 24 10:06:33 2009 CDT #
Martin, the Netherlands says:
I understand that the FHFA monthly figures for January show a rise in house prices of 1,7%. Does anyone think this is the beginning of an upward trend?
Martin, the Netherlands Tue Mar 24 10:07:51 2009 CDT #
PTDBD says:
The AIG Bonus tax will not pass. As with the change to the Dodd Amendment, legal reasons will be cited "to protect the taxpayer".
PTDBD Tue Mar 24 10:09:35 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Refinancing = Rearranging the deck chairs.
I predict that very little will be re-fi'd. The transaction costs in a declining market are going to matter to borrowers. Too many borrowers won't qualify. When appraisals come in many will be denied. When appraisals come in a sizeable group will simply stop paying the current mortgage. There are an unimaginably large number of Californicators with $400k mortgages on houses now worth $300k. They just don't know it yet. They will when they attempt to re-fi.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 10:09:59 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
Rob - Are you looking at the numbers nationally or just from Cali's perspective? Don't forget, many parts of the country are not in as dire straits as Cali. In many areas, refi's are strong right now. Otherwise the trend wouldn't be positive (albeit temporarily).
Outsider Tue Mar 24 10:13:24 2009 CDT #
ponzi maniax says:
we're in your banks
we're on your teevee screens
you'll see us in your nightmares
you'll see us in your dreams
ponzi maniax Tue Mar 24 10:15:13 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
"A puppet show."
You are right :(
REBear Tue Mar 24 10:15:48 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
REBear that "rise" in prices is due to a change in the mix.The mid to high end range is showing some movement at prices that are much lower than prior years,but at higher prices than the low end stuff that has been the market recently.
Tom Stone Tue Mar 24 10:16:40 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Lot of refi's are focal on a lower payment but miss the real long term cost of the clock reset. Most will cost more in the long run. :-D
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Tue Mar 24 10:16:46 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Most will cost more in the long run."
But housing only goes up, so you would make it up on the appreciation...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 10:19:19 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Geithner being grilled on the role of Goldman-Sachs in our financial economy.
Lucifer Tue Mar 24 10:17:39 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
"Refinance Boom will Boost Mortgage Originations to $2.7 Trillion in 2009, but only if they have good credit and have a job. "
And don't forget a min. of 80% LTV. Many will be surprised how not lower their payments will be when they try to convert from a 5/1 or 7/1 interest only, to a fully amortized 30 yr fixed, even at a much lower rate. A big nothingburger, especially here in CA
Markar Tue Mar 24 10:18:40 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
"Refinance Boom will Boost Mortgage Originations to $2.7 Trillion in 2009, but only if they have good credit and have a job. "
And don't forget a min. of 80% LTV. Many will be surprised how not lower their payments will be when they try to convert from a 5/1 or 7/1 interest only, to a fully amortized 30 yr fixed, even at a much lower rate. A big nothingburger, especially here in CA
Plus there are places with the opposite of the CA effect - places where their balance is so low [house is so cheap] the fees eat up any possible savings from a refi. That happened to us... I asked a banker recently if it made sense to refi - he looked at my current interest rate and said 'Heck yes'... I'm paying like 2% more than currently low rates. We then dug up my balance and he said - no. Our balance was way under $100K... like maybe $60K with nine years to go. No way it makes sense to refi - he said their mgmt didn't want to even deal with loans under $100K unless there was a nice interest rate spread. Oh well - I guess we'll just have to keep paying it off as is.
I think there are a lot of people out there like me. We are the cash cows those suckers ought to be thankful for.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 24 10:35:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Can you say MEW
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 10:18:53 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Who has equity to withdraw?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Tue Mar 24 10:31:48 2009 CDT #
Slid says:
We doing a refi, conforming loan in TX, current on payments, value has held, the loan is only for 60% of the value of the house, etc. Our monthly payment will drop by more than $500 BUT we are a one-income household and that one income has taken a 25% wage cut (temporary but no end has been announced). So there will be very little stimulus effect from that extra $500.
Slid Tue Mar 24 10:19:39 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Dawg,I am seeing quite a few people who have substantial equity and good incomes move from 30 year fixed %5.875 loans to 15 year fixed %4.75 loans.people with exotic loans are pretty much screwed.
Tom Stone Tue Mar 24 10:20:05 2009 CDT #
PTDBD says:
Poor Geithner - he has a very difficult time asnwering questions directly. It's like he has a self-censorship time delay before answering.
Maybe it's because he is under strain having no help and all. On the other hand, it must be nice not to have anyone looking over your shoulder to question your actions and statements.
PTDBD Tue Mar 24 10:20:32 2009 CDT #
rapunzel says:
I don't know why the media blitz by the pres (op-ed in 30 leading newspapers around the world) makes me angry.
rapunzel Tue Mar 24 10:21:57 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I don't know why the media blitz by the pres (op-ed in 30 leading newspapers around the world) makes me angry."
Because they are pulling out all the stops and squandering all potential political capital to take us down an economic dead-end? And once the Dems lose power in the mid-terms due to their incompetance, any opportunities to do any good work undoing some of the bad choices that were made under W, will be gone?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 10:29:21 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"But housing only goes up, so you would make it up on the appreciation..."
Trust me_____! ;)
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Tue Mar 24 10:23:25 2009 CDT #
krid says:
“I don't know why the media blitz by the pres (op-ed in 30 leading newspapers around the world) makes me angry."
Someone has to be the global statesman when the global currency needs to be pitched. View it as an audition.
krid Tue Mar 24 10:25:34 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
"Nice little country you have here, be a shame if anything happened to it."
-- The Banksters
adornosghost Tue Mar 24 10:35:45 2009 CDT #
PTDBD says:
Who was the last woman questioning Bernanke? His voice is starting to tremble again. She has some very pertinent questions. Too bad Frank gets in the way.
PTDBD Tue Mar 24 10:36:07 2009 CDT #
mark says:
Sounds like Michelle Bachmann. She was a tax lawyer - she's a little nutty, but she knows finance and I suspect she knows a scam.
Parent Post
mark Tue Mar 24 10:50:28 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Dryfly, Did you mean "All for 'naught'"?
Who knows what I was thinking - I'm doing six things at once and am a moron to boot.
;)
dryfly Tue Mar 24 10:37:31 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
LOL- A lot of that going around;-)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Tue Mar 24 10:57:26 2009 CDT #
cd says:
mn rep asked ? on treasury plan will taxpayers get 97% of upside since that is the amount they are putting down..B Frank cut her off and wouldnt let timmy answer...good ? and then next rep doesn't even ask what is your answer on previous ?
these people are inept and shills...Congress is a joke that keeps going and going...the everready bunnies of stupidity
cd Tue Mar 24 10:37:32 2009 CDT #
Hoopajoops LTD says:
Finding some increasing and disturbing sentiment out there amongst the kid crowd:
"You know what kids today aren’t responsible for? This mess. This is all you, Baby Boomer Bob and Baby Boomer Betty. You put US here with your wanton spending on cars, houses and erections, with your hubristic manipulation of interest rates and free markets, your sense of entitlement, the way in which you transformed politics and Government into a galvanized arena of us vs them, and your cohort’s giant ego.
Recommendation: Here’s my advice for the rest of my cohort. Take dead aim on the boomers. Get them in the crosshairs and take them down. Just remember, they may be buying everything with your money, but they can’t buy backbone. The sooner we, rich, poor and everyone in-between, come together and shake the Baby Boom death grip off both power and purse, the better."
Hoopajoops LTD Tue Mar 24 10:38:23 2009 CDT #
Holdie says:
CR, you probably shouldn't assume that mortgage brokers will be busy. They might not even exist by the end of the year.
With this $2.7 trillion estimate, does the MBA assume that mortgage brokers, warehouse lines of credit, and mortgage insurance will be available all year? They shouldn't.
Holdie Tue Mar 24 10:38:55 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
I would be interested if one of them would explain to me how all this government debt building is going to revive housing?
The idea is to arrest the foreclosure-->price decline spiral, because the correlation de jure is that negative equity is the best indicator of foreclosure.
Might work in some areas, but places like SoCal and Las Vegas, where the recession is caused by housing, are beyond hope.
Basel Too Tue Mar 24 10:39:13 2009 CDT #
JohnRDC says:
Thanks, Basel Too
Parent Post
JohnRDC Tue Mar 24 11:36:31 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
"B Frank cut her off and wouldnt let timmy answer...good "
...and Frank gave the guy who was brown nosing Timmay extra time!
REBear Tue Mar 24 10:41:03 2009 CDT #
ponzi maniax says:
Take a little walk to the edge of town, go across the tracks
Where the viaduct looms like a bird of doom, as it shifts and cracks
Where secrets lie in the border fires, in the humming wires,
Hey man you know you're never coming back
Past the square, past the bridge, past the mills past the stacks
On a gathering storm comes a tall handsome man
In a dusty black coat with a red right hand.
He'll wrap you in his arms tell you that you've been a good boy
He'll rekindle all the dreams it took you a lifetime to destroy.
He'll reach deep into your soul, steal your shrinking soul
but there wont be a single thing that you can do
He's a god, he's a man, he's a ghost, he's a guru
They're whispering his name though this disapearing land
But hidden in his coat is a red right hand
You dont own no money? He'll get you some
You don't have no car? he'll get you one
You dont have no self respect you feel like an insect,
Well dont you worry buddy coz here he comes
Through the ghettos and the barrio and the bowery and the slums
A shadow is cast whereever he stands
Stacks of green paper in his red right hand
You'll see him in your nightmares, you'll see him in your dreams
He'll appear out of no where but he aint what he seems
You'll see him in your head, on the TV screen
And hey buddy, Im warning you to turn it off
He's a ghost, he's a god, he's a man, he's a guru
You're one microscopic cog in his catastrophic plan
designed and directed by his red right hand.
Nick Cave's "Red Right Hand"
ponzi maniax Tue Mar 24 10:43:54 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Earlier question was about the net effect of all of this?
Yeah, folks with decent credit and house not u/w will do okay. But the other stopper is that - as someone said - the loans will be coming from banks and the last that I checked, we seemed to have this problem with banks not lending. Hey, that's why the new Geithner plan is in effect.
I see it as just an opportunity to make some fees off of folks who haven't a chance in hell.
homedad43 Tue Mar 24 10:44:39 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
O/T question :
While currently watching "House Financial Services Committee to Hear from Secretary Geithner and Chairman Bernanke on AIG" , I am glad to see that "Code Pink" is present. The question occured to me, "Why do Bernanke and Geithner not also wear Code Pink sweaters ? "
Werner Tue Mar 24 10:45:18 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Hoops:
Hell, I'm a boomer and I agree with them.
homedad43 Tue Mar 24 10:47:17 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The author assumes that the Obama budget deficits will not outweigh Helicopter Ben. The Chinese are already starting to diversify by stockpiling commodities on the cheap. Once no one is left to buy Treasuries the 10-year is going to 5%. Can't have mortgage loans at 4.5% when the 10-year is at 5%.
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 10:49:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The U.S. government plan to rid banks of toxic assets will rob American taxpayers by exposing them to too much risk and is unlikely to work as long as the economy remains weak, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Tuesday.
"The Geithner plan is very badly flawed," Stiglitz told Reuters in an interview during a Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE52N1IO20090324?virtualBrandChannel=10112
That's the full intention
=-X
Anonymous Tue Mar 24 10:51:58 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Q4 Mortgage Equity Extraction Strongly Negative
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/q4-mortgage-equity-extraction-strongly.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
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I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Tue Mar 24 10:52:20 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
...MBA: Refinance Boom will Boost Mortgage Originations to $2.7 Trillion in 2009...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yeah, more Mortgage Origination is needed.
Americans (having next to no own money) NEVER have enough credit (read some on elses money). That's why Americane are called "credit-junkies" !
Werner Tue Mar 24 10:52:50 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Guitner always ends up saying "I didn't know the 'details' of the AIG bonus until Mar 10"
When was the first time he had knowledge of the bonus???
REBear Tue Mar 24 10:55:15 2009 CDT #
PTDBD says:
Down in the Treasury Basement, far away from media cameras, in a bare office that reeks of mildew, the machinery of justice and hope for America is starting to rumble to life, going feckin forward.
PTDBD Tue Mar 24 10:56:06 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
Michelle Bachman is a clown. I live in MN. She's an ideologue and an idiot.
Mannwich Tue Mar 24 11:00:49 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Outsider says:Today, 8:13:24 AM PDT
Rob - Are you looking at the numbers nationally or just from Cali's perspective? Don't forget, many parts of the country are not in as dire straits as Cali. In many areas, refi's are strong right now. Otherwise the trend wouldn't be positive (albeit temporarily).
Things are worse in Cali for sure but I think we'll find inadequate asset values everywhere. Brokers may want to do a deal but the banks are looking at reduced revenues so expect appraisals to be conservative.
Tom Stone says:Today, 8:20:05 AM PDT
Dawg,I am seeing quite a few people who have substantial equity and good incomes move from 30 year fixed %5.875 loans to 15 year fixed %4.75 loans.people with exotic loans are pretty much screwed.
Yep. And that's going to be the other reason why I don't see a surge like MBA predicts. Exotic loans are going to die as opposed to in the past when they were rollovers.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 11:02:30 2009 CDT #
Flic says:
I'm not quite sure how anyone in FL that bought in the last 5-6 years could refi at all. My 'hood is down 60% from peak and full of vacant houses and foreclosures. I gladly just signed another 1 yr lease......
Flic Tue Mar 24 11:06:02 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
Michelle Bachman is lot better than my representative. My representative is a cross between monkey and a clown.
REBear Tue Mar 24 11:06:16 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
Sherman always asks the right questions - Geithner is an idiot. Ask him if it's "daytime" and he'd have to "get back" to you.
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 24 11:09:00 2009 CDT #
Teddy says:
Yup, we need more refinancing at artificially lower interest rates..........to leverage ourselves even more.........to buy more Chinese, Japanese, and European crap.........run a bigger trade deficit so that wall street and the elites can promote more global growth and make more money at America's expense. Sorry Ben, if this is what u think is going to restart sustained growth "by the end of the year", u are more deeply disturbed than I thought u were. After all the jobs recently lost that r never coming back, the only ones that would follow your plan would be the most desperate and most likely to default again. Get a life, you're a deadbeat. Had to laugh and then almost get sick to my stomach when a banker asked Obama about small business loans at a town hall meeting in California last week. She complained that the requirements for the loans had become more strict and that her bank had to pledge collateral in order to make the loan. Obama told her that soon the government would start buying up all the loans she makes thru SBA.........sounds like deja vu all over again, just like fannie and freddie and their new makeover the FHA. And if Ben floods the world with money created out of thin air and Obama runs a budget deficit of around four trillion (don't laugh, he just might do it), I think we could have a temporary recovery in nominal terms only (all due to increased prices) and the treasury bond bubble would have to pop to stop the inflation and the "growth". :'(
Teddy Tue Mar 24 11:11:32 2009 CDT #
danm says:
Doesn't this just make MBS pools even crappier? Something tells me they were not pricing best clients refinancing at lower rates.
danm Tue Mar 24 11:14:29 2009 CDT #
Divide by 0 says:
I'm in process to refi down from 5. something to 4.something. This time the appraiser came out and went INSIDE the house. This is in California...
Also thinking about cashing out some of the equity to replace the heater and do some remodeling which has been 40 years overdue. If you aren't underwater, these are good times. Contractors return your phone calls.
Divide by 0 Tue Mar 24 11:16:34 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
I remember a time when interest rates and especially the risk premia contained therein actually we UP when the borrower's capacity to pay and collateral was in jeopardy.
Darth Paulson Tue Mar 24 11:17:15 2009 CDT #
Sebastian says:
JohnRDC said: "I am puzzling through all this to figure out how the government's multiple interventions in the housing markets will help restore growth in the economy..."
Speaking of puzzling things regarding government intervention, here's another one: Bailout recipients that give back their bailout money, want to pay it back as soon as possible or reconsider their initial request and reject the offer of bailout money.
In what way does this jive with, "Oh, my God! If we don't get this money, and right now, the financial system is going to crash!", the selling-points argued by Paulsen and Bernanke as well as the banks?
Sebastian
Sebastian Tue Mar 24 11:19:46 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
Ron Paul can't just ask "stake in the heart" questions....
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 24 11:21:24 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
Hoop, in some other countries, war or insane economic policies resulted in most of the young people leaving. The older generations were left with problems of their own making.
Some Investor Guy Tue Mar 24 11:23:25 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"I'm in process to refi down from 5. something to 4.something. This time the appraiser came out and went INSIDE the house. This is in California..."
After the S&L crisis we did a refi and the appraiser even counted the sprinkler heads! =-O
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Tue Mar 24 11:24:21 2009 CDT #
Teddy says:
During that same town hall meeting, Obama mumbled that the new manufacturing in the US would be in wind turbines, solar energy, and other green energy forms. And just last week, it was announced that the state of New York would be buying their solar panels from four sources.......all foreign. :'(
Teddy Tue Mar 24 11:27:19 2009 CDT #
Bill says:
I don't like reading about how mortgage brokers are going to be making good money in 2009. I am a curmudgeon who gets a boner out of Doom-and-Gloom / pain / hotshot salesmen being SOL with their jobs. Reading this just wreaks havoc on my worldview - and where I gain pleasure. Oh well. I can go back to complaining about the legislators while I myself offer no substantive alternative plan. I am insecure Old Money.
Bill Tue Mar 24 11:39:33 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
During that same town hall meeting, Obama mumbled that the new manufacturing in the US would be in wind turbines, solar energy, and other green energy forms. And just last week, it was announced that the state of New York would be buying their solar panels from four sources.......all foreign.
Surprised? I should think not.
I was just on the phone with a buddy - mfg company - he told me all they have now are 'program mgrs' and 'financial types' working for them... very few of their management understands how to actually make stuff and of the few that do not one is younger than 50 years old... when they retire or get laid off [targets for that always] the company will have to cease making high margin complex work because no one there knows how and they also won't be able to make 'cheap stuff' because their overhead is so high [finance & program mgrs are pricey]. They willbecome just another middleman - buy and resell. Like there aren't enough of them already.
I see that a lot of places even ones where we still can make stuff - the bench is short and those with institutional memory have one foot out the door already. It isn't too late to get the train back on the track but they better hurry.
dryfly Tue Mar 24 11:49:40 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
yes Dryfly...another Gorilla or should we say Orang-Utan??
Its called skill destruction... not on any card i read so far from the "Experts" or as i call them "Overeducated Redundants"...
Yoringe Tue Mar 24 12:00:35 2009 CDT #
Lazar Kaganovich says:
Talking heads at the Fin. Serv. Committee hearing will look great on pikes, perhaps even more photogenic than CNBC's.
Neca eos omnes. Deus suos agnocet.
Lazar Kaganovich Tue Mar 24 12:32:30 2009 CDT #
sdbri says:
Serial refinancers never realized they were signing up for 40, 50 year mortgages! But monthly payment and inflation impact is all that matters right.
sdbri Tue Mar 24 14:18:45 2009 CDT #
SimonK says:
There are a lot of previously-jumbo loans out there that are conforming now. Once the stimulus bill limits come into force, the limit will be 729,500 in high cost area. That's a lot more than 417k and should enable a lot of people to refi.
SimonK Tue Mar 24 17:22:44 2009 CDT #
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