Comments for Comparing the NAHB Housing Market Index and New Home Sales
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/2881068693051853515
CRbot Mon Mar 16 17:24:32 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Major bottoming process.
Nemo Mon Mar 16 17:24:35 2009 CDT #
Bernanke\'s Beautiful Barber says:
My take on M2M suspension:
This is the equivalent of going to Thailand on a 2 week sex binge, tagging every woman raw dog and then not getting an STD test when you get back b/c you don't want to know
Bernanke\'s Beautiful Barber Mon Mar 16 17:27:48 2009 CDT #
Average Joe says:
The question is, will the damage to current major home builders be the knock out punch? Will sentiment bottom in the form of BK's?
Perhaps sentiment doesn't move up until there is a whole new set of builders on the survey list.
Average Joe Mon Mar 16 17:30:20 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
Given that the index can't really go much lower than it is now, I'd have to say we're out of "headroom" for head fakes. But this is still probably just headfake #4.
I'm not right as much as I'd like, but I think the MTM suspension wasn't the real reason why the market rolled over and went into a high-volume slump this afternoon. Or at least, it wasn't the only reason, or even the largest reason. To the extent that it was a reason, it wasn't because it does much (it doesn't), but because it shows that the leadership still hasn't come to grips with the root causes of the economic problem.
Wisdom Speaker Mon Mar 16 17:31:55 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Wisdom Speaker says: Given that the index can't really go much lower than it is now...
?
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 17:42:10 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
National balance sheet accounts http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090316/dq090316a-eng.htm
Fourth quarter 2008 (Previous release)
Household net worth retreated for the second consecutive quarter, declining $252 billion, or 4.4%, in the fourth quarter as stock market prices continued to fall. On a per capita basis, household net worth fell from $179,300 in the second quarter of 2008 to $165,300 in the fourth quarter, a $14,000 decrease.
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 17:33:05 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Will Ferrell on CNBC
CRbot Mon Mar 16 17:33:07 2009 CDT #
Tom Lawler says:
The good news is that builders are just not building many homes, and as such they are now no longer contributing to the housing glut In fact, by the latter part of this year, the housing stock may no longer be growing at all -- I'm not sure if that has ever happened!
Tom Lawler Mon Mar 16 17:42:31 2009 CDT #
nades says:
I see pigs everywhere! :D
nades Mon Mar 16 17:45:41 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
Looks like the HMI is the first derivative of the home sales numbers.
Some Investor Guy Mon Mar 16 17:46:12 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Erm, relevance? Materiality?
Sorry, this is immaterial CR. With the greatest respect.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 17:47:09 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
BREAKING NEWS: Mexico says it will increase tariffs on about 90 U.S. products in retaliation for decision to cancel program..about 3 hours ago from twitterfeed WSJ
Guest Mon Mar 16 17:49:08 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
All I can say about the chart is that it looks like actual sales have a tendency to pull the NAHB numbers back to reality.
reptillian Mon Mar 16 17:55:49 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
We won't find a bottom in housing until PTI makes sense. Falling incomes will mean ever falling housing prices. Get used to it. This is a viscous downward spiral.
RockyR Mon Mar 16 17:56:44 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Retail REITs Have Further to Fall as Stores Struggle
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a746DhVXRXQc&refer=home
pro srs argument
cd Mon Mar 16 17:56:57 2009 CDT #
Eric K. says:
Jan '09 looks exactly like Jan '08, no? So my guess is a temporary rise in NHS and then downward again.
Eric K. Mon Mar 16 18:02:17 2009 CDT #
Florence Nightingale says:
CR went to a blog party and didn't invite us. :'(
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/03/16/blog-party-the-view-from-calculated-risk/16429/
Florence Nightingale Mon Mar 16 18:10:03 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
How many other rich assholes - crooks or otherwise - owe the IRS far more money than I'll earn in my lifetime? And what's taking the IRS so long to collect?
Accused billionaire swindler R. Allen Stanford and his wife owe the IRS $226.6 million in back taxes, according to a new court filing by the IRS. A lien filed in Stanford's divorce records indicated he owed $114 million, but the new IRS filing shows the total debt is nearly twice that figure.
-Atrios 16:39
adornosghost Mon Mar 16 18:11:32 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
CR went to a blog party and didn't invite us. Cry
That's okay - I don't even go to parties that would invite me.
dryfly Mon Mar 16 18:15:49 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Easy article to understand re: CRB rise in future...
http://www.kitco.com/ind/katz/mar162009.html
nothing new especially for all the smart people here..just flowed well and made cents!
cd Mon Mar 16 18:18:33 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Couple of day old interview with J. Rogers
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.09/rogers.html
Guest Mon Mar 16 18:20:39 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
Yeah, something else to watch "cliff dive". You think it can't get any lower....pop some popcorn and crack open a cold one....cuz this movie is a horror story and not some happy ending chick flick. >:o
Money Man Mon Mar 16 18:21:27 2009 CDT #
RuffRednSore says:
Yesterday Summers said he expects monthly job losses of 600k or more to continue until there are no more jobs left. Then we'll start to recover. Oh, and he said that Geithner is working on a plan....still. Yep, it's gonna be some masterpiece since he's spent so much time on it. He'll make his president proud of him.
RuffRednSore Mon Mar 16 18:28:04 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I wrote more on my CR inspired story of life after the economy crashes.
excerpt:
I stopped cleaning to watch it. It was fascinating in a slow motion, car wreck, kind of way. It was a combination of failures that were driving these people across the border in what CNN was calling the biggest migration of people to America ever. It was epic. Epic as in the total failure of the Mexican state. Epic in the failure of the United States government’s inability to do much of anything for any of the people involved. Epic in the migration of countless people across hostile terrain, dodging hostile locals, and predators from both countries ripping at them from all sides.
Mexico had watched the flow of their oil fields diminish, while at the same time the price of oil dropped to levels unseen in years. This meant no money for government programs. This, combined with a worldwide depression, returning citizens from the USA, the rise of the gangs, and general incompetence on both sides of the border. The result was the citizens of Mexico voted with their feet. They had to. To stay meant to die. Either slowly from lack of food and water, or by the violence that was completely out of control. As the CNN anchor said “It is not a drug war now. It is a civil war.”
for more: http://afterthecrash.net/?author=2
nova Mon Mar 16 18:30:29 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
OT: Bush Back in Public?
MANSFIELD, La. (AP) -- Authorities arrested a 32-year-old Texas man on drug charges on Thursday after construction workers saw him on his hands and knees, eating mud and growling like a dog. A woman who accompanied the man from Texas told investigators he had been wandering around the complex and eating dog food.
Sheriff's Lt. Horace Womack said a small bottle of PCP, a half-pound of marijuana and one-fourth ounce of crack cocaine were seized during the man's arrest.
The man was booked with possessing all three drugs with intent to distribute them. He was placed in a cell where jailers at the DeSoto Detention Center could keep an eye on him.
adornosghost Mon Mar 16 18:32:56 2009 CDT #
otishertz says:
i nominate YAHOO finance for most tarded of the 2000's
When Stock Prices Drop, Where's the Money?
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/106739/When-Stock-Prices-Drop-Where%27s-the-Money?mod=fidelity-buildingwealth
"so, if you purchase a stock for $10 and then sell it for only $5, you will (obviously) lose $5. It may feel like that money must go to someone else, but that isn't exactly true. It doesn't go to the person who buys the stock from you. The company that issued the stock doesn't get it either. The brokerage is also left empty-handed, as you only paid it to make the transaction on your behalf. So the question remains: where did the money go?"
hey morons, it went to who ever sold you the stock. they go on...
"The most straightforward answer to this question is that it actually disappeared into thin air, along with the decrease in demand for the stock, or, more specifically, the decrease in investors' favorable perception of it."
otishertz Mon Mar 16 18:39:52 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
I get the feeling senate staffers are now reading this blog. A few threads ago, I suggested taxing the AIG bonuses. And now...
"As public and political outrage grows over $165 million AIG paid as bonuses to executives while taking billions in taxpayer dollars, an idea is germinating in Congress. If you cannot get the money back, tax the bonuses.
"It's an idea very much at the embryonic stage," said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-CT, "You can write a tax provision targeted specifically at 98% of the taxable proceeds."
Dodd said that "doesn't violate the terms of the contracts," referring to legally-binding agreements that appear to preclude government action.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-MT, says his staff is reviewing such a proposal. He called it a "worthy" idea but said he needs to know more about how it would work.
Dodd says this is something that "could happen fast. We could write this tomorrow."
When asked if he plans to write legislation to limit the Federal Reserve's unfettered ability to lend money without strings attached, so as to prevent the situation with AIG from happening again, Dodd would not answer directly, saying only, "We need to look at that whole debate about modernization of the system...They've got to do a better job."
Dodd says he plans hearings into the AIG bonuses. The senator said he was told about the controversy on Thursday."
So, I'll repeat how to do this, for any staffers who only heard about the original post indirectly. Come up with a definition of "firms receiving substantial bailout funds", or something similar. Set an annual compensation level of $x. Anything over $x dollars in compensation from an employer receiving substantial bailout funds is taxed at 100%. Consistent with other income taxes, the employer would do the withholdings. Thus, nothing over $x ever makes it the employee. The employer has fulfilled their obligation. They made a contract, but had no guarantee about what rate salaries and bonuses would be taxed at.
Some Investor Guy Mon Mar 16 18:40:25 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“Couple of day old interview with J. Rogers
Why does the tone of this interview make me think that people are listening to Jim Rogers more?
ac Mon Mar 16 18:40:34 2009 CDT #
otishertz says:
it ends like this
"No one really knows why socks go into the dryer and never come out, but next time you're wondering where that stock price came from or went to, at least you can chalk it up to market perception."
tarded
otishertz Mon Mar 16 18:45:12 2009 CDT #
otishertz says:
Some Investor Guy says:
Today, 4:40:25 PM
“I get the feeling senate staffers are now reading this blog.
hey staffers! end the corporate liability shield for the directors of financial corporations. that is all the reform you need because if the people we trust with our bank deposits fear for the loss of their savings they will be more careful of ours.
otishertz Mon Mar 16 18:51:00 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
Otis, I have heard similarly stupid explanations on CNBC from people who really should know better.
Some Investor Guy Mon Mar 16 18:52:37 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
"end the corporate liability shield for the directors of financial corporations"
Hey Otis, how about just requiring that most of their bonuses be held in escrow for several years. If the company has an accounting scandal, or goes bankrupt, or end up in a Federal bailout, they don't get the rest of the money. That could lead to considerably more long-term thinking.
Getting rid of the liability shield would mean a lot of people just wouldn't serve on boards. You would be left with people with name recognition but few assets.
Some Investor Guy Mon Mar 16 18:56:21 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Some Investor Guy,
Larry Summers claims that nothing can be done about the AIG bonuses. As a former Secretary of the Treasury, he should know better.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner should direct the Commissioner of Internal Revenue to challenge the AIG bonuses as unreasonable compensation under the Internal Revenue Code. Finding the AIG bonuses to be unreasonable compensation would render them nondeductible for federal tax purposes, and would strengthen potential shareholder derivative suits to recapture The Great AIG Giveaway.
Section 162(a) of the Internal Revenue Code declares:
“There shall be allowed as a deduction all the ordinary and necessary expenses paid or incurred during the taxable year in carrying on any trade or business, including . . . a reasonable allowance for salaries or other compensation for personal services actually rendered.”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 18:58:06 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
hey staffers!
Next month equities and energy will both fall in price and it's because you're dirty dirty sinners
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 19:05:39 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
When Smart People Do Dumb Things
CRbot Mon Mar 16 19:06:27 2009 CDT #
Cheelah says:
Today went to an investment group meeting. Haven't been in a while. Participants are mostly middle class retired folks. Mood was very glum - more so than usual. Had a guest speaker who said basically that there is no safe place to put what cash you may have.
At the end. we decided that, if we are going to end up eating cat food in our golden years, we might as well live it up and eat caviar for the next couple of months.
Cheelah Mon Mar 16 19:06:53 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Why does the tone of this interview make me think that people are listening to Jim Rogers more?
Jim Rogers is like Peter Schiff. They could see the problem, but their recommended solutions were massively hazardous to your wealth.
Both Rogers and Schiff recommended buying commodities and foreign equities to protect wealth from the fallout of the financial crises. They also said the dollar would tank. Total idiocy. Roger's and Schiff's clients lost more than passive stock market investors. I can do without that kind of expertise.
More often than not, doing nothing is the best option. True fire sales and good deals are few and far between.
Beware of snake oil salesmen!
Angry Saver Mon Mar 16 19:06:54 2009 CDT #
mp says:
Florence- "CR went to a blog party..."
It just makes me all weepy to hear that the likes of the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal don't consider blogs respectable.
NOTE TO WSJ- I stopped reading your rag in 1969.
mp Mon Mar 16 19:09:30 2009 CDT #
cd says:
angry-Beware of snake oil salesmen!
outside of jon stewart right? Also you sure that cindy crawford doesnt have a infomercial where she's extolling on the virtues of snake oil regarding wrinkles..
cd Mon Mar 16 19:09:52 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Today went to an investment group meeting. Haven't been in a while.
My dad gets invitations to go to these things all the time. Even though he literally doesn't understand what they're saying, he goes for the free food :-D
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 19:10:19 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Credit Card Defaults at 20 Year-High
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/credit-card-defaults-at-20-year-high.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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CRbot Mon Mar 16 19:11:01 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
EHP,
I'd bet the house that ALL the AIG bonus guarantees were predicated on the employees NOT being terminated for cause.
If $160 billion in losses is NOT a proper CAUSE for termination I don't know what is.
This is a shakedown. A looting. I say put the AIG employees on Riker's Island for a night (general pop). See if that changes their attitudes.
Angry Saver Mon Mar 16 19:12:09 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
OT,
"Fair Economist says:
Today, 10:14:28 AM
“CNBC is running clips of the politiclowns claiming outrage for AIG bonuses. When they gave the money to any of these banks or insurance cos. they missed putting in a limit or no bonuses policy.
The AIG giveaway $170 billion giveaway was done purely by the Fed and the Executive Branch. Congress had no say whatsoever. They weren't even asked. It's blatantly against the Constitution, which gives the power of the purse to Congress (with a priority to the House), although they excuse it on the slippery legal basis of the Federal Reserve."
AIG received Tarp money that congress voted to approved Paulson to administer. Barny Frank screamed to the public that there where over sites in the bill. Since they have no clue who got what and how it was being used. Obvious there where no over sites in the bill. That leaves Politiclowns in the DA corner. Wonder why the out rage of the people and OB is dumb founded? We are being played by DC. :-P
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 16 19:14:54 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
heheh... Option ARM meltdown in 1 Year
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 19:59:17 2009 CDT #
1 currency [yogi] says:
Still giving 7-5 Paulson is in exile or indicted before 2010
1 currency [yogi] Mon Mar 16 20:22:57 2009 CDT #
Johnny Dangereaux says:
I don't think the graph goes far enough back to be useful...a once-in-a-lifetime event can't be judged just going back to 1985....not my lifetime anyway!
(Though Raygun-era prices might be a good bottom for now)
Johnny Dangereaux Mon Mar 16 23:52:58 2009 CDT #
END