Comments for Inventory Correction
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3335881195257262789
CRbot Sat Mar 14 16:11:34 2009 MST #
Hymns for the Lord says:
CR,
I have a request about the comments system:
I have to go to the bottom of each comment page and turn threading on. What would be nice is if this setting could be remembered. Once I turn threading on for comments of one article, a cookie ought to remember this and turn threading on automatically for the other articles' comments too.
Thanks for all your efforts. The "education" you and some of your site's participants provide is invaluable.
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Mad Mullah says:
AIG "obligated" to give more than 100 M in bonuses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?_r=1&hp
Outrageous.
Parent Post
Mad Mullah Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
S says:
inventory correction is one sde of the coin demand is the other, inventopry to sales ratio is flat afte a big spike in bsuiness inventories. So yes inventory is resetting lower but demand will be lower. Also in the GD1 industrial production droped 50%. It is down mid singles here and in the rest of world is tanking 15-50%. So we have a lot of catching up to do on that front, even if we are somewhat insultated form the dire drops (Ukraine etc).
S Sat Mar 14 16:17:56 2009 MST #
Trance says:
OT,
How does one trillion look like?
http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
Trance Sat Mar 14 16:25:02 2009 MST #
MrM says:
It was revision of the inventory build-up that led to the major revision down of Q4 GDP. The inventory levels are going down fast - that's just-in-time inventory management for you
MrM Sat Mar 14 16:25:24 2009 MST #
Mark2Madoff says:
"The good news is a significant inventory correction will help with GDP later in the year."
I also heard the rumor that the consumer is ready to spring back into action. I forget where exactly but I think it was on CNBC.
Mark2Madoff Sat Mar 14 16:26:57 2009 MST #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
When Smart People Do Dumb Things
CRbot Sat Mar 14 16:29:28 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"I also heard the rumor that the consumer is ready to spring back into action. I forget where exactly but I think it was on CNBC."
We need a new stove and refrigerator. We need some plastering and painting indoors. Isn't that helpful?
Pavel Sat Mar 14 16:37:29 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Make sure they weren't made in China, Pavel.
Parent Post
Lawyerliz Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Anonymous says:
Jim Cramer's full explanation of stock market manipulation
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10196471-62.html
Anonymous Sat Mar 14 16:39:33 2009 MST #
Calculated Risk says:
Mark2Madoff, I wouldn't expect consumption to "bounce back" - I think we should be happy if consumption stops falling off a cliff.
best wishes.
Calculated Risk Sat Mar 14 16:42:40 2009 MST #
REBear says:
Rioting follows arrests in N. Ireland soldier killingsStory Highlights
Petrol bombs hurled at police after arrests in connection with soldiers' killings
Three arrested over slayings of two soldiers in Northern Ireland last week
Three men also being held in Monday's killing of police officer
source cnn
REBear Sat Mar 14 16:43:10 2009 MST #
popeye says:
OT - energyecon,
"There were 392 box ships of 1.1 million TEUs, or 8.8 percent of the world fleet, without work in mid-February, according to AXS-Alphaliner, a Paris-based consultant that tracks laid-up tonnage."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2206707/posts
popeye Sat Mar 14 16:48:44 2009 MST #
Paradigm Lost says:
CBot: Madoff was a crook. I would argue that the financial advisors had a fiduciary responsiblity and the FDIC had a regulatory responsibility. They didn't do their jobs. In my opinion, it doesn't matter whether the clients were savvy or not. If you want trust in the system, the advisors and regulators should do the job they're paid to do. Don't blame the clients.
Paradigm Lost Sat Mar 14 16:49:04 2009 MST #
popeye says:
TEU BINGO - chart porn and everything; my job for this evening is finished - pass the Beefeaters
http://www1.axsmarine.com/public/publicTOP100.php
popeye Sat Mar 14 16:52:26 2009 MST #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
great find popeye,
I just looked through a few stories and found a story on AXS marine's report as of June 2008 for the sake of comparison over time
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10418&Itemid=31
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Black Star Ranch says:
If there are regulations regarding ANYTHING, then the regulators are responsible. Too many times laws, statutes, ordinances, requirements, and/or executive orders have been passed and subsequently not enforced. My assertion is they shouldn't have been passed in the first place.
Black Star Ranch Sat Mar 14 16:55:34 2009 MST #
Anonymous says:
AIG plans to disclose CDS counterparties
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN596920090314
Need to slap a windfall profit tax on those clowns.
Anonymous Sat Mar 14 16:55:41 2009 MST #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
energyecon / popeye
try searching "lay up" or "laid up" in the search box @ http://www.marinebiztv.com/news.php
it seems to index a lot of shipping news sites
EvilHenryPaulson Sat Mar 14 16:58:59 2009 MST #
norma says:
I wouldn't expect consumption to "bounce back" - I think we should be happy if consumption stops falling off a cliff.
best wishes.
CR, where did best wishes come from. I've worked for lawyers for over 20 years and in the past three years they have been using that salutation, before that the most polite one was sincerely ...
norma Sat Mar 14 17:00:25 2009 MST #
Paradigm Lost says:
The longer Cramer clip is more damning than that the shorter shown by Stewart.
Anyone invested long-term in this market is foolish. Actually, ANYONE playing this market is a fool, unless they're on the inside. Buncha crooks.
Paradigm Lost Sat Mar 14 17:01:21 2009 MST #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Thanks so much to the shipping link posting Popeye and Evil Henry Paulson. Thank you for sharing!
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Sat Mar 14 17:02:38 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
I wonder what the connection is between AIG announcing today that it will disclose its CDS counterparties and the WaPo story about Geithner writing to them Wednesday to protest AIG giving out almost $10 Million in bonuses.
Bernanke and Geithner refused to disclose the counterparties in the face of Congressional demands. Now AIG says it will disclose the information. Hmmmm. Does AIG think this is a threat to Geithner and Bernanke?
This is kind of crap that happens in partial nationalization: all the burden, none of the control, and so management continues to take advantage, bargain like terrorists, and loot the company.
This is the generic kind of thing that I think will ultimately push the Admn to take full pre-privatizing control of the AIGs and the Citigroups.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 17:05:16 2009 MST #
Mark2Madoff says:
Mark2Madoff, I wouldn't expect consumption to "bounce back" - I think we should be happy if consumption stops falling off a cliff.
apologies for putting words in your mouth -
Mark2Madoff Sat Mar 14 17:14:00 2009 MST #
popeye says:
EHP,
Thanks. By the by - the following link goes to a picture of a container ship. The "small" red and white boat in front is 105 feet long.
http://www.boatingsf.com/photopage.php?photo=790
popeye Sat Mar 14 17:16:32 2009 MST #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
container ships are the condo towers of the seas
shipyards are screwed one way or the other for a long time
EvilHenryPaulson Sat Mar 14 17:20:01 2009 MST #
blonderengel says:
Poem for the weekend...
A Fighting Chance to be Lucky
If it’s not super-termites, or sharks, avian
Flu, vanishing white women, nuclear arms, smokeless
Tobacco, the pole caps, the Poles in general, then this
Clearly isn’t the time to leave the lights on, most all
Cave exploration got cancelled. I’m barely interested
In anything more than an inch under dirt. I don’t want to know.
If I did, I would tell, I swear/affirm by any some
Or no thing, I would. And where would that get us. Back
To the start: just say it. The game is rigged. Someone’s
Got the magnet so close to the signal you’d think they had
The hots for each other--front page news
Some years back. Someone got fired or let go or downsized
To struggle with important family business, in any case,
He was, as we should be able to say, toast, buttered
Side smearing the cloth. It was raining nails. Or cats and dogs
Without tails. I’m not clear on the details. But I wrote it all down,
Or I will one of these days. Sometimes you have to
Throw the light on the subject slanted, turn the wheel slowly
To a different angle. Sometimes, the flaw isn’t readily
Apparent. Sometimes a strategic call to a higher authority
Is helpful. Sometimes not. No matter what the store has in mind
For a fair price, it’s more about getting the biggest bang from the next
So-called expert on the subject. They don’t advertise much,
And that immediately draws suspicion. Our entire clan is infected.
blonderengel Sat Mar 14 17:26:47 2009 MST #
donailin says:
"I also heard the rumor that the consumer is ready to spring back into action. I forget where exactly but I think it was on CNBC."
I've been waiting to buy a new car since January. My Credit Union advised me to pay off my revolving debt to put me into the FICO bucket that would qualify me for 5% APR. One more month, I figure, and I will be revolving-debt free and driving a new a car with very affordable payments. Also, I have more work than I can handle right now I am actually considering having to hire someone. I'm just waiting for the green light to spend and hire.
I don't know if there is a good percentage of folks like me who are waiting but I'd like to be part of the solution . Just waiting for the green light. .
donailin Sat Mar 14 17:28:21 2009 MST #
avl dao says:
I'd like to re-affirm that firms not in a position to hire or unable to avoid layoffs are not, by default, 'part of the problem' or the problem. Ditto for municipal budgets. Ditto for households that are not in a position to spend above necessities.
We need to stop acting as if this stuff is all psychological. There's nothing 'voluntary' or psychological about a firm that's lost 30% of sales revenues or a 1-earner household facing 10 more years of student loan payments for both the worker and the recenly laid-off.
Parent Post
avl dao Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Anonymous says:
"Also, I have more work than I can handle right now I am actually considering having to hire someone. I'm just waiting for the green light to spend and hire. "
You can take the work from the people 'going Galt.' Apparently they don't need the work.
Anonymous Sat Mar 14 17:33:49 2009 MST #
Jas says:
--
That is what I did in March 2000 for the most part. Why feed the Crooks?
Born-and-bred Americans are bred to feed the Crooks and feel like they are being good Americans in the process, e.g., voting and buying Scams.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
The Daily Bail says:
I have been building this post all day. There are 12 stories inside so far. Photos and economic cartoons are included.
Some of the economic and market stuff you might have missed this week.
http://bit.ly/1a25eB
"Bailout News, Photos & Cartoons For March 7th-14th: Everything We Missed And Then Some"
The Daily Bail Sat Mar 14 17:40:36 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
"You can take the work from the people 'going Galt.'"
The Galt meme is not as large as it appears.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=galt_meme
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 17:41:21 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
"The Galt meme is not as large as it appears. "
We are not yet in enough pain for us to see this happening. I have serious doubts that his cycle will be severe enough to force the intelligent onto the sidelines. There is a lot more to come before that happens.
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
popeye says:
Oh nooooo..... More TEU chart porn [ok, it's not "exactly" on topic; but it's porn]:
http://download.hellenicshippingnews.com/pdf/BRS/tnl-613-2.pdf
VLCC = very large crude carrier
pdf source:
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=28&Itemid=52
popeye Sat Mar 14 17:45:16 2009 MST #
peAk says:
Not sure of the dynamics but at the end of the pipeline merchandise on store shelves is thinning out, and it's not from increased demand. I see surprising empty shelf spaces at WMT, BBY and grocers, and my understanding is that during the credit-consumption boom, suppliers were fighting to get product space on those crowded shelves, but no more. Asked clerk in empty HD where the cordless phones were and he replied "aisle 10, if we have any", and I got one of the last two. I see shortages coming, and not just taxpayers.
peAk Sat Mar 14 17:51:39 2009 MST #
RayOnTheFarm says:
EHP, rule 1... all containers should remain vertcial while attached to the ship.
http://cargolaw.com/images/disaster2008.Jeppesen5.jpg
More container ship porn at http://cargolaw.com/gallery.html
RayOnTheFarm Sat Mar 14 18:00:53 2009 MST #
Morocco Bama says:
We need a new stove and refrigerator. We need some plastering and painting indoors. Isn't that helpful?
Will you be paying cash for that? If so, goody for you, but not so goody for the majority of people who have to use credit to pay for such necessities. Where will they be getting this credit?
Morocco Bama Sat Mar 14 18:03:51 2009 MST #
Morocco Bama says:
Born-and-bred Americans are bred to feed the Crooks and feel like they are being good Americans in the process, e.g., voting and buying Scams.
So true, Jas, and I suppose that's CR's unwitting assumption. Born & Bred Dopes will go into personal hock again so long as the debt trough is offered to them, creating yet more bubbles in the process. The recent increase in the savings rate statistic was purely involuntary.
Morocco Bama Sat Mar 14 18:09:29 2009 MST #
Morocco Bama says:
CR, where did best wishes come from. I've worked for lawyers for over 20 years and in the past three years they have been using that salutation, before that the most polite one was sincerely ...
You have to laugh at some of these salutations. I'm not sullying CR, but some assholes will sign off with "Best Wishes" after metaphorically shoving a fist up your ass. Personally, my "Best Wish" is to just drop the act.
Morocco Bama Sat Mar 14 18:15:12 2009 MST #
dreadlord76 says:
For people who has been acting responsibly, Credit is available out there for basic home improvements. I haven't had any CC company telling me they cut my line, probably because I don't use what they offered me already.
For people who absolutely needs credit to buy $500 worth of stuff, Don't Buy What YOu Can't Afford!
dreadlord76 Sat Mar 14 18:23:09 2009 MST #
otishertz says:
morocco you got capitulatus?
otishertz Sat Mar 14 18:31:47 2009 MST #
otishertz says:
capitulatitis
otishertz Sat Mar 14 18:36:13 2009 MST #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"morocco you got capitulatus?"
I had that once. A little amoxycillin cleared it right up. :-[
Seriously, I want to know if Morocco's avatar is a photo of him. I like the panache (or is it spinache?)
ATM card and $19 in the bank Sat Mar 14 18:36:28 2009 MST #
d4of11 says:
A.I.G. to Pay $100 Million in Bonuses After Huge Bailout
Despite being bailed out with more than $170 billion from the
Treasury and Federal Reserve, the American International
Group is preparing to pay about $100 million in bonuses to
executives in the same business unit that brought the company
to the brink of collapse last year.
d4of11 Sat Mar 14 18:42:16 2009 MST #
mock turtle says:
link? please
Parent Post
mock turtle Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
alex black says:
Re: last thread: EHP - "What Hu said? Wen? (best names ever)"
No, I can top those. A few years ago a Chinese cargo ship died outside San FRancisco and had to be towed into dock. We all had a good laugh when we learned the name of the ship was the Bum Dong. We got a better laugh when we learned that the captain's name was Wee Wang.
alex black Sat Mar 14 18:42:41 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
The stove and refrigerator we need to replace are at least thirty years old. The stove is an antique and keeps needing replacement parts; we don't want to keep the old fridge chugging away until it breaks down. Our house is 90 years old and keeps adjusting itself to gravity, so plastering and painting are over-due. We don't take vacations, don't eat out, and don't go to films or shows. We're happy enough with our books, computers and walks in the national park nearby. Should we let the house fall down around our ears out of a sense of guilt? MB?
Pavel Sat Mar 14 18:46:28 2009 MST #
dreadlord76 says:
Use Craigslist. You will find Fridge and Stoves much cheaper than new.
Plastering and painting can be done by yourself, much cheaper than hiring out.
Good luck!
Parent Post
dreadlord76 Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Money Man says:
Consumer correction...They should put the "empty" containers to a better use. Like housing for those who have recently become jobless and homeless. How about that for your "green" economy?
Money Man Sat Mar 14 18:51:42 2009 MST #
d4of11 says:
The bonuses will be paid to executives at American International Group’s Financial Products division, the unit that wrote trillions of dollars’ worth of credit-default swaps that protected investors from defaults on bond backed by subprime mortgages.
d4of11 Sat Mar 14 18:53:34 2009 MST #
mock turtle says:
from the aig bonus story...
"But Mr. Liddy defended the need to continue paying bonuses if A.I.G. was going to unwind the rest of its disastrous mortgage-related business at the lowest possible cost to taxpayers.
“We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued and arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury,” he wrote Mr. Geithner. The government owns nearly 80 percent of the company."
im sure glad we are retaining these people..."the best and the brightest"...because without them we would really be ĵc÷ed
Parent Post
mock turtle Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
lama says:
I really think management at AIG thinks they and their drones are the best and brightest. I've worked in high-tech with people with PhDs from MIT who thought they were stupid, "oh, I can't understand that accounting stuff". I've worked in proximity to Wall St where everyone thought they were far more intelligent than any of those Physicists, mostly because they made more money. The Wall St crowd as a group doesn't know much about accounting either, which is another pity.
Parent Post
lama Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Pavel says:
"No, I can top those. A few years ago a Chinese cargo ship died outside San FRancisco and had to be towed into dock. We all had a good laugh when we learned the name of the ship was the Bum Dong. We got a better laugh when we learned that the captain's name was Wee Wang."
I wonder what your name means in Chinese. Or mine, for that matter.
There was the missionary to the Chinese who spoke either tonelessly or in the wrong tones. When he gave his sermons, huge crowds would gather to hear him, because he was the funniest act they had ever heard.
Or what about Jimmy Carter's first interpreter in Poland, who had the president saying that he sympathized with the sexual aspirations of the Polish people (roar of laughter from the crowd, the kid interpreter was shipped back to DC on the next available plane).
Pavel Sat Mar 14 18:53:46 2009 MST #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
"Sure, we're tired of all these brats," said Keiko Nomura, 53, who owns a shoe shop in Yokosuka. "But Japan still has money, and Japanese basically hate change."
Perhaps most nervous are the rig workers themselves. With the rig count in the Barnett Shale field down to less than 100 from a high of 227 in October — and expected to go as low as 60 before the year is over — thousands of gas field workers have already lost their jobs here.
One who is worried is Chris Stamper, 32, a derrick hand from Union, Mississippi A former furniture factory worker, he doubled his salary, to $80,000 a year, when he came to the Barnett Shale field two years ago to learn to work on a rig. Fifteen of 20 workers on Stamper's crew have already been laid off, replaced by more senior workers from other crews that were disassembled in recent weeks.
He keeps thinking about the $216,000 house he bought for his family back in Union.
I wonder if this article has an ulterior motive...
The gifts (sometimes paid for by private entrepreneurs and other times with state funds) are essentially bribes or kickbacks sent from one government official to another, and they are prohibited under Chinese law
Niall Ferguson the history professor who's been doing the crisis tour circuit is a big fan of the following story because of his romantic crush on the deceased Milton... but never mention it in public
Quillagua is among many small towns that are being swallowed up in the country's intensifying water wars. Nowhere is the system for buying and selling water more permissive than here in Chile, experts say, where water rights are private property, not a public resource, and can be traded like commodities with little government oversight or safeguards for the environment.
EvilHenryPaulson Sat Mar 14 18:54:45 2009 MST #
d4of11 says:
“We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury,” he wrote Mr. Geithner. The government owns nearly 80 percent of the company.
d4of11 Sat Mar 14 18:54:46 2009 MST #
RE says:
This story reminds me how things started in 1982 when Saudi Arabia got very angry when fellow OPEC producers didn't comply with newly set quotas.
The situation is a bit different this time as the big drop in crude prices has already happened. However, history might still repeat itself and the Saudis might just drive the price down further to again reinforce who is the boss.
Saudis Lean on OPEC to Keep Promise, Reduce Worldwide Oil Glut
OPEC’s biggest producer is pushing other members to comply with production cuts decided last year as the group meets today to confront low prices and sagging demand for oil. ...
RE Sat Mar 14 18:54:48 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"Make sure they weren't made in China, Pavel."
Is it easy any more to find things not made in China?
Pavel Sat Mar 14 18:55:19 2009 MST #
Mad Mullah says:
AIG "obligated" to give more than 100 M in bonuses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?_r=1&hp
Outrageous.
Mad Mullah Sat Mar 14 18:56:36 2009 MST #
Mad Mullah says:
AIG "obligated" to give more than 100 M in bonuses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?_r=1&hp
Outrageous.
Mad Mullah Sat Mar 14 18:56:55 2009 MST #
Mad Mullah says:
AIG "obligated" to give more than 100 M in bonuses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?_r=1&hp
Outrageous.
Mad Mullah Sat Mar 14 18:57:02 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
“We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury,” he wrote Mr. Geithner. The government owns nearly 80 percent of the company. "
Pay the firemen who risk their lives, and the EMTs who save them, the same salaries and bonuses. Cops too occasionally find themselves looking down the barrel of a gun and seeing their lives pass before them. Where are their bonuses for stopping lunatic gun-toting yahoos on the streets and roads?
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:01:06 2009 MST #
d4of11 says:
there is an echo in here.
d4of11 Sat Mar 14 19:02:54 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Mad Mullah, is really, really, really, really outraged.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:03:09 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
NYT headline says AIG bonuses are at $100 Million. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?hp
I thought the WaPo said $10 M???
Must have misread it. $10M was already outrageous. This is spectacularly outrageous.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:03:55 2009 MST #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"Is it easy any more to find things not made in China?"
As per teh google:
http://www.stillmadeinusa.com/appliances.html
Dacor and Viking are expensive, but it is what it is...
ATM card and $19 in the bank Sat Mar 14 19:04:16 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Guys, this time of year inventory is light. Now, that might be different now, what with nobody importing anything. Err, they are importing less, I think. But I really think part of it is we aren't in any kind of a shopping season at the moment.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:05:47 2009 MST #
this is real, folks says:
wow - sorry to say getting drunk and reading economic porn - what a way to spend Saturday night!
this is real, folks Sat Mar 14 19:07:11 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
"Where are their bonuses for stopping lunatic gun-toting yahoos on the streets"
I don't care how big the bonus is, I'm not taking on a cop!
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 19:08:57 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
I will say that people you are buying something from are very polite. Even obsequiously polite.
Local newspaper reports landfills are filling up last slowly.
And we ate my homegrown cabbage in slaw, and broccoli nuked. They prolly both cost twice what I coulda bought them for, but fun to go out and pick something and then eat it.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:09:34 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
"And we ate my homegrown cabbage in slaw, and broccoli nuked. They prolly both cost twice what I coulda bought them for, but fun to go out and pick something and then eat it."
Inflation you can believe in! :-D
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Pavel says:
"...walk-in coolers for preserving and defrosting game, or for storage of food and beverages. Interior lights, and optional shelving and tap systems. For indoor or outdoor residential use."
Thanks, although our kitchen itself is about the size of a small walk-in cooler. As for game, there are the neighbors' cats, but we have to live around here.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:10:05 2009 MST #
d4of11 says:
i wanna be one of 'the best and the brightest'
where does a person sign-up for that anyway?
d4of11 Sat Mar 14 19:11:11 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
No being mean to cats Pavel. :(
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:11:27 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"No being mean to cats Pavel"
Just kidding, Liz. I won't even look at the Humane Society magazine because of the sad stories.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:13:10 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
If someone sez you are best and brightest, you almost certainly aren't.
When it's time to restock the inventory, where is it gonna come from?
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:13:20 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
"If someone sez you are best and brightest, you almost certainly aren't. "
You just hurt my ego.
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Mad Mullah says:
Weird.
Have no idea how that posted so many times. Never used to do that on.., well, never mind.
Mad Mullah Sat Mar 14 19:14:01 2009 MST #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
"The good news is a significant inventory correction will help with GDP later in the year."
Maybe not so much.
Sure, we all know demand will be lower, likely a LOT lower than most will acknowledge. However, the makeup of that lowered demand will be radically different. Americans have indulged in all manner of excesses they couldn't really afford before and certainly cannot now.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Sat Mar 14 19:14:55 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
I am growing organic catnip for ours. Lazy little buggers. Also, planted a tiny bok choy plant. gotta plant the sunflower seeds. I never harvest them. The birds & squirrels get to them first, and it is hilarious watching when both a bird and squirrel are fighting over the seeds at the same time.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:15:57 2009 MST #
Elrod says:
What are these AIG scumbags being compensated for? Figuring out a clever way to rip off the taxpayer. "Great job, Johnny! Because you got Uncle Sam to chip in $160 billion, you earned yourself $3 million in bonuses! Nobody else could the sucker taxpayers to float us."
Elrod Sat Mar 14 19:16:07 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
Ah, it is the top 50 people in the Financial Products Division (CDS shop) who are to get the $9.6 Million that the WaPo focused on, but other jokers get another $90 million, or more.
The agruments made by AIG are contractual obligations and retention. What jokes. GM does not seem to have much of a problem with contractual obligation. And retention? Who would hire those screw-ups from AIG, even if anyone was hiring, which they are not?
This is definitely the kind of issue that blood well ought to force the hand of the Administration to execute a full takeover and really clean house, then re-privatize.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:16:16 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Ah, an explanation of the difference in amounts of bonuses. Too bad, I was gonna say, what's an order of magnitude between friends?
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:18:47 2009 MST #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Yes, the depletion in inventories will set the stage for massive production when we hit the trough of this Greater Depression in 2012.
Actually, with the updated Z-1 that came out on Friday, I reran my numbers and I now see this Greater Depression reaching a trough in 2014. There is that much household debt, and it has barely begun moving down.
Either the household debt will have to come off faster than it did during the Lesser Depression, or this thing will trough only in 2014.
Quit digging the hole deeper, Geithner, Obama, and Bernanke (aka Larry, Moe, and Curly).
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Sat Mar 14 19:19:56 2009 MST #
REBear says:
"AIG bonuses are at $100 Million"
Congress is going to be 'very angry' with those AIG bonuses. Congress will hold a hearing where they will ask stupid questions.
REBear Sat Mar 14 19:19:59 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
Liz,
I just don't know anymore. I don't know.
With Merrill/BAC under investigation in NY and all the national ruckus about the bonuses up until now, how could they possibly get away with this?
I wonder, too, just how the story got out to the WaPo and NYT. Who leaked it? Someone from AIG? From Treasury? The Administration itself? Or did a reporter stumble on a piece of evidence all on her/his own? Obviously Treasury has been willing to talk with the reporters about it - that seems to be how the reporters knew the details of Geithner's correspondence (I don't think the company would have given that up). Very curious.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:24:13 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
The state is set for 'the demagogue', but there isn't a demagogue in sight. Will he make an appearance, or does this country simply not produce them?
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:24:31 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"The state is set..." stage.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:25:08 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"Obviously Treasury has been willing to talk with the reporters about it - that seems to be how the reporters knew the details of Geithner's correspondence (I don't think the company would have given that up). Very curious."
Indeed, and perhaps of some significance.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:26:56 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
A trough in 2014?
No demagogues in America?
No worries, says Obama.
Ecomomy okay now!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2206755/posts
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 19:28:56 2009 MST #
mock turtle says:
congress can, could, (but almost certainly will not) craft a tax bill that establishes a 90% rate of taxation on all bonuses paid to an individual employed by an institution that received tarp money in 2008 and 2009
mock turtle Sat Mar 14 19:29:21 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
Pavel
I think the problem is the demise of old fashioned liberal education, meaning the humanities, languages, and especially Latin. No one knows what a demagogue is anymore. Back in the 1930 the US had some great ones: Huey Long, Father Coughlin, etc. Recent years the best the country can do is Sarah Palin and the Bush family of Kennebunkport pretending to be shitkicker Texans who love to eat pork rinds. Standards have slipped mightily.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:29:29 2009 MST #
JimPortlandOR says:
AIG proves that some corp. execs have been listening well to those in Washington from the recent past who claimed they are above the law, or the law is what they say it was.
Loping off the top three layers of execs in the ten largest banks (without a parachute) would be the most cathartic thing to happen in the financial world since the bank seizures of the 1930s. Then, after they are fired, unleash some Fed. prosecutors on their previous thefts to freeze their assets until they are shown guilty or not.
JimPortlandOR Sat Mar 14 19:29:52 2009 MST #
energyecon says:
TEU BINGO - chart porn and everything; my job for this evening is finished - pass the Beefeaters
popeye, make that a double and have it on me!
energyecon Sat Mar 14 19:30:00 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
To wind the mtges down, and modify them or short sell, or whatever, you need a army of clerks. You can hire many many many many clerks for a 100 million dollars. Also, sufficient supervisors.
This is really crazy. Did somebody set this up so the death-blow can be given.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:30:55 2009 MST #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"Recent years the best the country can do is Sarah Palin and the Bush family"
What about Limbaugh?
ATM card and $19 in the bank Sat Mar 14 19:33:15 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
I think GM and Chrysler workers should demand their bonuses, too, or at least their contractually promised wages. If not, they might all quit and go to wait for work at some other closed factories, just like the AIG refugees might go wait outside the doors of Bear Stearns or Lehman.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:33:19 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
To have a change at an effective demagogue, you have to have someone who is a good rousing speaker. Hmmm, does this mean speaker from the people? Obama is the best speaker we have, but he's too cerebral to be a rabble rouser.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:34:24 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
Pavel
"I think the problem is the demise of old fashioned liberal education, meaning the humanities, languages, and especially Latin. No one knows what a demagogue is anymore. Back in the 1930 the US had some great ones: Huey Long, Father Coughlin, etc."
Yeah, and although FDR was and is detested by many, he kept this country from lifting one demagogue or another onto its shoulders and carrying him to disaster.
"I think the problem is the demise of old fashioned liberal education, meaning the humanities, languages, and especially Latin."
That, and it goes back to before that. I could get very OT here.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:36:27 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
ATM Card
My sense is that Limbaugh does not try to present himself as speaking for the downtrodden common man, but then I do not listen to him except for when excerpts are played or discussed by people dissecting him (and from them I never get the sense that the openly jet-setting, cigar eating, sex tourist drug addict presents himself as Joe Sixpack).
I could uninformed about that.
And I suppose I could have mentioned Joe the Plumber as ultimate proof.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:36:30 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Limbaugh is not a good enough speaker to be a demagouge. I will listen to ANY talk radio on my long drives, and I couldn't bear to listen to him anymore, because he was boring.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:36:38 2009 MST #
JimPortlandOR says:
I'm all for a 'banker's license' with provisions similar to a driver's license that assets points for banking infractions and idiot management of other people's money. Exceed the point limits and you can't work as a banker in a federally insured bank. Let them go to a Community College and learn a new skill, like many millions of others that are jobless because the bankers were greedy, selfish and arrogant.
JimPortlandOR Sat Mar 14 19:36:44 2009 MST #
JimPortlandOR says:
asseses points, that is
Parent Post
JimPortlandOR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Pavel says:
"The Galt meme is not as large as it appears. "
What is it?
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:38:49 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
Pavel
Space in the comment box is free. Wail away. Some ears are sympathetic.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:39:12 2009 MST #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"Paradigm Lost says:Today, 3:49:04 PM PDT
CBot: Madoff was a crook. I would argue that the financial advisors had a fiduciary responsiblity and the FDIC had a regulatory responsibility. They didn't do their jobs"
100% agree , hope they won't get away without a lawsuit or dozen.
Comrade De Chaos Sat Mar 14 19:39:41 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
"We are not yet in enough pain for us to see this happening"
I traced the origins of the meme. It ws pushed in Oct, 2008 by "Dr Helen" and picked up by Michelle Malkin. If the ground is fertile, it will propagate naturally but I think the odds favor that it will die out shortly.
http://drhelen.blogspot.com/2008/10/going-john-galt.html
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 19:39:42 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Well, I think politicos should have an IQ test before they can run, and it has to be over 100.
The VP at this S&L I represented in the 80s said to me proudly that he didn't understand the terms of their new product--which was adjustible and negatively amortizing. I had read the damned thing about 6 times to understand it, and trust me, nobody who signed it understood it either. I would have explained, but it was so clear that he didn't want to understand, that I didn't try. I did try to explain to the poor suckers who were signing, but it was pretty hopeless. I told them their mortgage balance would go up. I mentioned the word foreclosure emphatically enough that I would have been fired had manage ment heard me. Nobody ever refused to sign.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:42:22 2009 MST #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
There is that much household debt, and it has barely begun moving down.
That's the key, jg, and unfortunately you won't hear that anywhere in DC, FED-land, or in the media. This depression will be a long one, and (again) worst than the first.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Sat Mar 14 19:42:38 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
Rocky R
It is much worse than that, for the phrase "best and the brightest" should immediately call to mind David Halberstam's devastating account of the JFK/LBJ braintrust and their brilliant path into Vietnam.
Even if AIG hadn't lost so many hundreds of billions, the mere fact that their chairman would use that phrase to mean praise is reason enough for him to be fired.
Halberstam must be rolling in his grave. He would have been a great chronicler of this nightmare.
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:44:32 2009 MST #
Longhorn says:
Since the U.S. owns 80% of AIG, I don't see how those bonus contracts are valid anymore. Why is it salary contracts can't be broken on Wall Street, but are easily broken for blue collar workers? Oh yes, must retain the 'talent' that got them into this debt hole.
Longhorn Sat Mar 14 19:44:48 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Sorry Rocky.
If you really believe you are best etc, I will not take your cookie away from you.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:45:02 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
"If you really believe you are best etc, I will not take your cookie away from you."
Hahaha!! Thank you.
I had to give up on that delusion a few years ago. It was tough. Mom always told me I was special. Unfortunately, I misinterpreted what she meant...
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Pavel says:
"Pavel
Space in the comment box is free. Wail away. Some ears are sympathetic."
Secularized societies are rootless, doomed to horrible transformations. I know you can't force people to believe what they don't believe. But then, consequences will not be denied.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:46:38 2009 MST #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"Is it easy any more to find things not made in China?"
will be a bit easier starting next year. New push by administration to protect safety of US consumers that was announced today has one major purpose - protection of local food & basic consumer staple industry.
(they took a hint from S, Koreans who successfully banned our meat products. O:-)
Comrade De Chaos Sat Mar 14 19:47:13 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
" think politicos should have an IQ test before they can run, and it has to be over 100"
I think we can safely assume that all our representatives have IQs over 100.
I think the restriction should be LESS than 100, not greater.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 19:47:28 2009 MST #
Dust Bowling for Dollars says:
Buzz Windrip is out there - and very well could be in Kansas, who knows?
Dust Bowling for Dollars Sat Mar 14 19:47:46 2009 MST #
kidbuck says:
"$10M was already outrageous. This is spectacularly outrageous."
It's not outrageous, it's tribute due. Don't you know how many of these geniuses went to Harvard? Don't you know how much they gave to the OHB campaign?
Why get excited about anything less than a trillion?
kidbuck Sat Mar 14 19:51:32 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"Mom always told me I was special. Unfortunately, I misinterpreted what she meant..."
There are some really bright people here.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 19:52:31 2009 MST #
Anonymous says:
"There are some really bright people here."
I think Kidbuck is 'special.'
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Hahahahahaha, Broward.
Has anyone devised an ethical IQ test?
I read or heard somewhere of a test devised by a seminary for their students. They were lectured about the good Samaritan, and then rushed away to take a test, or write a sermon or something for a grade.
The sneaky professors had the route infested with people needing help and few to none stopped. Seems like they failed both a practical intelligence AND moral IQ test at once.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:54:46 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
"What is it?"
"Going Galt" refers to an event in Atlas Shrugged where the "Best and Brightest" deprive the rest of us of their creative genius.
No, really.
Stop laughing.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 19:55:10 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
""Going Galt" refers to an event in Atlas Shrugged where the "Best and Brightest" deprive the rest of us of their creative genius. "
I think if the Engineers stopped working, you wouldn't laugh.
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Sad but true, tj.
Me, I say shitcan the 'Best and brightest' -- what a great track record they have -- and hire the 'Pensive and less expensive.' They could only do better.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Sat Mar 14 19:56:47 2009 MST #
joe shmoe says:
The AP now puts the AIG bonuses at $165 Million.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/03/14/washington/AP-AIG-Bonuses.html
joe shmoe Sat Mar 14 19:58:13 2009 MST #
Anonymous says:
Reflections on the latest dead cat bounce or bear market sucker’s rally
the latest from Roubini
It is déjà vu all over again. We have already seen this Groundhog Day movie at least six times over and over again in the last year or so: the market starts to rally – this time around about 8% in a week - and the chorus of optimists starts to say that this is the bottom of the economic and financial crisis and that we are at the beginning of a sustained stock market rally that signals the true end of this bear market.
Even before the latest bear market rally started last week...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rally
Anonymous Sat Mar 14 19:58:18 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Seriously, the idea of the bright and talented going on strike is not such a bad fantasy idea. It is one of the least objectively (!) ( ;)) objectional parts of Atlas.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 19:58:52 2009 MST #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
A Token Reining in of AIG Bonuses (Banana Republic Watch)
CRbot Sat Mar 14 19:59:19 2009 MST #
nova says:
I just found out my sister is in foreclosure. Not a speculator. It was all about HELOC.
Anyways... I wrote another chapter about what life is going to be like after the economy crashes.
Excerpt:
The common areas were unkempt. Street signs, like a Stop sign, and a No Parking sign had been hit and were either mangled or snapped off at the base. They had not been replaced. Trash was scattered on both sides of the road. The street gutter had not been cleaned out of the past winters sand and oak leafs. Graffiti had been spray painted on the sides of empty buildings and had not cleaned off. The business district looked like it had gotten ready for the arrival of a hurricane and then decided not to take down the plywood when it had passed. People were drinking in public and not bothering to hide it. On one corner a black man, dressed in clean clothes, and otherwise normal looking was screaming “God Bless You” over and over. This was punctuated by fits of laughter and wide grins. He was probably the happiest guy in town.
For more, plus posts by other CR people
http://afterthecrash.net
nova Sat Mar 14 20:01:17 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Pensive and less expensive.
I like it.
It's very me.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 20:01:33 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
It's amusing that the greatest proponents of the Free Market don't actually believe in the market if they think that Going Galt can work. By definition, no single participant of the market can affect its outcome.
Only through collective action can the Randos achieve their goal, which is.... antitheical to their religion.
It is quite amazing to behold.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 20:02:29 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
"Only through collective action can the Randos achieve their goal, which is.... antitheical to their religion. "
Have you read the book?
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Agreed, rocky.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 20:03:27 2009 MST #
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:
Liz, if you are happy, I am happy!
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Sat Mar 14 20:03:49 2009 MST #
Pavel says:
"Going Galt" refers to an event in Atlas Shrugged where the "Best and Brightest" deprive the rest of us of their creative genius.
No, really.
Stop laughing."
I'm sure I read that book many decades ago. I don't remember any of it.
I'm trying to think if I've ever met any creative geniuses. One at least, Ted Taylor, who was a genius at miniaturizing nuclear weapons. Afterward, he highly regretted his period of creativity, at least to the extent of exhibiting, and probably feeling, remorse.
He told me a story that he'd recounted elsewhere, that in the 80s he stood on the exact spot in Red Square that he'd designated as ground zero. He looked around at the grandmas, the couples with baby strollers, the kids eating ice cream, and burst into tears.
Human life is so precious, so unique. It's been brought home to me with particular force lately.
There is creativity for death, and creativity for life.
Pavel Sat Mar 14 20:05:34 2009 MST #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
"Going Galt" refers to an event in Atlas Shrugged where the "Best and Brightest" deprive the rest of us of their creative genius.
No, really.
Stop laughing.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 19:55:10 2009 MST
Except in Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand's idea of the best and brightest are all - wait for it - CEOs and bankers.
Oddly enough, though that main premise is flawed, the current continuing downward spiral and the government's ham-handed and corrupt interference with the market could have come straight from Atlas Shrugged.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Sat Mar 14 20:05:59 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
"Except in Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand's idea of the best and brightest are all - wait for it - CEOs and bankers. "
I don't remember. What was the name of the banker character's name, again?
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Midas Mulligan. :-E
Parent Post
Lawyerliz Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
RockyR says:
Midas Mulligan.
thanks.
was that a belch emoticon?
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
They each, separately and individually decided to go on strike together.
Rand was off the deep end, but she never thought people couldn't or shouldn't freely work together or make contracts together.
Hmmm, since Randism is a religion, was Galt's Gulch a religious or secular society?
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 20:06:33 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
"I think if the Engineers stopped working, you wouldn't laugh"
If the Engineers stop working collectively, they are no longer "rugged individualists" but become the striking automotive workers that they hate so much.
Rand's book appeal to a certain level of Ego and under-achievement. I noticed years ago that Atlas Shtrugged is often the bible of a second-rater who's convinced that the government prevented him from being an first-stringer. Rand's book appeals to their ego.
It's kind of simultaneously amusing and depressing.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 20:07:46 2009 MST #
I Heart CRbot says:
I thought that book was great when I was 13.
I Heart CRbot Sat Mar 14 20:08:22 2009 MST #
I Heart CRbot says:
I thought that book was great when I was 13.
I Heart CRbot Sat Mar 14 20:08:57 2009 MST #
dr munch says:
Lawyerliz: I love the term rabble rouser. I haven't heard it since the 80's when my grandpa was around. 23 skidoo!
dr munch Sat Mar 14 20:09:38 2009 MST #
nova says:
that was me trying the haloscan look a like which posted the "I read it at 13" Back to the other comment system
nova Sat Mar 14 20:10:17 2009 MST #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Roubini: "Reflections on the latest sucker’s rally"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/roubini-reflections-on-latest-suckers.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to http://realize.org/cr then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.
--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
CRbot Sat Mar 14 20:12:03 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
"Have you read the book?"
Heck, no. I debated the Randos for years on the inherent contradictions in their own religion, not on its religious amendments and the empirical evidence of 2000 years. Governments always exist, have always existed and if you're going to create a new gold era where they don't, you damn well better having a working model that... works.
I've discovered over the years that many of the Randos are motivated by drug use. :)
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 20:12:19 2009 MST #
nova says:
Well if the Software Engineers quit working the Internet would be faster. There wouldnt be a zillion people downloading bux fixes
nova Sat Mar 14 20:12:20 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
The trouble with Rand is that in real life, the good are often stupid and ineffectual, and the bad are often clever and creative. Not always of course. Rand's bad guys even have ugly squooshy names like Mouch and Elsworth Tooey. I liked Atlas for quite a long time. After all our books were destroyed in Hurricane Andrew, we bought a new Atlas, and I sat down to read it because I hadn't in years.
And I couldn't read it.
It was awful.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 20:13:19 2009 MST #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
Hmmm, since Randism is a religion, was Galt's Gulch a religious or secular society?
Lawyerliz
Ironic in the extreme, because Rand was against all religion, with its mysticism and faith.
So strange that her followers believe so blindly in the "invisible hand" of the free market.
Also strange that Alan Grenspan numbered himself among her followers. The only part he absorbed apparently was "government regulation bad" - even while he massively screwed with the money supply.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Sat Mar 14 20:13:23 2009 MST #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
I don't remember. What was the name of the banker character's name, again?
RockyR
Michael "Midas" Mulligan.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Sat Mar 14 20:15:13 2009 MST #
Counterpointer says:
Wow, you take a nap, and all hell breaks loose.
The message on inventory is precisely correlated to the trade story. As I posted several weeks ago "welcome to the age of inventory", there is going to be a huge drawdown in what we already have, and that will play thru to the international trade numbers.
C
Counterpointer Sat Mar 14 20:15:26 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Yep, yep, yep threads.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 20:15:51 2009 MST #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
I thought that book was great when I was 13.
Ditto. I got over it. Nothing like watching real capitalists to turn you off on pure capitalism.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Sat Mar 14 20:17:07 2009 MST #
Broward Horne says:
By definition, a "free market" assumes equal access to all information for everyone. Also by definition, a "economy of specialization", like what we have now, implicitly requires that access to information be DENIED to many people in order to optimize production.
Rand's free market theory doesn't scale. I argued that with the Randos for several years in the 1990s. and here, and now, we see it empirically. Applying kooky-ass, wily-nily concepts to a global economy produced a huge systemic failure.
It's predictable. You can't do peer-to-peer economy for complex products. Rand's stuff works for simple products in a simple economy.
Most of the Randos can't grasp that, though, because they don't understand the basics of creating or managing complex systems.
Broward Horne Sat Mar 14 20:17:17 2009 MST #
Rob Dawg says:
There might be a different form of "going Galt" developing. The smart investors got out of the housing market and then the smart investors got out of the stock market. There's more than one way to "not participate." Why at this very moment there might be a new round of smart people unwilling to invest in the USD.
Rob Dawg Sat Mar 14 20:17:34 2009 MST #
Lawyerliz says:
Yeah, going Galt might take a completely different form than what Rand might expect.
We used to call it "dropping out".
But I am not old enough to have ever said 23 skidoo, except just now and you said it first.
Lawyerliz Sat Mar 14 20:21:04 2009 MST #
RE says:
The state is set for 'the demagogue', but there isn't a demagogue in sight. Will he make an appearance, or does this country simply not produce them?
Oh I think the U.S. produces them en masse. Don't you read this board?
It is just that in the U.S., demagogues are confined so narrowly to their ideology that they cannot find enough traction for widespread popularity.
However, this particular crisis with its high joblessness may very well produce a successful one. The anti immigration crowd has been clamoring for a long time. I'm worried that the time has come.
RE Sat Mar 14 20:24:26 2009 MST #
? says:
Ok, I give up, what's an inventory correction?
? Sat Mar 14 20:24:42 2009 MST #
lama says:
It's "right-sizing" to accomodate revised demand estimates.
Parent Post
lama Wed Dec 31 18:00:00 1969 MST #
popeye says:
Possible explanation of the shipping lay ups. China is building her own fleet.
http://inthesenewtimes.com/2009/03/13/report-presents-doomsday-scenario-for-shipping/
n.b., This is the sole source I've found for this story - so, it's yet to be confirmed.
night all.
popeye Sat Mar 14 20:31:09 2009 MST #
RockyR says:
soo... I don't remember the book that well. I thought Mulligan was the character who owned some motor company, but then gave up and sold out to a different investor who ran it into the ground.
Here is what I took from Atlas... the reasonable messages I thought she conveyed:
1. Using one's mind is more noble than using one's relationships... or "pull"
2. Creative ventures that actually CREATE something of value are more valuable than creative ventures that only seek to enrich the stakeholders - leave it to people to dictate what is valuable, and valuable things probably won't get created (at least in the right quantities)
3. Value is determined by what what other people (customers) WANT, not what someone tells them they should have
4. Taking from the strong to give to the weak can result in consequences we don't intend
5. Those of solid minds (high IQ) who can do often do work for those of weaker minds (lower IQ) who can't do (Unfortunately, I see this pattern over and over and over again in the real world)
6. Collusion between businessmen and government goons can lead to disastrous results
7. Cronyism is bad
The rest of the novel was hyperbole, extreme, and stiff. She overly demonizes government, completely ignores the importance of safety nets, pretends that average people can "fend for themselves" under any circumstance, ignores the fact that perfectly unregulated free markets create a few very wealthy and a BUNCH of people working for impoverished wages, and more...
Atlas had some relevant messages for today, but it was severely flawed. My 2 cents.
RockyR Sat Mar 14 20:44:00 2009 MST #
blonderengel says:
Data Wakes
What wakes with day and sleeps with night and what howls at moons and growls at cats and what planes come down and which stay up and which siphons get tapped and where the body lies bare and finally buried and how the saltwater finally burns, even in deserts, and what comes in from the cold, even in 90 degree Hollywood summers, a/c running all day, you ramming it up all night. Gettin’ thru like that, gettin’ to be like that, with mink capes, high blonde hair and just enough gold and platinum to match the hair and to justify the weekly trip to the salon. Attention must be paid to women like that, women who hold the history of the event, of this event and any future event like it, in the palm of their hand. They were born like that. It is in their blood, and you may put them in your book, skirting truth when necessary to protect the guilty and the ugly. And always with the skirt. Tough to find something to flatter her legs in later years, but at first, my god, them gems were gold. They were born that. An inch from driving the very expensive car up a hill to a very expensive villa overlooking the very expensive real estate of prewar California…there were hills and valleys then, and houses with kitchens with normal people cooking outside near pools with water runoff from the Sierra Madre. The mother of the mountain, surely, at some point, not pleased with the choice of career possibilities, but like any good mother resigned. Don’t misunderstand, her offspring is successful and bright and mostly out of jail. Dog racing being such a gentleman’s sport, not like that sordid affair down on the other side of the track. Dog fighting. We don’t do that here. Hear! You just hear those subtle things, my boy, but the latest rumor, my friend, but part of my on-going efforts to apply changes to every aspect of my life.
In nine inch heels everything becomes difficult,
simple steps like
going
down
stairs
require attention to the m and the n and difference might be fatal
in terms of careers. We can always jump
off the highest point of despair
Now more than ever
\t\t\t\t\t\t\tthere
blonderengel Sun Mar 15 00:32:51 2009 MST #
Anonymous says:
if the consumer is 75 percent of GNP and if the consumer does not come back due to debt problems, lack of jobs, etc, then how can the united states ever come back. imho, it is over and finished and i fail to see how anyone can conclude otherwise. the middle class is toast.
Anonymous Sun Mar 15 08:03:52 2009 MST #
END