Comments for "Another Late Night Thread"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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CRbot Thu Mar 26 23:25:50 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Onward and upward. Crisis is long over.
Nemo Thu Mar 26 23:26:04 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Nemo, thanks again for the SouthPark video. very funny.
I think the Personal Income and Outlays report is especially important this month -and the media usually reports it poorly (they compare month to month). It should be interesting ...
best wishes.
Calculated Risk Thu Mar 26 23:28:21 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
do any of you doomers get the feeling (at least sometime) that you're a Y2K nut? Every once and a while, i do...
Basel Too Thu Mar 26 23:28:30 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"do any of you doomers get the feeling (at least sometime) that you're a Y2K nut?"
Not so much. I just look at the numbers involved, from house prices, to financial services as a functon of GDP, to executive compensation and CDS outstanding.
As someone who worked in IT for as long as I have, I knew Y2K was a scam to sell computers and services. Just set the clock FW. Does it work? Yeah F-it.
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Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 23:34:46 2009 CDT #
abprosper says:
Amusingly enough I actually lost a piece of equipment to Y2K. A clock error took out an old fax machine.
And to answer the question I do not feel like its Y2K all over.
IMNSHO US is heading for a collapse. The whole mess started back in the 80's and is long overdo. The computer boom gave us a respite but we are going to be done in by a nasty trifecta of globalization, automation and funny enough the internet.
Way too much value is going to be sucked out of the system by internet driven price competition and the basically now basically free nature of the entertainment and media industries.C.F Craigslist, Blogs and the inumerble pirated media products
Even if we lock down the border and reindustrilize somehow there very soon will be no one to sell to. We can't export our way out of this mess.
The people with money who might like what we have to offer are undergoing demographic collapse. Europe (including Eastern Europe) and the developed parts of Asia have an aging population and though it matters little now the populations will not replace themselves.
The other big markets we were counting on opening to us, India and China have surplus capacity. Africa is a basket case and well South and Central America are still pretty poor and will be old before they get rich.
The best I think we could is shorten the work week, directly redistribute wealth (no programs except national health care , just cash) and strongly control trade by trading on quality only with equals. That might provide a semblence of a good life.
Now we won't do these things so in the end , well I won;t make predictions but it won't be nice. Future Americans will be much much poorer.
If we don'
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abprosper Fri Mar 27 01:43:27 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
It's a Y2K error off by a few bits
ex. 2000 + 2^3
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Anonymous Fri Mar 27 02:15:32 2009 CDT #
Clancy says:
Y2K fear stemmed from the realization that the country's infrastructure had become so complicated that no one really knew how it worked anymore. No one knew how big or small a problem a date rollover would actually be, and that ignorance made some people panic and others dismiss the concern outright. The point isn't what did or didn't happen, the point is there was no way to know.
You know, kinda like the situation with the economy right now.
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Clancy Fri Mar 27 03:37:16 2009 CDT #
octavio richetta says:
where is the people count?
octavio richetta Thu Mar 26 23:29:27 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Y2K was hilarious... I still laugh when i think about how people thought planes were going to fall out of the sky
citiprank Thu Mar 26 23:29:31 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Hey, Y2K was a great gift to short sellers.
Octavio, they are supposed to be working on it.
best to all.
Calculated Risk Thu Mar 26 23:30:50 2009 CDT #
Trainwreck says:
I seem to remember hearing Marc Faber expecting the S&P could hit 880. http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/
Trainwreck Thu Mar 26 23:32:05 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
citiprank,
Y2K was no joke. Read up on the case from a few years ago of patients dying from over-radiation during radiation therapy. Turns out the software was storing the dose level in a "short" variable. It rolled over after 256.
poic.v20 Thu Mar 26 23:34:04 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Gee, after reading the last one, I thought that was an 'open thread.'
:-P
sportsfan Thu Mar 26 23:35:19 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Poic... I get you there.. but how is that related to the date?
My first job out of college involved Y2K testing of elecment management systems on the Treasury Dept network.... (I worked for TRW)
citiprank Thu Mar 26 23:36:04 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Y2K was a bonanza for anyone that happened to know cobol.. thats for sure
citiprank Thu Mar 26 23:37:14 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
I think my old employer had issues with their dBase resource management SW as well.
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Cinco-X Fri Mar 27 07:10:37 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Y2K can't be judged properly in retrospect, simply because the crisis mentality virtually insured that what could've happened didn't.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 23:43:28 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
That's funny Basel. Yeah, it crosses my mind, as well.
It's strange, though. I didn't care about Y2k. At the time I thought it would be an interesting spectacle if the computers went haywire. But just an interesting event to watch play out nonetheless. Nonchalant would have adequtely portrayed my emotional state.
I was unqualified to make a rational prediction, anyway.
This event, however, has garnered my full attention. I'm full-on "chalant", as it were. :)
hong konger Thu Mar 26 23:43:45 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Rather than bloomberg futures I suggest we follow Bloomberg Bonds:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 23:43:47 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
citiprank,
It's just another example of the unforseen consequences of not storing data in the correct data types.
One of the space probe launces that failed was due to part of the software being written to take Kmh and another part written to take mph.
I've heard the same thing happen with centigrade/celsius errors.
What happens if a piece of tracking software in the airport tower fails because another piece of licensing software shuts down thinking the licence has expired due to a y2k date rollover error?
poic.v20 Thu Mar 26 23:43:50 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
OT: sports
So last weekend I watched Villanova completely dominate UCLA and win by 20. But I knew UCLA was undermanned this year given the dollars thrown at underclassmen by the NBA and the fact that some of them took the quick road to big bucks. Props to the seniors who stayed and will graduate.
Tonight I watched Villanova completely dominate Duke and win by 23.
'Nova was the FOURTH best team in the Big East. WOW.
sportsfan Thu Mar 26 23:45:53 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Dawg,
Any sense of how long before the "bond vigilantes" reassert themselves?
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 23:47:38 2009 CDT #
JD2B says:
i love me some open thread. If I don't land a job soon, I'm going to go full time Nemo around here.
Basel, it has been like 6 months of extra heavy doom around here, I parallel it with the Conjure clock melting. It seems roughly after that time, ambivalence set in on a lot of folks here. (Probably parallels the JS-kit move some too) Maybe it's just me.
Yes, there are some angry people now, hell, there are even more. But WTF? Where were they just 6 mo. ago? When Paulson was nationalizing Fannie and Freddie? These aren't the people that lead, they follow.
I'm not sure I have empathy or apathy these days.
{insert Emoticons out the yen-yang}
JD2B Thu Mar 26 23:47:43 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
sportsfan.
duke alum here. was painful to watch the game. yes, i thinking that both Syracuse and Louisville win tomorrow night, making it 5 out of the Elite Eight. But I think UNC wins out.
Basel Too Thu Mar 26 23:49:01 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
I don't deny Y2K was a real problem.... particularly for banks that had old software and where dates are quite important
However, I did think it was funny that people thought planes were going to fall out of the sky.
citiprank Thu Mar 26 23:49:31 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
Y2K wasn't a disaster because responsible people chose to deal with it long before it became a problem. I had to create a report in the mid 1990s and in the course of my research I had found congressional testimony dating back to the late 1980s. People running seriously critical stuff already knew about it and were planning and implementing fixes.
Would that happen now? Well, we may find out when the UNIX time rollover happens in 2038. Or will we all have switched to 64-bit operating systems by then?
Chicago Dude Thu Mar 26 23:50:17 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Cosumers will. Don't know about bank mainframes. In tech time that would be a freaking eternity.
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Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 23:58:54 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
JD2B.. what field are you in? What type of work?
citiprank Thu Mar 26 23:50:43 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
These aren't the people that lead, they follow.
There are leaders here -- intelligent, free-thinking, willing to challenge authority. But there's a time and a place for everything, and we're not quite there yet.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 23:51:44 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"But there's a time and a place for everything, and we're not quite there yet."
Nicley said. Of course being prepared both mentally and materially is key.
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Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 23:56:51 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
Thanks Rob-
So that's what we're calling a yield "curve" these days. Delightful.
hong konger Thu Mar 26 23:52:20 2009 CDT #
KR says:
On Y2K , (jan 01) i flew internationally (Caribbean) thinking it would be the safest day to fly probably ever, and that there would be lots of room. The plane was half full. It was a fun trip..
KR Thu Mar 26 23:52:38 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
JD2B,
You want a job soon, but you're still a '2B'? Not sure I follow.
Basel is right on. This place became doom-central some time ago. If I spend more than a couple hours reading CR's comments, I want to run out and buy more canned goods and ammo.
sportsfan Thu Mar 26 23:52:59 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
If I spend more than a couple hours reading CR's comments, . . . ,
Let me try that again. "If I spend more than a couple hours reading the comments made on this board after CR's blog posts, . . . .
sportsfan Thu Mar 26 23:54:55 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
I want to run out and buy more canned goods and ammo.
You say that like it's a bad thing. :-D
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 23:54:56 2009 CDT #
Comrade Coinz! says:
As another person in IT, Y2K was real for some systems. I replaced a financial system for a municipality that could not roll from fiscal 98-99 to 99-00. We tried, it failed. The vendor was out of business, the source was not available. It had to be replaced or there would have been no payroll, no AP, and no AR as of July 1, 1999.
The unknowns were embedded chips, utility control software, etc. I didn't work in those fields so I had no idea what the exposure was. I repaired or replaced all systems I had control over, and I guess most others did too, but it was not all hype to fleece business. That is not to say that there was not some fraud, but the problem was real.
Comrade Coinz! Thu Mar 26 23:56:42 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Agreed. In big iron. Embedded equipment and other specialzed hardware it was a big deal. But there was an awful lot of runway. It was relatively easy to test for, and there were plenty of fallover solutions that did not require code re-writes.
It was just very expensive if one did not or could not migrate to the alternatives and the cost of migration could be high even if you could.
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Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:09:20 2009 CDT #
Clancy says:
The unknowns were embedded chips, utility control software, etc.
Exactly. IF the embedded chips had failed in 00 then you would have had the planes falling out of the sky and man-eating hairdryers. That it didn't happen was just dumb luck, really.
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Clancy Fri Mar 27 03:43:52 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
<i>Exactly. IF the embedded chips had failed in 00 then you would have had the planes falling out of the sky and man-eating hairdryers. That it didn't happen was just dumb luck, really.</i>
-------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think dumb luck had anything to do with it. I have worked in both sides of the software realm and the attitude and mindset of the people working on the embedded side is very different. They know that once they send the thing out the door it's not coming back. You don't get to patch it or upgrade it. It's done, and it better be right. It is a job requirement to be able to scream at your boss, in front of the whole company if necessary, when your boss is wrong. Management can play their political and strategic games all they want, but when it comes to the product, you guard it as if it were your child. I worked at Delphi Automotive for a while, and every single engineer knew what might happen if the embedded controller for the antilock braking system failed. They took it seriously.
The rest of the software world is a lot more relaxed. Got a problem? We'll just fix it in version 3.1. No big deal. You can afford to be lazy.
Guess where most of the Y2K problems were...
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Chicago Dude Fri Mar 27 07:44:58 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Basel, agree . . . and not once a decade does a league dominate the way the Big East does this year.
sportsfan Thu Mar 26 23:56:47 2009 CDT #
JD2B says:
citiprank
law...or most anything that will make student loan payments
sportsfan
i want to line something up...but it's brutal out there.
JD2B Thu Mar 26 23:57:11 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Aquaintence of mine worked for the Bush admin. Talk about a hard time. Even K-Street is taking a U-Turn, I am sure.
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Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:03:58 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
yeah... JD2B.. jeez im out of it tonight... JD 2b... cant believe i didnt pick up on that.
LOL
I wonder if citibank will ever go under and force me to choose a new handle
citiprank Thu Mar 26 23:59:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Does anybody else here own long-dated Put options so as to pay smaller cap gains to Uncle Sam?
If so, do you sweat these rallies like I do, wondering if reflation will take?
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 00:02:39 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
Dawg, thanks for the reminder about the bond link. My only real holding right now is a position in a CA muni fund that doesn't seem to be following the national trend of declining yields... hmm.
A couple weeks ago it seemed that the national media had finally picked up the "Populist Rage" (Newsweek's term) out there. But suddenly this week, all the spin seems to be to the bull(s**t) side of the data. Is the market just climbing the wall of worry, or is the coyote (Mr. Market) about to be led off the cliff by RoadRunner again?
I'm chewing on this article by Doug Kass from yesterday, about how he's confident he was right that we've passed the final bottom. I'm not so confident, and looking at his tracking list I think he's just wrong.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/217652/Kass-I-Was-Right-That-Was-the-Market-Bottom;_ylt=Aryxx4jjTAB2u7c.T3ZOgBC7YWsA?tickers=ge,%5Edji,fcx,arg,%5Egspc?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
For instance, he claims that for the rally to be real commodities have to rise as a confirmation of growth in demand. Well, commodities are up, but I think it's more because of long-term inflation fears. There's certainly no sign of surging demand for oil.
He also claims that we need evidence of a bottom in the economy, housing markets and housing prices. He claims retail has improved each month January to March, and that months-of-inventory for housing is improving. I don't buy either of those claims yet, and in particular home prices will continue to fall fairly rapidly so long as months-of-inventory stays anywhere near its current peak: it's the absolute value of the inventory that drives prices, not its trend.
The only thing I think he got right was that "marginal buyers ... fueled March's market rise as the fear of being out has begun to replace the fear of being in". I dunno, I had that fear of being out in November-December, and it was kicked right out of me in January.
This bear has been near its worst during some of the earnings reporting months (January '08, October '08, January '09). I'm not seeing evidence of a turnaround except in companies like Best Buy whose principal competition has folded. (Anybody else seeing good earnings trends?)
April may be the cruelest month yet...
Wisdom Speaker Fri Mar 27 00:02:54 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Comment on y2k from a non-IT person: I took some precautions because I had minor children at the time. I did not expect planes to fall out of the sky, but I thought rail traffic might be congested and municipal service might be affected. I expected some sort of mild irritation, but not likely anything too dramatic so long as people didn't go crazy. It turned out to be the biggest nothingburger of all time.
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 00:03:52 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
What should we do to prepare for the inevitable complete and total economic collapse of the US economy and the attempted economic takeover by the world ruling elite through their SDR currency?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e4c56948-1946-11de-9d34-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fe4c56948-1946-11de-9d34-0000779fd2ac.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.prisonplanet.com%2Ftwo-faced-geithner-assures-cfr-puppet-masters-hes-open-to-global-currency.html&nclick_check=1
http://www.prisonplanet.com/two-faced-geithner-assures-cfr-puppet-masters-hes-open-to-global-currency.html
Should we prepare to die for our convictions and our country? I am.
Michael Fri Mar 27 00:05:06 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
It would be my pleasure and an honor to my forefathers. I already know how the story ends.
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Michael Fri Mar 27 00:15:39 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- Michael, really. Die? Aren't you the least bit curious to see what the New World Order will be like? It might be fun! If not, you can always kill yourself later.
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notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 00:16:12 2009 CDT #
Casa de Dolor says:
Notional Billionaire ROTFLMAO, god that was funny.
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Casa de Dolor Fri Mar 27 01:21:55 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
"What should we do to prepare for the inevitable complete and total economic collapse of the US economy"
A perfect example of "begging the question", for those of you that are interested.
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Cinco-X Fri Mar 27 07:13:44 2009 CDT #
That Barton Fink Feeling says:
"Y2K can't be judged properly in retrospect, simply because the crisis mentality virtually insured that what could've happened didn't."
One indispensible value in Y2K was how it reflected American values.
Short terming, all the way.
And though the crisis itself was largely defused, other phenomena are not so amenable to overnight, 11th hour fixes. Like, oh, economies. And the planet.
That Barton Fink Feeling Fri Mar 27 00:05:52 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Wisdom Speaker,
Kass is wrong, and this is just one of the bigger bear market rallys IMO. There are so many more shoes left to drop you'd think Imelda Marco's private jet blew up overhead.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 00:06:29 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
There are so many more shoes left to drop you'd think Imelda Marco's private jet blew up overhead.
- That one made me laugh so hard I think I hurt myself. Too funny.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 00:25:11 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Actually, when you look at dshort's Mega-Bear charts, this rally occur's at year 9, of the GDI, Nikkei post '90s. and now the inflation adjusted post 2k DJIA. We should go up 15-25%, and subsequently drop to new lows off the peak.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Fri Mar 27 07:17:36 2009 CDT #
JD2B says:
I haven't heard MSM (yahoo, reuters, cnn, AM stock talk radio) so desperate to call a rally in 2 years.
They seem to think we will go lower again, but the bottom is in.
So many more skeletons to drag out
JD2B Fri Mar 27 00:11:46 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Lot of hands still stuck in the cookie jar, who are VERY eager for this to be over, or get time enough to put some distance between them and the missing cookies.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:17:21 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
The unknowns were embedded chips, utility control software, etc. I didn't work in those fields so I had no idea what the exposure was. I repaired or replaced all systems I had control over, and I guess most others did too, but it was not all hype to fleece business. That is not to say that there was not some fraud, but the problem was real.
--------------------------------------------------------------
The problem was definitely real.
As for utility control and systems like that, I found that most of the systems I came across and heard about used real-time operating systems, the most common at that time seemed to be VxWorks. VxWorks used the same POSIX-compliant date implementation that UNIX used, so it wasn't affected unless some programmer decided to roll his own date function because he was bored or something.
Chicago Dude Fri Mar 27 00:11:54 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
Looks like the long-overdue spring cleaning has started at OTS... "top bank regulator placed on leave ... approval of backdated cash infusions for troubled thrifts". Maybe Obama's team will be good for something after all?
Meanwhile, comparing Doom2009 with Y2K: the current equivalent of planes falling from the sky on 1/1/00? I'd say, provocatively, that it's the guns and ammo, civil-disorder, back-to-the-farm mentality you see on the forums like this one. I understand the impulse, and think a certain amount of prudence is essential in case of a real emergency, but I'm not outright expecting enough rioting to make me personally worried about safety. (Then again, I live in the 'burbs and work in a fairly secure environment...) Honestly, if I had a gun I'd be more worried about the kids doing something dumb. The standard of living today, even with all that's about to go horribly wrong, is still much better than during the 1930s, and there wasn't *that* much disorder back then -- and what there was had more to do with Prohibition...
Wisdom Speaker Fri Mar 27 00:13:45 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
If I was in government, I would be preparing to guide the media towards encouraging a harmonious society. Political survival will require more than direct reassurances, will need it falling out of the wood work left and right.
Probably get the best advice from the French and Greeks.
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 00:14:22 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
EHP,
As has been mentioned here before, the government ought to get busy legalizing drugs. That would help encourage a "harmonious society".
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 00:16:03 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I'm enjoying watching the Mexican drug cartel carnage. A necessary evil to achieve a desirable outcome. Legalization of Pot.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 00:31:18 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
Sorry, forgot to hit paste on the OTS regulator spring cleaning: yahoo finance...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Top-bank-regulator-placed-on-apf-14761890.html
So, if we agree Kass is wrong, the mass media are wrong, and there's another nice downleg coming up... how are folks here planning to spot it?
Wisdom Speaker Fri Mar 27 00:17:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
I'd say there is no way for the DOW to pull off a 9 handle, no matter how hard they pump. Inflation and Bonds blow up before then and too many speculators/opportunist cashing out.
I will start setting up straddes on the sectors I think will be the mose negatively affected tomorrow and move as short as I am willing to go at 8200.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:24:08 2009 CDT #
That Barton Fink Feeling says:
"Should we prepare to die for our convictions and our country? I am."
Choose life, Michael.
http://www.davidpbrown.co.uk/poetry/john-hodge.html
That Barton Fink Feeling Fri Mar 27 00:17:27 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
The next shoes may not drop but may be thrown. In which direction is an unknown.
Dawg any recommendations on sites to follow corporate bonds, esp. high yield junk? Thanks
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 00:18:10 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
The market is driven more by mood than by reality. People are tired of being depressed.
We may have already passed peak DOOM!
I really feel like Geithner's money handout plan has been sold to the public at large as something they can get a piece of in the form of funds. (Basically securitizing the securitized debt bailout.) With new sheep to fleece, the market's getting giddy.
NateTG Fri Mar 27 00:19:33 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"We may have already passed peak DOOM!"
As someone who got layed-off this month, are you crazy? Houses, jobs and pay. All still broken. And what about any regulation to prevet a futre crisis. Or even if the JD and SEC starts doing the jobs they have been ignoring for 8 years.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:32:33 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Rob Dawg, yogi,
FINRA is a good ressource, for bonds see http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter/Default.aspx
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 00:21:19 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
i want to line something up...but it's brutal out there.
First step is a degree; second step is a license. Without those things you're well qualified to flip burgers. I realize it's brutal out there, even for greybeards who rely on decades of experience and accomplishments in order to survive.
FWIW I would recommend working in a completely different field, hopefully using your analytical mind to help some business prosper while waiting for the day when you've accomplished the first two steps.
You will be more valuable to someone with developed skillsets outside of your primary field. (By more valuable I don't mean more money, just more likely to be hired.)
One of the great attributes of the legal profession is that you deal with every form of human interaction. Unless you have more than a passing knowledge of every form of human interaction, you will be limited in your ability to reach the correct conclusion and base an opinion on that thought process.
The whole world awaits . . . .
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 00:22:25 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Without those things you're well qualified to flip burgers."
Bought my first house flipping burgers, in school. Was a time, you could make a living without a degree.
Of course I did a stint in the USAFR, so no money down, VA. But still. Also a good place to learn a trade and make connections.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:39:53 2009 CDT #
Baca says:
I remember in late 1999 there was a list of at least 8 books in the WSJ that were all about how to survive the coming Y2K catastrophe. Lots of people made money on that. We're seeing today (or soon) books about how to survive the Great Depression. I lean doomer but try to keep a perspective.
As far as this rally goes, I don't see what has fundamentally changed with banking/financial sector compared to six months ago. Jobs are being lost, unemployment claims are high, continuing claims are increasing, and all kinds of consumer loan defaults are rising. Oh, and prices in food/gas are still rising - that's all we need now is $3 gasoline or higher this summer. As Fleckenstein says, the market now has to deal with a recessionary economy and the looming 'funding crisis' not only of the federal government, but state and local governments and their underfunded pensions.
I think this bear market wants to suck everyone in again. Hell, this is just a continuation of the 2000-03 bear market, since the Oct. '07 was the double top.
I can't see how these folks are calling a bottom when the problems are still with us (nothing has been solved) and more are on the horizon. After reading Simon Johnson's 'the quiet coup' on baselinescenario, I'm more worried now than back in September/October.
Baca Fri Mar 27 00:23:42 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
JD2B,
There are still growing companies out there where advancement can come quickly. Sure, you start out at the bottom, but the time can pass faster than you'd think.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 00:26:22 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
From Politico with Geithner video on global currency.
Geithner 'open' to China proposal
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0309/Geithner_open_to_China_proposal.html?showall
Michael Fri Mar 27 00:27:22 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"First step is a degree; second step is a license. Without those things you're well qualified to flip burgers. "
I agree with the license part, but you don't necessarily have to have a degree to obtain a good license. Take aircraft mechanics for instance.
A mechanic can obtain a license by way of apprenticeship, which is often paid, and most colleges give two years of college credit for having one.
I just don't think there are any pat answers. For example, are you going to work for yourself or others? Do you enjoy sitting behind a desk? Do you enjoy working with people? Do you enjoy working with tools?
Taking the Strong Vocational Inventory might help. This test is not a measure of aptitudes, but of interests. The test results are compared with the results for successful people in a variety of different fields.
mp Fri Mar 27 00:34:32 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
What sector (besides the government sector) will lead us out of this mess, according to Kass?
And how is the government really helping, even if it keeps borrowing costs low, but simultaneously drives up the cost of commodities? Will that help the consumer crawl out from under his debt burden? Doubt it.
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 00:37:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"What sector will lead us out of this mess"
Civil works construction for sure.
IT (Open source OS, virtualization, commodity HW set-up)
Retail Parmacy/min-medical (Dr. and/or Nurse in grocery store/Wallgreens)
Digital entertainment (creators not distributors) and online distribution. (TV on iTunes)
Tech if VC can be sure Justice will keep MSFT on a leash.
Ag, if you can grow it for less than you can sell it. factory farms (ADM)
Bio Tech specialzed genetic products and anti-biotics (ADM)
Last mile or wireless broadband.
I won't bet against GOOG. AMZN or IBM. Somehow they have funtionally competent leadership still. Only US GOV can F those up. I'd say AAPL, but S. Jobs...
Not that I am reccomending ANY of the Corps here. Just using exaples of ones I DON'T own.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 02:19:51 2009 CDT #
me says:
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/1223/gopbudget01copy.jpg
me Fri Mar 27 00:39:25 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
The left and right wingnuts are just a bunch of cocksuckers hell bent on plundering us all, in just different ways of coarse.
Here's a good online reade for you;
THE LAW - by Frederick Bastiat
http://lexrex.com/informed/otherdocuments/thelaw/main.htm
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 00:45:54 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Wisdom Speaker said, <i>"April may be the cruelest month yet... "</i>
I hope you're right, I need to sell some Puts to pay my 2008 taxes.
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 00:41:07 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Sell in May and go away.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 00:46:36 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Agree with mp. I withdrew from college and haven't earned a single certification, yet I've been kicking IT ass for 27 years.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 00:41:40 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"kicking IT ass for 27 years"
Only field still young enough to do that right now. This downturn may change that when the MBAs flood the jobs pools for new entrants.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 00:45:21 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Hey, I never had a problem with Js-Kit recognizing html formatting commands like <i></i>. Hmmmm.... Maybe folks are right about this system being subpar (to be kind).
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 00:42:55 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
. . . you don't necessarily have to have a degree to obtain a good license. Take aircraft mechanics for instance. . . .
Completely agree in general. My comment was directed at someone who requires a degree before he or she can be licensed.
One of the things I've enjoyed about life is doing different things. Aircraft mechanic, oddly enough, is available at the moment:
<h1 class="marginMidSide">Inaugural class underway at SCLA aviation school</h1>
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 00:46:14 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"Only field still young enough to do that right now"
Oh, come on. There are a lot of good careers for which colleges don't even offer a degree.
Ever seen a degree program for tool and die makers? Machinists? (I'm not talking about machine operators, but honest to god machinists.) Printed circuit board designers?
mp Fri Mar 27 00:48:35 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Im a machinist with 20 years experience. Associate degree only, computer science/managemeny information, good enough.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:04:25 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Blackhalo,
Yes, that was certainly a factor. MBA's don't scare me, but all those PHDs streaming out of India could make a dent.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 00:49:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"PHDs streaming out of India could make a dent."
I have not hear much about this years crop H-1B's. Dems keeping that Quiet? That will be a hard sell.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 02:02:24 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Seeking investment advice from the geniuses here...
If you wanted to raise cash to place more short bets (if/when the S&P goes to 900), would you:
(a) Sell all your I-Bonds that make up 20% of your portfolio, representing most of your cash?
Or....
(b) Sell 1/2 of your physical gold that makes up 40% of your portfolio?
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 00:49:07 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
ShortCourage,
IMHO don't touch your physical.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 00:53:42 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"IMHO don't touch your physical."
Watch the Zimbabwe video, where they are digging/panning for flakes of gold to buy bread. Totally moving. Physical is for barter, in case things get REALLY out of hand. Piece of mind too.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 02:01:01 2009 CDT #
Hoopajoops LTD says:
I'm just angry non stop, 24/7 now. It isn't healthy for me.
Hoopajoops LTD Fri Mar 27 00:53:50 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Bought my first house flipping burgers,
Hope you didn't think I was demeaning that sort of work.
I couldn't begin to tell you the number of different jobs I've had.
As a 19 year old buck sargeant, when being handed the stripes by the C.O., I was told that I should never order a man to do anything I wasn't willing to do . . . and capable of doing. What I've done ever since then has been to learn the job of every person under me and around me.
But I can't compete with that guy on TV, Mike Rowe and his Dirty Jobs or whatever that show is called.
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 00:56:02 2009 CDT #
mp says:
@hoopajoops
What sane person isn't angry right now?
I'm angry as hell.
mp Fri Mar 27 00:56:15 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
tj and the bear, thanks for YHO.
Hoopajoops,
I feel that way too. Try watching a good sitcom to escape. I was working out in the gym at work, and I tuned into "Everybody Loves Raymond" instead of Bloomberg. VERY nice laugh, made me feel much better.
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 00:57:41 2009 CDT #
Hoopajoops LTD says:
mp, it seems like we're getting a look behind the sausage machine. It'll be hard to go back to working in this economy now that it's obvious that the entire monopoly game is rigged for the benefit of an untouchable few who can just reach into the banker's box.
Hoopajoops LTD Fri Mar 27 00:59:01 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
For the want of a nail the shoe was lost;
For the want of a shoe the horse was lost;
For the want of a horse the battle was lost;
For the failure of battle the kindgom was lost;
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
Guest Fri Mar 27 00:59:08 2009 CDT #
Hoopajoops LTD says:
Angry peasants tend to mislay nails.
And economists tend to misjudge how angry peasants can get when some sort of public retribution isn't delivered to the right parties.
Hoopajoops LTD Fri Mar 27 01:02:00 2009 CDT #
mp says:
This morning, son of mp told me about an engineer who attempted to drill a 5/16" hole through a single edge razor blade. He brushed aside an offer for assistance by one of the machinists and, using a drill press set at 4000 rpm, proceeded to drill the hole.
He held the blade with his fingers.
Do I need to describe what happened?
Now, this guy is an "engineer," with a "degree" in mechanical engineering.
Now, you know one of reasons why Detroit can't build cars.
mp Fri Mar 27 01:02:07 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Should have secured it in a vice well supported, used a carbide drill at about 650 rpm and slow feed.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:12:06 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Spent 3 years as a butcher and I've see some pretty stupid things done by those who should know better. But there are people who go through there whole lives thinking they are invulnerabe, and then POW.
This guy got to learn a hard lesson the hard way. Hopefully it teaches him learn the easy way. From others.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:22:18 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Hoops don't miss yesterday's South Park.
Mp's suggested Atlantic article will make you madder, but the fact that it's by MIT Economic professors gives heart.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 01:02:30 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
SC, Hoopajoops,
You gotta have escapes. I volunteer at a dog rescue. You wouldn't believe how gratifying it is to spend quality time with a bunch of loving animals in search of a good home.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 01:03:03 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
.........engineering schools dont teach how to drill..........they teach math , physics , chem and useless jargons...........
Jay D. Fri Mar 27 01:05:18 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"Im a machinist with 20 years experience."
Well, if you've spent any time around here reading my comments, given your background, you'll understand why I'm massively pissed.
mp Fri Mar 27 01:07:24 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
You me and dryfly too.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:14:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Dear Family, Friends and Colleagues,
As most of you know I work at AIG, specifically in the division known as Financial Products which is often cited as the “root of the problem” at AIG. It seems to me that given the media circus, political hypocrisy and witch-hunting going on in the US right now, I should try to set a few facts out and make a few points that, while they are appearing in the press, are being drowned out in the populist frenzy.
First of all, what happened at AIG? AIG has been destroyed by a systemic failure of management that started when Hank Greenberg was booted out. I have facts that prove that had Greenberg not been removed, AIG would be in fine form today, but he does need to accept the blame for the weak overall structure of the place. Now what I mean by systemic failure is this: while it is true that AIG FP lost a fantastical amount of money, something like 45 billion dollars, other units at AIG, namely AIGGIC in its securities lending activity has lost even more. It is misleading and an intentional distortion of the facts by AIG and the treasury to pin this solely on FP, much as FP does richly deserve blame. …
Even worse than this is that the failure of AIG is part of a systemic failure of the anglo-saxon financial world. If AIG alone had failed, then the lessons to be learned would be at AIG alone. However, as clearly as AIG itself is a case study in corporate governance failures that I hope will be taught to the future class of sheep/managers at Harvard Business School, the real failures in the US and UK banking systems stem from an extremist belief in the free market. How else to explain the simultaneous failures of virtually every large US and UK bank? And the blame for this lies squarely in the corrupt circles of US politico-business classes. … Basically at the heart of the US democratic system is the fundamental issue that those with money can influence those with power and that usually their interests are narrow, short term and take no account of the country at large.
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:07:48 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
I love this board. Your generalizations are exploded within seconds.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 01:07:56 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Personally I hate this system, I fear for the future of America and the world and I and many of my colleagues strongly supported candidates of change like Obama because we could see something was amiss. I will tell you though, what was amiss was not that a bunch of hard working, highly motivated and intelligent individuals working in finance got paid a lot, what was amiss was that the wider culture led by people like W Bush and Dick Fuld and Jimmy Cayne set and reinforced the example that money was the ultimate arbiter of goodness and rightness and that people who stuck to their traditional values and actually cared about the institutions they worked in and refused to do crappy business that would blow up their banks were sidelined and underpaid and made to feel like fools for “not getting it”. My team contained a Slovak physicist who in act of great courage and wisdom, defected from the eastern block during the cold war. A French civil engineer who would like to build bridges but couldn’t resist the lucre of finance. A Russian-Jewish immigrant who has worked his way up from busboy in a brooklyn diner to key member of the the commodities business and an indian graduate of IIT who fixes his own broken electronics gear on his desk at work.. These people are not corrupt. They have earned their success. Their stories are even testament to the simple fact that anyone could come get a job in finance and succeed. If anything, the tragedy is that so many talented people worked in finance when they and society would have been better off with their efforts focussed else where.
I and most of colleagues at FP are in that group. Last year, amidst the greatest financial crisis in a long time and the crumbling of AIG, the businesses I ran made tens of millions of profit eve after deducting losses taken when we had to pay others to take over our books of business after AIG failed. In my career I have probably made something like a billion dollars for the banks I worked for (Bear Stearns and AIG) and doing this required all my intelligence, energy and hours. I have spent over 15 years waking up at 5am and coming home late at night , playing by the rules, making thought-through, ethical and conscientious decisions in the framework of an industry that has existed for thousands of years and currently employs hundreds of thousands of people in the major financial centers. None of What I did was illegal, none of what I did was unethical, none of what I did keeps me up at night. I will happily stand in front of congress and justify every deal, every mark, every decision I made. And most of the employees at FP, many of whom I count as friends and honorable people, will happily do the same. …
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:08:10 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What is happening in the US political system today is a travesty of fairness, basic rights and transparency. Where was this congressional outrage and mob-baiting over abu-ghraib, guantanomo, the failing educational system, the failing health care system, the incredible inequality of opportunity and outcome in the US, the illegal war in iraq and I’m sure this list can go on? This outrage is manufactured by the very politicians, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Andrew Cuomo and others who supervised the system, who took it’s fruits as campaign contributions, to hide their own far greater culpability in the creation of the mess we are in. The crisis is systemic and the leaders of the system are trying to blame it on 10 guys in connecticut. Please, you should feel insulted to your core that the US political establishment tries to lie to you again.
I am not shocked. I am an observer of US foreign policy. I see how the US corrupts, betrays, its principles lies, mis-names its deeds and turns on its allies all over the world all day every day. That this rot and corruption are now being evidenced domestically in the form of a McCarthy like witch-hunt of “bankers” is much less shocking than that they would kill a million Iraqi’s and then declare victory for democracy. I am not shocked that in a country where only 30% of the population can name the three branches of government (but 70% can name an America Idol judge) that it does not seem important that congress is trying to pass ex-post-facto taxes or secure bills of attainder. It flows naturally that the vitiation of contract law doesn’t seem worthy of remark. THE ENTIRE US SYSTEM IS COMMITTING SUICIDE. And why? Because congressman only really care about the next election and care nothing about the long term. The same crappy incentive scheme that has destroyed finance is destroying the US government. The real leaders are being mocked for their stands on principle. Today it is not god bless america, it is god help america.
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:08:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Now on the specific case of the AIG bonuses, let me spread a little fact:
1) On October 22nd 2008 (one month after bailout) Andrew Cuomo reaffirmed our right to payments under the retention plan.
2) On October 9th Bill Dooley, the head of financial services at AIG, restated that the treasury and AIG were committed to payments under the ERP.
3) AIG reduced the value of our deferred compensation to zero, effectively cutting the value of the contracts under the ERP by about 30-50% depending on the amount due to each employee.
4) AIG wiped out the value of our previously earned deferred compensation, costing me, for example, about half my saving and many others in the company the same.
5) At no time did AIG ask to renegotiate the contracts or plead extenuating circumstances. Many of us would have worked for much less or for nothing just to clean things up.
6) AIG prepaid 30% of the ERP amount in December with their hearty thanks for a job well done. The treasury knew of and had to approve this.
Is it really fair of them to try to renegotiate after we have performed on our half of the contract? It would have been fair in september during the bailout, or in october. Those were extraordinary circumstances. But is it fair of them to come to us after the end of the contract and then ask for the money back after many of us have made personal and professional sacrifices based on these contracts? I, along with many of my colleagues, have expressed a willingness to give the money to charity. But under no circumstances will we accept that we did not earn the money. …
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:08:51 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Is it really fair of them to try to renegotiate after we have performed on our half of the contract?"
Fair would have been for AIG to go BK. AIG sells off all profitable portions of their business and you you get in line to talk to the judge about what you are entitled from AIG FP, with the others that would be owed money, like the CDS folsk.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:14:09 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Most Americans are stuck on the hamster wheel of life created for the by their elite overlords. They have no clue how they got there and no clue how to get off. Too much brainwashing throughout their lives to even begin to know where to start looking for answers. It is up to us and the Internet to try to teach them how things really are in the twisted fucked up world.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:32:26 2009 CDT #
JD2B says:
THanks for all the kind words guys.
Just a lot of anxiety being thrown about.
I have no problem fixin' burgers. I would probably have been just as happy to have been paid in burgers. Except for 1) my wife does not share said affection and 2) I would probably die of a coronary in 6 months.
JD2B Fri Mar 27 01:08:53 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Lastly, let me say one thing on the matter of the practicality of running AIG FP with out us. AIG FP is the nexus of thousands of contracts of incredible complexity. These are managed in purpose built systems using carefully crafted procedures. If all of us leave, who will maintain the systems for which there are no manuals? Who will know how to operate the technological machinery that is totally purpose built in house? Who will have the relationship with the relevant client with whom we have to negotiate as we unwind their contracts? True one or two or ten of us could be replaced (although after the current furor they would would want to paid a lot and in advance and with a letter from the president and the treasury and the supreme court that they can keep their pay) but if we all leave? Even a hijacker has enough sense not to shoot the pilot unless he can fly. Mr Frank, Mr Dodd and Mr Cuomo, can any of you run AIG FP? I didn’t think so.
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:09:16 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Preferably AIG FP goes poof, and counter-parties can pound sand, or make thier case to the judge.
Now if you can make the case for WHY the world will not survive w/o AIG FP, well then maybe you would be worth some bonus $$$.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:31:55 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I say let the whole system collapse and the chips fall where they may.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:34:59 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I say let the whole system collapse and the chips fall where they may."
I am open to the possiblity that it could hurt J6P more that Bob the Banker. But someone has to prove it with real math for me. Otherwise to big to fail means, get smaller.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:42:27 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
So, in effect, you helped create "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction", AND, you armed them with "Dead Man Switches", and now we're supposed to be greatful?
F.O.A.D.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Fri Mar 27 07:56:46 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
.........engineering schools dont teach how to drill..........they teach math , physics , chem and useless jargons...........
Law scholls don't teach anything about people . . . . .They teach contracts, criminal law, property . . . and useless jargon.
Hence the need to broaden one's experiences and skillsets.
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 01:09:33 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Anonymous,
Nicely written. You don't really work at AIG, do you?
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 01:09:48 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Pretty sure this is from the WSJ article. Guy got a 700K bonus.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:40:10 2009 CDT #
eh says:
The CME link is not correct anymore, and I have not been able to find its equivalent.
eh Fri Mar 27 01:11:47 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
On Cuomo's Forays Against Financial Chicanery at the Big End of Town
CRbot Fri Mar 27 01:12:03 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
Aw com'on guys, JD2B has just finished devoting much of his life to the 'Paper Chase' and you want to tell him to drop it for manual labor? I've had a few 5 year careers, too, and while I enjoy not being at a desk, that may not be his style.
I flipped burgers in high school with a couple of the top students in my city, and the thing that struck me was how much they enjoyed being able to do the labor while still having their minds free to discuss other things.
Good luck JD2B and although it sounds corny, just try to excell wherever and whatever you end up doing. You won't regret it.
sdtfs Fri Mar 27 01:13:20 2009 CDT #
fazbulous says:
mp,
Not saying you need a degree to work in tool & die, but many technical colleges and universities offer machine tool technology programs. My brother graduated with a two year technical degree in just such a program.
fazbulous Fri Mar 27 01:13:44 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/26/lula-attacks-white-bankers-crash
White, blue-eyed bankers are entirely to blame for the world financial crisis that has ended up hitting black and indigenous people disproportionately, the president of Brazil declared .
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 01:19:25 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
No you didn't make tens of millions of dollars.
You lost billions of dollars. Give it back.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 01:19:52 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"Aw com'on guys, JD2B has just finished devoting much of his life to the 'Paper Chase' and you want to tell him to drop it for manual labor? "
Not necessarily. He should do what he ENJOYS doing, not just do it for the money. I can't think of anything more soul-destroying than doing it just for the money.
"Not saying you need a degree to work in tool & die, but many technical colleges and universities offer machine tool technology programs."
I stand corrected, but will note that I am prejudiced in favor of those who received their "degree" on the shop floor.
mp Fri Mar 27 01:20:14 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
you get in line to talk to the judge about what you are entitled from AIG FP, with the others that would be owed money, like the CDS folks [ed]
Actually, if I understand the process correctly, the CDS folks simply take everything, since they are somehow not affected by BK laws, and he and everyone else owed money by AIG simply gets nothing.
The more I think about it the more convinced I become that, for Bush and Paulson to have taken the extraordinary step of funneling $135B into AIG (along with Bernanke), the alternative must have been grave.
So the new guys added $30B. I'm guessing they looked at the alternative, too.
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 01:22:32 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The more I think about it the more convinced I become that, for Bush and Paulson to have taken the extraordinary step of funneling $135B into AIG (along with Bernanke), the alternative must have been grave."
Until TPTB make a case of the risk and impact, I am not inclined to take thier word for it. For me, they need to spell it out, no matter how dire, cause reason tells me they are doing it to protect the way of life of thier elitest buddies over the American people.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:26:16 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I'm convinced this engineered collapse will take down TPTB. They don't understand the true American resolve.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:50:02 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
And to add to that, they are scrambling to maintain their power structure. TPTB days are numbered.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:52:33 2009 CDT #
mp says:
I actually believe that, once this carnage is over, we're going to have a real industrial policy. The PTB are going to recognize that we have to manufacture and export.
I really think there's going to be a manufacturing renaissance in this country.
I just hope I live to see it.
mp Fri Mar 27 01:25:59 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I'm counting on it, while not taking 10 years to get back to it. I want it to happen in 2 years tops and the collapse to happen quickly. I only have about 12 good years of work left in me.
Parent Post
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:46:28 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
@hoops
Angry peasants tend to mislay nails.
And economists tend to misjudge how angry peasants can get when some sort of public retribution isn't delivered to the right parties.
yes, indeed.
The Daily Bail Fri Mar 27 01:29:21 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
well said!
Parent Post
The Daily Bail Fri Mar 27 01:30:04 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
I've see some pretty stupid things done by those who should know better.
You've been watching me work? Seriously, I've tried to cultivate a safety first work ethic because of all the dumb things I've got away with and then thought about afterward.
sdtfs Fri Mar 27 01:30:08 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Sports how do CDS get around BK?
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 01:33:51 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
@black Halo
you say some correct things.
The Daily Bail Fri Mar 27 01:34:13 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"They have no clue how they got there and no clue how to get off."
I came to that same conclusion when I was 41 years old. That was the beginning of a process that took me several years to work through, but I'm glad I went through it.
mp Fri Mar 27 01:37:08 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Blackhalo, at times I'm willing to agree with your inclination because it suits my political and socioeconomic biases, but I'm not going to get too angry right about now. At the same time, though, I can easily understand how others can get just mad as hell about it.
My main criticism of Obama/Geithner at the moment is that there isn't enough transparency in the process. That's something he speicifically promised and that's something that has been delivered only in part. I just want the rest of the story and a few minutes to digest it.
Meanwhile, I'm remembering a question from long ago that, in a different context and by different voices, is again being asked today:
Marvin Gaye - What's Going On
Goodnight, folks.
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 01:40:56 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
" My main criticism of Obama/Geithner at the moment is that there isn't enough transparency in the process."
My suspicion is that they now realize that trasparency results in the same thing as and AIG BK.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:47:32 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
The clown boasts that he made a billion dollars for the banks. I'll bet him ten thousand bucks that at least one of his deals could be voided at common law.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 01:45:09 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
<tbody>
Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by 0)
</tbody>
yogi, I was more interested in going to sleep than looking this up, but:
The termination provisions in credit default swap contracts enjoy special treatment under the Bankruptcy Code, and particularly under amendments made in the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005, which clarified the treatment of credit default swaps and other derivative contracts.8 For example, although the “termination on bankruptcy” clause in the standard master agreement would ordinarily be considered an unenforceable ipso facto clause, the 2005 amendments make clear that such termination and liquidation provisions are enforceable.9
The non-bankrupt counterparty is specifically permitted to offset any claim against collateral it holds, without restraint by the automatic stay or other provisions of bankruptcy law.10 It is also entitled to net any claim with gains or losses from other terminated derivative contracts it has with the bankrupt party pursuant to a master agreement with a netting provision, like the ISDA 2002 Master Agreement.11
all emphasis added.
http://www.capdale.com/articles/detail.aspx?pub=3591
Anyway, if you want to research it and come up with a theory that works, I'd love to hear it (even though I have nothing to do with CDSs).
sportsfan Fri Mar 27 01:53:29 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
And every one just thought the 2005 BK law was an awful bill just because it screwed over J6P who had someone get sick in his family and had crappy insuance, ran up his cc bills and had to go bk. Even worse it ends up giving CDS special protection. Thank you very much GOP congress.
Parent Post
Dirk van Dijk Fri Mar 27 07:23:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"TPTB days are numbered." Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 01:54:35 2009 CDT #
mp says:
@Michael
Most of the people who haunt this site have something at risk, whether it's their jobs, investments, or something else.
Many years ago I made the decision that I would not be defeated. Regardless of whatever happened, I would figure a way around the problem, or through it.
You'll do OK because you're asking the right questions, but no one here can give you "the answer." The answer must come from within you because no one knows your situation better than you.
Anyway, it has been another long day and I'm very tired.
So, to you and everyone else still standing or typing, as the case may be, good night and good luck.
mp Fri Mar 27 01:54:46 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Thanks. Will analyze. You can sleep when the banks are solvent.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 01:55:57 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Good Night all.
Michael Fri Mar 27 01:57:28 2009 CDT #
limda says:
mp says:
Today, 11:32:07 AM
<tbody>
“This morning, son of mp told me about an engineer who attempted to drill a 5/16" hole through a single edge razor blade. He brushed aside an offer for assistance by one of the machinists and, using a drill press set at 4000 rpm, proceeded to drill the hole.
He held the blade with his fingers.
Do I need to describe what happened?
Now, this guy is an "engineer," with a "degree" in mechanical engineering.
how, you know one of reasons why Detroit can't build cars.
</tbody>
“.........engineering schools dont teach how to drill..........they teach math , physics , chem and useless jargons...........
I was an engineer working in night shift and i was pretty dumb.A problem cropped up with stamper and my workers refused to work unless its repaired.They thought,lets fool this new person and enjoy free time.I went to the stamper with tools and repaired it in 15 mins.I didnt hear a single complaint after that incident.Not all engineers are dumb.
limda Fri Mar 27 02:01:03 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
A first thought is that if someone like anon above was using reserves mandated by insurance law to be held against ordinary life or other policies as collateral for these huge bets on securities, he was acting illegally, beyond the scope of his corporate agency, and a counterparty like GS should have known it. He can't bind the corporation, now the taxpayer.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 02:09:54 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"THE ENTIRE US SYSTEM IS COMMITTING SUICIDE"
--------------
And it used a gun manufactured by AIG.
Broward Horne Fri Mar 27 02:13:22 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
The swap would be at least rescinded, if not void. GS can have their premiums back, if they can get it from BK.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 02:14:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
"What sector will lead us out of this mess"
One word -- ENERGY.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Fri Mar 27 02:31:00 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"One word -- ENERGY."
Coal, nuke, oil or gas? Wind? Solar?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Fri Mar 27 02:34:25 2009 CDT #
unirealist says:
Someday perhaps the full story of Y2K will be told. The big problem I feared was embedded chips. There were twenty-odd explosions and fires at US oil refineries in 98-99 occurring during remediation work. Why nothing after 12/31/99? Had the remediation been unnecessary but dangerous? Or were all the significant embedded chips replaced in time?
I still suspect that the IRS never succeeded in bringing all its pre-2000 data into compliance, and that much of it is virtually inaccessible.
My bank had a small problem with safe-deposit box records, and one of our vendors lost its accounts receiveable records.
Overall, I was stunned that there were not more problems like those.
On the positive side (for me), I had bet on price spikes in fuel, food, and PM's, and against the stock market. Smart bets, as it turned out.
unirealist Fri Mar 27 02:55:50 2009 CDT #
duke of con dao says:
Citiprank... that Y2K scam was a lesson, at least for hanky panky when he got down on one knee...
duke of con dao Fri Mar 27 02:55:54 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Wage Deflation Sets In
CRbot Fri Mar 27 03:00:14 2009 CDT #
duke of con dao says:
bought a tree farm in Tennessee with a 100 year old log cabin on it in'99... told people it was my redoubt if Y2K turns out to be the real deal... for others, I gave the reason for the buy that I was going to run for the the presidency someday... Houston County, TN real Deliverance country...
duke of con dao Fri Mar 27 03:07:46 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Alan Greenspan's Disingenuous Financial Times Comment
CRbot Fri Mar 27 03:08:42 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Links 3/27/09
CRbot Fri Mar 27 03:57:46 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
do any of you doomers get the feeling (at least sometime) that you're a Y2K nut? Every once and a while, i do...
No more than I felt like a nut in 2006. Something that makes no sense continues to be nonsensical no matter how many of my peers praise it.
Especially not a 20% rally in equities markets based on nothing other than a sophisticated multi-outlet PR show put on in place of policy by the Administration.
"Let's just pretend it's over". That's a strategy. HOPE NOW phrased in the imperative.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Mar 27 05:23:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
A bit more Bloomberg info relating to the scale of the Baltic collapse -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aa8ZRBQ6sSg0&refer=home
'The Baltic economic crisis, the deepest in the European Union, is hitting entrepreneurship in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, former Soviet republics with few large companies to provide employment. The $350-million market value of Lithuania’s largest traded company, TEO LT AB, is smaller than all but one of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members. The $6.3 billion value of all Baltic companies is less than last year’s profit of Verizon Communications Inc., the biggest U.S. phone company.'
But remember, this is ground zero of what will likely be the biggest crash in Europe since Iceland. Remember Iceland? Noticed any trillion dollar rescue packages for Iceland's shattered financial industry?
Though 'peanuts' is not quite the right expression (that term is reserved for people like Ackermann, who noted in the past that 10s of millions here, tens of millions there are beneath his notice, much like tens of billions are these days), think about what a huge effect having Verizon's profits disappear for a year would have on the world economy.
You can stop laughing now.
Or try this -
'The average cost of a one-bedroom apartment in Tallinn was down 25 percent by the end of 2008 from the market peak in the third quarter of 2007, according to the government.
.............
In the three Baltic states, whose combined population of 7 million is less than the population of London....'
And let's check out the UK - 'House prices in the UK plummeted by 18% in 2008. Although mortgage interest rates dropped slightly, to 4.48% in December 2008, the number of loan approvals for house purchases fell 58% in 2008.' http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/investment-analysis/2008-in-review-the-downturn-accelerated-at-year-end
Well, OK, it is pretty better to be invested in London property than Tallinn, but then, some places do have worse weather than London.
Though global economic collapse does mean global, sometimes, a bit of scale is worth keeping in mind.
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 05:42:28 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Outlier -- the people I was talking about are the Tikopians. I didn't know about them myself until EHP brought them up yesterday, and for all I know, they are his sophisticated internet fraud.
Anyway, the had a reef that was essential to their civilization damaged by a major storm. That recapitualates one of the arguments surrounding this, which is that civilizations that aren't centralized hierarchies won't be able to cope with these sorts of out of scope challenges.
Definitely the number one challenge to the diffuse social theorists. There are a couple of answers.
1) Structured finance. We just pursue the scope outwards and invent or discover new out of scope problems. There's an argument around if you can exhaust or deplete your population of out of scope problems by getting bigger / more complex.
2) They overcame it. Yeah it was a challenge. Using the resources available to them, they fixed it. A lesson about how nothing is ever certain.
3) Specialized engineering. Any deliberately diffuse social system is going to have to incorporate regional quasi-state actors like a "tribal nation". It will have to deal with territorial control and environmental issues.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Mar 27 05:43:27 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
think about what a huge effect having Verizon's profits disappear for a year would have on the world economy.
You can stop laughing now.
So what would it look like if this happened to the UK or Russia?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Mar 27 06:01:33 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
This article is about the situation in Spain, but could it be coming to the USA some day soon?
"Tax Dodgers Multiply as ‘Underground Economy’ Cushions Job Cuts"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aCuiJAVv6ZOc&refer=home
The more bailouts we see here, the angrier average joe will feel. He will feel entitled to a bailout, just like the banks. But he will have to take his bailout via tax avoidance or outright evasion.
ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 06:04:18 2009 CDT #
ill dillettante says:
ShortCourage
I think you make a really good point - all the high level theft is making it socially acceptable to not pay tax. The state really has no way to enforce the tax laws unless the middle classes co-operate. As long as the state can tax then everything can be resolved - after all the total debt run up is still way less than what was taken on in WWII, but without a tax base to support the debt then we are all Argentina.
Parent Post
ill dillettante Fri Mar 27 07:07:14 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Light Posting This Morning
CRbot Fri Mar 27 06:16:22 2009 CDT #
blah says:
imo not paying loans, defaulting, is the best protest americans have right now.
blah Fri Mar 27 06:23:11 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
host, President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, said the financial crisis was caused by "white people with blue eyes". He told a joint press conference with Mr Brown that he had never met a black banker.
"This is a crisis that was caused by people, white with blue eyes. And before the crisis they looked as if they knew everything about economics," he said. "Once again the great part of the poor in the world that were still not yet [getting] their share of development that was caused by globalisation, they were the first ones to suffer.
"Since I am not acquainted with any black bankers, I can only say that this part of humanity that is the major victim of the world crisis, these people should pay for the crisis? I cannot accept that. If the G20 becomes a meeting just to set another meeting, we'll be discredited and the crisis can deepen."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/financial-crisis-caused-by-white-men-with-blue-eyes-1655354.html
Guest Fri Mar 27 06:29:40 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Good companion reading to the Simon Johnson piece in The Atlantic.
Glenn Greenwald in The Salon:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/
MrM Fri Mar 27 06:41:10 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
whitey doing a runner---old refco days mak keiser----me? mwm with blue eyes
http://whitey.cf.huffingtonpost.com/
Guest Fri Mar 27 06:41:14 2009 CDT #
Jamie says:
Personally I don't care about the bonuses at AIG. Its a sideshow. If it was contracted then they should have got them. It was the Gov who decided not to BK AIG, if they BK then the bonuses don't get paid. If they don't then they do.
They are forcing pay/condition changes at GM as a result of bailout money, it wasn't done at AIG. Its not the employees who made that choice.
I still think the whole thing stinks and AIG guys at the top should be brought to book, but only if they actually broke the law.
Jamie Fri Mar 27 06:47:42 2009 CDT #
Where\'s the glod at? says:
El Gordo gets a dose of reality from across the pond:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs
Where\'s the glod at? Fri Mar 27 06:49:26 2009 CDT #
Where\'s the glod at? says:
AIG guys who 'caused' this have left many moons ago. It's a distraction.
Did anyone bother to even ask if CDS and other black opaque derivatives are still written? I bet they are and with gusto!
Culprits will be easy to spot, it's a great swallowing and a few 'good' institutions will be left standing stronger than ever.
Where\'s the glod at? Fri Mar 27 06:53:59 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
That AIG letter from Anony was covered fully on Alphaville yesterday. Bit of a clutter here.
Anyhow, good morning Mary-nam.
C
Counterpointer Fri Mar 27 06:54:17 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
my thoughts on the regulatory overhaul:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128179-obama-s-proposed-regulatory-overhaul-long-overdue?source=yahoo
Dirk van Dijk Fri Mar 27 06:57:35 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Mr. Taleb Goes to Washington
CRbot Fri Mar 27 06:58:03 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Ritholz is pretty light in his commentary. I'd have to add that it's not just Scholes, but David Li's gaussian cupola function equations which were picked up in such an aggressively leveraged environment. I have been having a stand-off with the credit risk people for months on this and they still can't conceive of driving down the freeway at top speed looking in the rear view mirror, while about to smack into a wall.
C
Parent Post
Counterpointer Fri Mar 27 07:06:04 2009 CDT #
Newbie 101 says:
My attempt to answer mp's question about China's agenda:
They want their currency included in the pool that makes up the "Special Drawing Rights" proto-world-currency.
From Wikipedia:
"It has also been suggested that having holders of US dollars convert those dollars into SDRs would allow diversification away from the dollar without accelerating the decline of the value of the dollar."
(Current pool members USD, EUR, JPY, GBP)
P.S. Chinese membership in the pool, and a USD peg to the pool would give us what looks like world currency.
Newbie 101 Fri Mar 27 07:15:40 2009 CDT #
Newbie 101 says:
Angry peasants tend to mislay nails. -Hoop
Old slave song about a cracked (sharp) kernel of corn placed under the master's saddle:
Jimmy cracked corn and I don't care,
the master's gone away...
Newbie 101 Fri Mar 27 07:29:57 2009 CDT #
ATM card, $19 etc... says:
Re: "What should we do to prepare for the inevitable complete and total economic collapse of the US economy"
A perfect example of "begging the question", for those of you that are interested.
*****
Okay, I'll bite. The question that goes begging is whether the collapse is inevitable, right?
ATM card, $19 etc... Fri Mar 27 07:42:50 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
"Begging the question (also called Petitio Principii, Circulus in Probando--arguing in a circle, or assuming the answer)--demonstrates a conclusion by means of premises that assume that conclusion."
Parent Post
Cinco-X Fri Mar 27 07:59:25 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
I believe it's time for this bear market rally to unrally.
--bh
blackhat Fri Mar 27 07:50:32 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Greenspan’s Amnesia
CRbot Fri Mar 27 07:52:44 2009 CDT #
julieng says:
hey AIG FP guy no matter how complicated your products are they were built
to fail insuring doggy debt is a wish, financial engineers are not magicians
you just sold trustfulness wrapped in maths.
Blaming democrats while you were acting under bush/Paulson/GS policy is a bit easy. AIG and others had free hands, just assume your acts
julieng Fri Mar 27 08:03:16 2009 CDT #
Indy says:
What the IMF Would Tell the United States, If It Could
I like
Indy Fri Mar 27 08:11:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
KB Homes new home orders up 20+% for the 1st quarter of 2009. Go figure.
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 08:13:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
This quarter they are making 12 houses!
Parent Post
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 08:19:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"This quarter they are making 12 houses!"
Close, over 1,800 vs over 1,400 last year.
Parent Post
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 08:32:12 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Guest Post: The new bailouts are an end-run around Congress
CRbot Fri Mar 27 08:20:17 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Ahh yeah, looking at KB here -- Loss shrank by 80% while sales only shrank by 60%!
Ooh, ooh, MNr Kotter, I bet these curves meet at 0!
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 08:32:01 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: February PCE and Personal Saving Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/february-pce-and-personal-saving-rate.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
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It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
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I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Fri Mar 27 08:35:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Isn't it sad when being wrong by 2 orders of magnitude because you're just being a knavish wag... is only 180 units off?
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 08:36:02 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Sorry, 398. Yah. Can you tell, this is the kind of job site where they charge for coffee?
Parent Post
Anonymous Fri Mar 27 08:37:06 2009 CDT #
END