Comments for "Hotel Occupancy: RevPAR Off 20%"

Interesting Times says:

FASB will vote on whether this is real or not.

Interesting Times Thu Apr 2 10:21:29 2009 CDT #

Mel says:

Does this mean Paris Hilton is screwed, or just that her rates have gone down?

Mel Thu Apr 2 10:22:01 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

This comment thread has been CRC-IZED by yagij (CRbot helped a little).

href="http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/phpCRCo.php?path=%2F3459858400593970995&ord=asc&csslayout=reg&topic=Hotel+Occupancy%3A+RevPAR+Off+20%25

And for the stubborn old-timers... it's also been HALO-IZED by CRbot.

http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3459858400593970995

CRbot Thu Apr 2 10:22:27 2009 CDT #

Br\'er Dawg says:

This is inflationary right?

Seriously, "sacrificing ADR" sounds like lower room rates are a marketing strategy. It is a survival issue at this point. If your business model didn't have some massive slack in utilization rates you are dead. The only thing keeping you alive is that the banks don't dare call your loans. Once again we find the more irresponsible you were the more you are protected from the consequences.

Br\'er Dawg Thu Apr 2 10:22:38 2009 CDT #

nades says:

Sweet avatar Dawg!

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:07:02 2009 CDT #

Nemo says:

In the future RevPAR will be marked to model.

Nemo Thu Apr 2 10:24:12 2009 CDT #

JimPortlandOR says:

Cold sheet rooms at warm sheet prices!

JimPortlandOR Thu Apr 2 10:24:18 2009 CDT #

Max says:

Food stamp list swells to record 32.2 million

Max Thu Apr 2 10:24:37 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

Oil soaring. And the cycle continues. Welcome to the summer of no money

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 10:24:46 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people filing new jobless claims jumped unexpectedly last week, while those continuing to receive benefits hit a 10th straight record-high. Both figures show the labor market remains weak and is unlikely to recover anytime soon, despite some signs the economy’s decline is moderating. ¶
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 669,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 657,000. That total was above analysts’ expectations and the highest in more than 26 years, though the work force has grown by about half since then. ¶
On a more positive note, the Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods rose 1.8 percent in February, much higher than analysts expected and reversing six straight monthly declines. ¶
Wall Street focused on the good news. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 218 points, or 2.8 percent, in mid-morning trading. Broader indices also rose almost 3 percent. ¶

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 10:25:44 2009 CDT #

Max says:

Repost from a short-lived thread this morning:

It's not squirrel, but it's damn close:

To urban hunter, next meal is scampering by
Detroit retiree, 69, supplements his income by living off the land

Detroit - When selecting the best raccoon carcass for the special holiday roast, both the connoisseur and the curious should remember this simple guideline: Look for the paw.

"The paw is old school," says Glemie Dean Beasley, a Detroit raccoon hunter and meat salesman. "It lets the customers know it's not a cat or dog."

Beasley, a 69-year-old retired truck driver who modestly refers to himself as the Coon Man, supplements his Social Security check with the sale of raccoon carcasses that go for as much $12 and can serve up to four. The pelts, too, are good for coats and hats and fetch up to $10 a hide.

Max Thu Apr 2 10:26:03 2009 CDT #

demonbankers says:

this bullshit economy. even if we did recover i still want these bankers to pay.

demonbankers Thu Apr 2 10:26:11 2009 CDT #

JimPortlandOR says:

Shorts are taking it the shorts today. I guess this insane rally indicates that M2M was limiting the creativity of lots of corporations. Or something equally unhealthy.

JimPortlandOR Thu Apr 2 10:27:32 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Yeah, sell the room. There's nothing new there, since we were doing it three decades ago when I was a teen working at a hotel.

Some money is better than nothing at all. Even if you're cutting a deal to get a shack-up in for a few hours.

This is down and oil's going up again.

Deflation in discretionary, inflation pressures in commodities.

homedad43 Thu Apr 2 10:29:14 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

OT- BSR,
Here's what I've written to my congressman:

Dear Congressman Oliver,
I'm writing because I'm deeply distressed about the implications of HR 875. This bill opens the potential for the government to shut down small family farms, and is also enables corporations like Monsanto to hold the food supply hostage by forcing ALL farmers to use their seeds, many of which will have genetic timers that will prevent the use of seed after a particular time period, and which will result in infertile seeds in the F-1 generation.
The Constitution states that all rights not specifically spelled out in the Constitution are to be reserved by the States or the People. While I'd think that the right to have a garden in your back yard (and according to the Bill, any garden that produces goods that "COULD" be sold for $1000.00 falls under the purview of this bill), it seems this right is under attack by a bill that was probably written by lobbyist from Monsanto, etc.
I'm presently planning on buying a goat and some chickens for our home, and between those and a small garden, I will be operating under HR875. I'd suggest to you that any "reasonable person" would view this as a ridiculous invasion of my privacy and my pursuit of happiness. While the title of this bill indicates that its purpose is to "protect" our food supply, it's apparent to me that it actually makes our food supply a hostage to multi-national mega- corporations like Arthur Daniels Midland and Monsanto.
I can understand if you haven't had time to research this, as you're undoubtedly very busy; as such, I'd be willing to research it further for you, but as I understand it, the bill is due to come up soon for a vote soon, so there's not much time. Perhaps if it passes, you could have it stalled when it comes to appropriations for it.
Please let me know if there's any more that I can do, and thank you for your time.
Best regards,
xxxxx

Have you and your friends written their congressman? It looks as though we're running out of time.

Cinco-X Thu Apr 2 10:31:31 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

You need to actually read this bill. It is not what you say at all.

It's main supporters are the sustainable and organic farming interests.

It's main opponents are the industrial agriculture companies and farms.

BTW it has no chance of passing at all.

chill out a bit

Parent Post

Guest Thu Apr 2 11:18:32 2009 CDT #

nades says:

Best regards,
xxxxx

I thought your name was Cino?

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:08:18 2009 CDT #

shill says:

Just bought Silver @ $14.41..$1.49 OVER SPOT!...bargain basement price there folks.....

Again Thank you Obama!...A gift from the ONE!.

Dollar in cliff diving mode! -1.05....

Ya you hold those Dollars!...

Oh fist????

shill Thu Apr 2 10:32:33 2009 CDT #

Angry Saver says:

So is this bullish or bearish for the "CONdotel" business model?

Angry Saver Thu Apr 2 10:33:05 2009 CDT #

Ho Lee Kow says:

Economists are just like accountants, only less creative.

Ho Lee Kow Thu Apr 2 10:33:43 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

And more glum-

Parent Post

Cinco-X Thu Apr 2 10:35:14 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

the Rio is offering rooms for $40/ nt. during the World Series of Poker. Unbelievable.

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 10:36:08 2009 CDT #

william says:

I know this is anecdotal, but my folks just returned from a few days in Vegas and they said the place was packed. They stayed at the Venetian and said it was standing room only in the evenings on the casino floor.

Parent Post

william Thu Apr 2 12:14:05 2009 CDT #

nades says:

william that might be march madness. one of the busier times of the year. Every story i've heard about Vegas is its got two feet in the grave...

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:17:48 2009 CDT #

Ministry of Truth says:

Who the hell is going to pay $100 a night for 2 star hotel anymore? 4 Star is the new 2 Star.

Ministry of Truth Thu Apr 2 10:36:30 2009 CDT #

Interesting Times says:

Where we are now.
- 2 Trillion in bailouts CHECK
- FDIC to back fake asset values CHECK
- M2M rules ignored CHECK
- Temporary halt of shorting to frighten those evil bears CHECK

DOW must make it to 36,000 now.

Interesting Times Thu Apr 2 10:38:39 2009 CDT #

sam.2 says:

Short covering has ended, it's time

sam.2 Thu Apr 2 10:39:25 2009 CDT #

shill says:

Dollar cliff diving! and the Market is in Irrational Exsuberence mode.

shill Thu Apr 2 10:39:58 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

And, 8-handle for the DOW!

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 10:42:44 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Carryover from previous thread.

So I guess here's my ultimate problem with the entire system, as highlighted by the previous discussion on FASB 157.

Guest, you state that banks are able to not only mark down their assets to best significant judgment. But it's also stated that they are also able to mark down their liabilities.

How can they write down their liabilities? The liability is something of value that is owed to someone else...writing down the liability assumes that the person/entity which is owed the money is willing to accept that write-down.

That makes no sense in a reality-based world. For an entity to agree to such a write-down means that there's communication/agreement and that is precisely what a market IS. The communication/agreement between individuals and entities.

This refusal to deal in a market-based reality has created a financial black hole. And the failure to address it will only further deepen the hole out of which we have to crawl.

Ultimately, our market is going to be made by the foreign providers of our credit and they will not accept this.

homedad43 Thu Apr 2 10:43:19 2009 CDT #

Angry Saver says:

The delinquency rate on closed end CONsumer loans just set another record!

This eCONomy rocks!

BTW, the number of Americans on food stamps (10.6% of the population) just set another record too!

Bring on the prosperity! Wealth baby! That's what I'm talkin about. Woohoo! The dollar is tanking and commodities are rallying. Yes! Bring it on!

Angry Saver Thu Apr 2 10:43:45 2009 CDT #

Br\'er Dawg says:

Deflation in discretionary, inflation pressures in commodities.

The accepted phrase at CR:
"Inflation in the things you need. Deflation in the things you cannot afford."

Br\'er Dawg Thu Apr 2 10:44:12 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Kung Fu Panda:
This is a travesty...arbitrarily changing the rules is a sign of a banana republic. I used to dismiss posters here who referred to the US that way, but I am changing my mind.

States are as they do, especially the large ones.

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2003_11_06_papers/panel2_nov6.pdf

Weak States include an array of nation-states that may be inherently weak because of
geographical, physical, or fundamental economic constraints; or are situationally weak because
of internal antagonisms, greed, or despotism. Weak states typically harbor ethnic, religious,
linguistic, or other tensions that may at some near point be transformed into all out conflict
between contending antagonisms. Their ability to provide adequate amounts of political goods is
diminished or diminishing. Physical infrastructural networks are deteriorated. Schools and
hospitals show signs of neglect. GDP per capita and similar indicators have fallen or are falling,
sometimes dramatically. Levels of venal corruption are high and escalating. The rule of law is
honored in the breach. Civil society is harassed. Despots rule.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 10:44:47 2009 CDT #

crispy and cole says:

As I have said for a few months now...things are improving in my business... the first Q was strong...the Depression-istas are running scared...LOL!!!

crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 10:45:08 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

C&C:
As I have said for a few months now...things are improving in my business.

Deputy or car repo?

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 10:47:28 2009 CDT #

crispy and cole says:

Thread music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-58-36lSqG4

crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 10:48:12 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Jesse:

Nasdaq 100 Futures Hourly Chart at 11 AM

CRbot Thu Apr 2 10:48:23 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

And, 8-handle for the DOW!

That is what the resistance at 6500 looks like.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 10:49:14 2009 CDT #

REBear says:

c&c,
What buisness are you in?

REBear Thu Apr 2 10:49:15 2009 CDT #

iceman says:

As Meredith Whitney so eloquently put it, none of the current thinking in the economy factors in low to mid teen unemployment later this year.

Watch what happens to hotel revenues at that point.

iceman Thu Apr 2 10:49:21 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

I think M-Ass is going to blame this on mark to market.
Ciao....

Guest Thu Apr 2 10:50:29 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

I have some stocks that I intend to hold to maturity. Can I mark them to model? I would like to use these shares as collateral against loans that will also ultimately be marked to model, so it makes sense to me !

bearly Thu Apr 2 10:51:43 2009 CDT #

Kung Fu Panda says:

What really bugs me recently is Greenspan's willful ignorance regarding securitization and how the Fed failed to control the supply of credit as a result. He had to know that the huge growth of credit as a result of securitization would come back to bite someday. I think he was looking to stall the day of reckoning to the next guy's watch. The history books will not be kind to Senor Greenspan.

Kung Fu Panda Thu Apr 2 10:52:35 2009 CDT #

iceman says:

<i>c&c,
What buisness are you in?</i>

Boat repo apparently is booming.

iceman Thu Apr 2 10:52:47 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

You know what's really HOT!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HOT&t=1d

bearly Thu Apr 2 10:53:23 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

Take profits, don't let the greed monster get you.

popeye Thu Apr 2 10:53:33 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

Take profits. Don't let the greed monster eat you.

popeye Thu Apr 2 10:54:50 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

As Meredith Whitney so eloquently put it, none of the current thinking in the economy factors in low to mid teen unemployment later this year.

The current economy is a fireworks display.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 10:55:31 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I am a real estate broker in Dallas. I pulled some llistings today for a client. I brought up pending as well as active because I was searching for a home that I had told them about and wanted to see if it was pending. What I found is that almost 50% of the pending sales were from 2008, 2007 and even as far back as 2003. So I looked to see if the status had been changed recently and it appears they had. Hmmm is someone gaming the stats and figures to spur business??? I am guessing that NAR and local chapters are. So then how many other stats are being fudged? Those that sell the coolaid are out in force to get people to beleive that recovery is here. I think if you have to fudge the numbers and cook the books perhaps things are far worse than we are being told. Just a thought.

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 10:56:27 2009 CDT #

cd says:

vix is holding up well today..hmmm

cd Thu Apr 2 10:57:29 2009 CDT #

cd says:

vix is holding up.....

cd Thu Apr 2 10:58:09 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Looks like the stock market is padding itself again ahead if earnings season. They do it every time.

Michael Thu Apr 2 10:58:12 2009 CDT #

Comrade Kristina says:

CBR...LMAO...Could be a BK attorney also...

Comrade Kristina Thu Apr 2 10:58:13 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

bearly - when could anyone ever mark stocks to model? never. a better comparison may be going to your bank and saying that you have a home worth $250k based on the comps over the past 2 years and your 2008 tax returns show that you earned 100k and ask them for $200k in a loan. you know what? you'd get it - even if you lost your job in 2009 and the comps in your area continued to decline by 10+% for the next couple years. also, if the bank sold your loan to someone at 10 cents on the dollar after they gave you the money under FAS 157 you could write off your mortgage to $25k! I wish we had mark to market - we'd all have huge gains by writing down our liabilities.

Guest Thu Apr 2 11:00:12 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Crispy:

I see this as a (relatively) short-term thing and am most concerned now about the ultimate collapse of the currency. When that happens, then I'd expect a true depression as the economy has to reset itself to vastly different levels of government expenditures.

right now, the Fed is largely sponsoring credit within the economy but even they will be shut down as an effective force by the refusal of the rest of the world to accept payment in dollars for it's commodities and goods.

homedad43 Thu Apr 2 11:00:19 2009 CDT #

Kung Fu Panda says:

Thanks, Byzantine,
That is a good paper, just from my scan of the first part. I was doing some research for an export business idea I had and found this at the Dept of Commerce's site describing Indonesia:

"Much needed economic and political reform remain the main impediments to Indonesia’s economic development. The unpredictable nature of the judicial process and the arbitrary actions of local officials are two problems cited by many businesses as particularly difficult to overcome. In some cases, judges rule against foreigners in commercial disputes, ignoring the facts of the case and the contracts between the parties. It is also difficult to get international arbitration awards enforced by Indonesian courts, often leaving no recourse for international investors. The Government of Indonesia’s (GOI) policy of decentralizing political power, although well intentioned, has given local leaders greater authority, which has been used in some provinces to levy unanticipated fees and extract additional services that add to the financial burden of foreign investors. In a few high-profile cases, Indonesia has applied criminal penalties for commercial or environmental infractions that are typically covered by civil law in most countries."

Unpredictable judicial process and arbitrary government action...sounds familiar to me.

Kung Fu Panda Thu Apr 2 11:01:52 2009 CDT #

the man from nantucket says:

double post from last thread because MS may not see it in a dead thread:

MS:

yes, AMZN, now I recall. My memory not being crystal clear from a months old issue, i'd love to go back and read the relavent posts before I make any other statements (now i'm curious to see what i wrote back then). And if I am completley off/wrong, I'll offer an apology. I have no problem with that.

Who can tell me how to search posts by author to take a look at that? much appreciated.

the man from nantucket Thu Apr 2 11:02:58 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I believe the Hilton family sold their hotel business at the peak of the market.

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 11:03:42 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Denninger:

BEN: SOLD TO YOU!

CRbot Thu Apr 2 11:04:27 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I believe the Hilton family sold their hotel empire at the peak of the market a few years ago.

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 11:04:54 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

“I believe the Hilton family sold their hotel business at the peak of the market.

to Blackstone

Basel Too Thu Apr 2 11:08:00 2009 CDT #

REBear says:

The G20 communique resolves to set up a Financial Stability Board to give early warnings of financial risks and predict future crises.

REBear Thu Apr 2 11:08:53 2009 CDT #

Comrade Elmer Fudd says:

competitors in the Las Vegas market follow a strategy of sacrificing ADR (average daily room rate)

also known as supply and demand

such a bitch on the downside

Comrade Elmer Fudd Thu Apr 2 11:11:41 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Thanks, Byzantine,
That is a good paper, just from my scan of the first part.

As you can imagine, there is a big rush of interest in this. That is the current taxonomy and that paper was the foundation for the seminal essay in the seminal reader of the current spew of interest.

His problem is he's obviously a product of the policy / defense petting zoo for gelded intellectuals and he can't see a world without the establishment he serves.

Check out Christopher Clapham as well. I think "The Global-Local Politics of State Decay" and "The Challenge To The State In A Global World" or something? One for the Rotberg reader, one for some woman's reader, I think _State Failure and Reconstruction_?

His problem is that he knows he's writing for a western Establishment audience so he leaves out the part where the obvious conclusion from reading his essay is that the Western states all have questions of viability as well. But it's informative.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 11:13:19 2009 CDT #

picosec says:

Interesting that an increase in factory of 1.8% is seen as quite a positive; while lost in the small print is that the previous month was revised down 1.6% - net 2 month increase is 0.2% (subject to further revision).

The noise overwhelms the data!

picosec Thu Apr 2 11:15:31 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

Volume is up - both NYSE and NAZ

popeye Thu Apr 2 11:15:39 2009 CDT #

Gavshire Hathaway says:

"As I have said for a few months now...things are improving in my business... the first Q was strong...the Depression-istas are running scared...LOL!!!"

Not disputing that things are improving in your business. But I'm not running scared, and I will win the war. Study history.

oh. And LOL back at ya.

Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 11:17:25 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

sorry forgot to post the source:
http://sharkinvesting.com/volume.aspx

popeye Thu Apr 2 11:18:11 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

http://railfax.transmatch.com/#TotCharts

Railfax for the 28th is up.

Looks like the TEU rebound is continuing. Anyone on the rail side who can comment on this please?

the 13 weeks are starting to show some positive movement but the overall trend continues to point down.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 11:21:27 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"refusal of the rest of the world to accept payment in dollars for it's commodities and goods."

That won't happen. The rest of the world will just require a greater amount of dollars to cover any risk. Oh, and a higher interest rate on the T-Bills. Banks will have to compete with. As a result they will have to raise interest rates on CD's and savings. And then...mortgage loans, resulting in buyers having less available for that monthly payment and cheaper houses. That is when savers will get their payback, since they will be able to buy a house, cash.

Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 11:21:47 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

LOL.

CNBC just posted that Cramer is calling a bottom to the recession.

ESPN just posted that the Cubs are odds-on favorites to win the Series.

homedad43 Thu Apr 2 11:24:06 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

--
Was CRE as overbuilt as the RRE 15 months ago, CR?

Jas

Jas Thu Apr 2 11:24:31 2009 CDT #

crispy and cole says:

Gavshire Hathaway - Just trying to bring some reality back to what is happening on the ground (nothing personal against anyone). I was very bearish, that said, I think we have some positives out there...not saying were are going back to the levels in 2003-2006, because we are not, however, we are not going to have a depression...my two cents

crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 11:25:46 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

Spiderman, effortlessly scaling the wall of worry ahead of Mar jobs. Good setup to scalp some longs tomorrow.

bearly Thu Apr 2 11:26:48 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Holy Crap this rally is nuts. 850 is where we hit a lot of overhead supply. If we close there I'll have to cover some things.

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 11:27:43 2009 CDT #

Br\'er Dawg says:

Railfax for the 28th is up.
Looks like the TEU rebound is continuing.

Huh? Nothing but Elmo. What are you looking at? As confirmed:

http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp

Br\'er Dawg Thu Apr 2 11:28:00 2009 CDT #

ghostfacedinvestah says:

The side effect of this stock market rally is it is sending Treasury rates up, and thereby raising mortgage rates, hurting one of the things the government is counting on the get us out of this mess.

TBAs are selling off slightly, but the Fed really has the mortgage basis compressed (about 120bps, pretty low for the past few months). If/when the Fed takes their boot off the neck of those spreads, mortgage rates would shoot up to 6% pretty quickly. No one else is buying MBS (other than hedgers), because you take on Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk, and the belief is the government would easily let them default on their debt before the US govt defaulted on Treasuries, if it came to that, which it might.

Without the Fed in the market, spreads would easily be 100bps higher.

Combined with an increase in the 10 year, this little piece of stimulus (lower mortgage rates) could be very short lived.

ghostfacedinvestah Thu Apr 2 11:29:55 2009 CDT #

MS says:

Nantucket-

I've no idea how to do that.....with all the changes this system has had over the last several months I'd think the time spent doing it manually would be a bit over-the-top.

guest-

resulting to personal attacks is just so clever...you've really shown what angle you are coming from. I've not attacked you, just your cyclical argument......but I see that you can't have a rational discussion so you resort to pettiness.

Good luck with that.

Ciao
MS

MS Thu Apr 2 11:32:17 2009 CDT #

steelhead says:

Homedad 43:

April Fools Day was yesterday.<img src="../../extra/tiny_mce/plugins/emotions/img/smiley-smile.gif" title="Smile" border="0" alt="Smile"/>

steelhead Thu Apr 2 11:32:45 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Blackhalo:

Usually agree with what you post but what I'm thinking is this.

W/China starting to accept local E Asia trade settlement in Yuan, and their agreement w/Argentina to handle trade in RMB, the genie is out of the bottle for movement away from dollar as global reserve currency. This is only the start, esp as the Arab states will probably look for another way to accept payment. SDRs? Who knows? But it ain't gonna just be the dollar going forward and that will spell inflation as the continued printing drives ROW away from dollar.

Gee, down the road, housing values might drop to point that could be bought with cash. But the preceding inflationary pressures will be destructive to savers and the reset from the Treasury rate rise (cutbacks due to excessive debt service) will be devastating to an economy so dependent on government spending.

Simply put, absolute economic chaos until your endpoint is reached.

homedad43 Thu Apr 2 11:33:12 2009 CDT #

Gavshire Hathaway says:

Crispy, not taking it personal. I just disagree. If you recall, there were several points during the great depression where people thought things were improving. And they did, for a time, until they crashed again. This is the first time we're seeing even the faintest signs of improvement, which should be expected with the monumental efforts the government is taking. This will prove to be a false bottom, like so many that have occurred throughout history.

Our government is throwing $12 trillion at the problem, attempting to prop up zombie companies. They are aggressively using propoganda to arrest asset price declines, and restore confidence in the giant ponzi scheme. But it is a misallocation of resources, and the real economy is dying - evidenced by spiking unemployment, lack of investment, poor earnings, and the continued deterioration of household balance sheets. The real economy will not improve until household debt levels decline significantly.

It takes amazing hubris to think that we can avoid a depression, just because we've somehow conquered modern economic theory. As far as I'm concerned they can print all the paper they want. It won't do a damn bit of good, and it in fact may make matters worse.

Good luck on your bet -- If you're right, my hat will be off to you.

Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 11:35:01 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

We MIGHT have hit the bottom at 6500, yes. But the EFFECTS of the recession will hit bottom, and stay at the bottom, through all of 2010 and beyond. The layoffs that are still coming nationally this summer will make heads spin. The biggest parts of the world of hurt lay ahead.

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 11:36:39 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Stock market in a love fest with the unemployment numbers.

Michael Thu Apr 2 11:36:43 2009 CDT #

Br\'er Dawg says:

Was CRE as overbuilt as the RRE 15 months ago, CR? - Jas

We get it Jas. What's the point of your inability to move on?

Br\'er Dawg Thu Apr 2 11:37:56 2009 CDT #

S says:

Gavshire Hathaway says:
Today, 12:35:01 PM

Don;t forget that almost all of the better numbers are off prior month serious revisions down. Watch whayt is happening not what they are sayiong. thew gov;'t hasn;t any mroe mmunition so they are pruely in the confidence business at thuis point. Expect all the numbers to be better as the collusion grows. They call it patriotism others fraud. Depends on whether you are long or not.

S Thu Apr 2 11:38:30 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

"The real economy will not improve until household debt levels decline significantly."

All pulling off THAT trick is going to be harder than relocating the San Diego Zoo to the moons of Jupiter.

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 11:39:25 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Assuming that this rally continues (it will stop at 850 IMO) the market will still face years of overhead supply. Which mom and pop investors will stomach losing 50% see it come back 30% and not sell. I say no oner 40.

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 11:40:07 2009 CDT #

Bob Dobbs says:

I know a couple of guys in their 60s who are candidates for that. One might not sell , though; he's written it all off in his mind. Hasn't bothered to open the little statement envelopes for months.

Parent Post

Bob Dobbs Thu Apr 2 11:58:08 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

BRIEF-U.S. House passes bill giving FDA power to regulate tobacco products
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7253756&action=article

Got a prescription for that pack of smokes Sonny. You drunks are next.

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 11:40:24 2009 CDT #

Interesting Times says:

It's a long fall back to 666 from here... just sayin

Interesting Times Thu Apr 2 11:41:55 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

Great point, 2012.

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 11:42:13 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

U.S. House passes bill giving FDA power to regulate tobacco products

I says something that Philip Morris is the only industry proponent of that bill.

Basel Too Thu Apr 2 11:42:20 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

cd The volatility is up here. My shorts are sweating a bit...

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 11:42:31 2009 CDT #

Br\'er Dawg says:

With negative earnings on the S&P does the market rise mean the P/E ratio is getting "less worserer" or "more not badlyness?"

Br\'er Dawg Thu Apr 2 11:43:46 2009 CDT #

REBear says:

c&c,
I would really like to really know what you are seeing.
tia

REBear Thu Apr 2 11:44:11 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

We all know how the stock market is manipulated thanks to Cramer and Jon Stewart on the Daily Show.

Jim Cramer and Jon finally face off
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=220533

Michael Thu Apr 2 11:44:45 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

A timeless classic

Parent Post

Michael Thu Apr 2 11:50:40 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Rob Dawg

That's what's interesting. Look at the 4 week line for intermodal rail. Something is moving. Held stocks kept containerized maybe? Is containerization just absorbing traffic due to attractive rates I'm curious if someone in rail freight booking could share with us any info on this, pretty please?

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 11:45:26 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Br'er Dawg

Smoke and Teleprompters my firend, smoke and teleprompters.

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 11:46:02 2009 CDT #

Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:

To the person looking for something to follow comments on the Treo, you can try this, it might be mobile-friendly enough (could potentially produce large output), but to post you would have to click through: http://crmobile.subbuteoclub.com/

Dead_Monkey_Bounce Thu Apr 2 11:48:04 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Which mom and pop investors will stomach losing 50% see it come back 30% and not sell."

I suspect that there are a LOT of boomers who got caught by this downturn being a little too greedy. But CNBC is going to spin this as the buying opportunity of the century.

The next new low, and I am convinced there will be one, will clean their clocks.

The gov, as usual is doing everything wrong first, before getting around to doing something right. Since the Gov is now allowing banks to fudge the numbers on assets, they are going to have to learn the hard way that a lack of trust leads to a lack of value. At some point the market will force them to re-establish that trust. Either that, or we will go Zimbabwe.

Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 11:50:43 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

BlackHalo

"The next new low, and I am convinced there will be one, will clean their clocks. "

I think that this will be the case.

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 11:52:51 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

Another example of what's good for stocks is terrible, terrible news for employment:

PITTSBURGH (AP) - United States Steel Corp. said Thursday it is delaying indefinitely a $1 billion upgrade of a coke plant near Pittsburgh to cut costs as the global economic downturn saps demand for steel. ¶
The Pittsburgh-based company has said the project at the Clairton plant was expected to create more than 600 construction jobs and ensure thousands of existing jobs. The improvements were meant to reduce environmental emissions at the plant, the country’s largest production facility for coke - coal that’s baked and used as a fuel in steel making. ¶
The move was another indication of the toll taken on steel companies by the global economic crisis. U.S. Steel has laid off thousands of workers since late last year, when demand and prices plummeted for the metal used in everything from autos to appliances. Last year’s sudden slump came just weeks after some steel makers posted record profits. ¶
"The ongoing global economic crisis has forced the company to make difficult but necessary decisions in all areas of our operations," the company said in a statement. "These conditions have forced us to delay the Clairton Investment Program and we cannot speculate as to when conditions will improve enough to allow work to resume." ¶
Shares of U.S. Steel rose $2.83, or 12.5 percent, to $25.45 in early afternoon trading Thursday. ¶

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 11:53:20 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

I sure wish you guys would hurry up and reach agreement on your long term issues.

popeye Thu Apr 2 11:55:31 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

Can we just sell Michigan to another country?

DETROIT (WXYZ) - The Detroit Public Schools' mounting deficit is expected to be nearly $306 million by the end of the fiscal year, according to estimates from emergency financial manager Robert Bobb released today.
The Detroit News is reporting the district will need to institute a multi-year deficit reduction plan that includes about 20 school closures for the fall and thousands of layoffs.

Bobb said up to 30 additional schools could be closed the following year.

The revised deficit amount is more than $100 million greater than Bobb recently estimated it would be, illustrating the dire financial straits and sloppy accounting in the troubled system.

Bobb's changes also include rooting out corruption.

He has hired an auditor general and a former agent for the Federal Bureau of Investigation to act as the district's Inspector General. The district has netted more than 500 tips to the newly instituted anonymous phone hotline, (313) 870-3725, and e-mail address, financialmanager@detroitk12.org.

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 11:55:59 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Can we just sell Michigan to another country?"

The Canadians might be interested in picing up the Red Wings as part of the package.

It would be interesting to see how many would "emigrate" to Canada if sush a thing were to happen.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 12:04:43 2009 CDT #

Gavshire Hathaway says:

I'm all in short -- puts are locked and loaded. Wish me luck!

Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 11:58:26 2009 CDT #

Danjo says:

Agree with other posters that it is positive to see a few weeks of improvements in the numbers of containers moved by rail.

Anyone know what is up with the sudden drop in coal movements by the western railroads in week 13? Coal has mostly held up until now, but I'm seeing a 26% drop in coal movements for UNP and 28% for BNI this past week if I'm reading the traffic reports correctly.

Danjo Thu Apr 2 12:00:17 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Anyone know what is up with the sudden drop in coal movements by the western railroads in week 13?"

Winter is over? Power plants cut orders until AC season?

Parent Post

Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 12:07:36 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

Gavshire,
I'm on the other side. Good luck.

popeye Thu Apr 2 12:01:18 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"I'm on the other side."

As someone who has started to accumulate FAZ calls, that is reassuing for me to hear. You seem to post regularly, just before a 500pt. drop, and a new low.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Thu Apr 2 12:10:53 2009 CDT #

nades says:

Gav has made some coin(z)!

:-D

Good luck Gav!

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:16:45 2009 CDT #

MS says:

gav-

be careful....they still have one bullet left. The uptick rule...

It's a huge smokescreen however I'm thinking that alot of people are doing exactly what you are now..what better way to continue to rally and clean out even more shorts?

They've managed to be very transparent in there ability to manipulate upwards....I don't see that ending any time soon. Survivability of a broken system depends on it.

Ciao
MS

MS Thu Apr 2 12:03:48 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

Gav thats a brave move. Im sittng back right now. I think the S&P might move up to 925 ish. That said, I ntl just sold the SSO I bought on Monday.

Barley Thu Apr 2 12:04:16 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Popeye.
You will either
A) go down with the ship
B) be lost at sea meadering for years over open water (more lilely).

Just MO

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 12:04:19 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

@GH

I would be creful to maybe keep 50% cash at least.

Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Apr 2 12:07:10 2009 CDT #

nades says:

EHP if you're here.

This cements your theory that smaller businesses are what need to be looked at as they are on the margin. (I think it was you, if not dryfly?)

Its a like from the last thread. Worth reading for those that havent. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/02/54377/the-invoicing-crunch/

The little guys are getting worked. Tho I think that the author (perhaps intentionally) doesnt acknowledge the link between banks having money and credit terms from suppliers. I'd arugue that they are related. FWIW....

nades Thu Apr 2 12:14:26 2009 CDT #

ghostfacedinvestah says:

c&c

As for a rebound, my wife is in enterprise software sales (a publicly traded company I will not name), and first quarter sales were abysmal across the board, not just her but all her colleagues. Same story for a lot of her friends in other companies. I am sure some companies had decent quarters, or will "outperform" severly depressed estimates, but there is real fear in the corporate world about spending money, even for software with very positive ROIs and a quick payback period.

Demand is down all over, and employees at some of her customers, other tech companies with billion dollar market caps, are telling her they can't buy because they might not survive.

The government can manipulate the money supply and accounting all it wants, but unless the real economy starts to turn around in a big way really quickly, we are in for a world of hurt from where I sit.

I do agree we won't have the GD2, I see something more like a massive stagflation. BB is trying to avoid GD2 by trying things that have never been tried before. But so far I don't see any reaction in the real economy to all this money flooding into the system, other than to the mortgage originators who I work with making transaction fees by brokering loans for Fannie and Freddie to sell to BB. That is a zero sum game since it kills buyers of premium MBS, and very unsustainable since it has effectively crowded out any other MBS buyers in the market.

ghostfacedinvestah Thu Apr 2 12:15:13 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Pittsburgh-Detroit
Let Detroit export and Pittsburgh can import and allow the 12 and 13 year olds to work in the mills again. See? Simple -Problem solved. Next?

Anonymous Thu Apr 2 12:16:34 2009 CDT #

cd says:

look at the vix....its just not buying this rally...

MS-uptick rule could be a boon for short etf's I believe...

cd Thu Apr 2 12:17:35 2009 CDT #

nades says:

cd - can short etfs function with the uptick rule? wouldnt it mess up their mechancis as well?

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:20:58 2009 CDT #

Gavshire Hathaway says:

XLF has stalled. We've had a 26-27% runup from the S&P lows of 666. We're approaching major overhead resistance of 850 and/or 880.

There is simply going to be too much incentive for shorts to enter the market at this point, combined with lots of selling pressure from John Q. Public who has lost faith in the markets, but managed to get a portion of his losses back in this bear rally.

Everybody knows the uptick rule will be re-instated. Similarly we know it doesn't make difference. Everybody knows the banks will be cooking their books and showing a profit. I'd rather lose another 30% of my portfolio now, than risk missing out on the 200-300% returns I'll get if I time this correctly.

Until equities look safe for a long term investment, rather than a short term trade, we will not see the upside that some are expecting.

Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 12:19:03 2009 CDT #

ghostfacedinvestah says:

"It's a long fall back to 666 from here... just sayin"

Umm:

Jan 6th: 934 close
Mar 9th: 676 close
Today: 840 ish...

Not a long fall at all from the numbers I am looking at.

ghostfacedinvestah Thu Apr 2 12:21:11 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

Until equities look safe for a long term investment, rather than a short term trade, we will not see the upside that some are expecting.

Sorta like buying a house for cash flow (bonds, preferred) or appreciation (common)

Basel Too Thu Apr 2 12:21:48 2009 CDT #

nades says:

B2 I'd say buying a house for appreciation wasnt only common it was rampant! WAHHOOO ! ! ! ! :-D

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:24:27 2009 CDT #

MS says:

very well said ghost....

there is a very concerted effort to turn us into mexico. Reality, or actual results, do not matter at this point. Only thing that matters is the ability to inflate the whole thing so that it returns to where it was. This market has the feel of 2007...the bloat to 14k. Not saying it returns to that level however at some point reality does matter...it certainly used to in the bond market. People forget all too quickly what all this bailout money is designed to do...protect the large debt-holder's.

It's just ridiculous that arguments are made that "rules have to be followed" as if they were never there in the first place. It's that they were never enforced in real terms. Simply saying they exist is not a defense to change the rules again if the outcome is not what the system desires.

Ciao
MS

MS Thu Apr 2 12:25:17 2009 CDT #

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:

PITTSBURGH (AP) - Boeing Co. said Thursday it received orders for just SIX passenger and freight jets in March, down sharply from the same month a year earlier, as the global economic slowdown keeps battering aircraft demand. ¶
During the same month last year, Boeing booked orders for 99 jetliners, according to figures posted on the company’s Web site. ¶
The Chicago-based aerospace giant has been hit by dramatically lower orders for commercial planes this year as the recession deepens and air travel wanes. Airlines have cut flights and some carriers have delayed orders or deliveries of new jets. And the credit crisis has made it more difficult for potential buyers to get loans for new planes. ¶
But Boeing has said it would provide financing of about $1 billion to customers, if necessary. ¶

That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Apr 2 12:26:58 2009 CDT #

nades says:

"But Boeing has said it would provide financing of about $1 billion to customers, if necessary."

That sounds like a fools bet if I've ever heard of one. Then again what other options do they have? The build planes after all...

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 12:30:01 2009 CDT #

cd says:

nades,

someone correct me if wrong (more often than not)

existing shares will continue to exist, however, after they are redeemed, it will be harder to issue new shares. This will lead to fewer short ETF shares in the market and drive the price up.

the NAV is calculated by taking the total assets of the ETF, less liabilities, divided by the number of ETF shares outstanding - fewer outstanding shares = higher price

I believe skf spikes came into play when they did it in august...

smarter people thoughts always welcome..should be majority of you....

cd Thu Apr 2 12:32:52 2009 CDT #

nades says:

cd- got it. thanks!

Parent Post

nades Thu Apr 2 13:21:37 2009 CDT #

popeye says:

"I'd rather lose another 30% of my portfolio now, than risk missing out on the 200-300% returns I'll get if I time this correctly."

Time frames always make me crazy. I bought my positions this morning. I took some profits shortly afternoon. I continue to hold half of what I bought, but will be in cash before the market closes no matter what happens.

There is no possibility I would sit and watch 30% of my portfolio get eaten up by a loosing bet.

popeye Thu Apr 2 12:32:56 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

"We're approaching major overhead resistance of 850 and/or 880"
Gav

I think we will blow throught these and sail up to 925/950. Then we will test some lows. Earning are the tell! And, I cant see many posting good results when the top line drops 20-30%.....

Question: WTF is up w/ Utiliites?? They usually dont drop 50-60% in tough times....Unless of course we are seeing huge wholesale reduction in demand...

Barley Thu Apr 2 12:33:25 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

PITTSBURGH (AP) - <i>Boeing Co. said Thursday it received orders for just SIX passenger and freight jets in March, down sharply from the same month a year earlier, as the global economic slowdown keeps battering aircraft demand. ¶
During the same month last year, Boeing booked orders for 99 jetliners, according to figures posted on the company’s Web site.</i>

-93% sales. Yah, that and the GM BK will just about do it for GD2. That does in fact appear to be the ballgame, goatherders.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 12:34:57 2009 CDT #

crispy and cole says:

Let me be clear...I am not making a stock market call. I was short and I am now in cash. There is far too much government intervention to be long or short.

My point is not all sectors of the economy are hurting. If you are on Wall Street or in RRE, yeah you are F'd! However, there are some areas that are performing better than others (off a lowered base, I will give you that) and showing signs of either bottoming or improving...maybe a false bottom, could be.

crispy and cole Thu Apr 2 12:35:56 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] says:

I'm with you Gav, except I have a nice collection of junk bonds, against my puts.

1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 12:37:38 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

maybe a false bottom, could be.

Don't confute the two issues. One, we had a credit panic. Terms of credit changed. That just caused a grave disruption. That's over. Also, the economy is about 20% smaller. Puff. That little headshot there will be catching up with us as the fight and flight response trails off over the next little while, and all sorts of countries and major companies will go bankrupt.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Apr 2 12:42:14 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

popeye, lol!!

Barley Thu Apr 2 12:42:27 2009 CDT #

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