Comments for "Autos: Cerberus Loses Equity, New GM CEO Says Bankruptcy"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4026774192450485607
CRbot Mon Mar 30 17:08:33 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
I am surprised :-P
Lucifer Mon Mar 30 17:08:42 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What does a BK look like? I remember the last roun of discussions and it seemed like Armageddon was coming to Middle America. Anything changed since then?
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 17:09:29 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"What does a BK look like? I remember the last roun of discussions and it seemed like Armageddon was coming to Middle America. Anything changed since then?"
I'm pretty sure it means the creditors (including pensions) become the new stock holders. Old stockholders get 0. If the post BK entity can be profitable sans debt, it keeps going. If not, assets are sold off, to the highest bidder and the creditors split the proceeds. Apparently there are several "tranches" of creditors for who gets paid first. I have heard that CDS is at the top of that list, but have not seen proof.
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:38:08 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
CDS can keep any collateral they are holding of the BK co. (by special exption in 2004), but otherwise they get in line like other creditors. GM is the referend, I don't think even GMAC wrote any CDS
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1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:44:06 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
The real question is what are AIG and other big underwriters' exposure to CDS, to whom, and will the Treasury pay them off if they can't.
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1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:47:00 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
He's not buying CDS up he's paying them off. A federal judge has stated that CDS on sham transactions or if commercially impracticable are likely to be void. (Hoosier v John Hancock, Ambac)
Did AIG try for any injunctions? Why not?
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1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:50:02 2009 CDT #
nades says:
"Did AIG try for any injunctions? Why not?" ~yogi
Cause it wasnt their money.... ;)
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nades Mon Mar 30 18:40:45 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
No surprise; why else did the administration step up so smartly to guarantee the warranties. Their next bundle of aid for GM is probably short-term financing for the bankruptcy period -- or includes it.
Bob Dobbs Mon Mar 30 17:09:59 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
henderson looks like detective taggart from "beverly hills cop"
Basel Too Mon Mar 30 17:10:36 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
i'm sure lots of banks still hold the debt, but it should be marked to < 10 by now i would think.
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 17:10:57 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
This should spur some major hedge fund redemptions.
ghostfacedinvestah Mon Mar 30 17:11:35 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
They should split Jeep off from Chrysler... .. it's the only part of that company worth a damn
citiprank Mon Mar 30 17:11:46 2009 CDT #
Woody says:
CF wonders if any banks still hold Chrysler debt? Wasn't the point of the previous long drawn-out bailout to let all the smart money and half-way smart money to get out, leaving only widows and orphans holding the stock for largely sentimental reasons?
Woody Mon Mar 30 17:13:42 2009 CDT #
Comrade_Terry says:
LawyerLiz, my experience with Countrywide's proprietary software (CLUES) is that it would steer you to the product that was most profitable for Countrywide. It had nothing to do with what was appropriate for the borrower. You, as a closing attorney (I value your professional function, and respect you as an individual) are looking at this through a very narrow aperature.
Comrade_Terry Mon Mar 30 17:14:13 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Maybe Wag was told to go because he refused to file bk?
Bk with D in P financing sounds sensible.
I was gonna leave, but then got sucked into a new post!
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 30 17:14:22 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
anyone want to guesstimate what total workforce at the auto makers, suppliers, and dealers, etc., could be compared to current number?
how big a force of people would be jobless?
also, any precedent on pensions and if/how much they get haircut in situations like this?
the man from nantucket Mon Mar 30 17:14:27 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"anyone want to guesstimate what total workforce at the auto makers, suppliers, and dealers, etc., could be compared to current number? "
I would be curious how that number compares to the banking, mortgage and RE/CRE piece of the pie
Also of interest would be who contributes more as a function of revenue to campaigns. I guess you would have to include UAW on the auto side...
Both of these industries are getting an awful lot of help compared to say the retail industries, or small and medium busineess in gerneral. When is to big to fail going to be just, too big?
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:20:37 2009 CDT #
fallonPDX says:
Blackhola,
The auto industry actually produces something supports a huge supply chain and a huge debt finance industry. Where as most retail either imports crap to wear or adorn your tract house with or sells crap to eat to adorn your tract house toilet.
Parent Post
fallonPDX Mon Mar 30 17:23:26 2009 CDT #
fallonPDX says:
Not that I would ever buy an American car. We are just trying to prop up our industrial base. Otherwise we become fast tracked to end of empire scenarios where life is just one big value meal.
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fallonPDX Mon Mar 30 17:25:30 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
Not that I would ever buy an American car - fallon PDX
I wouldn't be caught dead driving a foreign car.
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bcg Mon Mar 30 18:24:18 2009 CDT #
campbeln says:
What do you mean? A "foreign" car like a Ford built in Mexico, or a Toyota built in Huntsville, Alabama; Georgetown, Kentucky; Princeton, Indiana; San Antonio, Texas; or Buffalo, West Virginia?
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campbeln Mon Mar 30 19:29:39 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Blackhalo, re: manufacturing/retail/RE
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/ScxYRh4-K4I/AAAAAAAAGTA/mIWhv-uVO6A/s1600-h/cpr.png
sector earnings over the last 5 quarters from http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/
with pretty colors!
not making a point, just sprinkling context
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EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 30 17:24:30 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/ "
Thanks, EHP. Interesting context.
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:30:20 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
We should give the widows and orphans automatic rifles... might solve several problems at once
citiprank Mon Mar 30 17:14:52 2009 CDT #
Elrod says:
Might lead to another nursing home shooting...
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Elrod Mon Mar 30 20:49:00 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
henderson looks like detective taggart from "beverly hills cop"
I'm hearing an implicit 'put a banana in his tailpipe' reference there.
sportsfan Mon Mar 30 17:15:40 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
BHO is cleaning up GWB's mess...bk should have been done last year!
crispy and cole Mon Mar 30 17:16:09 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
Master of the Universe becoming Skeletor
Some Investor Guy Mon Mar 30 17:16:33 2009 CDT #
Divide.by.0 says:
As they say: "You kill the chicken to scare the monkey..."
Which one is the monkey?
Divide.by.0 Mon Mar 30 17:16:45 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Which one is the monkey?"
After watching South Park, I would say you and me...
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 18:04:59 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
All I'm saying is my particular broker, when steered in this direction by Countryfried, steered in the opposite direction, and did usually get the desired fixed rate financing. Others did not do so.
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 30 17:17:09 2009 CDT #
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich says:
What do you call pier loans when the pier burns down?
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich Mon Mar 30 17:17:13 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Crispy... you know Bush was hoping this would all take about 4 more months to bubble over.. I'm sure that behind the scenes bush and his people were trying to shore the whole pile of crap up for just long enough to dump it on either mccain or Obama...
Too bad for him.. but he failed..... imagine how differently this would be viewed if bush could have bought an extra 6 months or so
citiprank Mon Mar 30 17:17:53 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
O/T: http://img113.imageshack.us/img113/7461/doggieg.jpg
Also: Bill Gross and GM bankruptcy should be more fun than Flowers and Hypo
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 30 17:18:13 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
What do you call pier loans when the pier burns down?
Sink or swim loans.
sportsfan Mon Mar 30 17:18:40 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Underwater!!
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 30 17:18:58 2009 CDT #
fallonPDX says:
and Nardelli gets to keep his job because of why? oh yeah the supply chain management experience he brought over from Home Depot. cause cars and housing are the same?
oh wait.....
so the Italians get 6 billion free dollars for consumating the relationship. not a bad day's pay. i wonder how said CEO took it....the terms of the bailout that is...i know how the taxpayer is gonna take it.
fallonPDX Mon Mar 30 17:19:27 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
"Cerberus Capital Management will lose its equity stake in Chrysler" - CR
That's gonna leave a mark on more than a few university endowments.
No biggie, the true worth of a man (or Cerberus) is determined after he has lost everything!
Zero!
Angry Saver Mon Mar 30 17:19:35 2009 CDT #
Nakul says:
I think it's very sweet. The PE fund gets zero, but the real investors, the senior debt holders who provide the majority of funding for this madness, will be made whole or at least given equity as a swap. They should really be made to feel extreme pain so that they understand that they remember it every time they get a PE debt propectus again.
The whole idea that buying a company that on a good day is worth $1 billion off a crazy equity market that places it at $5 billion for a small premium of an additional $5 billion was complete madness. That was not investing it was putrid crap. Of course the PE firms and their mindless college endowment investors need to be wriiten off, but so should their enablers, the senior debt holders.
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Nakul Mon Mar 30 22:55:33 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
citiprank - yes, bush was a 100% failure...and so was having the CON's in control during 100% of this runup (Jan2001 to Jan2007). I hope we learn from this that tax cuts for the rich and deregulation are not the answer!
crispy and cole Mon Mar 30 17:20:23 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
They're guaranteeing our bank deposits already so why not the banks?
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 17:20:57 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
forgot to sign in again
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1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:23:41 2009 CDT #
alybaba says:
Don't know if shared already or not, but here are some good pictures of the recession:
http://www.slate.com/id/2214649/
alybaba Mon Mar 30 17:21:00 2009 CDT #
anon says:
Bk ahoulda been in 2005 when they had to spin off gmac.
anon Mon Mar 30 17:22:45 2009 CDT #
anon says:
another new ceo, another multi-million dollar paypackage upon retirement.
anon Mon Mar 30 17:24:11 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
We are all 3 headed dogs now.
Nitey-nite.
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 30 17:24:47 2009 CDT #
cd says:
I wonder if cereberus pocketed the bailout funds....
cd Mon Mar 30 17:25:02 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
Also, this will not hurt Ceberus (which is run by the CONservatives Snow, Mr. Potatoe head, etc...)...they have Chrysler in a seperate entity, they avoided putting any new money in this crappy company and they will walk away. They will eventually do this with GMAC and all the other crappy companies this group of "the best and brighest" bought during the bubble with OPM...
crispy and cole Mon Mar 30 17:25:08 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"New GM CEO Says Bankruptcy "may be best option.""
Now if only they could apply that reasoning to AIG, Citi and BoA. One upside to a GM BK would be the public aking WTF is the diff. The answer is of course CDS but hopefully that would get them AIG bonus mad at the CDS.
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:26:01 2009 CDT #
cd says:
they still get stake in finance arm
from article
Cerberus, however, will keep a controlling stake in Chrysler's financing arm
cd Mon Mar 30 17:26:09 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Now that more people are away from work, reposting thread music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1upZz3a-7iM
Ukrainian band with a hit single about the stock market
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 30 17:27:28 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
What a disaster who gave the all clear signal for the PBGC to buy???
All wells Cleanup Aisle 3...
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 17:28:17 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Is there a way to autorefresh thes comments yet?
1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:28:32 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
ok using a mozilla add-on
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1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:31:58 2009 CDT #
OkieLawyer says:
On my computer I right click and click on "Reload." Works for me.
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OkieLawyer Mon Mar 30 18:52:15 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
EHP,
Was that you a week or so back that made the comment on EMRATIO being the whole story these days?
Made me update a plot (CIVPART - EMRATIO spread) and look at year over year change in a 3 month MA...that second plot is ugly.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/
energyecon Mon Mar 30 17:29:37 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
I'm actually happy with the public perception of CDS right now.. most people I talk to think they are some kind of scam or bet or dont really know what they are.. but they all think the same thing "CDS = BAD... Wall Street = Crooks"
I'm happy with that public perception.. it's good enough for most people's purposes
citiprank Mon Mar 30 17:29:44 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I'm happy with that public perception.. it's good enough for most people's purposes"
Meanwhile Timmy G. is buying them up as fast as he can? Or is he just buying the MBS to keep the CDS from going boom. In either case the US Treasury is subsidising them at the whim of his banker bosses.
They are not mad enough yet.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:46:22 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
energyecon,
I did follow-up and saw your updated chart. Thanks
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 30 17:30:08 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Shorting Lowes tomorrow
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 30 17:31:29 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Well, POIC was arguing that John Snow would be able to prevent the dilution of cerebrus.
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 17:31:34 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Not Quite OT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Nearly 70 percent of the Pentagon's 96 major weapons-buying programs were over budget in 2008 for combined cost growth of $296 billion above original estimates, congressional auditors said in an annual report released on Monday.
Could this be why we're not talking about BK for the 'make war, not love' industry?
The loans, not purchases, but loans, to the auto industry don't amount to 10% of the cost overruns in 2008 on major weapons purchases.
C'mon, who is gonna stand up and scream "FRAUD" about this.
sportsfan Mon Mar 30 17:32:14 2009 CDT #
Me in MAss says:
Clues, aka Countrywide Loan Underwriting Expert System only underwrote the program you choose - it did not recommend programs. The broker web site however, did provide brokers with a list of programs, and showed the programs that had the highest YSP. And yes, payoption arms did have the highest payout!
Me in MAss Mon Mar 30 17:32:18 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Wow these fancy smart financial types deserve 7 and 8 figure incomes!
Barley Mon Mar 30 17:32:56 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
Wow these fancy smart financial types deserve 7 and 8 figure incomes!-
- wouldn't be so bad if they had 7 and 8 figure tax rates to match.
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bcg Mon Mar 30 18:45:28 2009 CDT #
AShaw says:
Why was the stock only down 25% today? Are the stockholders still hopeful? Looks like the short of the century, if stock is available to short that is.
I bought more long puts as a sure thing.
AShaw Mon Mar 30 17:33:18 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
This is actually the first bit of good news we've heard out of bail-outpalooza in awhile. Now, if they would just apply the same principles to their banking cronies...
RockyR Mon Mar 30 17:33:45 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
LOL!!x5
WASHINGTON - Just months before the start of last year's stock market collapse, the federal agency that insures the retirement funds of 44 million Americans departed from its conservative investment strategy and decided to put much of its $64 billion insurance fund into stocks.
However, Charles E.F. Millard, the former agency director who implemented the strategy until the Bush administration departed on Jan. 20, dismissed such concerns. Millard, a former managing director of Lehman Brothers, said flatly that "the new investment policy is not riskier than the old one."
Barley Mon Mar 30 17:37:33 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Just months before the start of last year's stock market collapse, the federal agency that insures the retirement funds of 44 million Americans departed from its conservative investment strategy and decided to put much of its $64 billion insurance fund into stocks. "
Wow, too bad SSN funds were in T-Bills...
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:40:45 2009 CDT #
Seattle Stew says:
Laugh until you cry! Cry until you laugh! Here's a link to the P.B.G.C.'s Investment Strategy info page:
http://www.pbgc.gov/media/key-resources-for-the-press/content/page13545.html
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Seattle Stew Mon Mar 30 18:27:48 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Keep educating. I had trouble grasping CDS when I started hearing about them. Reggie Middleton's site has a good analysis and The Trillion Dollar Meltdown (released in paperback in 2009 as The 2 Trillion Dollar Meltdown) tells it all.
1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 17:38:01 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
<tbody>
What a disaster who gave the all clear signal for the PBGC to buy???
</tbody>
If nothing else, BushCo was consistent in putting this puppy in the ditch as fat as possible.
adornosghost Mon Mar 30 17:40:31 2009 CDT #
Yoringe says:
firsted
Yoringe Mon Mar 30 17:40:59 2009 CDT #
Bill Hicks says:
<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7210007&page=1">
<h1>The Executive Who Brought Down AIG</h1>
<h2>Joseph Cassano Made More Than $300 Million at the Insurance Firm He Virtually Bankrupted</a></h2>
Bill Hicks Mon Mar 30 17:43:03 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Bankruptcy is the best option for them. It would get them free of their obligations. I read over the weekend that consumers aren't as negative about a bankrupt car company as they are about a car company receiving bailout funds.
reptillian Mon Mar 30 17:43:50 2009 CDT #
alybaba says:
Blackhalo - on CDS
http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2009/03/special-treatment-of-derivatives-in.html
alybaba Mon Mar 30 17:48:59 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Wonderfull. The same BK bill that turned credit card debt from non-recourse to full-recourse, now means that CDS contracts at AIG and GM take priorty over taxpayer dollars?
Money down a hole it is. Bankers made whole, taxpayers and consumers get the shaft.
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:59:08 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
GM probably doesn't have any CDS. Stock and bondholders in GM may have CDS, but with a third party. They lose their equity in BK (bonds may be paid something) and try to collect the CDS hedge.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 18:03:52 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Michigan Consumer Confidence Stabilizing"
I wonder how they feel, post BK?
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/03/michigan-consumer-confidence.html
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 17:53:11 2009 CDT #
foolonthehill says:
Well we learned something about how Obama operates. He gave the auto companies and the unions two chances to clean up their act. When they didn't. POW. And by now he is getting relatively little grief for bankrupting them. And its off his plate.
Just in time for g20. A message against protectionism and maybe more
I do hope the banks get the message
foolonthehill Mon Mar 30 17:54:05 2009 CDT #
alybaba says:
FYI, anyone wanting to understand derivatives in bankruptcy, the link in my previous post gives a decent perspective
alybaba Mon Mar 30 17:54:52 2009 CDT #
Walter Sobchek says:
OVER THE LINE!!!
Walter Sobchek Mon Mar 30 17:57:38 2009 CDT #
Smoky says:
Bullshit Walter.
Smoky Mon Mar 30 17:58:01 2009 CDT #
Bond Girl says:
Obama's "ultimatum" is as empty a gesture as any of the other tough-talk to this point. If any of these participants threaten to tie this up in court, they're more likely than not to make out like bandits.
Bond Girl Mon Mar 30 17:59:46 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The head of Morgan Stanley's infrastructure investment banking in the Americas and two other senior investment bankers in its financial services practice are leaving.
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7245227&action=article
The bastards are heading for the life boats.
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 18:00:07 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
The bastards are heading for the life boats.
- they can run, but they can't hide.
Parent Post
bcg Mon Mar 30 18:51:22 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
released in paperback in 2009.....and for those with a more creative bent:
The Day of The Locust
1939
Nathanael West
Literally
--------------------
Off current topic, I wanted to ask about the electrical car issue-didn't get a chance
When I lived at 7K feet, dry -lot's of static electricity-water boiled at lower temp-took longer to cook so forth
At the other end: sea level, humid
Question:
The diverse geography and climate-change results of battery powered?
Magical Thinking Mon Mar 30 18:00:14 2009 CDT #
Allen C says:
No wonder the mania got out of hand. Seems Calpers made even worse decisions. Nothing like getting hit from all sides. The common folk are going to grow real angry once they figure out how bad they were screwed.
Allen C Mon Mar 30 18:02:02 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Who could have guessed that Cerberus would be a dog?
Tom Stone Mon Mar 30 18:04:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
BlackHalo,
It does appear the 2005 BK changes do protest CDS from automatic stay and moves them up high on the first to be paid during BK.
Real hard to see this crisis as engineered when you discover little tibits such as these from 4 years ago. Might just be my natural suspicious nature though.
http://blawgletter.typepad.com/bbarnett/2009/02/does-the-bankruptcy-code-favor-credit-default-swaps.html
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 18:05:02 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
http://somalimonitor.com/blog/archives/767
Interesting history behind Somali priates, beyond the overfishing. Europe is notorious and shameless in causing harm to the world
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1165888/Fasten-seat-belts-children-new-geography-classroom-landed-playground.html
The UK is reduced to using discarded planes instead of traditional portable buildings, which themselves were used instead of building new schools. Meme becomes reality, and now only 1 step away from using abandoned trucks as buildings
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 18:05:58 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Good link Alybaba. Better explanation than my link.
Anonymous Mon Mar 30 18:07:06 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
It's a game of hot potato. If GM goes BK, it triggers the CDS. Whoever wrote the most, must pay the net. If they go BK, someone else has the potato...
It should not be the US Treasury.
1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 18:09:09 2009 CDT #
ArtVandelay22 says:
FEAR NOT!
The Global Outlook research report, dated 3/25, crossed my desk today. I won't say from which esteemed banking institution this came, but it does rhyme with "Shmarclays".
The subtitle of this report is, I kid you not, "Green Shoots Have Arrived".
Here are some of my notes from the report:
"Baseline scenario: negative momentum will be gradually dominated by policy and natural stabilizers."
"There will be a refi boom in 2009 as interest rates ease."
"No further need for bank capital from governments."
"This is simply a typical "inventory correction" recession, albeit to a massive degree."
"There will be a recovery, with decreasing unemployment, beginning in 2010."
"Emerging market economies will come through this recession in relatively good shape."
"It is implausible that policymakers would not make good on the claims of senior bank debt holders."
So you see, everything is going to be fine!
BTW, I'm only on page 28 of 84.
ArtVandelay22 Mon Mar 30 18:10:13 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
ArtVandelay22,
Reminds me a lot of http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/30/54199/a-not-so-small-rally-in-smallcaps/
but I think HSBC is a lot closer to the mark with http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/30/54186/of-bonds-and-stocks-and-the-weimar-republic/
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 30 18:15:17 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
If the swap is considered common law fraud, BK judge voids it and statutory protection is out.
1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 18:17:15 2009 CDT #
Bob Seegar says:
BIG NEWS TODAY WAS THE PGBC MEGABILLION $$$ HELLHOLE...
A potential powder keg that will make the AIG bonus babies & GM CEO dismissal headlines look like the media diversions "from the real stories" that they truly are...diversions. Media head cheerleader Cramer says there is no catalyst for a potential free fall? Pleeeezzz. http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/30/pension_insurer_shifted_to_stocks/ This would be the equivalent of learning that the largest flood insurance company in the USA had invested all of it's assets in New Orleans real estate! Is anybody home?
Bob Seegar Mon Mar 30 18:19:20 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
back later
1 currency now [yogi] Mon Mar 30 18:19:30 2009 CDT #
Sr. American Mugabe says:
Anonymous says:
Today, 4:05:02 PM
“BlackHalo,
It does appear the 2005 BK changes do protest CDS from automatic stay and moves them up high on the first to be paid during BK.
Real hard to see this crisis as engineered when you discover little tibits such as these from 4 years ago. Might just be my natural suspicious nature though.
Blanket UCC1 filing, and you are the secured creditor. In front of the IRS even.
Sr. American Mugabe Mon Mar 30 18:20:52 2009 CDT #
yagij says:
OT:
crbot, why do you still HALO-IZE these threads?
yagij Mon Mar 30 18:21:37 2009 CDT #
grabbing pennies in front of a steam roller says:
Help me out. Buy those financials. I'm long MS at 22.01, just hoping for lunch money.
grabbing pennies in front of a steam roller Mon Mar 30 18:22:20 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Fraud in the military. Try the USN and their shipbuilding. Especially the ships that were supposed operate close in. Also see the Coast Guard. The usual Bush crap. Major league incomptence and people getting taken care of. Also the Halliburton biz in Iraq which is far from over.
nova Mon Mar 30 18:25:47 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Bob Seegar,
Perhaps I'm being facetious but 1 Megabillion would be (1 x 10^6) billion or 1 quadrillion
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 30 18:26:41 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
A federal judge has stated that CDS on sham transactions or if commercially impracticable are likely to be void. (Hoosier v John Hancock, Ambac)
Did AIG try for any injunctions? Why not?
yogi, that unpublished trial court opinion does not say anything so broad as your comment suggests. The court said:
John Hancock has argued that a decision calling into question the
enforceability of its credit default swap with Ambac would be contrary to the
public interest because such transactions have become so common and because
so many businesses rely upon their validity. The point is a serious one, and it is
<font face="Bookman Old Style">
certainly true that the public interest generally favors the enforcement of
</font>
lawful contracts. In the context of this transaction, however, this argument has little
force. As explained above, the record now before the court tends to show that the
Merom SILO transaction was a blatantly abusive tax shelter from the beginning.
The more general points about the sanctity of contracts do not apply to this
elaborate effort to defraud other taxpayers.
I think blatantly abusive tax shelter, i.e., an illegal contract, sort of trumps an off-the-wall inclusion of a CDS based on Ambac losing its AAA rating.
No precedential value and no persuasive value either so far as I can see.
sportsfan Mon Mar 30 18:29:54 2009 CDT #
Loot and Scoot says:
PGBS shifting to equities. Great timing for a large liquid govt agency to buy up equities large private funds were looking to dump.
Bubba will wake up quick when the pension goes bye bye. Do they(ubiquitous) want riots? Methinks they might.
Loot and Scoot Mon Mar 30 18:30:41 2009 CDT #
ArtVandelay22 says:
Bob Seegar - it's like taking your nest egg and investing in a nice little plot of land on which you plan to build your dream home: in Alamogordo, New Mexico sometime in the Spring of 1945.
ArtVandelay22 Mon Mar 30 18:33:17 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
If the swap is considered common law fraud, BK judge voids it and statutory protection is out.
yogi, you're stretching. There's no fraud involved in CDS. It's a trade in which one party wins and one party loses and it's not entirely clear that the losing party is the one in BK court; hence no jurisdiction for the BK judge to rule on anything.
sportsfan Mon Mar 30 18:33:37 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"I wouldn't be caught dead driving a foreign car."
Some or all of your American car or truck maybe really an import.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 30 18:35:14 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
Some or all of your American car or truck maybe really an import.
-maybe, but in the eyes of an American union worker, it still says Ford, GM, or Chrysler, and I'd rather be driving one of these than not. Anything else is a sellout, IMO.
Parent Post
bcg Mon Mar 30 19:15:45 2009 CDT #
campbeln says:
Agh, appearence over substance then?
Where on earth did 'merica go wrong?
Parent Post
campbeln Mon Mar 30 19:48:09 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
Where on earth did 'merica go wrong?
-the day we started importing foreign cars.
Parent Post
bcg Mon Mar 30 21:59:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"There's no fraud involved in CDS. It's a trade in which one party wins and one party loses and it's not entirely clear that the losing party is the one in BK court; hence no jurisdiction for the BK judge to rule on anything."
But if a GM BK triggers an AIG BK, USGov is out our 80% share and billions in loans?
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 18:38:12 2009 CDT #
Rufus the Doofus says:
If AIG went BK, how would assets be divided between CD claimants and
holders of insurance policies?
Parent Post
Rufus the Doofus Mon Mar 30 20:44:31 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Nova,
supposedly they can't find something like 100 billion that went to various contractors in Iraq.... like they just can't account for it
Not to mention the pallets of cash they "lost" over there
citiprank Mon Mar 30 18:38:26 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
So that's where Mike Brown landed after FEMA.
Mannwich Mon Mar 30 18:39:09 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
I know it was mentioned either here in CR or in Mish's.
Is BK going to cause CDS turmoil? And how bad?
WAWAWA Mon Mar 30 18:43:38 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Is BK going to cause CDS turmoil? And how bad?"
Who could know? If some Geman entity insured thier investment in GM with a German bank and insured the risk failure of the German bank, with AIG... no single party would know what the overall systemic risk is. The worst case I think is if there is a big enough BK to start a cascading CDS unwind.
If AIG, BoA or Citi have to pay off some CDS they might become insolvent. ;)
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 19:08:16 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
So whats the best way to short the USD?
"China, which is pushing to end the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide reserve, has agreed a Rmb70bn currency swap with Argentina that will allow it to receive renminbi instead of dollars for its exports to the Latin American country."
Feature stroy FT/UK
Barley Mon Mar 30 18:44:30 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"So whats the best way to short the USD?"
I've been using UDN.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 19:01:03 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
This, ladies and germs, is what is commonly referred to as 'screwing the pooch'. What a clusterfuck.
volker the viking Mon Mar 30 18:48:25 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
What was the saying?
If the GM goes then the whole nation goes. Or something like that.
WAWAWA Mon Mar 30 18:51:40 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
You know, its funny. This is America. We hate Commies, especially from Russia, and don't have Kings, Monarchs, or Dictators. But we damn near have a Czar for just about everything, which as you know were the Russian name for Kings. Can someone explain?
briwerk Mon Mar 30 18:52:10 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
But if a GM BK triggers an AIG BK, USGov is out our 80% share and billions in loans?
I was replying to yogi's opinion to the effect that CDS can be set aside. I don't believe they can, at least not easily as he seems to suggest.
On your point, though, I suppose a GM BK could trigger an AIG BK if AIG is obligated to pay out large sums in that event. Still the GM BK court wouldn't have jurisdiction to rule on the issue and I am of the opinion that the AIG BK court would not get the chance to rule since the counterparties would seize whatever they could retroactive to a time immediately preceding the AIG BK filing.
sportsfan Mon Mar 30 18:52:14 2009 CDT #
Loot and Scoot says:
May we please have no more bottom calling or pointing out miniscule improvements in horrible govt provided statistics. I know the doomsters rule here but that is because they are correct in reading the obvious billboards of approaching implosion.
We are going from bad to worse and should GM and Chrysler go out of business then what you have is a spillover up and down the food chain. Unions calling for mass protest might be approaching. Of course large masses of people in the street will divert further inquiries into the ever deeping chasm of corruption and theft. Perfect timing for the our financiers and politicos.
Everyone remember the 2 trillion(?) that had all records destroyed by 9-11?
Loot and Scoot Mon Mar 30 19:00:21 2009 CDT #
Cascara Sagrada says:
I've been thinking on CR's prior post about the aging of the American fleet of cars, and the thought that we're hitting bottom and that sales should pick up. Then I thought a lot about how many people I know have more cars than drivers in the family and how easy it would be to just not relicense the oldest, most unreliable. Perhaps there isn't going to be a rebound in auto sales because:
1. People will only own as many cars as there are drivers
2. Cars will not be replaced as job losses mount (surprising how you can get by with less cars if necessary)
3. Since California licensing fees almost double tomorrow, there's incentive to make do with less vehicles.
Cascara Sagrada Mon Mar 30 19:01:01 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
So 70% of pentagon weapons programs were over budget costing 300 billion... SHOCKER.. and that's just what they tell you about... include all the "classified" stuff and the number would be far worse
Like I always say... until you here politicians on either side talk about military spending you know they really dont care about controlling spending at all
citiprank Mon Mar 30 19:03:56 2009 CDT #
cappy says:
So you support the government providing DIP financing, but not non-recourse loans. Since the contents of both of these financings is basically the same (recourse only to the assets of the borrower), I have to assume you have an issue with the naming. Okay, I am being a bit snarky, but my point is, its not the non-recourse nature that you have an issue with--- its the pricing.
cappy Mon Mar 30 19:04:50 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
Had to find bagholders somewhere...I'm guessing this plan to move the PBGC into equities and real estate was hatched a few minutes after the social security privatization plan was finally recognized to be hopeless.
Yalt Mon Mar 30 19:05:34 2009 CDT #
BondsOfSteel says:
I agree with Yalt. Hedge fund trading seems to be about finding the bigger fool. (Fiat)
When there are no bigger fools around, you can always find some unscrupilous/dumb goverment agency. (PBGC)
Parent Post
BondsOfSteel Mon Mar 30 19:12:00 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
The US needs a new political party, a socialist party, perhaps called the "People's Party." It should have a radical agenda of soak the rich taxes, including wealth taxes, and extremely progressive levies. It should take the lead in stirring up the populace to understand what the plutocracy has done to them and what is necessary to pry the plutocrat's greedly fingers off the levers of power. A few marches and, yes, even scary riots would be in order, I should think. A real re-make of America and what it stands for. Back to real democracy and egalitarianism. This crisis could be a golden opportunity to do all this.
Hal Mon Mar 30 19:07:03 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"It should have a radical agenda of soak the rich taxes, including wealth taxes, and extremely progressive levies."
While I am a big fan of any party that has a chance of breaking up the "Two" Party system in the USA... How long would it take for a Party of this nature to become co-opted by its own special interests? And what if they become even modereately successful like MADD, and drift off into crazy town, after meeting thier inital goals and looking for something to justify thier existence.
We just need some way to get some of the money out of politics.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 19:14:41 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: How Iceland Went Mad
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/how-iceland-went-mad.html ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Mon Mar 30 19:10:27 2009 CDT #
Maybe Jas was NOT negative enough says:
If you think PBGC news is bad - look at the public pension system. Jas is soooo right.
http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/03/28/who-killed-the-us-public-pension-system/
Maybe Jas was NOT negative enough Mon Mar 30 19:12:09 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Briwerk: Actually Czar of Tsar is not a term for King but for Emperor. It comes from Caesar, the Roman term for Emperor (after the name of the first politico who attempted to become Emperor) and mutated into the title of Caesar Augustus.
Hal Mon Mar 30 19:13:05 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Revised W$rld Bank forecast out tomorrow.
Feel the rumbling....?
Hoomama.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 30 19:14:35 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
Hal, thank you for that correction. I should have known that it was derived from Caesar, since I've had more than one Latin class and its but a google search away. Still, hopefully my error doesn't detract from the irony, I hope.
briwerk Mon Mar 30 19:15:08 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
...The government is offering an additional $6 billion in capital if the two sides can hammer out an acceptable deal.
...Fiat would be required to build cars and engines in the U.S., and Chrysler would have to pay back the $6 billion before Fiat can take control of Chrysler.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What kind of crooked deal is that ??? I sense mortal danger for FIAT !!!! If FIAT has any sanity it would evade a Chrysler on it’s death bed like the plague . Better save than sorry !
...Henderson told reporters that the company would still prefer to restructure outside of court, but the level of support Washington is offering would help the company quickly restructure through bankruptcy...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And how manny Billions of "printed paper" is that "level of support Washington is offering" ?
....U.S. Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. (PBGC) will probably be taking significant losses on GM and Chrysler pensions...
....Good thing the PBGC invested so wisely recently....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Will that "wipe out" the PBGC ? I mean there are future bankruptcies comming who also need the PBGC. Oh, I see, China will lend them money . No ?
But it’s nice to see that Americans start the price for their irresponsiblities.
Btw, in a non-banana-republic like Germany pension funds are all fully funded ! Guess you would like to have that too ? Hahaha.
Werner Mon Mar 30 19:18:04 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Guess you would like to have that too?"
Meh. I am fine with 401K. Now German health care... that I would like.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 19:26:02 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"but in the eyes of an American union worker" That veiw appears to be on the endangered species list. The Ford Rangers I have bought most recently are Mazdas in all but name. How does that help an American union worker?
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 19:20:57 2009 CDT #
bcg says:
I am in solidarity with American union workers, and express it, in part, with the cars I drive. American cars. I am well aware that some components are from other countries, such as Mexico and Canada, some of whom are unionized and some not. Nevertheless, I never feel embarrassed driving them, as I would were I driving the most luxo foreign job. I know there are many who feel the same as I do. My initial comment was made in response to someone who said they would never buy an American car, and I merely counterbalance that sentiment with my own, nothing more.
Parent Post
bcg Mon Mar 30 19:49:19 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"How does that help an American union worker?"
It does when you consider they lech off of North American wages and Benefits for how many years? GM global car businesses (except Saab) have been profitable, supporting the negative cash flow of NA operations. Most Americans can not start to grasp the global auto market. The hate America auto companies has been beat into the unions and American buyers. I know what I drive.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 30 19:29:32 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
EvilHenryPaulson says:
...Also: Bill Gross and GM bankruptcy should be more fun than Flowers and Hypo...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Really ? Oh, how sad ! So you need to wait for Deutsche Bank ?
Werner Mon Mar 30 19:30:28 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
No complete cars like Mazda repackaged in Ford and Mercury. Pontiac Vibe produced in Fremont CA with Toyota Drive train. Base is a Toyoyta Carrola floor pan. Also packaged as a Toyota Matrix. Pontiac GTO and the G8 Holden of Austriala. The return of the El Camino was canceled to be sold as a Pontiac G8 Sport truck. There was a Saab FWD SUV that was really a Subaru produced when GM had a big stock holding in Subaru. Mazda Navaho was really a Ford Explorer. Chevy Equinox 3.4 Motor from China and the transmission from Japan screwed together in Mexico. Then there is Daewoo in Korea, Vaxual in the UK and Opel in Germany. GM and Ford have been world wide since long before WWII. The cross breeding would amaze you.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 30 19:39:28 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
However, Charles E.F. Millard, the former agency director who implemented the strategy until the Bush administration departed on Jan. 20, dismissed such concerns. Millard, a former managing director of Lehman Brothers, said flatly that "the new investment policy is not riskier than the old one."
Maybe what he's trying to say here is that it wasn't riskier than the one he used to use as a managing director of Lehman?
(Bangs head on desk.)
Yalt Mon Mar 30 19:45:31 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
<address>Management and union greed decades ago when we bought mostly America built cars. When the economy went global and we started buying import brands, Management and the unions have fought each other to this point. There was never any design for contraction in these insane agreements. Now three retired (soon to be 4-1) is the colaspe. I don't think the line workers or most white collar wages is the big problem.
</address>
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 30 19:54:24 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Where on earth did 'merica go wrong?"
"The Federal Reserve System (also the Federal Reserve; informally The Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. Created in 1913 by the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 19:54:28 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"My initial comment was made in response to someone who said they would never buy an American car, and I merely counterbalance that sentiment with my own, nothing more."
The deal goes both ways. Lots of American cars and parts sold in foreign countries. Years ago Rolls Royce used GM Saginaw steering. Mercedes used GM Frigidair Air Contitioning compressors and Philco (Ford) cruise controls.
I drive Mercedes and GM products. Not a Ford fan comes from the old drag race wars. They make good products and I own their stock as well.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 30 20:01:35 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"We just need some way to get some of the money out of politics"
---------
The way to get money out of politics is to get money out of government. The original government of the U.S. was specifically designed to deal ONLY with matters of law, not redistribution of wealth. The more money that flows through government, the more incentive to run government.
Broward Horne Mon Mar 30 20:24:44 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The original government of the U.S. was specifically designed to deal ONLY with matters of law, not redistribution of wealth." We live in a different world now. Everyone left the farm to get a job in the city. A greater role for government is needed in a non-agrarian society. Particularly in a regulatory role, that is the most subject to abuse by those with money.
Blackhalo Mon Mar 30 20:29:58 2009 CDT #
rickstersherpa says:
Well, reference the PBG Fund losing it all in the market, I guess this is what you can expect when you listen to Kudlow and Don Luskin for your financial advice. Another Atta Boy Brownie moment.
rickstersherpa Mon Mar 30 20:39:25 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
This is a test of the CRbot synchronization system.
briwerk Mon Mar 30 21:27:11 2009 CDT #
briwerk says:
This is a test of the CRbot synchronization system.
briwerk Mon Mar 30 21:56:19 2009 CDT #
Chris G says:
If I may, I would like to state that the Boston Globe article about the PBGC is misleading. Understandably, the article seems to suggest that the new PBGC investment policy meant that PBGC's assets were reallocated around that time. This is simply not true and a quick look at PBGC's 2008 annual report proves it.
From 9/30/07 to 9/30/08, PBGC's assets had an overall return of -6.5% while the equities portion had a return of -23.2%. If PBGC had changed its asset allocation at the time that the new investment policy was announced, it's clear that PBGC's overall return would be much lower.
Page 36 of the 2008 annual report tells the real story. Public equities declined from $16.3 billion to $12.1 billion from 9/30/07 to 9/30/08, while fixed maturity securities declined from $36.5 billion to $34.1 billion over the same period. Also, the total of real estate and private equity is listed at less than $1 billion as of 9/30/08. Does this really sound like PBGC shifted 45% of its assets to stocks?
Finally, Millard's testimony to the House Committee of Education and Labor in October 2008 seemed fairly clear that PBGC had hardly moved in implementing the new policy. In fact, the PBGC was just starting the process of hiring managers for the private equity portion of the portfolio.
I think the confusion is due to the announcement of PBGC's new investment policy vs. the implementation of that policy. We are talking about shifting tens of billions of dollars to different asset classes in a federal government agency. It doesn't happen overnight and, as stated in many places including this blog, it has constantly been subjected to criticism. This has made the process even slower.
I don't know how much progress PBGC has made in implementing the new policy since 9/30/08, but I believe the damage is not nearly as bad as everyone thinks. The real damage will be from taking over severely underfunded pension plans over the next few years.
Chris G Mon Mar 30 22:01:28 2009 CDT #
run75441 says:
If GM goes into bankruptcy, anyone holding stockas in equity will hold nothing. Stock will be subordinate to debt. It looks as if pensioners and healthcare reciepients will take the fall for a GM that has looted both funds over the years by over forecasting returns.
run75441 Mon Mar 30 22:23:01 2009 CDT #
run75441 says:
PGBC will pay about 40% of the GM pension's worth.
Parent Post
run75441 Mon Mar 30 22:24:00 2009 CDT #
Trainwreck says:
CR when you wrote: "Good thing the PBGC invested so wisely recently," I stopped reading praying you were not being sarcastic, squeezing my eyes shut for the next few words and then you wrote, "see: Pension insurer shifted to stocks"
Sigh
Trainwreck Mon Mar 30 23:35:10 2009 CDT #
END