Comments for Late Night Futures
MeFirst says:
TSIA
MeFirst Wed Mar 25 00:08:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"TSIA"
The something says it all?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:14:15 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Everything is obviously priced just right.
Nemo Wed Mar 25 00:08:15 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Everything is obviously priced just right."
Nemo is Kudlow?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:16:19 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
What's the difference between Krugman and Geithner?
$3 trillion!!!!
Broward Horne Wed Mar 25 00:11:41 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
One of them is telling the truth.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:28:28 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Both are Crooks' agents. Kruger has the hallow of the academia and Nobel Prize but he is an accomplished propagandist. Geithner is just a poster boy for mechinations of the Rubin-Summers gang.
The system is rigged in favor of the Crooks. Taxpayer-voter dopes are only allowed to watch and bitch.
Jas
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Jas Wed Mar 25 07:00:46 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4232512930787285341
CRbot Wed Mar 25 00:11:54 2009 CDT #
Elrod says:
Any idea on why the market plunged in the last 15 minutes? Was there some piece of news that came out at 3:45pm?
Elrod Wed Mar 25 00:16:13 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
My guess would be that the speculators did not want to be long overnight. This is a bear rally after all.
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Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:17:53 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Senate Rethinking Tax on Employee Bonuses at AIG, Other Bailout Recipients
So Congress spent a week basically on a dog and pony show...
Basel Too Wed Mar 25 00:18:33 2009 CDT #
Elrod says:
Of course. The whole charade was a joke. Is anybody really that surprised that it went down that way?
Parent Post
Elrod Wed Mar 25 00:55:24 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
Nemo is Kudlow?
Nemo is all things to all people. He is everywhere, first and foremost. He's worse than the Scarlet Pimpernel.
sdtfs Wed Mar 25 00:19:18 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Yeah, but Goldilocks?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:43:26 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
BBC News
Global trade 'will shrink by 9%'
Some "commentators" had assumed "that a 'decoupling' effect would have made developing countries less vulnerable to economic turmoil in developed countries,"
but the WTO experts noted that "this has not turned out to be the case".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7960416.stm
Guest Wed Mar 25 00:27:23 2009 CDT #
ndk says:
I'd like to relay from psychohistorian on naked capitalism's comments a site that is attempting to organize some real demonstrations against the continued bailouts of financial firms.
Nationalize, reorganize, and decentralize.
http://www.anewwayforward.org/
Let's remind the government that the FDIC is to insure small depositors, not Goldman Sachs debt. It's to protect depositors from bank runs, not to leverage speculators with non-recourse loans.
Our fine nation's been sending banks to the glue factory since 1832. Let's destroy these Kelpies so the Clydesdales can flourish.
ndk Wed Mar 25 00:27:34 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
Krugman: "You don't want the centerpiece of your financial strategy to be based on the hope that something that probably isn't true might be true." @ 5:01
This is not making him a lot of friends on the upper reaches of the financial totem pole. He is speaking the truth as best I can tell.
NervousRex Wed Mar 25 00:28:17 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
THAT is a change I can believe in.
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Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:29:48 2009 CDT #
Renee says:
That's the lovely thing about tenure - and a Nobel prize.
Parent Post
Renee Wed Mar 25 02:05:11 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
ndk: Our fine nation's been sending banks to the glue factory since 1832. Let's destroy these Kelpies so the Clydesdales can flourish.
Do you mean the dog breed or the mythological creature?
NervousRex Wed Mar 25 00:29:56 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
wow, Mr Krugman was more reasonable then ever :)"
Comrade De Chaos Wed Mar 25 00:30:28 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
it's not really nationalization of banking system if you don't take over all of banks, so the whole termin is overblown for certain purpose of cause. We just have to kill some dinosaures so life could go on, that's all .
Comrade De Chaos Wed Mar 25 00:34:51 2009 CDT #
ndk says:
Do you mean the dog breed or the mythological creature?
Mythological creature, of course. The dogs only deserve a lot of love, exercise, and some time locked outside occasionally. I'll try to be more explicit if I ever use that metaphor again. =-X
ndk Wed Mar 25 00:36:04 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
"Bailout Halleleuiah: We Praise Maxine Waters For Finally Asking The Goldman Question (Video)"
http://bit.ly/SWbRc
"This is my favorite moment from today's Congressional testimony of Geithner and B-52. It's 5 minutes of apple pie as California Rep. Maxine Waters forces Timmaaay to listen while she recounts the litany of inappropriate Goldman Sachs influence at Treasury and all throughout the financial crisis.
Finally, somebody had the sack to ask Tim about it publicly. She would have been better served to concentrate on Goldman's role in the AIG decision (again, why was Lloyd Blankfein at the AIG rescue meeting last Fall?). But we applaud her nonetheless for her insight into the importance of her assertions and her chutpaz for doing it publicly."
The Daily Bail Wed Mar 25 00:38:31 2009 CDT #
here says:
how are people drawing the distinction between good old-fashioned FDIC bank seizures on the one hand and 'nationalization' on the other?
is there a material difference in these two cases?
here Wed Mar 25 00:56:07 2009 CDT #
Danny says:
My god Bloomberg is so much better than CNBC. I swear everything Melissa Lee says is ridiculous, libertarian garbage. And she looks like an idiot when she tries to espouse it, as well, like she doesn't fully understand the idiotic position she's pushing.
Danny Wed Mar 25 00:56:38 2009 CDT #
Maximus says:
Between the Geithner video CR posted earlier, and Obama's team assuring us the "fundamentals of the economy are sound" Karl Marx is looking more like an oracle every day.
More on my blog....
Maximus
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
Maximus Wed Mar 25 00:57:47 2009 CDT #
unirealist says:
Geithner's plan sounds good to those who are entirely focused on the "toxic assets" held by the major banks. To the rest of us living in the real world, the plan is a cruel hoax.
In the previous post, we saw that MEW was totalling over 800 billion a year. Is The Plan going to replace that lost income? No. To "recover" our previous level of income, the Treasury would have to cut annual checks of $3000. to every single person in the US.
That would replace the fake MEW income.
However, it wouldn't replace the equity and RE losses. That would mean writing one-time checks of $30,000. to every single US resident, including kids.
That would replace the losses to US household wealth.
Then the Treasury would have to write checks of at least $7000. to every individual outside the US, to replace their lost wealth.
Now that's a plan that might restore the glory days.
Except for one small problem...
unirealist Wed Mar 25 01:08:46 2009 CDT #
ndk says:
My god Bloomberg is so much better than CNBC.
I much prefer Bloomberg too, but I always have, really.
It has its own quirks. Sending out a geek like Bernie Lo to do "Asia Confidential" results in a show as saucy as toasted Wonder Bread -- I still seriously can't believe they scheduled that -- and I feel like falling asleep during Mark Crumpton's soothing, passive delivery. :)
ndk Wed Mar 25 01:12:07 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Okay. So now we know something. It is possible for the velocity of money to decline faster than liquidity can be injected. Unfortunately the obverse is not symmetrical. When velocity finally starts to tick up it won't be possible to pull back that liquidity enough to prevent some serious inflation.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 25 01:21:21 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Rob Dawg, once again, as a respected voice on this blog (I mean you), what does "When velocity finally starts to tick up it won't be possible to pull back that liquidity enough to prevent some serious inflation" mean, to you. How do you know this, or what makes you think this? Is this just your opinion, or do you know such a thing for a fact? What makes you think the FED can't withdraw money as fast as it can inject it? Serious question. Please explain.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 01:44:08 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Pulling back the liquidity as fast as it is injected is going to be extremely difficult politically. The time to do it will be when the economy still feels very soft and UE is even higher than it is now, although perhaps has ticked down a few tenths. this is a very real issue.Its deflation now, inflation later. We have to fight the immediate problem though, so I support going down the QE route, but I do it with my eyes open about the possible adverse side effects down the road.
Parent Post
Dirk van Dijk Wed Mar 25 07:05:47 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
I'm getting more than a little tired of Krugman.
No one (but Krugman) ever said Geithner's PPIP bank plan was "the centerpiece of your financial strategy."
It's a plan; nothing more. It's NOT the same plan that Hank Paulson proposed (or the one that he executed).
The only connection is that the plans involved the potential purchase and sale of toxic assets on bank balance sheets. Paulsen was willing to pay 100 cents on the dollar. Geithner is allowing private investors to set the price by bid. Huge difference.
The plan is neither diffuse, nor ill-defined. He must think he got a Nobel Prize for being a labeling critic.
Krugman says it's a bad deal for the taxpayers. Okay, so let's do nothing and let the whole GD system collapse. Who cares any more; the U.S. is no longer the one world superpower so let's go back to 19th century life?
Later on he admits that nationalization will be required. Does he think that will be a GOOD DEAL for taxpayers?
He identifies a problem with the plan being that it is not focused on the most troubled banks. Not true. What well funded bank would sell at 40 cents on the dollar if they didn't have to sell?
He says the plan is not likely to produce enough gain to make the banks viable again (e.g., an asset carred at 60 cents that's "worth" 30 cents on the market might sell for 40 cents under the plan). So what's the problem with the plan? He says the banks might not want to sell for 40 cents and take the hit. That's not a problem with the plan. That's a problem with the banks. The problem is there whether or not there is a plan. They are still holding the toxic waste.
He doesn't want "to hand them extra money." Then WTF do you want to do with the toxic waste? It isn't going away by itself.
He absolutely dismisses the impact of psychology on the market. No, you don't have to believe there isn't a huge loss facing the banking system to believe that something should be done to mitigate the problem. He seems to think everyone in the government lives in some fairyland which just shows an extraordinary arrogance on his part.
"There's a tremendous loss that you can't wish away." Who said Geithner's plan was a wish list or that the problem would go away. Even Geithner admits $1T might not be enough to deal with the problem.
Private investors are given a very good deal; that much is true. Who the hell would ever bid on the toxic crap if they didn't get a good deal. But calling it a 'shiny new toaster' is dismissive and juvenile. I can be dismissive and juvenile, too: Krugman can shove that shiny new toaster up his ass for all the good he brings to the discussion.
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 01:37:22 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
Sportsfan: Private investors are given a very good deal; that much is true. Who the hell would ever bid on the toxic crap if they didn't get a good deal. But calling it a 'shiny new toaster' is dismissive and juvenile. I can be dismissive and juvenile, too: Krugman can shove that shiny new toaster up his ass for all the good he brings to the discussion.
Well, if you want to be purposefully ignorant then there's nothing that can be done about it.
The ugly truth is that stupid companies of all types that are bankrupt should go bust, and not get trillions of dollars of money from taxpayers to keep doing the same idiotic things.
Krugman, for his part, has a huge record of recommendations for this situation and a number of other ones.
Parent Post
NervousRex Wed Mar 25 02:46:19 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
If the system collapses...so does the toxic crap. If it ain't being measured in dollars...it ain't worth measuring. Let the system fail because it ALREADY HAS! NO plan will reconstitute growth and prosperity for a failed Nation in debt up to it's you know what!....We need a NEW system because the one where the crooks run the show is not working anymore. :-$
Parent Post
Money Man Wed Mar 25 05:38:27 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
unirealist, your point would make sense if the 'plan' were designed to bring back the bubble before the bust (restore $800B annual MEW). I understood Obama to say avoiding bubbles and busts was the goal.
Straw men fall easily.
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 01:40:38 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Sportsfan == weeenie.
Jas is so right.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 25 01:48:30 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
I understood Obama to say avoiding bubbles and busts was the goal.
That would mean an "L" shaped permanent recessionary economy. Surely BHO wants one more bubble so that we can achieve a permanently high plateau instead.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 25 01:49:08 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
BO is looking for a permanent 'sustainable' economy, nothing more, nothing less. What's wrong with that?
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 01:54:51 2009 CDT #
entropy says:
problem is he is clueless, as his appointment of Geithner so amply shows.
Parent Post
entropy Wed Mar 25 05:57:16 2009 CDT #
ndk says:
Later on he admits that nationalization will be required. Does he think that will be a GOOD DEAL for taxpayers?
A better one.
Let's set aside looting and the other holes in the plan for a moment and assume it works as intended.
Private entities buy assets for the prospect that they will make a profit. They will not buy assets they view as hopelessly impaired; these will be left with the banks. The banks will no longer have those less-impaired assets to compensate for the really bad stuff.
Our only hope for a more taxpayer-friendly outcome from the PPIF as compared to nationalization is that the private investors are wrong and/or bad at their jobs, but not extremely bad, such that they lose only their own equity, slightly recapitalizing the banks in the process.
I very much appreciate your passion, sportsfan, but I really do think this PPIF is a uniformly bad idea.
ndk Wed Mar 25 01:50:44 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
............China ‘Super Currency’ Call Shows Dollar Concern, G-20 Ambition............
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aywa1wOFMKmw
............China is fully utilizing our dire strait situation......as I posted before , Sino-American War in 2010.....inevitable.......
Jay D. Wed Mar 25 01:51:47 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
Okay, so let's do nothing and let the whole GD system collapse. Who cares any more; the U.S. is no longer the one world superpower so let's go back to 19th century life?
But would it collapse? Is it possible to let some of our financial structure to fail while still retaining the absolute necessities? I know there are arguments to be made for the value the banks have added to our system, but they've been taking a nice cut out of the capital in doing so,...maybe they're not essential. And even if we save the banks, does that mean the rest of our economy is automatically saved? Let the banks go and use the money to prop up everything else.
sdtfs Wed Mar 25 01:51:49 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Jas is so right.
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
Goodnight, folks.
sportsfan Wed Mar 25 01:52:06 2009 CDT #
scone says:
White House Budget Director Peter Orszag said that although CBO's economic projections are more pessimistic than other forecasts, he remained confident that Mr. Obama's budget, if enacted, would produce smaller deficits.
Among the CBO's dire predictions: The deficit under Obama's policies would never go below 4 percent of the size of the economy, figures that economists agree are unsustainable, according to the AP. By the end of the decade, the deficit would exceed 5 percent of gross domestic product, a dangerously high level.
"Deficits in the, let's say, 5 percent of GDP range would lead to rising debt-to-GDP ratios that would ultimately not be sustainable," Orszag told reporters."
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/business/jan-june09/budget_03-20.html
scone Wed Mar 25 01:53:14 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"What's wrong with that?"
Duh, I don't know, that he's lying to your ignorant ass?
christ, what a bunch of morons.
Broward Horne Wed Mar 25 01:58:03 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Broward Horne - I learned to ignore you long ago. Nothing you say means anything.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 02:02:15 2009 CDT #
unirealist says:
Straw men fall easily.
--sportsfan
Huh? Obama is the one who set up the straw man. He's the one talking about "recovery." He's not saying, "hey, folks, we all need to accept a much lower standard of living, now that the credit bubble isn't there anymore."
My point was that fake "income" and "wealth" have been destroyed, and the global economy is screwed because of it. Addressing the toxic asset problem at the banks (whether effective or fair as a solution) is NOT a plan for recovery.
Except, of course, to the bankers who did this.
unirealist Wed Mar 25 02:02:43 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Obama is not stupid. He will lose all support from the Crooks and the American People if he told the truth as you and I know. Obama would end up being the fall guy for the Crooks but he is not allowed to tell the truth. He is given the script to read from.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 25 07:07:51 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
what does "When velocity finally starts to tick up it won't be possible to pull back that liquidity enough to prevent some serious inflation" mean, to you. How do you know this, or what makes you think this? Is this just your opinion, or do you know such a thing for a fact? What makes you think the FED can't withdraw money as fast as it can inject it? Serious question. Please explain.
I don't know it for a fact but I am old enough to remember when the Fed was expected to take away the punchbowl before the party got really going. That won't happen this time.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 25 02:03:25 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
I don't know it for a fact but I am old enough to remember when the Fed was expected to take away the punchbowl before the party got really going. That won't happen this time.
- once again, a statement of certainty. How do you know? The truth is, you can't know. So why make such statements? Fanning the flames of discontent (out of spite?) is not only wrong, but dangerous, and you would be well advised to consider your comments, in light of your admired status. I mean this in all due respect.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 02:17:54 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
And who says the Fed's punchbowl is the most important part of the party?
The U.S. is basically broke, sustaining its current lifestyle on the kindness of such notably charitable nations as China, Japan, and Russia.
Inflation and currency destruction may share certain aspects, but they aren't really the same thing.
But then, you would need to talk about Iceland, which has fallen from the news again, or about what may happen to the UK or Switzerland, who have also fallen from the news again.
I remember a quote around Sept. 11, 2001 from an Israeli in NYC, who said that America is truly oversized, that even in terrorist attacks, the scale of the U.S. is unimaginably huge.
The same style of thinking most likely will apply to what happens to the dollar. It will be truly immense, far outstripping previous collapses, and likely much faster than most dollar holders can imagine.
Then the sun will rise the next day, by the way.
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 05:29:14 2009 CDT #
scone says:
"As noted, CDS trading was created free from US government regulation by President Clinton when he signed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 that mandated that financial derivatives not be under government regulation scrutiny. Enron crony and UBS bank adviser, Texas good ‘ol boy Congressman Phil Gramm helped pass the laws at a time his wife, Wendy, headed the putative regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Corporation (CFTC). That gave the green light to a derivatives market nominally worth more than $62 trillion in 2008. No one knows the exact size because this is a ‘phantom banking market’ completely private and between banks, so-called OTC for Over-The-Counter, ‘just between us.’"
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4492.shtml
.
Wendy and Phil must have made a pretty penny on this one. I doubt Washington will let somebody like Krugman play in their sandbox-- he might not go along with stuff like this.
scone Wed Mar 25 02:10:39 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
...............China economy has bottomed: central bank adviser.....................................
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE52O18P20090325
...............a month ago I posted same thing , now chinese gov. officials confirm this............
Jay D. Wed Mar 25 02:11:02 2009 CDT #
eh says:
The CME futures link doesn't work anymore.
eh Wed Mar 25 02:12:04 2009 CDT #
ndk says:
How do you know this, or what makes you think this? Is this just your opinion, or do you know such a thing for a fact? What makes you think the FED can't withdraw money as fast as it can inject it? Serious question. Please explain.
The Fed removes dollars from circulation by selling debt from its balance sheet back into the market(or at least by reducing repo's). In the event of resurgent inflation, the value of the assets it purchased are likely to decline in value (i.e. T-notes rising from 2.7% where the Fed will buy them tomorrow to, say, 5%). If the Fed sold them, it would show a mark-to-market loss.
That means it could require recapitalization by the Treasury through taxation. This would probably lead to serious popular revolt. It could also just sit around with negative equity indefinitely, which isn't necessarily a huge deal.
The Fed also has the ability to pay interest on deposits now. This is a second way they could remove currency from circulation, although it is quite possible the Fed would further damage its own balance sheet in the process. That's because raising the interest rate on deposits will not affect the generally fixed, low coupon on the long-dated assets it owns.
At one point, the Fed tried to lay off some of its duration risk from these asset purchases by seeking the right to sell, essentially, Fed CD's. That one got shot down, unfortunately.
Anyway, the Fed isn't about to run out of tools for managing inflation. The right questions to be asking are, what are the implications of using those tools, and is there the political will to both use the tools and handle the consequences?
ndk Wed Mar 25 02:19:35 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
ndk - thank you for that explanation. The technicalities exist to manage inflation, as you ably delineate, and I see no reason why the political will would be lacking to use them. Of course, that is my opinion, and I say it is just as valid as Rob Dawg's, even though he may have a much larger following. No disrespect intended.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 02:36:50 2009 CDT #
Bank of Houdini says:
Watch my hands
Bank of Houdini Wed Mar 25 02:27:19 2009 CDT #
Bottom Line says:
Tax payers will be taking the majority of the hit no matter how you cut. Who else would?
Bottom Line Wed Mar 25 02:36:29 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
Just for reference...I can't think of anyone (economist, person -- see the dichotomy? :-) ) who predicted a strong dollar coming out of this, for example last year.
Did anyone see that coming? The reason I ask is that just about everyone thinks the dollar will fall going forward. Seems like a contrarian opportunity, in the abstract at least...
NervousRex Wed Mar 25 02:48:56 2009 CDT #
ille.vir says:
Haven't been reading Mish?
Parent Post
ille.vir Wed Mar 25 05:29:44 2009 CDT #
ndk says:
NervousRex, I've long considered dollars the place to be. You can click those links to see my rationale then, which remains my rationale now.
FWIW, I also view quantitative easing as deflationary and dollar-positive. Seriously. To the extent it dislocates credit markets and disincentivizes private lending -- a great extent, IMHO -- it quite possibly reduces credit creation by the private sector.
ndk Wed Mar 25 02:57:29 2009 CDT #
ille.vir says:
I think zero interest rates have much the same effect. Disincentivization of private credit creation.
Parent Post
ille.vir Wed Mar 25 05:05:09 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
"The truth is, you can't know. So why make such statements? Fanning the flames of discontent (out of spite?) is not only wrong, but dangerous, and you would be well advised to consider your comments, in light of your admired status. I mean this in all due respect."
--------------------------------------------------------
What is this site for, if not to voice opinions? Opinions that are wrong draw criticism. Going further, I'll argue that much of modern economics is based on theory rather than fact.
Your argument that we should be cautious of what we post has merit. But that particular post reeks of malice, and I found the tone distasteful.
Gavshire Hathaway Wed Mar 25 02:58:16 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Gavshire Hathaway - statements made to sound like fact, even though they are only opinion, should be labeled as such, one way or the other. Pronunciations of respected posters (such as Rob Dawg) carry a certain weight, and as such carry a certain responsibility, as well. "Reeks of malice"? Get a grip. "Distasteful"? One hears what they want to hear.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 03:11:44 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
notional billionaire -- You've made your position clear. I disagree, and will not belabor the point further.
Gavshire Hathaway Wed Mar 25 03:17:20 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Gavshire Hathaway - nor I. Goodnight.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 03:20:24 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
Mark To Market Accounting: Jim Chanos Discusses The Geithner Rescue Plan, AIG, And Regulatory Capital Requirements (CNBC Vide from today) with partial transcript
http://dailybail.com/home/bailout-mark-to-market-accounting-jim-chanos-discusses-the-g.html
Surf's up.
The Daily Bail Wed Mar 25 03:20:49 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
. The technicalities exist to manage inflation, as you ably delineate, and I see no reason why the political will would be lacking to use them. Of course, that is my opinion, and I say it is just as valid as Rob Dawg's, even though he may have a much larger following. No disrespect intended.
In this inflation argument I'd side with Rob Dawg.
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet."
sdtfs Wed Mar 25 03:39:00 2009 CDT #
Binko says:
Sportsfan and so many others mindlessly parrot the official line that we MUST provide trillions of dollars of taxpayer money to the banks, insurance companies, and investment firms who buried themselves under a swamp of toxic investments or the entire global financial system will collapse.
How do they know this? Oh yeah, because the guys that are going to get all the money say so. I really do believe that this will go down as the greatest swindle of history. Crony capitalists get rich on a giant ponzi scheme of fake investments and, when the ponzi collapses, they convince their lapdogs in the oval office and congress to give them trillions to "fix" the mess they created. It's an amazing thing to see.
The real solution is blindingly obvious. Put a few hundred wall street insiders in jail, let the bloated carrion banks fail, help new banks rise up to take their place, take your medicine, reform the system, suffer a few years, and then move on without the burden of six or eight trillion dollars of additional federal debt.
But with Wall Street insiders still calling ALL the shots this can never happen.
Binko Wed Mar 25 04:18:04 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
"Put a few hundred wall street insiders in jail.."
That isn't enough by a long mile. Tens of thousands need to hanged, or nailed to the cross, at the very minimum. Otherwise, millions of ordinary Americans would have to die in civil unrests.
Blood will conquer money!
Jas
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Jas Wed Mar 25 07:23:20 2009 CDT #
Daniel Nicolas says:
http://wakingideas.com/clips/clooney.png
Krugman looks like Clooney!
Daniel Nicolas Wed Mar 25 04:27:41 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
nemo is, he just is dammit, like another who would struggle against tyranny, injustice and criminals
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTfdiHxYivA
volker the viking Wed Mar 25 04:59:26 2009 CDT #
blah says:
guaranteeing the toxic assets will slow down deflating housing prices... but nature will take its course... and your home ain't done deflating folks.
blah Wed Mar 25 05:13:48 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
"guaranteeing the toxic assets will slow down deflating housing prices..."
NO way, Jose. It will only help the banking and finance Crooks. Housing prices are to be determined by the supply and demand for actual housing and not the speculative demand that was fostered by Crooks as long as they could.
The game of manipulating the economy via debt and housing is over.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 25 07:15:07 2009 CDT #
Jamie says:
If the banks are allowed to fail then you can write off some of the debt and make the taxpayer take the responsibility of what you don't want to write off.
At least then you make a choice per asset. As it stands the banks themselves get to choose and they are hardly impartial.
Jamie Wed Mar 25 06:09:10 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Anonymous says:
Today, 6:29:14 AM
But then, you would need to talk about Iceland, which has fallen from the news again, or about what may happen to the UK or Switzerland, who have also fallen from the news again.
We can hardly shut up about them here. They are not going to hand out medals for predicting how this one comes out -- yet oddly, although the facts are obvious, their expression seems totally incompatible with the mass-entertainment media complex.
The same style of thinking most likely will apply to what happens to the dollar. It will be truly immense, far outstripping previous collapses, and likely much faster than most dollar holders can imagine.
So true. Once the treasuries / dollar complex starts to slide, it won't take long to complete its movement to the new equilibrium point of the system. Like a morning of trade? You could have it wrapped up by 11am if it started around 5am EST in Europe. That's a good timeframe for it too, it's at a nadir of institutional responsiveness in America.
Then the sun will rise the next day, by the way.
Not for everyone! Many will go up to heaven with their fortunes, and probably many others in pointless fires and infantry skirmishes in the streets. Man is a social species. Our environment is the other monkeys around us.
The disaster will be real, you will just need a coping strategy for when sobriety sets in a couple days or weeks down the line and everyone left has to contemplate the mess they made.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Mar 25 06:12:41 2009 CDT #
Ranger Turtle says:
What's up with Krugman? Someone not invite him to the party? Nobel ego boost syndrome?
The Treasury's plan on handling bad assets using private/public funding essentially stretches out the little funds they have left from the TARP.
They would't get any signifcant money from asking the people/congress for more at this time of rage against Wall Street.
As for taking down the insolvent banks, thats what the FDIC is for, and that's why the FDIC is asking for more $ to do just that.
Ranger Turtle Wed Mar 25 06:20:58 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Nobel Prize in E-CON-omics was invented to give Crooks' agents more propaganda mojo. Breeding of dopes is a systematic process and Nobel Prize in economics is part of it. America perfected the technique of breeding dopes. And it shows.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 25 06:54:17 2009 CDT #
Brutus says:
So let's just get to the point where we raise the top tax rate to 40% and ban naked shorts and get this over with already!
Brutus Wed Mar 25 06:33:40 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
No way. This will not be over until tens of thousands of people who corroborated and colluded to cause this crisis, beginning with Greenspan and Bernanke, are hanged, or nailed to the cross live, in full public view with thousands of cameras broadcasting worldwide. Lest we forget even kings and queens were beheaded.
Crooks need to be gotten rid of in the worst way possible. Then I will turn positive on America's future. Obama is Crooks’ agent; otherwise, he would have had no chance to be the President. Helping the economy by first helping the bankers and financiers?
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 25 06:51:00 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Guest Post: HOOPPLA! The Beauty of Bonds?
CRbot Wed Mar 25 06:41:05 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Seriously, people, what sort of person thinks that the govt (USG + Fed) can fix the economy damaged by the worst crooks in history, especially, when the same group of people (Bernanke & Co at the Fed + Wall Street crooks at the Exec branch) is in-charge of the govt. policy?
I want to investigate any silver lining in the dark clouds that are so obvious.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 25 06:41:28 2009 CDT #
mal says:
I know the Baltic Dry is so 2008, but has anyone noticed that its months-long rally is now hitting a brick wall again?
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
mal Wed Mar 25 06:49:35 2009 CDT #
S says:
Lewis says that he wants to begin repaying the $45B next month, following the completion of the stress test, and to complete the repayment of the funds once the financial system has stabilized, noting that the repayment could occur as early as 4Q09. Lewis also defends BAC's purchases of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, calling them strategically sound, and believes "we're starting to see the bottom" of the current economic crisis. Note that in reporting on TARP repayment, NYT Dealbook cited analysts feel confident that JPM and GS can pay back its TARP loan now, while WFC, C and BAC are specifically cited as possibly not being strong enough to do so.
Lewis is totally delusional. this guy should be arrested.
S Wed Mar 25 07:04:16 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Pardon the long quote:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQGG.mWeZ4eU&refer=home
Gilts Slump as Demand at U.K. 40-Year Bond Auction Falls Short
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Kim-Mai Cutler
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. government bonds slumped, extending three days of losses, after an auction of 40-year gilts failed to meet the amount of debt the Treasury offered.
Investors bid for 1.63 billion pounds ($2.4 billion) of notes, lower than the 1.75 billion pounds of 4.25 percent notes the Treasury had slated to sell, the U.K. Debt Management Office said today.
“Basically it’s the first failed auction,” said John Wraith, head of sterling interest-rate strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London. “They didn’t receive enough to cover it all so the market’s obviously sold off extremely heavily.”
U.K. bonds fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year gilt 10 basis points higher to 3.43 percent by 11:02 a.m. in London. The 4.5 percent security due March 2019 slipped 0.82, or 8.2 pounds per 1,000-pound face amount, to 109.04.
The yield on the two-year note rose three basis points to 1.29 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Mar 25 07:05:58 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
The End Game Approaches
CRbot Wed Mar 25 07:15:16 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
It’s not the cost of money, stupid
CRbot Wed Mar 25 07:32:46 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
Note that in reporting on TARP repayment, NYT Dealbook cited analysts feel confident that JPM and GS can pay back its TARP loan now,
But does Treasury actually want to receive the money now? Maybe to a small degree for pr, but otherwise I think it's probably the last thing they want.
Sexy Derivative Wed Mar 25 07:39:54 2009 CDT #
Alo says:
Durables up - on what I wonder..
Alo Wed Mar 25 07:40:14 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Durable goods orders are up unexpectedly and up for the first time in a year:
MoM change Consensus -2.0%, Actual 3.4%
However, one should look at the absolute levels of durable goods orders to appreciate the magnitude of the demand decline. It is like cheering for a 10% jump in the stock markets after it fell by more than 50%.
MrM Wed Mar 25 07:42:23 2009 CDT #
Alo says:
Amateur question - auto parts stores are doing fine because people are choosing to maintain/fix old cars rather than buy new.
Is this why aircraft parts are doing so well?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afkAuaSAlIt8&refer=home
Alo Wed Mar 25 07:44:29 2009 CDT #
Joe says:
The Obama Economic Plan is simple: Borrow from America’s future prosperity and bailout multi-billionaire bond and equity holders today.
The Correct Plan for America is also simple: Bond and equity owners can hold or sell their assets at the market price without government involvement. What a draconian idea; support free market concepts, promote fairness, prevent moral hazard, and preserve American prosperity based on merit.
:)
Joe Wed Mar 25 07:45:42 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Durable Goods Orders Rise in February
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/durable-goods-orders-rise-in-february.html ( 1 comments )
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CRbot Wed Mar 25 07:52:20 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Mr.Denningers post was interesting. He, in his own way, is a Jas like being. Just smarter and right more often.
I was reading the thread about signal to noise blah blah. They popup every once n awhile.
What I think makes this blog unique is that it is like a stew that is made by all of us. We have people who bring the meat. Others are various veggies. Some are potatos or spices. Sometimes people bring squirrels or cat turds. Those are the threads you want to order out from Jesses cafe.
nova Wed Mar 25 08:01:37 2009 CDT #
END