Comments for Architecture Billings Index Near Record Low
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4237690671579537691
CRbot Wed Mar 18 08:26:22 2009 CDT #
Cornholio says:
American International Group(AIG.N) funneled over $90 billion of taxpayer bailout funds to various U.S. and European banks, but the biggest beneficiary was politically connected Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N).
Suspicions of potential conflicts of interest and favoritism have been fueled by $12.9 billion AIG paid to Goldman Sachs -- where then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had previously worked as chief executive -- in the months after the insurer was rescued by the government last September.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1712706420090317
That's what I'm talking about. Get those bastards!
Cornholio Wed Mar 18 08:28:06 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Obama and his administration have lost all credibility. Based upon all the things I see happening, I now believe he is going to make Bush look good.
Parent Post
Guest Wed Mar 18 08:47:31 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
first ?
popeye Wed Mar 18 08:28:17 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
AIG needs a new CEO. I'm willing to step in and take the roll if you guys, and gals, are willing to support me in the endeavor. What do you all say?
Morocco Bama Wed Mar 18 08:29:05 2009 CDT #
Comrade Tiberius says:
Some of that AIG bonus money must be making its way back into the general economy. That's sure to help.
Comrade Tiberius Wed Mar 18 08:29:52 2009 CDT #
Margin Call of Cthulhu says:
Yesterday, an uptick like that in housing starts was billed as a "rebound." What's with the cynicism? ;)
That $165 million in AIG bonuses is some of the best bailout money ever spent, by the way. It is a small price to pay for having virtually ensured there will not be a Son of TARP. Hell, if it could have saved us 800 billion, I would have said hand out those bonuses sooner.
Parent Post
Margin Call of Cthulhu Wed Mar 18 08:35:49 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
I assure you I will take names and kick asses. I will claw back those bonuses, and give a full accounting of AIG's financial standing. What do you say?
Morocco Bama Wed Mar 18 08:33:36 2009 CDT #
cold realities of competition says:
Great quote from AIG's CEO justifying the bonuses. Love it so much, it's my new handle!
Still, if they were looking for serious hard-case to run the company, maybe instead of Edward Liddy they should have hired G. Gordon Liddy. Now *that* would have made for a good Congressional hearing today...
cold realities of competition Wed Mar 18 08:35:30 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
I pity poor Liddy for the ass-reaming he's going to get from the House hearing today. He's a hapless fool, and he didn't write the contracts, but he's drunk on the NY lawyers koolaid and therefore will be spat upon.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 08:36:08 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
First by virtue actually talking about Arch billings. I is important to understand the index is a first derivative number. A reading of 40 this month would still represent a significant contraction in activity.
Rob Dawg Wed Mar 18 08:37:18 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
Obama hasn't yet internalized that further bailouts, instead of bankruptcies (receiverships), are DEAD. AIG pissed on the bailout sofa.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 08:38:46 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
AIG pissed on the bailout sofa.
Please, let it be so. I am less concerned about paltry bonuses measured in millions when compared to zombie bank bailouts measured in trillions.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 09:55:27 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
Hey, idea! A new ETF for all the companies that got bailouts. Trade Symbol: DEAD
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 08:40:35 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Links 3/17/09
CRbot Wed Mar 18 08:42:03 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Guys, this is AIA, not AIG. Sheesh!
Dear host, while the February billings reading is dreadful, it is slightly less dreadful than January's. Housing starts, as you noted yesterday, are no longer falling, though still dreadful. Macro Advisors estimates that GDP rose 0.2% in January, though because of the sharp drop in December, the average for Q1 is likely to be 5.1% below the average for Q4. I don't think we are ready to bounce, but the trajectory of a good many economic indicators seems to be less dramatic now. That would be what one would expect if some sort of equilibrium were being approached. Maybe getting into better line with credit conditions.
Guest Wed Mar 18 08:42:49 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
It's not the bonuses. Its the CDS. That's the tragedy.
popeye Wed Mar 18 08:43:12 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
"Chief Economist Kermit"
I like that. Not sure it's appropriate, but it's a hopeful name.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Mar 18 08:43:30 2009 CDT #
JimPortlandOR says:
haloscan eats regularly now. we must sacrifice some virgins to keep it sated.
JimPortlandOR Wed Mar 18 08:45:04 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Architect friend in Jacksonville riffed Friday. At least his son has finished college.
burnside Wed Mar 18 08:46:06 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Not all that important, but it would be more understandable if you called it RIF'ed. Riffed or riffing is something one might expect from a jazz quartet. At first I got the image of your friend bobbing his head and snapping his fingers saying "Ya' man, like my son finished school; cool huh?" ;-)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 08:57:22 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Barron's has a review of various brokers for any of you criminal traders out there that are interested:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123698734062425763.html
ac Wed Mar 18 08:50:13 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
by the evening news, the MSM will have completed the AIG bailout timeline, which will make Geithner look like the world's biggest moron.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 08:50:53 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Does the triple witching hour occur this Friday, and are there any predictions?
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 08:53:17 2009 CDT #
freddy fuddpucker says:
MUSTARD SEED...it's up two-tenths of a percent. The bottom is in.
I'm Larry Kudlow and I approve of this message.
freddy fuddpucker Wed Mar 18 08:55:25 2009 CDT #
under the overpass says:
It's starting to go up.
under the overpass Wed Mar 18 09:00:37 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
“haloscan eats regularly now. we must sacrifice some virgins to keep it sated.
Not always. Like the prodigal son, sometimes the posts return! There are times when I post, can't see the post, and then 2-3 hours later it appears in the place where it should have been originally.
some days are worse than others.
there have been times where i've posted and can't see it here... but then I can see it on GoogleReader. I think it's one of those riddles...
he who can solve the riddle of posts is the Quizat Saderac and can lead us out of this depression!
Yearning to Learn Wed Mar 18 09:00:45 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
As of yesterday, my architect daughter still had a job.
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 09:01:32 2009 CDT #
ac says:
At least his son has finished college.
One thing I learned in a past life - you get that much angrier about being unemployed when you have a college degree.
It sucks going to an interview and talking to one of the competing candidates who also is unemployed and has a PhD from MIT.
ac Wed Mar 18 09:02:04 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
MIT Ph.D.'s are never unemployed. :)
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Wed Mar 18 11:43:14 2009 CDT #
cold realities of competition says:
"I now believe he is going to make Bush look good."
Put it in perspective: Obama's reputation is rightfully taking a hit due to Geithner's mistakes. But Bush had Snow, Rumsfeld, Gonzales...
I don't think one bad -- okay, disastrous -- Cabinet pick is going to sink Obama's entire presidency to Bush levels of incompetence.
cold realities of competition Wed Mar 18 09:06:04 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
"I don't think one bad -- okay, disastrous -- Cabinet pick is going to sink Obama's entire presidency to Bush levels of incompetence."
ONE? Are you paying attention? Obama is one disaster after another, whether it is nominations/appointments, or just the decisions that are being made. On don't start with that "well, it's not Obama, it's his administration" BS. HE IS THE ADMINISTRATION.
And his latest decision? Expire the program/order allowing pilots to carry guns in the cockpit. What's with that? Is he a total moron? Let me answer the question, YES!
Parent Post
Guest Wed Mar 18 10:04:15 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
Yes, you have a point - all those gunfights where the pilots saved the day over the last few years make this one a no-brainer. :p
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Wed Mar 18 11:44:53 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
Obama and his administration have lost all credibility. Based upon all the things I see happening, I now believe he is going to make Bush look good.
Unfortunately I agree. Everybody who knew Bush knew he was an incompetent idiot opportunist who reached his position in life due to nepotism. we all saw it in Texas. So we all could say 'well what did we expect'
but many had hopes for out newest President, who has clawed his way to the top.
this debacle shows that there is no hope. there is no change. we cannot elect people to help us, as they are either all complicit or impotent. it is the ultimate betrayal.
losing hope is one of the worst things in life.
Yearning to Learn Wed Mar 18 09:09:01 2009 CDT #
desert rat says:
Plenty of empty buildings here.
desert rat Wed Mar 18 09:10:26 2009 CDT #
Punditry says:
Steel suffering from armageddon
Punditry Wed Mar 18 09:11:21 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
This confirms that the housing starts would bottom in 2009.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 18 09:11:55 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
It's worth noting from graphs in earlier posts that CRE seems to descend into the recovery, and that residential construction is the thing that "seems" to pull us out of recession. Thus, it's not counter intuitive think that architectural billings and CRE could continue declining throughout '09 and we could still have a second half recovery. It's just not very likely;-)
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 09:11:57 2009 CDT #
desert rat says:
"Barron's has a review of various brokers for any of you criminal traders out there"
We are not crooks!
desert rat Wed Mar 18 09:13:24 2009 CDT #
ac says:
"Obama and his administration have lost all credibility. Based upon all the things I see happening, I now believe he is going to make Bush look good."
Unfortunately I agree. Everybody who knew Bush knew he was an incompetent idiot opportunist who reached his position in life due to nepotism. we all saw it in Texas. So we all could say 'well what did we expect'
but many had hopes for out newest President, who has clawed his way to the top.
I think Obama and his admin have made a critical strategic mistake: They took on responsibility for "fixing the economy" at the onset of an epic credit crisis even though there's not a lot of evidence they can successfully do that. Again, I think FDR probably would have been just as despised as Hoover if he were elected in 1928 rather than 1932.
The political right seems to understand this and is now positioning themselves to exploit it (which given their recent history probably doesn't do us any good).
It's unfortunate that both ends of the political spectrum seem focused on promoting power monopolies and quick economic fixes for political gain.
I guess that's the essential nature of politics.
ac Wed Mar 18 09:14:57 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
Why do you think that flooding the market with credit won't bounce the economy over to the next bubble? As long as the bubble forms and lasts through 2012, Obama will be home free.
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Wed Mar 18 11:47:02 2009 CDT #
AARON says:
Burnside wrote:
"Architect friend in Jacksonville riffed Friday. At least his son has finished college"
Sorry - Guess I'm out of it: What does "RIFFED" mean?
AARON Wed Mar 18 09:16:22 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Reduction in Force. Layed-Off. Kicked in the Gut.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 09:47:02 2009 CDT #
burh says:
Pump monkeys' job's getting harder. M2M "modofication", return of uptick rule and more happy talk from Fed clowns seem to be priced in now. Market's definitely overbought after the latest squeeze. Not sure if today's FOMC will be a trigger for the next leg down, but upcoming quarterly earnings will certainly bring long-only crowd back to reality.
burh Wed Mar 18 09:16:55 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
It's unfortunate that both ends of the political spectrum seem focused on promoting power monopolies and quick economic fixes for political gain.
Only one end of the spectrum has primary responsibility for developing some sort of economic 'fix.' The other end need only not make it worse than it already is.
sportsfan Wed Mar 18 09:20:40 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Partisan dopes in America are the easiest to identify. Both parties are totally controlled by crooks. Of the four biggest economic evildoers -- Greenspan, Rubin, Summers and Bernanke -- two are Republicons and two are Democraps. Crooks know the value of divide and rule.
DOPES ARE DIVIDED AND CROOKS ARE UNITED!
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 18 09:36:15 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
james kwak @ baseline scenario, channeling his inner joe shmoe:
[T]he Obama administration has been taking a difficult political position - propping up financial institutions in their current form and insisting everything will be OK - when it would have been easier to play the populist card. This was by no means an inescapable choice; according to news reports in February, David Axelrod and Rahm Emmanuel were in favor of being tougher on the banks. Perhaps the AIG bonus scandal will force the administration’s hand toward the decisive action that we need.
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 09:21:48 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
From previous thread…
charlie replies:Today, 6:26:50 AM: “One thing I've learned is America doesn't have a monopoly on dopes.”
Where did I claim that America has monopoly on dopes? My comments are about today’s Americans and comparing them with their past behavior.
“It's just that in America, unlike many other places, dopes have better opportunities to do stupid things on a larger scale.”
And sometimes people bite more than they can chew. That is what has finally happened to American dopes. They don’t know that when you don’t understand limits of stupidity there are severe consequences.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 18 09:24:14 2009 CDT #
Here we go says:
And sometimes people bite more than they can chew. That is what has finally happened to American dopes. They don’t know that when you don’t understand limits of stupidity there are severe consequences.
Jas
--------------------------------------
Tut tut my good man, if they are "dopes" how can they understand anything? :-P
Parent Post
Here we go Wed Mar 18 19:55:34 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
Perhaps the AIG bonus scandal will force the administration’s hand toward the decisive action that we need.
One can always hope.
sportsfan Wed Mar 18 09:24:28 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Perhaps the AIG bonus scandal will force the administration’s hand toward the decisive action that we need.
One can always hope."
Open your eyes and look at what "Hope" has accomplished so far.
Parent Post
Guest Wed Mar 18 10:08:56 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
That's pretty good shmoe, Basel.
popeye Wed Mar 18 09:26:09 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
I'm not joking.
Morocco Bama Wed Mar 18 09:28:42 2009 CDT #
wally says:
This index - Architectural billings - is one that I woould expect to see get juiced up a bit by stimulus spending fairly soon. I don't there is much effect there yet, but I know there is some. If you want to have a 'shovel ready' project, you need architectural and engineering drawings to be complete.
wally Wed Mar 18 09:31:47 2009 CDT #
yagwerk says:
@sportsfan:
One can always hope.
I'm not sure that word means what I think you think it means. I would recommend the word "pray", but the outcome will probably still be the same. Just ask the good ol' folks over in Zimbabwe...
yagwerk Wed Mar 18 09:32:47 2009 CDT #
MLM says:
Euro and yen are all Kermitty, but gold is taking a savage thrashing from Elmo. What does it all mean?
MLM Wed Mar 18 09:33:29 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
test
Michael Wed Mar 18 09:34:38 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Time for Wall Street Insurance?
CRbot Wed Mar 18 09:35:23 2009 CDT #
sportsfan says:
yagwerk, praying is fine for monotheists. I don't partake.
Meanwhile, Frank is pointing out that the contract states the bonus pool will only be reduced, not eliminated, by company wide losses. That's a key to me in setting aside the contracts given the size of the losses.
sportsfan Wed Mar 18 09:36:02 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
citi citi citi....so'darn exciting
Comrade Rally Monkey Wed Mar 18 09:36:43 2009 CDT #
fried says:
"Perhaps the AIG bonus scandal will force the administration’s hand toward the decisive action that we need."
I think Rich called it last night. Any hope of getting the next bailout package thru Congress is almost certainly dead.
fried Wed Mar 18 09:37:10 2009 CDT #
yagwerk says:
Euro and yen are all Kermitty, but gold is taking a savage thrashing from Elmo. What does it all mean?
----
I'd say it means that TPTB are trying their best from keeping the money from fleeing the sinking ship. It is funny that they are trying to herd the money into treasuries and other such assets and trying their best to keep it fenced off from other places. Okay, it isn't "funny" per se, but watching the market trying to s
yagwerk Wed Mar 18 09:37:14 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
It would have been better if AIG never existed.
Michael Wed Mar 18 09:39:14 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
I think Rich called it last night. Any hope of getting the next bailout package thru Congress is almost certainly dead.
Hopefully. But, with the Armageddon talk that will arise, you never know. Bernanke definitely thinks letting Lehman fail was a huge mistake. As for me, I think not letting Bear fail was a huge mistake.
iceman Wed Mar 18 09:39:48 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
dito
Can we please stop all the censoring on this blog? It's no fun anymore and it's a recipe for self destruction.
Michael Wed Mar 18 09:40:23 2009 CDT #
yagwerk says:
(Seriously OT)
praying is fine for monotheists.
----
Praying is also for deists, and either way the result of your hope and the "monotheist's" prayer will be the same. A someone posted earlier, the government can stay in power longer than you can stay solvent. It is the proverbial "Hope in one hand and defecate in the other and see which one fills up first." sort of thing.
yagwerk Wed Mar 18 09:41:43 2009 CDT #
George Costanza says:
Looks like I will have to pretend to be something else.
George Costanza Wed Mar 18 09:41:44 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
LM says:
Euro and yen are all Kermitty, but gold is taking a savage thrashing from Elmo. What does it all mean?
Use the force Skywalker; the force will cure your chlorophobia.
popeye Wed Mar 18 09:43:04 2009 CDT #
George Costanza says:
Looks like I will have to pretend to be something else.
George Costanza Wed Mar 18 09:43:19 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
Without architects all buildings would look Gehry.
NervousRex Wed Mar 18 09:44:20 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Aaron, it's 'reduction in force'. We'll probably dust off that old chestnut 'right-sized' as well.
Cinco, glad to see you amus'd.
burnside Wed Mar 18 09:44:51 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Amused, confused....po-tae-to/po-tah-to
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 09:49:57 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
is there censoring Michael? I don't think so. Haloscan/jskit just eats random things.
I've written posts that could't possibly be censored, and they just don't show up.
that's one reason why you see all the "test" posts.
overall, about 20% of my posts never show. I'm not even sure this one will.
Yearning to Learn Wed Mar 18 09:46:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Does Jas have a job?
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 09:46:58 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Interesting piece by HP:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a2b1243c-1326-11de-a170-0000779fd2ac.html
I didn't read a "Blueprint for a Modern Financial Regulatory Framework", so I can't comment on that, but he actually sounds like a reasonable person, not the villain as he is described here ;-)
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 09:47:32 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
......Is Your Mutual Fund Charging Too Much? .....of course , you can sue fund advisors................
http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Mutual-Funds/Is-Your-Mutual-Fund-Charging-Too-Much/?hpadref=1
Jay D. Wed Mar 18 09:48:31 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
To elaborate, Reduction in Force indicates that the job loss is permanent, the employee will not be rehired, and no one will be brought in to replace the employee. The job is going away completely.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Mar 18 09:50:01 2009 CDT #
Mad Mullah says:
Crocs in doubt? Say it ain't so. You mean 25 cent plastic / rubberized slippers that can be easily knocked off by China isn't going to be a long term company. Somebody get a feather, and knock me over.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_11940292
Mad Mullah Wed Mar 18 09:50:39 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Stupid Congress. Showing how impotent it is. It gets into hysteria about the AIG bonuses and then does next to nothing about it. Of course Congress has the power to do almost anything it wishes. So not doing anything about the bonuses simply exposes its hypocrisy and its lack of will. When Wall Street meets Congress, guess who backs down? Need one ask. WALL STREET RULES and always will.
Hal Wed Mar 18 09:50:50 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Liddy: I'm totally angry too, really. Very very angry. While I'm counting my money. Extremely Angry in fact.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/18/news/companies/aig_hearing/?postversion=2009031809
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Mar 18 09:51:19 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
Cinco, I don't doubt he's reasonable in some contexts. An indication he never saw this approaching is that he took the job - reports at the time of his appointment were that he anticipated a walk in the park.
Shame it wasn't true. Wrong man at the wrong time.
burnside Wed Mar 18 09:53:04 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
I wonder how lung until the populace is outraged that AIG is nothing more than another version of TARP. just a conduit to be used to shovel cash to the idiot bankers?
Yearning to Learn Wed Mar 18 09:54:19 2009 CDT #
brucentennessee says:
Alooa announced yesterday that they are ceasing aluminum smelting here in East Tennessee, due to lack of demand...there is actually a suburb of Knoxville named Alcoa where they have a large plant...more layoffs and part of their press release states there is no construction for the use of aluminum products...
brucentennessee Wed Mar 18 09:54:30 2009 CDT #
Willy Wonka says:
Push the button Charlie.
Willy Wonka Wed Mar 18 09:55:56 2009 CDT #
desert rat says:
financials up about 3 cents, and green.
Amazing what can be done with penny stocks.
BTW, financials, once the largest sector are
now about 5th out of 9.
desert rat Wed Mar 18 09:56:26 2009 CDT #
Losty says:
Now this one hurts, Knew it was coming, but..
Station Casinos will file for BK protection by 4/15: CNBC..
Great buffetts..
Losty Wed Mar 18 09:56:30 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
We should have let LTCM fail.
Guest Wed Mar 18 09:57:08 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
That's got to be a sign that Station is about to be purchased. They had at least one unsolicited offer that I'm aware of. The Fertita brothers are far more interested in their MMA promotions (UFC, WEC) than casinos now.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Mar 18 09:58:23 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
LawyerLiz, he has a private residential practice, so it's not hopeless. Given the family smarts and good humor, I'm sure your daughter will be fine. . .
burnside Wed Mar 18 10:00:22 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
I doubt the general public will recognize AIG for what it is.
popeye Wed Mar 18 10:00:42 2009 CDT #
Cornholio says:
A $1.3 billion package of securities backed by Nissan Motor Co. auto loans became the first small piece of what Federal Reserve officials say may grow into a $1 trillion effort to unfreeze business and consumer lending.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aiIO6bJQxYd0
WTF!
Cornholio Wed Mar 18 10:01:02 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
The best evidence of America’s dopes, crooks and bad economists are the two bubbles, the largest of their kind in history, over the past dozen years. Both were driven by obvious criminality on the part of the economic and political ruling elite, obvious dopiness of the “educated” population, and very bad economic forecasts and policy prescriptions by the vast majority of economists.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 18 10:01:41 2009 CDT #
cd says:
c is flying...
cd Wed Mar 18 10:03:09 2009 CDT #
black dog says:
dana milbank writes a column for the washington post. Yesterday he and other journalists had breakfast with rick wagoner.
The money quote was on GM suppliers: "Getting more precarious...pretty, pretty drastic."
black dog Wed Mar 18 10:06:02 2009 CDT #
gabyjan says:
testing
gabyjan Wed Mar 18 10:07:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
This is the actual Dodd Amendment that permitted bonuses to be paid to AIG. It was added to the the Stimulus Bill as an amendment:
" (IV) For any financial institution that received financial assistance provided under the TARP equal to $500,000,000 or more, the prohibition shall apply to the senior executive officers and at least the 20 next most highly-compensated employees, or such higher number as the Secretary may determine is in the public interest with respect to any TARP recipient.
`(iii) The prohibition required under clause (i) shall not be construed to prohibit any bonus payment required to be paid pursuant to a written employment contract executed on or before February 11, 2009, as such valid employment contracts are determined by the Secretary or the designee of the Secretary."
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c111:8:./temp/~c111k6VOfS:e1272661:
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 10:08:35 2009 CDT #
Apprentice says:
nice work!
So, someone with influence knew about the bonus contracts and wrote that clause into the bailout.
Parent Post
Apprentice Wed Mar 18 10:30:35 2009 CDT #
bobn_ says:
Interesting piece by HP: ...but he actually sounds like a reasonable person, not the villain as he is described here ;-)
After all the AIG Bailout that got funnelled to Goldman Sucks, you're *defending* Paulson based on something he *wrote*? Puh-leese!!!!
bobn_ Wed Mar 18 10:09:00 2009 CDT #
ac says:
I didn't read a "Blueprint for a Modern Financial Regulatory Framework", so I can't comment on that, but he actually sounds like a reasonable person, not the villain as he is described here.
The most important skill of an expert criminal is the ability to come across as a reasonable honest person.
Actions, not words, are what define what a person really is.
ac Wed Mar 18 10:10:32 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Yup. Dopes are characterized by what dopes do, crooks are what crooks do, and bad economists are what bad economists do.
Every dope denies that he is a dope; every crook denies that he is a crook; and every bad economist denies that he is a bad economist.
There is no corrective mechanism in place in America anymore. Americans attack and harass their critics. Only prolonged misery will change the rotten behavior that exists.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 18 10:18:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
Entities that are too big to fail are quickly being fused together under and through the US Gov. into one even more monstrously huge steaming too big to fail pile...
what a great idea...
Comrade Janosik Wed Mar 18 10:12:01 2009 CDT #
JS-Kit says:
OM NOM NOM NOM
JS-Kit Wed Mar 18 10:13:39 2009 CDT #
ac says:
We should have let LTCM fail.
The beginning of the end was in 1987 when we decided we had to stop another crash like that from happening.
That crash was the absolute best thing that could have happened at the time - it stopped a speculative melt-up in an overpriced market and returned it to reality without having spillover effects on the economy.
The best possible outcome of a free market.
And people like Reagan were aghast and decided that we couldn't have anything like that happen again.
The rest, as they say, is history.
ac Wed Mar 18 10:15:56 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmo Fudd says:
http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20081007102452.pdf
Check out the letter from St. Denis re: AIGFP
Cassano is a real piece of work!
Comrade Elmo Fudd Wed Mar 18 10:15:58 2009 CDT #
alybaba says:
Madoff Accountant Friehling Arrested in Ponzi Scheme
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3UZ9aMKVsAc&refer=home
Finally someone other than Madoff, though I'd prefer to see where they are getting with his brothers and other employees
alybaba Wed Mar 18 10:16:53 2009 CDT #
cd says:
stupid ?'s from peak stupidity in congress....
cd Wed Mar 18 10:20:28 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
The theater of the hearings is specifically for born-and-bred American dopes. Crooks' agents want the dopes to know that they are at work!
ONLY MORONS BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA IS A GOOD POLITICAL SYSTEM. It has changed dramatically since Tocqueville visited 175 years ago and for the worse. Much worse due to fall in morality of conduct across the board. Allowing evildoers like Greenspan and Bernanke to come to power has its consequences. The damage is irreversible.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 18 10:32:02 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Only idiots listen to J-ASS
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 10:44:37 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Only idiots listen to J-ASS"
Who's J-ass?
;-)
Parent Post
RockyR Wed Mar 18 11:01:07 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Turn on threading and you'll know- ;)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 11:03:44 2009 CDT #
bfatz says:
Put me in the idiot category Jas is a good poster.
Parent Post
bfatz Wed Mar 18 11:16:22 2009 CDT #
FED says:
Getting some of these people in jail will help restore some confidence in the system. The SEC should look at themselves too
FED Wed Mar 18 10:21:11 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Getting some of these people in jail will help restore some confidence in the system."
I totally agree that confidence will not be restored until the architects of the derivatives debacle are doing perp walks. Maddoff does not count.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Wed Mar 18 10:23:00 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
RICO
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 10:41:08 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
SEC was created to restore public's confidence and NOT to check the crooks!
SEC -- to Secure Entitlements for the Crooks!!
BBAD don't understand the real purposes behind the SEC and the Fed.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Wed Mar 18 10:34:30 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
SEC -- to Secure Entitlements for the Crooks!!
I see what you did there.
Parent Post
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 11:12:38 2009 CDT #
MinniRenter says:
Does anyone know of an index for rents other than the CPI components? National would be great, but I would be interested in local indices as well.
MinniRenter Wed Mar 18 10:24:54 2009 CDT #
burh says:
Potential H&S on gold's daily chart...
burh Wed Mar 18 10:24:57 2009 CDT #
cold realities of competition says:
Re: "well, it's not Obama, it's his administration" BS. HE IS THE ADMINISTRATION.
That is a strawman. Geithner *is* Obama's reputation w/r/t Treasury until Geithner resigns. Obama owns his administration's decisions/actions. I have not argued otherwise.
It sounds like you are keeping a more detailed scorecard of Obama v. Bush than me; if so, more power to you. From where I sit and based on what I am seeing, I am not ready to equate 4 years of Obama (most of which time has yet to transpire) with 8 years of Bush.
cold realities of competition Wed Mar 18 10:25:07 2009 CDT #
optimader says:
AIG going hyperbolic, good to see a well oile dmachine rewarded in stock valuation
optimader Wed Mar 18 10:25:49 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Madoff Accountant Friehling Arrested in Ponzi Scheme
Cool. Maybe we'll see more progress on this front going forward:
Ben Bernanke Arrested in 13 Trillion Dollar Ponzi Scheme
ac Wed Mar 18 10:27:14 2009 CDT #
optimader says:
anddd. teh roller coater has just drested the peak
optimader Wed Mar 18 10:27:50 2009 CDT #
Ethan says:
Just a minute on AIG.
Wasn't the purpose of giving them money so that that could pay their insurance policies and credit default swaps (if any)?
When they pay off a counter-party (e.g. a bank) doesn't that help the banks balance sheet?
Doesn't that mean the AIG bailout is doing just what it is supposed to do? In fact, isn't it doing double duty -- saving AIG, PLUS saving the counterparties?
Or am I confused. Help!
Ethan Wed Mar 18 10:30:57 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
ROFL- No; You're not confused. Unfortunately, it's happening at the same time as the bonus scandal, and folks are P.O.'ed!
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 10:43:56 2009 CDT #
Publius13 says:
ac sez: ...for any of you criminal traders out there...
Brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department.
Publius13 Wed Mar 18 10:31:04 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Seems like we've finally reached max bailout fatigue. A little late but at least we can put a collar on Geithner and Bernanke. I'm thinking we're not far from the point where people refuse to pay taxes to the government that's been screwing them for years.
bearly Wed Mar 18 10:32:48 2009 CDT #
nades says:
I can confirm this aia report for slooooow Cal... Its f'in brutal. I'm bidding a f'in mini-mart! (Not that I'm complaining about being employed! :) )
....................
nades Wed Mar 18 10:33:49 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
"I can't comment on that, but [Hank Paulson] actually sounds like a reasonable person, not the villain as he is described here."
Paulson was party to an attempt to destroy the US Government. (It sounds grandiose, but that's basically what the original TARP bill was.) Villain is too common a word for a fiend like that.
NateTG Wed Mar 18 10:37:16 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Fiend, perhaps?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 10:49:11 2009 CDT #
Yearning to Learn says:
JS-Kit says:Today, 10:13:39 AM
“OM NOM NOM NOM"
best post of the day.
Doesn't that mean the AIG bailout is doing just what it is supposed to do? In fact, isn't it doing double duty -- saving AIG, PLUS saving the counterparties?
you are correct. AIG is doing EXACTLY what was intended. thus the true crime.
it is hidden and the American Public can't see it. I'm still not sure if this AIGFP bonus rage is a sideshow, or could it bring everything down...
but yes, the only reason AIG exists today is to shovel money stealthily to the banks. The same reason that Fannie and Freddie exist too. And Ginnie and FHA. And the Fed. And the Treasury.
the modus operandi is to do things on an ad hoc basis, so many that the human mind can't keep them all in mind. We have TARP, TALF, TSLF, CAP, FHA, AIG, and more. for instance; i can't even remember the name of the program to buy mortgage securities at artificially high prices... can you?
Yearning to Learn Wed Mar 18 10:38:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Popeye is so right "It's not the bonuses. Its the CDS. That's the tragedy."
These payouts on the CDS are MORE than what the initial investments were represented for. Why was Lehman allowed to fail, so the born and bred dopes would payout above market values on the investments made in Lehman by your GS, SWF's, etc. etc. etc.
Might be time to march on Wall Street and DC, the thieving is going on right if front of our eyes.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 10:39:11 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Bearly, I agree..mass taxpayer protests coming to a city near you...extension to oct.15, then forget ala timmy g...
cd Wed Mar 18 10:39:47 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Committee Chair: It's going to be rough. We've got to put on a good
show for the people.
Bankster: OK, but the bailouts will keep coming, right?
Chair: You'll get everything.
Bankster: See you at the club.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 10:45:28 2009 CDT #
cd says:
rep. ackerman...I can't believe this is not insurance quote was good...re: cds
cd Wed Mar 18 10:46:28 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
(Powered by JaS-Kid)
debtinator Wed Mar 18 10:51:04 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
In the 25th year of a Reagan-Greenspan initiated credit-binge, out of 17,000 publicly traded U.S. companies, any guesses on how many still have S&P AAA ratings? 1000? 500? More? Less? Answer below:
peAk Wed Mar 18 10:54:25 2009 CDT #
Nearby Pen says:
One of the CNBC Journalist analogies at Systemically Important
Doorknob:
A simple mechanism everyone gets a turn at::
Maria Bartiromo:
Award-winning journalist
http://systemicallyimportant.blogspot.com/2009/03/analogies-cnbc-journalists.html
Nearby Pen Wed Mar 18 10:55:19 2009 CDT #
Apprentice says:
An Anonymous poster here pointed out something quite remarkable about the AIG Bonus jawboning - "why wasn't this anticipated and written into the bailout?" Er, hmm it was anticipated, and the legality of the bonuses were endorsed and passed precisely in the Dodd Amendment to the Stimulus Bill...
H.R.1
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Enrolled as Agreed to or Passed by Both House and Senate)
------------------------------------------------------------------SEC. 111. EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE.
The prohibition required under clause (i) shall not be construed to prohibit any bonus payment required to be paid pursuant to a written employment contract executed on or before February 11, 2009, as such valid employment contracts are determined by the Secretary or the designee of the Secretary.
(When you click on the links given you will be told that the search is not valid but when you do a word search it shows up.)
Outrage my ass! =-O
Apprentice Wed Mar 18 10:57:43 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
"Doesn't that mean the AIG bailout is doing just what it is supposed to do? In fact, isn't it doing double duty -- saving AIG, PLUS saving the counterparties?
you are correct. AIG is doing EXACTLY what was intended. thus the true crime."
Yeah, and can I take it another step and say the bankers knew that the ponzi scheme could collapse but most will look back at it being wildly successful overall?
Sexy Derivative Wed Mar 18 10:59:47 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT-
Broward Horne,
Here's another interesting graph from dshort:
http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend-alt-cpi
You can use either the "official" CPI or the
Shadowstats index, and as it turns out, the official CPI actually shows dual bubbles in 2000 and 2004-7 versus the inflation regression trend, while the ShadowStats doesn't. I suspect that there's something significant there, and it's causally linked to the graph we were discussing the other day:
http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 11:00:10 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
AIG Liddy - Live Feed
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 11:00:39 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
" It Stands For … | 10:40 a.m. This isn’t the first time the acronym of A.I.G.has been morphed into these words, but now Representative Paul Hodes, Democrat of New Hampshire, utters it: “Arrogance. Incompetence. Greed.” "
reptillian Wed Mar 18 11:00:47 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
Must be some good news from the Fed. Market is charging off its lows for the day.
RockyR Wed Mar 18 11:02:14 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
it's going to be interesting to see who inserted that language. so far, Dodd's office is in total denial stage. on the other hand, it clearly shows that neither congress nor the president reads the laws that they enact. so much for the three pens...
Basel Too Wed Mar 18 11:02:23 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Probably the same folks who write most of the laws: the lobbyists.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Wed Mar 18 11:04:57 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Madoff’s Prison Twitter Page
CRbot Wed Mar 18 11:08:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
May be time to go long the market. Elmo just can't win.
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 11:09:01 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
Christopher Dodd ... LOL
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Wed Mar 18 11:10:44 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
All of you are missing it completely. Geithner was deliberately chosen by Obama because he was an idiot. This is a brilliant strategy by Obama to completely discredit Wall Street in order to change the field of battle and steamroll his opponents in Congress.
</channeling Joe Schmoe>
Yancey Ward Wed Mar 18 11:11:03 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The link for the "Dodd Amendment" is time sensitive (which is why it doesn't work) - to get to Dodd's or someone else's Amendment (who was also a beneficary of AIG's campaign contribution largess), go to the following link:
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.1:
the Dodd amendment is contained in Version 8 and is located at the bottom of the page under TITLE VII- LIMITS ON EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION
"(iii) The prohibition required under clause (i) shall not be construed to prohibit any bonus payment required to be paid pursuant to a written employment contract executed on or before February 11, 2009, as such valid employment contracts are determined by the Secretary or the designee of the Secretary."
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 11:11:32 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
The whole AIG bonus problem can be simply rectified like the war on terror. Make it go away by renaming Bonus to something softer like "Complementary Failure Income Reimbursement" Problem disappears like Gitmo terrorist!
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Wed Mar 18 11:12:04 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
S&P and Fitch recently downgrounded GE and Berkshire Hathaway, leaving 5 AAA rated companies out of 17,000: Automatic Data Processing, Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, and Pfizer.
peAk Wed Mar 18 11:13:38 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Jas gets a bit excited at times, but he definitely adds something to the conversation when he can keep the bile down :)
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Wed Mar 18 11:17:41 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
This doesn't seem to be posted, my architect daughter still has her job as of yesterday.
Lawyerliz Wed Mar 18 11:17:50 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
Welcome to Obama's Iraq. The good thing for him is he has almost four years for it to pass.
Sexy Derivative Wed Mar 18 11:18:54 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Charlie Rose: AIG and Meredith Whitney on Banks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/charlie-rose-aig-and-meredith-whitney.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to http://realize.org/cr then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.
--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
CRbot Wed Mar 18 11:19:15 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Jas beats a dead horse, but it is a horse that deserves to be beat over and over. Americans are dopes.
Yancey Ward Wed Mar 18 11:19:44 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
We need to begin the blame game full time. It's well past time for talk, talk, talk. Talk is cheep. The American people want to see heads rolling on Wall Street and in Washington. Point fingers who are to blame for or our economic catastrophe and throw them in jail now!
Michael Wed Mar 18 11:21:22 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The whole AIG bonus problem can be simply rectified like the war on terror.
ya Obama can land on an aircraft carrier and declare victory -- or perhaps appear on Leno and express outrage at the $165m of bonuses (on a bill he signed) while $100billion goes to Goldman and friends
Anonymous Wed Mar 18 11:21:32 2009 CDT #
Apprentice says:
CNN now covering the Dodd Amendment which made the AIG bonus payments legal. They are trying to find out WHO wrote that in. Everyone denying it. Brrrrrrahahaha maybe Nemo?
Apprentice Wed Mar 18 11:25:03 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"The beginning of the end was in 1987....."
.....and followed shortly by the S&L bailouts prompted my exit from real society.
"Getting some of these people in jail will help restore some confidence"
......yeah, right - like anyone other than scapegoats will get any hard time.
"Obama owns his administration's decisions/actions."
.....and see him tonight on Jay Leno! Since it's taped in Burbank at abt 5pm, wonder where The Prez will have dinner? Maybe Spagos? (I haven't kept up on the trendy Westend eateries)
"......it clearly shows that neither congress nor the president reads the laws that they enact."
.....reading has never been a requirement for voting on spending bills or for serving in the legislature and/or The White House. I think being in possession of a brain IS a requirement, though seldom enforced.
Black Star Ranch Wed Mar 18 11:25:23 2009 CDT #
GS Trading Desk says:
Come to the casino.
We've got ooption expiry.
Flashing lights.
Fed reports and congressional hearings.
GS Trading Desk Wed Mar 18 11:26:38 2009 CDT #
REW says:
Talked to an engineer who was working at a specialty steel plant in Akron until last November. Orders fell off a cliff and they mothballed the plant -- he and some other hard-to-replace staff are on 80% pay indefinitely in hopes they can be called back quickly if business picks up. Not sure how long that will last. I doubt the steel his plant produced was used in construction, but the wider drop in demand has hit all steel producers.
REW Wed Mar 18 11:32:58 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Just my guess, but the "Dodd Amendment" was probably written
by Dodd or one of his staffers/lobbyists.
reptillian Wed Mar 18 11:33:40 2009 CDT #
fried says:
Any hope of getting the next bailout package thru Congress is almost certainly dead.
Friedman is worried...says we need to spend the last of the previous bailout, and another 750 billion needs to be presented to Congress. He call it a "Bonfire of the vanities moment"...but we must save the bankers for our own good.
I think its a no-go, and we may finally get an AIG/Citi bankruptcy...who in Congress wants to volunteer to stand in front of angry voters with pitchforks?
fried Wed Mar 18 13:30:50 2009 CDT #
Here we go says:
AIG
Accommadation In Garble
Allusion In Game theory
Here we go Wed Mar 18 19:52:29 2009 CDT #
END