Comments for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Cliff Diving
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4295835373928328532
CRbot Mon Mar 16 08:37:29 2009 CDT #
joe shmoe says:
This does not look very contained to me. Maybe we need a chart on container production.
joe shmoe Mon Mar 16 08:38:58 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
It's rally Time!!! BAC north of 6!
Ben B says no big banks will be allowed to fail. He's has a perfect track record of printing money.he even says so.
boooyaaaahahhahahahha
Comrade Rally Monkey Mon Mar 16 08:39:30 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
ps. you must MUST go back and look at charts from march 9-12, 2003.
don't underestimate this rally!!!
Comrade Rally Monkey Mon Mar 16 08:41:15 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Rallymonkey,
Who did we invade?
Parent Post
Yancey Ward Mon Mar 16 08:42:29 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Thank glod the second derivative is positive.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 08:41:42 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Industrial production is focused about around automotive/truck production. Our economy today is a mirror of the 50's building freeways and new subdivisions and it finally exhausted itself.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 08:42:16 2009 CDT #
Brian E. Arner says:
Interesting that during the recovery following 2001, it just barely exceeded 80% at its peak. Too much capacity!
Brian E. Arner Mon Mar 16 08:43:24 2009 CDT #
M, says:
Here is a good example.
Volkswagen partnered with Chrystler to build the Routan Minivan. (Thats a whole thread right there).
It started selling late 2008. 3,400 were sold in 2008, and 1,200 have been sold this year. Thats a total of 4,400 Routans sold.
Well, 29,000 Routans have been built. The plant building them was cranking out up to 300 a day.
So VW has almost 25,000 extra, unsold Routans sitting around. You can now get 0% financing and probably $4,000 of MSRP, but I'd bet thats going to come down more.
VW has asked Chrystler to stop production for at least a month.
This is nuts, the plant can build 300 Routans a day, and in February 2009, only 500 were sold. Thats right about two days of production worth.
M, Mon Mar 16 08:46:24 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
The slope of the current decline is steeper than the decline of the 80s. That suggests to me that it's going lower.
reptillian Mon Mar 16 08:46:49 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
Who cares about these lagging indicators? They are soooo yesterday. The Market Indexes are the only true indicators and they say we are all better now. Back to normal. Carry on. Get back to work. Quit worrying. Put your guns and beans away and refill your prescriptions. Visit Disney. Get back in the game. Erections lasting more than 4 days can be dangerous to your health.
Morocco Bama Mon Mar 16 08:47:22 2009 CDT #
Bfatz says:
Crack for breakfast...it does the body good, can't say much for the brain though...
Parent Post
Bfatz Mon Mar 16 08:51:36 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
Who did we invade?
shhhh. don't get serious on me.
this rally needs hard core pollyannna's. now
Booooyaaahahahahahhah
Comrade Rally Monkey Mon Mar 16 08:47:46 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Rally Monkey,
Ok, got it. ;)
Parent Post
Yancey Ward Mon Mar 16 09:27:44 2009 CDT #
fallonPDX says:
This is the bottom!
Happy Days are here again! :-P
fallonPDX Mon Mar 16 08:47:51 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Looks like Mr Tan King comes to the Big Apple.
From previous thread, VIXy is vertical. Putting on the beef today. Steroids and special k.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 08:48:05 2009 CDT #
tanaw says:
Geitner/Bernanke have any furniture left in their house?
Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian economist from the early part of the twentieth century, once noted: “It may be expedient for a man to heat the stove with his furniture; but he should not delude himself by believing that he has discovered a wonderful new method of heating his premises
tanaw Mon Mar 16 08:52:37 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
LOL....I will say, MB, you are a pain but also humorous at times.
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 08:54:11 2009 CDT #
Martin, the Netherlands says:
I see that the TIC flows figures for January are a bit negative. Long term flows from $ +34.7 billion to $ -43.0 billion, total flows from $ +86.2 billion to $ -148.9 billion. I understand that this means that non-US investors are (on a net basis) taking their money out of the US. Could I ask readers to comment on these figures?
Martin, the Netherlands Mon Mar 16 08:54:33 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
AIG Counter-Party Details
CRbot Mon Mar 16 08:55:37 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
All this good news over the weekend about AIG, manufacturing, industrial production, etc. has helped fuel this rally along quite nicely.
/snark off
RockyR Mon Mar 16 08:56:51 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Can someone remind me how many cliffs there are? Seems like quite a few.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 09:03:01 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT-
Holy smokes, http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet
has really interesting graph today. It has inflation/deflation adjusted charts of his "4 bad bears", and it's freakish how the dot.com tracks GDI. Our current troubles look like year 7 of the GDI.
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 09:03:58 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Rally looks weak. Sell at will.
reptillian Mon Mar 16 09:06:16 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Our current troubles look like year 7 of the GDI."
As I've said several times, the real crash began in 2001. Greenspan's intervention created the current anomaly, which nobody, including Greesnpan, cares to talk about.
Broward Horne Mon Mar 16 09:07:20 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Yes, you have said it, and I for one have been listening. BTW, is that you picture you're using as an avatar?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 09:23:07 2009 CDT #
MS says:
OT:
For research purposes does anyone have a good link that lists the various bull/bear ETF's? A friend of mine is looking for a quick and dirty listing...anyone have a single link that shows them?
TIA
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:11:35 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Unemployed people are good for the environment. They use less natural resources, especially gasoline. The environmentalists should be very happy about this as good stewards of the planet and should encourage more unemployment.
Michael Mon Mar 16 09:16:41 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Cinco-X - the current rally may look similar to the Nasdaq rally and fall at year 1.5 of the collapse, but what is even more slaient is the compression vs GD1 of the longer-dated declines. That is, it would appear to be happening in this collapse along a similar dynamic but faster, and heading nasty territory, like 80% off peak.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 09:17:12 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
If you view the situation starting in 2000 as BH does, you'll note that on an inflation adjusted basis, we're already in the 7th year of this mess, and we're also about 70% down. Unfortunately, the big fall in '37 occurred after a drop in govt. spending, and an increase in taxes. We'll have to see what fate has in store for us this time around.
xxxxx
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 09:29:32 2009 CDT #
MS says:
Thanks for that Guest....
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:19:14 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
CNBC is running clips of the politiclowns claiming outrage for AIG bonuses. They are either blowing a smoke screen for the people or they were the biggest DA's on earth. When they gave the money to any of these banks or insurance cos. they missed putting in a limit or no bonuses policy. We wonder how we got into this problem! *DONT_KNOW*
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 16 09:20:16 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
After the John Stewart Cramer interview, I don't think people will watch CNBC the same way again.. Everyone is looking for a change on that clown network.
Parent Post
Michael Mon Mar 16 09:24:57 2009 CDT #
mark says:
I suspect they've learned their lesson and we won't be hearing any more criticism of the administration.
Parent Post
mark Mon Mar 16 09:31:29 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Is there any reason to believe that the peopple that watch the Daily Show also watch CNBC, or visa versa?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 09:31:39 2009 CDT #
MS says:
found what I needed on the long side as well...
I needed something that just listed them with no 'apparent' bias....somewhat hard to do in today's environment.
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:23:35 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
MS says:
Today, 7:11:35 AM
“OT:
For research purposes does anyone have a good link that lists the various bull/bear ETF's? A friend of mine is looking for a quick and dirty listing...anyone have a single link that shows them?
http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm
Here are the Bear funds
alambka Mon Mar 16 09:24:56 2009 CDT #
MS says:
thanks Alambka...
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:26:54 2009 CDT #
MS says:
based on the comments from last night I gather our apologist GS lover decided he was over-matched by just a little bit.
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:28:05 2009 CDT #
S says:
having lurked while that convo went on - it was clear he was at best operations..
Parent Post
S Mon Mar 16 10:27:05 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
MS, may I suggest etfconnect.com?
burnside Mon Mar 16 09:30:34 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
Does this mean we are in a recession? Oh golly...
Automonkey Mon Mar 16 09:31:51 2009 CDT #
MS says:
you may......thanks for the link. I'll send them over to my friend after I give them all a good "lookin'" over...
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:33:02 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"After the John Stewart Cramer interview, I don't think people will watch CNBC the same way again.. Everyone is looking for a change on that clown network."
If we like a particular information source we are generally wanting to hear their bias. All of it is biased to some extent as they pump their sponsors ideals for advertising dollars.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Mon Mar 16 09:33:12 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
I don't think this rally is done quite yet.
popeye Mon Mar 16 09:34:10 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Everyone knows it's a suckers rally, thats why the sell off, when it comes, will be very violent. I cheer lead it higher so i can watch a bigger sell off.
Parent Post
Michael Mon Mar 16 09:42:46 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
The United States declared bankruptcy in 1933 and never emerged. Can we still refile?
Michael Mon Mar 16 09:34:30 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"is that your picture you're using as an avatar?"
Yes. I thought about using Morocco's face but I wasn't sure I could handle the extra flak.
Broward Horne Mon Mar 16 09:34:32 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Well, you look like hell, but it has been a long 7 years;-)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 09:57:46 2009 CDT #
MS says:
who was it that bought FAZ towards the close on Friday?
With the potential for more "warm fuzzy's" this week I'd really be questioning that at this point.
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 09:34:40 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
This rally could have some legs. Hold on tight, when it's over....
volker the viking Mon Mar 16 09:35:30 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
I think you want to short this rally on its back side.
Sexy Derivative Mon Mar 16 09:40:07 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
http://www.businessinsider.com/four-bad-bear-markets-chart-2009-2
dunno if anyone is still watching...
volker the viking Mon Mar 16 09:40:24 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
My guess is that the "natural K-Wave" would have fallen from 2001 until 2012 or so but Greenspan (knowingly) fiddled significantly with it. I have little doubt the Bernanke understands all this. But from a high-level view, it's going to look similar anyway.
I'm a little bothered by the spate of similar Flow Of Funds commentaries and Bernanke & OBama's sudden 'confidence-building' appearances.
I didn't realize that the Vegas stocks had breached their previous lows again. Even WYNN hit 90+% loss in March and MGM and LVS are in the 95% range. Looks a lot like the financial stocks. :)
Broward Horne Mon Mar 16 09:40:35 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
who was it that bought FAZ towards the close on Friday?
That might have been me. Buying FAZ in the mid-thirties to hedge against my net longs in financials. Playing the dips both long and short just for kicks.
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 09:43:07 2009 CDT #
z says:
Lowering tariffs has led to a crash in production and trade. It's time to stimulate by encouraging production via higher tariffs.
z Mon Mar 16 09:44:33 2009 CDT #
1 currency [yogi] says:
CNBC moron with phd: "They've come up with a formula.
F=2.5G (Fear, Greed). It's getting dumber out there.
1 currency [yogi] Mon Mar 16 09:47:15 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
What they fail to notice is that their constant of 2.5 is actually a variable, which could get much larger ;-)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:00:13 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
"If we like a particular information source we are generally wanting to hear their bias. All of it is biased to some extent as they pump their sponsors ideals for advertising dollars."
There's some truth to that. But there's also format preference: If you compare, for example, the News Hour which typically features multiple perspectives in a dialog, to a typical talking head news broadcast, there's a pretty big non-ideological difference.
NateTG Mon Mar 16 09:47:17 2009 CDT #
tanaw says:
Next stop, SPX 800. Sell off sometime after that, (800-1000) will be fast and violent.
tanaw Mon Mar 16 09:49:41 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
1 currency: hee hee just what we need another formula, dig in folk, put some hot sauce on it
volker the viking Mon Mar 16 09:50:12 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
This makes sense. Credit bubble popped. Consumption/demand fell in the US. Factories closed/slowed down significantly in Asia+Europe. Consumption/demand fell in Asia+Europe. Our factories are slowing down...
Has anybody calculated how the end of MEW, stock wealth effects, unemployment losses, etc.. affect the overall consumption numbers?
Automonkey Mon Mar 16 09:51:21 2009 CDT #
Slid says:
All I know is that the capacity utilization rate of semiconductor fabs is low, low, low, gut-wrenching, horrible, historic, never-before seen, not-even-when folks-were-making-chips-in-garages level LOW!
Slid Mon Mar 16 09:52:33 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Not all of them, but the only one I know that is holding its own is REALLY small. In the noise, really.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:01:37 2009 CDT #
fried says:
MS...this has all the etfs, in a couple of formats...I like the map graphic.
http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=etf
fried Mon Mar 16 09:52:54 2009 CDT #
Comrade Tiberius says:
The Green's destruction of the world economy is on track.
Comrade Tiberius Mon Mar 16 09:55:54 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Tragically, it doesn't have to be that way....
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:06:43 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
PBGC Assumes East River Management Corp. Pension Plan
PBGC Protects Intermet Corp. Pension Plans
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 09:57:15 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Whoa, the one-day VIXy chart is schizophrenic:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=VIX%3AIND
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 09:57:21 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"you look like hell"
That's back in 2007 when I used to work.
I'm over that, now.
Broward Horne Mon Mar 16 10:01:04 2009 CDT #
1134 says:
Is the Baltic drying up again?
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
1134 Mon Mar 16 10:03:06 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT-
I realize that this looks bad for our economy, but does anyone know what the equivalent graph looks like for China? That might tell us more about the next 5 years than anything. This assumes that the dynamics of the worldwide market for goods and svcs. doesn't change completely.
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:05:02 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
everyone all at once
citi group citi group citi group citi group
booooyahahhahahhaha up 50% minimum today!
Comrade Rally Monkey Mon Mar 16 10:06:59 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....a bumper sticker seen says, "Honk If I'm Paying You Mortgage"
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 10:08:31 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT- BSR: Do you folks raise goats?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:09:32 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
[your]
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 10:08:45 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
CNBC is running clips of the politiclowns claiming outrage for AIG bonuses. When they gave the money to any of these banks or insurance cos. they missed putting in a limit or no bonuses policy.
The AIG giveaway $170 billion giveaway was done purely by the Fed and the Executive Branch. Congress had no say whatsoever. They weren't even asked. It's blatantly against the Constitution, which gives the power of the purse to Congress (with a priority to the House), although they excuse it on the slippery legal basis of the Federal Reserve.
Fair Economist Mon Mar 16 10:14:28 2009 CDT #
MS says:
fried-
I like that alot and will keep the link for myself......nothing but confusion for the person I'm looking for...thanks for the link.
Basel-
If you bought it on friday thats not "mid-thirty's" my friend. It's there now...
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 10:16:30 2009 CDT #
z says:
Only whiners hate bailouts.
z Mon Mar 16 10:19:39 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
MARCH MADNESS!!!
bearly Mon Mar 16 10:23:16 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
If you bought it on friday thats not "mid-thirty's" my friend. It's there now...
I didn't buy it on Friday. However, I did state last week sometime, that I was buying it mid-thirties. Now, I'm not so sure...
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 10:24:13 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
BOoooooyaahahhahah
ROFLMAO
before noon up 50%!
lb i luv ya!
Comrade Rally Monkey Mon Mar 16 10:24:18 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Wiliam Black Savages Treasury's Conduct on AIG
CRbot Mon Mar 16 10:24:38 2009 CDT #
1 currency [yogi] says:
I see. Stress tests would show banks are insolvent, so change mark-to-market so banks now have enough capital. Problem solved.
1 currency [yogi] Mon Mar 16 10:24:50 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Sooo many mental recessions.
C'MON!
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 10:26:21 2009 CDT #
Sen. Jack Ass says:
I'm shocked, shocked to find that bonuses are going on here!
Sen. Jack Ass Mon Mar 16 10:26:30 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
yogi: that same gameplan is going to be applied to the insurance companies :(
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 10:26:41 2009 CDT #
1134 says:
March 16th used to be the first day of Bacchanalia. Hope it helps.
1134 Mon Mar 16 10:26:44 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
All sectors green!
reptillian Mon Mar 16 10:27:00 2009 CDT #
1 currency [yogi] says:
Well, at least my C 2.5 calls are looking hedgeworthy. They cost a nickel last week.
1 currency [yogi] Mon Mar 16 10:27:18 2009 CDT #
Zephyrum says:
OT, but the US Mint has suspended production of the American Eagle proof and uncirculated coins in gold and silver because of "unprecedented demand" and a shortage of bullion blanks. Is the bullion blank machinery running at full capacity or are they unable to acquire metal of the appropriate quality/alloy? Given reported exchange warehouse inventory numbers I'd expect we would be swimming in PMs.
Zephyrum Mon Mar 16 10:28:04 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
Today, 8:41:15 AM
“ps. you must MUST go back and look at charts from march 9-12, 2003.
don't underestimate this rally!!!
you mean we're starting another war?!? yay! bullish news!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 16 10:28:40 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
The Ratings Trap
CRbot Mon Mar 16 10:30:28 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Doomsters have this all wrong. This is "The Plan." This is ripping the bandaid off quickly. Momentary pain followed by blessed relief. The stump that used to be the financial arm of the economy ilwl still gush blood but those damn bandaids will stop itching. It's all baked in.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 16 10:31:05 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Phantom Limb Economy?
--bh
Parent Post
blackhat Mon Mar 16 12:07:59 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
blackhat says:Today, 10:07:59 AM PDT
Phantom Limb Economy?
And thus memes are born.
Parent Post
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 16 12:15:01 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Do you folks raise goats?"
No, Cinco-X, just cattle, chickens, horses, dogs, cats, rabbits, quail, lizards, and kids.
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 10:33:21 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
OT- I'm in the process of starting a hobby farm, but I don't have the room for all of that, so I'm going to try to go with dwarf and pygmy goats, chickens, ducks, and maybe Angora rabbits. Between that and a small garden, all of my arable land will be used up. The PRM has decided that since a perennial stream runs through my property, I'm not allowed to use almost 2 acres of it. Jeez-
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:47:16 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
The slope of the current decline is steeper than the decline of the 80s. That suggests to me that it's going lower.
Good call. None of the metrics used to analyze the 25 year Reagan/Greenspan initiated credit-binge run-up are of any value in evaluating the worldwide credit collapse. Not that they were helpful in revealing the credit-market-debt to GDP run-up either, as it unfolded in plain sight as here:
peAk Mon Mar 16 10:33:47 2009 CDT #
z says:
No wonder the Harvard elite owns you.
z Mon Mar 16 10:33:58 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"All I know is that the capacity utilization rate of semiconductor fabs is low, low, low, gut-wrenching, horrible, historic, never-before seen, not-even-when folks-were-making-chips-in-garages level LOW!"
So you're saying now would not be a good time to move down to Austin and look for work with AMD? :-D
RockyR Mon Mar 16 10:35:30 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Does AMD have its own fab, or does it use TSMC?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 10:48:15 2009 CDT #
wally says:
The interesting think about the "Mega-Bears" chart linked above by Cinco-X is that none of those lines ever got back to the starting point
wally Mon Mar 16 10:36:23 2009 CDT #
Mark2Madoff says:
AIG Says $105 Billion Flowed to Goldman, U.S. States
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awiPvRbKoabA&refer=home
meanwhile CNBC is spending all of their time talking about the $165m of bonuses -- Larry Krudlow has asked viewers to email him:
thecall@cnbc.com
Mark2Madoff Mon Mar 16 10:40:39 2009 CDT #
Sue (Capital S) says:
Could you tell me what the implications are of the 105 billion going to Goldman? I understand, and am outraged at, the bonuses going to a company that is on taxpayer support, but I don't understand this larger issue and what it means to me. Many thanks!
Parent Post
Sue (Capital S) Mon Mar 16 11:56:13 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Manic Depression.... just don't be smoking up large when you watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRXAYap1cyg
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 10:42:13 2009 CDT #
mp says:
70.9% of what? Industrial capacity in this country is a mere shadow of what it once was.
This is another number that should be adjusted to show what it *really* means.
mp Mon Mar 16 10:42:26 2009 CDT #
MLM says:
For some reason that reminds me of one of my favorite fortune cookie messages:
"They say that two can live on $5,000 a year. But they don't say two what."
Parent Post
MLM Mon Mar 16 10:50:44 2009 CDT #
black dog says:
Interesting that nasdaq is negative.
Here is what I told my broker a month ago when the dow was at 7850 going into the president's day weekend.
The market is going to auger down to 6500 and then retrace to 7500-7800 (if it makes it to the higher end it might do a look-see above 8000) before going down into the 5's.
I'll add that my broker has half jokingly said he's going to videotape a deposition and send it cnbc for my calls the last 15 months.
black dog Mon Mar 16 10:43:40 2009 CDT #
punditry says:
oh boy....jas getting creamed today in the bonds.
punditry Mon Mar 16 10:44:12 2009 CDT #
Mark2Madoff says:
Dear Mr. Krudlow:
AIG Says $105 Billion Flowed to Goldman, U.S. States
why don't you idiots report that instead of the endless loop about the $165m of bonuses
Mark2Madoff Mon Mar 16 10:44:42 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
The slope of the current decline is steeper than the decline of the 80s. That suggests to me that it's going lower.
Good call. None of the metrics used to analyze the 25 year Reagan/Greenspan initiated credit-binge run-up are of any value in evaluating the worldwide credit collapse. Not that they were helpful in revealing the credit-market-debt to GDP run-up either, as it unfolded in plain sight as here:
peAk Mon Mar 16 10:46:22 2009 CDT #
Dean Valentine says:
Mark to Market suspended at company's option. BAC, C, JPM, FNM/FRE all have a fighting chance of survival now.
Dean Valentine Mon Mar 16 10:46:51 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
U! S! A! We're Number .... 15?
By Dalton Conley, The Nation. Posted March 16, 2009.
A new report shows that in terms of aggregate health, education, purchasing power, security and general well-being, the U.S. has been in decline.
adornosghost Mon Mar 16 10:47:22 2009 CDT #
Barrett808 says:
Love that long-term downward trend. Statistically significant, yes?
Barrett808 Mon Mar 16 10:47:51 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Black Star Ranch,
Is it true that kids taste like chicken?
Yancey Ward Mon Mar 16 10:48:11 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I have 3 siblings
Sibling A: Construction company. Was 10 plus SW offices - now 3. HQ is Phoenix
Sibling B: BK last week. Rode the equity pony
Sibling C: Hanging on by the nails. Layoff and cancer
If what is being mentioned (depression) is true, then they are all doomed. None of them are really baby boomers but they are also not youngsters. No health care, credit destroyed or will be, skills are not in demand and will not be for years. Then they will need to compete against younger models. I am glad they don't have a clue. I hope they do not get one either, at least for awhile.
nova Mon Mar 16 10:50:16 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
All the depression-istas are revisting their calculations... mp? Jas?
crispy and cole Mon Mar 16 10:50:59 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
How long before the followers of Glen Beck sell their guns and gold...for a 50% loss?
crispy and cole Mon Mar 16 10:52:35 2009 CDT #
Sen. Jack Ass says:
As I travel this great land of ours, the American people tell me, "Sen. Jack Ass, I believe in the folks at AIG. I know they're hard working."
"That's why I want the average AIG executive to have bonuses for FY2008 equal to or greater than my cumulative salary for ten years. I'll contribute in any way I can, including complying with foreclosure proceedings and asset forfeiture on terms acceptable to my creditors."
"But, Senator Jack Ass, I'm just concerned that with the current downturn, the AIG guys will be afraid to spend enough of these bonuses on really fun unnecessary things when we all sorely need them to do in order to get the economy rolling again."
I understand.
When I came to Washington last January, I swore to always look the American people right in their six hundred million eyes and tell them the truth.
Unfortunately, there's just no guarantee that even extra-flush AIG executives can buy all the extra cars, flatscreens, iPods, Hawaiian vacations and heaps of unsold arugula we've got piled up due to this completely unforeseeable downturn.
But if there's one thing I know, the American people like to see their economic role models rolling in the green. I feel safe in saying that come hell or high water, we'll continue to make that dream a reality going forward.
Sen. Jack Ass Mon Mar 16 10:54:48 2009 CDT #
mp says:
@Crispy
I have no reason to change my views. This rally is necessary.
What do you want me to say?
What do you expect me to say?
I've seen all of this before. Same story, different decade.
mp Mon Mar 16 10:55:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
mustard seeds!
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 10:58:24 2009 CDT #
mp says:
@Anonymous
Yeah, exactly, mustard seeds! Some pump monkeys planted some mustard seeds. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Meanwhile, I've got a machine shop to organize.
Have a good day.
mp Mon Mar 16 11:00:54 2009 CDT #
cd says:
BSR-raising quail is sure easier than hunting those fast little suckers over desert hills, especiall on shale rock with a 12 gauge...they taste good on the barby! pops is saying they might get 2-3 hatches this year in AZ. desert...good hunting next year or should I say shooting and missing....
cd Mon Mar 16 11:01:04 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
They can sometimes be rather dry. Do y'all wrap them in bacon or something? Maybe it's because I skin them rather than pluck them.
xxxxx
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 11:02:59 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
mp - I have been in the no depression camp from the beginning, I hope I am right and you are wrong (honestly)...I am seeing positive sings in my business and I am one of the biggest bears on these blogs (since mid2005). I have been in the severe recession camp all along and we are no where near a depression. I believe the depression-istas will be as wrong as Sebastions endless bull calls...or maybe I am all wet and an idiot (wont be the first time)
crispy and cole Mon Mar 16 11:01:27 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
crispy and cole says: (Today, 11:01:27 AM)
"...I am seeing positive sings in my business"
Hey, if you can't sing positive songs at work where can you sing?
Seriously though, what general business do you run? I'm near a
wealthy exurb, top-15 in disposable income probably, and it looks deserted.
Parent Post
NervousRex Mon Mar 16 11:08:00 2009 CDT #
S says:
crisp and cole what business are you in?
Parent Post
S Mon Mar 16 11:22:25 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
credit repair
Parent Post
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 11:40:06 2009 CDT #
Mark2Madoff says:
President Obama about to speak on Small Business Stimulus Package - but will he mention his outrage at the $165m AIG bonuses (absolutely) - will he mention the $100 billion to Goldman et al. (not a chance)
Mark2Madoff Mon Mar 16 11:02:09 2009 CDT #
cd says:
I think this rally topped at 770....740 might be next before 800
cd Mon Mar 16 11:03:05 2009 CDT #
mp says:
@crispy
Crispy, I know your record here and I hope I'm wrong.
The problem is that hope is not a plan. I'll hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Again, I *hope* you're right, but I'm not going to count on it. The whole economy is just way too dicey.
Again, have a great day.
mp Mon Mar 16 11:03:51 2009 CDT #
fafhrd says:
I have been in the no depression camp from the beginning
I am one of the biggest bears on these blogs
Something here doesn't fit.
fafhrd Mon Mar 16 11:05:13 2009 CDT #
ecoshift says:
Hey, AIG management landed a 170 billion dollar deal. No bonus? They worked nights and weekends to save the global financial system.
/snark
ecoshift Mon Mar 16 11:05:52 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"...lizards..."
For shoes and belts? Or just by-the-by?
Pavel Mon Mar 16 11:06:45 2009 CDT #
cd says:
bacon wrapped sounds interesting...I use bacon wrap on 1 inch cubed swordfish and baste with plum sauce on a skewer with all the other kabob ingredients...delicious and always a hit with the ladies I was wooing in newport beach days...
cd Mon Mar 16 11:07:16 2009 CDT #
NervousRex says:
cd: "...I use bacon wrap on 1 inch cubed swordfish"
Just dip it in some butter and it makes a nice 12h candle.
Fish-scented candles .... mmmm.
Parent Post
NervousRex Mon Mar 16 11:14:53 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"OT, but the US Mint has suspended production of the American Eagle proof and uncirculated coins in gold and silver because of "unprecedented demand" and a shortage of bullion blanks. Is the bullion blank machinery running at full capacity or are they unable to acquire metal of the appropriate quality/alloy? Given reported exchange warehouse inventory numbers I'd expect we would be swimming in PMs."
Consider that the production runs of one-ounce bullion coins were not, historically, all that large. Any sizeable increase in demand might stress the supply chain.
A couple of years ago, I figured out that for the price of a modest house in California (at that time, and not in the nicest areas) you could buy 1 percent of the entire gold bullion eagle production for the year.
It's not hard to overcrowd a marketplace that small.
Bob Dobbs Mon Mar 16 11:07:59 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
The unprecedented demand was probably due to the various bankers who gave themselves large bonuses last Fall with gold coins valuated at face value./snark
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 11:11:09 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"I use bacon wrap on 1 inch cubed swordfish"
I bet the mercury in the swordfish makes their eyes light up in warm weather.
Pavel Mon Mar 16 11:09:47 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
One a week and you're okay. Seriously.
I can't eat swordfish anymore. I was eating it regularly some years back when my wife brought home some that was not-so-fresh. I ate it, but I couldn't stomach it after that. Oh well; I guess I should try it again. It has been awhile.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 11:13:51 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Nobody with a lick of sense would want a economic depression.
nova Mon Mar 16 11:09:58 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Old money might. It just makes their holding worth that much more, and they're not out looking for a job.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 11:28:04 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
A 29-year-old man who works for a large investment management firm and was at Bagatelle’s brunch one recent Saturday and at Merkato 55’s the next, put it another way: “If you’d asked me in October, I’d say it’d be a different situation, and I don’t think I’d be here. Then the government gave us $10 billion.”
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Mon Mar 16 11:10:07 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
crispy and mp - I respect you fully, but this sucker is going down. The fundamentals don't check out, the near term stuff looks horrible. Take yourselves, your relatives and others to a safe place.
The fuses are lit. Blue touch paper is alight. Stay away.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 11:17:12 2009 CDT #
MS says:
peak-
Just think of the euphoria that will ensue when those same metrics are used going forward......it works on both sides of the trade. I really think that the market was allowed to drop into the 6k range to create yet another bottom. We still have Treasury pulling the strings but they are a bit more subtle than Paulson when he just chose to ram-rod the market up 600 points in little more than half a trading day.
The big dilemma, of course, is how they continue to spin the "recovery" when the continued claims is over one million later this year.
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 11:17:19 2009 CDT #
Mark2Madoff says:
President Obama says he will look to rescind the AIG bonuses. Oh the humanity!
Mark2Madoff Mon Mar 16 11:19:10 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
re: mercury in the fish
Beware, too, of calcium suplements.
A lot of them are made from fish bone.
reptillian Mon Mar 16 11:23:37 2009 CDT #
cd says:
I bet the mercury in the swordfish makes their eyes light up in warm weather....
here I was thinking it was my average looks....
you would have to eat a lot of swordfish for any issues to develop..
http://www.fda.gov/fdac/reprints/mercury.html
I don't eat as much fish now becse of overfishing..as a diver and fisherperson I have seen it firsthand...
like bees they are the canary in the coal mine.....
cd Mon Mar 16 11:24:51 2009 CDT #
Mark2Madoff says:
this is testimony time - first we have assistant pastor Geithner make some opening remarks and give a benediction and now some troubled souls sharing their economic woes - momentarily - the miracle service will begin
Mark2Madoff Mon Mar 16 11:30:47 2009 CDT #
Asun says:
Well, clearly "hope" works. Check out this headline:
Bernanke hopes for early end to recession boosts markets for 5th day
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090316/business/dollar_markets
Asun Mon Mar 16 11:31:20 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"Check this headline:
Bernanke hopes for early end to recession boosts markets for 5th day
Clearly hope works. Let's all hope."
Bernanke is hoping for an early end, Roubini -- never the most extreme of the doomsayers -- has changed his outlook to allow for the possibility of a much longer, deeper recession.
Since one has been much more right than the other so far, I have to side with that one.
Bob Dobbs Mon Mar 16 11:32:27 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Oh heck. Can we all just agree that there will be some serious smiting done?
nova Mon Mar 16 11:34:56 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Is it true that kids taste like chicken?"
Nope - another falsehood - probably one of those oldtimers' myths.
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 11:37:40 2009 CDT #
nova says:
"Is it true that kids taste like chicken?"
Rumor has it that suburban kids are much too fatty.
nova Mon Mar 16 11:40:44 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
More like pork-
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 16 12:29:58 2009 CDT #
cd says:
my thinking is flawed..
“I think this rally topped at 770....740 might be next before 800
cd Mon Mar 16 11:40:57 2009 CDT #
nova says:
So do can they lie or just estimate?
AP - The Obama administration announced Monday that the 21 largest banks receiving government money must report monthly on how much lending they do to small businesses.
nova Mon Mar 16 11:43:14 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Let me make it good, and I will be the one to knock it down:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KCxfG32Gts
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 11:43:40 2009 CDT #
MS says:
Treasuries are saying that BB is in there buying them yet again....it's total BS that they are still "thinking about it"...look at the action in T-notes on the first full trading day of the year. Tell me he has not already done it.....
Ciao
MS
MS Mon Mar 16 11:45:48 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Black Star Ranch says:Today, 9:37:40 AM PDT
"Is it true that kids taste like chicken?"
Nope - another falsehood - probably one of those oldtimers' myths.
More like Bottlenose Dolphin. It's Spotted Owl that tastes like chicken.
Seriously, C&C is not seeing a depression. I respect him but I don't see how we get from here to where we need to be without all paths leading through a period of depression. Our financial arm is broken. The child in us is wailing "leave it be, just wrap it up and give me something for the pain." The adult in us knows we have to set the bone and it is going to hurt like hell or else it will heal crooked.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 16 11:47:22 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
My, wife's maternal grandparents kept chickens on the farm. Nothing like it for freshness and convenience. They hadn't a dime in the stock market either, nothing like it for peace of mind.
Her maternal grandfather was a pipeline expert and worked for Kellog from about the '20s to 1950, in places like Iran and Argentina. It later became part of KBR, I believe. He did have money in the market, and did handsomely in it, having bought investments in many successful firms. But now the money has been parceled out to the grandchildren, and there isn't much left of it.
Love is the only thing that lasts.
Pavel Mon Mar 16 11:49:35 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
'...maternal grandfather...'
paternal
Pavel Mon Mar 16 11:50:16 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
BB did not see this recession comming buy he sees when it may end ! Wonderful
WAWAWA Mon Mar 16 11:52:29 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
The child in me also wants lex talionis.
popeye Mon Mar 16 11:53:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Clawback on the Bonuses anyone? How about some concessions to make sure the Global Ponzi System doesn't unwind to quickly
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 11:56:31 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
lehmq is up 18% today. wonder how the suspension of M2M works in BK proceedings 8-)
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 11:57:01 2009 CDT #
joe shmoe says:
I agree completely with this analysis by William Black, posted by Yves at Naked Capitalism:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/wiliam-black-savages-treasurys-conduct.html
Wiliam Black Savages Treasury's Conduct on AIG
William Black, now a professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri (Kansas City) was a senior bank regulator during the savings loan crisis (his claim to fame was his pursuit of Charles Keating of Lincoln Savings, in which he was removed from the initiative and more management friendly investigators were assigned, and events later proved Black correct). Black has seen a lot of bad behavior at close range.
He is not at all impressed with how the Treasury has handled AIG. Via e-mail:
This is the consequence of six things on the Treasury end of things:
(1) the failure to use Chapter 11 bankruptcy/pass-through receivership to deal with deeply insolvent financial institutions
(2) the failure to expose, and to the extent possible, remedy through restatements the massive accounting fraud that AIG was/is engaged in that triggers the bonuses
(3) the failure to bring criminal charges against the control frauds
(4) the failure of Treasury as negotiators -- they had all the leverage when they bailed out AIG and could have conditioned the aid on at least the VP tier and above giving up their bonuses
(5) the weakness of Treasury's current lawyers who, if press reports are accurate, couldn't think of any way for the U.S. government to take effective action against what it reportedly views as a scandal,
(6) (and I haven't seen this discussed) why was Treasury blind-sided by this? It confirms that they did not conduct even the most obvious due diligence on AIG's assets and contingent liabilities
joe shmoe Mon Mar 16 11:58:15 2009 CDT #
Chuckles for Citgroup says:
This is awesome. I was concerned that the market was getting too low, and options premiums too high, to make any money on puts. And now, low and behold, the biggest turds have risen from the dead and in many cases nearly doubled.
I'm looking at the following: GS, JPM, MS, WFC, VNO, SPG, MET, PRU, SHLD
It may be a little bit too early to start shorting them aggressively, but there's going to be a great opportunity coming up soon.
Chuckles for Citgroup Mon Mar 16 11:59:13 2009 CDT #
Comrade alexei mikhailovich says:
The odd thing about the AIG list was that the only eurobank with serious exposure was socGen with $11bn, when many chicken little were claiming that this was the iceberg below the waters that would hole the eurozone banking system. At this point only Austria is fully exposed, and the Swissy is being tanked to keep eastern mortgage paper from defaulting.
Is there any reason why I shouldn't sift even more assets into euro denominated paper?
Comrade alexei mikhailovich Mon Mar 16 11:59:16 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Now It's Official; Public Private Partnership to Overpay for Toxic Bank Assets
CRbot Mon Mar 16 12:00:08 2009 CDT #
Splat says:
Can't we replace all these manufacturing jobs with new green jobs ? Building solar panels to provide power for the builders of wind-turbine generators, all with heavy govt. subsides of course.
The mantra of the late 2000's "You don't need an economy stupid !"
Splat Mon Mar 16 12:01:12 2009 CDT #
joe shmoe says:
Obama's statement on AIG is pathetic. He is merely giving Geithner orders to try again to stop the bonuses. Obama is not calling the AIG CEO Liddy, nor is he giving orders to bring a shareholder lawsuit or to Chapter 11/nationalize AIG, nor is he giving orders to investigate AIG for fraud. He is just telling Geithner to "try."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/us/politics/17obama.html?hp
Obama is talking about geithner as if Treasury was an independent organization, not a wing of the Executive branch under Obama's command. Something is very wrong here. Very wrong.
joe shmoe Mon Mar 16 12:01:36 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Now It's Official; Public Private Partnership to Overpay for Toxic Bank Assets
well duh. the PPIF is basically going to spawn a crap load of Lone Star type deals for the banks.
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 12:01:41 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
Rob - I think the recovery will be very weak and sluggish for sometime. I still think UE goes to 11%...however, just in calls I am making to other CFO's and CPA's of other companies in CA, things are slowly stabilizing...very slowly, but not getting worse.
Maybe my sample size is not a true sample?
Maybe my own company is not a good indicator?
I am willing to question my own assumptions, however, I am seeing some positives
crispy and cole Mon Mar 16 12:01:42 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: NAHB Housing Market Index Still Near Record Low
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CRbot Mon Mar 16 12:05:57 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
crispy and cole says:Today, 10:01:42 AM PDT
Rob - I think the recovery will be very weak and sluggish for sometime. I still think UE goes to 11%...
It think official reported U-3 will peak in the mid 11s. U-6 will look far worse. Heck, I want a new "not in U-6" category. I want more work but it isn't there. I haven't been in any aspect of the employment figures for 15 years or more. I am not alone.
however, just in calls I am making to other CFO's and CPA's of other companies in CA, things are slowly stabilizing...very slowly, but not getting worse. Maybe my sample size is not a true sample? Maybe my own company is not a good indicator? I am willing to question my own assumptions, however, I am seeing some positives.
Okay. Just remember the characteristics of these kinds of inflection events. There's froth and asymmetry and regionalism and such.
Bakersfield is also a fringeurb [new word]. So much of your "pain" decants to LA. You just get a hollow whistling sound left behind while the pain relocates. How much for that abandoned golf course? Get back to me when it has an honest owner and I'll entertain bottom formation.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 16 12:24:36 2009 CDT #
ObamaRamaDoo says:
The Obama Deception:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7886780711843120756&hl=en
ObamaRamaDoo Mon Mar 16 12:39:36 2009 CDT #
z says:
Can't we just herd the little people more efficiently?
z Mon Mar 16 12:45:29 2009 CDT #
peAk PLE says:
Phantom Limb Economy?
And thus memes are born.
And the acronym of the month: PLE.
peAk PLE Mon Mar 16 13:38:27 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
blackhat says:Today, 10:07:59 AM PDT
Phantom Limb Economy?
And thus memes are born.
And maybe the new acronym: PLE
peAk Mon Mar 16 13:42:38 2009 CDT #
dow30 summer weight says:
Give a company a single government bailout they will be able to give out 25% of their "contracted" bonuses.
Teach a company how to extort a government bailout(and "ease" previous bailouts) every quarter and they will be able to pay full bonuses each year.
dow30 summer weight Mon Mar 16 13:51:48 2009 CDT #
dUCKdUCKgOOSE says:
Boo Yah! Off the cliff baby!
dUCKdUCKgOOSE Mon Mar 16 14:00:50 2009 CDT #
END