Comments for "House Prices vs. PCE"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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CRbot Thu Mar 26 17:39:39 2009 CDT #
That Barton Fink Feeling says:
Price yourself out now or be bought forever.
That Barton Fink Feeling Thu Mar 26 17:47:11 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
I heard that OC house prices have bottomed. From 12-15 people this week. One is married to a realtor, so I value said opinion.
dr munch Thu Mar 26 17:47:16 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Don't forget that the population is growing about 1% per year.
Home prices are close to being a per capita item (if the number of people per household was a constant, it would be a per capita item). However, the personal consumption expenditures are an aggregate number, for a population expanding at 1% per year.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 17:47:59 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
ouch
and you have to clear the extra vacant housing built in the 1980s this time too
There's no shadow pool of capital that can compare to the credit bubble. Can't privatize Freddie Mac this time to raise funds either. No 1986 Tax Reform act to unleash financial securitization. Can't re-invent CMOs. Can't re-use the myth of infinite productivity from tech. Can't sell assets to Japan. Can't re-repeal Glass Steagall. Can't cut Fed Funds Rate. No easy step shifts left to spur on the credit bubble. Can't increase government spending enough
RIP Great Credit Bubble, I know I shan't
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 17:51:23 2009 CDT #
That Barton Fink Feeling says:
"Can't privatize Freddie Mac this time to raise funds either. No 1986 Tax Reform act to unleash financial securitization. Can't re-invest CMOs. Can't re-use the myth of infinite productivity from tech. Can't sell assets to Japan. Can't re-repeal Glass Steagall. Can't cut Fed Funds Rate. No easy step shifts left to spur on the credit bubble. Can't increase government spending enough"
Yes, Evil Hank, it's looking perilously close to the end of Something For Nothingomics.
We need a new hoax we can believe in!
That Barton Fink Feeling Thu Mar 26 17:55:16 2009 CDT #
jo6pac says:
That's just really mean of you, Oh do have the new name? A new game is about to start of name that hoax, thanks TBFF.
jo6pac
8-)
Parent Post
jo6pac Thu Mar 26 18:18:51 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
OC home prices have another 25% to go.
If you want some spare cash, bet each of those people $20 that the case shiller index will be lower for LA/OC in March 2010 than March 2009.
I like taking money from people who are full of crap.
Some Investor Guy Thu Mar 26 17:55:23 2009 CDT #
ATM card, $19 etc... says:
Maybe this is why I stay away from TA: I look at that chart and see the blue line heading straight past -10% before maybe turning back up. If that did happen, I wonder what the economy would look like...
ATM card, $19 etc... Thu Mar 26 17:56:38 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I suspect that YoY change in house prices can go up, yet house prices continue to decline.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 17:56:55 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
The YoY change in real house prices can go up, like it is doing in the chart, yet house prices can continue to decline. It may not be until YoY change goes positive that houses prices can be said to be increasing. Of course, that YoY change has changed direction may be good news, if the trend continues, but it simply means that the rate at which prices are falling has decreased.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 18:01:59 2009 CDT #
CashOnlyHousing says:
"adjusted using CPI less Shelter"
Why not adjust the PCE by population as suggested above and adjust neither by any price index. The statistics already have plenty of error built in, why increase that error by introducing the highly questionable CPI and whatever price index they use to adjust the PCE. The unadjusted data may rise over time but you get a more accurate relationship between housing prices and PCE-per-capita.
CashOnlyHousing Thu Mar 26 18:07:20 2009 CDT #
Sardonic says:
Reptilian you are right, the graph is a bit misleading because until that red line goes above 0 house prices are still going down.
Sardonic Thu Mar 26 18:09:07 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
From previous thread:
It is my understanding that FDIC doesn't handle them (bank holding companies), yet insures the deposits ???
The FDIC insures the deposits of the bank itself. The BHC is a holding company like Berkshire Hathaway, but needs to be regulated because capital flows between subs and affiliates can impair the viability of the depositi institution. Unfortunately for the FRB, it only handles the parent BHC (ignore state member banks), and not the subs/affiliates. Under GLBA, those institutions are regulated by their functional regulators (e.g. investment bank = SEC, etc).
Basel Too Thu Mar 26 18:11:48 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
It seems the President said that it may be better outsourced jobs don't come back because they are low paying [or something like that]. Is this true?
REBear Thu Mar 26 18:14:14 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Is this true?"
No. He is way to tactful to say such a thing. Had he been smart though, he would have said a natonal heathcare plan would make workers more comptitive globally and allow us to better compete for some of those jobs.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/03/obama-text-town.html
"
Now, a lot of the outsourcing that was referred to in the question really has to do with the fact that our economy -- if it's dependent on low-wage, low-skill labor, it's very hard to hang on to those jobs because there's always a country out there that pays lower wages than the U.S. And so we've got to go after the high-skill, high-wage jobs of the future. That's why it's so important to train our folks more effectively and that's why it's so important for us to find new industries -- building solar panels or wind turbines or the new biofuel -- that involve these higher-value, higher-skill, higher-paying jobs.
So I guess the answer to the question is, not all of these jobs are going to come back. And it probably wouldn't be good for our economy for a bunch of these jobs to come back because, frankly, there's no way that people could be getting paid a living wage on some of these jobs -- at least in order to be competitive in an international setting.
"
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 18:50:38 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Median Home prices are increasing because of a change in the mix.CR has covered this a number of times.SOME of the homes that were in the $800k-$1mm range are now selling in the $500-$700k range driving up the median price in a market that was almost entirely sub $417k.There is a house for sale in sebastopol (a "fortess" area")on 2.5 acres with an asking price of $314k.It is in awful condition,but this is half what it would have brought 3 years ago.There is another priced at $570k that would have brought $850k easily at the peak.this is the spring crop of knifecatchers.
Tom Stone Thu Mar 26 18:19:02 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"It seems the President said that it may be better outsourced jobs don't come back because they are low paying [or something like that]. Is this true?"
That is what I heard also. He is lost in another universe on this one. India, China and other countries have been hard at work on education. They will take the high paying ones as well!
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 18:19:39 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Is this true?"
No. He is way to tactful to say such a thing. Had he been smart though, he would have said a natonal heathcare plan would make workers more comptitive globally and allow us to better compete for some of those jobs.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/03/obama-text-town.html
"
Now, a lot of the outsourcing that was referred to in the question really has to do with the fact that our economy -- if it's dependent on low-wage, low-skill labor, it's very hard to hang on to those jobs because there's always a country out there that pays lower wages than the U.S. And so we've got to go after the high-skill, high-wage jobs of the future. That's why it's so important to train our folks more effectively and that's why it's so important for us to find new industries -- building solar panels or wind turbines or the new biofuel -- that involve these higher-value, higher-skill, higher-paying jobs.
So I guess the answer to the question is, not all of these jobs are going to come back. And it probably wouldn't be good for our economy for a bunch of these jobs to come back because, frankly, there's no way that people could be getting paid a living wage on some of these jobs -- at least in order to be competitive in an international setting.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 18:55:15 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
Check out these charts of the U.S. & Japanese housing bubbles. Predictions of a housing bust in the U.S. were ridiculed a mere two years ago.
http://www.realestatedecline.com/homepricehistory.htm
I have yet to hear a CONvincing argument as to why our housing decline won't be a severe as Japan's bust.
Angry Saver Thu Mar 26 18:25:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
EHP: Thank you for your great comments today morning. Another member of the EHP fan club.
RIP Great Credit Bubble
What about a China Credit bubble? Is that an option that will keep the world going for the next 30-40 years?
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 18:26:49 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"It seems the President said that it may be better outsourced jobs don't come back because they are low paying [or something like that]. Is this true?"
Tell that to former employees of dental labs (jobs in Pakistan); former software and electrical engineers (jobs in India and China). Did I leave out the radiologists? MDs? They, too, are being outsourced.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 18:28:56 2009 CDT #
nickbp says:
FYI, the OFHEO quarterly index goes back to 1975
http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi_download.aspx
nickbp Thu Mar 26 18:33:15 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Mix shift towards more expensive homes selling could also be responsible for the increase of Q/Q price declines. We've seen that prices on the higher end are stickier than those on the low end. As high inventories cause sellers to start lowering prices on these properties, I would expect it to actually have a positive initial impact on these rates. Eventually this trend could reverse, as the percent decline on these more expensive properties will IMHO be greater than on the low end as they converge towards conforming loan amounts.
Rates on jumbo loans will make the high end market anemic for a long, long time.
Gavshire Hathaway Thu Mar 26 18:36:43 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Outlier says:
Today, 5:08:16 PM
Thank you for offering the varied examples of the concept. I'm beginning to understand now.
Maybe? The key is strong ties and organization at a local level, with the inherent assumption that it will act as part of a context full of similar small actors. I wouldn’t slavishly reproduce any of the systems I mentioned, though some structures, like kommandos and kibbutz, are very mature. None of them are really designed to stand the test of time, however.
Well, erm... yes. If your vision is one of violence, chaos, tribalism, and ultimately societal deevolution, as a born and bred dope, I must concede the bias.
I would say I favor smallholding farmers or communal village mechanisms over semi-nomadic tribals or primitive agriculturalists.
I also don’t think Boers or Kibbutzim are savages. Likewise neither cenobitic nor anchorite monks.
The part where you could get shot over a goat, I don’t care about. You’ll surely have clanmates to avenge you and life will go on. It’s like the diffuse society version of the risk you’ll turn into a crackhead or get disabled early by a disease of civilization. Every social model is full of implicate risks.
Ask yourself, what do you bring to my answer in terms of anxieties and prejudices? How / who attached those anxieties and prejudices to these concepts? Devolution is a particularly poisonous concept, an oxgoad of nonspecific “progress” to keep the monkeys in line and on script. Don’t be like Those People, they are of Low Status, and actions associated with them are contaminated by that status.
Aware of said bias, though, I am open to the argument that this an epochal transformation: capitalism = FAIL.
Not capitalism. The buildup of goods and services isn’t the problem, iterative engineering is not the enemy of man. The problem is centralizing hierarchies and their inability to achieve smooth and reliable institutional renewal, and the ability of power elites in control of them to look out for themselves and see the actual people inhabiting the actual country as a cash cow at best, a noisy nuisance at worst.
People are calling for more stable systems with distributed architectures that aren’t as vulnerable to crashing. I am in general agreement that this is a good thing, although I am not really a strict proponent of it. EHP’s friends in the tropics and their leaky reef suggest part of the problem is that you forgo mastery of your context beyond a certain point and that’s just something that needs to be contemplated. People in little countries “just live with it” all the time -- maybe that’s something we need to learn, maybe that’s just something that needs to be taken into account.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 18:37:30 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
Requests??
Obligatory....
FREEEEBIIIRRDDD!
Darth Paulson Thu Mar 26 18:37:41 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"I have yet to hear a CONvincing argument as to why our housing decline won't be a severe as Japan's bust"
Because there isnt one, except hope. I think most could argue it may be worse.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 18:37:58 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
OT: The O-man enjoying a brew, here.
From this article.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 18:39:57 2009 CDT #
Darth Paulson says:
Our financial system is the equalivalent of combining Homer Simpson, a case of beer and an electric fence.
We all know what's coming, it's just a matter of time.
Darth Paulson Thu Mar 26 18:41:09 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I bet this will improve relations.
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Japanese government has decided to issue an order to shoot down a missile if fired by North Korea, public broadcaster NHK reported today.
nova Thu Mar 26 18:48:15 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
A quid-pro-quo agreement was struck, continued USTBond purchases in return for Eminent Domain option to exercise by China for property seizure, “to physically take, inside the USA, land, buildings, factories, perhaps even entire cities.”
Jim Willie
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0326.html
Guest Thu Mar 26 18:48:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Guest - I checked out your reference link, and my eyes began swimming. Could you please tell me whom it was that made such an agreement as you claim? A simple name will do. TIA.
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 19:48:19 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
20 min w/ Roubini on bloomberg. Pertty bearish...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/
bearly Thu Mar 26 18:48:47 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Guest says:
Today, 7:48:20 PM
“A quid-pro-quo agreement was struck, continued USTBond purchases in return for Eminent Domain option to exercise by China for property seizure, “to physically take, inside the USA, land, buildings, factories, perhaps even entire cities.”
Oh cool. Chinamen to shoot. That'll be fun.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 18:51:53 2009 CDT #
hong konger says:
EHP-
Are you saying we're going to have to ramp up some actual producitivity gains the old fashioned way. Bah!
Where has Misean been btw?
hong konger Thu Mar 26 18:56:21 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
There is only one thing that can stop this sort of thing.
Legalize Marijuana.
<h1>U.S. marshal's body found in Mexico</h1>
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/26/marshal.killed/index.html
Legalizing pot would end most of the influence of the drug cartels and stop most of the killings. Hopefully, as cold as it may sound, we need to have many more killings like this in order to drive it in to drive it into our politicians heads to do the right thing and end the War on Drugs. I look forward to more killings like this and even the fall of Mexico to the drug cartels. That is the price that must be paid for our current failed policy on illegal drugs. So be it.
Michael Thu Mar 26 18:56:26 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Legalize Marijuana."
I just don't think that would fix it. While Mary-Jane I am sure is a standard source of income for these guys, it is the opiates and meth, that represent the big bucks.
If TPTB had not allowed them to use someithg, sort of benighn as a launch pad, it might have remianed manageable. But I think it is a little late to close that barn door.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:01:43 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The Japanese government has decided to issue an order to shoot down a missile if fired by North Korea, public broadcaster NHK reported today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aNkthzRwoKd8
Cool
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 18:56:57 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"That's why it's so important to train our folks more effectively"
So how do you force people to accept education and peform in the job market? What do we do with the people who fit the light bulb factory level now? This view is way out of balance with reality. We have the most educated work force now in American history.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 19:00:32 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"We have the most educated work force now in American history."
I think we are good on MBAs, Derivitives Guru's and RE Agents. We probably want to start looking Civil Engineers, Code monkeys, and Nurse practioners. Cause no way, no how are Financtial services getting back to 30% GDP for a while.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:06:05 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
A quid-pro-quo agreement was struck, continued USTBond purchases in return for Eminent Domain option to exercise by China for property seizure, “to physically take, inside the USA, land, buildings, factories, perhaps even entire cities.”
Even your own source says this can't be confirmed. Youreally should check Snopes before posting tripe like this.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/domain.asp
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Thu Mar 26 19:00:39 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Ron Paul will be on CNN shortly talking about illegal drugs.
Michael Thu Mar 26 19:03:02 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Yeah, I think that even heroin should be legalized. I am not sure about meth and PCP, because their users can really get crazy and violent.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 19:04:37 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Yeah, I think that even heroin should be legalized." <br><br>
I have a very hard time going that far with the addictive substances. But I do think that enforcement should stop dicking around with the domestic stuff and focus 99 or 100% on interdiction.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:17:17 2009 CDT #
km4 says:
Simon Johnson: The Triumph of the Banking Oligarchs
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/03/simon_johnson_t.html
Provocative piece from Simon Johnson in the current The Atlantic magazine on the “triumph” of the U.S. banking oligarchs. Worth reading in its length entirety.
Let’s see if Obama admim can ‘walk their recent talk’ and swing the regulation pendulum back.
If not, he’s a one termer.
km4 Thu Mar 26 19:06:32 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
What if the Chinese have a lien on the dope??!
That's doom you can believe in.
C
Counterpointer Thu Mar 26 19:06:40 2009 CDT #
tunis says:
Tom Stone
R U in the RE biz in Sonoma county? I am interested in getting a low down on th reality of that market.
tunis Thu Mar 26 19:07:02 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
As long as jobs keep going away, PCE will keep declining. 600K new unemployment claims per month every month for another years? What would that mean to PCE?
http://www.talesfromthecoast.blogspot.com
Bob Dobbs Thu Mar 26 19:07:52 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Meth is a self-created problem. They baned the sale of actual clean, pharmaceutical uppers. Now they have people making it out of driveway cleaner. Is the answer put cheap, clean speed back on the market, or spend coutless dollars and years running around enacting a Tom and Jerry skit while people poison themselves with adulterated drugs. Oh I know, let's do the one that makes lots of jobs for the prison industry and creates more convicted felons, that's very smart.
Who cares if some number of people would kill themselves with legal speed, how many people kill themselves with meth now?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 19:09:14 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Drug dealing is a common alternative in a poor economy where jobs are scarce. Smoking pot is more than half of all the illegal drug consumption. Make it legal and most of the problems go away, period.
Parent Post
Michael Thu Mar 26 19:16:44 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Unfortunately, the people killed with 'legal' speed aren't always just the users. Truck drivers were taking out busfulls of nuns.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Thu Mar 26 20:00:28 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Where to the light bulb factory people fit in?
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 19:11:36 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
Technical Ananlysis question:
I am not a big Technical Analysis user, I do use it to flesh out macro ideas, but I was wondering this;
If T/A can be good at stock indices and individual stocks does it apply to things like unemployment, GDP, and MEW? I mean if a pennant MUST resolve to the downside in unemployment and the level to go to is silly, like 20% (maybe not so silly!) does that not invalidate it? Or are comples things like Unemplyment not able to have T/A applied? I have no idea so please offer any ideas.
GYSC Thu Mar 26 19:12:11 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Where to the light bulb factory people fit in?
They'll be trained into the worker of the future, someone who makes Excel sheets about lightbulbs.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 19:13:06 2009 CDT #
Big Hitter, tha Lama says:
Just make drugs legal in ONE state. That way I'll know where I can find the sane people.
It would be a smooth transition for CA.
Big Hitter, tha Lama Thu Mar 26 19:13:58 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
CA would be a crazy place to start due to the large population. IA, ND or ID would be better IMHO. A little drug tourism maybe.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:19:25 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
If cocaine were legalized, it would be attractive to the meth users. Meth is basically poor man's cocaine. Then it would only be necessary to lock up the PCP dealers, and users if they become violent. Violence would decline in Mexico. Gov't could collect drug taxes. Crime associated with the illegality of drugs would disappear. Gov't would spend less incarcerating people.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 19:14:21 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
- refined cocaine is crazy making. Let's have the leaf itself to chew, like the campisinos in S.A.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Thu Mar 26 20:09:38 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Anonymous @4:26 pst
No, there is not enough untapped capital in China for it to generate a bubble large enough even to offset the decline of its exports and foreign direct investment, let alone support global end demand. At the present time of course.
As the credit bubble unwinds it's force decreases, and as such it takes a smaller pool of capital to overcome it. We of course have the credit unwind on the one hand, and on the other we are now accumulating savings. Printing money does not replace the credit bubble, it is just a different way of allocating losses -- that's the part Bernanke doesn't understand, he assumes credit creates demand where I believe credit links income with demand across time. Important to note that credit allows for the illusion of selling at one price, but then through default being paid less than expected.
hong konger,
Don't get me wrong. There have been great strides in making capital for nimble and available. It's worked so well that we now have to cope with going from overproduction to underproduction because the future needs for so many goods & services have already been met.
The place where the credit innovation failed was properly estimating risk probability and severity. That is not the fault of math, but of greedy individuals who sought to hide their assumptions in the construction of the formulae. Maybe I'm wrong on that point and there are those who honestly believed idiots. Who knows
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 19:15:15 2009 CDT #
Topher says:
Angry Saver
Check out these charts of the U.S. & Japanese housing bubbles. Predictions of a housing bust in the U.S. were ridiculed a mere two years ago.
http://www.realestatedecline.com/homepricehistory.htm
I have yet to hear a CONvincing argument as to why our housing decline won't be a severe as Japan's bust.
TY for the link.
Topher Thu Mar 26 19:15:17 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
ThatBartonFinkFeeling at 6:47;
"Price yourself out Now or be Bought Forever"
That line had me laughing for 5 minutes straight! Awesome.
GYSC Thu Mar 26 19:15:55 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Meth labs are still pretty decentralied as some amateur landlords will find out.It is really special to find out that your "Income Property" is now HAZMAT and that the entire structure will have to be removed by men in Moonsuits,the sewer lines dug up and BTW your tenants contaminated the WHOLE sewer system and you will be paying to remediate it.and if you want dangerous drugs,just go pick up a prescription for Xanax or Ambien from a friendly pill pusher,they are not hard to find if you bathe regularly and drive a respectable looking car.
Tom Stone Thu Mar 26 19:16:35 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
Circuit breaker day by tax time. Just guessing.
dr munch Thu Mar 26 19:16:50 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Blackhalo,
The Treasury and Federal Reserve are full of nurses, we need someone brave who's ready to operate now
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 19:18:24 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The Treasury and Federal Reserve are full of nurses, we need someone brave who's ready to operate now"
Well clearly THEY need executioners and mortitans. Or whatever you do to put down zombies. Head shots?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:38:48 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"They'll be trained into the worker of the future, someone who makes Excel sheets about lightbulbs."
Again, how do you force peole to learn and perform in the work place? Seems a bit to much hope instead of reality. Continueing on the wrong path paves the way for the world to finish taking away what little we have left. We need a balance of industires as we can not resume the money flipping on the level that just collasped.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 19:19:23 2009 CDT #
notional billionaire says:
Again, how do you force people to learn and perform in the work place?
- quit babying the s#!t out of them.
Parent Post
notional billionaire Thu Mar 26 20:15:59 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Technical Ananlysis question: "
Technical analysis is bunk. It works unless it doesn't.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 19:19:37 2009 CDT #
Topher says:
ATM
“Maybe this is why I stay away from TA: I look at that chart and see the blue line heading straight past -10% before maybe turning back up. If that did happen, I wonder what the economy would look like...
My thoughts exactly!
Topher Thu Mar 26 19:20:14 2009 CDT #
Judge Smales says:
Abolishing laws and regulations sure did wonders for the financial sector....I'm sure it would do the same for illegal narcotics use.
Judge Smales Thu Mar 26 19:21:05 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I'm sure it would do the same for illegal narcotics use."
Regulaton and Taxation would have to be a core component of any legalization. And if leagalized, there would be NO illegal use, yes?
The problem with the finacial issue is that Elections run on money, and these guys have access to unlimited quantities. I do not know how you fix that without a constitutional cap on campaign spending.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:26:23 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Counterpointer,
Earlier the idea of institutional ownership entered into my head. Later stumbled across a chart in the appendix of a journal article, http://img359.imageshack.us/img359/6902/picture1xqr.png
You have any thoughts?
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 19:22:39 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
If Pot is legal there will be no tax money made. The grow your own will become the source and the Moonshiner game will become the new Cops and Robbers game.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 19:22:55 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The grow your own will become the source and the Moonshiner game will become the new Cops and Robbers game."
So does Tobbacco, but that is big time money for the stats. Don't get me wrong out of state ciggies is a big deal but what you get at the 7-11 is by and large, taxed.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 19:36:46 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Went to drinks with a bunch of RM guys tonight, and the usual competitive scaring the hell out of each other happened, on equities, China trade, Nikki, bailouts, intergenerational transfer, emploment, CRE, A2P2, credit risk and LLP metholodogies, ratings downgrades etc.
I then started my bond spiel, citing UK, Germany, Austria, Asian corporates rollover risk, long bond distortions etc. In the space of five minutes flat everyone had moved from beer to gin.
NB past results are no predictor of future performance.
C
Counterpointer Thu Mar 26 19:25:02 2009 CDT #
CashOnlyHousing says:
"Abolishing laws and regulations sure did wonders for the financial sector"
It wasn't lack of laws or regulations as many claim.
It was the combination of fiat currency, lack of prosecution of common sense laws(fraud), and the death of wisdom that was gained from previous monetary debacles.
There's too many intellectuals on here to argue that drug laws are a good thing for our society.
CashOnlyHousing Thu Mar 26 19:26:30 2009 CDT #
dopey says:
- you say 'intellectuals' like it was a bad thing- and regulating marijuana, like alcohol, would indeed solve a host of problems. But, personally speaking, that's where I would draw the line, unless it would be to legalize cocaine in leaf form, and perhaps mescaline. Peyote is cool, too, but nasty to taste. And 'shrooms. I'd have 'shrooms. Hell, just about anything, as long as it's not refined or manufactured.
Parent Post
dopey Thu Mar 26 20:33:17 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"Abolishing laws and regulations sure did wonders for the financial sector....I'm sure it would do the same for illegal narcotics use."
But there is a difference between greed/stupidity and crime. If drugs were legalized, they would no longer be illegal.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 19:27:35 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: SouthPark: Bailout!
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/southpark-bailout.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
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It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
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--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
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CRbot Thu Mar 26 19:28:24 2009 CDT #
ren says:
Re jobs not coming back...
Doesn't that depend on the value of the dollar going forward, and the relative distribution of wealth worldwide? In 1849, California outsourced laundry to China because local labor costs were so high. Five years later, not so much.
I am no expert, but Ive been hanging out at this blog and compulsively studying the housing/ credit/ derivitives markets, because this event looks like a game changer to me.
ren Thu Mar 26 19:28:51 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Abolishing laws and regulations sure did wonders for the financial sector....I'm sure it would do the same for illegal narcotics use.
As opposed to the highly successful war on drugs we fight today. That's right, warn me of the surety of failure if I pick an alternative to your market-leading failure.
How odd that everyone whose fat pension and promotion prospects rests on continuing the prison industry ponzi has such strong views on this subject.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 19:29:28 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
Here in Taxachusetts anything less than an ounce of pot is legal.
Anyway, let us get back to economic talk. Any takers on my T/A question? Any chartists her?
GYSC Thu Mar 26 19:30:18 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I enjoy seeing all the chaos and killing on both sides of the drug war. I enjoy watching 100's of billions of tax payer money going down the drain jailing people for using pot. I enjoy seeing money thrown away on something as useless as enforcing nonsensical drug laws where the wasted money could be spent on more productive activities such as education or building roads.
I love Divine Retribution.
Michael Thu Mar 26 19:33:46 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
NZD you little bastard, back in the box, I want 49c to the dollar by Easter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apbmtPZ0sKS4&refer=home
C
Counterpointer Thu Mar 26 19:34:24 2009 CDT #
CashOnlyHousing says:
"I have a very hard time going that far with the addictive substances." (regarding heroin)
Casual users are more likely to become habitual users of cigarettes, alcohol, or marijuana than they are herion. Even the withdrawal symptoms are highly overrated, which I've both read and heard from previous addicts. Doesn't mean it isn't hard to quit though, but so are many worse legal addictions(alcoholism).
Never done herion or meth myself.
If only a select few drugs were illegal, such as pcp, meth and a few others(aspartame...), their cost would rise and usage would plumment as dealers/retailers could offer a nice selection while staying legal.
CashOnlyHousing Thu Mar 26 19:35:32 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
I think TA mostly works because everyone knows about it and the strategems shape the market.
I would be very careful apply principles if there was money at stake, until I knew exactly WHY that was happening, lest you discover something that works until it doesn't. If you're not betting money, go crazy.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 19:35:57 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Imagine a throng of Chinese businessmen and bankers dressed in Western suits attending foreclosure auctions holding property titles in their hands!!!"
....this is why I asked the question a couple days ago: Can MBS's be "unwound"? Keep in mind Nixon made agreement with China 30-years ago that he wouldn't assist Taiwan if China were to invade - this was TOTALLY UNKNOWN by our citizenry and just recently made public. This is also why I said a couple days ago: "Your new neighbors will be the Chinese next-door and across the street". Watch - it's already been decided.
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 19:46:04 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
.....and, have any of you had a Chinese person as a landlord? Now THAT'S an experience!
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 19:47:58 2009 CDT #
END