Comments for "U.S. Hotel Occupancy Rate at 58.5%"
Nemo says:
Trucking tonnage up + hotel occupancy down means...
Um. People being moved like cattle?
Nemo Thu Mar 26 11:30:04 2009 CDT #
Spunkmeyer says:
It would be interesting to see if hotel chains start to offer more long-term rental policies -- wouldn't it be better to have foreclosed families in their rooms than no occupancy?
Spunkmeyer Thu Mar 26 11:32:18 2009 CDT #
NoVa Sideliner says:
Discounts for foreclosed families? I work for a hotel company. After seeing what condition the hotels were in after Katrina refugees cleared out, it might be more appropriate to have a HIGHER rate for long term stays like that. Families living full time in a hotel can put an unbelievable amount of wear and tear on a place. A few months discount rent ==> total room rebuild.
Parent Post
NoVa Sideliner Thu Mar 26 12:26:40 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
working?
citiprank Thu Mar 26 11:32:57 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
test
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 11:33:16 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
CR, JS-Kt is puking again.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 11:33:47 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
It doesn't matter because the rebound has come. All the doom data, not gonna change a thing. Get with the times folks!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Thu Mar 26 11:34:21 2009 CDT #
r0m30 says:
HOPE prevents 1, yes one, forclosure: http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/25/real_estate/new_hope_plan/index.htm
r0m30 Thu Mar 26 11:34:54 2009 CDT #
JGU says:
Will the plan work?
JGU Thu Mar 26 11:35:47 2009 CDT #
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Short the maids?
That\'s Ballgame, Goat Herders Thu Mar 26 11:36:31 2009 CDT #
/dev/cpu says:
BUT, I am not getting hotel rooms for any lesser rate than before.
/dev/cpu Thu Mar 26 11:37:57 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Hotels...empty, Shops closing..., Stocks... rising
Cleary what Treasury/FED want to do is to but the black boxes that are banks into a large balck box bury with Hoffas body in the Lost City of Atlantis in the middle of the bermuda triangle
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 11:39:40 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
People are using Semi-Trucks as RV's only explaination.
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 11:41:02 2009 CDT #
crispy & cole says:
Comments need a bailout or takeover by the fed
crispy & cole Thu Mar 26 11:41:37 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
Hotels...empty, Shops closing..., Stocks... rising
The all-knowing market sees all! In its great wisdom, it forsees the plains of ponies!
Fair Economist Thu Mar 26 11:42:52 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The all-knowing market sees all! In its great wisdom, it forsees the plains of ponies!"
Conventional wisdom is that the market leads the economy by ~ 6mos. No way does the economy turn around that fast until the former iBanks are BK. New lows on the horizon.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:02:02 2009 CDT #
PTDBD says:
Geithner still hasn't read China's SDR proposal. They guy is obviously underpaid and overworked, or totally out to lunch.
China's leaders seem very patient. First they get another country to hint. Then they suggest. At the G20 they will propose. Later they will demand. Finally, they will command. I think I can predict America's reaction at each of these stages.
PTDBD Thu Mar 26 11:43:32 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Keep in mind that the RevPAR declines this week BENEFITTED from a calendar shift of the Easter holiday (which was early in 2008)
When Easter rolls around in a few weeks, this will reverse, and the RevPAR growth will likely look very very bad...
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 11:43:51 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Repost from previous dead thread that was chewed on by JS kit for awhile and probably never got read.
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/3/25/sen_sanders_blocking_vote_to_confirm
Sanders is pointing to GEnslers being a proponent of deregulation and his ties to GS. GS is getting more and more notice on the blogosphere and none of the exposure is good...
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 11:43:52 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"GS is getting more and more notice"
If only it had been a concern at TARP I time.
It would be interesting if blogs had the ear of TPTB, in the same way as say, CNBC. One hopes that the public is becoming wary of Cramer.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 11:48:45 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Is this the bottom???
citiprank Thu Mar 26 11:44:28 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Is this the bottom???
I think we are at the top and while I expect that we will be here maybe by the end of the year or next we have to reach new lows... IMO. So NO
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 11:46:25 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Are hotels part of the CRE, CR?
CR has been right all along about his claim that CRE was not as overbuilt as the RRE.
Jas
Jas Thu Mar 26 11:46:59 2009 CDT #
Mel says:
Do they have a measurement for hotels/motels open more than one year?
Mel Thu Mar 26 11:47:22 2009 CDT #
ac says:
CR, JS-Kt is puking again.
Maybe if people said more nice things about it JS-Kit wouldn't be so resentful and combatative?
ac Thu Mar 26 11:49:54 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Ha Blackhalo, Cramer is another Goldie...go figure.
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 11:50:10 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Tent city + U.S. Hotel Occupancy Rate at 58.5%=?
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 11:50:28 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Among the Top 25 Markets, Washington, D.C., was the only market to increase in the key performance measurements: occupancy was up 1.7 percent to 69.0 percent
Eliot Spitzer and ilk? How is Eliot Spizter not in prison?
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 11:51:06 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Eliot Spitzer and ilk? How is Eliot Spizter not in prison?"
For what? Playing hide the sausage with an escort? Pretty hard to even get arrested for that unless you are gonna make the news. The fine is probably less that the service fee.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 11:55:57 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'How is Eliot Spizter not in prison?'
Because we tend to jail only streetwalkers and possibly their lower class customers, by we basically never jail high end 'escorts' nor the rich white men that buy their services - and that has been true for decades.
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 11:56:36 2009 CDT #
rich says:
Spitzer is not in prison because he cut a deal to rat out every hooker he knows.
Johns are not to blame. Hookers are.
Parent Post
rich Thu Mar 26 13:18:32 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
why are we looking at a first-derivative chart? i think a chart of occupancy would be far more useful. (mabye in conjunction with the 1st derivative chart presented)
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 11:51:21 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Possible double bottom forming?
reptillian Thu Mar 26 11:52:13 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
short sheets?
Comrade Elmer Fudd Thu Mar 26 11:52:29 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
A lot of people don't like the threaded comments like Soapblox and Ajax. But - they work, even under heavy load and IMO that's a really important feature. This JS-Kit is a disaster and Haloscan wasn't much better.
Fair Economist Thu Mar 26 11:52:56 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
I think we have added too much capcity over the last 8 years especially in the Bay area Anyone have any info on that?
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 11:53:22 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Tim.. that was snark :)
Eliot spitzer is a god damn hero.. .we should put him at DoJ in chrage of investigating wall street
citiprank Thu Mar 26 11:53:46 2009 CDT #
NoVa Sideliner says:
Eliot Spitzer is an extortionist and a thug. (And he doesn't even treat his paid girls right.)
Parent Post
NoVa Sideliner Thu Mar 26 12:29:28 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins, JS-Kit puking seems to be the normal state. I've talked with them about reliability being priority #1 (followed by performance).
Oh well ... maybe ac is right. We should just say nice things about poor JS-kit. They've bought almost all their competitors, so we don't want to upset them.
best to all.
Calculated Risk Thu Mar 26 11:54:51 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
CR, does that mean JS kit is too big to fail? =-O
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 11:55:41 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"CR, does that mean JS kit is too big to fail?"
Google might have something to say about that. Perhaps that is JS Kits future?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:03:17 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Hey, what happened to my other comment. Is JS-Kit eating comments again?
best wishes.
Calculated Risk Thu Mar 26 11:57:29 2009 CDT #
Spatch says:
<i> Hey, what happened to my other comment. Is JS-Kit eating comments again?
best wishes. </i>
"All comments are delayed 15 minutes"
This is after all a financial/stock market blog ... right? :-D
Parent Post
Spatch Thu Mar 26 12:28:28 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Comrade Kristina, If they do fail, they'll take about 1 million sites down with them. I suppose others are looking for alternatives too.
On the hotel numbers, this data is noisy (hence the 3 week average), but this week wasn't as bad as the last few - partly because the comparison was easier.
best to all.
Calculated Risk Thu Mar 26 11:59:10 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Bac America preferreds are getting hit again today. Hey Ken Lewis when did you say you were going to give back that TARP money again?
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 12:02:45 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Joining 'js-kit sux' tribe. >:o
scone Thu Mar 26 12:03:05 2009 CDT #
cd says:
stated income info I mentd yesterday...
http://viplender.com/statedincome.html?gclid=CMqhydL4wJkCFRwpawod_SHWtg
cd Thu Mar 26 12:03:30 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Because we tend to jail only streetwalkers and possibly their lower class customers, by we basically never jail high end 'escorts' nor the rich white men that buy their services - and that has been true for decades.
Well, at least we got something right.
nova Thu Mar 26 12:04:10 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
BlackHalo
The I-banks pratically were last September. The commercial banks are the ones that are in trouble as the real economy crumbles.
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 12:04:27 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The I-banks pratically were last September."
Nah, they just changed their names to BoA and C, and GS is still out there. Lehman is the only one that resolved.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:09:38 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
I sent a complaint email to Altos Ventures, a VC firm that owns part of JS-Kit(info@altosventures.com).
Kung Fu Panda Thu Mar 26 12:05:03 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
"The all-knowing market sees all !!"
Yeah, immediately after I give up hope that it's going to follow my projection and take my bets off, the market does exactly what I projected. suks.
popeye Thu Mar 26 12:07:02 2009 CDT #
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGxBTsmuRIk says:
Achtung!!
3-month Treasury crashing (again) and here we go with September (again) with yields headed to zero:
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds
:-D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGxBTsmuRIk Thu Mar 26 12:08:14 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Is QE working?
Wasn't the Fed supposed to be buying 10 years today?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:15:49 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'Well, at least we got something right.'
Well no, not really - Amsterdam makes a pretty profit by not jailing anyone for such, but instead collecting a certain amount of taxes, which in turn isn't wasted by jailing anyone associated with the world's oldest profession. The same applies to the Dutch 'coffee shop' business, which is likely to prove much more repression (a combination or 'recesession' and 'depression'?) resistant than Starbucks.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:08:30 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Starbucks."
I'll take a half-caf double latte, and a Mowie Wowie, to go...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:14:04 2009 CDT #
Have a Great Depression! says:
from stocktock
FAZ=financial armaggedon zone
FAS=financial armaggedon stick-saved :)
Have a Great Depression! Thu Mar 26 12:08:39 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
Conventional wisdom is that the market leads the economy by ~ 6mos. No way does the economy turn around that fast until the former iBanks are BK. New lows on the horizon.
My earlier snark aside, it's certainly possible that the aggressive stimulatory policies the government is pursuing could produce a temporary recovery. It happened several times during Japan's lost decade. The problems won't be fixed until the consequence of the bad loans are dealt with, as you say, but we can have periods of growth in the meantime.
Fair Economist Thu Mar 26 12:09:28 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
CR, does that mean JS kit is too big to fail?
Obviously not, since it fails all the time. >:o
Fair Economist Thu Mar 26 12:10:53 2009 CDT #
mark says:
What caused markets to spike up - did I miss some news?
mark Thu Mar 26 12:13:14 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[Is this the bottom??? ]
Sure, if you believe heaping all the losses and risk on the Fed/Treasury, along with all its other unfunded burdens. A sharp spike in treasury yields and auction fail is on the horizon. Just a matter of time. The bottom in such a case is not even in any of the market risk models, buysiders don't even consider it.
Could go broke shorting the market ahead of this event tho...
bearly Thu Mar 26 12:14:21 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Could go broke shorting the market ahead of this event tho..."
The market can remain irrational longer that you can remain solvent?
I guess the Bazooka was not quite yet, empty. I wish you good fortune in timing the Bond crash. It just has to happen.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:35:35 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
OMG, on topic.
http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2009/03/aloha-no-moah.html
We talkied about this last week with respect to Hawaii. Interesting observations.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 12:15:05 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
From the last thread:
So what is the solution? How do we determine (systematically) that a bubble is occurring. It is people like yourself, CR, who actually identified it at the time who know best how you did so. Can you introspect and produce a set of criteria that you used? Could the same be done for other prominent, rigorous academics who noted the bubble ahead of time? Can this be distilled into a set of criteria?
It's about institutional and intellectual compromise among the decisionmaking cohort, not about the contours of the bubble.
What Mark presents as alternatives are not -- at least not in terms of a centrally planned state. That will tend to the same moribund decisionmaking characteristics, it will just develop policy cliques who turn into elites (nomenklatura) rather than capitalists who turn into policy cliques.
The answer is to escape the context of centralized, hierarchic systems and their ailments. Good luck doing that while the legions of the half-wise gabble for socialism as this was somehow caused by "laissez faire".
As long as you have a system that serves a centralized indexing function for interests, crafting policy that favors one interest over the other in an attempt to govern to the general welfare, the game is on to get a choice slot in the institition making the decisions, and the clock is ticking until the administrative system gets to well-developed that it loses its flexibility and responsive steerage. Period. Could be elite technocrats (MITI), party apparatchiks (gosplan) or capitalist cronies barely there long enough to warm a chair (US financial system).
If there are n+1 hogs, and a trough that can provide n hogs with resources in diminishing quality based on position, then there will be n hogs in strict pecking order and +1 hungry animal watching the spectacle. As long as you keep building linear hog troughs that fill from one end (i.e., a hierarchic structure) you will keep getting this result.
You can play educational system or moralizing games but ultimately, these policies are an attempt to force your judgement on the future, when you will be dead and people will have other things on their mind. The best you can hope for is an inflexible and moribund orthopraxy.
No number of stern lectures from the grave can really change the fact that you picked a kind of hog trough that concretely rewards the most the hog who cheats the most, and that hog is best positioned to win the next fight for resources.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 12:15:31 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Amsterdam felt much safer to me than almost any US city I have visited... and both weed and hookers are legal there... but guns aren't
Funny how that works
citiprank Thu Mar 26 12:15:54 2009 CDT #
cd says:
mark,
treasury auction pump..?
cd Thu Mar 26 12:15:57 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
Depressionistas are running scared now...LOL!
Things are improving again this month, the first Q is going to be very nice
crispy and cole Thu Mar 26 12:16:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
China is a nation of savers, supposedly the largest group of savers on Earth. This mindset is inherent in the Chinese PTB as well. What if China is pulling a page from the TEOTWAWKI crowd and is simply hunkering down with their reserves and commodity buying?
Historically China has been an isolationist country prone to to be attacked by outsiders. The Chinese will sit back and let this storm pass while they maintain and build within their border. I'm starting to believe that China might very well be the last man standing and reap the rewards, just like the US after WWII. Maybe that was their plan all along.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:16:34 2009 CDT #
nova says:
jeebus, getting and feeding the head. all you need when you're young, just got paid, and dumb
nova Thu Mar 26 12:16:51 2009 CDT #
Alex says:
I wrote an oped on the financial crisis for my local paper and am hoping some of the experts here can look through it and see if my terminology and argument are correct. You can read it and leave comments at
http://alaskaninaction.blogspot.com/
Here is the first paragraph-
"Many people are staring at their retirement statements in shocked disbelief and wondering how we got into this mess. The answer is a complex and sordid tale of financial innovation, deregulation, greed, and excessive use of acronyms. Starting in the late 1990's, rampant deregulation and cheap credit created the unusual situation in which selling a $500,000 house to an unemployed crack addict could be hugely profitable. Who could have known that would end badly?"
Alex Thu Mar 26 12:18:42 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Alex -- You have to go back to 1980 if you want to track back to the wave of deregulation
Private MBS took off, same with ABS, the losses from the S&L crisis were never fully processed but instead obscured by the 'productivity' bubble
Add in the tax cuts with a massive increase in government spending, a relatively unencumbered consumer thanks to the inflation of the 1970s, cheap energy, and an excess of capital after South America was crippled from the high interest rates Volcker set
1980 was year zero for this bubble
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 12:23:50 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
furthermore I feel I need to add that there would have been a housing bubble of massive proportions with or without subprime. That's not just an opinion, you have your pick of countless countries that had a huge housing bubble without an equivalent of subprime or alt-a
It makes sense though, I mean how many unemployed crack addict homeowners were there? For a bubble this large you need a lot of people, borrowing a large amount of money, with relatively low overhead -- the housing bubble had all 3 of those to create a self-sustaining force.
(when I said the losses of the S&L crisis were never fully processed, one example is housing unit vacancy rate... never declined since the 1980s, which means the subsequent bubbles prevented full loss recognition until now)
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 12:27:56 2009 CDT #
cd says:
gm and ge helping the dow today....
nova, all of us are dopes or so I heard...
amsterdam govt.. at least thinks instead of react....
cd Thu Mar 26 12:22:35 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
Actually, if Elliot Spitzer meets a an 'escort' at a hotel, it doesn't bother me.
But if hookers are working my sidewalk and johns are cruising up and down my street, I want them all thrown in jail.
Funny how that works.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Thu Mar 26 12:22:47 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
CBR certainly has a handle on reality.
People at the end of the SU were desperate for leadership, because the system had ceased to function. What they got was gangsters, who were as gangsters always are, only for themselves. Now Russia has re-formed into a new dispensation with old, confortable features.
Pavel Thu Mar 26 12:24:05 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Alex, that about covers it nicely, good job.
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 12:24:27 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
No more taxpayer funded corporate junkets = bad for hotel business
Mannwich Thu Mar 26 12:24:35 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
Where are my comments going?
Mannwich Thu Mar 26 12:25:17 2009 CDT #
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGxBTsmuRIk says:
The yield on U.S. 1-month Treasury bills briefly slipped
below zero on Thursday, as investors looked for places to park
cash near quarter-end.
One-month T-bills, considered a cash equivalent,
yielded minus 0.015 percent in early trading, down from
Wednesday's close of plus 0.046 percent, TradeWeb said.
The one-month bill yield last turned negative in
mid-December ahead of year-end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGxBTsmuRIk Thu Mar 26 12:28:36 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Thanks EHP, great info as usual.
Comrade Kristina Thu Mar 26 12:29:38 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
@ citiprank
My 'Funny how that works' was not directed at your 'Funny how that works'.
Just an odd coincidence.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Thu Mar 26 12:29:58 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
In case if you missed this one sometimes ago.
Bill Moyers dialog with Simon Johnson, It makes me sick, listen to 10:50 minute time mark.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02132009/watch.html
WAWAWA Thu Mar 26 12:30:22 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Seems CR has instituted the uptick rule. No negative comments are allowed until there is a positive post.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 12:32:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Both Federal Reserve officials and investors failed to see the global economic crisis coming, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00483320090326
Not this investor old stupid one. The same FED fools that didn't see it coming are only going to make what they think is wrong worse trying to fix it.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:33:22 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
There is a lesson for government here.
http://theexpiredmeter.com/?p=2377
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:34:48 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Both Federal Reserve officials and investors failed to see the global economic crisis coming, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Thursday.
No bus driver is better than a blind bus driver.
That said, I don't think Greenspan was blind, just criminally self-serving.
ac Thu Mar 26 12:34:51 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
<i>
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Today, 9:27:56 PM
<tbody>
“furthermore I feel I need to add that there would have been a housing bubble of massive proportions with or without subprime. That's not just an opinion, you have your pick of countless countries that had a huge housing bubble without an equivalent of subprime or alt-a
</tbody>
</i>
I would suspect you would find a lot of easy credit and lax lending, even if not technically subprime or alt a lending.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Thu Mar 26 12:34:57 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Bubblisimo Gerkinov
Lax lending is not necessary for housing bubble, although lax lending is more likely to show up at the end of a bubble (trying to keep the ball rolling, chasing the last few pennies)
The reason why housing bubbles are powerful:
- Low risk premium; bank has house as collateral, in normal markets/most of history prices do not fall
- Big pool of credit to tap; drawn from future income of every household (110mn in America) people amortized over a long period of time (up to 30 - 40 years!)
- Long lifetime of credit; this allows the amount of credit:equity ratio remain high. It means prices can substantially appreciate because ... well, no one has or will ever pay those amounts, but excessive credit will give the illusion
do a mental exercise where you start off with $1mn in the bank, lend 95% of it to person A, person A spends 95% of $1mn on goods&services from person B, person B deposits it at the bank, bank lends 95% of 95% of $1mn to person C, etc... this does not have to be a linear chain, in practice it is a web, but the effect is the same. If you were to keep that chain going, you would max out at creating $20mn of notional wealth.
BUT the instant one person in the chain cannot repay their loan, the credit unwinds and you go from $20mn of wealth to $1mn.
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 13:04:00 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
(continued, very stupid 3kb limit)
So now you see the importance of
• reaching a broad section of the population (everyone needs some kind of housing, in the end 70% of American households became homeowners or ~77mn). if it did not affect most people, one link of that lending chain would break the cycle of reinvesting in housing (say by by buying a flight to Bora Bora on a private charter that spends the money in Mongolia)
• the low overhead. If banks had to hold 10% of those deposits instead of 5%, there would have been only $10mn of notional wealth. Securitization was important in the sense that it allowed banks to relend a higher proportion of the money. Unfortunately their actions altered the market whereby assuming a lower risk, allowed greater access to money, which lowered the chance of default as even a monkey could refinance/tap home equity
• the long lifetime of credit. The long lifetime of credit plays 2 roles. It minimizes how much the homeowner has to contribute to the purchase price in the near term, effectively delaying calling their bluff whether or not they can afford the home. The second is that it gives the credit chain time to extend. If the credit chain were broken after just a few transactions, there wouldn't be the chance to keep the snowball rolling/growing.
It's why there has never been an asset bubble recorded in history from payday loans (narrow section of population, high overhead, short lifetime)
The biggest endorsement of my thinking is that Greenspan called it ludicrous, but is now begrudgingly admitting that yes Virginia... there is something called a rational damaging credit bubble in the free market
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 13:04:31 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Market Musings
Even if the FED is successful at reinflating the housing bubble (they won't) that will still be hundreds of billions of dollars (public and private) in wasted capital chasing bad assests. This money would have been better off used in cancer reasearch, education, health care modernization, or infrastructure. Instead we will be paying this debt off with interest for decades to come on stagnant or depreciating assests.
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 12:36:16 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
I propose we all take a look at our own History for a change. It could be that we have seen various booms and busts and all matter of malarkey and shenanigans in the past along with the various political and economic proposals, promises and other assorted horseshit-that may or may not have been actually applied or may have been exploited in various ways......The constant diversion to foreign entities with their own histories of various behaviors (current behaviors also included). The constant bandying about of terms "free market" and "protectionism" and "mercantilism" like that is some foreign thing that does not happen right here in this society....all in the ever loving name of "politics"- oops , sorry
Magical Thinking Thu Mar 26 12:39:24 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Someone hitting all the erogenous zones of the market
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 12:39:26 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Someone hitting all the erogenous zones of the market "
I need to take some off the table here I think. But the greed in me is making it very hard to do.
How long can CNBC and the Fed pump this before reality sets in? Wishful thinking is a powerful force...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 12:51:27 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Alex,
If you want an introduction into the American mortgage market you need to read
http://sunhomedesign.wordpress.com/2008/07/
Deregulation and tax relief would come in the form of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and soon after, private MBS trading would explode with Saloman Brothers dominating the market. The financial instrument Ranieri created would eventually funnel trillions of dollars into the housing market with some extraordinary unintended consequences.
For some slightly more wonkish summaries from google,
MBS Market Concepts and Topics MBS Basics
How Resilient Are MBS to CDO Market Disruptions?
The first 2 are by the same guy, first one with more colourful pictures. The 3rd one will bring home the point out the importance of CDOs to processing the vast amounts of MBS
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 12:40:10 2009 CDT #
Alex says:
EHP, Thanks for the feedback and links.
Parent Post
Alex Thu Mar 26 13:04:35 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"Even if the FED is successful at reinflating the housing bubble (they won't) that will still be hundreds of billions of dollars (public and private) in wasted capital chasing bad assests. This money would have been better off used in cancer reasearch, education, health care modernization, or infrastructure. Instead we will be paying this debt off with interest for decades to come on stagnant or depreciating assests."
30% of the country think all those things are "socialism" or "communism".. there's your first problem.. although interestingly enough they think supporting 100s of billions in construction projects in Iraq is being a "patriotic american"..
citiprank Thu Mar 26 12:40:14 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Concentration of common sense bordering on genius.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4475310/101-things-to-do-til-the-revolution-claire-wolfe
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:46:02 2009 CDT #
js-kitten says:
meow
js-kitten Thu Mar 26 12:47:13 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
New RailFAX is up, out thru the 21st:
http://railfax.transmatch.com/#TotCharts
Unexpected uptick in 4wk intermodal.
Overall, looks like we remain on the post Credit Panic plateau, where the economy moves in it's accustomed patterns, but is about 15-20% smaller depending on how you measure it. Maybe we are starting to see a slight recovery in trade if CR's figures show a port traffic uptick, but there is so much compressed demand / supply along the pipeline it's going to take a while before I call any trends. The Baltic Dry is still running around 2000 so dry shippng is surely not on a rocket ship to recovery.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 12:48:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
@Gav - dude , where are you ? I miss your take on this whole thing.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:49:41 2009 CDT #
abprosper says:
Hmmph. Economic forcasting these days is like reading tea leaves. No point in guessing anything though I'd suggest anytime you'd say "down in the long run" mor than not ypu'll be right
abprosper Thu Mar 26 12:50:09 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
<h1>Meredith Whitney: Credit Crunch & Financials</h1>
Reality Check
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1063364117&play=1
Tim waiting for 2012 Thu Mar 26 12:54:01 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Meredith Whitney"
Smart, talented, sense of humor AND hot? How does that happen?
"Meredith Whitney (born 1970) manages her own firm, Meredith Whitney LLC, and works in New York, where she analyzes the stocks of financial institutions."
AND she is her own boss?
"She has been married to WWE professional wrestler John "Bradshaw" Layfield since February 13, 2005."
Lucky fucker.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 13:02:51 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Blackhalo,
Envy has an acrid taste, and trailing stops are easy to use.
popeye Thu Mar 26 12:55:09 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Thank you Popeye. I had started like two windy responses to that and you covered it in one sentence.
Parent Post
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 12:59:17 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"trailing stops are easy to use."
Yeah, I'll have to look in to that. A little too day traderish for my buy and hold nature. But locking in gains is good sense.
"Envy has an acrid taste"
Meh, human nature. I envy a lot of people for the talent and skills they posess, that I do not have the knack or interest for. It does not mean I don't respect it.
"Never shop starting with looks."
Hah! I don't think I could pull that off.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 13:22:02 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Michael, Here is the possible downside to your temporary cessation of sunspot activity.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?full=true
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 12:58:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission obtained an emergency court order to halt a $68 million Ponzi scheme involving the sale of fictitious high-yield certificates of deposit by Caribbean-based Millennium Bank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ao0u.bOuusU0
Get those bastards!
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 13:00:12 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
American International Group Inc. will be subpoenaed today by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo for its credit-default swap contracts, according to a person familiar with the investigation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=alET1YYjVjTM
Uh-Oh
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 13:01:30 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Uh-Oh"
Yeah, that would be a rally buzz kill. Right guy to do it too as NY is the reg for insurers and should be able to get the talent on hand to evaluate the steaming pile of derivitave.
I can't think Timmy is just yet ready for this transparecy.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 13:08:02 2009 CDT #
julieng says:
gimmie Haloscan back !
julieng Thu Mar 26 13:04:06 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Lucky fucker.
Bring something to the table yourself. The fish is not too big to land, the fisherman is not able enough to land it.
Never settle for something you don't like.
Never shop starting with looks. You can use looks as a secondary selection, we all have tastes, but beauty was cheap even before you could by it. It is much harder to find someone who is entertaining.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 13:08:05 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Byz, Pavel and Anon-so you are saying there maybe a difference in eastern/western thought? Foolish crusaders....
Magical Thinking Thu Mar 26 13:10:30 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Magical Thinking,
Well for one the "east" is west of me, and the "west" is east
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 13:12:36 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
Enjoy Emma Jordan in Bill Moyers program (video)
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/12122008/watch2.html
WAWAWA Thu Mar 26 13:12:24 2009 CDT #
cd says:
byz ruins.
unless you like the taste of mangoes...toss the entertaining stuff out the door when thier a beautiful tasty mango nearby....
cd Thu Mar 26 13:12:37 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Official member of EHP fan club. Engaging mouse ears in 3..2..1..
scone Thu Mar 26 13:14:15 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
"Eliot Spitzer and ilk? How is Eliot Spizter not in prison?"
---
funny how that works...blow the whistle on AIG and write an op ed piece in the NYT about how mortgages are being passed out like free samples at costco
and the next thing ya know "they" (homeland security??) gotcha on a list of johns hanging out with the emporesses
heres my question...spitzers name hit the press as "john #9" lickety split (pun intended)
any connection?
and who were "johns" number 1-8??? you dont pay a several thousand dollars for an evening of sex unless you got big bucks and the power to go with it
guess none of the other jphns were investigating derrivatives or loan scandals
so what were the names of all the other bankers, politicians, and high rollers who were paying to smooch with those sweeties
guess justice and public disclosure didnt matter much in the other cases
this is what anybody who takes on the banking interests has waiting for them so you better be squeeky clean
ps "why aint he in prison??? you gotta be kidding,.. prison for buying sex? are you for real?
mock turtle Thu Mar 26 13:14:51 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Bobcat walks into Ariz. bar, attacks patrons
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090326/ap_on_re_us/bobcat_attacks_1
anybody here from allen c lately...
what a bunch of wimps..shooting the dang thing...wheres animal control..
cd Thu Mar 26 13:16:52 2009 CDT #
Just Askin says:
Oh well, guess I won't be doing any renovation work anytime soon....
OT, should have been in last post, but OMFG, Carlyle Group included in the new TBTF list....guess Eisenhower had it right.....
Just Askin Thu Mar 26 13:17:06 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
That's some cliff diving on hotel occupany.
Sort of looks like an uber-bear's portfolio value over the past few weeks.
This rally has some legs too.
Guest Thu Mar 26 13:17:54 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Guest,
-12% RpaR YoY is not cliff diving all things considered. Hotels have also cut costs, and there are more hotel rooms than 1 year ago. They're managing quiet well so far if I may say so without prognosticating on their future
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 13:20:11 2009 CDT #
Outlier says:
Byz Ruins:
"The answer is to escape the context of centralized, hierarchic systems and their ailments."
For those of us lacking your extensive knowledge of other historical cultures and dynasties, please help me understand, where and when in modernity has such a system existed?
Outlier Thu Mar 26 13:18:03 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
JS-Kit contact:
Khris Loux, CEO JS-Kit
khris@js-kit.com
Fire away...
Kung Fu Panda Thu Mar 26 13:18:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Lawmakers called for a federal probe into whether banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. received more funds than necessary from the bailout of American International Group Inc.
“We would like to know if the AIG counterparty payments, as made, were in the best interests of the taxpayers,” said 27 members of Congress led by Elijah Cummings, a Democrat from Maryland, in a letter to Neil Barofsky, inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The banks got about $50 billion in payments tied to credit-default swaps.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=apNLNBaYgE7M
Get those MoFo's!
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 13:28:10 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"We would like to know if the AIG counterparty payments, as made, were in the best interests of the taxpayers"
That seems kind of kooky. Timmy is running that show, yes?
Now, if this is trust, but verify, then, hell yes, get those fuckers.
Of more interest to me is incarceration of the previous regimes at AIG and GS.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 13:34:15 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Again.. spitzer is a god damn hero.. one of the only people to stand up to these fucks.. I could care less who he wants to pay to bang in his spare time.
We should put him at DoJ.. yesterday
citiprank Thu Mar 26 13:36:08 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Blackhalo,
Trailing stop references - should you develope an interest:
http://www.tradingstationsupport.com/user-guide/trading-functionality/trailing-stops/
http://ezinearticles.com/?Advanced-Trailing-Stop-Order-Tactics-to-Tame-the-Markets&id=2078147
popeye Thu Mar 26 13:37:11 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The U.S. Federal Reserve refused to identify trading partners benefiting from a $180-billion taxpayer bailout of American International Group (AIG.N) as one lawmaker said Europe's financial stability was at stake in the rescue of the insurer."
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52446B20090306
Calling Cuomo...
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 13:41:52 2009 CDT #
cd says:
spitzer should have just hopped on a jet to reno and took a cabbie to the bunny ranch...I dated a girl who worked at mustang ranch (didn't know it until the end of relationship, never put sacramento being so close to reno together) and she told me almost all the DA's in northern nevada made monthly or weekly appearances there and she had one as client for 2 years...
the kicker is I didnt pay for it :-$
cd Thu Mar 26 13:43:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"spitzer should have just hopped on a jet to reno and took a cabbie to the bunny ranch"
That probably would not be as descrete as he would have lieked. I don't think he has quite as open a marrage, as say, Clinton.
"We should put him at DoJ.. yesterday" -Citi
Who is the AG? Why have I not heard jack from justice? We have ~8 years of chasing pot-heads, porn producers and "election fraud." Should they not be busy getting down to, I don't know, JUSTICE by now? Seems like there might have some fiscal malfeasance going on, somewhere.
OK, Madoff is a good start, but he is kind of minor league.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 13:52:15 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Any scoop on Qtr-end hedgie & MF redemptions ?
bearly Thu Mar 26 13:44:27 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
Conventional wisdom is that the market leads the economy by ~ 6mos.
If that were ever true, it wasn't recently. Say like last Sept when the markets were doing swimmingly just before SHTF (v1).
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Thu Mar 26 13:45:22 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Well EHP, maybe you have the perfect process to reinsert "serfdom" into the DNA code-bred out of me I'm afraid...........
Magical Thinking Thu Mar 26 13:48:05 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
rich
no doubt spitzer knew many many members of congress
thats a whole lotta prostitutes right there
mock turtle Thu Mar 26 13:49:46 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
why are we looking at a first-derivative chart? i think a chart of occupancy would be far more useful. (mabye in conjunction with the 1st derivative chart presented)
I often think the same. It can be confusing looking at the 1st derivative.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Thu Mar 26 13:50:11 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
js-kit is effin with me this morning and i dont even have to pay for it...free love
mock turtle Thu Mar 26 13:51:10 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
I'm not sure the market has that much to do with the economy at all anymore... in the same way vegas doesn't :)
citiprank Thu Mar 26 13:54:23 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Will we get a peek @ Elmo ?
bearly Thu Mar 26 13:54:33 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
<i>Again.. spitzer is a god damn hero.. one of the only people to stand up to these fucks.. I could care less who he wants to pay to bang in his spare time.
We should put him at DoJ.. yesterday</i>
He got the easy out. They could have killed him. Instead, they let him hang himself, and he got the message loud and clear....and cleared out.
Morocco Bama Thu Mar 26 13:54:34 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
A lot of people don't like the threaded comments like Soapblox and Ajax.
I don't object to threads per se - it's the JS-Kit implementation where they get buried in an otherwise chronological stream that makes me crazy(er). Any decent web based forum with threading would be better. (Hint to CR: There are plenty out there.) JS-Kit is just uniquely sucky.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Thu Mar 26 13:54:42 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Magical Thinking
Serfdom? What are you talking about?
EvilHenryPaulson Thu Mar 26 13:55:35 2009 CDT #
Teddy says:
Obama needs to stop turfing with Cheney and invite him to his weekly Wednesday night, bipartisan, Kobe steak dinners at $100 a plate. He'll need him when the American taxpayers decide to cut costs like IBM announced today. The 700 billion that China bought in fannie and freddie subprime which was not guaranteed by the government at the time and which Paulson, Greenspan, Bernanke, and Gross last summer said the taxpayers needed to guarantee immediately needs to be cancelled retroactively. And who better to go to China and tell them that debt don't matter and that we need to cut costs anyhow than Cheney. Furthermore, to cherry pick, to take things out of context, and quote Ritholtz from maybe a year ago, "f*ck China".
Teddy Thu Mar 26 13:56:36 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Teddy, you say "obama turfing with cheney? and here i thought it was the other way around, cant remember a prez or v prez attacking or criticizing incomming admin in the first 100 days...ever
mock turtle
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 14:05:04 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
I thought it was afternoon.
Morocco Bama Thu Mar 26 13:56:56 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
It's a hell of a Bear Market Rally going on. My calculations put it at approximately 20%. Start shorting right about now.
Morocco Bama Thu Mar 26 13:59:52 2009 CDT #
fried says:
Again, NYC not immune...
"Facing a steep drop in revenue, The New York Times Company plans to cut the pay of most employees by 5 percent for nine months, in return for 10 days’ leave, and will lay off 100 people and make other budget cuts, executives said on Thursday.
The company will make the pay cuts unilaterally for most nonunion employees, including top executives, in its corporate division"
fried Thu Mar 26 14:00:19 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
<tbody>
"It's a hell of a Bear Market Rally going on. My calculations put it at approximately 20%. Start shorting right about now."
November 1929 - April 1930: +48%
June 1930 - September 1930: +12%
December 1930 - February 1931: +21%
May 1931 - June 1931: +27%
October 1932 - November 1931: +35%
July 1932 - September 1932: +72%
</tbody>
popeye Thu Mar 26 14:02:59 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Stock Buybacks vs Performance
CRbot Thu Mar 26 14:03:03 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — Agilent Technologies Inc. said Thursday it will lay off 2,700 workers and halt share buybacks as the scientific-instrument maker struggles with a huge drop in demand.
The company expects revenue in its electronic-measurement segment to drop 30 percent in fiscal 2009 — the lowest level in its 10-year history.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 14:05:02 2009 CDT #
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:
furthermore I feel I need to add that there would have been a housing bubble of massive proportions with or without subprime.
Hate to argue with EHP, but how do you get a housing bubble this big without the funny money loans? If house purchase is contrained to some reasonable multiple of household income (say 3x), which normal financing and underwriting tends to do, how does a bubble this big form?
I think the other countries had the funny money loans - look at Northern Rock.
Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Thu Mar 26 14:05:09 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"If house purchase is contrained to some reasonable multiple of household income (say 3x)"
The arguement that I heard with regard to Europe, was that it was direct forign investment in property that caused that bubble. Saying that locals do not own property in downtown London, but that UAE residents do. So instead Londoners bought in Spain and the Spaniards in the Czech Republic, etc. Not leveraging per se but a nice chain reaction.
Of course, until we get a look at AIG's books and counterparties, who know?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 14:11:33 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: More Retail Space Coming
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/more-retail-space-coming.html ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Thu Mar 26 14:08:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Heres some of Timmys new rules...the IRS will be lowering penalties on wealthy Americans with offshore accounts if they come forward now...once again, we are all equal here, but some of us are more equal than others.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/business/27tax.html?hp
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 14:08:18 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Serfdom? I was referring to what Byzantine Ruins was saying-I think it's the right view on current enviroment.
Magical Thinking Thu Mar 26 14:09:28 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
For those of us lacking your extensive knowledge of other historical cultures and dynasties, please help me understand, where and when in modernity has such a system existed?
Well, you are going to have to invent much of it! Life is nothing without challenges.
The salafist zerg is a good start for sure. They beat the USA in a war. Hamas is a good example too, they are very good at holding on to their mission and their structure despite constant loss. On the other side of the fence, you could look at the kibbutzim, and the Boer kommando system. The Boers are especially good as they were habitual Republic-founders so that's a good thing to copy.
You could look at the Vietnamese sapper communities planted along the Chinese border.
I would look at the Icelandic Free State and Norse culture in general, as they had strong senses of the individual and of life according to legal codes. Early but definitely well-organized and successful.
This community here is a good start, as are many server / forum communities. The open source community and hacker culture in general is a good start too.
You could look at Plain Folk and similar deliberately agrarian societies. Or monastic communities of faith.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 14:11:15 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
I think you definitely want pervasive militancy and violence, because it lets you escape the need for the whole bureaucracy of structured force to serve the state's ends. If it seems poorly suited for policy adventures, well, America's standing army hasn't exactly done it any great services since WW2, or really ever.
You better learn to learn, though. You will see 900 shortcomings in these suggestions and be like "this sucks, my morally, economically and militarily bankrupt culture is way better, 'cause my biases tell me so" and that will be the last of your chances to escape your context.
New social forms will be shocking, raw, incomplete, require adaptation. That is why they will have potential. What we have now, smoothly goes around and around on its track. Right down the toilet. It's a very polished motion. Reinvention is what's needed, and not a little. Crybaby society and its pack of elected looters, err, leaders are very able failures. Virtually anything involving them as theyare today will fail quite swiftly.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 14:11:16 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
I sure am wishing NAZ would but through 1580. A little Kermit/PPT action in the final strech?
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 14:14:28 2009 CDT #
peAk says:
"How long can CNBC and the Fed pump this before reality sets in? Wishful thinking is a powerful force..."
My tinfoil market timer says the trillions being committed will prompt enough buying and trader support to close the Oct. NAZ gap at 1950, up an amazing 24% more, which will then still be a lower high in a downtrending bear market.
peAk Thu Mar 26 14:21:12 2009 CDT #
That Barton Fink Feeling says:
Plenty of empty rooms at the Hotal Earle.
"A Day Or A Lifetime."
That Barton Fink Feeling Thu Mar 26 17:59:07 2009 CDT #
END