Comments for "Employment: Comparing Recessions and Diffusion Index"
CRbot says:
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CRbot Fri Apr 3 08:39:12 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Ok, back to gloomitis
nova Fri Apr 3 08:42:10 2009 CDT #
Interesting Times says:
CR I love that first graph. It's as informative as the 4 bad bears.
Although, weren't the definitions of employment different in 1948 and 1958?
Interesting Times Fri Apr 3 08:44:15 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Wow, Byz was on a real tear prev thread.
It would appear job losses are accelerating. Where does that end up?
C
Counterpointer Fri Apr 3 08:44:44 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
A garph of the spagetti monster god guy!!!
We worship his noodley self!!!
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:46:09 2009 CDT #
franko says:
AWESOME context from that graph, esp for a canadian who doesn't get much local usa news coverage (well, i don't watch local news in Toronto for that matter)
franko Fri Apr 3 08:46:55 2009 CDT #
The Lorax says:
Hmmm how about all the people that U6 doesn't count, like my wife. Company has reduced pay 10% and require 10% more hours worked ( so same take-home, but more hours worked ).
I know a lot of people in the same boat who don't even qualify for U6 recognition.
The Lorax Fri Apr 3 08:50:02 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Well, she's got a job, doesn't she?
What happens if they do this again. And again?
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:55:03 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
That graph is damn scary. It looks like we're on a highway to hell and the brakes just gave out.
TCA Fri Apr 3 08:55:44 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
I think CR is trying to deflect criticism by posting so making so many posts that we don't have time to keep up, much less comment.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:56:18 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
I predict one of CR's future graphs will look like this:
----------- Level of Subsistence
x Where you are
Outsider Fri Apr 3 08:58:17 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
That first chart is a scary one. You look at the current line and due to UE and lag, the RED LINE is going to be a rip snorter! It hasn't started bending horizontal yet. It'll be the biggest and deepest hole on that chart!
Black Star Ranch Fri Apr 3 08:59:23 2009 CDT #
Pump-n-dump says:
Area under the curve FTL.
Parent Post
Pump-n-dump Fri Apr 3 09:04:42 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
It's raining monkeys!
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Apr 3 09:01:12 2009 CDT #
guest says:
I predict one of CR's future graphs will look like this:
----------- Level of Subsistence
x Where you are
======
LMAO
guest Fri Apr 3 09:04:07 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
My garden groweth nicely.
Are the monkeys bouncing?
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:04:27 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
This diffusion thingy is a bit like a CDO - overly complicated. I'm just a simple BBAD. That said, I don't need a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing.
The short term trends are ugly. So are the long term trends.
Angry Saver Fri Apr 3 09:05:53 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
So, what is the range used to determine that an industry has no change? Is 1% gain or loss no change?
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Apr 3 09:06:21 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Yes, looks like we're hitting every branch on the way down, Liz.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Apr 3 09:07:05 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
The first graph is very interesting. A couple of observations: 1) The '81, '90, '01 lines all take considerably longer to turn positive, and 2) The slope of the current recession is most similar to the post-war recessions-especially 1958. This is very ominous indeed, if the rapidity of the job loss would be similar to 1958 and the time to recover as long as the 2001 recession.... that would be catastrophic.
Doc at the Radar Station Fri Apr 3 09:07:53 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Wow, how ironic is this -- Ban gay marriage, end up with gay marriage: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abFI6nVwnavQ&refer=home
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Apr 3 09:08:53 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
Wow, how ironic is this -- Ban gay marriage, end up with gay marriage:
I seem to recall some old saying about being careful with what you wish for. Yes, yes, I know it's probably so incredibly obscure that only a few people have heard of it.
Parent Post
Chicago Dude Fri Apr 3 09:21:52 2009 CDT #
wally says:
Perhaps some fundamental change is emerging. This is the first real jobs recession of the computer era.
wally Fri Apr 3 09:09:31 2009 CDT #
Pump-n-dump says:
But did you guys catch the season finale of ER last night? NPR's Marketplace certainly did, and felt it was important enough to blab about it.
Pump-n-dump Fri Apr 3 09:09:51 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Pump, I'll be honest, I didn't know that ER was even still on television.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Apr 3 09:10:56 2009 CDT #
Pump-n-dump says:
Yea me either until Ms. Jablonski did a segment on it just after the jobs report.
Parent Post
Pump-n-dump Fri Apr 3 09:11:58 2009 CDT #
afterdavid says:
I remember when the market used to rally when we were adding 150k a month.
Now it rallies if we LOSE only 500k a month.
yep. makes perfect sense.
::whistles on::
afterdavid Fri Apr 3 09:11:59 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
How many bank failures for the day?
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:13:41 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
agree wally. Been a long time too since we've seen losses as steep as the massive job losses associated with manufactoring back in the 40s and 50s. Pretty wild swings. I do think the 2001 unrecovery recovery will nicely match the steep drop and that post-analysis, if we're that luck to have post-analysis, will not that this condition was obvious, except to anyone who's opinion mattered.
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 09:14:15 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
We need a publication of the FDIC index of number of employees. When the unemployment of FDIC turns up, then we can say the meltdown & recession is ended.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:15:23 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
Asshat Award: John Dugan
CRbot Fri Apr 3 09:15:54 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
What is ER? That is supposed to be entertainment or educational.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Apr 3 09:18:03 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Another CROCUS ?
[A sobering ISM non-manufacturing report marks a step back for the economic outlook. The ISM's composite index fell back nearly 1 point to 40.8 with a nearly 2 point loss in new orders to a 38.8 reading that points to slowing business conditions ahead. The employment index also fell, down 5 points to 32.3 in a reminder of this morning's 663,000 drop in March payrolls. Prices also point to deepening contraction, at 39.1 for a 9 point swing downward. Stocks moved lower in immediate reaction to today's report which cuts short those who had been hoping for quick improvement in the economy]
bearly Fri Apr 3 09:18:31 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Ok, heads the market goes up; tails it goes down. Alright ..... that's enough time wasted on research.
popeye Fri Apr 3 09:18:35 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Lawyerliz,
Just look for RIFs. They'll probably do the same thing they did the last time. Read Government Executive and I'm sure they'll run a story about some successful GS-15 getting ready to wind-down FDIC staff how it's challenging but rewarding...
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 09:19:42 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
March ISM Nonmsnufacturing in at 40.8, below expectations at 42...
energyecon Fri Apr 3 09:19:43 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Well, popeye, how did the coin land? Are we up or down?
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:20:02 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
No reductions in force at FDIC for quite a while!!
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:21:02 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Doc,
Count on it.
energyecon Fri Apr 3 09:21:21 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Liz,
Yes.
popeye Fri Apr 3 09:21:41 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Or did it land on the side and is rolling around?
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:21:47 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
hahahahah, popeye.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:23:25 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
popeye does COINZ! Hoocoodanode!?
Dow's looking a bit parabolic. Futures elmo. Hmm. Guess it's not looking good?
C
Counterpointer Fri Apr 3 09:24:01 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
I don't think it's time to short yet. I still think it'll go to 9k before really cliff diving again. Not everyone is back in yet ;)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Fri Apr 3 09:50:26 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2t62x0yDW84&refer=home
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Mortgages modified in the third quarter failed at a faster pace than those revised in the first, and the delinquency rate on the least risky loans doubled, signs of deteriorating credit quality, U.S. regulators said
/end snip
blackhat Fri Apr 3 09:24:39 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Why are 1980 and 1981 shown separately?
Guest Fri Apr 3 09:25:07 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
2 different recessions-
Parent Post
Cinco-X Fri Apr 3 09:50:49 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
But but...Obama exported HOPE to G20 and they all had jolly good time there! They are also going to NAME and SHAME ("you naughty China!") and write an angry letter or even two to those tax havens!
Mean Flurry Kitten Fri Apr 3 09:25:18 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Let me repeat that to myself: and the delinquency rate on the least risky loans doubled.
o.k., i made it 10:30, time for bourbon.
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 09:26:09 2009 CDT #
demonbankers says:
cnbc says orders in february rose so its ok
demonbankers Fri Apr 3 09:28:05 2009 CDT #
shill says:
Time for a much needed laugh!
http://patdollard.com/2008/10/it-is-here-the-banned-snl-skit-cannot-hide-from-louie/
shill Fri Apr 3 09:29:03 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Best I can do is daytrade this market when there's clear direction - like yesterday - and to just stay out when the market is wallowing around - like today.
popeye Fri Apr 3 09:30:43 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wow, how ironic is this -- Ban gay marriage, end up with gay marriage.
Luckily, they're Americans. Rather than learning a lesson, they'll just be crybabies and change the charter.
Can't let a little something like a charter mandating equality to all ruin the simple prejudices that drive countless queers into the life of self-destructive behavior that people want to condemn. Imagine, if they were normal members of society, and not self-loathing psychic wrecks, who would Ted Haggard have to rail against? What's self-righteous American moralism without hideous life-destroying vices to go hand in hand with it?
You can't have the stock narrative of immorality and redemption if you just, like, treat your fellow man like your equal.
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 09:31:32 2009 CDT #
The Lorax says:
blackhat, yes that is disturbing and must, logically, end in raising of prime mortgage rates ( which will quell any benefits from driving down the 30 year bond ).
Market meet calvinball, calvinball meet market.
The Lorax Fri Apr 3 09:31:53 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
blackhat,
Let's see, rising equities with deteriorating credit fundamentals...it seems like we have seen this movie before, how did it end again?
energyecon Fri Apr 3 09:31:58 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
http://www.jrdeputyaccountant.com/2009/04/cbo-shhh-tarp-is-little-more-expensive.html
Guest Fri Apr 3 09:32:10 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I wonder whether job stimulus efforts might be more effective if they were targeted at the diffusion index's components, except for the FIRE jobs, which Obama had grown unsustainably in recent years.
reptillian Fri Apr 3 09:32:32 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I hate js-kit.
now I can't even log-in.
No, Liz, that Anon post this AM was me and not Misean. He just wears off on me after awhile.
I'm officially into CRCize now.
Later folks, actually have work to do...
- homedad43
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 09:32:53 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Are you still logged in on another computer?
Parent Post
Cinco-X Fri Apr 3 10:01:42 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Since my forecst was 925 for job losses, and the num is much less, I think we are on the road to recovery. WoHo
Barley Fri Apr 3 09:34:23 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I wrote: " ... which Obama had grown unsustainably in recent years."
Haha. Meant to write: which Obaba said had grown unsustainable in recent years.
Big difference.
reptillian Fri Apr 3 09:37:08 2009 CDT #
stilettoheels says:
If nonfarm payroll job losses average 276000 for the next 9 months, there will have been no net jobs created this decade. That's a scary stat.
stilettoheels Fri Apr 3 09:37:42 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Yeah, well, if you owe $230k and nearby houses are going for 130k, you don't have a whole lot of motivation.
A heavy equipment operator, my newest foreclosure, kept making his payments until his hours got cut to half time and he couldn't any more. We're hoping for cram down legislation to pass. I was thinking suppose he won even a smallish lottery prize--would I advise him to come current or not? I think the answer is, actually no. He is very sentimental about the house.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:38:47 2009 CDT #
S says:
is there any recourse in fl for home equity and or mortgage.
Parent Post
S Fri Apr 3 09:40:41 2009 CDT #
Lifeguard1999 says:
Mortgages modified in the third quarter failed at a faster pace than those revised in the first, and the delinquency rate on the least risky loans doubled, signs of deteriorating credit quality, U.S. regulators said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2t62x0yDW84&refer=home
Lifeguard1999 Fri Apr 3 09:41:09 2009 CDT #
bsneath says:
You are a master of chartology. Excellent representation of job losses relative to prior recessions.
bsneath Fri Apr 3 09:44:34 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
test?
Cinco-X Fri Apr 3 09:45:28 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Recourse--here we go again.
Yes, deficiency judgments are allowed, even mandatory under Florida law.
They are asked for and granted routinely in car loan litigation. They are virtually never asked for in the case of house foreclosures. Never. Never.
Either recently or in the last 30 years. To the point that even conservative worry wart me wouldn't worry about that if I were in such a situation. I can't imagine a judge nowadays granting one either. I mean the debtor comes in and says, you appraised it sucker, you granted me the loan. You granted a 100% loan and yow were supposed to know what you were doing. Judges are elected here you know. Whether this reasoning is good or bad I just don't see it happening. And then if it were granted, the debtor would merely file bankruptcy and get rid of it anyway.
And nobody has any money to suck in anyway. Well, hardly anybody.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:47:38 2009 CDT #
MaryAnn says:
Last man standing with job, Shelia, counting how many banks she and dufus can control.
MaryAnn Fri Apr 3 09:48:32 2009 CDT #
Carneades says:
We have defined a new industry and provided it with a moniker: Big Subsidy
www.TheValueatRisk.blogspot.com
Carneades Fri Apr 3 09:48:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
Great... but disturbing article in Atlantic Magazine on the power of America's Banking Oligarchs and the control they have in Washington. This power and money and the access and control that it has bought makes it difficult if not impossible for this Financial crisis to be truely solved in a timely and forcefull manner.
Written by Simon Johnson former Cheif Economist at the IMF.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
Anonymoustoo Fri Apr 3 09:50:21 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Simon Johnson was interviewed on NPR and he was great.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 09:55:21 2009 CDT #
DJMayer says:
Interesting historical perspective and clearly it is not quite clear when this bottoms out. We may very well only be at a clearing in the woods and not entirely out of the woods, only time will tell. One positive to the painful human reality of rising unemployment is that it allows an economy to more rapidly deal with inefficiencies. In short, any boom will drive too much labor towards some end of the economy (in this case housing/finance) and this is something that needs to be corrected in the subsequent bust; And the faster the better.
One interesting and not often mentioned issue related to the Japan comparison is that in the early 1990s unemployment was kept articifially low during many years, which only served to prolong their road to recovery.
DJMayer Fri Apr 3 09:55:32 2009 CDT #
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CRbot Fri Apr 3 09:59:38 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
So when are GS and MS going to have another secondary offering to utilize the latest share price runup to recapitalize? That's gotta be in the works....
Gavshire Hathaway Fri Apr 3 09:59:53 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
We set up about an acre here for a "community garden project" (built greenhouse for winter, buried water lines, put up short fencing, etc.). I think it might actually also turn out to be a grampa & grandma day-care. You'd be surprised how knowledgeable some of them old gals are. Now all I gotta do is talk them into a little housework.
Black Star Ranch Fri Apr 3 09:59:54 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Isn't the word diffusion and antonym for the word contained?
Br\'er Dawg Fri Apr 3 10:00:30 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wow, Byz was on a real tear prev thread.
It would appear job losses are accelerating. Where does that end up?
As blackhat said:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2t62x0yDW84&refer=home
Prime mortgages that were delinquent after 60 days more than doubled in the fourth quarter, to 2.4 percent from 1.1 percent in the first, and rose significantly from the third quarter to the fourth, the report showed. Prime mortgages, considered the least likely to fail, account for two-thirds of all mortgages.
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 10:04:11 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Thread prolly dead, but isn't this like 5 times what it was in good times?
I have a client in default who put 30% down at peak. He's underwater. They won't bargain with him. If this wasn't prime, I don't know what is.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 10:09:07 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
[The government plan does not allow banks to buy their own assets]
Now that's difficult to game. Just buy each others asset. Or are banker just ethically bound to do the right thing in the eyes of the naive treasury and administration.
The banks will work against the interests of the country until it's bankrupt. JUST CLOSE THE FUCKERS DOWN NOW!
bearly Fri Apr 3 10:17:56 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
"disturbing article in Atlantic Magazine on the power of America's Banking Oligarchs and the control they have in Washington. "
United Banks of America?
Outsider Fri Apr 3 10:28:57 2009 CDT #
John S says:
This is very ominous indeed, if the rapidity of the job loss would be similar to 1958 and the time to recover as long as the 2001 recession.... that would be catastrophic.
Once Congress manages to force through carbon "cap and trade," my guess is we're looking at a big "L". We take out the 1948 drop and employment never regains 2007 levels.
John S Fri Apr 3 11:17:03 2009 CDT #
halbhh says:
The odd and striking "slow" start to what is a very powerful recession was due to the summer 2008 tax rebate, as is immediately evident from comparing this recession to typical recessions. The tax rebates were anticipated and then hit about 6 months in.
It's a "balance sheet recession", all about consumers being over-indebted. Tax cuts help reduce consumer debt faster, so tax cuts, like spending, won't cause a recovery, but tax cuts will bring the recovery timeframe closer by improving consumer balance sheets.
This could be done in a more clever and effective way.
http://findingourdream.blogspot.com/2009/01/how-obamas-middle-class-tax-cut-will.html
http://findingourdream.blogspot.com/2009/01/tax-rebates-worked-better-than.html
It is possible after all to do something effective about the economy.
halbhh Fri Apr 3 12:05:16 2009 CDT #
GS Rome says:
I'd rather balance the budget with a carbon tax than to balance it by taxing unemployment benefits and student stipends, like Reagan did. My $700/mo at U of IL got hammered in the 80's while the wealthiest walked away smiling. At least the free market could decide the best fuel alternative. Even if you think its a misallocation of capital, it beats building McMansions in the exurbs.
GS Rome Fri Apr 3 12:29:37 2009 CDT #
NewCreature says:
The first graph is great, but as someone said, the way unemployment is calculated was changed in 1993ish. To see the actual numbers, go to www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data.
It looks to me like peak employment was around the beginning of 2008. Since then, it has dropped from 12% to about 20%. If you want a real scare, try this. Print up the first chart and plot the following...
Month 6=2% drop
Month 12=6% drop
Month 15=8% drop
Really scary stuff we are facing.
NewCreature
<><
NewCreature Fri Apr 3 13:52:43 2009 CDT #
azurite says:
Maybe this thread is dead by now--but if it's not- what are the odds that the US will start exporting skilled workers, in say, another year or two? Because there are greater numbers of better jobs elsewhere? I remember reading some resesarch scientists left the US during the Bush II years because of the stem cell research restrictions. They went to the UK & elsewhere. That's a small number of people, but could it increase because the US can't generate enough jobs at decent pay (I'm not talking about the Wall St. people, I'd like to see them go).
azurite Fri Apr 3 14:42:47 2009 CDT #
Comrade_Terry says:
Azurite, I don't know the answer to your question, but you've given me a mental image of a revolving door whirling in a blizzard of visas.
Comrade_Terry Fri Apr 3 14:53:05 2009 CDT #
END