Comments for Fed's Yellen: The Uncertain Economic Outlook
Jay D. says:
...........ferst..................
Jay D. Wed Mar 25 12:29:40 2009 CDT #
Mr. Holiday wanted to be 1st says:
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/03/the-new-toxic-and-bad-legacy-assets-programs-of-the-us-treasury-surreptiously-squeezing-the-tax-payer-and-the-fed-until-the-ppips-squeek/
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/03/the-new-toxic-and-bad-legacy-assets-programs-of-the-us-treasury-surreptiously-squeezing-the-tax-payer-and-the-fed-until-the-ppips-squeek/
Mr. Holiday wanted to be 1st Wed Mar 25 12:30:13 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
I love recoveries that feel like recessions. I feel like I have been in one of those for most of my career.
Nemo Wed Mar 25 12:31:03 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Janet is Fed's official mouthpiece for releasing bad news in dribs and drabs.
Crooks' agents are in the propaganda business. Pure and simple.
Jas
Jas Wed Mar 25 12:34:51 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/557517709147386189
CRbot Wed Mar 25 12:37:02 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
Hmm, no comments? JS-Kit problems?
The recent uptick in the leading economic indicators (primarily because of money supply growth) actually suggests the recession may formally "end" in the middle of the year. But an important point Yellen is getting at is that the formal definition of recession considers it over at the absolute bottom. Most people would think of a recession as "over" when employment, income, etc. have returned to pre-recession levels, which may not happen for years if the recovery is as slow and weak as the ones from 1991 and 2001.
Fair Economist Wed Mar 25 12:38:16 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
OT extra credit question - what up around 1 pm?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX#chart2:symbol=^tnx;range=1d;compare=^gspc;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+mfi+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
energyecon Wed Mar 25 12:38:17 2009 CDT #
Asun says:
If it feels like recession, and it looks like recession, then it is probably.. recovery!
Asun Wed Mar 25 12:38:25 2009 CDT #
Tupuli says:
I'll believe such forecasts when they include terms like "zombie apocalypse" and offer guidance on the production of riot gear, etc.
Tupuli Wed Mar 25 12:42:43 2009 CDT #
rocket scientist says:
1
rocket scientist Wed Mar 25 12:42:52 2009 CDT #
nova says:
I thought it was still a recession in a lot of places from the last recession.
How do I get a better font?
nova Wed Mar 25 12:44:07 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Japan Caught In Deflationary Spiral; Exports Plunge, Prices To Follow
CRbot Wed Mar 25 12:44:18 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
How many forecasters have been even in the ball-park with either their growth rate calls or levels?
poic.v20 Wed Mar 25 12:45:04 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
NEMO
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Wed Mar 25 12:45:43 2009 CDT #
MaryAnn says:
Yep, CR has finanally just quit working at 12:44 CST.
MaryAnn Wed Mar 25 12:45:45 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
elmo
bearly Wed Mar 25 12:45:52 2009 CDT #
TakeDaMoneyAndRun says:
Still not a nice picture
TakeDaMoneyAndRun Wed Mar 25 12:46:17 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
I can't be first. I read the whole post - I can't be first.
popeye Wed Mar 25 12:46:35 2009 CDT #
Angry Saver says:
<i>and it will still feel like a recession to many people.</i> - CR
Add in the loss of wealth from the housing and stock markets and it will feel like a depression to many people.
And remember, enjoy your underwater home during the depression. The home ower society!
Angry Saver Wed Mar 25 12:47:34 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
i think comments are broken
only about 2% of posts seem to be going through
citiprank Wed Mar 25 12:48:24 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
....................ferst.........................
Jay D. Wed Mar 25 12:49:03 2009 CDT #
Broker says:
I could have been first.
Broker Wed Mar 25 12:49:27 2009 CDT #
double inverse recession says:
Where are all the comments?
"I would expect the unemployment rate to be above its full-employment level. So I wouldn’t call this a particularly rosy scenario."
These forecasts never take into account that the underlying trend might be changing. That could make past data quite useless. I'm not dooming or mad-maxing but take a leap and assume that credit also caused unsustainably low unemployment rates. There are many jobs that existed via excess disposable income (aka credit). How can those jobs exist without credit? Who is going to lend like they used to? At the same time, a higher unemployment rate is a great way to get human capital into critical industries (domestic energy efficiency/sustainability, materials science and education) at what might, in the past, have been considered low wages.
Harsh, but every black cloud has a silver lining.
double inverse recession Wed Mar 25 12:50:48 2009 CDT #
wally says:
And you might add that a year from now the effects will finally be intensifying for governments, for educational institutions, for pension funds... for those things with income cycles that lag the business cycle.
At that point they will be in dire need of funds from a government long since tapped out by support of business buddies and big contributors.
wally Wed Mar 25 12:54:32 2009 CDT #
Max says:
test
Max Wed Mar 25 12:56:20 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
first
Nemo Wed Mar 25 12:56:51 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
Wow even CR Bot can't post
Comrade Kristina Wed Mar 25 12:57:13 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
From May of last year:
Derivatives, including those based on debt, currencies, commodities, stocks and interest rates, expanded 44 percent from the previous year to $596 trillion, the Basel, Switzerland-based bank said in a report today. The amount of credit-default swaps protecting investors against losses on bonds and loans more than doubled to cover a notional $58 trillion of debt.
>> Now the story is: Toxic Assets Were Hidden Assets
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123793811398132049.html
Today's global crisis -- a loss on paper of more than $50 trillion in stocks, real estate, commodities and operational earnings within 15 months -- cannot be explained only by the default on a meager 7% of subprime mortgages (worth probably no more than $1 trillion) that triggered it. The real villain is the lack of trust in the paper on which they -- and all other assets -- are printed. If we don't restore trust in paper, the next default -- on credit cards or student loans -- will trigger another collapse in paper and bring the world economy to its knees.
If you think about it, everything of value we own travels on property paper. At the beginning of the decade there was about $100 trillion worth of property paper representing tangible goods such as land, buildings, and patents world-wide, and some $170 trillion representing ownership over such semiliquid assets as mortgages, stocks and bonds. Since then, however, aggressive financiers have manufactured what the Bank for International Settlements estimates to be $1 quadrillion worth of new derivatives (mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, and credit default swaps) that have flooded the market.
Anonymous Wed Mar 25 12:57:15 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
"it takes less than many people think for real GDP growth rates to turn positive"
True, all it would take is massive inflation not captured in the official statistics.
Nemo Wed Mar 25 12:57:24 2009 CDT #
calmo says:
It really is only a few months until the forecasted Bottom makes an appearance.
But sadly, it is not the spanking new day we were all expecting...just an arrest from the somewhat lengthy adjustment period.
They call it Stormy Monday...not a tune to teach you the days of the week as formerly reported by non-blues fans (nor quixotic references to large flying scavengers). Possibly a broken record before you get to Friday, but this version, decidedly a Friday cut:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVR8lg1YLuc
calmo Wed Mar 25 13:00:19 2009 CDT #
nincompoop says:
I can't simply understand with unemployment increasing to or through 2010 what is supposed to bring this receession to an end?
nincompoop Wed Mar 25 16:32:57 2009 CDT #
Sekar says:
Without MEW, the US economy has been in an employment recession since 2000.
Sekar Wed Mar 25 17:33:43 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Another thing to remember that residential investment is now a much smaller part of the economy, so a 10% decline in Residential investment has less than half the impact that a 10% decine in residential investment would have had a few years ago.
Dirk van Dijk Wed Mar 25 19:47:35 2009 CDT #
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